net work error posted:

https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1681290472806047745?t=IngcqeMBjZXQUUCzrHrNsw&s=19

Buffer posted:

It's always about the children. Satanic panic. D&D. Rock music. Woke professors. Lockdowns.

They gonna steal 'em from you

DickParasite posted:

It really drove the point home when the twitter leftists all defended their right to play that dumb Harry Potter videogame because JKR is already rich so nothing matters. Like all they had to do was not play a video game. A game which nobody remembered like 2 months after it came out anyway. They couldn't even give that up.

Spaced God posted:

Sounds like the ups should give its workers everything they're demanding then

sleep with the vicious posted:

The "beats expectations" is always funny to me because it means the wall street analysts were wrong again, yet somehow we are all here again doing the same poo poo next quarter. Just revise expectations upwards dog. Its all theatre, even for the rich

webcams for christ posted:

turns out the inflation was Transitory after all

sleep with the vicious posted:

The "beats expectations" is always funny to me because it means the wall street analysts were wrong again, yet somehow we are all here again doing the same poo poo next quarter. Just revise expectations upwards dog. Its all theatre, even for the rich

Mr. Lobe posted:

I'm sorry, are you trying to suggest a problem exists? I think, if you will look critically, you will see we live in the best of all possible worlds

America is already great, you see

webcams for christ posted:

no one wants to code anymore

https://twitter.com/torbar/status/1681073517989617664

https://www.tiktok.com/@imax/video/7255327705313430830

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

It's neat that Christopher Rufo straight up said "this is a great issue to unite conservatives on by stirring up bullshit hate, so I'm going to do that and here's my roadmap for doing so," and no one ever called him on it or pointed out that this panic is completely artificial.

quote:

https://www.reuters.com
Long-feared corporate debt woes start to hit home
Chiara Elisei, Dhara Ranasinghe
5 - 7 minutes

LONDON, July 18 (Reuters) - The spectre of rising corporate debt defaults exacerbating a global economic slowdown has for months been largely brushed aside by resilient credit markets.

Now, long-feared corporate debt woes are starting to hit home, while more companies are being downgraded to a junk credit rating - facing higher borrowing costs as a result.

Retailer Casino, with 6.4 billion euros ($7.19 billion) of net debt, is in court-backed talks with creditors; Britain's Thames Water is in the headlines with its 14 billion pound ($18.32 billion) debt pile.

Swedish landlord SBB (SBBb.ST), downgraded to junk in May, is at the epicentre of a property crash that threatens to engulf Sweden's economy.

Yet the cost of insuring exposure to a basket of European junk-rated corporates last week briefly hit its lowest in just over a year, suggesting investors remain unperturbed by rising default risks.

"You have a lot of complacency in the market, if you think that statistics show that we have had already as many defaults globally in the first five months of 2023 as in the whole 2022," said Julius Baer's head of fixed income research Markus Allenspach.

"But there are still inflows into high yields (bonds)," he said.

S&P Global expects default rates for U.S. and European sub-investment grade companies to rise to 4.25% and 3.6% respectively by March 2024, from 2.5% and 2.8% this March.

Reuters Graphics
Reuters Graphics

Hopes the world economy will avoid a sharp downturn and that aggressive rate hikes will soon end explain the upbeat sentiment.

But analysts note the impact of rate rises has yet to be fully felt.

For some, this means corporate bond yields should command a higher premium. The current spread on the ICE BofA global high yield bond index is at 435 basis points (bps), down from 622 bps a year ago. (.MERHW00)

Reuters Graphics
Reuters Graphics

"Corporate credit spreads are still extremely tight and are not reflecting the risks that are out there," said Guy Miller, chief market strategist at Zurich Insurance Group.

Miller said 122 U.S. public and private companies with liabilities over $50 million have already filed for bankruptcy protection so far this year, implying a run rate that will cause bankruptcies to exceed 200 by year-end - comparable to that seen during the global financial crisis and COVID-19.

For FACTBOX: Corporate debt woes are on the rise, click here.

