USCE 2023: Please let them shove a camera up your butt

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USCE 2023: Please let them shove a camera up your butt

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zoux: Apr 28, 2006

I think for a lot of people, and kudos to Republicans for somehow making this indelible connection, a bad economy is when a Democrat is president. I don't know that I've ever seen a Democratic candidate outpoll a Republican on "better for the economy" in my life, even Donald Trump, who is a moron and has publicly failed and declared bankruptcy multiple times, was always "better on the economy". I think that economic matters are very difficult to measure and understand and people have just decided on a better shorthand, because it sure as poo poo isn't based on empirical observation, the opposite actually.

# ? Jun 14, 2023 19:49

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# ? May 25, 2024 19:45

aw frig aw dang it: Jun 1, 2018

shocked to read that chronic D&D posters got stuffed in a garbage can & called names

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Jun 14, 2023 19:50

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

zoux posted:

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1669003628848336899

Next weeks polls: Americans Say Economy "Worse Than Weimar Germany", Rate Own Situation as "Insanely Excellent"

It's mostly good news, but GDP growth is still estimated to only be about 1%.

Recession and dramatic economic growth both seem to be off the table (barring some unforeseen situation that changes the global economy like the invention of the internet or covid) and things are trending better, but slowly.

From a political perspective, people tend to react to rapid change better than actual overall change. People in 1984 weren't actually much better off than they were in 1976, but they were much better off than they were in 1982 and the rapid recovery made Reagan insanely popular. Getting slowly better with no major changes for a while probably isn't going to advantage anyone politically in 2024.

From an economic perspective, chugging along with mild improvement isn't that bad. If unemployment stays near record lows and wage growth keeps up, then most people will have real wage growth that outpaces the last two years of inflation. But, there is still going to be a catching up period (which is where we are right now) where inflation is still stinging people and real wage growth hasn't fully covered the last two years of inflation for many people.

Regardless, it is still good news that the predictions of a major recession in the first half of 2023 from last year were avoided. If people are still saying they are concerned about the overall state of the economy (but feeling generally better about their personal situation), then the slow pace of growth and inflation may still bother them and make it hard to feel like there have been any improvements.

The economic data and polling the last few years basically broke everyone's predictions for how things are "supposed" to work, so it will be interesting to see how a return to a more "standard" slow-to-moderate growth makes people feel. We're still in kind of a weird situation with 1996-levels of employment, 2002-2005 levels of GDP growth, and a weird halfway point with inflation.

# ? Jun 14, 2023 19:52

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

zoux posted:

I think for a lot of people, and kudos to Republicans for somehow making this indelible connection, a bad economy is when a Democrat is president. I don't know that I've ever seen a Democratic candidate outpoll a Republican on "better for the economy" in my life, even Donald Trump, who is a moron and has publicly failed and declared bankruptcy multiple times, was always "better on the economy". I think that economic matters are very difficult to measure and understand and people have just decided on a better shorthand, because it sure as poo poo isn't based on empirical observation, the opposite actually.

Obama did in 2008 and Clinton did in 1996.

# ? Jun 14, 2023 19:53

Boris Galerkin: Dec 17, 2011; I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!

zoux posted:

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1669003628848336899

Next weeks polls: Americans Say Economy "Worse Than Weimar Germany", Rate Own Situation as "Insanely Excellent"

This is good news and all but unless it has an effect on my groceries and other living expenses I literally don�t give a poo poo because it sounds like it just applies to rich people.

# ? Jun 14, 2023 19:54

BlankSystemDaemon: Mar 13, 2009

zoux posted:

I think for a lot of people, and kudos to Republicans for somehow making this indelible connection, a bad economy is when a Democrat is president. I don't know that I've ever seen a Democratic candidate outpoll a Republican on "better for the economy" in my life, even Donald Trump, who is a moron and has publicly failed and declared bankruptcy multiple times, was always "better on the economy". I think that economic matters are very difficult to measure and understand and people have just decided on a better shorthand, because it sure as poo poo isn't based on empirical observation, the opposite actually.

Isn't that entirely based on how things were before Reagan, who completely turned that poo poo around and made a giant deficit that Republicans have been trying to up ever since?

