(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Staluigi posted:Civil War Z I was about to go for World War Z Content: How do the numbers stack up in: Belarusian military vs belarusian rebels Like I assume reclaiming minsk is not on the top of Prigozhin's list, especially if a theoretical new state is allied with Ukraine. How would that uprising play out? What are we thinking Prigs mid-long term geological goals are?
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Jun 24, 2023 15:17
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Comstar posted:Marshal from there from where? All the Russian forces are in Ukraine. He has some strategic bombers and navy, which are of little use. There are literally three hundred thousand Rosgvardiya not currently in Ukraine. ... However, they are mostly riot cops with military ranks, not actual soldiers. Their combat value against actual soldiers are questionable at best. So far, in the places where they were ordered to stop Wagner advance they seem to have mostly stood by and let them through, or, according to Wagner claims, been quickly dispatched.
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Jun 24, 2023 15:18
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Vaginaface posted:I was about to go for World War Z Mid would be to win the civil war and crush all other factions that pop up during it (Assuming he downs putin) Long term, who the gently caress knows, Priogzhin probably doesn't know
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Jun 24, 2023 15:18
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I'm here with my traffic jam... it's just out of frame laughing.... (Have a second look at that first video, particularly when the camera is facing the head of the column.... thats a clear road ahead)
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Jun 24, 2023 15:19
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GaussianCopula posted:If you want to go by historic parallels, Alexander I evacuating Moscow so that Napoleon didn't get a decisive victory might be the most fitting. If Wagner captures Moscow Putin and the rest of the Security State and Government is basically done. Those who can would flee in exile to where ever they can. Although I think their days would be numbered since there would be any number of groups looking to capture/kill many if not all of them. Prigozhin's best option would be capturing as many of them alive as possible. He could use them as capital to help normalize relations with the West again. Really though we are in utterly unknown waters.
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Jun 24, 2023 15:20
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Nenonen posted:Prigozhin cannot win. He would have to replace the entire party apparatus loyal to King Put or replace the civilian administration with a military dictatorship. That would only go as well as it did in 1991. This is absolutely not true. Coups succeed all the time. If the security forces won't fight Wagner they'll change sides and it's over. If some security forces fight and lose and the rest won't fight, it's over. If Wagner seizes Moscow and control of the government it is probably over. The thing about power and loyalty is they are not tangible things. They disappear quick when circumstances change and perhaps the best way for that to happen is for people to believe they may die for loyalty to the old guy. Just because the 1991 coup failed doesn't mean all coups fail. This one easily could but if they get to Moscow I would start putting my money on success.
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Jun 24, 2023 15:21
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Djarum posted:If Wagner captures Moscow Putin and the rest of the Security State and Government is basically done. Those who can would flee in exile to where ever they can. Although I think their days would be numbered since there would be any number of groups looking to capture/kill many if not all of them. I am legit concerned that the Russian Nuclear arsenal will get used, on its own territory. Or even worse Putin on his way out decides to burn the world and launches everything.
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Jun 24, 2023 15:22
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edit: bad source
MegaZeroX fucked around with this message at 15:26 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 15:22
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Dog Friday posted:So we don't want Wagner to win and we don't like Putin either... What's the best outcome from all this? Everyone, including the people called into that little meeting last year, die or flee and the whole system collapses, whoever becomes king of the ashes decides that the only way to permanently secure their power against more subtle opponents is seriously cutting down on corruption. That isn't going to happen, but it's a warm and fuzzy thought.
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Jun 24, 2023 15:22
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Boris Galerkin posted:I guess I don’t understand that cause if Biden or the former guy “fled” to a secure military base while the capital was being invaded so what? similar to if DC was being invaded by a force serious enough to necessitate withdrawal, that the situation has even come to the point of the president fleeing speaks volumes. 48 hours ago Moscow was a thousand km from the warzone. the next day Putin is fleeing imminent fighting. it's a symptom of a colossal security breakdown
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Jun 24, 2023 15:23
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That account is pretty unreliable (and is also trying to impersonate another OSINT account). This footage is several hours old and we know Chechen troops did not reach the city hours ago. Also they're just some guys in tshirts. Same incident from a different angle https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1672573919948156929
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Jun 24, 2023 15:23
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Hryme posted:I don't know if Putin needs to keep up appearances this much to stay in control. Guess I will learn if he ends up winning this. The trouble is that this is an active coup/rebellion, and in the early days of such a lot banks on which way various units jump. If everyone stays loyal or joins in with the rebels, that can make or break the coup by itself right there. But understandably people are going to be somewhat reluctant to jump one way or another for fear of being labeled a traitor by whoever wins in the end, so you'll often get a lot of people trying to stay neutral somehow, letting things happen without committing as much as possible. It's only when a clear winner seems to be emerging that you start getting a lot of supporters, and the more supporters you get the more you seem like you're winning, while the converse is true and can lead to momentum moving very quickly and unexpectedly. Putin fleeing Moscow isn't make or break by itself but it DOES signal enough weakness that it could persuade units on the fence to consider throwing in with the rebels, potentially giving Wagner the advantage of the snowball effect. In a conflict where so much depends on the day to day loyalty of people on the ground looking like a confident winner may be a decisive factor in whether or not you actually win.
