Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
What is the most powerful flying bug?
This poll is closed.
🦋 15 3.71%
🦇 115 28.47%
🪰 12 2.97%
🐦 67 16.58%
dragonfly 94 23.27%
🦟 14 3.47%
🐝 87 21.53%
Total: 404 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
  • Post
  • Reply
Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe
drat, are we finally getting some primo homegrown succ?

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

fizzy posted:

It does puzzle me as to why my simple desire to share good news about Ukraine gave rise to so much hostility and vitriol in the other Ukraine threads.

a lot of people just can't stand the idea of Ukraine winning and having a future of peace and freedom

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

Deadly Ham Sandwich posted:

It's an interesting political strategy by Ukraine to repeatedly commit to joining NATO after the war despite this being the reason why Russia invaded.

Another pro-putin lie. Russia invaded Ukraine to commit genocide. That was their reason for invading.

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

Fortunately for Ukraine, drunk Russian orcs are just as incompetent at genocide as everything else.

Nix Panicus
Feb 25, 2007

Officer Sandvich posted:

I think this is a misunderstanding — I’m not suggesting NATO should fight in Ukraine. I am saying that it is failing its founding mission, which is succinctly stated in the first paragraph on its mission statement:

Putin is attempting a "re-birth" of the Soviet Union as an empire in his image, destroying peace in Europe in the process.

There’s a country securing peace in Europe with everything it has: Ukraine. So I guess Ukraine is the new NATO. Peace in Europe is dependent on one country and one country only. Let’s hope it doesn’t fail.

NATO could be more grateful. It could give Ukrainians a boost in morale with an invitation to join at the right time. But we’re leaving the door shut "for now". It’s a comfortable position, I guess.

Ukraine is actually a warmongering nation ruled by fascists OP. I hope it fails so peace can return.

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012

c l o u d k i t t e n
Grimey Drawer
Pretty sure peace in europe is maintained by the NATO nuclear umbrella and not Ukraine so really if that's why they were doing all this it's awkward and they should just surrender

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

fizzy posted:

In short, Russia has lost – they’ve lost strategically, operationally and tactically and they are paying an enormous price on the battlefield.

I know he knows better, but you hate to see these concepts being abused.

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012

c l o u d k i t t e n
Grimey Drawer

Frosted Flake posted:

I know he knows better, but you hate to see these concepts being abused.

it's just empty propaganda and it's weird they're using the president to put it out

it's not even inspiring, it's just "everything is fine actually"

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Officer Sandvich posted:

NATO could be more grateful. It could give Ukrainians a boost in morale with an invitation to join at the right time.

That's your rear end and mine man.

Think of the echoes in the empty messes of the QDG, SCOTS DG, RDG, QRH, RL, KRH, LD and RTR after the cavalry goes boldly forth for the sake of...?

By way of example, I was in garrison when RCD was ambushed in Afghanistan and lost iirc 2 Coyotes and a LAV. You could feel that for weeks afterwards. It feels bad, and it feels worse when it's for some bullshit.

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

Regarde Aduck posted:

it's not even inspiring, it's just "everything is fine actually"

That's literally the definition of his presidency.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Lostconfused posted:

That's literally the definition of his presidency.

It's interesting because the End of History has so many things that were designed to run no matter who was at the helm, or with the controls totally disconnected from popular or political control, even the possibility of altering course being ruled out, as long as there was continuing material prosperity. There was really no Plan B for if that hit a snag, and lo and behold basically no institutions have any legitimacy.

Its been discussed ITT a few times but what makes me feel like a lunatic is that in a society that insists there's no propaganda, the past few years have been the first time I've really felt it. The messaging is at odds with observable reality, with things you see in your daily life, at work, what the literature says, historical cases, but it's gotten so much more intense, it's so in lockstep, even how politicians speak feels so much forcefully insistent that everything is fine.

I mean I guess really what we're seeing is that the people who are liberals are those where they have enough material prosperity that they're still signed on for the project. So, I guess they don't really see how weird this all is, they're invested in not seeing.

e: Obviously I've been around PAOs, I've seen people deliver messaging, even met a speechwriter or two, and I know liberalism was always ideological, so was neoliberalism, I've read CIA asset and Epstein associate Chomsky's work. The gap between what they were claiming and what you could observe seemed smaller before 2020. I know they were lying their heads off about free market efficiency and everything back in the 70's, they obviously have always lied about causes, but they are trying to lie, insistently, forcefully, in lockstep, about effects that everyone can see.

It's such a bizarre strategy.