# ? Jun 14, 2023 19:54

volts5000: Apr 7, 2009; It's electric. Boogie woogie woogie.

Captain_Maclaine posted:

In mine, fighting back bought you a little breathing space, then you got hauled in for fighting and sanctimoniously lectured about "how it takes two to tango" and other such boomer bullshit.

drat! Trauma memory unlocked.

aw frig aw dang it posted:

shocked to read that chronic D&D posters got stuffed in a garbage can & called names

Getting suckerpunched in the middle school lobby in front of god and everybody, to then see the guy get suspended for the rest of the school year (which totaled to one day) really informed my politics.

volts5000 fucked around with this message at 20:37 on Jun 14, 2023

# ? Jun 14, 2023 19:57

Velocity Raptor: Jul 27, 2007; I MADE A PROMISE
I'LL DO ANYTHING

cat botherer posted:

https://twitter.com/thewarzonewire/status/1668690374020448257

The F-35 continues to be a giant embarassing farce/grift. As it says, these planes are going into storage until the Technology Refresh 3 upgrades are ironed out.

Related to this, the F-35's engine has been under-specced since the beginning. The main issue there is the need for a lot of bleed air to cool avionics, but this extra demand causes the engine to run too hot. That induces premature wear and reliability problems - which is a big deal when you only have one engine. The TR-3 upgrades will exacerbate this problem.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/f-35-engine-running-too-hot-due-to-under-speccing-upgrade-now-vital

I know the MIC will keep the gravy train rolling for as long as it can, but at point does the Air Force finally decide to scrap this over-engineered failure?

# ? Jun 14, 2023 19:59

Ghost Leviathan: Mar 2, 2017; Exploration is ill-advised.

Velocity Raptor posted:

I know the MIC will keep the gravy train rolling for as long as it can, but at point does the Air Force finally decide to scrap this over-engineered failure?

When the contractors make an even more profitably useless one.

# ? Jun 14, 2023 20:00

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Velocity Raptor posted:

I know the MIC will keep the gravy train rolling for as long as it can, but at point does the Air Force finally decide to scrap this over-engineered failure?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_cost#Fallacy_effect

# ? Jun 14, 2023 20:02

Main Paineframe: Oct 27, 2010

Ither posted:

The way kids are allowed to abuse each other in US schools baffles me.

Take the "classic" stuffing someone in a locker.

If that happened with adults, that would be assault.

But because its kids, its often treated as a joke.

It's not actually allowed, but the understaffed and underpaid teaching staff who have angry parents nitpicking their every move generally aren't able to stop it. The kids do the more overt bullying where the adults aren't watching, and investigating it after the fact is difficult.

# ? Jun 14, 2023 20:03

Skippy McPants: Mar 19, 2009

Ghost Leviathan posted:

When the contractors make an even more profitably useless one.

They're already planning for this. Some of their ideas include heavily upgraded and modified F-35s used as the control point for multiple unmanned suites of missiles and drones. Because barring a major peer conflict, it'll still be a few generations before fighter pilots accept their obsolescence.

# ? Jun 14, 2023 20:05

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

Velocity Raptor posted:

I know the MIC will keep the gravy train rolling for as long as it can, but at point does the Air Force finally decide to scrap this over-engineered failure?

It's a jobs program. It's the same reason that the army actually said to congress, "Please, stop buying tanks. We have so many and it is now eating into our budget because we have to store so many and build new warehouses to hold them."

Then, every congressperson with a part made in their district fought to make sure they actually send them even more tanks than before.

# ? Jun 14, 2023 20:09

World Famous W: May 25, 2007; BAAAAAAAAAAAA

aw frig aw dang it posted:

shocked to read that chronic D&D posters got stuffed in a garbage can & called names

going to give you a swirlie

# ? Jun 14, 2023 20:09

Shooting Blanks: Jun 6, 2007; Real bullets mess up how cool this thing looks.

-Blade

Skippy McPants posted:

They're already planning for this. Some of their ideas include heavily upgraded and modified F-35s used as the control point for multiple unmanned suites of missiles and drones. Because barring a major peer conflict, it'll still be a few generations before fighter pilots accept their obsolescence.

