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(Thread IKs: skooma512)
 
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shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1699458435946074530?s=20

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i am harry
Oct 14, 2003


also we’re all still on the same page about these numbers being bullshit right? that the true number is much higher

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008

I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

Vox Nihili posted:

all historical data prior to 2020 was rendered meaningless by the invention of Bidenomics

This is sorta true.

Rectal Death Adept
Jun 20, 2018

by Fluffdaddy
I'm on team Sun

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

shrike82 posted:

can't you view PDFs from your browser?
i figured the standalone PDF reader app was dead

they're the standard for sending business documents

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

i am harry posted:

also we’re all still on the same page about these numbers being bullshit right? that the true number is much higher

what's true is that the vast majority of covid deaths are among the old & the near-old.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

i am harry posted:

also we’re all still on the same page about these numbers being bullshit right? that the true number is much higher

the official figures are useful for identifying trends and the most impacted groups

the excess mortality figures are what you want for the real totals

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008

I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY
https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1699536330651316532?t=Z5MYHTowNWGReX8XyvmSmQ&s=19

We did it

net work error
Feb 26, 2011


Just like the human centipede it has gone through the system and now everything ends happily ever after.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005


When you're doing a ton of insider trading and other securities fraud, you can afford to pay $111/hour!

Rectal Death Adept
Jun 20, 2018

by Fluffdaddy

Vox Nihili posted:

the official figures are useful for identifying trends and the most impacted groups

the excess mortality figures are what you want for the real totals

Yeah. Excess mortality is a concrete number. It is unfortunate that it became so political. Ultra-right wing people want to claim any deaths at all were a conspiracy because they need to believe the virus wasn't bad or centrist democrats want to claim it was extremely terrible but they fixed it completely and all of the deaths stopped in the Trump administration because nobody died on Biden's Watch.

From an economics standpoint I think it would be pretty important to account for the actual death toll. It explains the job market because the deaths were targeted at the oldest and most experienced people and then it triggered a wider retirement surge when remaining olds saw their peer group get owned.

Instead we keep chopping away at the knees of an imaginary 1950s factory worker post Big One with interest rate charges because the rebuilding is giving him too much wages.

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
I attended a webinar with Isabella Weber talking about seller's inflation. Sharing some notes I took during the talk:

seller's inflation begins from an impulse at the bottom/base of the value chain: steel, energy
COVID collapsed demand, then prices exploded once demand picked back up and shut-down manufacturing was unable to keep up
despite high amounts of corporate concentration, firms were not exploiting their "price setting" power during "normal times", due to the risk of losing market share
the cost/profit shock triggered by COVID essentially acted as a "coordinating device" across firms to begin taking advantage by increasing prices to protect margins
and since the impulse begins at the bottom of the value chain, the price setting propagates across the entire economy
prices go up, but wages do not, so real wages go down, and the cost shock is passed back to the consumer

COVID's shock to just-in-time supply chains also encourages this behavior, because firms know that their competitors are not able to scale up their own production in response to raised prices, because everyone in an industry is already maximally producing, as they're limited by the supply chains

the decline in wages and living standards will motivate workers to fight back, hence the spike in union activity and militancy
but this instigates even more conflict, because firms will also want to raise prices even further in response to being forced to react to higher wage demands. Essentially, there is a second "impulse" of seller's inflation triggered by firms trying to protect their profit margins against demands for higher wages (as opposed to protecting profit margins that were set during the post-COVID recovery)

[Weber notes that the Ukraine conflict is yet another shock, but also says that seller's inflation was already latent even as early as 2021]

comparison to the past: unions were much stronger during the 1970s oil shock, which allowed labor to be in a better position to protect its "margins"

central banks: their problem is that their response basically comes down to hiking interest rates to put a stop to the second impulse, from labor fighting back, when they didn't help with fighting the price shock from the first impulse
"if you try to make everyone poorer, at a time when everyone is still trying to recover, you're taking out the dynamism of your economy"
Weber specifically makes a direct connection with the deliberate infliction of poverty on the working class as part of the economic response to inflation, with the rise of right-wing extremism
Weber notes that the lack of imagination in responding to inflation also stems from a lack of institutional knowledge on having to deal with inflation in the West, such as people defaulted to Econ 101 because nobody had experienced this kind of inflation in a long time (when also combined with theoretical path dependency)

Question: what are alternative policies for dealing with inflation? sectoral responses to supply shortfalls and/or demand explosions. Some industrial sectors are far more important to the economy than others, and yet economic responses to inflation keep focusing on the aggregate. Strategic petroleum reserve to protect oil. Investment in port infrastructure to protect freight.
Raising freight prices does not resolve traffic jams at a port. A sanctions regime that restricts energy imports creates its own shock.
"Price controls can only buy time, but buying time can be extraordinarily consequential"
We need policies that stabilize peoples's standard-of-living, rather than letting the corporations pass on all the costs to the consumer. Labor's wage catch-up was needed, was necessary, it shouldn't be fought against

thechosenone
Mar 21, 2009
It also won't just stop because they want it to. They're gonna have to get used to increasing amounts of violence to keep control with this level of bullshit, and unfortunately for them that further reduces profit. Ultimately they're gonna reduce the productivity of industries until it falls below the price of a well built Chinese factory churning poo poo out and it won't matter if they enslave the whole continental US because the cost of inputs and the low outputs will be too much for their process.

