USCE 2023: Please let them shove a camera up your butt

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zoux: Apr 28, 2006

Mellow Seas posted:

lol, here is an article about Della Volpe predicting doom for Democrats because they alienated the youth� from April 2022. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/10/democrats-youth-vote-2022-midterms-john-della-volpe-00024264

That's peculiar because he's now saying in 2023 that he had predicted historic levels youth turnout for 2022

quote:

�Nearly every sign that made me confident in historic levels of youth participation in 2018, 2020, and 2022 � is now flashing red,� he wrote.

It's even stranger given the strength of his methodology

quote:

Della Volpe also regularly runs focus groups, which makes him �extremely effective at going beyond percentages and crosstabs � a much more nuanced way of getting to the true viewpoint,� noted Matt Barreto, a Democratic pollster who worked with Della Volpe on the Biden campaign.

Indeed, Della Volpe�s interest is less focused on quantitative feedback than on stories, describing it as �almost a kind of political therapy.� He zeroed in on how Gen Z is defined by anxiety through key events, including Trump�s election in 2016 and the Parkland school shooting in 2018. It has made them suspicious of institutions and impatient for change, he wrote in his book, �Fight: How Gen Z Is Channeling Their Fear and Passion to Save America.�

In recent focus groups conducted over Zoom with two dozen Gen Zers, Della Volpe started by asking them to share something good that had happened to them recently. He followed up by asking if they felt like their personal lives were on the right track, and if they weren�t, why? He asked them about their mental health, the pressures and stresses they face. In both 90-minute sessions, it took nearly an hour before he explicitly asked about politics or politicians.

This dude is strictly vibes based and can gently caress off imo.

# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:01

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# ? May 23, 2024 19:42

Gumball Gumption: Jan 7, 2012

Most people don't charge political affiliation their entire life. Youth shouldn't be treated as a voting bloc but as members of others.

# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:06

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

Strategy-chat reminded me that I recently came across a strategy memo from Mike Lux & Celinda Lake, the renown consultants for the Democrats:

quote:

TO: Interested Parties

FR: Mike Lux + Celinda Lake

RE: Democrats Could Win a Trifecta in 2024

If we do the basic blocking and tackling of great field and GOTV work, and focus on executing an effective strategy for working-class voters, all the elements are in place for a big Democratic victory in 2024.

That statement will likely come as a surprise to some Democrats, as there seems to be a culture of worry in our party not borne out by the underlying political dynamics in play. We don�t intend to minimize the challenges. Every election cycle has some tough things to deal with, and obviously, the negative consequences have never been so high if we do lose. But as two strategists who were more confident than most that 2022 would be a decent election cycle for Democrats, we believe that if we focus on winning instead of worrying, we will win the 2024 election in solid fashion.

The Challenges That We Can Overcome

Let�s start with the challenges we know exist, and focus on how to overcome them:

1. The approval rating. Yes, Joe Biden�s approval rating has been in the low 40s for a long time now. But let�s note the following things:

His approval rating was in the low 40s in November of 2022, and Democrats did far better than expected and is typical for a president�s party in the midterms.

Bill Clinton�s and Barack Obama�s approval ratings were very low early in the re-election cycle too, and they both won decisive re-election victories. Clinton�s approval rating fell as low as 42% in 1995, while Obama�s approval rating was 44% at this time in 2011.

Republicans ran hundreds of millions of dollars last year attacking Biden on inflation and crime and a host of other issues, trying to tie local Democratic candidates to him. It didn�t work particularly well as an electoral strategy, but when you are being attacked night and day, and no one is running ads on your behalf, your approval ratings tend to go down.

No national politician in America has had especially good approval ratings for a while now. Americans are in a pretty cynical mood about everyone, and every institution as well.

So how do we improve Biden�s approval ratings? By holding events all over the country telling people about the very popular policies that have been successfully put in place, and by pushing out a compelling message based on improving people�s lives.

2. The age thing. Yes, voters have some concerns about the president's age. However, when they see the president getting things done, when they see him traveling the country, when they see him engaging the debate in the way he did in the SOTU, those fears recede. At the end of the day, voters care more about results and the agenda than about anything else.

