Ukraine War: "20 months of war for a used car."

The Something Awful Forums > Main > General Bullshit > Ukraine War: "20 months of war for a used car."

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Rust Martialis: May 8, 2007; At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

HonorableTB posted:

Honestly, I don't think so. There's a few key differences between a hypothetical where a NATO plane gets shot down by Russian AA and, say, a Soviet gunner blowing an American B-2 out of the sky over Vietnam.

Time travelling stealth bombers - the Final Countdown II: Spirit

# ? Jul 20, 2023 08:37

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# ? May 30, 2024 20:31

mobby_6kl: Aug 9, 2009; by Fluffdaddy

Shaman Tank Spec posted:

Saint Javelin launched their CRIMEA BEACH PARTY line. All the stuff is made in Ukraine and the benefits go to supporting Ukrainians in various ways* so it's all quite expensive by design. But still clearly selling because most of the stuff is sold out on less than a week.

Not gonna lie, if they still had my size of those hawaian shirts, I would be tempted.

* all of their campaigns benefit different charities and support drives. For instance last fall they sold hoodies and stuff to buy winter gear and medical supplies, and I'm not sure what charity/function the Crimea Beach Party line is supporting.

the first one looks like a Casa Blanca shirt or something, but yeah it's pretty expensive for a polyester shirt

# ? Jul 20, 2023 08:51

Ronwayne: Nov 20, 2007; That warm and fuzzy feeling.

Lammasu posted:

So, was Putin's plan to stay in the grain deal till they did something to piss him off? Does he actually expect to win this war? He's out gunned and more importantly out moneyed. He has no hope in hell.

The purpose of blowing up the grain is to cause a famine in Africa to drive refugees to Europe so right wing governments will get elected, who will kill aid for ukraine and generally make the continent far more hospitable for russian corruption.

Re:shirts, as a man entering his hawaiian shirt era of life, if I had the money I'd be tempted.

Ronwayne fucked around with this message at 09:23 on Jul 20, 2023

# ? Jul 20, 2023 09:13

Zwabu: Aug 7, 2006

Sadly I do think Putin has a path to victory which is to stay in power until 2024 and a Trump victory in the U.S. Presidential election, followed by a complete cessation of U.S. support to Ukraine.

It still wouldn't be easy, but at least possible.

# ? Jul 20, 2023 09:40

mobby_6kl: Aug 9, 2009; by Fluffdaddy

Zwabu posted:

Sadly I do think Putin has a path to victory which is to stay in power until 2024 and a Trump victory in the U.S. Presidential election, followed by a complete cessation of U.S. support to Ukraine.

It still wouldn't be easy, but at least possible.

Not only not easy, but also extremely unlikely. I know most chuds don't care if their president is a criminal but you need him to lose only a few percent to make re-election impossible.

# ? Jul 20, 2023 09:55

Zwabu: Aug 7, 2006

mobby_6kl posted:

Not only not easy, but also extremely unlikely. I know most chuds don't care if their president is a criminal but you need him to lose only a few percent to make re-election impossible.

I don't think Trump winning the Presidency again is the likely outcome but it's far more possible than it should be, and I do think it represents the only way for Putin to win the war in Ukraine.

# ? Jul 20, 2023 09:58

3D Megadoodoo: Nov 25, 2010

Donald Trump isn't the Russia-Ukraine war but get this: about 100% of people (including Donald Trump) thought he was unelectable the first time round, and he got elected.

# ? Jul 20, 2023 10:03

Ronwayne: Nov 20, 2007; That warm and fuzzy feeling.

To be fair, I feel the existence of Hillary Clinton's political career was a significant contribution to that, and now that Trumpian chaos energy banished her to the shadow zone and probably strangled Chelsea and Meghan McCain's political aspirations in the cradle, there's less of that accelerant. I mean yes, there's Joe and Kamela but chuds have to go the extra mile until its work to actually care about either of them. See also fox news trying to scream "HUNTER'S LAPTOP!" into a meme.

tl;dr, I feel the chud's won't win the presidential election*, but are absolutely going to try to use escalating violence and political control of the political powerhouses they do have (Texas, arguably Florida), to destabilize as much as they can.

