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(Thread IKs: PoundSand)
 
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Pingui
Jun 4, 2006

WTF?

Zantie posted:

It's actually closer to three months, not weeks. Delta was sequenced in the states ages before it accelerated past Alpha and (in the PNW at least), Gamma. It was also sequenced in India in late 2020 before it accelerated in 2021 for them.

[edit] Yup, Ryan and Marc pointed out the same time-frame. Our memories get skewed and it's not always actually as fast as it felt like it was.
(..)

Yeah and in India the first murmurings of Delta went like this (double mutant = Delta):

https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavir...3092-2021-03-24 posted:

A new double mutant variant of Covid-19 found in India: Health ministry
India has detected a new double mutant variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, the Union health ministry said on Wednesday.
Mar 24, 2021

The INSACOG, a network of 10 Indian labs dedicated to conducting genomic sequencing and analysis of circulating Covid-19 viruses, has detected a double mutant variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus.

As per a statement issued by the Union health ministry, the double mutant virus has been detected in 15-20 per cent samples collected from Maharashtra.

"The analysis of samples from Maharashtra has revealed that compared to December 2020, there has been an increase in the fraction of samples with the E484Q and L452R mutations," the ministry statement said.
(..)

Big difference in case growth between catching a variant at ~1% of samples or 15-20%.

Pingui has issued a correction as of 16:21 on Aug 31, 2023

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Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme
Not sure about the specifics of catching Delta way back when, but you'd think BA 2.86 would be much easier to detect in sequencing data because it has so many mutations. Whereas if you're looking for just a few mutations, especially with lower-quality sequencing data, you might not see them.

Koirhor
Jan 14, 2008

by Fluffdaddy
can we please refer to this upcoming Covid Mini Wave as Fun Sized? I think it works better in focus groups.

Animal-Mother
Feb 14, 2012

RABBIT RABBIT
RABBIT RABBIT
"wavelet"

Pingui
Jun 4, 2006

WTF?

Zugzwang posted:

Not sure about the specifics of catching Delta way back when, but you'd think BA 2.86 would be much easier to detect in sequencing data because it has so many mutations. Whereas if you're looking for just a few mutations, especially with lower-quality sequencing data, you might not see them.

Probably and I vaguely recall sample quality being an issue in India. Either way the point is that even if Delta was detectable, it wasn't the talk of the town till months later. As opposed to BA.2.86 which is being talked about with very few samples.

Even if BA.2.86 is extremely contagious, it seems to have been found at a very early stage and even a very high Reff variant takes time to build up numbers. If Denmark is the country of origin, it may even have been found at the single or double digit level of infections.

Edit to respond to this edit.

Zantie posted:

Not so for many countries. Delta was absolutely sequenced, spotted, and watched before cases caused by it went up.
(..)

I don't disagree, we are just talking a bit past each other. I am talking about the initial spread in India for Delta and ZA for Omicron.

Pingui has issued a correction as of 16:55 on Aug 31, 2023

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003


"Gentle swell carrying you safely back to shore" has already been deployed

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003

Pingui posted:

Testing is (way) down in Denmark, but not sequencing (hence the concern):

The first BA.2.86 sample was from Week 30, where ~69% of samples were sequenced and 50% produced a genome.

Also noticed this (that's 9 BA.2.86 samples in Denmark):


Source: https://www.covid19genomics.dk/statistics

Ruh roh

Kragger99
Mar 21, 2004
Pillbug
mild ripple

Kragger99
Mar 21, 2004
Pillbug
Some content:

I posted this back at the start of July:

Kragger99 posted:

My city has been bubbling around Delta peak levels all year since Omicron. We're about to have our huge 10 day international event here starting next weekend (Calgary Stampede), and it sounds like they've already sold more tickets than in 2019.

Lets see how how much of a spike we see by ~end of July. Yee Haw?



They changed the way they report the wastewater data in Aug, but here's how it ended up. The first spike is Jul 19th - right after Stampede ended on the 16th, setting the second highest visitor count ever (1,384,632):



:smith:

E: school starts today as well.

Kragger99 has issued a correction as of 17:39 on Aug 31, 2023

Second Hand Meat Mouth
Sep 12, 2001

Strangelet Wave posted:

tomorrow's September. when do new life expectancy numbers drop (lol)

lmao

Strep Vote
May 5, 2004

أنا أحب حليب الشوكولاتة

Pingui posted:

Testing is (way) down in Denmark, but not sequencing (hence the concern):

The first BA.2.86 sample was from Week 30, where ~69% of samples were sequenced and 50% produced a genome.

Also noticed this (that's 9 BA.2.86 samples in Denmark):


Source: https://www.covid19genomics.dk/statistics

Mink's Revenge

Gunshow Poophole
Sep 14, 2008

OMBUDSMAN
POSTERS LOCAL 42069




Clapping Larry

Strangelet Wave posted:

tomorrow's September. when do new life expectancy numbers drop (lol)

wow I've been hoist on my expectations :(

I'll set another over/under at -0.5 years for all Americans in 2022, but heck they're ten days late and counting this year.

knowing how the institutions are crumbling maybe they just quietly won't compute the actuarial tables any more lol. Double lol at the chuds who have been beating the drum of raising the retirement age based on Americans living longer. Guess Medicare kicks in at 62 now, fuckos!!

fosborb
Dec 15, 2006



Chronic Good Poster
waiting to drop life expectancy tables until Friday afternoon, like a normal country

Zugzwang
Jan 2, 2005

You have a kind of sick desperation in your laugh.


Ramrod XTreme
Number go down.

Gunshow Poophole
Sep 14, 2008

OMBUDSMAN
POSTERS LOCAL 42069




Clapping Larry

Zugzwang posted:

Number go down.

???
??

Baddog
May 12, 2001

Gunshow Poophole posted:


I'll set another over/under at -0.5 years for all Americans in 2022, but heck they're ten days late and counting this year.


Apparently its all the smoke from canada that caused people to die earlier this year.



(I'm joking, but looking for ETA on life expectancy data, google is giving me articles from this week about smoke/pollution impacting life expectancy)

https://thehill.com/policy/equilibr...ifornia-report/

Gunshow Poophole
Sep 14, 2008

OMBUDSMAN
POSTERS LOCAL 42069




Clapping Larry

Baddog posted:

Apparently its all the smoke from canada that caused people to die earlier this year.



(I'm joking, but looking for ETA on life expectancy data, google is giving me articles from this week about smoke/pollution impacting life expectancy)

https://thehill.com/policy/equilibr...ifornia-report/

CDC releases the numbers 9 months after the close of the year so 2022 won't even have this year's wildfire smoke accounted for. I can't recall whether 2022 was particularly Fiery. Which was the year that Portland and Washington got absolutely hosed wasn't that 2021?

Gotta wait for August (or September) of 2024 to see Canada's inferno represented in global health!

Gunshow Poophole has issued a correction as of 17:59 on Aug 31, 2023

Rescue Toaster
Mar 13, 2003
I mean most all the omicron deaths happened in Jan/Feb 2022 right? So that's got to have a fairly large impact.

skooma512
Feb 8, 2012

You couldn't grok my race car, but you dug the roadside blur.
Tested negative but it's only day 2 since last exposure.

I'd go get a PCR test but lol lmao they closed that here. This is a hospital and they closed it.

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003

Looks like Peach has some Lucira stock with October expiration dates: https://shop.peachmedical.com/products/Lucira-Check-It-COVID-19-Test-Kit-PCR-quality-at-Home-p451364679

Zantie
Mar 30, 2003

Death. The capricious dance of Now You Stop Moving Forever.

Pingui posted:

[...]

Edit to respond to this edit.

I don't disagree, we are just talking a bit past each other. I am talking about the initial spread in India for Delta and ZA for Omicron.

Got it. Sucks we have to keep track of all these in the first place :argh:

Fenarisk
Oct 27, 2005

Love hearing from my unmasked coworker that she had 3 positive contacts (maskless on the floor) on the weekend alone. And told me this without a mask. After her and everyone else is chart reviewing in the main patient area, who are also all maskless.

While complaining her wife, who masks, is forcing her to lie about masking at work.

Love it.

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003

Fenarisk posted:

While complaining her wife, who masks, is forcing her to lie about masking at work.

:rubby:

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006
While I anxiously wait for the CDC to update its variant surveillance, I think it’s interesting that the three regions of the county they actually show have different situations going on.

In NY there’s no clear winner but Fl.1 and EG.5 are battling for dominance

EG5 has clearly pulled ahead in CA but FL.1 is dominating the south .

(as of 8/19)

Zantie
Mar 30, 2003

Death. The capricious dance of Now You Stop Moving Forever.
Bona Fide Masks is continuing their discount over the weekend:

"Please use coupon code TRUST for 25% off sitewide thru September 4th"

https://bonafidemasks.com/

Fur20
Nov 14, 2007

すご▞い!
君は働か░い
フ▙▓ズなんだね!

Steve Yun posted:



is EG5 about to get all about eve’d by FL151

Pillowpants posted:

EG5 has clearly pulled ahead in CA but FL.1 is dominating the south .

(as of 8/19)

never count out FL.1 "florida man"

tangy yet delightful
Sep 13, 2005



It's almost time for my daughter to go back to school so I find myself reading the latest school district document (2 pages) provided to families about what sickness symptoms should have you keeping your child home. Things like fever, pink eye, vomiting, etc. I will give you one guess how many times the word covid appears in this document.

U-DO Burger
Nov 12, 2007




gentle soothing ripples of covid, ribbed for your pleasure

Strep Vote
May 5, 2004

أنا أحب حليب الشوكولاتة

Fenarisk posted:

Love hearing from my unmasked coworker that she had 3 positive contacts (maskless on the floor) on the weekend alone. And told me this without a mask. After her and everyone else is chart reviewing in the main patient area, who are also all maskless.

While complaining her wife, who masks, is forcing her to lie about masking at work.

Love it.

:negative:

Ferdinand Bardamu
Apr 30, 2013

Fenarisk posted:

Love hearing from my unmasked coworker that she had 3 positive contacts (maskless on the floor) on the weekend alone. And told me this without a mask. After her and everyone else is chart reviewing in the main patient area, who are also all maskless.

While complaining her wife, who masks, is forcing her to lie about masking at work.

Love it.

I had an unmasker coworker come into work (they can WFH whenever) feeling ill, leaving her workspace one room over from mine after a few hours and coming back to quietly gather her things and leave. Only a few hours later was I informed by another coworker scrubbing her hands with soap in the sink. No email from my boss or boss's boss like what was done in 2022 when this dipshittery happened.

NeonPunk
Dec 21, 2020

https://twitter.com/yunlong_cao/status/1697318198033658090

https://twitter.com/yunlong_cao/status/1697318204325114192

https://twitter.com/yunlong_cao/status/1697318210289463507

In short, there's gonna be zero "natural" immunity anywhere at all lmao

On the good side, it gave up some transmission abilities to gain further immune evasion so it will be a slower spread (until it regains their transmission capabilities in a later variant)

Deep Dish Fuckfest
Sep 6, 2006

Advanced
Computer Touching


Toilet Rascal
new and updated boosters gonna be here just in time i see

DominoKitten
Aug 7, 2012

August has been a very, uh, full COVID work month for me. Day 1: an email from my team's boss about how me and a bunch of other people should test because we'd all been exposed to someone who recently tested positive. Honestly I was just surprised anybody would bother to notify anyone and that my company still kept rapid tests around for people to use for that, so good on them I guess? I'm one of the few masking hold outs at work, with an elastomeric no less, and between that and the office's excellent ventilation I wasn't particularly concerned on my own account.

Then during a routine update with the guy in charge of all our cluster computers, he talked about ending up bedridden for 10 days from COVID after his trip to headquarters the previous month (he's remote). He did not strike me as a particularly vulnerable person, but it sounded brutal. I don't know if he was the person who caused the previous positive notification, but if so, the notification came WAY too late for anything actionable.

At some point during a videoconference chat, another coworker told me that he's been getting sick so much since he's gotten COVID, like he never has before.

Then while team coworker A was out on a long vacation, another team member B came down with COVID that took them out for a good few days, and I was trying to carry both of their stuff during that time.

B got better, but yesterday coworker A informed us that she's now caught COVID and won't able to come back from across the country until next week. She was supposed to be back today and instead I'm trying to reverse engineer stuff she does and get it done.

During one of my once a week office sojourns, I was moseying through downtown in my respirator and passed by a guy earnestly holding up a sign proclaiming that COVID vaccines kill. Around us, a smattering of morning tourists (all unmasked) were taking selfies and studiously ignoring the freaks in their midst, to my relief and acceptance and I assume sign guy's chagrin.

COVID: It's over!

DominoKitten has issued a correction as of 21:09 on Aug 31, 2023

Koirhor
Jan 14, 2008

by Fluffdaddy
I’m just joker laughing constantly its all so loving useless and stupid

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


Deep Dish Fuckfest posted:

new and updated boosters gonna be here just in time i see

can't come soon enough. Jesus.

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003

Well that's not great since the updated booster is targeting XBB.1.5. BA.2.86 is as distinct from XBB.1.5 as XBB.1.5 was from BA.1.

Ferdinand Bardamu
Apr 30, 2013
lol, lmao even

Zantie
Mar 30, 2003

Death. The capricious dance of Now You Stop Moving Forever.

Koirhor posted:

I’m just joker laughing constantly its all so loving useless and stupid

Gunshow Poophole
Sep 14, 2008

OMBUDSMAN
POSTERS LOCAL 42069




Clapping Larry

The Oldest Man posted:

Well that's not great since the updated booster is targeting XBB.1.5. BA.2.86 is as distinct from XBB.1.5 as XBB.1.5 was from BA.1.

getting to the hypothetical point that many of us have referenced of their being a nice variant soup out there in equilibrium. such that nobody ever has ANY efficacious infection-derived antibodies.

lol lmao etc d2a

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Precambrian Video Games
Aug 19, 2002





I don't loving want the center-libertarian variant.

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