While some firms took advantage of the low rates era to extend the maturity of their debt, buying themselves some time, refinancing will be costly for those with looming debt maturities.

"On aggregate, things don't look dreadful. But it's not the aggregate you worry about, it's the marginal players coming through that now are having to pay massively more to borrow," Miller said.

ABN AMRO said the average maturity of European high yield corporate bonds reached a record low of almost four years in May, versus an average of just over six years between 2005-2007, when the European Central Bank also jacked up rates.

That means firms have less time than previously to refinance debt, so the pain of higher rates will be felt sooner.
RESTRUCTURING

Failing to pay higher interest costs or to refinance maturing debt are among the main reasons companies default.

To avoid having to repay their debt immediately following a default, or finding themselves insolvent, firms are starting talks with creditors on how to restructure their debt and turn their business around.

Take cash-strapped Casino. Plagued by hefty debt following a string of acquisitions and dwindling earnings, the company is seeking at least 900 million euros of new capital to stay afloat, while slashing its debt pile.

Still, debt restructuring experts said the legal systems in place have evolved since the financial crisis, so a disorderly wind-up of businesses can mostly be avoided.

In Spain, the effectiveness of a new restructuring law is being tested as a restructuring plan for industrial group Celsa goes through the courts.

"The outcome of restructuring processes is now more predictable than 10 years ago, as the legal frameworks across European countries have become more aligned," said Aymen Mahmoud, co-head of the London Finance, Restructuring and Special Situations Group at law firm McDermott Will & Emery.

Nonetheless, not all firms may be able to survive the challenges of vast debt, higher interest and business costs and declining profits.

"We are still some 12 months away from seeing the full impact, particularly in Europe, where the downturn may be less severe, but recovery will also be slower," said Elena Lieskovska, partner at Bain Capital Special Situations.

($1 = 0.8899 euros)

($1 = 0.7643 pounds)

Reporting by Chiara Elisei and Dhara Ranasinghe, editing by Christina Fincher

Lenin posted:

We are not utopians. We know that an unskilled labourer or a cook cannot immediately get on with the job of state administration. In this we agree with the Cadets, with Breshkovskaya, and with Tsereteli. We differ, however, from these citizens in that we demand an immediate break with the prejudiced view that only the rich, or officials chosen from rich families, are capable of administering the state, of performing the ordinary, everyday work of administration. We demand that training in the work of state administration be conducted by class-conscious workers and soldiers and that this training be begun at once

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

It's neat that Christopher Rufo straight up said "this is a great issue to unite conservatives on by stirring up bullshit hate, so I'm going to do that and here's my roadmap for doing so," and no one ever called him on it or pointed out that this panic is completely artificial.

triple sulk posted:

that kicks rear end

Monkey Fracas posted:

You can also trace the CRT panic to some piece of poo poo conservative consulting group who were like bragging aloud what a great idea it was on Twitter or something


It's more frustrating that ideas like this find so much purchase but there's also this secondary frustration where you can just kinda sit on lawnchair and drink beer for 6 months while you watch someone slowly put the bullshit antenna array together in full view of everyone driving by on I-90 and everyone still treats it like it isn't bullshit

webcams for christ posted:

no one wants to code anymore

https://twitter.com/torbar/status/1681073517989617664

https://www.tiktok.com/@imax/video/7255327705313430830

gradenko_2000 posted:

I used to believe in the notion that conspiracies are impossible because it would need to involve so many people that someone would always end up spilling the beans or blowing the whistle

As it turns out, that's complete bullshit: it doesn't matter if you know exactly what's going on, if nobody believes you

Willa Rogers posted:

The index upon which the SSA determines CoL increases looks like it's going to be around 3 percent for next year's adjustment although inflation in stuff like drug prices that affects seniors the most is above 10 percent.

trevorreznik posted:

I keep trying to think of something comparable and really can't. It's something you have to specifically go to get, hard to order, but the place you get it from has a million other varieties at comparable costs.

Boycotting a place in a fixed location is way harder - you could boycott chikfila, but now you have to drive twice as far to Popeyes. Same with target vs its competitors.