There have already been test flights using autonomous F-16s. They've also taken part in simulated dogfights against human pilots and the AI did extremely well, according to reports. We're not there yet but it may be a faster approaching future than many expect.

# ? Jun 14, 2023 20:15

Shifty Pony: Dec 28, 2004; Up ta somethin'

Captain_Maclaine posted:

Seemed to be a boomer thing that victims were expected to accept their part and take the abuse, not fight back and disturb the natural order of things.

Here's the thing: "ignore it and it will go away" works from the perspective of the school administration and teachers. Dealing with the issue now takes a lot of work and involves a lot of people being mad at them, but if they can get the victim to just take it for a couple years the problem magically disappears at graduation or the end of the school year.

# ? Jun 14, 2023 20:15

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

Stocks started to shoot up when Powell announced that they were skipping a rate increase for the first time today, but then they fell back down when he said they still plan to do two more rate increases this year.

tl;dr of the new data and announcement:

Good news on employment
- Good news on wage gains
- Mediocre news on GDP growth
- Uncertainty on how quickly inflation will fall
- Mildly bad news on "sticky" areas of inflation and food prices particularly

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1669043415701438467

quote:

The Federal Reserve is leaving interest rates unchanged for the first time since spring 2022, signaling a new chapter in the central bank�s fraught fight against inflation.

The decision at the end of the Fed�s two-day policy meeting on Wednesday was widely expected, after a long run of rate hikes pushed the central bank�s benchmark rate up by five percentage points in 15 months. The Fed also signaled more rate hikes would come before the end of the year, according to economic projections also released Wednesday, though it was unclear when exactly those increases might happen.

�In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments,� a Fed statement said.

Fed officials release new economic forecasts every few months, and the most recent ones appear slightly more optimistic than they were in March. Officials now expect the economy to grow 1 percent this year (compared to 0.4 percent before), and for the unemployment rate to end the year at 4.1 percent (compared to 4.5 percent). Using the Fed�s preferred gauge, inflation is also expected to improve slightly. However, officials are now more pessimistic on �core inflation,� a narrower measure that strips out volatile categories like food and energy, and that can be hardest to root out of the economy.

All 11 members of the Fed�s policy committee voted in support of Wednesday�s decision.

Major stock indexes sank into the red immediately after the Fed�s announcement. Just after 2 p.m., the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 306 points, or 0.81 percent. The S&P 500 index fell 0.28 percent, and the Nasdaq 0.31 percent.

The central bank has been sprinting to catch up to higher-than-normal inflation with 10 consecutive rate hikes, moving at the fastest pace in decades. Officials have long warned that they cannot let up prematurely, saying such a mistake would let inflation become entrenched � and force an even harder clampdown to slow the economy.

But when the Fed hoisted its benchmark policy rate to the highest level in 16 years last month, it leaned toward a pause next. The idea is to get a chance to evaluate how central bankers� moves over the past year are affecting the economy in real time. Rate hikes operate with a lag, and with the federal funds rate now at a level between 5 and 5.25 percent, the full scope of high borrowing costs may not be felt until later this year or even 2024.

People are spending less on hotels, flights and restaurants

The open question is how officials will judge their inflation fight moving forward. Fresh government data released Tuesday showed some progress on inflation � but also signs that some of the stickiest reasons for high prices just aren�t budging.

�All eyes will be on them and what they communicate,� said Wendy Edelberg, director of the Hamilton Project and a senior fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution.

As Fed examines banking woes, small businesses already feel the crunch

Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell is discussing the decision at a news conference Wednesday afternoon, where he�ll probably get questions on the inflation outlook; whether the Fed will push borrowing costs higher later on; and if he expects a recession. In recent remarks signaling no June hike, Powell said that �having come this far, we can afford to look at the data and the evolving outlook and make careful assessments.�

Powell may also be questioned on the strength of the banking system, parts of which needed a swift government rescue after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March. While the crisis appears to be contained, the shock caused small- and medium-size banks to pull back on lending and turn businesses away. In recent months, banking sector stress has also shot up as a concern for stability in the financial system, according to a Fed survey on major risks to the economy.

How the Fed�s rate hikes slow the economy � and impact you

Policymakers have made clear that they have to make decisions about the economy meeting-by-meeting, because there is still so much uncertainty clouding the path ahead.