3. The Senate map. Yes, it is a challenging map. The Democratic Party has a brand problem in rural America and with working-class voters outside of big metro areas, the �Factory Town� voters that we have done a lot of research and writing about in recent years. This makes winning states like West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana that much tougher, although those states have never been easy. But Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) has a +9 approval rating (44% approve/35 disapprove), and Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) currently has a 58% approval rating, and is leading in the 2024 polls, according to recent Morning Consult polling. Polls show Democratic Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (AZ-03) with a decisive lead over independent Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) and a Republican challenger. All polls show these three key Democrats ahead. The Republicans have serious problems with Trump candidates and aggressive primaries shaping up. The Democrats who are up in most states for re-election have all beat the presidential numbers by 8 to 12 points.

While these challenges are real, they can be overcome, and the problems are overstated. Remember that this same tough Senate map produced a net of five Democratic pick-ups in the 2000 election, which Gore narrowly lost to Bush; six Democratic pick-ups in 2006, allowing Democrats to retake the Senate; and two more in 2012. If we have a good election year overall, we have a very good chance at Democrats holding the Senate.

There�s been a lot of hay made over all the seats Democrats have to defend in battleground states, but we had strong years in Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania last year, and strong Senate candidates running in all three states. In Arizona, we also had a strong year, winning all the big statewide races. While the Sinema dynamic complicates things, she is solidly unpopular among both Democrats and independents. Gallego is currently ahead in either a two-way or three-way race in every public poll.

In the three reddest states where there is a Democratic incumbent in the Senate, Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia, all of the incumbents have a strong and well-liked brand and have proven their ability to win over and over again in challenging circumstances.

Finally, while all the Republican held Senate seats are red in nature, there are some interesting possibilities out there. Ted Cruz (TX), Rick Scott (FL), and Josh Hawley (MO) are all pretty unpopular candidates. Cruz is facing a particularly compelling challenger in Colin Allred, a congressman and former pro football player who brought in an impressive $2 million in fundraising in the first 36 hours after announcing his candidacy. The Cruz-Allred race will undoubtedly be expensive, and will force Republicans to expend money to defend home turf that they would prefer to spend elsewhere.

4. The House map. Yes, Republicans currently hold the House, but unless Democrats do something very wrong, we are poised to take it back. There are 18 seats held by Republicans that Biden won, and in a presidential election year with higher Democratic turnout, we have a very good chance at a lot of those seats. We only need five seats to take the lead; there are more than three times that many up for grabs in crossover districts. And there are several districts that Biden didn�t win, like the Boebert seat in Colorado, where we have strong candidates and a very good chance to win.

5. Voter suppression. This, too, is a serious problem. Republicans have made it clear that they want to curb the youth vote in particular. The good news is that in big, close races where the Democrats and allied progressive groups have the resources to turn people out, we have shown the ability to still get high Democratic voter turnout and win elections. We need to prioritize GOTV and protect the vote in a big way, but as long as the resources are there, we can make it happen.

6. Worries about the economy. We don�t know where the economy is going to be heading into election season 15 months from now. There are always things to worry about in the kind of period in which we are living. The economy is complicated and worrisome, with a hundred different factors pulling in different directions.

But the fact is that the economy, despite all the hurdles, remains in solid shape. The unemployment rate is at record lows, jobs continue to be created at a steady pace (building on a record number of jobs created in the first two years of a presidency), inflation is easing. And the reason that things are good despite all these countervailing pressures is that the Biden administration and Democrats in Congress chose to pass a series of bills that made a $4 trillion dollar investment in the American people, with the vast majority of the money targeted to low and middle-income working families.

Democrats have delivered on important kitchen table economics issues important to working families. That unprecedented investment is going to keep the economy moving forward. We need at every level to highlight these investments and relentlessly say that this is not good enough until the economy is thriving for everyone.

Even if there is a slowdown before the next election, Democrats can point to all they have done and all that they want to do to continue to make things better in the future; drawing a populist contrast with the terrible things the Republicans want to do in order to further enrich wealthy corporations and their billionaire owners. Just as a populist message about corporate price gouging helped stave off Republican attacks on inflation in 2022, a populist message will help us win the 2024 election despite the latest economic twists and turns.

Why the Fundamentals Favor the Democrats Again This Year

American presidential elections in this historical period tend to be competitive and hard fought. 2024 will be no different. We can take nothing for granted: we will need an all-out effort to turn out every Democratic vote and convince every swing voter in the battleground states and districts.

