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Draft Kelce
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Jul 20, 2023 18:54
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ranbo das posted:Do you have a third round reversal? If so I might consider doing something like AR 1.11, AJB or GW 2.02 and Murray 3.02. Basically punt a season for the potential to be a beast We are doing 3rd round reversal. If those were my first 3 picks that's probably getting the best value for my picks, but I just don't like AR or Murray at all. I would rather draft Watson (don't like him either) or Prescott (meh). If I really want to punt a season I could see what I could get for 1.11. Maybe a 2024 1st and a mid round startup pick. But I'm probably better off just using the pick on someone like Bijan or Lamb. I could always trade a guy like Bijan later on for a haul and stock up on future picks if I feel that my team isn't good enough to compete in the near future.
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Jul 20, 2023 19:06
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Judgy Fucker posted:Hi fantasy football thread, I do not follow the NFL at all (college guy) but I’m tired of being the only person in my social circle who doesn’t play fantasy football so I’m diving in this year. I see a bunch of resources in the OP, I will take a look at those but wanted to ask: 1. Draft for upside and ignore downside. 2. Drafting small wins doesn't matter. There are never more then 5-10 true difference making players in a given season, so finding guys with that kind of upside is all that counts. Building a mediocre team out of ADP beating values probably won't elevate you to a championship.
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Jul 20, 2023 19:21
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Judgy Fucker posted:Hi fantasy football thread, I do not follow the NFL at all (college guy) but I’m tired of being the only person in my social circle who doesn’t play fantasy football so I’m diving in this year. I see a bunch of resources in the OP, I will take a look at those but wanted to ask: Focus on RBs and WRs (your format may favor one over the other). QBs are generally plentiful, TE is a wasteland if you don’t grab the top 1 guy like Kelce, so grab more potential WRs and RBs instead. Bellmaker fucked around with this message at 19:38 on Jul 20, 2023 |
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Jul 20, 2023 19:34
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Judgy Fucker posted:Hi fantasy football thread, I do not follow the NFL at all (college guy) but I’m tired of being the only person in my social circle who doesn’t play fantasy football so I’m diving in this year. I see a bunch of resources in the OP, I will take a look at those but wanted to ask: Huh, that's a fun one. Probably... understand the rules of your league and the site you're using. I think that's the biggest thing that changes what players are even good. There are settings that dramatically change the value of players. Like can you start 1 or 2 QBs (often called Superflex)? In Superflex QB is insanely important. Is it 0, 0.5, or 1 point per reception (PPR)? PPR can really boost guys who might not be total alpha studs but catch a billion 5 yard checkdowns. How and when do waivers work (this is when you drop and add new players during the season)? Understanding this stuff will help you avoid really big mistakes. Find some rankings you like and just use that starting out. Don't blindly follow them though. Like if you're up and the highest ranked player is an RB but your first 2 picks were also RBs you should probably take another position. Also "average draft position" (ADP) is a thing. It's a measure of where each player is picked on average across all drafts. Patrick Mahomes will have an earlier ADP than Baker Mayfield. "Reaching" for guys way earlier than their ADP is usually bad because you could have picked a more valuable player and likely still gotten that guy the next round. Getting guys who "fall" way later than their ADP can be good value. An example would be last year's Seahawks. Everyone thought they would suck rear end so they kept falling and falling. When they turned out to actually be quite good, anyone who gambled on their players in a late round looked brilliant. Guys in your draft app will probably be sorted by ADP so you don't need to go out of your way to find this. Do not take a kicker or defense until the final 2 rounds. We are always wrong about what defenses will be good and you can usually just "stream" the position by adding someone playing vs a poo poo team that week. It's supposed to be fun! Don't overthink it (unless you find that fun, like most of the degens in this thread). Draft players you like. Do trades. Talk mad poo poo. kiimo posted:Draft Kelce be aware that kiimo's mission in life (I hesitate to call it a posting gimmick since he's 100% sincere) is hyping all chiefs players all the time. Even guys who are probably not going to make the roster. But... he's not wrong here Ayudo posted:1. Draft for upside and ignore downside More or less agree as long as you aren't taking insane risks on every pick. You gotta take swings, nobody will ever care that you came in fourth with a bunch of boring safe dudes. If you aren't first you're last. The later you get in the draft the truer this gets. Late rounds are for "this guy probably won't do poo poo but if he does he's a league winner". If he fails who cares he was your 15th round pick dump him on waivers vvv all of this is good stuff Docjowles fucked around with this message at 19:49 on Jul 20, 2023 |
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Jul 20, 2023 19:39
