|
What is the most powerful flying bug? This poll is closed. |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
| 🦋 |
|
15 | 3.71% |
| 🦇 |
|
115 | 28.47% |
| 🪰 |
|
12 | 2.97% |
| 🐦 |
|
67 | 16.58% |
| dragonfly |
|
94 | 23.27% |
| 🦟 |
|
14 | 3.47% |
| 🐝 |
|
87 | 21.53% |
| Total: | 404 votes | ||
|
Majorian posted:Which is precisely my point. As long as this stalemate persists, why would either side make a desperate move that made one of the most economically viable regions in the country suddenly economically barren? A lack of territorial movement doesn’t mean a stalemate, the Russians weren’t winning in July 1917 because the frontline hadn’t moved for a while. As for why Ukraine does insane desperate moves, that question has been pretty central to this thread. It is “very political types,” comprehensive psychotic behavior, greed, or all of the above? Would those in charge be willing to do something nuts like hit a reactor? I guess we will find out.
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 21:19
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 23, 2024 13:50 |
|
|
Majorian posted:Permanently writing off important economic ground to fill their pockets sounds like an awfully good way to get couped by whichever ambitious generals aren't in on the grift, something that Z would probably like to avoid. Nah, since the ambitious generals are closing the money spigot if they gently caress with Zelensky, so potentially getting something down the road is better than guaranteeing nothing at all.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 21:21
|
|
|
Cao Ni Ma posted:The IAEA has not once called out ukraine by name when shellings happen. I genuinely think that if they cause a meltdown on the plant the IAEA will not take a side on who caused it, just letting the western narrative take place until ukraine has to be thrown under the bus. Shelling the plant to the point where it melts down and starts spewing radioactivity all over the region strikes me as a significant step above a few shells hitting it as both sides trade fire. I can't say for a fact that the IAEA inspectors would call out Ukraine for it, but to me that seems like, dare I say it, a red line for them as an organization. Horseshoe theory posted:Nah, since the ambitious generals are closing the money spigot if they gently caress with Zelensky, so potentially getting something down the road is better than guaranteeing nothing at all. I haven't seen any evidence that suggests Z has that much control over the general staff.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 21:21
|
|
|
Well, anyone back in Kiev is on the grift, I don’t know about the zoomers leading brigades. They probably get paid in Fortnite tokens,
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 21:24
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:A lack of territorial movement doesn’t mean a stalemate, the Russians weren’t winning in July 1917 because the frontline hadn’t moved for a while. By July 1917 the February Revolution had taken place, mass desertions and mutinees were happening regularly, and Kerensky's government was holding on by a sliver. Ukraine isn't there yet. quote:As for why Ukraine does insane desperate moves, that question has been pretty central to this thread. It is “very political types,” comprehensive psychotic behavior, greed, or all of the above? Would those in charge be willing to do something nuts like hit a reactor? I guess we will find out. We certainly will. If they blow up ZPP in the near future I'll readily admit I was wrong. Will you do the same if they don't in the near future? Ardennes posted:Well, anyone back in Kiev is on the grift I wouldn't be so sure of that. There are always hungry types who aren't in on the con.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 21:27
|
|
|
Majorian posted:Which is precisely my point. As long as this stalemate persists, why would either side make a desperate move that made one of the most economically viable regions in the country suddenly economically barren? So if one side determines that the stalemate is unlikely to persist for much longer, then they may make a desperate move?