In a recent speech, Fed governor Philip Jefferson, who has been nominated to the Fed�s No. 2 role, said he expected spending economic growth to be �quite slow� through 2023, because of tight financial conditions, low consumer sentiment and a decline in household savings that had built up during the pandemic. But plenty of questions remain.

�While it is reasonable to expect that the recent banking stress events will lead banks to tighten credit standards further, the amount of tightening and the magnitude of the effect such tightening might have on the U.S. economy is not yet clear, and this uncertainty complicates economic forecasts,� Jefferson said.

For all the questions, the economy is showing plenty of strength. Employers added a whopping 339,000 jobs in May, marking the 29th straight month of strong job growth. Analysts keep having to push back their forecasts for a looming recession. And even though Americans are spending less on restaurants, hotels and airlines, that might actually help the Fed�s attempts to curb prices in services industries, which have been especially susceptible to labor shortages.

Some Fed critics began pushing for a pause last year, warning that the Fed was outrunning inflation. Their argument was that in doling out whopping, consecutive rate hikes, the Fed was moving too forcefully � and overcorrecting for past mistakes.

The Fed saw it differently, insisting that it had to get rates high enough to meaningfully slow the economy. Still, Powell will be pressed to explain why the Fed decided against a rate hike this month, and what gives officials confidence that their choices won�t backfire down the line.

�Even if the Fed does pause its inflation battle this month, it�s likely to be a temporary timeout,� ADP�s chief economist, Nela Richardson, wrote in a blog post this week. �But in the long run, there�s still work to be done to get inflation down to the central bank�s 2 percent target, and businesses should be prepared for the possibility of more rate increases down the road.�

# ? Jun 14, 2023 20:18

Captain_Maclaine: Sep 30, 2001; Every moment that I'm alive, I pray for death!

Shifty Pony posted:

Here's the thing: "ignore it and it will go away" works from the perspective of the school administration and teachers. Dealing with the issue now takes a lot of work and involves a lot of people being mad at them, but if they can get the victim to just take it for a couple years the problem magically disappears at graduation or the end of the school year.

Yeah that one was loving bullshit too. Transparently "I don't want to deal with this, so I'll just ignore it until it goes away" with a side "and actually it's your fault for reacting to getting harassed/abused/literally attacked, you're just too sensitive!"

# ? Jun 14, 2023 20:24

Professor Beetus: Apr 12, 2007; They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

USEN: goon bullying victim support group

# ? Jun 14, 2023 20:31

Jaxyon: Mar 7, 2016; I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

aw frig aw dang it posted:

shocked to read that chronic D&D posters got stuffed in a garbage can & called names

They definitely deserved it for being *check notes* gay?

Learning things here

# ? Jun 14, 2023 20:45

DeadlyMuffin: Jul 3, 2007

Jaxyon posted:

They definitely deserved it for being *check notes* gay?

Learning things here

Help, I rolled my eyes so hard that they went backwards and now I'm blind!

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Stocks started to shoot up when Powell announced that they were skipping a rate increase for the first time today, but then they fell back down when he said they still plan to do two more rate increases this year.

tl;dr of the new data and announcement:

Good news on employment
- Good news on wage gains
- Mediocre news on GDP growth
- Uncertainty on how quickly inflation will fall
- Mildly bad news on "sticky" areas of inflation and food prices particularly

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1669043415701438467

I see this as caving to pressure rather than a reflection of improvement, but maybe I'm being overly pessimistic. If inflation is still well above the target, why let up?

# ? Jun 14, 2023 20:50

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

DeadlyMuffin posted:

I see this as caving to pressure rather than a reflection of improvement, but maybe I'm being overly pessimistic. If inflation is still well above the target, why let up?

The projection for GDP growth was raised from 0.4% to 1%, the unemployment prediction was revised from 4.5% to 4.1%, the inflation rate was revised to 3.1% from 3.5%, and there is no projected recession in 2023.

Those are all improvements over the previous estimates.

# ? Jun 14, 2023 20:52

haveblue: Aug 15, 2005; Toilet Rascal

They're trying to come in for a soft landing on trend and policy changes take months to percolate through the economy, allowing the metrics to overshoot would also be bad or at least against their mission

# ? Jun 14, 2023 20:56

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

DeadlyMuffin posted:

Help, I rolled my eyes so hard that they went backwards and now I'm blind!

