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fatherboxx)
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Moon Slayer posted:The "holy poo poo, in a near-peer war we'd run out of ammo fast" realization is definitely one of the big lessons observing this war has taught the Weat. Let's check back in 2 years to see if there's some radically updated and expanded ammunition supply line.
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Jun 22, 2023 21:53
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https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/22/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-western-assessment/index.htmlquote:In its early phases, Ukraine’s counteroffensive is having less success and Russian forces are showing more competence than western assessments expected, two western officials and a senior US military official tell CNN. A rather harsh indictment 2 weeks in
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Jun 22, 2023 22:10
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That has "many people are saying" vibes. Whose assessments, specifically? Which countries? The West is not a monolith, and lots of people with no business assessing anything military cover social media with assessments.
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Jun 22, 2023 22:15
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As a military analyst (someone with access to Wikipedia and a Twitter account) I will show you a map I've drawn on in MS Paint to prove you wrong.
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Jun 22, 2023 22:20
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The way it was reported on YLE was literally "some guy" from the US government and two other unnamed persons from western governments: https://yle.fi/a/74-20010573/64-3-160635?utm_medium=social&utm_source=copy-link-share So its a clickbait, no-one sane expects 2 weeks of probing attacks to produce results when the enemy isn't running away or actively ordering withdrawing like Russia did in the earlier major battles where Ukrainian army gained ground. Der Kyhe fucked around with this message at 22:46 on Jun 22, 2023 |
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Jun 22, 2023 22:21
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I wonder if many western analysts were taking Russian incompetence for granted and how different a defensive battle is for them.
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Jun 22, 2023 22:24
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Everyone, act surprised https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-russias-vast-sanctions-evasion-secures-us-european-tech-weapons-1807939 quote:Russia is exploiting loopholes in export controls to buy vast quantities of technology from the West that it is using to fight its war against Ukraine, with much of the material passing through China, Newsweek has found. More than 60 percent of the imported critical components in Russian weapons are coming from U.S. companies.
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Jun 22, 2023 22:25
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fatherboxx posted:Everyone, act surprised Oh my god, does this mean that war profiteers are, profiteering? No-one could have seen this to happen. Enough, or should I clutch some pearls and faint?
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Jun 22, 2023 22:30
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fatherboxx posted:Everyone, act surprised FWIW this story is sourced entirely to this report, which is publicly available despite being "exclusive" to Newsweek. It's basically a press release and summary.
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Jun 22, 2023 22:35
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Chalks posted:There were two confirmed bridge hits based on satellite images, although out of how many missiles (and how many decoys) who knows. Also it's not even confirmed yet that it was Storm Shadow missiles that were used on the bridges. It's just what the Russian governor said. Some commentators are saying that a 450kg warhead should make a bigger hole in the pavement and it might have been drones instead. I'm not sure myself, I still haven't gathered more than 200kg of TNT so I could put it in a field test.
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Jun 22, 2023 22:54
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Nenonen posted:Also it's not even confirmed yet that it was Storm Shadow missiles that were used on the bridges. It's just what the Russian governor said. Some commentators are saying that a 450kg warhead should make a bigger hole in the pavement and it might have been drones instead. I'm not sure myself, I still haven't gathered more than 200kg of TNT so I could put it in a field test. Hasn't there been claimed video footage? https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1671963493954625558 Sure doesn't look like a drone to me at least. Edit: On topic of sanctions, I think nobody will be surprised that low grade electronics are still making it across and into weapon systems designed decades ago. I think the bigger impact, small comfort as it may be to the war effort, is degradation of the higher end stuff where having technical support is important (R&D, manufacturing, etc). WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 23:04 on Jun 22, 2023 |
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Jun 22, 2023 23:01
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WarpedLichen posted:Hasn't there been claimed video footage? Thanks, I missed that one. The nearby bridge can stay for now.