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 21:36
|
|
|
personally i feel like the fact that the ukrainian government has to resort to mass scale pressganging because like 80% of draftees don't show up when called is indicative of morale fraying p badly, but maybe thats just me
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 21:37
|
|
|
Punkin Spunkin posted:https://twitter.com/KnittingUkraine/status/1604205085768253440?t=qzc09Q1Ju8gRawKEyfjXjQ&s=19 haha its funny because people are dead
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 21:37
|
|
|
BearsBearsBears posted:So if one side determines that the stalemate is unlikely to persist for much longer, then they may make a desperate move? Possibly. I don't think we're going to see that anytime soon though. I think it's stalemate o'clock, just as it always is. Cerebral Bore posted:personally i feel like the fact that the ukrainian government has to resort to mass scale pressganging because like 80% of draftees don't show up when called is indicative of morale fraying p badly, but maybe thats just me They're facing challenges in recruiting, but I haven't seen any evidence that anywhere near 80% of draftees don't show up. Majorian has issued a correction as of 21:40 on Jul 3, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 21:37
|
|
|
tazjin posted:I like how twitter became completely inaccessible and in response the number of tweet links in this thread went up now that im not posting twitter links anymore twitter is good now
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 21:39
|
|
|
Cerebral Bore posted:personally i feel like the fact that the ukrainian government has to resort to mass scale pressganging because like 80% of draftees don't show up when called is indicative of morale fraying p badly, but maybe thats just me thinking about that new yorker article from last month and how the officers said they don't punish deserters because they don't blame people for not wanting to sit in trench until they're blown up
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 21:44
|
|
|
Majorian posted:Possibly. I don't think we're going to see that anytime soon though. I think it's stalemate o'clock, just as it always is. Destroying the Kakhova dam seems like a desperate move to me. I just don't see how you can say "they" were desperate enough to destroy a massive and vital dam but not desperate enough to destroy a nuclear power plant. It seems like some very fine hair slicing.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 21:47
|
|
|
Majorian posted:They're facing challenges in recruiting, but I haven't seen any evidence that anywhere near 80% of draftees don't show up. There was literally an article from a Ukrainian publication that said just that a few pages (if anything it is probably higher than 80% because half that show up end up volunteers). Majorian posted:By July 1917 the February Revolution had taken place, mass desertions and mutinees were happening regularly, and Kerensky's government was holding on by a sliver. Ukraine isn't there yet. Eh...there are signs of surrenders and mutinies going on btw. A stalemate implies the two sides are in balance of each other, that really doesn't seem to be the case here. quote:I wouldn't be so sure of that. There are always hungry types who aren't in on the con. If they aren't, they are probably considered suspect. A corrupt precinct is always skeptical of the couple remaining by the book cops. Basically, the argument rests of "they aren't that crazy and things are going that bad" when I would say eh...I don't know about that. Ardennes has issued a correction as of 21:54 on Jul 3, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 21:52
|
|
|
BearsBearsBears posted:Destroying the Kakhova dam seems like a desperate move to me. I just don't see how you can say "they" were desperate enough to destroy a massive and vital dam but not desperate enough to destroy a nuclear power plant. It seems like some very fine hair slicing. I realize I'm in the minority here, but I'm not convinced either side blew up the dam deliberately. Given how strategically terrible for both sides that event was, and how caught off-guard both armies clearly were, I think it's more likely that there was some type of accident.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 21:53
|
|
|
I will say this: itreally didn't help their case when the river started to dry out, that the Ukrainians made the move to try to establish a bridgehead (it didn't go very well).
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 21:55
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:Basically, the argument rests of "they aren't that crazy and things are going that bad" when I would say eh...I don't know about that. Okay, but this discussion began with folks here saying, "Ukraine is claiming that the Russians are going to blow up the plant in the very near future; therefore, it's clear that the Ukrainians are going to blow up the plant as a false flag themselves in the very near future." I think the far more likely read on that is, "Ukraine is blowing smoke to get more aid from NATO as the counteroffensive stalls."
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 21:55
|
|
|
Because for a year now the Ukrianians have been saying the Russians are trying to plow up the ZPP, while they're the ones shelling it. Its literally jist going oh they're gonna try and blow it up every time they say the Russians will
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 21:59
|
|
|
Posting on the SS Galicia Division is reclassified as non-combatants by the British, in cooperation with the Papal Envoy, so they don’t have to be repatriated, page.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 21:59
|
|
|
Majorian posted:I realize I'm in the minority here, but I'm not convinced either side blew up the dam deliberately. Given how strategically terrible for both sides that event was, and how caught off-guard both armies clearly were, I think it's more likely that there was some type of accident. Or blown up by a mysterious and entirely unknown interventionist 3rd party who definitely doesn't have boots on the ground. Dramatic dun-dun-dunnnnn.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 22:00
|
|
|
KomradeX posted:Because for a year now the Ukrianians have been saying the Russians are trying to plow up the ZPP, while they're the ones shelling it. Its literally jist going oh they're gonna try and blow it up every time they say the Russians will It doesn't look to me like they're trying to blow it up, is the thing. As others have pointed out, it would take more than a few stray shells to breach the containment shell and start spreading radioactive fallout all over the place. DancingShade posted:Or blown up by a mysterious and entirely unknown interventionist 3rd party who definitely doesn't have boots on the ground. That is certainly possible, and also worthy of a dramatic sting, I won't deny it.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 22:02
|
|
|
Majorian posted:It doesn't look to me like they're trying to blow it up, is the thing. As others have pointed out, it would take more than a few stray shells to breach the containment shell and start spreading radioactive fallout all over the place. So than why shell the plant at all? And create this narrative that the Russians are doing it themselves, for shits and giggles?