Marx himself said something that implied this, but given I've only recently read the Manifesto I strongly doubt any failsons have read Capital, even though it should be required when they're educated. Would probably hurt their feelings if they had to know they weren't the source of their success though.

text editor
Jan 8, 2007

skooma512 posted:

They did get the memo that the stock market moves in hours if not seconds right? Some forms of trading bump up against the speed of light itself because they want to microseconds faster.


We're to the point where this ape thing is a major motion picture. poo poo is beyond over, but they just let their gambling play sit there thinking it was some kind of activism lmao.

WSB/Superstonks is just a new variant of Bitcoin-brain, where the dogma is that you have to hodl for years, maybe decades, before the Lambo rapture comes. It's not very far off from Q-anon Trust The Plan rhetoric, so they keep digging themselves in until they missed the last chance to get out before their Iraqi dinars/dogecoin they invested everything in are worthless

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




that seems spot the gently caress on gradenko

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

i think people were discussing foreign travel a while back
https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1699445349977297028?s=20

Complications
Jun 19, 2014

shrike82 posted:

i think people were discussing foreign travel a while back
https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1699445349977297028?s=20

wait what's this 'despite the economy' poo poo i thought bidenomics had the economy booming, a chicken in every pot, and fat smiling children on every street corner from how employed all their parents were

Brain Curry
Feb 15, 2007

People think that I'm lazy
People think that I'm this fool because
I give a fuck about the government
I didn't graduate from high school



Complications posted:

wait what's this 'despite the economy' poo poo i thought bidenomics had the economy booming, a chicken in every pot, and fat smiling children on every street corner from how employed all their parents were

By a continuous shifting of rhetorical focus, the economy is at the same time too strong and too weak

Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry

text editor posted:

WSB/Superstonks is just a new variant of Bitcoin-brain, where the dogma is that you have to hodl for years, maybe decades, before the Lambo rapture comes. It's not very far off from Q-anon Trust The Plan rhetoric, so they keep digging themselves in until they missed the last chance to get out before their Iraqi dinars/dogecoin they invested everything in are worthless

maybe superstonk, those people are genuinely insanely psychotic. wsb is actually a really interesting ecosystem of self-awareness: it's a bunch of shoeshine boys realizing they're polishing the soles knobs of the rich forever unless they try to FOMO YOLO for the 0.1% chance to get out, but also with the self-awareness that they won't and are just burning money in a pyramid scheme being bag holders.

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

did Marx predict that capitalists would start printing infinite money and giving it to themselves

Twigand Berries
Sep 7, 2008

Lol Wal Mart is putting a police station in a store.

https://www.thestreet.com/retailers/walmart-makes-a-first-ever-change-to-prevent-crimes-in-superstore

Father Wendigo
Sep 28, 2005
This is, sadly, more important to me than bettering myself.

Prohibition cemented police department ties to organized crime in major cities, it makes sense that they're sharing a bed with the brands now.

Woke Mind Virus
Aug 22, 2005

Has anyone said Brandonomics yet?

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008


2024 rate cuts & new ATHs back on the menu, lock it in

Buy buy buy

RealityWarCriminal
Aug 10, 2016

:o:

Brain Curry posted:

By a continuous shifting of rhetorical focus, the economy is at the same time too strong and too weak

Morbus
May 18, 2004

gradenko_2000 posted:

We need policies that stabilize peoples's standard-of-living, rather than letting the corporations pass on all the costs to the consumer. Labor's wage catch-up was needed, was necessary, it shouldn't be fought against

"this machine designed to maximize profits should not maximize profits"

insane clown pussy
Jun 20, 2023

OBAMNA PHONE
Aug 7, 2002

did they order insane clown pussy

Mola Yam
Jun 18, 2004

Kali Ma Shakti de!
bloomin' pussy

Mr. Pizza
Oct 5, 2009


Slow News Day posted:

Yep he will definitely do that!

drat america is hosed up

Ghost Leviathan
Mar 2, 2017

Exploration is ill-advised.

euphronius posted:

did Marx predict that capitalists would start printing infinite money and giving it to themselves

If not I feel like he wouldn't be that surprised

StealthArcher
Jan 10, 2010




euphronius posted:

did Marx predict that capitalists would start printing infinite money and giving it to themselves

He did literally call out the suez ship a century and a half early, so there's always the possibility he drunkenly wrote something along that line.

Ammanas
Jul 17, 2005

Voltes V: "Laser swooooooooord!"

Vox Nihili posted:

a bunch of people are getting thrown off of Medicaid now because they didn't fill out the paperwork right, changed addresses, filed late, etc. following the lapse of the pandemic-era "just let them have Medicaid" protections



in particular, we are killing a ton of poor children



https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/medicaid-enrollment-and-unwinding-tracker/

yeah it turns out expecting states and counties to do literally millions of redeterminations (while still taking new applications) wasnt really reasonable or possible so just kick em all off and they can reapply if they got a problem with it

can you link the article this is from

Centrist Committee
Aug 6, 2019

thechosenone posted:

It also won't just stop because they want it to. They're gonna have to get used to increasing amounts of violence to keep control with this level of bullshit, and unfortunately for them that further reduces profit. Ultimately they're gonna reduce the productivity of industries until it falls below the price of a well built Chinese factory churning poo poo out and it won't matter if they enslave the whole continental US because the cost of inputs and the low outputs will be too much for their process.

yep plus china now leads an economic block more powerful than the g7 and its dual circulation model has allowed it to decouple from the us much more effectively so doomsday economics stays winning

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/06/business/china-car-exports.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

net work error
Feb 26, 2011

gradenko_2000 posted:

I attended a webinar with Isabella Weber talking about seller's inflation. Sharing some notes I took during the talk:

seller's inflation begins from an impulse at the bottom/base of the value chain: steel, energy
COVID collapsed demand, then prices exploded once demand picked back up and shut-down manufacturing was unable to keep up
despite high amounts of corporate concentration, firms were not exploiting their "price setting" power during "normal times", due to the risk of losing market share
the cost/profit shock triggered by COVID essentially acted as a "coordinating device" across firms to begin taking advantage by increasing prices to protect margins
and since the impulse begins at the bottom of the value chain, the price setting propagates across the entire economy
prices go up, but wages do not, so real wages go down, and the cost shock is passed back to the consumer

COVID's shock to just-in-time supply chains also encourages this behavior, because firms know that their competitors are not able to scale up their own production in response to raised prices, because everyone in an industry is already maximally producing, as they're limited by the supply chains

the decline in wages and living standards will motivate workers to fight back, hence the spike in union activity and militancy
but this instigates even more conflict, because firms will also want to raise prices even further in response to being forced to react to higher wage demands. Essentially, there is a second "impulse" of seller's inflation triggered by firms trying to protect their profit margins against demands for higher wages (as opposed to protecting profit margins that were set during the post-COVID recovery)

[Weber notes that the Ukraine conflict is yet another shock, but also says that seller's inflation was already latent even as early as 2021]

comparison to the past: unions were much stronger during the 1970s oil shock, which allowed labor to be in a better position to protect its "margins"

central banks: their problem is that their response basically comes down to hiking interest rates to put a stop to the second impulse, from labor fighting back, when they didn't help with fighting the price shock from the first impulse
"if you try to make everyone poorer, at a time when everyone is still trying to recover, you're taking out the dynamism of your economy"
Weber specifically makes a direct connection with the deliberate infliction of poverty on the working class as part of the economic response to inflation, with the rise of right-wing extremism
Weber notes that the lack of imagination in responding to inflation also stems from a lack of institutional knowledge on having to deal with inflation in the West, such as people defaulted to Econ 101 because nobody had experienced this kind of inflation in a long time (when also combined with theoretical path dependency)

Question: what are alternative policies for dealing with inflation? sectoral responses to supply shortfalls and/or demand explosions. Some industrial sectors are far more important to the economy than others, and yet economic responses to inflation keep focusing on the aggregate. Strategic petroleum reserve to protect oil. Investment in port infrastructure to protect freight.
Raising freight prices does not resolve traffic jams at a port. A sanctions regime that restricts energy imports creates its own shock.
"Price controls can only buy time, but buying time can be extraordinarily consequential"
We need policies that stabilize peoples's standard-of-living, rather than letting the corporations pass on all the costs to the consumer. Labor's wage catch-up was needed, was necessary, it shouldn't be fought against

This is good stuff, thanks for sharing

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Ammanas posted:

yeah it turns out expecting states and counties to do literally millions of redeterminations (while still taking new applications) wasnt really reasonable or possible so just kick em all off and they can reapply if they got a problem with it

can you link the article this is from

The link is in the post you quoted

corona familiar
Aug 13, 2021


really cranking up the climate undertones with that headline

(archive.ph link)

corona familiar has issued a correction as of 10:23 on Sep 7, 2023

webcams for christ
Nov 2, 2005

gradenko_2000 posted:

I attended a webinar with Isabella Weber talking about seller's inflation. Sharing some notes I took during the talk:

thank you for promoting Isabella Weber thought o7

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Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Best Friends posted:

It has insanely rich people literally stepping over the indigent every day. absolutely insane inequality, right in your face. the obvious solution that dems and republicans agree on: make the homeless go away and pay cops more. easy and bipartisan

I see you’ve been to Vancouver

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