Having said that, despite the challenges listed above, the underlying dynamics in this race tend to favor the Democrats. Here�s why:

1. There are more Democratic voters and leaners than there are Republican voters and leaners. By every significant measure we know of, there are simply more of us than there are of them. Democrats have won the popular vote in every presidential election but one since 1992. Democrats control the Senate despite the huge advantages toward small rural states. We are in a minority in the House by a historically narrow margin, and had control the last four years, in spite of the massive edge the Republicans have had in gerrymandering. Less frequent voters, especially young people, also strongly favor Democrats. And we have done better than Republicans three election cycles in a row; even when we lost in 2016, Clinton won the popular vote by over 2 million votes. Democrats are out-performing their usual margins, and are turning out in higher numbers than usual in most of the 2023 elections so far, resulting in big wins in elections like the Wisconsin Supreme Court race.

2. The abortion issue is very powerful and Republicans are stuck on the wrong side of it. The Wisconsin Supreme Court race made it clear that the issue of whether women get to decide when to have their children is not going away, and it�s not lessening as a priority for women voters. The fight over abortion pills and draconian state measures is only going to focus more attention and energy around the issue. And for all the efforts of some Republicans to take modest steps to move to the middle rhetorically, their party is stuck on the wrong side of history and voters: their far right base is going to force them to continue embracing the anti-abortion cause. This will help with turnout and young women and unmarried women who vote very Democratically, and persuasion of swing suburban women for whom this is a decisive issue.

3. What Biden and the Democrats have accomplished with their policy successes over the last two years is going to be reinforced over and over again. Democrats will still have to keep getting their message out in a variety of ways about their accomplishments � they will not get the credit they deserve automatically � but their policy accomplishments are going to be seen by people all over the country every day for the next 17 months. Every new bridge that is built, every road that is repaired, every airport that is improved, every new silicon chip or solar factory that opens, every time people purchase lower priced insulin: every time is a chance for Democrats to remind people of what we are accomplishing for them.

4. People who vote tend to like freedom and voting. Okay, this shouldn�t be that shocking, but maybe it is to Republicans: people who vote tend to value voting and the rest of the democratic process. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the saving democracy issue helped Democrats in a big way in 2022, possibly second only to abortion rights. It should be noted that Democrats won seven out of seven secretary of state races in battleground states last year. The speech on democracy President Biden gave in Philadelphia right before Election Day was a big factor in turning the tide. And freedom -- reproductive freedom, the freedom to vote, the freedom to read whatever you want to read, the freedom to build a good life for you and your family -- is one of the core values of American voters.

5. Populist economics trumps culture wars. Among the key group of working-class �Factory Town� voters that Republicans and Democrats are fiercely competing for, the Democrats� economic message blows the Republicans� culture war message out of the water (by a margin of +10 points in our latest research). There are many winnable voters in these small to midsize former industrial counties that went to Trump because of his populist economic rhetoric � they couldn�t care less about the LGBT attacks the Republican Party is so focused on pushing today. Keep in mind as well that the working-class voters Republicans are targeting with culture war messages are actually pro-choice, pro-outlawing AR-15s, and anti-book burning. If Republicans continue to campaign mainly on culture war issues, Democrats can and should beat them with populist economics.

6. We are winning a lot more than we are losing in the most competitive battleground states. Across the eight key battleground states in next year�s presidential race, we won most of the important statewide races in 2022. The most red outlier was Georgia, where we won the crucial Senate race everyone was targeting, but lost all the other statewide races. We narrowly lost two Senate seats in North Carolina and Wisconsin. We lost two governor races in Nevada and in New Hampshire, which was never competitive with Sununu running.

Every other key statewide race in the battleground states we won, including some of the most hotly contested races in the country: Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania Senate; Michigan and Wisconsin governor; Minnesota attorney general (where the successful prosecutor of George Floyd�s killers, Keith Ellison, was being savaged by police unions); and Arizona governor, Senate, attorney general, and Secretary of State, which were crucial to win because of the extreme, election denying candidates Republicans put forward.

Bringing Home a Decisive Victory in 2024

Nothing about the 2024 election will be easy. There will be challenges in abundance, some we already know about and some that will come up in the months ahead. But if we stay focused on two major tasks, we will win races up and down the ballot; we will successfully defend the Senate in spite of that tough map; we will retake the House with a solid majority; and we will win the presidency once again.

