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SerthVarnee posted:It absolutely makes a difference for the regular civilian population in Europe. I was also proud of us for helping with training Ukrainian troops and officers, that's a pretty big deal, too.
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Aug 22, 2023 09:41
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Herstory Begins Now posted:this is a very good point imo Yeah meant to mention, thanks for the different POV
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Aug 22, 2023 14:18
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What are good, non-twitter, resources to stay up to date on military developments? After months and months and months of hearing "the Russian ____ has collapsed and the front can't hold much longer", I need better sources Russia still has some friends, weapons, and troops; and no matter how weak the Ruble is, they haven't had anything close to a Turnip Winter. Even if they are constantly loving up and don't appear to have a chance for anything that looks like their stated victory conditions, it seems like they're dug in like a tick from hell and I want a more realistic picture of the situation
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Aug 22, 2023 18:49
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Fearless posted:A friend of mine who grew up in Bakhmut cites salo as one of her inspirations for becoming a vegetarian. As a vegetarian, salo is one of the few meat products I sometimes miss.
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Aug 22, 2023 18:58
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I never had Ukrainian salo but I had some Estonian lard and black bread and it was rly good
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Aug 22, 2023 19:06
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Non-paywalled link. Ukraine offensive stalling because Ukrainian forces are misallocated per US sources https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/22/...&smid=url-share
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Aug 22, 2023 19:23
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The Door Frame posted:What are good, non-twitter, resources to stay up to date on military developments? After months and months and months of hearing "the Russian ____ has collapsed and the front can't hold much longer", I need better sources ISW is about as good as it gets. They only publish once a day, though, so if you want play-by-play then it's not for you. https://www.understandingwar.org/
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Aug 22, 2023 19:24
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It’s getting to where checking in every couple weeks will probably serve the casual observer well enough for the next year or several.
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Aug 22, 2023 19:29
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PurpleXVI posted:More explosions in Moscow, also Ukraine apparently pushed past Robotyne today. Seems like that's a definite push through some of the heavier parts of the Russian lines of defense, I wonder how much more meatgrindering the Russians can take before they start breaking. Whole lot of Wermacht officers watching yet another encircled hundred thousand Soviets march into captivity asked the same question. Although that was a war of survival, and huge troop losses in against non-genocidal foes WWI & in Afghanistan did help prompt major political change, so who knows. GD_American posted:How many Backfires would the Ukrainians have to put lights out before they cease to be an operational threat? I know they say 63 in service, but cmon Wasn’t that an issue for the US using B52s in Vietnam in regards to how losing too many would put a key aspect of our nuclear delivery deterrent at risk? Don’t think losses got that high but it was a factor.
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Aug 22, 2023 19:49
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The whole population situation is different. Russia has already been teetering on the edge of demographic collapse and this war is only accelerating things. Even if tomorrow Putin achieved his wildest aims and fully annexed Ukraine and Belarus fully without a single drop more blood spilled he'd in ten-fifteen years be running a state that can't even rate as a secondary power.
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Aug 22, 2023 19:57
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CainFortea posted:There is no food with an umlaut that isn't good.
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Aug 22, 2023 20:07
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Gaius Marius posted:The whole population situation is different. Russia has already been teetering on the edge of demographic collapse and this war is only accelerating things. Even if tomorrow Putin achieved his wildest aims and fully annexed Ukraine and Belarus fully without a single drop more blood spilled he'd in ten-fifteen years be running a state that can't even rate as a secondary power. Secondary power? Russia is the largest country in the world with immense mineral wealth and a technical legacy inherited from a former superpower, but despite all of that they have the same nominal GDP as New York State. psydude fucked around with this message at 20:13 on Aug 22, 2023 |
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Aug 22, 2023 20:10
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windshipper posted:Non-paywalled link. quote:In recent days, Ukraine has started tapping into its last strategic reserves — air mobile brigades intended to exploit any breakthrough. At this point, maybe it would be best to pause the offensive and wait for next summer when they have F-16s, presumably other weapons, and more assault brigades trained over the winter?