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Jun 22, 2023 23:11
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Ynglaur posted:That has "many people are saying" vibes. Whose assessments, specifically? Which countries? The West is not a monolith, and lots of people with no business assessing anything military cover social media with assessments. I am unsure how far CNN's journalistic practices have fallen but I wouldn't expect "senior US military official" to be a random nobody or that they would quote someone who isn't informed on the file. Nor is CNN to my knowledge in the habit of of spreading doubt on the Ukrainians when in fact I find their coverage to be quite optimistic and pro-Ukraine. I posted this since Milley himself is quoted to as saying 'it will likely take a considerable amount of time' a week earlier, hence my "harsh" qualifier. Seems like some dichotomy in opinion in US circles? VVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVV Ukraine is not a place to visit if you have any doubts about whether you should go or not. MikeC fucked around with this message at 23:23 on Jun 22, 2023 |
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Jun 22, 2023 23:15
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So, my dad visited Ukraine and delivered some humanitarian aid. He has asked if I wanted to join him on his next trip, whenever that will be. I think he visited the Lutsk area if memory serves me right. I am wondering if anyone here knows how dangerous it would be to go there? We wouldn’t stay there for too long, under a day. Basically we’d go in, drop off the gear and chat a bit, and get the gently caress out. He says it’s perfectly fine but he’s… the kind of a person who will drive to a war zone to drop off poo poo and I don’t want to rely only on his word  I have tried to figure it out and it would seem that Russia has nothing left that they could hit Lutsk with anymore, and statistically I would probably more likely die several times over in a car crash during the drive, but now that the trip is approaching and becoming more likely every week that passes, I have started to have a quite visceral worry about visiting a war zone. It would seem that at least in October last year they hit Lutsk with missiles in a way that broke the news threshold. The border stations are something I am especially worried that could be a target, as it has a lot of people in line. Basically, I’d like to help out but don’t want my balls to get kinzhal’d. So yeah, does anyone know what Russia could bomb Western Ukraine with at this point, and if they have been bombing it lately? I haven't been able to find out for sure.
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Jun 22, 2023 23:21
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Yeah if you're not 100% on board mentally, just don't go. Best case you'll be a bundle of nerves and no help to anyone.
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Jun 22, 2023 23:25
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Keisari posted:Basically, I’d like to help out but don’t want my balls to get kinzhal’d. So yeah, does anyone know what Russia could bomb Western Ukraine with at this point, and if they have been bombing it lately? I haven't been able to find out for sure. I think you will have a higher chance of getting killed in an accident with some Polish drunk driver or food poisoning at a service station than by being hit by a missile. How many western aid workers in western Ukraine do you think have been killed by Russian missiles so far?
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Jun 22, 2023 23:36
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Don't go if your presence will be a net negative contribution. Better to just stay home and support them with donations or something similar. If my friends or parents asked me to go, I'd say no too.
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Jun 22, 2023 23:40
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:not an super knowledgeable, but it could be a question of aspect. the thermal image looks like they're firing to intercept from roughly 45 degree angle, while the kinzhals were targeted at the patriot batteries themselves and presumably offered a more head on intercept. it's easier to get in front of something coming directly at you than to get in front of something that's quickly going to be moving away from you The Pantsir specifically hasn't had a stellar service record. It got hit by Israeli slowboat loitering munitions in Syria (despite engaging them in a few cases), got caught seemingly unawares by Turkish drones and drone-launched ATGMs repeatedly in Northern Syria and Ukraine, and in general has failed to shoot down cruise missiles, artillery rockets, and drones. Internally before the war Russian air defense crews had criticized it on social media for being awful at engaging low altitude or smaller targets compared to the Tor.
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Jun 23, 2023 01:56
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That's a good bit of comedy, I thought the birds were the missiles
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Jun 23, 2023 04:19
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Vaginaface posted:That's a good bit of comedy, I thought the birds were the missiles
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Jun 23, 2023 04:24
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Vaginaface posted:That's a good bit of comedy, I thought the birds were the missiles Same. And also having the watermark fly in on the same vector as the missile was not the best decision.
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Jun 23, 2023 05:01
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Moon Slayer posted:The "holy poo poo, in a near-peer war we'd run out of ammo fast" realization is definitely one of the big lessons observing this war has taught the Weat. This has been the lesson of every war since 1914
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Jun 23, 2023 06:07
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Henrik Zetterberg posted:Same. And also having the watermark fly in on the same vector as the missile was not the best decision. Well, yeah, that's so you can't crop their watermark out of just the moneyshot.