The closest I can think of is chips or candy bars, but those don't even have the same level of variety and I feel like people care even more about their favorites for those. So it's hard to imagine someone switching from Reese's to Skittles. And those still don't have the social component of parties/bars where your consumption is public.

net work error posted:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1681238667875209217?t=milRFoaRMFwnOzb-EHM02A&s=19

One of these days!!

RandomBlue posted:

Pretty cool that the cost of pretty much everything required for living is still through the roof and continuing to increase but that's OK because this calculation over here says inflation is down.

Shear Modulus posted:

yeah conspiracies are done out in the open but the official story just denies reality

webcams for christ posted:

no one wants to code anymore

https://twitter.com/torbar/status/1681073517989617664

https://www.tiktok.com/@imax/video/7255327705313430830

theCalamity posted:

https://twitter.com/SentaMMoses/status/1681127057701617664?s=20

StratGoatCom posted:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/17/ai-will-be-the-biggest-bubble-of-all-time-stability-ai-ceo.html

They just up and said it, run for the hills.

webcams for christ posted:

no one wants to code anymore

https://twitter.com/torbar/status/1681073517989617664

https://www.tiktok.com/@imax/video/7255327705313430830

Beached Whale posted:

TikTok has introduced me to a group of communal airbnb landlords

RandomBlue posted:

Pretty cool that the cost of pretty much everything required for living is still through the roof and continuing to increase but that's OK because this calculation over here says inflation is down.

quote:

Ready for some bad news, retirees? Brace for your smallest Social Security COLA raise in recent memory.

Why? After two years of surging prices, inflation is falling this year. And that will dramatically cut into Social Security recipients' COLA (cost of living adjustment) in 2024, says the Senior Citizens League (SCL), which forecasts the next year's estimated increase.

Beneficiaries will see their annual "raise" lowered to 2.7% from 8.7% in 2023. That would be the smallest COLA hike since before the Covid pandemic. Of course, this is just an estimate. The Social Security Administration has said it will announce in October the next COLA for the 70 million Americans receiving benefits.

But expect economic fallout from such a small COLA.

Prices Remain High

The inflation rate has slowed. But older Americans are still strained from two years of historically high consumer prices. Household expenses remain high in essential spending categories, the SCL says. A June survey shows 62% of participants cite food costs as their fastest-growing cost. Housing costs are the biggest concern of 22% of survey respondents.

And yet another obstacle may slow the recovery for Social Security recipients. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, fell to 3.6% in May. The inflation rate is likely to continue falling as the year goes on. That's good news for consumers overall. But it could hamper older Americans trying to recover from the financial impacts of Covid-19 and higher consumer prices.

***

The Loss Of Buying Power, And Eggs

Between January 2000 and February 2023, Social Security COLAs increased benefits by 78%, averaging 3.4% annually. But in a study on the loss of buying power for Social Security benefits, SCL policy analyst Mary Johnson says that the cost of goods and services purchased by typical retirees rose by 141.4% over the same period, averaging about 6.2% each year. "For every $100 a retired household spent on goods and services in 2000, that household can only buy about $64 worth today."

This year, buying power was hit hardest by price increases in food, electricity and rental housing. There also was a 16% increase in costs for dental care, and repair and maintenance of motor vehicles, Johnson said. "Topping our list of fastest-growing items? Eggs. In fact, no other spending item beat eggs or grew faster" during the survey reference period. The survey compared price changes from March 2022 to February 2023.

webcams for christ posted:

turns out the inflation was Transitory after all

Willa Rogers posted:

found the story:

Willa Rogers posted:

found the story:

RandomBlue posted:

https://twitter.com/TheeBrianJ/status/1681146400590151680

RandomBlue posted:

webcams for christ posted:

no one wants to code anymore

https://twitter.com/torbar/status/1681073517989617664

https://www.tiktok.com/@imax/video/7255327705313430830

Mokelumne Trekka posted:

I feel like I'm having a stroke, I understand 30% of these words