[Asia/Oceania] Yellen says she hopes China wont mount retaliation against any steps Washington takes

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Asia/Oceania] Yellen says she hopes China wont mount retaliation against any steps Washington takes

«‹›3001 »

(Thread IKs: fart simpson)

Punkin Spunkin: Jan 1, 2010

Popy posted:

im the guy right off camera dressed as a harry potter

Me too

# ? Jul 6, 2023 07:38

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 23, 2024 12:12

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Isentropy posted:

this is exactly the kind of "fundamentally flawed" NBA player who'd normally have made a killing playing ball and be a decent star in... wait for it...

T�rkiye, where Allen Iverson went at 35

# ? Jul 6, 2023 07:52

Isentropy: Dec 12, 2010

mawarannahr posted:

T�rkiye, where Allen Iverson went at 35

yup! AI made a pretty decent amount for that contract too. I don�t think whoever is paying Enes now is paying him 3 million a year or so

# ? Jul 6, 2023 08:12

gradenko_2000: Oct 5, 2010; HELL SERPENT; Lipstick Apathy

code:

https://twitter.com/pama_pil/status/1676877552789626881

quote:

Fisherfolk group Pambansang Lakas ng Kilusang Mamamalakaya ng Pilipinas (Pamalakaya) [Philippine National Union of Fisherfolk] sees nothing wrong in showing �Barbie� film in the country despite a scene in the movie showing China�s nine-dash line on the world map.

Fishers group okay with �Barbie� film despite nine-dash line scene

According to Pamalakaya, a single scene in a film �doesn�t have any bearing for what the Filipino fishers believe and stand for � that the West Philippine Sea is indisputably ours and ours alone.�

�The Philippine government should instead popularize in different venues the 2016 arbitral ruling, as a way to uphold our national sovereignty and territorial integrity,� it added.

oh wow would you look at that a working-class movement on the left has a more reasonable take on the whole situation

# ? Jul 6, 2023 10:36

crepeface: Nov 5, 2004; r*p*f*c*

https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1676765596942467072?t=wAfQ5-FFPtB1xrkRhzosbw&s=19

it's working out so well for europe!

# ? Jul 6, 2023 10:58

Red and Black: Sep 5, 2011

Interesting how liberal plans for peace involve antagonizing world powers

# ? Jul 6, 2023 12:18

Orange Devil: Oct 1, 2010; Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

gradenko_2000 posted:

code:
https://twitter.com/pama_pil/status/1676877552789626881
oh wow would you look at that a working-class movement on the left has a more reasonable take on the whole situation

The line literally has 8 dashes though!

# ? Jul 6, 2023 12:30

Cerebral Bore: Apr 21, 2010; Fun Shoe

Red and Black posted:

Interesting how liberal plans for peace involve antagonizing world powers

technically eternal peace and freedom will come once the whole earth is an irradiated cinder bereft of life, and we all know the lib obsession with technicalities

# ? Jul 6, 2023 12:45

stephenthinkpad: Jan 2, 2020

Yeah the Taiwanese presidential 3-way race is wild. I love that all 3 are throwing opposite ideas on the wall. Hopefully the KMT candidate continue to shrink and the pan-blue voters all vote the middle guy.

# ? Jul 6, 2023 13:25

stephenthinkpad: Jan 2, 2020

Also serious question, can somebody point out where china/vietnam/philippines/SCS are on that Barbie map, I have no loving idea what I am looking at.

# ? Jul 6, 2023 13:27

Throatwarbler: Nov 17, 2008; by vyelkin

fart simpson posted:

i found that thread favorite michael penis wrote an article in 2011 with a bunch of predictions for "the rest of the decade"
https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/45483

lets go through them one by one and see how he did

BRICS and other developing countries have not decoupled in any meaningful sense, and once the current liquidity-driven investment boom subsides the developing world will be hit hard by the global crisis.

well i dont think the liquidity driven investment boom really subsided within the decade. i guess it might have started subsiding in 2022. so if you extend that out past the end of the decade into this year, and give that 2022 was the subsiding of that investment boom, then so far the brics countries (brazil, russia, india, china, south africa) are still growing faster than the advanced economies and the overall developing world seems to have been hit less hard so far than the advanced economies

verdict: wrong

Over the next two years Chinese household consumption will continue declining as a share of GDP.

keep in mind he made this prediction in 2011. chart starts at 2010 but the context here is that it had declined from 2008 to 2010 and he was predicting the continuation of that general decline

verdict: wrong

Chinese debt levels will continue to rise quickly over the rest of this year and next.

he goes on to say that what he really is talking about is state owned enterprise debt will balloon up in the early part of the decade

this one is hard for me to find data on. he's really talking about non financial sector debt, which did rise in nominal terms after 2011:

but when you look at leverage ratios, which track with the actual growth of that same sector, it doesnt seem that bad

so idk. im gonna give him partial credit here

verdict: mixed

Chinese growth will begin to slow sharply by 2013-14 and will hit an average of 3% well before the end of the decade.

verdict: wrong

Any decline in GDP growth will disproportionately affect investment and so the demand for non-food commodities.

he goes on to say what he means by this is that interest rates will rise, or at least not fall, and this will mean that inflation rates in china will sharply drop which will also furhter slow gdp growth. he doesnt give any numbers here to evaluate but if we look at inflation rates they got really wacky in the 2008 crisis and then seem to have stabilized to about where they were stabilizing to before 2008. so i dont think he was correct about this

and interest rates did fall, which he predicted they would not

verdict: wrong

If the PBoC resists interest rate cuts as inflation declines, China may even begin slowing in 2012.

see above, pboc did resist interest rate cuts in 2012 but the big slowdown hes talking about didnt happen

verdict: wrong

Much slower growth in China will not lead to social unrest if China meaningfully rebalances.

i'll give him this one, the most social unrest we got was last year during covid lockdowns and it didnt have much to do with slowing gdp growth

verdict: correct

Within three years Beijing will be seriously examining large-scale privatization as part of its adjustment policy.

xi jinping got elected "within 3 years" and pretty much the exact opposite of this happened

verdict: wrong

European politics will continue to deteriorate rapidly and the major political parties will either become increasingly radicalized or marginalized.

i think mr. penis has a better grasp on western politics than china. this basically happened as he predicted

verdict: correct

Spain and several countries, perhaps even Italy (but probably not France) will be forced to leave the euro and restructure their debt with significant debt forgiveness.

i mean, the uk left the eurozone but in his article he predicted that the uk would have much better economic growth that other places in europe and lol at that idea. maybe he just got lucky on the last prediction

verdict: wrong

Germany will stubbornly (and foolishly) refuse to bear its share of the burden of the European adjustment, and the subsequent retaliation by the deficit countries will cause German growth to drop to zero or negative for many years.

i dont know much about it but from what i can tell germany didnt bear its share. but it didnt matter for them because the actual measurable part of this preduction, that german growth drops to 0 or negative for many years:

theyre pretty in line with every other advanced economy

verdict: wrong

Trade protection sentiment in the U.S. will rise inexorably and unemployment stays high for a few more years.

well i think trade protectionism sentiment did rise in the latter half of the decade in the trump years. thats true. but unemployment steadily dropped over the entire decade until covid

verdict: mixed

There is nothing really new in these predictions for regular readers. These are more or less the same predictions � based largely on historical precedent and the logic of the global balance of payments mechanisms � that I have been making for the past five or six years (the past 11 year, when it comes to the breakup of the euro), but I thought it would be helpful, at least for me, to list them.

verdict: lol

all in all i'd say michael penis didnt do a great job predicting the future

As a Pettis apologist, I'll just point out that Pettis isn't some obvious bad faith "China watcher", he's a professor at PKU and has been for a long time, undoubtably many Chinese decision makers have been his students. Hell, his views are generally in line with those of mainstream Chinese economists - I wouldn't think he would still be employed by PKU if they were not. I don't think any policy makers in China disagree that household consumption should be boosted and that reliance on infrastructure and housing should be curtailed, you could even say that things like household consumption has been boosted *because* official policy since 2011 has been in broad strokes a response to these arguments.

# ? Jul 6, 2023 14:16

AnimeIsTrash: Jun 30, 2018

did china collapse???

# ? Jul 6, 2023 14:22

RandolphCarter: Jul 30, 2005

AnimeIsTrash posted:

did china collapse???

like a souffl� in a sitcom

# ? Jul 6, 2023 14:25

Kassad: Nov 12, 2005; It's about time.

AnimeIsTrash posted:

did china collapse???

yes, it's gone man, gone

# ? Jul 6, 2023 14:27

KomradeX: Oct 29, 2011

Throatwarbler posted:

As a Pettis apologist, I'll just point out that Pettis isn't some obvious bad faith "China watcher", he's a professor at PKU and has been for a long time, undoubtably many Chinese decision makers have been his students. Hell, his views are generally in line with those of mainstream Chinese economists - I wouldn't think he would still be employed by PKU if they were not. I don't think any policy makers in China disagree that household consumption should be boosted and that reliance on infrastructure and housing should be curtailed, you could even say that things like household consumption has been boosted *because* official policy since 2011 has been in broad strokes a response to these arguments.

Those leaders probably should be sent to the countryside for re-education if this guy is anything to go by

# ? Jul 6, 2023 14:27

stephenthinkpad: Jan 2, 2020

Oh you guys are talking about Michael Pettis. I thought there is a new guy called Mike Penis.

# ? Jul 6, 2023 14:35

Raskolnikov38: Mar 3, 2007; We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

I�m gay academic Michael penis

# ? Jul 6, 2023 14:37

Megamissen: Jul 19, 2022; any post can be a kannapost
if you want it to be

Raskolnikov38 posted:

I�m gay academic Michael penis

working for the carnegie endowment

# ? Jul 6, 2023 14:43

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

Raskolnikov38 posted:

I�m gay academic Michael penis

# ? Jul 6, 2023 15:10

R. Guyovich: Dec 25, 1991

the question isn't "should china boost household consumption," obviously it should, it's essential for a healthy economy. the pertinent question is "should china dismantle its levers for state-led investment to boost consumption," which has a very clear answer. pettis cloaks the latter question in the language of the former.

# ? Jul 6, 2023 16:00

gradenko_2000: Oct 5, 2010; HELL SERPENT; Lipstick Apathy

catpettis

# ? Jul 6, 2023 16:07

post COVID: Mar 5, 2007; free college, free healthcare, free Shmurda

Artificial intelligence redefines RNA virus discovery

apparently Alibaba Group is also doing AI bioresearch, same as Facebook and Microsoft (at least)

# ? Jul 6, 2023 17:24

Neurolimal: Nov 3, 2012

China: with the power of AI we can sift through millions of sequences, simplifying the process for developing vaccines

America: what if we used AI to get rid of artists

# ? Jul 6, 2023 17:40

stephenthinkpad: Jan 2, 2020

Well someone is using AI to minmax the strongest coronavirus right now.

# ? Jul 6, 2023 17:52

Zodium: Jun 19, 2004

stephenthinkpad posted:

Well someone is using AI to minmax the strongest coronavirus right now.

i am

# ? Jul 6, 2023 18:32

celadon: Jan 2, 2023

modern john henry story where the entirely of mankind is churning covid in the raw, racing the AI's computer generated covid program, to make the omnicide and prove that humanity is more than the machines can ever hope to be

# ? Jul 6, 2023 18:34

Some Guy TT: Aug 30, 2011

indigi posted:

how are domestic flight prices in China? is it like the EU where you can go 1500 miles for under $100 round trip if you fly at the right time, or is it like the US where everything is ridiculous

dirt cheap like seriously fifty bucks whenever and wherever you want if youre looking at a domestic chinese language only airplane website or a sketchy travel agency where the algorithms are tied to what the chinese airlines are actually charging and not what some rear end in a top hat in an office somewhere thinks a white person can afford to pay

# ? Jul 6, 2023 18:35

Slavvy: Dec 11, 2012

stephenthinkpad posted:

Also serious question, can somebody point out where china/vietnam/philippines/SCS are on that Barbie map, I have no loving idea what I am looking at.

Nobody does, it is a manufactured controversy

post COVID posted:

Artificial intelligence redefines RNA virus discovery

apparently Alibaba Group is also doing AI bioresearch, same as Facebook and Microsoft (at least)

I get stuff off of AliExpress all the time and recently I got a widget made by a company named 'technology company limited' makes u think

# ? Jul 6, 2023 18:57

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Slavvy posted:

I get stuff off of AliExpress all the time and recently I got a widget made by a company named 'technology company limited' makes u think

I like my widgets from the Beijing Scared of Wife Technology Company

# ? Jul 6, 2023 21:00

tristeham: Jul 31, 2022

fart simpson posted:

i found that thread favorite michael penis wrote an article in 2011 with a bunch of predictions for "the rest of the decade"
https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/45483

lets go through them one by one and see how he did

BRICS and other developing countries have not decoupled in any meaningful sense, and once the current liquidity-driven investment boom subsides the developing world will be hit hard by the global crisis.

well i dont think the liquidity driven investment boom really subsided within the decade. i guess it might have started subsiding in 2022. so if you extend that out past the end of the decade into this year, and give that 2022 was the subsiding of that investment boom, then so far the brics countries (brazil, russia, india, china, south africa) are still growing faster than the advanced economies and the overall developing world seems to have been hit less hard so far than the advanced economies

verdict: wrong

Over the next two years Chinese household consumption will continue declining as a share of GDP.

keep in mind he made this prediction in 2011. chart starts at 2010 but the context here is that it had declined from 2008 to 2010 and he was predicting the continuation of that general decline

verdict: wrong

Chinese debt levels will continue to rise quickly over the rest of this year and next.

he goes on to say that what he really is talking about is state owned enterprise debt will balloon up in the early part of the decade

this one is hard for me to find data on. he's really talking about non financial sector debt, which did rise in nominal terms after 2011:

but when you look at leverage ratios, which track with the actual growth of that same sector, it doesnt seem that bad

so idk. im gonna give him partial credit here

verdict: mixed

Chinese growth will begin to slow sharply by 2013-14 and will hit an average of 3% well before the end of the decade.

verdict: wrong

Any decline in GDP growth will disproportionately affect investment and so the demand for non-food commodities.

he goes on to say what he means by this is that interest rates will rise, or at least not fall, and this will mean that inflation rates in china will sharply drop which will also furhter slow gdp growth. he doesnt give any numbers here to evaluate but if we look at inflation rates they got really wacky in the 2008 crisis and then seem to have stabilized to about where they were stabilizing to before 2008. so i dont think he was correct about this

and interest rates did fall, which he predicted they would not

verdict: wrong

If the PBoC resists interest rate cuts as inflation declines, China may even begin slowing in 2012.

see above, pboc did resist interest rate cuts in 2012 but the big slowdown hes talking about didnt happen

verdict: wrong

Much slower growth in China will not lead to social unrest if China meaningfully rebalances.

i'll give him this one, the most social unrest we got was last year during covid lockdowns and it didnt have much to do with slowing gdp growth

verdict: correct

Within three years Beijing will be seriously examining large-scale privatization as part of its adjustment policy.

xi jinping got elected "within 3 years" and pretty much the exact opposite of this happened

verdict: wrong

European politics will continue to deteriorate rapidly and the major political parties will either become increasingly radicalized or marginalized.

i think mr. penis has a better grasp on western politics than china. this basically happened as he predicted

verdict: correct

Spain and several countries, perhaps even Italy (but probably not France) will be forced to leave the euro and restructure their debt with significant debt forgiveness.

i mean, the uk left the eurozone but in his article he predicted that the uk would have much better economic growth that other places in europe and lol at that idea. maybe he just got lucky on the last prediction

verdict: wrong

Germany will stubbornly (and foolishly) refuse to bear its share of the burden of the European adjustment, and the subsequent retaliation by the deficit countries will cause German growth to drop to zero or negative for many years.

i dont know much about it but from what i can tell germany didnt bear its share. but it didnt matter for them because the actual measurable part of this preduction, that german growth drops to 0 or negative for many years:

theyre pretty in line with every other advanced economy

verdict: wrong

Trade protection sentiment in the U.S. will rise inexorably and unemployment stays high for a few more years.

well i think trade protectionism sentiment did rise in the latter half of the decade in the trump years. thats true. but unemployment steadily dropped over the entire decade until covid

verdict: mixed

There is nothing really new in these predictions for regular readers. These are more or less the same predictions � based largely on historical precedent and the logic of the global balance of payments mechanisms � that I have been making for the past five or six years (the past 11 year, when it comes to the breakup of the euro), but I thought it would be helpful, at least for me, to list them.

verdict: lol

all in all i'd say michael penis didnt do a great job predicting the future

good work.

# ? Jul 6, 2023 21:05

stephenthinkpad: Jan 2, 2020

What the gently caress is a widget? Fidget toys?

# ? Jul 6, 2023 21:05

wynott dunn: Aug 9, 2006; What is to be done?

Who or what can challenge, and stand a chance at beating, the corporate juggernauts dominating the world?

not much, what�s a widget with you?

# ? Jul 6, 2023 21:16

Cerebral Bore: Apr 21, 2010; Fun Shoe

Slavvy posted:

I get stuff off of AliExpress all the time and recently I got a widget made by a company named 'technology company limited' makes u think

well, where else would you get technology from?

# ? Jul 6, 2023 21:17

stephenthinkpad: Jan 2, 2020

I watched this think tank talk with this guy who lives in Asia.

The host asked a question, "why doesn't Beijing accept competition guard rail the Americans purposed and accept resuming mil-to-mil communication?"

The guest didn't answer the question but gave a long explanation of China. I am not saying I agree with this interpretation but I thought it was interesting.

https://www.youtube.com/live/a43fv76vtIg?feature=share

At 24m

My paraphrasing clipnote version:

The Chinese also have their version of 'exceptionalism' in the framing of Xi's " global civilizational initiative'...they consider themselves with a long 5000 year history...'we are the model for the world, not the American democracy model'....They want to push for a win-win, outcome. They don't accept the American notion of competition with a clear winner and a clear loser

When the Chinese hear about Americans talking about 'the new cold war', they know there is a clear winner and clear loser at the end of the first cold war... So when the Chinese hear about guardrail, mil-to-mil, they think the US just want 'operational safety' and the end game is still cold war 2, the 'so called guardrail you are asking for is you are just asking for room to push pressure on us while you are working on the ultimate goal of winning the cold war 2 and the destruction of the Communist Party. '

# ? Jul 6, 2023 21:24

Truga: May 4, 2014; Lipstick Apathy

fart simpson posted:

verdict: wrong
verdict: wrong
verdict: mixed
verdict: wrong
verdict: wrong
verdict: wrong
verdict: correct
verdict: wrong
verdict: correct
verdict: wrong
verdict: wrong
verdict: mixed
verdict: lol

i wish i had a job where i just make up wrong poo poo and still get paid

# ? Jul 6, 2023 23:40

Ytlaya: Nov 13, 2005

Truga posted:

i wish i had a job where i just make up wrong poo poo and still get paid

When I feel bad about my skills, it helps to at least remember that "bad skills" is still better than "literally no skills at all"

The interesting thing is that people like this actually view what they're doing as meaningful work in a weird sort of axiomatic way. I remember when I was in business school, and there was this general sense that "play-acting as a serious Business Person" was inherently valuable and impressive. Simply by wearing the suit and wielding your PowerPoint and lingo/acronyms, you're Getting Things Done. "Does any of this actually matter" never enters your mind.

# ? Jul 6, 2023 23:54

Fat-Lip-Sum-41.mp3: Nov 15, 2003

stephenthinkpad posted:

When the Chinese hear about Americans talking about 'the new cold war', they know there is a clear winner and clear loser at the end of the first cold war... So when the Chinese hear about guardrail, mil-to-mil, they think the US just want 'operational safety' and the end game is still cold war 2, the 'so called guardrail you are asking for is you are just asking for room to push pressure on us while you are working on the ultimate goal of winning the cold war 2 and the destruction of the Communist Party. '

the "not being born yesterday" defense. very un-liberal.

# ? Jul 7, 2023 00:01

eSports Chaebol: Feb 22, 2005; Yeah, actually, gamers in the house forever,

stephenthinkpad posted:

Also serious question, can somebody point out where china/vietnam/philippines/SCS are on that Barbie map, I have no loving idea what I am looking at.

from what I can tell the dashed line indicates that China is laying claim to Severnaya, presumably to capture the GoldenEye control facility

# ? Jul 7, 2023 00:12

Some Guy TT: Aug 30, 2011

China's highest-ranking diplomat urged Japan and South Korea to cooperate more closely with Beijing, saying they can change their looks but will "never become Westerners."

"It doesn't matter how much you dye your hair blonde, how sharp you make your nose, you'll never become Europeans or Americans. You'll never become Westerners," Wang Yi told South Korean and Japanese guests at a conference in Qingdao on Monday.

"We have to know where our roots are," the diplomat said, according to a recording of the conversation shared by Chinese media.

Most Europeans and Americans aren't able to tell Chinese, Japanese, or Korean people apart, Wang added.

Wang, who was speaking at the annual International Forum for Trilateral Cooperation, said the three nations should raise a "clear signal" that they want to work together, adding that they should resist a "Cold War mentality" and push back against "bullying and hegemony."

The diplomat's comments come amid rocky US-China relations over Taiwan, chip restrictions, and accusations of Beijing spying on the US with a balloon. Tensions continued to sour in June as President Joe Biden called Chinese leader Xi Jinping a "dictator," as State Secretary Antony Blinken visited Beijing to ease the relationship between both nations.

South Korea and Japan, close US allies, have recently publicly aligned with Washington on several hot-button issues, releasing joint statements with the White House on Taiwan in the last two years. Both nations have also conducted high-profile military drills with the US this year.

Washington has sought to curb China's growing influence in the rest of Asia, as Beijing pursues closer ties with countries like Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar.

# ? Jul 7, 2023 00:20

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 23, 2024 12:12

Delta-Wye: Sep 29, 2005

Some Guy TT posted:

"It doesn't matter ... how sharp you make your nose, you'll never become Europeans or Americans. You'll never become Westerners,"

# ? Jul 7, 2023 00:51

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Asia/Oceania] Yellen says she hopes China wont mount retaliation against any steps Washington takes

«‹›3001 »