*although, as you point out, I felt that way in November of 2015, lol.

To bring it back on topic, Putin probably understands if he plays the very long game (as in, past 2024 and into 2028**), enough european and american governments will flip and enough chuds will be back in office that they will pull aid and Putin will win the forever war.

And I guess its a testament to both the state of medical technology available to the elite, and our calcified political classes that 70 and even 80 year old rulers can reasonably plan to be alive and in power in another 5+ years.

Ronwayne fucked around with this message at 10:30 on Jul 20, 2023

# ? Jul 20, 2023 10:21

Pajser: Jan 28, 2006

Ronwayne posted:

To be fair, I feel the existence of Hillary Clinton's political career was a significant contribution to that, and now that Trumpian chaos energy banished her to the shadow zone and probably strangled Chelsea and Meghan McCain's political aspirations in the cradle, there's less of that accelerant. I mean yes, there's Joe and Kamela but chuds have to go the extra mile until its work to actually care about either of them. See also fox news trying to scream "HUNTER'S LAPTOP!" into a meme.

tl;dr, I feel the chud's won't win the presidential election*, but are absolutely going to try to use escalating violence and political control of the political powerhouses they do have (Texas, arguably Florida), to destabilize as much as they can.

*although, as you point out, I felt that way in November of 2015, lol.

To bring it back on topic, Putin probably understands if he plays the very long game (as in, past 2024 and into 2028**), enough european and american governments will flip and enough chuds will be back in office that they will pull aid and Putin will win the forever war.

And I guess its a testament to both the state of medical technology available to the elite, and our calcified political classes that 70 and even 80 year old rulers can reasonably plan to be alive and in power in another 5+ years.

This has been the plan since at least april last year. While not impossible, it has too many moving parts, too many things staying unchanged for a very long time.

He probably expected wagner and pringles to be good boys forever and we've all seen how that turned out.

# ? Jul 20, 2023 10:43

Xenocides: Jan 14, 2008; This world looks very scary....

Zwabu posted:

Sadly I do think Putin has a path to victory which is to stay in power until 2024 and a Trump victory in the U.S. Presidential election, followed by a complete cessation of U.S. support to Ukraine.

It still wouldn't be easy, but at least possible.

If Trump wins European support would continue. It still might be enough.

# ? Jul 20, 2023 11:22

Roblo: Dec 10, 2007; I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Xenocides posted:

If Trump wins European support would continue. It still might be enough.

Mayyyybe. But that would in turn have a knock on effect on European politics. I don't think that would end well

# ? Jul 20, 2023 11:28

Carth Dookie: Jan 28, 2013

If USA has a second terminal brainfart and elects Trump again (while he's in prison serving his espionage sentence in this scenario because why not go full insane alternate timeline theory), by the time that happens Europe will hopefully have seen it coming realized that relying exclusively on the US is a bad idea and upped their own contributions to counter the American loss. If they're smart, greedy and evil they might even bolster their own MIC enterprises in the process. I don't doubt all the euro military producers look at lockheed martin and Raytheon with unbridled envy and would love the opportunity to make mad cash supplying Ukraine.

If not, and western europe tries to plug its fingers in its ears about whats happening in the east as soon as an R hits the white house, I'm pretty sure Poland isn't going to just shut up about it. I've no doubt they'd agitate along with the rest of the eastern europe NATO and EU members to keep things going.

It would be slower and bloodier, but I'd still expect Ukraine to win out in the end. Probably without Crimea though.

# ? Jul 20, 2023 11:42

Strategic Tea: Sep 1, 2012

Ronwayne posted:

The purpose of blowing up the grain is to cause a famine in Africa to drive refugees to Europe so right wing governments will get elected, who will kill aid for ukraine and generally make the continent far more hospitable for russian corruption.

Re:shirts, as a man entering his hawaiian shirt era of life, if I had the money I'd be tempted.

Ronwayne posted:

The purpose of blowing up the grain is to cause a famine in Africa to drive refugees to Europe so right wing governments will get elected, who will kill aid for ukraine and generally make the continent far more hospitable for russian corruption.