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Jun 23, 2023 06:26
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Nenonen posted:Map for reference Modern bridges build in Europe in the 60's 70's about 35Te every 2+m per lane or if you have a 100m span bridge resting on concrete piles, like 600te total would be just within safety margins. 4 lane bridge. Orions Lord fucked around with this message at 09:49 on Jun 23, 2023 |
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Jun 23, 2023 09:47
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Bad news for cetacean animal welfare - Russia, which also uses beluga whales and seals for mission, has almost doubled its investment in its fleet of trained bottlenose dolphins https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...f08657ec7321373 Russia nearly doubles floating mammal pens thought to contain trained bottlenose dolphins 2h ago 07.30 BST Russia has almost doubled its floating mammal pens in Sevastopol, according to British defence officials, and they are “highly likely” to contain trained bottlenose dolphins. In its latest intelligence briefing, the Ministry of Defence said it believed the animals were intended to counter enemy divers. The Russian navy, which also uses beluga whales and seals for missions, has invested heavily in its Black Sea fleet’s main base since last summer.
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Jun 23, 2023 09:50
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Moon Slayer posted:Yeah if you're not 100% on board mentally, just don't go. Best case you'll be a bundle of nerves and no help to anyone. MikeC posted:I am unsure how far CNN's journalistic practices have fallen but I wouldn't expect "senior US military official" to be a random nobody or that they would quote someone who isn't informed on the file. Nor is CNN to my knowledge in the habit of of spreading doubt on the Ukrainians when in fact I find their coverage to be quite optimistic and pro-Ukraine. I posted this since Milley himself is quoted to as saying 'it will likely take a considerable amount of time' a week earlier, hence my "harsh" qualifier. Seems like some dichotomy in opinion in US circles? enigma74 posted:Don't go if your presence will be a net negative contribution. Better to just stay home and support them with donations or something similar. If my friends or parents asked me to go, I'd say no too. Yeah, these are good points. Nenonen posted:I think you will have a higher chance of getting killed in an accident with some Polish drunk driver or food poisoning at a service station than by being hit by a missile. How many western aid workers in western Ukraine do you think have been killed by Russian missiles so far? This is the funny thing, I wholeheartedly agree that the chance is absurdly low compared to the chance of getting killed in a traffic accident on the way. Even inside Ukraine, dying in a car crash is assuredly far more likely than getting smoked by fascists. But it's funny how you can be taken over by an irrational (perhaps rational?) fear when push comes to shove. The feeling is hard to explain, but it feels a bit like fear of flight if you've ever had it. You know the chance is very low, but the thought of ending up in a plane crash can be terrifying. It's irrational and you know it. Man I can only wonder how the Ukrainians feel. On the other hand, my dad said that the experience was kinda surreal, people lived their lives pretty normally, children walked to school on their own and so on. In Lutsk, that is. It's really sad that you get used to that kind of existential dread. All-in-all, I'll keep an eye on if Western Ukraine gets any strikes or not and see how I feel about it when the time comes. And I'll be very careful around Polish gas stations if I muster the courage (and time off work, the trip takes a week after all) to go.  Thanks for the posts, I probably won't whip myself as much if I do end up chickening out.
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Jun 23, 2023 10:23
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Warbadger posted:The Pantsir specifically hasn't had a stellar service record. It got hit by Israeli slowboat loitering munitions in Syria (despite engaging them in a few cases), got caught seemingly unawares by Turkish drones and drone-launched ATGMs repeatedly in Northern Syria and Ukraine, and in general has failed to shoot down cruise missiles, artillery rockets, and drones. Internally before the war Russian air defense crews had criticized it on social media for being awful at engaging low altitude or smaller targets compared to the Tor. Also a long service of shittiness in Libya despite trained crews.
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Jun 23, 2023 10:29
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Let's check back in 2 years to see if there's some radically updated and expanded ammunition supply line. They've already paid for it (~$30 billion). https://news.yahoo.com/us-plans-dramatically-expand-155mm-200500634.html And not just 155mm shells either. https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2023/03/13/pentagon-budget-aims-to-max-munitions-production-make-multiyear-buys/ Factories and equipment don't get put into place overnight unfortunately so 2yr or so is about the timeline generally being given for all this to come online.