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Aug 22, 2023 20:12
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OctaMurk posted:At this point, maybe it would be best to pause the offensive and wait for next summer when they have F-16s, presumably other weapons, and more assault brigades trained over the winter? Per ISW, they've managed to push through the insane minefields around Robotyne and now have freedom of maneuver in that part of the front. It looks like the Russian secondary lines of defense are spread thin, which means that a massive mechanized push would likely be able to capitalize on this to make rapid gains. I guess we'll see if they're able to actually exploit it, but conditions seem to be the best they've been so far in the counteroffensive.
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Aug 22, 2023 20:15
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Hyrax Attack! posted:Whole lot of Wermacht officers watching yet another encircled hundred thousand Soviets march into captivity asked the same question. Although that was a war of survival, and huge troop losses in against non-genocidal foes WWI & in Afghanistan did help prompt major political change, so who knows. It might have been a consideration for how they allocated planes. Vietnam B-52s was all D/E/F models with the G/H being kept in reserve for deterrence/ready alert. This is part of why they are still flying today, the H's really didn't get many flight hours until 2003.
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Aug 22, 2023 20:23
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windshipper posted:Non-paywalled link. Then again we've had people posting about how Ukraine is doomed and will never get anywhere or recover any territory since like April last year. I feel like the Ukrainians have largely positively surprised us so far and seem to have a pretty good idea what they're doing. I'd definitely trust them more than armchair generals and anonymous sources. As far as the offensive "stalling," they seem to be consistently retaking territory week after week, and at a faster pace than Russia did during their last big offensive, and that's even with the massive minefields facing them, and Russian milbloggers seem to be full of nothing but doom and gloom, generally saying that everything positive reported by the MoD is bullshit. It's not a rapid rush like the counteroffensive in Kharkiv oblast, but I'm not seeing anything I'd characterize as "stalling" or "stalled."
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Aug 22, 2023 20:27
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They're going forwards and the Russians are going backwards and if you try and recall what your expectations were 12 months ago I bet this is quite far on the positive end of things.
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Aug 22, 2023 20:42
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Gaius Marius posted:The whole population situation is different. Russia has already been teetering on the edge of demographic collapse and this war is only accelerating things. Even if tomorrow Putin achieved his wildest aims and fully annexed Ukraine and Belarus fully without a single drop more blood spilled he'd in ten-fifteen years be running a state that can't even rate as a secondary power. It will end because of unsustainable loss of military materiel or the civil or political will to keep fighting collapsing.
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Aug 22, 2023 21:04
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Gaius Marius posted:The whole population situation is different. Russia has already been teetering on the edge of demographic collapse and this war is only accelerating things. Even if tomorrow Putin achieved his wildest aims and fully annexed Ukraine and Belarus fully without a single drop more blood spilled he'd in ten-fifteen years be running a state that can't even rate as a secondary power. And Ukraine is being hit even harder. Their demographic profile was even worse than Russia's before the war and now they have both an exodus and a massacre of their young most productive and fertile generation. A large chunk of the refugees won't come back and a large amount of the soldiers not physically crippled by the war will still be traumatized PTSD wrecks. There might not really be a post war economic boom or even baby boom due to factors like this. The only thing that might help is if a massive marshall-plan aid from the west doesn't get eaten up by Ukrainian (+ western!) corruption. And the west are in aggregate ruled by stingy fucks that due to ideology don't even want to spend that amount on their own populations, so the post war future of Ukraine is gonna be... rough.
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Aug 22, 2023 21:07
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Gaius Marius posted:The whole population situation is different. Russia has already been teetering on the edge of demographic collapse and this war is only accelerating things. Even if tomorrow Putin achieved his wildest aims and fully annexed Ukraine and Belarus fully without a single drop more blood spilled he'd in ten-fifteen years be running a state that can't even rate as a secondary power. Mighty optimistic to say he'll be running things in 10-15 years. He's looking pretty rough. I have pretty severe doubts that he gives the slightest gently caress about what happens once he's gone.