True in the longer-term, but the more immediate aim is to put pressure on African (and other developing nation) governments, into demanding an immediate cease fire so that the grain starts flowing again.

Those governments aren't going to care that the grain crisis was deliberately manufactured and exacerbated by Russia for this purpose, and that it wouldn't ensure 'peace', but a temporary freezing on Russian terms until they feel ready to try again. All they ultimately care about is grain prices coming down to relieve domestic pressures.

Russia can't exert enough economic leverage over the West to force a settlement (they tried and failed miserably with gas), so have reverted to an indirect strategy of pressuring weaker, non-Western governments, in the hope they will make calls for peace at any cost, or call for a new Grain Deal on Russian terms (ie: lifting of sanctions). Russian elites don't care that as a result many tens of millions of people across Africa will struggle, suffer, that it will cause political upheaval and maybe even starvation in those countries and turn refugees.

gently caress, that's their aim. The more suffering they can cause, the more pressure those governments will feel, and the more vocal they become.

Tigey fucked around with this message at 12:16 on Jul 20, 2023

# ? Jul 20, 2023 12:13

EasilyConfused: Nov 21, 2009; one strong toad

Coolguye posted:

i mean it's definitely beneficial to the long term strategic goal of having no nukes fly, for sure.

feels like folks need to re-read what honorable said w.r.t. russia's nuclear stockpile. like yes, russia's a kleptocracy and corruption is everywhere, doing everything, all the time. also, nuclear armaments take a staggering amount of infrastructure and maintenance to remain combat-ready, and if any piece of that infrastructure is compromised, there's a huge chance that the weapon will not function. further, if a nuclear weapon does not function, there is no such thing as slapping in a spare part and calling it good; everything is so sensitive that any replacements like that have to be done with utmost care and everything needs to be tested thoroughly.

but if even a tiny handful of those thousands of weapons function, hundreds of thousands will die. the casualties in this war have been absolutely appalling but those counts will double pretty fast if nukes start getting fired.

Hundreds of millions seems like a more realistic minimum, particularly given the inevitable counterstrikes.

# ? Jul 20, 2023 12:39

Strategic Tea: Sep 1, 2012

No way are they going nuclear over their lovely troops being killed in a foreign country in a non-war-no-siree police action.

Alternatively, if Putin will go full Israel and commence the apocalypse if he's personally under threat then we'd better give him some NATO support because once he loses he'll be on the fast track to senior window inspector

# ? Jul 20, 2023 13:08

Alan Smithee: Jan 4, 2005; A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

Strategic Tea posted:

Alternatively, if Putin will go full Israel

that's impossible

Putin has given military aid to Ukraine

# ? Jul 20, 2023 13:09

RBA-Wintrow: Nov 4, 2009; Clapping Larry

Tigey posted:

True in the longer-term, but the more immediate aim is to put pressure on African (and other developing nation) governments, into demanding an immediate cease fire so that the grain starts flowing again.

Those governments aren't going to care that the grain crisis was deliberately manufactured and exacerbated by Russia for this purpose, and that it wouldn't ensure 'peace', but a temporary freezing on Russian terms until they feel ready to try again. All they ultimately care about is grain prices coming down to relieve domestic pressures.

Russia can't exert enough economic leverage over the West to force a settlement (they tried and failed miserably with gas), so have reverted to an indirect strategy of pressuring weaker, non-Western governments, in the hope they will make calls for peace at any cost, or call for a new Grain Deal on Russian terms (ie: lifting of sanctions). Russian elites don't care that as a result many tens of millions of people across Africa will struggle, suffer, that it will cause political upheaval and maybe even starvation in those countries and turn refugees.

gently caress, that's their aim. The more suffering they can cause, the more pressure those governments will feel, and the more vocal they become.

Is it not just as likely those African countries will pressure, or try to pressure, Russia into stopping their invasion? They already buy security services from Wagner and are closer to China and Russia than to the EU and US.

# ? Jul 20, 2023 13:48

Burns: May 10, 2008

Do you really think Russians even give the slightest gently caress what happens to Africans?

Separately, how are those Russian forest firrs doing this year?