I see this as caving to pressure rather than a reflection of improvement, but maybe I'm being overly pessimistic. If inflation is still well above the target, why let up?

the indicators lag the actual economic effects, and the actual economic effects lag the rate hikes. if the fed keeps cutting right up until they meet their inflation target they will for sure overshoot. yoy inflation has cooled significantly, not to mention there's still the specter of this year's regional bank crisis in the back of everyone's minds, to me it seems prudent to pause

# ? Jun 14, 2023 20:56

plogo: Jan 20, 2009

DeadlyMuffin posted:

Help, I rolled my eyes so hard that they went backwards and now I'm blind!

I see this as caving to pressure rather than a reflection of improvement, but maybe I'm being overly pessimistic. If inflation is still well above the target, why let up?

The fed funds rate is above inflation, so many people would consider that monetary tightening even if rates are not raised further. For example, in a lot of new keynesian models one of the conditions for a determinate price level (i.e. not explosives inflation) is a central bank monetary rule that holds the short rate above inflation.

Sorry for the jargon, but I would impress upon you that rates at this level are probably still contractionary.

Also, powell said they plan to hike twice more before the year ends and the market consensus going into today was a pause today and a hike in July.

# ? Jun 14, 2023 21:02

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

Skippy McPants posted:

It's a Pavlovian response. The past twenty years have taught us all to cushion ourselves with cynicism in anticipation of an impending sucker punch.

I don�t think we�ve suffered any more sucker punches than people did, say, 1963-1975 but people were still capable of appreciating the moon landing.

zoux posted:

I think for a lot of people, and kudos to Republicans for somehow making this indelible connection, a bad economy is when a Democrat is president.

The media doesn�t help this by reporting public opinion of the economy as if it wasn�t a strict partisan divide. �Oh, 70% of Americans think the economy is bad!� - well, 50% are going to tell you it�s bad no matter what, because to quote Abe Simpson, the president is a Demmy Crat!

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

The economic data and polling the last few years basically broke everyone's predictions for how things are "supposed" to work, so it will be interesting to see how a return to a more "standard" slow-to-moderate growth makes people feel.

It will be interesting whenever it happens, which is not necessarily soon because that�s only what the people who can�t make predictions for poo poo anymore are saying is going to happen!

Boris Galerkin posted:

This is good news and all but unless it has an effect on my groceries and other living expenses I literally don�t give a poo poo because it sounds like it just applies to rich people.

I can�t think of anything that would possibly have more of an effect on your living expenses than inflation falling. I mean� is that not exactly what inflation measures? :confused:

DeadlyMuffin posted:

I see this as caving to pressure rather than a reflection of improvement, but maybe I'm being overly pessimistic. If inflation is still well above the target, why let up?

Rate hikes hurt people and slow growth, the target is arbitrary, and inflation is already falling so might as well see if it continues to.

IMO the Fed has reached the conclusion that they wanted to re: rate hikes because they can hurt the labor market and wages and tell themselves they�re �fighting inflation�. I bet Powell is furious that there isn�t going to be a recession.

aw frig aw dang it posted:

shocked to read that chronic D&D posters got stuffed in a garbage can & called names

Posters you don�t like have childhood trauma! LOL!

# ? Jun 14, 2023 21:11

Fork of Unknown Origins: Oct 21, 2005; Gotta Herd On?

Mellow Seas posted:

is that not exactly what inflation measures?

Inflation falling means things are getting worse at a slower rate, which is good. But it doesn�t mean things are getting better, which as lovely as things have gotten is a tough thing to be ok with.

# ? Jun 14, 2023 21:14

deoju: Jul 11, 2004; All the pieces matter.; Nap Ghost

Civilized Fishbot posted:

Yeah GLBT used to be more common which is how you get stuff like:

That happens sometimes when an organization keeps their name despite vocabulary changing. National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, United Negro College Fund, every union named a Brotherhood.

# ? Jun 14, 2023 21:15

Star Man: Jun 1, 2008; There's a star maaaaaan
Over the rainbow

Professor Beetus posted:

USEN: goon bullying victim support group

We probably deserved it. I know I deserved it and worse.