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Jun 23, 2023 11:23
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More talk of Ukraine possibly crossing the pre feb fortifications lines, this time from looking at where Russia are focusing their artillery https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1672229012201000962
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Jun 23, 2023 14:12
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A quick and dirty overview 3 weeks in. https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1672055675248340992
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Jun 23, 2023 14:57
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Keisari posted:
I mean, that’s not really sad, kind of the opposite? It would be way more sad if the 20 million or whatever people in Western Ukraine lived paralyzed in fear and kept their children in basements because a missile falls within 10 km of their house once every few months. It’s lovely that happens but spending their next five years living in a cave is a worse option. Based on your way of thinking about it in vocabulary used ("chicken out") I would agree to not go. I don’t even get the point anyway of going to deliver supplies, just use DHL or whatever. If you want to go and your around and support the local hotel and restaurant industry and see Western Ukraine then that’s fine too, it’s not like you’re visiting a direct disaster zone where every resource you take is a resource not going to a needy local.
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Jun 23, 2023 15:16
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Saladman posted:I mean, that’s not really sad, kind of the opposite? It would be way more sad if the 20 million or whatever people in Western Ukraine lived paralyzed in fear and kept their children in basements because a missile falls within 10 km of their house once every few months. It’s lovely that happens but spending their next five years living in a cave is a worse option. You can DHL poo poo in?  but of course you can. I have no idea why I thought you couldn't. Lmao. Well that's good to know.Perhaps I was unclear what I meant, I meant it's sad that people have had to live with such dangers for so long they have gotten used to it. Definitely good that people aren't terrified 24/7. Like, when I saw a 6 year old kid interviewed about getting harrassed by racists and them replying nonchalantly "You get used to it" it made me literally cry.
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Jun 23, 2023 15:58
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https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jun-21-22quote:In a meeting with Vladimir Putin, and the permanent members of the Security Council, the Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, reported that the armed forces do not need new "volunteer fighters,'' as 114,000 contract soldiers and 52,000 "volunteer fighters" had already been recruited (the minister did not specify the start date of this tally), with 1,336 people signing contracts with the Ministry of Defense every day. Additionally, the minister affirmed that an army reserve is set to be formed by the end of June, followed by an army corps, with both slated to receive more than 3,700 military vehicles. It is interesting to note that, according to Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, between Jan. 1 and May 19, 2023, the armed forces enlisted over 117,000 contract soldiersas part of "volunteer" units. Similarly, on Jun. 13, President Putin announced that 150,000 contract soldiers and 6,000 volunteer fighters had been recruited since the beginning of 2023. It is not readily apparent how these statements relate to each other. So it seems that Russia's recruiting efforts are working quite well, I would imagine these numbers include the various PMCs popping up in the background. Either way, I would assume they are going to be successful in avoiding the second wave of mobilization. 100k+ soldiers since the beginning of this year is nothing to sneeze at and even if they have to be trained, it seems like general manpower issues aren't going to be an issue. I also saw this article which raised a lot of counter intuitive ideas (though the way they use percentages makes some of the statements sound like nonsense to me) https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/treacherous-path-better-russia quote:Russia’s war in Ukraine has done little to change Putin’s outlook. His grip on power has tightened and will remain strong for as long as the fighting continues. Wars encourage people to rally around the flag, suppressing disagreement and dissent for the sake of national solidarity; polls have shown that Putin’s approval rating shot up ten points after he launched the invasion. As a wartime president, Putin has felt empowered to clamp down on critics and quash reporting by independent media outlets and nongovernmental organizations. Perhaps more important, the war has better insulated him from potential challengers from within. A stretched military lacks the bandwidth to mount a coup. In any case, the security services have profited from the war and have little incentive to throw in their lot with coup plotters. For these reasons, the dynamics created by the war and Putin’s own actions have made him more rather than less likely to retain power as the war rages on, further deferring political change in Russia. At least, it seems very counter intuitive to me that Putin's position has been strengthened by the war.