Burns fucked around with this message at 14:04 on Jul 20, 2023

# ? Jul 20, 2023 13:50

the holy poopacy: May 16, 2009; hey! check this out; Fun Shoe

Strategic Tea posted:

No way are they going nuclear over their lovely troops being killed in a foreign country in a non-war-no-siree police action.

Not right away, but what do we do when Russia starts lobbing missiles at apartment blocks on NATO soil? It's a scenario where neither side can afford to not escalate.

# ? Jul 20, 2023 14:06

Burns: May 10, 2008

the holy poopacy posted:

Not right away, but what do we do when Russia starts lobbing missiles at apartment blocks on NATO soil? It's a scenario where neither side can afford to not escalate.

Let them try.

# ? Jul 20, 2023 14:32

Rugz: Apr 15, 2014; PLS SEE AVATAR. P.S. IM A BELL END LOL

RBA-Wintrow posted:

Is it not just as likely those African countries will pressure, or try to pressure, Russia into stopping their invasion? They already buy security services from Wagner and are closer to China and Russia than to the EU and US.

Option 1: Tell the aggressor in a war, that you happen to have diplomatic ties to, to stop

Option 2: Rail against the historical damage the West caused Africa and demand that the war end by any and all means necessary

# ? Jul 20, 2023 14:34

mobby_6kl: Aug 9, 2009; by Fluffdaddy

Pretty weak effort by russia there

# ? Jul 20, 2023 14:51

Powered Descent: Jul 13, 2008; We haven't had that spirit here since 1969.

beer_war posted:

https://twitter.com/sherwiebp/status/1681617013054087170?s=20

Get hosed.

BRICrolled! :v:

# ? Jul 20, 2023 15:04

Dwesa: Jul 19, 2016; Maybe I'll go where I can see stars

UA MoD warns that they will consider all RU ships in Black Sea as potential targets

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1682017975572766722

# ? Jul 20, 2023 15:05

McGavin: Sep 18, 2012

Rugz posted:

Option 2: Rail against the historical damage the West caused Africa and demand that the war end by any and all means necessary

...provided those means allow Russia to retain all the territory it occupied, regardless of what happens to the former inhabitants. They were all Nazis anyways.

# ? Jul 20, 2023 15:17

anonumos: Jul 14, 2005; Fuck it.

HonorableTB posted:

TLDR: it aint proxy wars that drove the majority of the Warsaw Pact countries directly into NATO's arms as soon as the immediate and direct threat of Soviet military intervention disappeared in 1991

I was thinking more about how we don't dare set Ukraine up to destroy the invaders completely because that might trigger MAD. We are doing just enough to help but not enough to outright win. We're threading the needle, which is what our foreign policy has always been in proxy warfare. It may not be a proxy like Sudan or Libya, but the hands-off strategy is the same.

# ? Jul 20, 2023 15:27

Tai: Mar 8, 2006

Remember though, the west started this war by invading Russia

# ? Jul 20, 2023 15:38

RBA-Wintrow: Nov 4, 2009; Clapping Larry

McGavin posted:

...provided those means allow Russia to retain all the territory it occupied, regardless of what happens to the former inhabitants. They were all Nazis anyways.

And none of them will draw a parallel to white people colonizing the "savages"? Granted хохол is about hairstyle, not skin colour. But it should be very obvious that Ukraine wants to sell their grain and it is Russia that's stopping them. I have a little faith in our southern neighbors.

# ? Jul 20, 2023 15:45

mobby_6kl: Aug 9, 2009; by Fluffdaddy

RBA-Wintrow posted:

And none of them will draw a parallel to white people colonizing the "savages"? Granted хохол is about hairstyle, not skin colour. But it should be very obvious that Ukraine wants to sell their grain and it is Russia that's stopping them. I have a little faith in our southern neighbors.

Some certainly do, like Kenya for example: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66223280 but my impression is that it's not in the interest of various regimes that depend on Putin's support to "get" it.

# ? Jul 20, 2023 15:57

redshirt: Aug 11, 2007

the holy poopacy posted:

Not right away, but what do we do when Russia starts lobbing missiles at apartment blocks on NATO soil? It's a scenario where neither side can afford to not escalate.

