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Bellmaker posted:The abuse coverups in the Catholic Church coming to light are also a significant factor. The other thing is that small towns are shrinking, the small town protestant (or catholic) church closed with them driving people to MegaChurches.
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Aug 8, 2023 17:29
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DeadlyMuffin posted:There's a good argument that Nixon resigned because he thought he'd be impeached. Barry Goldwater of all people went to see Nixon and explained to him that the Republican Senate caucus would not support him lock-step, so Richard did the math and stepped down. Of course the real bad precedent was done in 1968 when Richard did an actual treason, but LBJ figured there wasn't enough evidence to charge his direct rival in the election with it. And the rest, as they say, is history.
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Aug 8, 2023 17:30
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I would be surprised if 'unable to attend' is even in the top 5 reasons why people aren't going to churches. Outside of a couple of regions where there's still a moderate amount of attendance, you pretty much can't pay people to go to church and in much of the country most congregations are a dwindling amount of old people.
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Aug 8, 2023 17:31
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Hunter Biden and his business associate were a front to funnel corruption money to Biden when he was Vice President in 2012 through 2018. Biden decided that when he was Vice President and during a time he was preparing to run for President, he needed to make a quick $60,000 by accepting bribes from the Chinese government and Russian-aligned Ukrainian oligarchs that were funneled through his son and brother's business as 10% of the profits from a deal with the Chinese government and the Ukrainian energy company Burisma. following all these conspiracies is just as difficult as folloing the trump family's actual crimes
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Aug 8, 2023 17:31
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InsertPotPun posted:right, i get the failson stuff, but "every member of the biden family" stuf is based on what? there are political cartoons depicting "every member of the biden family" with bags of cash. based on what? They are my enemy and therefore corrupt and wrong. Their power is both infinite and weak. Stop looking for logic when they just need to something to make people feel ok about hating Biden without having to think about it.
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Aug 8, 2023 17:34
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Harold Fjord posted:Honestly 60% is way less of a big deal than requiring signatures from all 88 counties to get on the ballot How so? A lot of things can fail for having majority but sub-60% support. I think anything where you’d conceivably have half the state voting for it you can find someone to sign in each county, especially in these days of shared voter lists. Any county where the party aligned with the amendment has a Facebook group? Pretty easy to find signatories. Not saying it’s not a roadblock, but it’s an organizational hurdle that’s easier than swinging an extra 10% of the vote.
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Aug 8, 2023 17:36
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I'll say this, as a parent to 4 small kids, that not having a social support structure or nearby family willing to help babysit has really curtailed my social activities for the past 12 years. My oldest will be 13 this fall and I am starting to warm up to the idea of him as a babysitter so we my husband and I can have a date night, but up until very recently we didn't have that luxury. I am actually looking forward to being a productive and social member of society again now that my kids are older, because being a stay-at-home parent to small kids can be very lonely.
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Aug 8, 2023 17:42
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InsertPotPun posted:right, i get the failson stuff, but "every member of the biden family" stuf is based on what? there are political cartoons depicting "every member of the biden family" with bags of cash. based on what? It usually spirals out of politically motivated telephone game. Like I think Joe Biden's brother Jim owns an undeveloped vacant lot in the Virgin Islands and this turned into the elaborate "Biden Compound" where Joe stays for his secret visions to Epstein's Island. Purely coincidental that it comes up when Trump's Epstein connections get mentioned in the media. Biden needs to be a wealthy elite of mysterious financing because of real stories with Like Trump/Thomas/Kavanaugh/etc.
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Aug 8, 2023 17:42
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VorpalBunny posted:I'll say this, as a parent to 4 small kids, that not having a social support structure or nearby family willing to help babysit has really curtailed my social activities for the past 12 years. My oldest will be 13 this fall and I am starting to warm up to the idea of him as a babysitter so we my husband and I can have a date night, but up until very recently we didn't have that luxury. I am actually looking forward to being a productive and social member of society again now that my kids are older, because being a stay-at-home parent to small kids can be very lonely. This is similar to our situation. No real support structure just devastates families with young kids. Even using a babysitting service it's like... a.) expensive and b.) you don't really know those people and leaving your kids with them presents its own anxieties. Honestly the fantasy of moving back to Mississippi... MISSISSIPPI... has presented itself just because we'd be back in the fold with our friends. poo poo is lonely out there.
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Aug 8, 2023 17:48
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Mooseontheloose posted:They are my enemy and therefore corrupt and wrong. Their power is both infinite and weak. Killer robot posted:It usually spirals out of politically motivated telephone game. Like I think Joe Biden's brother Jim owns an undeveloped vacant lot in the Virgin Islands and this turned into the elaborate "Biden Compound" where Joe stays for his secret visions to Epstein's Island. Purely coincidental that it comes up when Trump's Epstein connections get mentioned in the media. Biden needs to be a wealthy elite of mysterious financing because of real stories with Like Trump/Thomas/Kavanaugh/etc. and the people spreading this stuff have a nationwide reach with no oversight.
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Aug 8, 2023 17:56
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InsertPotPun posted:right, i get the failson stuff, but "every member of the biden family" stuf is based on what? there are political cartoons depicting "every member of the biden family" with bags of cash. based on what? They badly want Biden corruption scandals, because they need something to counter Trump's corruption scandals and because spreading an image of corruption was pretty effective against Hillary. They're desperate enough that in the absence of any actual scandals, they'll just make some up, stretching facts to the breaking point and filling in holes with conspiratorial thinking. It's not like their ultra-MAGA audience is going to start fact-checking it. Your boss is spluttering when you ask for specifics because he never thought about the specifics in the first place. He doesn't need to know the details, he'll happily take some Fw:Fw:Fw: thread at its word as long as it confirms what he wants to believe.
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Aug 8, 2023 18:07
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I think there's a very strong connection between multimedia technology and the decline in church attendance very specifically, to thread the needle here. In modern American Evangelicalism (which is mostly driving what we're talking about here, even though it does have a broader context), the whole idea of "church" has been whittled down to being all about the lead pastor preaching a really good sermon on Sunday. That is very rapidly losing its appeal because there's a limitless amount of as-good-or-better sermons available at all times. It started with radio, then televangelists, and now it's reached full saturation. Even if you're committed to your local church and you want the best for it, the fact that it's so laser-focused on preaching is becoming less and less appealing because you don't really need to go there to "get" good preaching. And that's just sermons. When you consider how that's also competing against all kinds of commentary about society from so many different sources -- many of them incredibly toxic, of course -- driving somewhere once a week to hear some local shlub do his best to put together 30 minutes talking about a 2000 year old book without offending anyone is pretty unappealing. I don't think the best pastor alive could keep this model going for much longer, which is probably a good thing in the long run, because it's far from the only model; it's really just the most recent one. If there's ever another "revival" I think it's going to be a shift away from sermon-centric church services. Because that really doesn't make a whole lot of sense anymore.
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Aug 8, 2023 18:09
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Sir Lemming posted:I think there's a very strong connection between multimedia technology and the decline in church attendance very specifically, to thread the needle here. In modern American Evangelicalism (which is mostly driving what we're talking about here, even though it does have a broader context), the whole idea of "church" has been whittled down to being all about the lead pastor preaching a really good sermon on Sunday. That is very rapidly losing its appeal because there's a limitless amount of as-good-or-better sermons available at all times. It started with radio, then televangelists, and now it's reached full saturation. Even if you're committed to your local church and you want the best for it, the fact that it's so laser-focused on preaching is becoming less and less appealing because you don't really need to go there to "get" good preaching. yeah whatever the next form will be it's almost certainly just going to be the answer to 'how tf do we get new people through the door'
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Aug 8, 2023 18:11
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All the Hunter Biden stuff has shown, to me, is that Hunter Biden *really* wanted people to think he had pull with Joe and managed to convince them that they did, but he really didn't and it was all a con on his part. And Joe for whatever reason was not willing to just cut his son off, even if it meant that he would take a political hit. Probably because of what happened with the rest of his family.