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Jun 24, 2023 15:24
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Yes that seems logical to me. Swaying neutrals is important.
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Jun 24, 2023 15:25
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AtomikKrab posted:I am legit concerned that the Russian Nuclear arsenal will get used, on its own territory. Or even worse Putin on his way out decides to burn the world and launches everything. Zero point zero chance at either of those.
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Jun 24, 2023 15:26
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Chalks posted:That account is pretty unreliable (and is also trying to impersonate another OSINT account). This footage is several hours old and we know Chechen troops did not reach the city hours ago. Also they're just some guys in tshirts. Thanks, removed
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Jun 24, 2023 15:26
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Djarum posted:If Wagner captures Moscow Putin and the rest of the Security State and Government is basically done. Those who can would flee in exile to where ever they can. Although I think their days would be numbered since there would be any number of groups looking to capture/kill many if not all of them. The Guardian live blog reported that all flights out of Moscow are full. https://twitter.com/MilitaryLabb/status/1672581402641014784?s=20 Moscow in 3 days....
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Jun 24, 2023 15:30
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Comstar posted:The Guardian live blog reported that all flights out of Moscow are full. Very fall of Kabul vibes.
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Jun 24, 2023 15:32
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Call me paranoid, but I wouldn't want to step into an airplane in this situation.
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Jun 24, 2023 15:33
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Hryme posted:I would be more interested in winning (and staying alive) that what looks embarrassing. The thing is doing embarrassing things makes it less likely you win and stay alive. If the head guy is fleeing why shouldn't everyone else?
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Jun 24, 2023 15:34
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Chalks posted:That account is pretty unreliable (and is also trying to impersonate another OSINT account). This footage is several hours old and we know Chechen troops did not reach the city hours ago. Also they're just some guys in tshirts. This is several hours old footage. Not Chechens. Edit: Me not read good.
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Jun 24, 2023 15:36
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AtomikKrab posted:I am legit concerned that the Russian Nuclear arsenal will get used, on its own territory. Or even worse Putin on his way out decides to burn the world and launches everything. Okay I know things are well into Cool Zone now but shut up about nukes
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Jun 24, 2023 15:38
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GaussianCopula posted:
If Putin can't defend Moscow from a band of mercenaries then everything he's ever done will be for nothing regardless of Prigozhin's fate. Putin keeps killing potential challengers and hasn't groomed an heir so it seems like Russia is unfortunately in for a wild ride. If anyone here finds yourself a leader of a nation try to get mental healthcare to downplay pathological needs for domination is probably really good long term stability advice. edit: Yeah nuke chat is irresponsible. I don't think it's wrong to point out Prigozhin could be interested in obtaining one as a show of force and further humiliate the government but the idea anyone is going to use a nuke is ridiculous. What is there to gain? Nothing. What do you lose? Everything. Forever. It's irrational fear. Nelson Mandingo fucked around with this message at 15:41 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 15:38
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Boris Galerkin posted:I guess I don’t understand that cause if Biden or the former guy “fled” to a secure military base while the capital was being invaded so what? American troops and the rest of the government are loyal to the United States for reasons slightly stronger than a fear that Biden will have them shot.
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Jun 24, 2023 15:38
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daslog posted:I'm having a difficult time in my mid 50's here adjusting to this new world where you can tell what's going on with a Russian Civil war by looking at google maps for the latest troop movements. I'm 50 myself. Remember when we used to expect the unstoppable Soviet armies to reach Paris within days if someone sneezed wrong?
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Jun 24, 2023 15:38
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fatherboxx posted:shut up about nukes This should be the thread title.
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Jun 24, 2023 15:39
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If this actually succeeds and Prigozhin takes Moscow, I'm kind of curious what his next course of action is, what's the procedure, its not like he has the time to organize a phony election and declare himself president, state that Russia is under some kind of special martial law or something? Like even compared to other coups I can think of this is mindblowing, at least people like Gaddafi were part of the regular military, how does a mercenary outfit justify seizing control of a country in the 21st century?