# ? Jun 14, 2023 21:15

World Famous W: May 25, 2007; BAAAAAAAAAAAA

the secret was to bully the bullies before the bullies bullied you

# ? Jun 14, 2023 21:20

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

Velocity Raptor posted:

I know the MIC will keep the gravy train rolling for as long as it can, but at point does the Air Force finally decide to scrap this over-engineered failure?

I think the argument is that all the A10, F16, F18, AV8, Harrier and Sea Harrier airframes are aging and too expensive to upgrade beyond a certain point. Upgrading the avionics of those older planes beyond a certain point might also not be a cost-effective option. Better stealth design is more important than ever too. War has changed enough that you're probably better off moving forward with the F35 instead of trying to keeping all this older stuff from the 70s and 80s going.

I'm of two minds about all that.

# ? Jun 14, 2023 21:20

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

Fork of Unknown Origins posted:

Inflation falling means things are getting worse at a slower rate, which is good. But it doesn�t mean things are getting better, which as lovely as things have gotten is a tough thing to be ok with.

Inflation isn�t inherently bad, or an indicator of things �getting worse,� though. If wages are growing faster than inflation - and they haven�t over the last 18 months overall but they are right now - then it�s copacetic.

We had no inflation for basically the entire Obama presidency and that caused its own set of problems. Japan has gotten wrecked by deflation in the last 30 years. (I have to imagine deflation REALLY sucks if you�re in debt.) I don�t have enough of an Econ background to explain the exact mechanisms but 2% inflation is �ideal� and I think even 4% would be fine if it was steady. Hell that was the target rate until� the 90s, I wanna say?

# ? Jun 14, 2023 21:23

Rigel: Nov 11, 2016

zoux posted:

I think for a lot of people, and kudos to Republicans for somehow making this indelible connection, a bad economy is when a Democrat is president. I don't know that I've ever seen a Democratic candidate outpoll a Republican on "better for the economy" in my life, even Donald Trump, who is a moron and has publicly failed and declared bankruptcy multiple times, was always "better on the economy". I think that economic matters are very difficult to measure and understand and people have just decided on a better shorthand, because it sure as poo poo isn't based on empirical observation, the opposite actually.

The economy was perceived by voters as by far the single biggest strength for Bill Clinton, to the point where a lot of people voted for him for reelection despite thinking he was immoral.

# ? Jun 14, 2023 21:26

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

Mellow Seas posted:

Inflation isn�t inherently bad, or an indicator of things �getting worse,� though. If wages are growing faster than inflation - and they haven�t over the last 18 months overall but they are right now - then it�s copacetic.

We had no inflation for basically the entire Obama presidency and that caused its own set of problems. Japan has gotten wrecked by deflation in the last 30 years. I don�t have enough of an Econ background to explain the exact mechanisms but 2% inflation is �ideal� and I think even 4% would be fine if it was steady. Hell that was the target rate until� the 90s, I wanna say?

the 2% target has no concrete mechanism behind it, it was basically chosen as a good enough number based on a historical study of outcomes under different rates. it was only fairly recently that they fed even explicitly set a target, greenspan was considered surprisingly communicative when he began suggesting that the fed had a vague target in mind when making decisions. the level of communication by todays fed on it's reasoning and intentions would be completely unheard of even 20 years ago

# ? Jun 14, 2023 21:29

Killer robot: Sep 6, 2010; I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!; Pillbug

Mellow Seas posted:

Inflation isn�t inherently bad, or an indicator of things �getting worse,� though. If wages are growing faster than inflation - and they haven�t over the last 18 months overall but they are right now - then it�s copacetic.

We had no inflation for basically the entire Obama presidency and that caused its own set of problems. Japan has gotten wrecked by deflation in the last 30 years. (I have to imagine deflation REALLY sucks if you�re in debt.) I don�t have enough of an Econ background to explain the exact mechanisms but 2% inflation is �ideal� and I think even 4% would be fine if it was steady. Hell that was the target rate until� the 90s, I wanna say?

While the %2 figure seems arbitary, that much is true. Too much inflation is bad but deflation is horrible. The inflation/deflation cycles tied booms and depressions were a hallmark of the years of the gold standard. Since the money supply was still controlled by an arbitrary number, just not one that could be centrally managed.