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Judgy Fucker posted:Hi fantasy football thread, I do not follow the NFL at all (college guy) but I’m tired of being the only person in my social circle who doesn’t play fantasy football so I’m diving in this year. I see a bunch of resources in the OP, I will take a look at those but wanted to ask: I started playing FF for the same reason as you, except that at the time I had never watched a football game other than a Superbowl here and there (and I was only there to hang out). The first year I auto-drafted and basically had the internet manage my team. Second year I actually recognized some of the players and I drafted myself. From there I just started slowly learning more, watching more games, reading and so on until eventually I won a championship. Some random advice in no particular order: -There is a some skill involved but it all comes down to luck. You can read every article, make every "right" decision, spend hours looking at stats and still lose. -Stay involved in the waiver wire, setting up your team, and considering trades. You can actually turn a bad season around or keep improving a winning team. -If you will be playing again with the same people it is best to offer win-win trades or at least make offers that aren't insulting. You might fleece someone once but then they won't ever want to trade again. People value players differently and might have other needs so you can actually win on a trade. -Pay attention to the league rules, especially if it is normal, PPR (point per reception), or Half PPR. PPR shifts the value of players towards pass catching backs and WRs with more targets as opposed to pure RBs and long stretch WRs. -IMO it is not worth it to pay attention to BYE weeks when drafting, you can worry about that during the season. -Try not to draft too many players from the same teams. While it could work out it could also tank your season. If for example, you had a QB, WR and RB from the same team and the QB got injured that would make the whole offence worse and you'd be down 3 players. -TE, K and DST are mostly a crapshoot unless you have a top 3 TE, so usually it is better to just throw a dart during the season until you find a serviceable one. Only one person will have Kelce and most other will be playing the TE roulette. -Good player IRL does not necessarily mean good FF player. Justin Fields last season was pretty bad/average passing but he had some insane runs and you could get him off the waiver wire during the first half of the season. This year he is now going as a top 5-8 QB.
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Jul 20, 2023 19:45
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Docjowles posted:be aware that kiimo's mission in life (I hesitate to call it a posting gimmick since he's 100% sincere) is hyping all chiefs players all the time. Even guys who are probably not going to make the roster. But... he's not wrong here Deneric Prince, ba beh!
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Jul 20, 2023 20:11
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Judgy Fucker posted:Hi fantasy football thread, I do not follow the NFL at all (college guy) but I’m tired of being the only person in my social circle who doesn’t play fantasy football so I’m diving in this year. I see a bunch of resources in the OP, I will take a look at those but wanted to ask: Enjoy yourself, and don’t overthink yourself. If there’s a player you want, grab him.
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Jul 20, 2023 20:29
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kiimo posted:Draft Kelce The one time you should listen to Kiimo Judgy Fucker posted:Hi fantasy football thread, I do not follow the NFL at all (college guy) but I’m tired of being the only person in my social circle who doesn’t play fantasy football so I’m diving in this year. I see a bunch of resources in the OP, I will take a look at those but wanted to ask: Don't stress to hard about getting RB's if you're not drafting high. There's lots of guys who could handle being full time but are going to be stuck in committees. If the league is PPR or half you've got way more room for guys who will produce something respectable. Draft who YOU want always. If you think particular dude is going to be good grab him. Make the team your team not whatever the consensus ADP says. ADP should be treated as very loose guidelines not hard rules.
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Jul 20, 2023 23:12
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Yeah last year in the league with big rosters I loaded up on backup running backs. By the end of the season I had Kenneth Walker and Rachaad White starting for me. not that I won 
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Jul 20, 2023 23:23
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kiimo posted:Yeah last year in the league with big rosters I loaded up on backup running backs. By the end of the season I had Kenneth Walker and Rachaad White starting for me. Yeah it’s likely that if you pay attention to injuries and work the waiver wire you’ll end up with a top ten dude or two on your team that wasn’t even on the radar when your draft happened I’ve been playing for 8 years and my main advice is just pay attention. Not all of your league mates will. And nthing punt on TE until late in the draft if you don’t get a top 3 guy. Stock up on WRs with a good QB
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Jul 20, 2023 23:58
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Holy poo poo several really good replies.kiimo posted:Draft Kelce "Is this a joke or serious? I'm too ignorant to know." Ayudo posted:1. Draft for upside and ignore downside. I have no frame of reference to judge upside and downside in the NFL, and I do not know what you mean by "drafting small wins." But the second part of your post (the second sentence in particular) is really helpful in hindsight, I did not know what ADP was but it was clarified. Bellmaker posted:Focus on RBs and WRs (your format may favor one over the other). QBs are generally plentiful, TE is a wasteland if you don’t grab the top 1 guy like Kelce, so grab more potential WRs and RBs instead. Straightforward advice I totally comprehend. Thanks! Docjowles posted:Huh, that's a fun one. Probably...vv all of this is good stuff Playing ESPN, it'll either be 1 or 0.5 PPR. I guess they do some other funny rules that I infer are largely inconsequential and are mostly for laughs. Oh, and the Kelce thing wasn't a joke. Good to know! And confirmation of another person's experience similar to mine is awesome. Silly Burrito posted:Enjoy yourself, and don’t overthink yourself. If there’s a player you want, grab him. Ches Neckbeard posted:Draft who YOU want always. If you think particular dude is going to be good grab him. Make the team your team not whatever the consensus ADP says. Alright cool, if all else fails I'll just draft OU dudes or anyone else with a cool name or something.