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Jun 24, 2023 15:40
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Groke posted:I'm 50 myself. Remember when we used to expect the unstoppable Soviet armies to reach Paris within days if someone sneezed wrong? So, who won the air war? https://twitter.com/SmartUACat/status/1672612613367164928?s=20
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Jun 24, 2023 15:40
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Jun 24, 2023 15:41
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khwarezm posted:If this actually succeeds and Prigozhin takes Moscow, I'm kind of curious what his next course of action is, what's the procedure, its not like he has the time to organize a phony election and declare himself president, state that Russia is under some kind of special martial law or something? Studying Medieval history never felt like a more enjoyably choice. 
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Jun 24, 2023 15:42
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I like how this whole situation has accelerated in "fully unbelievable degrees", where each step up is beyond what you could expect of the degradation of the situation by orders of magnitude that completely redefine the practical or probable limits of what this coup / insurrection / civil conflict can achieve before getting put down And in each cycle people all like "okay well that went as bad as it could have for russia, but it remains most likely that ... [reads latest news] uh OK wait is this really happening? loving nevermind"
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Jun 24, 2023 15:45
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khwarezm posted:If this actually succeeds and Prigozhin takes Moscow, I'm kind of curious what his next course of action is, what's the procedure, its not like he has the time to organize a phony election and declare himself president, state that Russia is under some kind of special martial law or something? Russian institutions are essentially fictional so any answer is overdetermined, but one is that if Mishustin (is it still Mishustin) could be persuaded to go along and the coupists want basic continuity of government, then Prigozhin has Mishustin announce that the office of the presidency is vacant because the president is unable or unwilling to discharge his duties, and constitutionally Mishustin becomes acting president and that's the ballgame.
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Jun 24, 2023 15:45
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So isn’t Wagner full of bad actors who may be worse than Putin? It would be like if Erik Prince decided to March on Washington because Trump wasn’t fascist enough.
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Jun 24, 2023 15:47
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Watching in real time a mercenary force couping a large, relatively advanced country XXI century feels surreal, what a wild timelime we're living in.
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Jun 24, 2023 15:48
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Servetus posted:Studying Medieval history never felt like a more enjoyably choice. Like that's literally the closest thing I can think of as a comparison, some Condottieri saying 'gently caress it' and seizing somewhere like Milan in the 15th century because who's going to stop him? This whole war seems so out of time, if that makes sense, it starts off with early 20th century naked aggression and massive armies trying to conquer different parts of Europe out of some hosed up 'Spheres of influence' or 'Natural Borders' view of international affairs, and now its regressed even further back to Medieval style mercenary armies literally taking control of entire countries.
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Jun 24, 2023 15:48
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Man Plan Canal posted:Russian institutions are essentially fictional so any answer is overdetermined, but one is that if Mishustin (is it still Mishustin) could be persuaded to go along and the coupists want basic continuity of government, then Prigozhin has Mishustin announce that the office of the presidency is vacant because the president is unable or unwilling to discharge his duties, and constitutionally Mishustin becomes acting president and that's the ballgame. He already fled to Petrograd.
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Jun 24, 2023 15:49
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Pillowpants posted:So isn’t Wagner full of bad actors who may be worse than Putin? It would be like if Erik Prince decided to March on Washington because Trump wasn’t fascist enough. yes but a bad actor looking to consolidate control may not be interested in prosecuting a losing foreign war of agression instead of solidifying power
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Jun 24, 2023 15:49
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Pillowpants posted:So isn’t Wagner full of bad actors who may be worse than Putin? It would be like if Erik Prince decided to March on Washington because Trump wasn’t fascist enough. Absolutely. I've repeated this many times but I think it bears repeating. The ideal scenario here is Prigozhin does well enough to force Russia to return it's soldiers from Ukraine, effectively ending the war, and then loses. Putin is a coward, a snake, and a piece of poo poo but the new boss is probably explicitly worse for Russia and the region than the old one. Edit ^ Though Weasel is correct too.
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Jun 24, 2023 15:50
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I have no doubt that some CIA probably convinced them to do this. And now I'm picturing The Music Man, except selling instruments it's convincing a bunch of pissed off Russians to attack Moscow. "76 AK-47s in the Big Parade"
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Jun 24, 2023 15:51
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Looks like there will be at least some impact on the troops currently in Ukraine: https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1672616594072018951
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Jun 24, 2023 15:51
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khwarezm posted:If this actually succeeds and Prigozhin takes Moscow, I'm kind of curious what his next course of action is, what's the procedure, its not like he has the time to organize a phony election and declare himself president, state that Russia is under some kind of special martial law or something? in a bizarre twist of fate that no one could have anticipated, wagner was in africa planning and executing multiple coups and I guess they got some ideas
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Jun 24, 2023 15:51
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