The first task is to turn out our voters in record fashion, just like we did in the 2018 and 2020 elections. Democratic voters tend to be harder to turn out than Republican voters. People of color, young people, and unmarried women have all historically been less likely to vote, and we need to make a very big investment to get their votes out. The Democratic Party and campaigns will make a big effort toward GOTV, but the entire progressive movement and progressive donor world needs to support those efforts as well.

The second task is to make a major investment in winning the hearts and minds of working-class voters. Based on the work we have done in the Factory Towns project, as well as other data we have seen, we are convinced that there is a strong, effective strategy for gaining ground with working-class voters that Democrats have been struggling to win in recent elections. A strategy based on economic populism, community building, and person-to-person organizing starting early in the election cycle will pay real dividends, and help us make significant progress with these voters, which will make victory in 2024 far more likely.

Democrats need to understand that we can win big in 2024. It will take a lot of hard work, significant financial investment, and the right strategy, but we go into this election with a lot of confidence that we have a strong chance at a Democratic trifecta.

https://web.archive.org/web/20230518021607/https://www.lakeresearch.com/com/democrats-could-win-a-trifecta-in-2024

Their points echo a lot of the ones we've discussed.

# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:07

Killer robot: Sep 6, 2010; I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!; Pillbug

Willa Rogers posted:

Really? Because I remember it as the opposite: Democrats feeling energized that they'd secured a winning issue that would propel voters to the polls, a strategy that mostly was borne out by the midterms.

Those absolutely existed too. But they had very little overlap with "Remember Roe vs. Wade died under Democrats" or "you know, Trump gave me more money" and whatever else in the same year: that came mostly from the same people who predicted red waves in 2018 and 2020. On the internet it costs nothing to bet on blackpill every spin, since if you lose you can always come up with an excuse why that doesn't count and if you win once ever you're the tortured Cassandra who told everyone so.

# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:09

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

zoux posted:

That's peculiar because he's now saying in 2023 that he had predicted historic levels youth turnout for 2022

It's even stranger given the strength of his methodology

This dude is strictly vibes based and can gently caress off imo.

Focus groups are a valuable way of getting comprehensive feedback from representatives of particular demographics.

In fact, Lux & Lake, whose memo I laid out above, do a lot of focus-group testing on issues & to develop particular strategies.

eta: from their website

quote:

Research Tools
At LRP, our projects are conducted by teams, including partners/VPs and groups of analysts, supported by Field and Programming divisions. We employ a wide, and ever-expanding, range of research tools in order to deliver meaningful and actionable findings. Research approaches include:

* Surveys via:

-- landline and cells;
-- online panels;
-- SMS/text-based and text-to-online;
-- in-person intercepts

* Focus groups, mini-groups, triads, and dyads

* One-on-one interviews, including elite executive, stakeholder, and expert interviews

* Online Qual boards

* Website evaluation

* Social Media Research: Content Analysis, Social Listening, and List Building

All of our various qualitative research can be conducted in-person, online, and via phone, and�in contrast to much of our competition�all of our qualitative research is conducted by professionally trained LRP moderators, matched to participants along key variables, including gender, race/ethnicity, and age, in order to ensure the most honest, candid discussion, feedback, and insights from our participants.

Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 17:18 on Jul 13, 2023

# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:11

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

koolkal posted:

I think the election is largely going to come down to how the economy changes over the next year and change

People say it's always about the economy but it seems like it will actually be the biggest driver by far this cycle

And the Federal Reserve is the biggest factor in that right now since Congress is deadlocked

They have been extremely aggressive in raising rates, to the point that I am inclined to think Powell kind of considers a recession to be a feature rather than a bug of lowering inflation. The June inflation report (Leon posted it yesterday) was good enough that it might force them to hold off on another rate increase. But they really seem to be enjoying the process of raising them, so I wouldn�t be surprised if they find some justification to keep going.

# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:12

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/SenMarcoRubio/status/1679266471560577027

https://twitter.com/SenMarcoRubio/status/1679266499230400517

I don't agree that we should mandate neo-classicism but I do agree with these individual aesthetic assessments.

# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:16

DynamicSloth: Jul 30, 2006; "Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

Biden is a very weak candidate* and the Democratic Party has all kinds of problems stemming from their sclerotic leadership, but none of that is a good reason to take RFK Jr. seriously.

*who will have zero difficulty securing the Democratic nomination for president.

# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:18

Jaxyon: Mar 7, 2016; I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

zoux posted:

I don't agree that we should mandate neo-classicism but I do agree with these individual aesthetic assessments.

Fascists loving love neoclassical buildings

They're so insecure they need a big stone edifice to make them feel legit

# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:20

plogo: Jan 20, 2009

Mellow Seas posted:

They have been extremely aggressive in raising rates, to the point that I am inclined to think Powell kind of considers a recession to be a feature rather than a bug of lowering inflation.

The philps curve logic / scars of the seventies inflation are extremely strong in central bank brains, so they view the strong labor market as very dangerous.

Mellow Seas posted:

The June inflation report (Leon posted it yesterday) was good enough that it might force them to hold off on another rate increase. But they really seem to be enjoying the process of raising them, so I wouldn�t be surprised if they find some justification to keep going.

They are absolutely raising rates more. I'd be shocked if they don't raise rates in the July meeting.

The market implied probability of a hike is "95%". Take that with a grain of salt, but yesterdays CPI release did not budge the needle. I would also note that the inflation metric that the Fed cares most about is PCE while the inflation rate most cited by the media is CPI, which obscures central bank thinking.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:21

Twincityhacker: Feb 18, 2011

zoux posted:

I don't agree that we should mandate neo-classicism but I do agree with these individual aesthetic assessments.

There's something pinging in my brain about obesssion with neo-classical styles, but I also agree that those two buildings are loving ugly. The California building at least it feels like it was *trying* for something beyond "lowest cost bid."

# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:24

Shooting Blanks: Jun 6, 2007; Real bullets mess up how cool this thing looks.

-Blade

koolkal posted:

I think the election is largely going to come down to how the economy changes over the next year and change

People say it's always about the economy but it seems like it will actually be the biggest driver by far this cycle

And the Federal Reserve is the biggest factor in that right now since Congress is deadlocked

The economy is always a big one, this is kind of a gimme.

Specifically for young voters, I have a feeling it's going to be a combination of Student Loan Forgiveness Round 2: How We Plan To Get It Done This Time, and Roe v. Wade/SCOTUS reform. If someone can come with with a good pitch for addressing housing and CoL geared towards rent relief, that could also be a big one. I just have no idea what the actual pitch would look like.

# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:29

Gumball Gumption: Jan 7, 2012

The things that make the San Francisco building "ugly" are for energy efficiency. It's pure fascist brain to whine about how modern (when it was built) technology is uglier than old stone buildings.

# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:30

RBA Starblade: Apr 28, 2008; Going Home.

Games Idiot Court Jester

Twincityhacker posted:

There's something pinging in my brain about obesssion with neo-classical styles, but I also agree that those two buildings are loving ugly. The California building at least it feels like it was *trying* for something beyond "lowest cost bid."

I think it looks fine other than those three windows in the center. I like the general structure though

But yeah it's just fascist whining not everything has to be Roman inspired

# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:30

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

Jaxyon posted:

Fascists loving love neoclassical buildings

They're so insecure they need a big stone edifice to make them feel legit

Then they should love brutalism

# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:33

Gumball Gumption: Jan 7, 2012

Also brutalist buildings tend to be beautiful and well designed, it's just all inside the building where people are you know, using it.

# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:35

Gumball Gumption: Jan 7, 2012

zoux posted:

Then they should love brutalism

They only like the white stones, the grey ones are too communist

# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:35

Killer robot: Sep 6, 2010; I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!; Pillbug

zoux posted:

Then they should love brutalism

Yeah, but they want their big stone buildings as a romantic symbol calling back to the glorious and better past that exists in their minds. Brutalism is getting old enough to do that with, but most of the people with that mindset who like it are Stalinists or Nazbols.

# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:41

Mustang: Jun 18, 2006; “We don’t really know where this goes — and I’m not sure we really care.”

The majority of new buildings put up tend to be hideous, and you largely can't even tell what part of the country/world they're even from because they all look the same and could be literally anywhere.

Seems like a depressing time to be an architect.

# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:43

Shooting Blanks: Jun 6, 2007; Real bullets mess up how cool this thing looks.

-Blade

Mustang posted:

The majority of new buildings put up tend to be hideous, and you largely can't even tell what part of the country/world they're even from because they all look the same and could be literally anywhere.

Seems like a depressing time to be an architect.

Eh, an architect today is going to be designing with goals other than pure aesthetics in mind anyway. Energy efficiency is one focus of modern design, as is the use of green building materials, improved accessibility, etc.

Think of the Aeron chair - when Herman Miller introduced it back in the 1990s, people thought it was a highly functional chair, but very ugly. I think a few people were even quoted as saying something along the lines of "It's very functional, but let me know when you have a finished product." Today the Aeron is considered a hallmark of industrial design, and one of them sits in the MOMA in NYC. We're seeing the same thing with architecture - buildings are being designed for improved performance first, and aesthetic appeal second.

# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:50

RealityWarCriminal: Aug 10, 2016

Mellow Seas posted:

Yes, if you just flat-out ignore any realities whatsoever about the basic functions and structure of our federalist system of government, the Dems are bad on those issues.

Are you serious right now, man? Ask a woman needing an abortion or a trans person who they would rather have running their state or the federal government.

If you have a problem figuring out whether you're for me or Trump, then you ain't trans

# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:58

bird food bathtub: Aug 9, 2003; College Slice

Shooting Blanks posted:

The economy is always a big one, this is kind of a gimme.

Specifically for young voters, I have a feeling it's going to be a combination of Student Loan Forgiveness Round 2: How We Plan To Get It Done This Time, and Roe v. Wade/SCOTUS reform. If someone can come with with a good pitch for addressing housing and CoL geared towards rent relief, that could also be a big one. I just have no idea what the actual pitch would look like.

What SCOTUS reform are they running on? I've heard nothing official. "Vote blue no matter who and maybe in 30-40 years there will be an outside chance at a possibility of maybe having the opportunity to investigate fixing it by maybe getting a chance to appoint replacements when the current proto-fascists in there now get tired of taking bribes and decide to retire. If Republicans don't ratfuck us again to maintain their hold on power." is the complete extent of every serious proposal on court reform I've heard mentioned outside of think pieces and a few house representatives that get ignored. Maybe I'm missing the messaging on this one and that'd be cool if true but I'm going to take some convincing to believe they've learned a lesson on this poo poo. Even student debt is so far setting the same expectations. Sure it looks like they're gonna try Student Loan 2: Debt Boogaloo, and then the court is going to poo poo on it again by finding someone in Botswana who thinks their uncle's dog might get a hangnail if it passes so they'll have standing to let the court declare it null and void. Again.

At some point they have to sack up and *do something*. poo poo, right now and for 2024 they could possibly even get away with just talking about doing something as that alone would be a momentous sea change from the current approach. People living daily with everything from frustration to terror that they'll be un-personed by 6 robed law wizards are getting mighty god drat sick and tired of having them throw up their hands and point out what SCOTUS did again. Yeah, we know, they loving suck and are going to keep doing this poo poo for decades. So now what?

# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:07

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

bird food bathtub posted:

What SCOTUS reform are they running on? I've heard nothing official.

They are voting on a law to implement a new enforceable Scotus code of ethics next week. It won't pass the House.

It subjects the SCOTUS judges to the same disclosure and gift limit rules that members of congress are subject to, allows the public to submit ethics complaints that a randomly selected panel of lower court judges would review, and impose recusal rules that would mandate recusing from cases when someone involved has provided gifts, income and other potential conflicts to a justice.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/senate-democrats-announce-vote-advance-supreme-court-ethics-bill-rcna93486

# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:12

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

RealityWarCriminal posted:

If you have a problem figuring out whether you're for me or Trump, then you ain't trans

I�m sorry do you have an actual response or are you just going to do Joe Biden Gaffe Reference jokes? Democrats are the party that do not oppose abortion and gender transition. Give or take the amount of people you can fit in a Toyota Camry, nobody in the party is opposed to either. There is no nuance to this. You are just straight up refusing to acknowledge a fact on par with �the sky is blue.� Like, I don�t even think you disagree with it, do you? Genuinely curious, but I don�t know for sure because all you posted was snark.

In terms of actual data 81% of the LGBT vote went to Biden and I assume it was higher among trans people, both because they are more persecuted by conservatives and because (non-closeted) trans people skew younger.

# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:15

theCalamity: Oct 23, 2010; Cry Havoc and let slip the Hogs of War

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

They are voting on a law to implement a new enforceable Scotus code of ethics next week. It won't pass the House.