# ? Jun 14, 2023 21:33

Liquid Communism: Mar 9, 2004; коммунизм хранится в яичках

the_steve posted:

Gods, yeah, I hated that poo poo.
Back when I was in high school, the official policy straight up said that if you defended yourself from someone attacking you, then you were just as much on the hook as the attacker would be.

Yep. That happened. It was a huge source of angst for me in middle school until I hurt a kid who jumped me bad enough nobody else tried. Luckily my Dad had my back so I didn't get the same thing at home. Being detectably Not Normal in any way as a kid in the Midwest was a trip.

Liquid Communism fucked around with this message at 21:39 on Jun 14, 2023

# ? Jun 14, 2023 21:33

Boris Galerkin: Dec 17, 2011; I don't understand why I can't harass people online. Seriously, somebody please explain why I shouldn't be allowed to stalk others on social media!

The problem is that there is a disconnect between "the economy looks to be doing better" and day-to-day life. It's like when people say "the stock market is up so the economy is up" and yes I know that stock market numbers != economy, but the messaging here is the same: the numbers are going up but there is no perceivable difference in daily life. And at the end of the day, the average person doesn't give a single poo poo about whatever metric is used to measure the economy, they only care about the number in their bank account after buying food and paying to survive.

# ? Jun 14, 2023 21:35

Edward Mass: Sep 14, 2011; 𝅘𝅥𝅮 I wanna go home with the armadillo
Good country music from Amarillo and Abilene
Friendliest people and the prettiest women you've ever seen𝅘𝅥𝅮

Senate Democrats press for Justice Department inquiry into PGA Tour-LIV Golf merger

quote:

Two top Senate Democrats with a track record of scrutinizing business and antitrust activity have called for a Justice Department investigation into the merger agreement between the PGA Tour and Saudi-funded LIV Golf.

Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Ron Wyden of Oregon asked the Justice Department to determine whether the deal to combine the two entities� commercial businesses violated the Sherman Antitrust Act.

The deal �would make a U.S. organization complicit � and force American golfers and their fans to join this complicity � in the Saudi regime�s latest attempt to sanitize its abuses by pouring funds into major sports leagues,� the lawmakers wrote in a letter Tuesday to Attorney General Merrick Garland and the DOJ�s antitrust chief, Jonathan Kanter.

�Significantly, the deal appears to have a substantial adverse impact on competition, violating several provisions of U.S. antitrust law, regardless of whether the deal is structured as a merger or some sort of joint venture,� they added.

The letter follows Connecticut Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal�s inquiries to PGA Tour Commissioner Jay Monahan and LIV Golf CEO Greg Norman for details on the merger. The PIF has previously stated intentions to use its influence in sports to further the Saudi government�s objectives, according to Blumenthal�s letter. (Monahan has taken a leave of absence to recover from an undisclosed medical condition.)

It's also been recently uncovered that the PGA couldn't withstand a prolonged legal fight, since their cash reserves are less than 8,000 times as big as the PIF's cash reserves.

# ? Jun 14, 2023 21:35

Gumball Gumption: Jan 7, 2012

Boris Galerkin posted:

The problem is that there is a disconnect between "the economy looks to be doing better" and day-to-day life. It's like when people say "the stock market is up so the economy is up" and yes I know that stock market numbers != economy, but the messaging here is the same: the numbers are going up but there is no perceivable difference in daily life. And at the end of the day, the average person doesn't give a single poo poo about whatever metric is used to measure the economy, they only care about the number in their bank account after buying food and paying to survive.

It's this and it's weird to think that people who are not excited that the stock market is doing better while their own lives are not are actually just resistant to good news. Hell, student loans restarting are one of the things helping economic numbers.

# ? Jun 14, 2023 21:41

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# ? May 25, 2024 19:45

Failed Imagineer: Sep 22, 2018

Nameless Pete posted:

It's one of those where using the definite article makes it way more offensive. "John is queer" versus "John is a queer."

This is an example of the indefinite article :colbert:

You can tell by the way it is

# ? Jun 14, 2023 21:42

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USCE 2023: Please let them shove a camera up your butt

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