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 22:07
|
|
|
Majorian posted:Okay, but this discussion began with folks here saying, "Ukraine is claiming that the Russians are going to blow up the plant in the very near future; therefore, it's clear that the Ukrainians are going to blow up the plant as a false flag themselves in the very near future." I think the far more likely read on that is, "Ukraine is blowing smoke to get more aid from NATO as the counteroffensive stalls." imo change that first sentence to be “Ukraine is claiming that the Russians are going to blow up the plant in the very near future; therefore, it’s clear that if that were to happen Ukraine/US were actually the ones responsible.” and I’d say why not both?
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 22:10
|
|
|
KomradeX posted:So than why shell the plant at all? And create this narrative that the Russians are doing it themselves, for shits and giggles? Rattle the Russians, provoke an ill-thought-out response from the troops occupying the plant, hurt the unit's morale, make them feel like holding the plant is no longer tenable, etc. That's what they're aiming at, at least. Whether or not it has been successful is obviously another matter. Vomik posted:imo change that first sentence to be “Ukraine is claiming that the Russians are going to blow up the plant in the very near future; therefore, it’s clear that if that were to happen Ukraine/US were actually the ones responsible.” and I’d say why not both? Why do it now of all times, though? The U.S. and its NATO allies know that they're not going to come to a consensus to start WWIII if the plant blows up. As dumb as the Ukrainian government is, I think even they realize this. Again, I think it would be something worth taking more seriously if the whole front wasn't locked in a stalemate, but it is. I don't see that changing dramatically anytime soon. Others clearly do see that happening. We'll see which one of us is right on that. Majorian has issued a correction as of 22:15 on Jul 3, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 22:12
|
|
|
adl does a survey of global antisemitism attitudes that I was looking at. it is based on these questions quote:
2023 results:
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 22:30
|
|
|
lmao Poland, what a shocker.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 22:30
|
|
|
Could a stuxnet type attack be a possibility? That would be easier to conceal than any conventional attack. Particularly if the intent is to use a meltdown as part of an offensive to seize the plant and any evidence.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 22:34
|
|
|
Majorian posted:Rattle the Russians, provoke an ill-thought-out response from the troops occupying the plant, hurt the unit's morale, make them feel like holding the plant is no longer tenable, etc. That's what they're aiming at, at least. Whether or not it has been successful is obviously another matter. the problem with this is that Russia is OK with a stalemate for the time being, but this stalemate isn't sufficient for Zelensky to satisfy his handlers in time for the July 11 summit. and if they're desperate enough, all the assumptions about not being dumb go out the window
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 22:35
|
|
|
Russia is dumb as gently caress too since they've conditioned NATO into crossing red lines---they've done nothing to suggest the ZNPP one cannot be crossed without serious consequences
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 22:36
|
|
|
Pinely posted:Could a stuxnet type attack be a possibility? That would be easier to conceal than any conventional attack. Particularly if the intent is to use a meltdown as part of an offensive to seize the plant and any evidence. it's easier than that, just send one (1) storm shadow at a spent fuel pool
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 22:37
|
|
|
Pinely posted:Could a stuxnet type attack be a possibility? That would be easier to conceal than any conventional attack. Particularly if the intent is to use a meltdown as part of an offensive to seize the plant and any evidence. Possibly, but that meltdown would be contained by the reactor's containment building, so it wouldn't bring about the dramatic fireworks that the Ukrainians would hypothetically want in this scenario. orly posted:the problem with this is that Russia is OK with a stalemate for the time being, but this stalemate isn't sufficient for Zelensky to satisfy his handlers in time for the July 11 summit. and if they're desperate enough, all the assumptions about not being dumb go out the window I agree, but if beating the "Russia is going to attack ZPP any day now! Send weapons!" drum keeps working for the time being, why not just keep doing that? orly posted:Russia is dumb as gently caress too since they've conditioned NATO into crossing red lines---they've done nothing to suggest the ZNPP one cannot be crossed without serious consequences 
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 22:44
|
|
|
mawarannahr posted:adl does a survey of global antisemitism attitudes that I was looking at. it is based on these questions noticed something interesting about the Ukraine data. their antisemitism score went from 38% in 2014 to 46% in 2019, then dropped to 29% in 2023. Good antiracist work being done (denazification?)