It subjects the SCOTUS judges to the same disclosure and gift limit rules that members of congress are subject to, allows the public to submit ethics complaints that a randomly selected panel of lower court judges would review, and impose recusal rules that would mandate recusing from cases when someone involved has provided gifts, income and other potential conflicts to a justice.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/senate-democrats-announce-vote-advance-supreme-court-ethics-bill-rcna93486

Sounds like a good start. Is there anything else? Do they plan on adding judges?

# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:15

RealityWarCriminal: Aug 10, 2016

I think it's silly to presume any group owes their vote. It was silly when Biden said it and he got roasted for it. Since then we've learned nothing.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:17

Dull Fork: Mar 22, 2009

Willa Rogers posted:

NBC News ran a piece about younger voters this cycle. Highlights bolded instead of restated.

Biden confronts a 'pissed-off generation' of young voters who may be decisive in 2024

What are you guys sussing out from the Kids These Days in your universe? And if you were a political strategist, what would you suggest that Democrats do to woo the young'uns?

I hate these polls because they never do the simplest thing and ask a follow up question for the favorable/unfavorable. They never want to find out if these people who are unenthused for Biden, are unenthused because he isn't left enough, or because he is too far left. (If I am wrong I'd love to see more national-level polls) So now we get to trudge through another election season of hand-wringing articles about 'why don't the youth vote?!' and the evergreen conclusion of 'tack more towards the center to get moderates!' instead of getting actual answers.

# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:18

Leon Trotsky 2012: Aug 27, 2009; YOU CAN TRUST ME!*

_{*Israeli Government-affiliated poster}

theCalamity posted:

Sounds like a good start. Is there anything else? Do they plan on adding judges?

Nope, that's the only SCOTUS bill they are voting on right now.

I don't think there is a significant majority of support for adding judges. They were talking about 18-year term limits, but haven't put it into a bill yet.

# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:19

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

theCalamity posted:

Sounds like a good start. Is there anything else? Do they plan on adding judges?

Explain to me how they would add judges to the Supreme Court. Like walk me through the legislative procedure in 2023 that results in that outcome.

# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:19

theCalamity: Oct 23, 2010; Cry Havoc and let slip the Hogs of War

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Nope, that's the only SCOTUS bill they are voting on right now.

I don't think there is a significant majority of support for adding judges. They were talking about 18-year term limits, but haven't put it into a bill yet.

If the recusal bill is the only thing, that's pretty weak. There's an appetite for more than just that.

I don't think there is a significant majority of support either, but that's kind of the issue, right? The democrats aren't really down for something like that. Term limits would be good and I hope they do it, but I'll believe when I see it.

# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:24

DynamicSloth: Jul 30, 2006; "Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

zoux posted:

Explain to me how they would add judges to the Supreme Court. Like walk me through the legislative procedure in 2023 that results in that outcome.

That would be a heavy lift, certainly impossible in 2023, by contrast the Senate Dems Supreme Court ethics bill will also never pass in 2023, would never accomplish anything if it did and would be adjudicated as unconstitutional.

Adding seats is the only legal way to reform the court, full stop, anything else is window dressing.

DynamicSloth fucked around with this message at 18:28 on Jul 13, 2023

# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:24

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

bird food bathtub posted:

What SCOTUS reform are they running on? I've heard nothing official. "Vote blue no matter who and maybe in 30-40 years there will be an outside chance at a possibility of maybe having the opportunity to investigate fixing it

You realize that Roe was repealed explicitly because Republicans were able to focus on the goal of changing the court over the course of 50 years, right? Sometimes things in politics take a while. Giving up and giving in because something will take too long is self-defeating.

There are other ways besides SCOTUS to promote national access to abortion, as well. You can fight in the states, where the bans are unpopular. You can try to maintain access to abortion medication. States can create programs to help people travel for abortions. We don�t have to just sit around twiddling our thumbs waiting for justices to die.

I would be surprised if Roe is replaced by a similar court decision, because in �30 to 40 years,�* or whenever Dems have control again, the national abortion situation is going to be different in ways we can�t anticipate.

* it could easily be as little as 10; Thomas and Alito are old, if not by �rich guy� standards. I regret to inform people who find the word hilarious that this will require people �VOTE!� for Dems, however.

# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:27

PostNouveau: Sep 3, 2011; VY till I die; Grimey Drawer

zoux posted:

Yes but if they ran for the things that I like then they would excite the youth vote. No I am not young.

https://twitter.com/ArthurDelaneyHP/status/1679500826388189184

This is getting pathetic. I'm sure most of those 500 people are back in their home states because they are tourists? I know that they just want the words "cocaine" associated with "Biden" for Hunter Vibes Reasons but what's their theory of malfeasance here? Did Joe Biden, demented and hopped up on cocaine, get in line for a public tour of the White House and put his bag of cocaine in the x-ray tray?

FYI, because it's funny: Cocaine stays in a person's system only 3 days.

https://americanaddictioncenters.org/cocaine-treatment/how-long-in-system

# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:33

theCalamity: Oct 23, 2010; Cry Havoc and let slip the Hogs of War

Mellow Seas posted:

You realize that Roe was repealed explicitly because Republicans were able to focus on the goal of changing the court over the course of 50 years, right? Sometimes things in politics take a while. Giving up and giving in because something will take too long is self-defeating.

There are other ways besides SCOTUS to promote national access to abortion, as well. You can fight in the states, where the bans are unpopular. You can try to maintain access to abortion medication. States can create programs to help people travel for abortions. We don�t have to just sit around twiddling our thumbs waiting for justices to die.

I would be surprised if Roe is replaced by a similar court decision, because in �30 to 40 years,�* or whenever Dems have control again, the national abortion situation is going to be different in ways we can�t anticipate.

* it could easily be as little as 10; Thomas and Alito are old, if not by �rich guy� standards. I regret to inform people who find the word hilarious that this will require people �VOTE!� for Dems, however.

Didn't the Dems have the chance to actually make it legal across the country to get an abortion?

# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:35

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

PostNouveau posted:

FYI, because it's funny: Cocaine stays in a person's system only 3 days.

https://americanaddictioncenters.org/cocaine-treatment/how-long-in-system

What about a hair test

https://twitter.com/halbritz/status/1679539767732494353

One thing I'd be in favor of is jettisoning these traditions that give single senators the ability to gently caress everything up but it won't happen because every single senator wants to reserve the right to unilaterally gently caress everything up one day.

theCalamity posted:

Didn't the Dems have the chance to actually make it legal across the country to get an abortion?

What? Through what means?

# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:35

Inferior Third Season: Jan 15, 2005

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Nope, that's the only SCOTUS bill they are voting on right now.

I don't think there is a significant majority of support for adding judges. They were talking about 18-year term limits, but haven't put it into a bill yet.

Term limits run into a constitutionality problem. Yes, there are arguments and schemes for how we could push justices off the bench while simultaneously letting them "hold their office during good behavior". These would immediately be rejected by the courts. So unless we have a good way to deal with this obvious chain of events, this should probably be avoided.

# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:36

PostNouveau: Sep 3, 2011; VY till I die; Grimey Drawer

zoux posted:

What about a hair test

Oh, could be years for a hair test so I've now swung back to supporting Rep. Magic The Gathering in her quest to get hair from 500 White House staffers.

# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:37

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

RealityWarCriminal posted:

I think it's silly to presume any group owes their vote. It was silly when Biden said it and he got roasted for it. Since then we've learned nothing.

Yes, I agree, the �you ain�t black� thing was a lovely thing to say, although it does not appear to have hurt him electorally. He did apologize but of course it�s easy to apologize for things after everybody yells at you.

I didn�t say �you ain�t trans,� or anything like it. Those are words you put in my mouth. I never have and never will question anybody�s gender identity. Your response has (possibly less than) nothing to do with my observation that if you want an abortion or are trans, there is a very, very good chance that you would prefer a Democrat be in office. Which is amply statistically supported, and intuitively and observationally true.

# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:38

Kalli: Jun 2, 2001

zoux posted:

What? Through what means?

Probably pretty similar to the Freedom of Choice Act I'd imagine.

# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:39

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# ? May 23, 2024 19:42

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

theCalamity posted:

Didn't the Dems have the chance to actually make it legal across the country to get an abortion?

Sure. One of them didn�t want to, and another wasn�t willing to change the rules to do so. So the other 49 were not able to. That has absolutely zero bearing on absolutely any of my points unless you are subscribing to the dubious �rotating villains� theory.

The court would just obviously declare that law unconstitutional anyway, on shaky �state�s rights� grounds, wouldn�t they? Like, how would they possibly not?

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 18:43 on Jul 13, 2023

# ? Jul 13, 2023 18:40

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USCE 2023: Please let them shove a camera up your butt

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