Well that's a pretty big line to cross.

# ? Jul 20, 2023 15:59

Mr Lanternfly: Jun 26, 2023

I will never ever get over the feeling of shock when Russia actually invaded Ukraine on the morning of Feb 24, 2022. People always joke about putting their dicks in blenders, but by god Russia actually did it.

Everything since then has been a series of increasingly stupid decisions by Vladimir, A Real Piece Of poo poo, Putin.

# ? Jul 20, 2023 15:59

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

anonumos posted:

I was thinking more about how we don't dare set Ukraine up to destroy the invaders completely because that might trigger MAD. We are doing just enough to help but not enough to outright win. We're threading the needle, which is what our foreign policy has always been in proxy warfare. It may not be a proxy like Sudan or Libya, but the hands-off strategy is the same.

This is mostly right I think, but the proxy war framing of it is bothersome to me because it greatly reduces the role of Urkaine's own agency in the process

E: to add, Ukraine had been fighting the war for eight years prior to the (second or third depending on how you view 2014/2015) full scale invasion, with a fraction of western support it currently enjoys. I don't think it should be considered a proxy war for that reason

the holy poopacy posted:

Not right away, but what do we do when Russia starts lobbing missiles at apartment blocks on NATO soil? It's a scenario where neither side can afford to not escalate.

Hope you have your pip boy charged! 👍

HonorableTB fucked around with this message at 16:46 on Jul 20, 2023

# ? Jul 20, 2023 16:40

Dr. Quarex: Apr 18, 2003; I'M A BIG DORK WHO POSTS TOO MUCH ABOUT CONVENTIONS LOOK AT THIS

TOVA TOVA TOVA

Even if a Republican wins in 2024 nothing changes until January 2025. I know Russia is dedicated to drawing out this war forever but I just refuse to accept they will have enough military power left by then for it to enable them to complete their aims even if America goes full fascist.

# ? Jul 20, 2023 16:45

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

Dr. Quarex posted:

Even if a Republican wins in 2024 nothing changes until January 2025. I know Russia is dedicated to drawing out this war forever but I just refuse to accept they will have enough military power left by then for it to enable them to complete their aims even if America goes full fascist.

Ukraine is fielding more tanks at the moment than Russia is so they already don't have the power to achieve their aims

# ? Jul 20, 2023 16:47

Ripperljohn: May 13, 2014

HonorableTB posted:

Ukraine is fielding more tanks at the moment than Russia is so they already don't have the power to achieve their aims

wait what?

where'd you get that from?

# ? Jul 20, 2023 16:58

tiaz: Jul 1, 2004; PICK UP THAT PRESENT.

Zelensky's Zealots

Ripperljohn posted:

wait what?

where'd you get that from?

it was reported a while back based on Oryx counts of captured vs. destroyed. Based on initial invasion force iirc, doesn't count Russia's claimed not-in-Ukraine reserves that are definitely totally fine and being reactivated, just out of frame laughing too, but still.

# ? Jul 20, 2023 17:06

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

Ripperljohn posted:

wait what?

where'd you get that from?

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-overtake-russia-tank-numbers-losses-1811329

# ? Jul 20, 2023 17:08

Sophy Wackles: Dec 17, 2000; > access main security grid
access: PERMISSION DENIED.

I'm guessing with all the mining, dragons teeth, etc that Russia doesn't intend to try to take more territory anytime soon. Just defend and hope for an armistice.

# ? Jul 20, 2023 17:09

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# ? May 30, 2024 20:31

Sashimi: Dec 26, 2008; College Slice

Ripperljohn posted:

wait what?

where'd you get that from?

Ukraine has captured hundreds of Russian tanks which if taken at face value could give Ukraine an armor advantage when coupled with the enormous losses of armour experienced by Russia. However, the fog of war prevents us from knowing whether each captured tank is in perfect running order or a parts donor. So some optimistic observers would like to use this to claim Ukraine has an armour advantage at this point. The gap has definitely narrowed since the start of the war since the Ukrainians aren't throwing away valuable assets in things like half-assed river crossings, but to say they have an advantage is a statement that needs more proof.

# ? Jul 20, 2023 17:14

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