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Aug 8, 2023 18:16
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Killer robot posted:It usually spirals out of politically motivated telephone game. Like I think Joe Biden's brother Jim owns an undeveloped vacant lot in the Virgin Islands and this turned into the elaborate "Biden Compound" where Joe stays for his secret visions to Epstein's Island. Purely coincidental that it comes up when Trump's Epstein connections get mentioned in the media. Biden needs to be a wealthy elite of mysterious financing because of real stories with Like Trump/Thomas/Kavanaugh/etc. His brother (Jim) bought an island vacation home in Florida as an investment in 2013 and Joe Biden stayed there on a vacation at least once. Jim also owed taxes to the IRS and the IRS placed a lien on this rental vacation house. Jim wanted to unload the house two years later, but could not sell it because of the lien. Jim called around to rich donors he knew from fundraising to ask for a loan and one of them gave him a loan to pay off his taxes, get the lien lifted, and he then sold the house and paid back the loan. The fact that Jim was calling donors he knew from working on Joe's 2008 campaign while Joe was Vice President helps reinforce that he was peddling his name and time on a campaign for financial assistance because Jim only knew this guy who loaned him the money because he has been a big donor to Democrats for decades and he knew him through politics. Joe Biden wasn't involved and it wasn't illegal, but Jim Biden would have probably had a harder time and gotten a worse loan if he went through a bank instead of calling up a friend who he only knew from being involved with Biden's 2008 campaign. InsertPotPun posted:right, i get the failson stuff, but "every member of the biden family" stuf is based on what? there are political cartoons depicting "every member of the biden family" with bags of cash. based on what? The "Biden Crime Family" is composed of Joe Biden, Hunter Biden, and Jim Biden. - His sister also worked on his 1988 and 2008 campaigns, but hasn't been a part of the Biden Crime Family theories. - His other son, Beau, died of brain cancer in 2015. - One of his daughters died in the same car crash that killed his wife in 1972. - His other daughter works in dolphin preservation and is not involved in any of the crime family theories. - His 7 grandchildren range in ages from 5 to 29 and have not been a part of any of the Biden crime family theories. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 18:21 on Aug 8, 2023 |
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Aug 8, 2023 18:18
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Sir Lemming posted:I think there's a very strong connection between multimedia technology and the decline in church attendance very specifically, to thread the needle here. In modern American Evangelicalism (which is mostly driving what we're talking about here, even though it does have a broader context), the whole idea of "church" has been whittled down to being all about the lead pastor preaching a really good sermon on Sunday. That is very rapidly losing its appeal because there's a limitless amount of as-good-or-better sermons available at all times. It started with radio, then televangelists, and now it's reached full saturation. Even if you're committed to your local church and you want the best for it, the fact that it's so laser-.... Wikipedia has evangelicals as being outnumbered by mainline Protestants and Catholics, combined for Pew Research in 2014, individually by the Public Religion Research Institute in 2020. Just for the record.
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Aug 8, 2023 18:18
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ryde posted:All the Hunter Biden stuff has shown, to me, is that Hunter Biden *really* wanted people to think he had pull with Joe and managed to convince them that they did, but he really didn't and it was all a con on his part. And Joe for whatever reason was not willing to just cut his son off, even if it meant that he would take a political hit. Probably because of what happened with the rest of his family. There's also the fact that Hunter is still his son. It's hard for most parents to cut off their kids.
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Aug 8, 2023 18:24
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Shooting Blanks posted:There's also the fact that Hunter is still his son. It's hard for most parents to cut off their kids. Then there were the "incriminating" text messages and voicemails that were leaked out, that were basically loving messages from a dad to his struggling son. "Aw, what a good dad!" was not the response the GOP wanted, so they keep hammering the failson stories while totally ignoring the Trump kids and their proven grifts.
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Aug 8, 2023 18:29
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ryde posted:All the Hunter Biden stuff has shown, to me, is that Hunter Biden *really* wanted people to think he had pull with Joe and managed to convince them that they did, but he really didn't and it was all a con on his part. And Joe for whatever reason was not willing to just cut his son off, even if it meant that he would take a political hit. Probably because of what happened with the rest of his family. He did briefly cut him off entirely for a few years between 2015 and 2018, but reconnected after he tried to kill himself in 2018.