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Aug 22, 2023 22:04
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PurpleXVI posted:Then again we've had people posting about how Ukraine is doomed and will never get anywhere or recover any territory since like April last year. I feel like the Ukrainians have largely positively surprised us so far and seem to have a pretty good idea what they're doing. I'd definitely trust them more than armchair generals and anonymous sources. Damning with faint praise imo
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Aug 22, 2023 22:24
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Zudgemud posted:And Ukraine is being hit even harder. Their demographic profile was even worse than Russia's before the war and now they have both an exodus and a massacre of their young most productive and fertile generation. A large chunk of the refugees won't come back and a large amount of the soldiers not physically crippled by the war will still be traumatized PTSD wrecks. There might not really be a post war economic boom or even baby boom due to factors like this. The only thing that might help is if a massive marshall-plan aid from the west doesn't get eaten up by Ukrainian (+ western!) corruption. And the west are in aggregate ruled by stingy fucks that due to ideology don't even want to spend that amount on their own populations, so the post war future of Ukraine is gonna be... rough. More than half of Ukrainian refugees have returned, despite the war still going on. Ukrainian GDP has mostly stabilized this year. Various European countries and entities have already pledged large amounts of money for rebuilding after the war. Ukraine is looking at rapidly integrating into or closer to the EU, which has a lot of experience at integrating Eastern European countries. Post-war future Ukraine is looking to be a lot more positive than it would have been under Russian control or if it had stayed in the Russian sphere of influence.
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Aug 22, 2023 23:10
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What will you tell your child when they ask you why you didn't invest in eastern Ukraine?
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Aug 23, 2023 00:10
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Xenoborg posted:It might have been a consideration for how they allocated planes. Vietnam B-52s was all D/E/F models with the G/H being kept in reserve for deterrence/ready alert. Huh interesting didn’t know that. A relative was B52 navigator on Operation Chrome Dome flights where we kept nuclear armed B52s in the air and then later he was on missions in Vietnam, I hadn’t thought it was a different model.
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Aug 23, 2023 00:45
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HelloSailorSign posted:What will you tell your child when they ask you why you didn't invest in eastern Ukraine? lol I saw one of those posters while connecting through Frankfurt in 2013. It was funny enough to take a picture, but I never thought anything more about it until now. I was going through a period where I was not very online (highly recommended) and had no idea it had a whole moment in meme culture.
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Aug 23, 2023 01:15
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USAFE Commander mentioned F-16squote:Ukraine won’t get a basic F-16 capability until at least 2024, and developing proficiency with that aircraft “could be four or five years down the road,” Gen. James B. Hecker, commander of U.S. Air Forces Europe and Air Forces-Africa, said Aug. 18. https://www.airandspaceforces.com/u...id%20Aug.%2018.
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Aug 23, 2023 02:00
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HelloSailorSign posted:What will you tell your child when they ask you why you didn't invest in eastern Ukraine? That I am broke enough investing in paying off my crippling mortgage debt.
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Aug 23, 2023 04:08
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Xenoborg posted:It might have been a consideration for how they allocated planes. Vietnam B-52s was all D/E/F models with the G/H being kept in reserve for deterrence/ready alert. There were at least some G's over North Vietnam, though they weren't as well liked, since the tail guns were remotely operated and there wasn't a dude back there who could spot SAM launches.
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Aug 23, 2023 04:29
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psydude posted:Per ISW, they've managed to push through the insane minefields around Robotyne and now have freedom of maneuver in that part of the front. It looks like the Russian secondary lines of defense are spread thin, which means that a massive mechanized push would likely be able to capitalize on this to make rapid gains. I guess we'll see if they're able to actually exploit it, but conditions seem to be the best they've been so far in the counteroffensive. There is also some evidence that Russia has been pulling substantial troops from other parts of the front to throw up in front of the advance near Robotyne. If so, and Ukraine has broken through and can conduct maneuver war you could see big changes quickly as the Russian line becomes unanchored.
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Aug 23, 2023 04:40
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DTurtle posted:Before the war there were roughly 300k births every year in Ukraine. Last year due to the war that dropped by roughly 30%. Losses are far, far, far below that (and not in any way at a level of a massacre). Quoting for future reference. Hope you're right, but I've got some doubts
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Aug 23, 2023 07:17
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Everyone genuinely should have invested in Poland, that economy is rocketing.
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Aug 23, 2023 08:29
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DTurtle posted:Before the war there were roughly 300k births every year in Ukraine. Last year due to the war that dropped by roughly 30%. Losses are far, far, far below that (and not in any way at a level of a massacre). Yes, 300k births are a lot, but deaths were still about 500-600k per year before covid and 300k births are not that helpful in fixing that awfully skewed population pyramid. You will also probably see the bigger slumps in births this year due to both the progressing pace of conscription during 2022 and the 9 months time of pregnancy. Poorer countries in the EU are also noted for having really troublesome brain drain to richer parts but that will only be a problem years from when the war ends. Personally I hope Ukraine can pull through but after the last 20 years of lovely rebuilding effort of various countries by the west I trust a successful westen rebuilding effort when I see it. Ukraine is likely still better off than under Russian control with the associated sanctions and neverending corruption, but it is still gonna be real hard post war for the country to bounce back economically and still pay off the massive costs for this war.
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Aug 23, 2023 09:29
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Poorer EU countries definitely have brain drain, which is especially damaging when they invest in education and those educated people move to richer countries to earn a lot more money. However, they still experience much higher growth for quite a while until they get closer to the rich countries and the drain abates. You could see that with Poland, where a lot of people moved to Germany and worked there until Poland caught up enough. The EU, for better and for worse, is run by true believers in free movement (of capital, labour, goods), and having an educated workforce and low wages attracts companies that want to sell to the other EU countries. Also, go through some of the poorer regions and you will find tons of infrastructure built with EU transfer funds. FWIW, I doubt Ukraine can join the EU this decade, and certainly not until Poland and Hungary have been dealt with and EU decision processes reformed to keep it from being constantly gridlocked.
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Aug 23, 2023 10:31
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https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1694325435490828627 https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1694282630244544768 If you listen to the Russian accounts, an Mi-8 helicopter got so lost it crossed the front lines unscathed, landed at a Ukrainian airfield, and before they could take off again, two of the crew got killed and the third got captured. If you listen to the Ukrainians, a defecting pilot flew the helicopter across the front line by prior arrangement with the GUR, landed, and then killed his companions who weren't aware of the change in flight path, before surrendering himself and the helicopter. Either way it's a pretty bad sign for Russia whether it's now not just cornered infantry surrendering, but pilots defecting with their craft OR their pilots not even having a clear idea of what airfields they're landing at, on which side of the front line. EDIT https://www.kyivpost.com/post/20857 According to the Kyiv Post, Ukrainian intelligence even evacuated the pilots family from Russia and the helicopter didn't just have its crew, but also a shipment full of spare parts for Su-27 and Su-30 planes. I'm not sure if Ukraine has any of those rolling around still, but presumably some airfield in Russia no longer has their needed spare parts. PurpleXVI fucked around with this message at 14:53 on Aug 23, 2023 |
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Aug 23, 2023 14:22
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^^^^ Ukraine does have Su-27s, never had 30s I think they usually have consumer GPS devices to avoid getting lost. And Poltava would be pretty lost. OddObserver fucked around with this message at 15:03 on Aug 23, 2023 |
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Aug 23, 2023 14:46
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PurpleXVI posted:If you listen to the Russian accounts, an Mi-8 helicopter got so lost it crossed the front lines unscathed, landed at a Ukrainian airfield, and before they could take off again, two of the crew got killed and the third got captured. Love the rissian tg joke: "if you want to get instabanned at Fighterbomber, just write"compass" in the comments"
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Aug 23, 2023 14:55
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OddObserver posted:^^^^ Ukraine had *one* Su-33, a prototype they sold to China in 2001 after Russia refused to sell them any Su-3x airframes.
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Aug 23, 2023 15:13
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I mean, in the photos there's a document with what appears to be blood splatter. So someone was wounded or shot.
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Aug 23, 2023 15:21
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CommieGIR posted:I mean, in the photos there's a document with what appears to be blood splatter. So someone was wounded or shot. Both versions of the story say that 2 crew members were killed.
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Aug 23, 2023 15:22
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OddObserver posted:^^^^ Not yet at least, but give it a few more helicopter defectors and...
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