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Jul 21, 2023 02:56
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Kelce got me into the playoffs the last 2 years. Seriously he is worth a first round pick
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Jul 21, 2023 06:06
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One of these days Kelce will be too old to draft Not today
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Jul 21, 2023 06:19
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kiimo posted:One of these days Kelce will be too old to draft No reason to think he can’t do it again
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Jul 21, 2023 06:23
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Cat Hassler posted:No reason to think he can’t do it again I dunno Kiimo is getting a little emphatic this year.....
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Jul 21, 2023 07:20
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Why spend on kelce when andrews do trick
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Jul 21, 2023 14:20
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Spoeank posted:Why spend on kelce when andrews do trick Why go to McDonald’s we have McDonald’s at home
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Jul 21, 2023 14:51
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Silly Burrito posted:Why go to McDonald’s we have McDonald’s at home lol Andrews is getting hyped this year and hell I like him too. But he’s only actually done the Kelce season one time. Kelce does it every god drat year.
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Jul 21, 2023 15:42
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I am not even sure if I would have Andrews in the top 5 TE.
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Jul 21, 2023 15:48
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You are receiving this broadcast as a dream...We are transmitting from the year one nine... nine nine ...You are receiving this broadcast in order t
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Pain of Mind posted:I am not even sure if I would have Andrews in the top 5 TE. are there even five TEs worth rostering this year?
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Jul 21, 2023 15:51
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Poque posted:are there even five TEs worth rostering this year? Just gonna quote this so I can post it once a year around this time. TE loving sucks and every single league would be better off scrapping it for another flex slot. Every year there's like maybe 4 worth even rostering and only because it's Kelce, who's draftable, and three random schmucks who all have a career year and then disappear.
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Jul 21, 2023 15:58
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Pain of Mind posted:I am not even sure if I would have Andrews in the top 5 TE. He’s the consensus #2 so you’re definitely out of step on that. But “experts” are also wrong all the time. Giving them the finger to draft your own favorite dudes and then being right is one of the joys of fantasy  Fantasypros has Pitts as TE5 and I don’t know how anyone can make themselves pull that lever again. Yeah draft for upside but the upside has to have some chance of manifesting.
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Jul 21, 2023 16:00
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Poque posted:are there even five TEs worth rostering this year? 1. Kelce, 2. Andrews, a big gap 3. Hockenson, 4. Pitts, 5. Freiermuth. That's the whole list. Edit: Shultz is your $1 punt the position guy. Ayudo fucked around with this message at 16:05 on Jul 21, 2023 |
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Jul 21, 2023 16:02
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Ayudo posted:1. Kelce, edit: Engram was TEP TE5 last year even though the Jags needed half the season to get the worst layers of the Urban Meyer stink off. AAAAA! Real Muenster fucked around with this message at 16:09 on Jul 21, 2023 |
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Jul 21, 2023 16:07
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AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:Calvin Ridley will take some looks away from Evan Engram (I think Ridley will take more looks from Zay Jones, personally) but I still think he'll be a solid TE this year. Dougie P loves his TEs. I'm sure Engram is good for like 130 - 150 FPTs (in .5PPR), but he definitely has more target competition this year than last. I just think those five guys are the most likely to finish top 3 at the position in about that order of probability.
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Jul 21, 2023 16:12
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Ayudo posted:I'm sure Engram is good for like 130 - 150 HPPR Pts, but he definitely has more target competition this year than last. I just think those five guys are the most likely to finish top 3 at the position in about that order of probability. Engram was 4th in receiving yards for a TE last year (1 yard ahead of Kittle lol) so I think he'll still produce in 0PPR or HPPR formats. AAAAA! Real Muenster fucked around with this message at 16:20 on Jul 21, 2023 |
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Jul 21, 2023 16:17
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I really enjoyed having Goedert last year (til he and Hurts both got injured at the end of the year and loving torpedoed my run). It was so nice to have a reliable ~10 points a week instead of my usual play of streaming some dipshit and hoping they don't give me a 0. I don't usually go in for mid round TEs but there was nobody else on the board in that range I liked so gave it a shot. I feel like he deserves some credit. edit AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:Engram was TEP TE5 last year even though the Jags needed half the season to get the worst layers of the Urban Meyer stink off. While technically true he was massively buoyed by one HUGE game against the Titans where he scored like half his points for the season. But hell, having that kind of ceiling is rare, so I get it. Docjowles fucked around with this message at 16:23 on Jul 21, 2023 |
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Jul 21, 2023 16:20
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Docjowles posted:I really enjoyed having Goedert last year (til he and Hurts both got injured at the end of the year and loving torpedoed my run). It was so nice to have a reliable ~10 points a week instead of my usual play of streaming some dipshit and hoping they don't give me a 0. I don't usually go in for mid round TEs but there was nobody else on the board in that range I liked so gave it a shot. I feel like he deserves some credit.
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Jul 21, 2023 16:21
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AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:I dont know what he would look like in Half PPR so it sounds like we're comparing apples to oranges. I think Engram will be a top five TEP TE, definitely ahead of Freiermuth (because its a Matt Canada offense) and probably ahead of Pitts because of the passing volume the Jags will have compared to the Falcons. Engram had 213 TEP points last year when the whole team was recovering from the Urban Meyer experience and learning the new offense. Year 2 will be noticeably better so I think at worst Engram will be around 200 TEP points this year if Ridley vultures targets. Engram was 4th in receiving yards for a TE last year (1 yard ahead of Kittle lol) so I think he'll still produce in 0PPR or HPPR formats. Oh yeah, TE premium the numbers are a bit better. If it's like +1 pt per reception vs everyone else then at least the top 5 or 6 TEs will score like a top 12 WR (and Kelce projects like a god in that format). In any other format though only the top 2 or 3 TEs matter at all.
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Jul 21, 2023 16:22
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IIRC Andrews started really well last year and then he fell of a cliff. I also had Hock in another league and he won me a couple of weeks with insane numbers but most other games he did nothing noteworthy.
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Jul 21, 2023 16:54
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Chernabog posted:IIRC Andrews started really well last year and then he fell of a cliff. I also had Hock in another league and he won me a couple of weeks with insane numbers but most other games he did nothing noteworthy. Yeah Andrews was red hot for the first ~third of the season, people were saying he might finally surpass Kelce as the TE1 (lol). He had a bunch of 20+ point PPR games. Then he was hurt for a while and when he finally got off the injury report, Lamar missed the rest of the year and all of their other players were dead too and the Ravens just generally ground to a halt. The upside case is everyone stays healthy and he plays like that again plus the new OC calls a more pass heavy offense. Will it happen that way? Who knows  For what it's worth Kelce's ADP on Underdog best ball is currently 6 to Andrews' 29. So if you feel like Andrews can have a Kelce season getting him in the third round and instead using your first on Diggs or Ekeler or AJ Brown or whatever is insanely good. But it's a huge IF edit: I'm excited that the fantasy thread is starting to pop off already 
Docjowles fucked around with this message at 17:16 on Jul 21, 2023 |
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Jul 21, 2023 17:09
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As an Andrews dynasty tight end haver, I am a bit worried about this season. A lot of sites predict increased numbers for him this season now that Lamar is healthy and contracted up but I do wonder how all these weapons will steal some targets from him. I'm still pissed I didn't get Flowers in dynasty. Speaking of dynasty I'm gonna be upset if the Jets pick up Dalvin Cook and tank my Breece Hall projections
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Jul 21, 2023 17:37
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Docjowles posted:He’s the consensus #2 so you’re definitely out of step on that. But “experts” are also wrong all the time. Giving them the finger to draft your own favorite dudes and then being right is one of the joys of fantasy I would be pretty comfortable with Kittle, Hockenson, Goedert, or Schultz over Andrews.
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Jul 21, 2023 17:38
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Schultz is interesting. He was sneaky and cheap on the Cowboys but with Houston he may get a lot more targets. Rookie QBs throw to tight ends a lot it seems. It's not like Nico Collins is going to be much of a target hog
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Jul 21, 2023 17:50
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I'm highly suspicious Schultz is just a guy and is now on a poo poo team with a rookie QB. But he's going in double digit rounds so like whatever. The "security blanket for the rookie" narrative is there if you want it.
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Jul 21, 2023 18:14
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I forgot he is no longer in Dallas, which probably drops him down my rankings some.
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Jul 21, 2023 19:04
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Ayudo posted:1. Kelce, To be fair Schultz won me my league for the first time last year he’s not THAT bad, those week 17 TDs were huge. Pain of Mind posted:I forgot he is no longer in Dallas, which probably drops him down my rankings some. Oops I also forgot this.
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Jul 21, 2023 19:21
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I’m gonna do whatever it takes to get Kelce and Mahomes this year lol
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Jul 21, 2023 19:41
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Kilometers Davis posted:I’m gonna do whatever it takes to get Kelce and Mahomes this year lol Hope you draft auction
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Jul 21, 2023 19:45
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