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Jun 23, 2023 16:00
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Prigozhin released a video today where he claims that Ukraine never shelled Donbas, only Russia has. He said the whole point of the invasion was that the oligarchs in Russia wanted to install Medvedchuk as President so they could strip Ukraine of resources and businesses. He said the oligarchs weren't just satisfied with Donbas. He goes on to say that the whole "Ukrainian Nazi" thing was made other. He asks, if it was true why did Russia exchange Medvedchuk for Azov POWs. The whole video is about 30 minutes long and it's being posted in bits and pieces all over the place. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672177488535977984?s=20
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Jun 23, 2023 16:05
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WarpedLichen posted:At least, it seems very counter intuitive to me that Putin's position has been strengthened by the war. Well his position is strengthened as long as he wins, that's the whole reason he started this thing. I don't think treating this as Schrodinger's war that cannot possibly be judged until it is over is very reasonable though. If he loses, his position will be massively weakend, and he is almost certainly going to lose eventually.
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Jun 23, 2023 16:06
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WarpedLichen posted:https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jun-21-22 I don't know how to read those numbers either. It seems like a very deliberate mishmash of time frames and vague terminology. quote:I also saw this article which raised a lot of counter intuitive ideas (though the way they use percentages makes some of the statements sound like nonsense to me) I read that article yesterday and I believe the point is that the war gave Putin an actionable excuse to further crush dissent. Plus, during war, there tends to be a natural rallying around the proverbial flag that helps keep everyone in line and that's even more helpful in authoritarian regimes. From the history I've studied, I agree with the author that authoritarian regimes don't tend to turn into better, more equitable regimes quickly or naturally. You tend to need a perfect blend of circumstances and I don't think Russia is anywhere near that combination. If Putin somehow ends up out of the picture, you're still going to need to make continued war in Ukraine an incredibly unattractive prospect for his successor. Eric Cantonese fucked around with this message at 16:10 on Jun 23, 2023 |
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Jun 23, 2023 16:08
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WarpedLichen posted:https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jun-21-22 Starting wars is popular (when the population has not been devastated by war in recent living memory). For eg, Bush invaded a country the other side of the world of absolutely no relevance to day to day American lives and was more popular for it. Not finishing wars is unpopular and gets more unpopular with time. Also Bush but also Russia in Afghanistan, Chechnya, etc. Not sure how long this can go before it becomes untenable on the home front but I bet five years or more is not out of the question.
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Jun 23, 2023 16:09
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WarpedLichen posted:https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jun-21-22 I read that the other way around. They've been desperate to avoid a second wave of mobilization given how disruptive the first one was, so they've found "volunteers" instead. I wouldn't read too much into the various conflicting (and possibly exaggerated) numbers presented to justify that decision. WarpedLichen posted:At least, it seems very counter intuitive to me that Putin's position has been strengthened by the war. Why? The war has given him license to lock up all opposition, further centralize his power and rollback much of civil society. I doubt it has made him many new friends but it has obviously allowed him to tighten his grip on power.
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Jun 23, 2023 16:29
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saratoga posted:Why? The war has given him license to lock up all opposition, further centralize his power and rollback much of civil society. I doubt it has made him many new friends but it has obviously allowed him to tighten his grip on power. To me, it just seems like you do that to preempt potential opposition. I hardly think in Putin's Russia, he needed an excuse to lock down. I guess it's arguable if this strengthens his position if that opposition never happens.
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Jun 23, 2023 16:49
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Mr. Apollo posted:Prigozhin released a video today where he claims that Ukraine never shelled Donbas, only Russia has. He said the whole point of the invasion was that the oligarchs in Russia wanted to install Medvedchuk as President so they could strip Ukraine of resources and businesses. He said the oligarchs weren't just satisfied with Donbas. He goes on to say that the whole "Ukrainian Nazi" thing was made other. He asks, if it was true why did Russia exchange Medvedchuk for Azov POWs. This seems like a big deal to me? Isn't he essentially openly defying Russia's government at this point, with his own private army to support him?
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Jun 23, 2023 17:01
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