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 22:46
|
|
|
mawarannahr posted:noticed something interesting about the Ukraine data. their antisemitism score went from 38% in 2014 to 46% in 2019, then dropped to 29% in 2023. Good antiracist work being done (denazification?) The 17% went to elsewhere in Europe, US, Canada - bing bong, so simple!
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 22:48
|
|
|
I'm surprised Spain isn't way higher. Also just today I took my kid to the park and found a charicature of a Jew (you can picture it surely) on the slide. Complete with tons of writing about how the work of the police was crime, so the work of doctors was covid and the Jews are responsible for everything. And other assorted bullshit. loving son of his mother. loving stupid lovely moment in history. gently caress everything.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 22:48
|
|
|
mawarannahr posted:noticed something interesting about the Ukraine data. their antisemitism score went from 38% in 2014 to 46% in 2019, then dropped to 29% in 2023. Good antiracist work being done (denazification?) It probably helps that Russia is the far more obvious bogeyman to blame for the country's problems right now.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 22:49
|
|
|
fizzy posted:Great news for Ukraine - Ukraine has reclaimed (a) 9 square kilometres along the eastern front, and (b) 28.4 km of the territory in the south, bring the total area of re-captured territory along the southern front to 158.4 square kilometres.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 22:49
|
|
|
160 sq km is about the size of washington DC (did my math wrong earlier) now spread that over the entire front JAY ZERO SUM GAME has issued a correction as of 22:59 on Jul 3, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 22:56
|
|
|
good news from the western front! field marshal haig’s drinks cabinet moves 30 feet closer to berlin!
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 23:09
|
|
|
Big buildup of Russian forces in the central part of the eastern front. I wonder if they'll make a big push while the NATO party gets going next week. https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-07-03-23/h_2e0837e6df67845e0d8a10e2529071b8
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 23:12
|
|
|
Majorian posted:Neither side is going to intentionally blow up the ZPP. Ukraine isn't going to permanently irradiate an area that's economically vital to their future, and Russia isn't going to do it either because they stand to make a shitton of money by integrating it into their federation. The only scenario in which either side would blow up the plant is if they were certain they were losing and were going to permanently lose that territory. Every bit of evidence I've seen suggests to me that both sides believe 100% that they are winning this war. That belief may or may not reflect reality, but it's pretty clearly what both Ukraine and Russia believe. I feel like every argument in your first paragraph could apply equally well to the dam that was blown up. Fascists are not rational. They have a death drive. Also, just before Prigozhin's trip to Moscow, FSB arrested people trying to score Caesium-137 for Ukraine. Something that might be useful for a false flag. Your second paragraph is a very rational argument, of course. But here's the thing. Several NATO members keep talking about going in. You don't need the whole alliance in agreement, you just need one country to go for it. Secondly, NATO doesn't need to go in to make Ukraine believe that a false flag attack will draw NATO in. Ukraine both desperate, and not a rational actor. I don't think there's a high chance of a meltdown, because unless I'm mistaken, Russia turned the power-plant off after months of shelling. But I'm sure attacking it is not, you know, great for the environment, and it could certainly be fodder for further escalation. EDIT: Oops I guess I missed a whole bunch of replies. Leaving the post up so everyone can point and laugh at the slow man.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 23:27
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 23, 2024 13:50 |
|
|
Majorian posted:Shelling the plant to the point where it melts down and starts spewing radioactivity all over the region strikes me as a significant step above a few shells hitting it as both sides trade fire. I can't say for a fact that the IAEA inspectors would call out Ukraine for it, but to me that seems like, dare I say it, a red line for them as an organization. Incidentally they did at the time make statements calling for the shelling to stop and made a point to say "It's not Russia". Sure they did not say "it is Ukraine", but they did say "It's not Russia". Didn't change anyone's opinion. Ukraine did then publicly criticise the IAEA for being Kremlin stooges, of course, but it got immediately memory holed.
|
|
#
?
Jul 3, 2023 23:36
|
|