Frosted Flake has issued a correction as of 17:42 on Jul 14, 2023

Zodium
Jun 19, 2004

Frosted Flake posted:

It's interesting because the End of History has so many things that were designed to run no matter who was at the helm, or with the controls totally disconnected from popular or political control, even the possibility of altering course being ruled out, as long as there was continuing material prosperity. There was really no Plan B for if that hit a snag, and lo and behold basically no institutions have any legitimacy.

Its been discussed ITT a few times but what makes me feel like a lunatic is that in a society that insists there's no propaganda, the past few years have been the first time I've really felt it. The messaging is at odds with observable reality, with things you see in your daily life, at work, what the literature says, historical cases, but it's gotten so much more intense, it's so in lockstep, even how politicians speak feels so much forcefully insistent that everything is fine.

I mean I guess really what we're seeing is that the people who are liberals are those where they have enough material prosperity that they're still signed on for the project. So, I guess they don't really see how weird this all is, they're invested in not seeing.

cybernetic capitalism ftw

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

Ukraine's freedom and defense is important but not so important that 2% of GDP be spent on defense spending or that Ukraine be admitted into NATO

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

It's just going to take a while for people to come to terms that Erdogan is in charge of NATO at the moment.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

bedpan posted:

Ukraine's freedom and defense is important but not so important that 2% of GDP be spent on defense spending or that Ukraine be admitted into NATO

I was in a meeting where someone mentioned 4%.

My sinking feeling is that we're going to be giving MAID to every homeless and indigenous person in the country because gosh, the cupboard is bare for social services, there's no way to alleviate their suffering or prevent their deaths, but also the economy is the best it's ever been, and also we need to spend 4% to protect... our wonderful society that's so great and the best it's ever been.



NATO is getting ready to twist Canada's arm on defence spending: The two per cent target is the bare minimum, says Sec. Gen. Jens Stoltenberg

Analysis: Canada pressured by allies to up military spending

Again, I feel out of step with normal people for knowing that this exact same thing happened in the 60's and 70's. Canada was threatened with being kicked out of NATO as well as economic warfare from our allies, until the government folded. Which is also how we ended up sending major forces to Afghanistan. Somehow our upper middle class adore the same International Partner Organizations that blackmail our country.

Frosted Flake has issued a correction as of 17:49 on Jul 14, 2023

Nix Panicus
Feb 25, 2007

Officer Sandvich posted:

In the meantime, when there's a bit of free time, Ukraine: give thanks to the allies.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1679344988650622976?s=20

After getting told he should be more thankful for what hes gotten Zelensky made a video where he thanked the hell out of everyone

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

The most united NATO ever has managed to create three distinct blocs. Turkey, Poland, and France/Germany.

Maybe Turkey and Poland should be a bit more worried that USA is mostly interested in eating up Germany at the moment. But Erdogan is the one winning out of the three groups right now, and Poland wants so have some of what Turkey's having.

Zedhe Khoja
Nov 10, 2017

sürgünden selamlar
yıkıcılar ulusuna

gradenko_2000 posted:

The Peninsula Campaign refers to McClellan's operations from March to July 1862, when he landed at Fort Monroe on the eastern end of the Virginia Peninsula and moved to take Richmond directly and by the flank, which culminated in the Seven Days Battles.

recreating the most famous and studied campaign at West Point playing the part of the loser was certainly a choice

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

What's Greece doing?

They should probably be the most worried about all of this poo poo.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Lostconfused posted:

What's Greece doing?

They should probably be the most worried about all of this poo poo.

Well that's the problem. The perfidious Germans betrayed the Megali Idea.

Tankbuster
Oct 1, 2021
took a stroll over to the other thread about this war and people really are going "wow, these ruzzian zugzugs lose 50 vehicles to 15 ukranian ones, look at this OSINT data"

Raccooon
Dec 5, 2009

Are there any reports on what the current state of the war is? Is it in a holding pattern since Ukraine can't do a counter offensive?

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Nix Panicus posted:

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1679344988650622976?s=20

After getting told he should be more thankful for what hes gotten Zelensky made a video where he thanked the hell out of everyone

His eyes look dead.

Lostconfused posted:

What's Greece doing?

They should probably be the most worried about all of this poo poo.

Desperately re-arming with French weapons even though their country is barely functioning.

Raccooon posted:

Are there any reports on what the current state of the war is? Is it in a holding pattern since Ukraine can't do a counter offensive?

The Ukrainian offensive petered out and the Russians are pushing offensives in a couple areas.

Tankbuster
Oct 1, 2021
russians are making tiny tiny advances, so little that its boring.

