Failed Imagineer posted:

Well yeah, it's kinda belabouring the point now but that's literally the historical origin. And I think guav as usual summed it up more pithily than me.

Failed Imagineer posted:

I'd rather if they could Bend any of the other three elements, since humans aren't primarily composed out of Fire

kecske posted:

water / air / earth aren't so good at getting hairs off your ears

Zalakwe posted:

I was maybe overzealous, given the fact barbers were doing surgery is in hindsight a bit ridiculous, but my only point is that there may well be barbers that can be surgeons.

Make this person prime minister.

Sanford posted:

Owlfancier, the Director of Income Generation for one of those charities you mentioned says thanks, that’s really helpful feedback. I knew the “so I don’t bother going in” aspect would get their attention. They asked if you go in looking for anything in particular - I mentioned the coats but they really meant is it business or casual wear you’re generally after?

If anyone else wants to tell me anything about charity shops so I appear to have prepped in some way for the charity retail conference that starts tomorrow, that’d be really helpful.

Z the IVth posted:

There isn't that much separating a carpenter and an orthopedic surgeon.

Bish bash bosh jobs a good 'un. Sometimes your wall falls down and sometimes Nana can't quite walk straight anymore.

Guavanaut posted:

An orthopod sounds like it should be some kind of large woodlouse.

Guavanaut posted:

An orthopod sounds like it should be some kind of large woodlouse.

Zalakwe posted:

The orthopod who operated on my arm after a multiple break was struck off for failing to beat the bottle a few months later, did a great job though, was just thinking I needed a new shed as well.

Guavanaut posted:

An orthopod sounds like it should be some kind of large woodlouse.

quote:

The Bank of England will push the UK into recession by the end of the year in its battle to curb the worst inflation of any Group of Seven economy, according to Bloomberg Economics.

In an analysis published Tuesday, economists Dan Hanson and Ana Andrade say a shallow if protracted downturn is the price of taming an inflation rate that remains stubbornly close to double digits — despite 13 straight interest-rate increases since the end of 2021.

They now expect a yearlong recession starting in the fourth quarter to cost just over 1% of economic output. That assumes the BOE raises rates to a peak of 5.75% by November from the current 5%. However, money markets are almost fully pricing in 6.25% by December, raising the possibility of a far worse slump.

“The risk is the data continue to prove unresponsive to the BOE’s actions and interest rates rise further than our baseline,” Hanson and Andrade wrote. “As borrowing costs move above 5%, we think the risk of a financial stability shock increases exponentially.”

The analysis means Prime Minister Rishi Sunak could be fighting the next election against a backdrop of shrinking output, rising unemployment and mounting home repossessions as mortgages costs continue to climb. The average 2-year home loan is now around 6.25%, approaching the levels seen during the market turmoil that brought down his predecessor, Liz Truss, last autumn.

While Sunak doesn’t have to call an until January 2025, he is widely expected to go to the polls next year. Surveys show his Conservative Party consistently trailing the Labour opposition by more than 10 percentage points. 

Causing the economy to shrink would also heap criticism on the BOE, not least from Conservative lawmakers at risk of losing their seats. The BOE now faces the very real possibility of having to reinstate its recession call at its next forecasting round in August, just three months after delivering the biggest upgrade to its projections since gaining independence in 1997.

Hanson and Andrade expect the economy to grow just 0.1% this year and shrink 1% in 2024, a sharp revision from the 0.3% growth previously estimated.

Even then, with wage growth refusing to subside and cheaper energy set to boost household incomes, inflation will end this year just above 5% — more than double the 2% target and down only modestly from the current 8.7%. In an illustration of the strength of underlying cost pressures, core inflation — which hit a 31-year high of 7.1% in May — is only likely to move below 6% in early 2024. 

“The recent strength of the inflation and wage data has left the BOE with little choice but to squeeze the economy even harder,” Hanson and Andrade write. The BOE will start cutting rates in the second quarter of next year but proceed cautiously, given that inflation will still be above target. 

“The big risk to our forecast is that the BOE tightens by more than we have assume,” they said. “In a world where it followed market expectations, which is about 100 bps higher on average over the next three years compared to our forecast, we would expect the economy to be about 1% smaller by 4Q25 with a deeper recession.

“What that estimate could easily miss is the possibility that the lags from past tightening are longer than we have assumed or that high rates create financial instability. Should either of those scenarios play out, the recession would be significantly deeper.”

Sanford posted:

Owlfancier, the Director of Income Generation for one of those charities you mentioned says thanks, that’s really helpful feedback. I knew the “so I don’t bother going in” aspect would get their attention. They asked if you go in looking for anything in particular - I mentioned the coats but they really meant is it business or casual wear you’re generally after?

If anyone else wants to tell me anything about charity shops so I appear to have prepped in some way for the charity retail conference that starts tomorrow, that’d be really helpful.

Reveilled posted:

I remember one charity shop I was in years and years ago had an arrangement with a local knitting club/circle where in winter they'd sell hats and scarves knitted by the club which seemed quite successful. Kind of depends on having a lot of hobbyist knitters about, of course.

kecske posted:

water / air / earth aren't so good at getting hairs off your ears

OwlFancier posted:

I am mostly drawn to charity shops because they have interesting clothes in them, stuff that's a bit different to the high street shops and it's nice to just have a look around.

killerwhat posted:

Definitely this. The potential for weird items is the reason I go to charity shops. My favourite ever such purchase is a black and white tunic dress with appliqued fried eggs and cactuses.

Z the IVth posted:

I suspect a good carpenter earns a comparable amount to a typical NHS orthopod who doesn't do private practice.

OwlFancier posted:

Really? Good god surely they must get it from customers.

I would generally buy my workwear new because I'm going to wear it to tatters anyway and I want something that's fairly specific and that I know I can comfortably wear all day every day. But I enjoy charity shopping just so I get like, you know, stuff that's a bit different. I got a nice fake vest/shirt combo (wool vest with shirt sleeves attached) from a charity shop once that I wore a lot cos it looked smart, nice shirts/tops are welcome, trousers are harder to find ones that really suit because I have weird legs and I often find they're in a bit worse condition.

Mostly the motivation is that a lot of the new clothes shops are very... trendy I guess? Like you get stuff that just looks like everything else and you pay a lot for it, so I am mostly drawn to charity shops because they have interesting clothes in them, stuff that's a bit different to the high street shops and it's nice to just have a look around. Also a lot of the charity stuff can be really good quality so it actually lasts unlike random stuff off the internet.

I suppose more casual than business but then my idea of "casual" is probably more like "business" in that I don't wear shirts to work but I do occasionally for fun. Something different and comfortable are the main things. I find when I look in the men's section it's usually just some dull trousers and some old dull shirts nowadays. It really is finding something stand-out that makes it desirable.

Honestly I figured they were just very picked over? Or getting fewer donations compared to people buying them now.

My grandmother used to do baby clothes knitted and they could fetch an absolute fortune if she wanted them to. But hell yeah proper knitted hats are a real treat, I have a couple my grandmother made me before she died and they're so good to wear.

HopperUK posted:

The only thing that puts me off going into most charity shops around here is they're really badly lit. They feel dim and crowded and I don't see well, and I'm kinda round, so I just feel that I'm in the way the whole time I'm in there and it makes me nervous to pause and look at stuff. I don't know that there's much to be done about it though - obviously they have a limited choice of locations.

OwlFancier posted:

It really is incredible when labour can't bring themselves to run on the "no children should go hungry" platform for fucks sake.

OwlFancier posted:

It really is incredible when labour can't bring themselves to run on the "no children should go hungry" platform for fucks sake.

OwlFancier posted:

I feel like a lot of the difference between men and women must be marketing, there's an entire loving industry flogging new clothes to women and encouraging people to change them when they don't really need to. But men's fashion is kind of dire anyway so even if we did get the same volume of marketing what are they even going to sell you? How many t shirts, shirts, and trousers can one person own?

OwlFancier posted:

Yes I will go around with a falcon, ammunition, and a big knife as a fashion statement.

OwlFancier posted:

It's so depressing when you look at history and they had so much cool fashion around and now it's just "t shirt, trouser" and that's it.

Guavanaut posted:

I mean it isn't an unorthodox look

Guavanaut posted: