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Mellow Seas posted:lol, here is an article about Della Volpe predicting doom for Democrats because they alienated the youth… from April 2022. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/10/democrats-youth-vote-2022-midterms-john-della-volpe-00024264 That's peculiar because he's now saying in 2023 that he had predicted historic levels youth turnout for 2022 quote:“Nearly every sign that made me confident in historic levels of youth participation in 2018, 2020, and 2022 — is now flashing red,” he wrote. It's even stranger given the strength of his methodology quote:Della Volpe also regularly runs focus groups, which makes him “extremely effective at going beyond percentages and crosstabs — a much more nuanced way of getting to the true viewpoint,” noted Matt Barreto, a Democratic pollster who worked with Della Volpe on the Biden campaign. This dude is strictly vibes based and can gently caress off imo.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:01 |
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# ? May 24, 2024 06:24 |
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Most people don't charge political affiliation their entire life. Youth shouldn't be treated as a voting bloc but as members of others.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:06 |
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Strategy-chat reminded me that I recently came across a strategy memo from Mike Lux & Celinda Lake, the renown consultants for the Democrats:quote:TO: Interested Parties https://web.archive.org/web/20230518021607/https://www.lakeresearch.com/com/democrats-could-win-a-trifecta-in-2024 Their points echo a lot of the ones we've discussed.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:07 |
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Willa Rogers posted:Really? Because I remember it as the opposite: Democrats feeling energized that they'd secured a winning issue that would propel voters to the polls, a strategy that mostly was borne out by the midterms. Those absolutely existed too. But they had very little overlap with "Remember Roe vs. Wade died under Democrats" or "you know, Trump gave me more money" and whatever else in the same year: that came mostly from the same people who predicted red waves in 2018 and 2020. On the internet it costs nothing to bet on blackpill every spin, since if you lose you can always come up with an excuse why that doesn't count and if you win once ever you're the tortured Cassandra who told everyone so.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:09 |
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zoux posted:That's peculiar because he's now saying in 2023 that he had predicted historic levels youth turnout for 2022 Focus groups are a valuable way of getting comprehensive feedback from representatives of particular demographics. In fact, Lux & Lake, whose memo I laid out above, do a lot of focus-group testing on issues & to develop particular strategies. eta: from their website quote:Research Tools Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 17:18 on Jul 13, 2023 |
# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:11 |
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koolkal posted:I think the election is largely going to come down to how the economy changes over the next year and change They have been extremely aggressive in raising rates, to the point that I am inclined to think Powell kind of considers a recession to be a feature rather than a bug of lowering inflation. The June inflation report (Leon posted it yesterday) was good enough that it might force them to hold off on another rate increase. But they really seem to be enjoying the process of raising them, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they find some justification to keep going.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:12 |
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https://twitter.com/SenMarcoRubio/status/1679266471560577027 https://twitter.com/SenMarcoRubio/status/1679266499230400517 I don't agree that we should mandate neo-classicism but I do agree with these individual aesthetic assessments.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:16 |
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Biden is a very weak candidate* and the Democratic Party has all kinds of problems stemming from their sclerotic leadership, but none of that is a good reason to take RFK Jr. seriously. *who will have zero difficulty securing the Democratic nomination for president.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:18 |
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zoux posted:I don't agree that we should mandate neo-classicism but I do agree with these individual aesthetic assessments. Fascists loving love neoclassical buildings They're so insecure they need a big stone edifice to make them feel legit
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:20 |
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Mellow Seas posted:They have been extremely aggressive in raising rates, to the point that I am inclined to think Powell kind of considers a recession to be a feature rather than a bug of lowering inflation. Mellow Seas posted:The June inflation report (Leon posted it yesterday) was good enough that it might force them to hold off on another rate increase. But they really seem to be enjoying the process of raising them, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they find some justification to keep going. They are absolutely raising rates more. I'd be shocked if they don't raise rates in the July meeting. The market implied probability of a hike is "95%". Take that with a grain of salt, but yesterdays CPI release did not budge the needle. I would also note that the inflation metric that the Fed cares most about is PCE while the inflation rate most cited by the media is CPI, which obscures central bank thinking. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:21 |
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zoux posted:I don't agree that we should mandate neo-classicism but I do agree with these individual aesthetic assessments. There's something pinging in my brain about obesssion with neo-classical styles, but I also agree that those two buildings are loving ugly. The California building at least it feels like it was *trying* for something beyond "lowest cost bid."
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:24 |
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koolkal posted:I think the election is largely going to come down to how the economy changes over the next year and change The economy is always a big one, this is kind of a gimme. Specifically for young voters, I have a feeling it's going to be a combination of Student Loan Forgiveness Round 2: How We Plan To Get It Done This Time, and Roe v. Wade/SCOTUS reform. If someone can come with with a good pitch for addressing housing and CoL geared towards rent relief, that could also be a big one. I just have no idea what the actual pitch would look like.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:29 |
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The things that make the San Francisco building "ugly" are for energy efficiency. It's pure fascist brain to whine about how modern (when it was built) technology is uglier than old stone buildings.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:30 |
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Twincityhacker posted:There's something pinging in my brain about obesssion with neo-classical styles, but I also agree that those two buildings are loving ugly. The California building at least it feels like it was *trying* for something beyond "lowest cost bid." I think it looks fine other than those three windows in the center. I like the general structure though But yeah it's just fascist whining not everything has to be Roman inspired
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:30 |
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Jaxyon posted:Fascists loving love neoclassical buildings Then they should love brutalism
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:33 |
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Also brutalist buildings tend to be beautiful and well designed, it's just all inside the building where people are you know, using it.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:35 |
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zoux posted:Then they should love brutalism They only like the white stones, the grey ones are too communist
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:35 |
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zoux posted:Then they should love brutalism Yeah, but they want their big stone buildings as a romantic symbol calling back to the glorious and better past that exists in their minds. Brutalism is getting old enough to do that with, but most of the people with that mindset who like it are Stalinists or Nazbols.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:41 |
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The majority of new buildings put up tend to be hideous, and you largely can't even tell what part of the country/world they're even from because they all look the same and could be literally anywhere. Seems like a depressing time to be an architect.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:43 |
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Mustang posted:The majority of new buildings put up tend to be hideous, and you largely can't even tell what part of the country/world they're even from because they all look the same and could be literally anywhere. Eh, an architect today is going to be designing with goals other than pure aesthetics in mind anyway. Energy efficiency is one focus of modern design, as is the use of green building materials, improved accessibility, etc. Think of the Aeron chair - when Herman Miller introduced it back in the 1990s, people thought it was a highly functional chair, but very ugly. I think a few people were even quoted as saying something along the lines of "It's very functional, but let me know when you have a finished product." Today the Aeron is considered a hallmark of industrial design, and one of them sits in the MOMA in NYC. We're seeing the same thing with architecture - buildings are being designed for improved performance first, and aesthetic appeal second.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:50 |
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Mellow Seas posted:Yes, if you just flat-out ignore any realities whatsoever about the basic functions and structure of our federalist system of government, the Dems are bad on those issues. If you have a problem figuring out whether you're for me or Trump, then you ain't trans
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:58 |
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Shooting Blanks posted:The economy is always a big one, this is kind of a gimme. What SCOTUS reform are they running on? I've heard nothing official. "Vote blue no matter who and maybe in 30-40 years there will be an outside chance at a possibility of maybe having the opportunity to investigate fixing it by maybe getting a chance to appoint replacements when the current proto-fascists in there now get tired of taking bribes and decide to retire. If Republicans don't ratfuck us again to maintain their hold on power." is the complete extent of every serious proposal on court reform I've heard mentioned outside of think pieces and a few house representatives that get ignored. Maybe I'm missing the messaging on this one and that'd be cool if true but I'm going to take some convincing to believe they've learned a lesson on this poo poo. Even student debt is so far setting the same expectations. Sure it looks like they're gonna try Student Loan 2: Debt Boogaloo, and then the court is going to poo poo on it again by finding someone in Botswana who thinks their uncle's dog might get a hangnail if it passes so they'll have standing to let the court declare it null and void. Again. At some point they have to sack up and *do something*. poo poo, right now and for 2024 they could possibly even get away with just talking about doing something as that alone would be a momentous sea change from the current approach. People living daily with everything from frustration to terror that they'll be un-personed by 6 robed law wizards are getting mighty god drat sick and tired of having them throw up their hands and point out what SCOTUS did again. Yeah, we know, they loving suck and are going to keep doing this poo poo for decades. So now what?
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:07 |
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bird food bathtub posted:What SCOTUS reform are they running on? I've heard nothing official. They are voting on a law to implement a new enforceable Scotus code of ethics next week. It won't pass the House. It subjects the SCOTUS judges to the same disclosure and gift limit rules that members of congress are subject to, allows the public to submit ethics complaints that a randomly selected panel of lower court judges would review, and impose recusal rules that would mandate recusing from cases when someone involved has provided gifts, income and other potential conflicts to a justice. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/senate-democrats-announce-vote-advance-supreme-court-ethics-bill-rcna93486
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:12 |
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RealityWarCriminal posted:If you have a problem figuring out whether you're for me or Trump, then you ain't trans In terms of actual data 81% of the LGBT vote went to Biden and I assume it was higher among trans people, both because they are more persecuted by conservatives and because (non-closeted) trans people skew younger.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:15 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:They are voting on a law to implement a new enforceable Scotus code of ethics next week. It won't pass the House. Sounds like a good start. Is there anything else? Do they plan on adding judges?
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:15 |
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I think it's silly to presume any group owes their vote. It was silly when Biden said it and he got roasted for it. Since then we've learned nothing. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:17 |
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Willa Rogers posted:NBC News ran a piece about younger voters this cycle. Highlights bolded instead of restated. I hate these polls because they never do the simplest thing and ask a follow up question for the favorable/unfavorable. They never want to find out if these people who are unenthused for Biden, are unenthused because he isn't left enough, or because he is too far left. (If I am wrong I'd love to see more national-level polls) So now we get to trudge through another election season of hand-wringing articles about 'why don't the youth vote?!' and the evergreen conclusion of 'tack more towards the center to get moderates!' instead of getting actual answers.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:18 |
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theCalamity posted:Sounds like a good start. Is there anything else? Do they plan on adding judges? Nope, that's the only SCOTUS bill they are voting on right now. I don't think there is a significant majority of support for adding judges. They were talking about 18-year term limits, but haven't put it into a bill yet.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:19 |
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theCalamity posted:Sounds like a good start. Is there anything else? Do they plan on adding judges? Explain to me how they would add judges to the Supreme Court. Like walk me through the legislative procedure in 2023 that results in that outcome.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:19 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Nope, that's the only SCOTUS bill they are voting on right now. If the recusal bill is the only thing, that's pretty weak. There's an appetite for more than just that. I don't think there is a significant majority of support either, but that's kind of the issue, right? The democrats aren't really down for something like that. Term limits would be good and I hope they do it, but I'll believe when I see it.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:24 |
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zoux posted:Explain to me how they would add judges to the Supreme Court. Like walk me through the legislative procedure in 2023 that results in that outcome. That would be a heavy lift, certainly impossible in 2023, by contrast the Senate Dems Supreme Court ethics bill will also never pass in 2023, would never accomplish anything if it did and would be adjudicated as unconstitutional. Adding seats is the only legal way to reform the court, full stop, anything else is window dressing. DynamicSloth fucked around with this message at 18:28 on Jul 13, 2023 |
# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:24 |
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bird food bathtub posted:What SCOTUS reform are they running on? I've heard nothing official. "Vote blue no matter who and maybe in 30-40 years there will be an outside chance at a possibility of maybe having the opportunity to investigate fixing it There are other ways besides SCOTUS to promote national access to abortion, as well. You can fight in the states, where the bans are unpopular. You can try to maintain access to abortion medication. States can create programs to help people travel for abortions. We don’t have to just sit around twiddling our thumbs waiting for justices to die. I would be surprised if Roe is replaced by a similar court decision, because in “30 to 40 years,”* or whenever Dems have control again, the national abortion situation is going to be different in ways we can’t anticipate. * it could easily be as little as 10; Thomas and Alito are old, if not by “rich guy” standards. I regret to inform people who find the word hilarious that this will require people “VOTE!” for Dems, however.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:27 |
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zoux posted:Yes but if they ran for the things that I like then they would excite the youth vote. No I am not young. FYI, because it's funny: Cocaine stays in a person's system only 3 days. https://americanaddictioncenters.org/cocaine-treatment/how-long-in-system
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:33 |
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Mellow Seas posted:You realize that Roe was repealed explicitly because Republicans were able to focus on the goal of changing the court over the course of 50 years, right? Sometimes things in politics take a while. Giving up and giving in because something will take too long is self-defeating. Didn't the Dems have the chance to actually make it legal across the country to get an abortion?
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:35 |
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PostNouveau posted:FYI, because it's funny: Cocaine stays in a person's system only 3 days. What about a hair test https://twitter.com/halbritz/status/1679539767732494353 One thing I'd be in favor of is jettisoning these traditions that give single senators the ability to gently caress everything up but it won't happen because every single senator wants to reserve the right to unilaterally gently caress everything up one day. theCalamity posted:Didn't the Dems have the chance to actually make it legal across the country to get an abortion? What? Through what means?
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:35 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Nope, that's the only SCOTUS bill they are voting on right now.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:36 |
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zoux posted:What about a hair test Oh, could be years for a hair test so I've now swung back to supporting Rep. Magic The Gathering in her quest to get hair from 500 White House staffers.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:37 |
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RealityWarCriminal posted:I think it's silly to presume any group owes their vote. It was silly when Biden said it and he got roasted for it. Since then we've learned nothing. I didn’t say “you ain’t trans,” or anything like it. Those are words you put in my mouth. I never have and never will question anybody’s gender identity. Your response has (possibly less than) nothing to do with my observation that if you want an abortion or are trans, there is a very, very good chance that you would prefer a Democrat be in office. Which is amply statistically supported, and intuitively and observationally true.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:38 |
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zoux posted:What? Through what means? Probably pretty similar to the Freedom of Choice Act I'd imagine.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:39 |
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# ? May 24, 2024 06:24 |
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theCalamity posted:Didn't the Dems have the chance to actually make it legal across the country to get an abortion? The court would just obviously declare that law unconstitutional anyway, on shaky “state’s rights” grounds, wouldn’t they? Like, how would they possibly not? Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 18:43 on Jul 13, 2023 |
# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:40 |