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

Raccooon posted:

Are there any reports on what the current state of the war is? Is it in a holding pattern since Ukraine can't do a counter offensive?

Follow one of the war twitter accounts. Or Telegram for Russian/Ukrainian language updates.

War is still going.

I'm not a war understander so I don't know who has "the initiative" right now, but Russians are the ones that are taking what was supposed to be Ukrainian controlled territory, and not the other way around.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Tankbuster posted:

russians are making tiny tiny advances, so little that its boring.

Yeah, the big issue at the moment is what is going on in Belarus and if Wagner forces are simply there to "advise" Belarussian forces or are actually preparing for a joint offensive with some Russian support. It is intentionally vague, but yeah some small scale pushes on the part of the Russians elsewhere.

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012

c l o u d k i t t e n
Grimey Drawer

Tankbuster posted:

took a stroll over to the other thread about this war and people really are going "wow, these ruzzian zugzugs lose 50 vehicles to 15 ukranian ones, look at this OSINT data"

how do they square this with Ukraine failing to reach the first defense line? Do they know where the defense lines are? Do they know that there are defense lines?

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

ukriane would probably be doing better if it had an Air Force and navy

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

Ukraine had an air force and a navy.

Raccooon
Dec 5, 2009

Ardennes posted:

Yeah, the big issue at the moment is what is going on in Belarus and if Wagner forces are simply there to "advise" Belarussian forces or are actually preparing for a joint offensive with some Russian support. It is intentionally vague, but yeah some small scale pushes on the part of the Russians elsewhere.

Is there an expectation that another joint Russian/Belarussian force may push into Ukraine?

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

it probably would be pretty dumb for Belarus to official join the war

that may get nato in officially too

Lostconfused
Oct 1, 2008

Belarus is only a staging ground.

Lukashenko only made statements about the army getting involved if Poland or someone tries to occupy western Ukraine.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Some pretty grim videos of Ukrainian trenches being cleared, plus the usual footage of Ukrainians getting caught out in the open by shellfire. It doesn't mean anything, really, but gives you an idea of what the day to day of attritional warfare can be like. It sucks and is boring and people don't like it but I've been beating this drum for 18 months now, so, at the moment the war is not taking place on maps but on shell expenditure reports. As Russia is still outshooting Ukraine, that's - broadly speaking - the way things are going.

NYT had the inspiring story of how Ukrainian soldiers now have 5 days training before being sent into the line,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxCoOhHgaVU

I don't see Russia needing to take any risks to get some movement going, what they're doing is working for them, whereas the past month or so I think reflected enormous pressure on Ukraine to accomplish something before this past weekend. I don't see why they would take any big chances now, they have to rest and replenish the units who have been through the grinder. If those assumptions are true, neither side has a reason to be making moves right now. Russia, because they don't need to, and Ukraine because they no longer have to.

The long term balance of firepower and materiel favours Russia, which means the casualties and equipment they trade are in their favour and will remain in their favour. They're mobilizing industry, Ukraine doesn't have much to speak of. Ukraine always relied on NATO aid to stay in the fight, their industry doesn't have a hope in hell of matching Russian production or even keeping them in the war.

Strategically, idk, the SMO thing is hard to predict. Russian forces are behind significant, now proven to be effective, fortifications while building strength. Ideally, they'll continue to do so until they can break through whatever facing fortifications Ukraine erects. Ukraine needed to attack to gain strength, via NATO aid, as I said above. I don't see any pressing time considerations for Russia. For Ukraine, every day this war drags on gets worse. Both sides will have their offensive options limited by fall rains.

No idea what's going on with the nuclear power plant, river crossing, or whatever else might have been considered before the summit.

I have a theory that whenever the news cycle doesn't have a positive Ukrainian story, especially if the Western press starts talking about their losses, anonymous defence officials are expressing doubts, and the Ukrainians don't have the military ability to execute some sort of win, they carry out some sort of spectacular attack or stunt. I would imagine that would be their move while their fought out forces take a breather.

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

trump winning is looking less and less likely

him being president would have been a significant game change for the status quo.

Marenghi
Oct 16, 2008

Don't trust the liberals,
they will betray you
Wonder what nazi symbol is on the patches they hand out to the trainees.

Deadly Ham Sandwich
Aug 19, 2009
Smellrose

Frosted Flake posted:

Its been discussed ITT a few times but what makes me feel like a lunatic is that in a society that insists there's no propaganda, the past few years have been the first time I've really felt it. The messaging is at odds with observable reality, with things you see in your daily life, at work, what the literature says, historical cases, but it's gotten so much more intense, it's so in lockstep, even how politicians speak feels so much forcefully insistent that everything is fine.