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Aug 8, 2023 18:30
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What is going on in Oakland? Crime is slowly falling in most of the U.S. after skyrocketing in 2020, 2021, and 2022. But, Oakland seems to have defied the trend. They aren't just defying the trend, but are exploding in the opposite direction and assaults/home invasions have nearly tripled. The NAACP has called for a state of emergency to be declared in Oakland, the city council says they can't do anything and want the state government to send in the national guard, and California Governor Gavin Newsom has said that he will send state police to Oakland. Burglary is down nationwide by 9%, but up 41% in Oakland. Homicide is down by about 10% nationwide, but is up 80% in Oakland. Car break ins are up 90% in Oakland. There doesn't seem to be an explanation for why Oakland is defying all the trends, but most groups are falling back on their usual hobby horses. Some people are saying that anti-police rhetoric has lead to a record low number of police after quits and transfers. Police response time is currently 6x higher than it was in 2015. Others say it is guns and economics. But, anti-police rhetoric, guns, and economic issues exist all throughout the country and have existed in Oakland for a significant amount of time prior to this year. https://twitter.com/KyungLahCNN/status/1688727808988598272 quote:Oakland’s crime rates are surging. Here’s how they compare with S.F. and other Bay Area cities https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/oakland-bay-area-rates-18259788.php
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Aug 8, 2023 19:13
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Those statistics are (almost literally) unbelievable and it makes me wonder if it has to do with some specific Oakland PD practice. Like, either an exaggeration/fabrication of statistics, or some back channel way of sending a message that it’s open season for criminals (to protest police accountability or give an impression of widespread lawlessness), or some other form of extreme corruption. (Hell, can we even put it past them to commit the “extra” crimes themselves?) Every possible explanation is defied by other places with the same issues that are not experiencing crime waves. So it’s time to start looking at specific people with power in the ravaged communities. Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 19:20 on Aug 8, 2023 |
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Aug 8, 2023 19:17
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I am thinking here of The Wire, in which a major plot point is the police department over- or under-reporting crime for political purposes.
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Aug 8, 2023 19:20
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VorpalBunny posted:I'll say this, as a parent to 4 small kids, that not having a social support structure or nearby family willing to help babysit has really curtailed my social activities for the past 12 years. My oldest will be 13 this fall and I am starting to warm up to the idea of him as a babysitter so we my husband and I can have a date night, but up until very recently we didn't have that luxury. I am actually looking forward to being a productive and social member of society again now that my kids are older, because being a stay-at-home parent to small kids can be very lonely. Definitely feel this. No nearby family right now and my two youngest (twins) are relatively difficult kids around bedtime to the point where I wouldn't want to inflict them onto a babysitter or anything, so its pretty much destroyed what little of my wife and I's social life once existed. Very hard to see when it may let up and I think i'm still coming to terms with the fact that it might not be until our oldest is around that 13 year old range (another 7 years....). Not really much to add aside from saying that its at least nice to see other people struggle with similar things.
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Aug 8, 2023 19:23
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Blue Footed Booby posted:Wikipedia has evangelicals as being outnumbered by mainline Protestants and Catholics, combined for Pew Research in 2014, individually by the Public Religion Research Institute in 2020. Just for the record. Evangelicals are very loud and outspoken, while a lot of mainline Protestants and Catholics are probably C&E types, (Christmas and Easter).
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Aug 8, 2023 19:25
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Voted No in Ohio on Issue 1. I hope it it wins. Today is the voting on that.
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Aug 8, 2023 19:26
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Regarding the loneliness thing I was biking around the other day and went by a park and saw a group of maybe 20-30 people playing games and cheering each other on and such and I thought "man I really would like to be doing what they are doing, being out with a whole group of people just having fun" and then I realized that: a. It was probably a church group and I am not even Christian and I know my synagogue doesn't do things like that b. None of my friends would ever organize a thing like this. Hell, some of my friends became complete shut ins during covid and have had to resort to therapy to gain the confidence to leave the house and be around people again. I used to organize a softball team in a rec league years ago before covid but I decided it was time to let someone else do the organizing and the whole thing fell apart because no-one else wanted to organize. It became a thing where I felt that the only way I would get to see people or do fun things is if I was the one making the effort to reach out and do something and it just got so tiresome after a while that the last year I just gave up on keeping in touch with people. I wouldn't say my friends are lazy (well they are) but it definitely feels like people are caught up in their own stuff and don't make time for socializing anymore, and to try do so feels like way more effort and stress than it is worth.
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Aug 8, 2023 19:29
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Mellow Seas posted:Those statistics are (almost literally) unbelievable and it makes me wonder if it has to do with some specific Oakland PD practice. Like, either an exaggeration/fabrication of statistics, or some back channel way of sending a message that it’s open season for criminals (to protest police accountability or give an impression of widespread lawlessness), or some other form of extreme corruption. (Hell, can we even put it past them to commit the “extra” crimes themselves?) It seems wild. But, the NAACP, local residents, and city council/mayor all say they are definitely feeling it. It's also pretty hard to fake a bunch of dead bodies and shootings for an 80% increase in homicide. It is definitely something unique to Oakland and pretty crazy. It doesn't seem to be happening anywhere else in the country to this degree.
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Aug 8, 2023 19:35
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There's a great Jason Isbel song that'll never be more appropriate to post, Something More Than Free. Forgive the video, only studio version I could find. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhIL8H2P1Jk I believe it's based on his father, and perhaps isn't 100% reflective of current conditions, but rather the attitude is relevant. Worn, alone (despite mentioning "friends" in the first verse), too tired for church. "The hammer needs a nail... And the poor man's up for sale Guess I'm doing what I'm on this earth to do And I don't think on why I'm here or where it hurts I'm just lucky to have the work And every night I dream I'm drowning in the dirt But I thank God for the work"
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Aug 8, 2023 19:44
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Madkal posted:Regarding the loneliness thing I was biking around the other day and went by a park and saw a group of maybe 20-30 people playing games and cheering each other on and such and I thought "man I really would like to be doing what they are doing, being out with a whole group of people just having fun" and then I realized that: FWIW, I joined a fraternal organization (The Freemasons) exactly for what you wrote above. People don't really socialize any more like they used too. Chatting on facebook and discord doesn't count.
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Aug 8, 2023 19:44
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Madkal posted:Regarding the loneliness thing I was biking around the other day and went by a park and saw a group of maybe 20-30 people playing games and cheering each other on and such and I thought "man I really would like to be doing what they are doing, being out with a whole group of people just having fun" and then I realized that: Finding a bike club that fits your style might be the thing. The Sierra Club in San Diego had this pre-covid but it really hasn't returned. I can ride fast but I won't ride in a pack because when I did that stuff eventually someone messes up and there's a crash.
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Aug 8, 2023 19:47
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:It seems wild. But, the NAACP, local residents, and city council/mayor all say they are definitely feeling it. It's also pretty hard to fake a bunch of dead bodies and shootings for an 80% increase in homicide. It's an 80% increase of homicide compared to 2019, not compared to last year. Homicides in Oakland are actually down compared to 2022, as are most other categories of crime. The only categories that have noticeably increased in Oakland in 2023 are robbery and motor vehicle theft, and the latter is skyrocketing everywhere, not just in Oakland. Why are robberies in Oakland in the first six months of 2023 happening at a somewhat greater rate than in the first six months of 2022, even though they dropped in other cities from the first half of 2022 to the first half of 2023? Just read that question back to yourself out loud and think about how specific and minor it is. It very well could be statistical noise. Personally, I think this is more of the same old alarmist crime reporting from the media, blowing up minor statistical differences into a massive crisis Eight months of Oakland's crime rate trending differently from other nearby cities could very well just be an outlier. Main Paineframe fucked around with this message at 19:52 on Aug 8, 2023 |
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Aug 8, 2023 19:50
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Prism posted:https://twitter.com/MikeSington/status/1688482767120838656 It's ironic because he's practically deaf due to age and thinks the crowd is cheering for him. "WE LOVE YA! WE LOVE YA!"
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Aug 8, 2023 19:56
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Main Paineframe posted:It's an 80% increase of homicide compared to 2019, not compared to last year. Homicides in Oakland are actually down compared to 2022, as are most other categories of crime. The only categories that have noticeably increased in Oakland in 2023 are robbery and motor vehicle theft, and the latter is skyrocketing everywhere, not just in Oakland. Those aren't really minor statistical differences, though. The difference between 24% and 80% is well beyond the range of statistically significant. Especially, when San Francisco - which is geographically right next door - had a huge drop in crime after spiking in 2020-2022. Oakland's crime rate trending differently from nearby cities IS an outlier. The fact that it is an outlier is what is strange.
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Aug 8, 2023 19:57
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:It seems wild. But, the NAACP, local residents, and city council/mayor all say they are definitely feeling it. It's also pretty hard to fake a bunch of dead bodies and shootings for an 80% increase in homicide. If anyone wants context on Oakland specifically, I highly recommend The Riders Come Out at Night. Oakland (like many communities) has a long history of police brutality and corruption, culminating in a scandal involving an intra-department gang known as "the Riders." Since the early 2000s, Oakland has operated under court supervision as part of the settlement in a large-scale civil rights lawsuit--with varying degrees of compliance or resistance to court orders. In short, while I understand that the local NAACP is also joining in on the calls for more policing, I would be very hesitant to take Oakland's municipal government at its word where Oakland PD is concerned.
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Aug 8, 2023 20:05
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Clinical trials have shown that the new injectable weight loss drug WeGovy also reduced stroke and heart-related illnesses by about 20%. Demand for these drugs was already going to be sky-high, but they are likely to explode even more now. Novo Nordisk's stock was up 19% today on the news. Federal law currently bans Medicare from covering drugs solely to treat obesity. These findings will give a significant push to the effort to have Medicare cover these drugs. However, they are expected to be massively expensive for the next several years due to shortages, inability to mass produce them on a level needed to provide them to everyone who would be eligible, and medical patent exclusivity periods. This one drug could increase Medicare's prescription expenditures by 12% per year if they decided to cover it and 2/3 of obese beneficiaries were to go on it. Private insurers have been slowly moving to cover the drug for people without diabetes (it was originally a diabetes treatment), but currently only about 30% of insurers cover it. The significant knock off effects on other health indicators besides obesity will likely result in more insurers covering the drug as a treatment instead of a "cosmetic" improvement. quote:Doctors say the study may dramatically alter how health insurers cover the medications, similar to how they now covers bariatric surgeries, which have been shown to reduce cardiovascular risks. https://twitter.com/business/status/1688856362686545920 quote:Obesity Drug Wegovy Cuts Risk of Heart Attacks and Strokes by 20%, Study Shows Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 20:11 on Aug 8, 2023 |
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Aug 8, 2023 20:08
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Cimber posted:Evangelicals are very loud and outspoken, while a lot of mainline Protestants and Catholics are probably C&E types, (Christmas and Easter). The topic of the conversation is why that might be.
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Aug 8, 2023 20:09
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It's wild that so many Americans need a pill or injectable or some pharma solution for weight loss. I understand *some* people really need solutions like this. But weight loss for most people isn't some obscure process. It's a matter of eating less and moving more, period. Too many Americans are just outright lazy.
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Aug 8, 2023 20:17
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Cimber posted:FWIW, I joined a fraternal organization (The Freemasons) exactly for what you wrote above. People don't really socialize any more like they used too. Chatting on facebook and discord doesn't count. I volunteer at two NGOs not because I'm more idealistic or moral than most but specifically and deliberately to get out, meet people and do things. I have sort of come to see it as something I just have to do for my wellbeing like working out...
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Aug 8, 2023 20:17
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Clinical trials have shown that the new injectable weight loss drug WeGovy also reduced stroke and heart-related illnesses by about 20%. To be clear to all involved, most coverage of the study is basically press materials from Novo Nordisk. They're looking for full blockbuster.
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Aug 8, 2023 20:20
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Private insurers have been slowly moving to cover the drug for people without diabetes (it was originally a diabetes treatment), but currently only about 30% of insurers cover it. The significant knock off effects on other health indicators besides obesity will likely result in more insurers covering the drug as a treatment instead of a "cosmetic" improvement. Man, I sure hope so. I was on Ozempic and my wife on Wegovy, but both our private insurance carriers have now begun denying because we don't have diabetes. I don't mind in the sense that people with diabetes need the meds, but they work. I lost about 20 pounds with Ozempic, my wife (who has also been much more dedicated to lifestyle changes) has lost almost 50 pounds. Both within the last 8-9 months.
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