Most Americans don't trust television or newspaper news. But there is a caveat where they believe there is propaganda in the media, but the specific media they themselves (blog, facebook) consume is the real truth!

Officer Sandvich
Feb 14, 2010
It's worth it to take a breath and look at the last year. Putin went into Ukraine confident that he could take over the country and make it into a vassal similar to Belarus. And to continue to split up the Western powers through media manipulation on the same route he had been working on for a decade or more, with le Pen in France, Brexit, the corrupt Germans (not all Germans are corrupt, but some were at the time), and of course, the whole Trump thing.

And now what he has achieved with the invasion of Ukraine has been the opposite: an extension of NATO all the way up to the polar circle, including new commitment to the alliance from the rather flaky Turkish government. Internal weakness in Russia at an unprecedented level, and they are running out of arms. My personal opinion about the Russian army is that they are far worse off than Western "experts" imagine. This is both a systemic issue in the West and in Russia: Russians at all levels naturally need to project strength and resilience, but in the West, we have a similar bias, because people at all levels want to present Russia as a dire threat, so we can train more soldiers and buy more weapons. I'm not saying Russia is not a threat, and I do support NATO, but I think we have more fear of their army than is rationally meaningful.

And BTW Brexit has strengthened, not weakened the EU. And remember the troll farms were Wagner operations. Not that the Russian government can't take over, but plausible deniability is gone with that. And we still don't know if the coup is still ongoing. On the other hand, the very real threat of a totalitarian coup in the USA is being slowly, but safely uncovered, and right now, I believe the perpetrators will be taken to justice.

Obviously, some things could be better. Yes, it will be a great day when Ukraine enters Nato, and also the EU. It would be even better if Russia could finally develop into a peaceful democracy. But one step at the time.

AnimeIsTrash
Jun 30, 2018

A white supremacist state invading another white supremacist state directly led to an expansion of NATO. The fuckup is squarely on Russia's hands and if the Russian citizens are smart they'll blame their leadership for loving up, just like we loving should have with Bush(es). It's still loving unconscionable that W got off scot-free for 2003.

Long-term Russia is being cut off and any short-term economic victories have proven to be ephemeral.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Now, the interesting thing about the attritional warfare we've seen here is for a bunch of reasons, ranging from a Political military to the need to impress NATO and the western public through results, there hasn't really been a live and let live system, even in the lulls. Both sides are always raiding trenches, dropping grenades with drones, and even if these are only taking place locally, on some sectors of the front - they're putting the stories out, all the time, in all sorts of media, which I'm going to hypothesize sends the message widely that it's not safe to ease off.

Trench Warfare 1914–1918: The Live and Let Live System

A classic of military history about the smaller, personal battles of the First World War
The story of the great battles of the First World War has been told by historians, journalists and others. The shock and slaughter of the Somme, Verdun and Passchendaele are a major theme of most books. Large scale battles, however, comprised the smaller part of soldiers' total time in combat. For 90% of that time soldiers fought small scale battles . These small conflicts were violent, continual and involved complex weaponry and specialised tactics. Yet, during small battles, soldiers could and often did, make choices not possible during large ones. From these choices, there evolved between enemies a curious culture of live and let live which constrained the war culture of kill or be killed in fundamental ways.

Life in the trenches of WWI was not unremitting slaughter and throughout the war some units managed to come to a "live and let live" arrangement with their enemy. Tony Ashworth examines in detail how non-elite regiments made life safer and more tolerable for themselves while in the front line. After Douglas Haig took command of the BEF at the end of 1915, life became much more difficult for those less aggressive soldiers, however many still found ways of avoiding unnecessary conflict.
Tony Ashworth's book is more a sociological study than a history book, and though not an easy read is very interesting and sheds light on the term "a quiet front".

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Officer Sandvich posted:

My personal opinion about the Russian army is that they are far worse off than Western "experts" imagine.

Again, gently reminding you that you're betting your life on that. Idk, is "far worse off" enough to defeat the ~850mm of armour between you and the open sky? I would think it might be, and thinking so, would want to avoid putting myself in a situation where that's put to the test.

Ergo, no Ukraine should not join NATO. I have no desire to die for Ukraine. Not my King, not my Country.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYJqMUJFY1g

Officer Sandvich posted:

so we can train more soldiers and buy more weapons.

Citation needed. They're exclusively interested in the second bit.

Frosted Flake has issued a correction as of 18:52 on Jul 14, 2023

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply