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(Thread IKs: weg, Toxic Mental)
 
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HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006
Macron was first and foremost trying to win his election. That was the entire reason behind why he was such a visibly public force leading up to the full scale invasion.

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Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



Nelson Mandingo posted:

Honestly it's funny how Putin is going to be known as the guy who crippled Russia, where before Feburary 2022 he would have gone down in history as the man who did everything he could to restore the nation to greatness before they became a resource colony of China.
Whatever his ultimate reputation, he definitely broke his army's dick doing this poo poo. I suppose if they are able to reconstitute and reconstruct it, it will probably be a better force pound per pound, but how much military can Russia afford?

For that matter, are all their nuclear deterrent stuff also soviet vintage? Are they building any new missile subs?

HonorableTB posted:

Macron was first and foremost trying to win his election. That was the entire reason behind why he was such a visibly public force leading up to the full scale invasion.
Yeah I figured this was a lot of it. I am not trying to defend the man but he's the President of France, not a player avatar for France in Hearts of Titanium 2: from the Cold War through the first two Cyber Wars.

bad boys for life
Jun 6, 2003

by sebmojo

Von Pluring posted:

Come on, there's a lot of euros itt, we don't understand American football. Do something universal like lacrosse or Aussie rules.

Team Russia has lost all of their starting players, has scored on themselves repeatedly, and are now conscripting their fans directly into the game.

Their newest equipment was broken along with their starters, and they have replaced it all with gear from the players grandparents.

They think they are winning.

McGavin
Sep 18, 2012

Nessus posted:

I suppose if they are able to reconstitute and reconstruct it, it will probably be a better force pound per pound

After all we have seen so far, do you really believe this?

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

HonorableTB posted:

Macron was first and foremost trying to win his election. That was the entire reason behind why he was such a visibly public force leading up to the full scale invasion.

He should've nuked russia, and then easily cruised to victory. France is the only EU country with their own arsenal so it's entirely within his ability.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

HonorableTB posted:

Macron was first and foremost trying to win his election. That was the entire reason behind why he was such a visibly public force leading up to the full scale invasion.

that was only up until april 2022, his efforts wrt putin and ukraine didn't change all that much after the election

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

McGavin posted:

After all we have seen so far, do you really believe this?

North Korea-style starving infantry-driven army with armored spearheads commanded by brainwashed but capable officers would be better at offence than the current Russian clown show is so there is a chance that this might be true.

Of course attacking NATO country with one would be a very short war, but there are regions west of Urals that aren't in NATO yet.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



McGavin posted:

After all we have seen so far, do you really believe this?
In terms of equipment? It seems plausible, if only for whoever's defending Moscow and St. Petersburg.

In terms of training? Well...

Vampire Panties
Apr 18, 2001
nposter
Nap Ghost

Der Kyhe posted:

Poland bought enough so that they can be shared with the class if Putin decides in 5-10 years to go somewhere else in the Eastern Europe and USA is lead by a known Putin associate on work release parole and Germany manages to find someone even more spinless to replace the current head of state.

:hmmyes:

Since the current HIMARS are from the 90s, it seems like they keep well. I'd have to assume that Poland is going to bring support and ammo manufacturing in-house, so with ongoing technology updates HIMARS could still be effective a hundred years from now.

Also 18 absolutely loving wrecked Russia's poo poo. A 10b investment for land-based artillery seems steep, but its way cheaper than the NATO CAS platinum package.


Nelson Mandingo posted:

Honestly it's funny how Putin is going to be known as the guy who crippled Russia, where before Feburary 2022 he would have gone down in history as the man who did everything he could to restore the nation to greatness before they became a resource colony of China.

:hmmno: He was always going to be known as the guy who crippled Russia. The oligarchic system he created/enforced has ruined whatever societal progress Russia had made under the USSR. IMO Poot Poot somehow came to this realization a decade ago (albeit he may have simply asked the question "what the gently caress am I going to do with all this money I stole") and figured that if he reunited the satellite states back into a functioning nation*, he may have a proud spot in Russian history. :lol::lmao: but he got too greedy and delved too deep





*:airquote: functioning :airquote: because oligarchs would loot,pillage, and burn everything to the ground 10x worse then they did in Russia.



EDIT

Nessus posted:

Whatever his ultimate reputation, he definitely broke his army's dick doing this poo poo. I suppose if they are able to reconstitute and reconstruct it, it will probably be a better force pound per pound, but how much military can Russia afford?

For that matter, are all their nuclear deterrent stuff also soviet vintage? Are they building any new missile subs?

Russia's army won't reconstitute for a generation at least. Russia is at a point where they have to build the schools to train the engineers to design the factories to produce the tanks.
As for Russia's military production of large-scale vessels, :shrug: Russia's press releases and whatnot are worthless and the IC who can see the satellite imagery don't share. The big outcome of the Ukraine war is that India seems to have canceled (but maybe not?) several large orders of military equipment, which may or may not include the nuclear sub deal they had.

Vampire Panties fucked around with this message at 21:03 on Sep 11, 2023

capitalcomma
Sep 9, 2001

A grim bloody fable, with an unhappy bloody end.

bad boys for life posted:

Team Russia has lost all of their starting players, has scored on themselves repeatedly, and are now conscripting their fans directly into the game.

Their newest equipment was broken along with their starters, and they have replaced it all with gear from the players grandparents.

They think they are winning.

I'm trying to think of how to fit Russian demographic size vs Ukrainian demographic size into this metaphor, without coming across as demeaning to Ukraine..."Russia is losing all of these games to the local varsity team" might not be quite right.

large hands
Jan 24, 2006

This Wang Fang seems like a real jerk.

kru
Oct 5, 2003

large hands posted:

This Wang Fang seems like a real jerk.

Good name though, so, highs and lows

Karate Bastard
Jul 31, 2007

Soiled Meat

Nessus posted:

Whatever his ultimate reputation, he definitely broke his army's dick doing this poo poo. I suppose if they are able to reconstitute and reconstruct it, it will probably be a better force pound per pound

I didn't think we needed a tingleverse writeup yet but maybe we've come to this.

karoshi
Nov 4, 2008

"Can somebody mspaint eyes on the steaming packages? TIA" yeah well fuck you too buddy, this is the best you're gonna get. Is this even "work-safe"? Let's find out!
Can you park 486 HIMARSes on the biggest container ships and empty their magazines without the ship sinking? Asking for a project.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



Vampire Panties posted:

Russia's army won't reconstitute for a generation at least. Russia is at a point where they have to build the schools to train the engineers to design the factories to produce the tanks.
As for Russia's military production of large-scale vessels, :shrug: Russia's press releases and whatnot are worthless and the IC who can see the satellite imagery don't share. The big outcome of the Ukraine war is that India seems to have canceled (but maybe not?) several large orders of military equipment, which may or may not include the nuclear sub deal they had.
Well, what I meant here is more the boomers which are their nuclear deterrent. Most of the arguments in favor of Russia have a primary or strong secondary aspect of "they might decide to end the world because they were so upset the Ukrainians took over their land," and Russia obviously encourages this.

But the nuclear missile submarines are the second strike deterrent.

I know Russia has a successful nuclear industry, or at least did; and I suspect somehow that Putin and co. might not be recruiting Rosatom workers too industriously. Send pediatricians to the front instead. So they can presumably make new nuclear weapons when the old ones spoil.

They have a rocket and space industry, so missiles could be replaced in some form, albeit perhaps with downgrades in capacity. But the missiles have to be somewhere, and I am confident there are desks somewhere in Virginia whose job is to know exactly where every Russian land based nuclear missile is located.

But the boomers - these are harder. Russia had such a large nuclear arsenal that even a 99% failure rate could still be unthinkable devastation, but hasn't Ukraine already shot down (non-nuclear) ballistic missiles using 1990s technology?

At a certain point they lose this, and then what do they have? Oil? Gas?

Vampire Panties
Apr 18, 2001
nposter
Nap Ghost

karoshi posted:

Can you park 486 HIMARSes on the biggest container ships and empty their magazines without the ship sinking? Asking for a project.



I think you could only fit 6-8 maybe?

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

capitalcomma posted:

I'm trying to think of how to fit Russian demographic size vs Ukrainian demographic size into this metaphor, without coming across as demeaning to Ukraine..."Russia is losing all of these games to the local varsity team" might not be quite right.

Russian national team loses to Ukrainian under 16s. :drat:

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
Kyiv Globetrotters

karoshi posted:

Can you park 486 HIMARSes on the biggest container ships and empty their magazines without the ship sinking? Asking for a project.
Only one way to find out I'm afraid

karoshi
Nov 4, 2008

"Can somebody mspaint eyes on the steaming packages? TIA" yeah well fuck you too buddy, this is the best you're gonna get. Is this even "work-safe"? Let's find out!

Vampire Panties posted:



I think you could only fit 6-8 maybe?

Oh poo poo, Taiwan is doomed.

appropriatemetaphor
Jan 26, 2006

karoshi posted:

Can you park 486 HIMARSes on the biggest container ships and empty their magazines without the ship sinking? Asking for a project.

Yes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePXNonhvZQg&t=38s

Sophy Wackles
Dec 17, 2000

> access main security grid
access: PERMISSION DENIED.






It's like one of those movies where the archers in the castle shoot thousands of arrows at the opposing army. Only with rockets.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Nessus posted:

Well, what I meant here is more the boomers which are their nuclear deterrent. Most of the arguments in favor of Russia have a primary or strong secondary aspect of "they might decide to end the world because they were so upset the Ukrainians took over their land," and Russia obviously encourages this.

But the nuclear missile submarines are the second strike deterrent.

I know Russia has a successful nuclear industry, or at least did; and I suspect somehow that Putin and co. might not be recruiting Rosatom workers too industriously. Send pediatricians to the front instead. So they can presumably make new nuclear weapons when the old ones spoil.

They have a rocket and space industry, so missiles could be replaced in some form, albeit perhaps with downgrades in capacity. But the missiles have to be somewhere, and I am confident there are desks somewhere in Virginia whose job is to know exactly where every Russian land based nuclear missile is located.

But the boomers - these are harder. Russia had such a large nuclear arsenal that even a 99% failure rate could still be unthinkable devastation, but hasn't Ukraine already shot down (non-nuclear) ballistic missiles using 1990s technology?

At a certain point they lose this, and then what do they have? Oil? Gas?

France is another nation that maintains its own independent nuclear arsenal, and its a much larger economy which runs about 300 functional warheads compared to Russia's rampart cleptocracy and corruption saying that they have thousands of nuclear weapons. Owning and maintaining nuclear weapons is very, _very_ expensive if you want to ensure that your weapons actually work when needed, or even function just enough that they might work.

Not to mention that the nuclear arms are the ultimate grift; you cannot use them, you cannot even really test them anymore. If you ever need them the civilization you knew is already about to be over. So why not just fill the bunkers, silos and tubes with USSR leftovers that don't work anymore, and proclaim that you still have them.

Let the western coordinators to check and inspect the 20-50 ones you still have that are most likely to be functional and if they show indications that they might cease to work in near future just withdraw from the treaties and threat anyone asking with violence.

Obviously no-one wants to take this bet, but I bet its just another paper bear at this point.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






HonorableTB posted:

Macron was first and foremost trying to win his election. That was the entire reason behind why he was such a visibly public force leading up to the full scale invasion.

Yeah and he got clowned by Putin lmao

OctaMurk
Jun 21, 2013

spankmeister posted:

Yeah and he got clowned by Putin lmao

Iirc Putin would just ramble about poo poo for hours lol. Complete waste of time

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006
we will never know how much prescription horse cum putin was ordered to consume (this is almost certainly embellished in some regard, there's typos throughout but it's a good lol anyway so take it with a grain of salt)

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/putin-doctor-arrested/

quote:

The depot's doctor Viktor Trukhin, 59, is said to have an intimate knowledge of the madman's medical history and was arrested by the security services.

The vaccine chief went missing six days ago - when he was dismissed from his Russian state job following allegations of fraud.

He was a leading researcher in Russia's latest vaccine development.

Trukhin was stopped by Putin's forces trying to escape abroad through close neighbour and wartime allie Belarus.

He was formerly the director of the St Petersburg Research Institute of Vaccines and Serums.

"He tried to leave the Russian Federation for Belarus and was detained by officers of the Russian FSB, who apparently knew that the director… planned to travel abroad," Telegram channel Cheka-OGPU reported.

The latest defection comes after a top Russian rocket scientist was mysteriously poisoned in the secretive state.

Professor Vitaly Melnikov, 77, had headed the Department of Rocket and Space Systems at RSC Energia before becoming suddenly seriously ill days before he died.

A Moscow newspaper claimed that inedible mushrooms were the reason for his sudden downturn in health.

Russian doctors were unable to save Melkinov from the "severe poisoning" that he suffered - as he battled against his fate for more than two weeks after he fell ill.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat
486 himars? Foolish Westoids, Russian military tech is already using Pentium 1

Karate Bastard
Jul 31, 2007

Soiled Meat
Pantium Doo

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






North Korea is already on that Cyrix 5x86 power

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

HonorableTB posted:

Macron was first and foremost trying to win his election. That was the entire reason behind why he was such a visibly public force leading up to the full scale invasion.

To add to this French intelligence believed it was a very elaborate bluff, in fact their military intelligence chief was sacked over it. There was good reason for them not to believe it, Russia had committed absolutely inadequate forces for a full scale invasion of Ukraine. They agreed with intelligence assessments from other countries 'yeah we can see that tanks, field artillery and field hospitals are being deployed along the border but invading Ukraine and dealing with an insurgency with that sort of sized deployment is bonkers.' The US obviously had intelligence within the upper echelons of the Kremlin.

Toxic Mental
Jun 1, 2019


Jesus, imagine if one of them misfired and blew up on the deck...

Karate Bastard
Jul 31, 2007

Soiled Meat
FIRE!!!

*entire ship sinks as single melted hunk of slag*

Deus Ex Macklemore
Jul 2, 2004


Zelensky's Zealots

Nessus posted:

Well, what I meant here is more the boomers which are their nuclear deterrent. Most of the arguments in favor of Russia have a primary or strong secondary aspect of "they might decide to end the world because they were so upset the Ukrainians took over their land," and Russia obviously encourages this.

But the nuclear missile submarines are the second strike deterrent.

I know Russia has a successful nuclear industry, or at least did; and I suspect somehow that Putin and co. might not be recruiting Rosatom workers too industriously. Send pediatricians to the front instead. So they can presumably make new nuclear weapons when the old ones spoil.

They have a rocket and space industry, so missiles could be replaced in some form, albeit perhaps with downgrades in capacity. But the missiles have to be somewhere, and I am confident there are desks somewhere in Virginia whose job is to know exactly where every Russian land based nuclear missile is located.

But the boomers - these are harder. Russia had such a large nuclear arsenal that even a 99% failure rate could still be unthinkable devastation, but hasn't Ukraine already shot down (non-nuclear) ballistic missiles using 1990s technology?

At a certain point they lose this, and then what do they have? Oil? Gas?

What you're missing here is that the moment any Russian Missile Boats make any noise like they're going to launch missiles, they'll be "dealt with". One or two might get off, but I don't believe for a second that ANY of their subs would survive the first 10 minutes of an underwater fun fest, especially what we have seen of their military over the last year and a half.

Like, I used to think it would be a close match because their subs WERE getting updated and such, but holy poo poo do I not think that anymore.

tiaz
Jul 1, 2004

PICK UP THAT PRESENT.


Zelensky's Zealots

spankmeister posted:

North Korea is already on that Cyrix 5x86 power

that's only 430. pitiful

zone
Dec 6, 2016

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1701333867318128825#m

quote:

Worrying news about “Murz” who is a Russian Telegram channel admin and a volunteer in the 4th Brigade of the so-called “LPR”, he is known for being close to Girkin at certain times as well as truth posting about the state of the Russian military on his channel.

He had a conflict with his "Prizrak" battalion leadership which got fed up with him spending millions of rubles on radio and comms systems for the 4th brigade. They accused him of forgetting the battalion's interests and desiring to find favours from the brigade's leadership.

Murz, who is a veteran of this war, announced that he will stop all volunteer work and that he is hoping to be on the frontline soon.
Looks like, according to the prediction he himself made, he's going back to the battlefield.

Von Pluring
Sep 19, 2003


Zelensky's Zealots
Pork Pro

bad boys for life posted:

Team Russia has lost all of their starting players, has scored on themselves repeatedly, and are now conscripting their fans directly into the game.

Their newest equipment was broken along with their starters, and they have replaced it all with gear from the players grandparents.

They think they are winning.

Finally, terms I get!

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006
Russia's submarine fleet is extremely noisy by western submarine standards. US subs will routinely tail Russian surface boats as well as submarines and take photos of them from the periscope and release them as a big gently caress you from one navy to another. The US navy can and does track nuclear capable subs whenever it gets a chance.

Coolguye
Jul 6, 2011

Required by his programming!
none of the nukechat matters because unless you, personally, are willing to gamble hundreds of thousands of lives on what amounts to your gut feeling that the other guy is bluffing, you have to assume that he's telling the truth and he can in fact kill hundreds of thousands of people with an order.

it's such a teeteringly stark situation that even if you take that gamble and win, it's likely that the balance of people will see you as a reckless fool rather than a tough visionary, because there is absolutely no way you could've known for certain and you gambled the lives of more people than have made up our entire species at many points in our history on what "felt" correct. you would be one of the most dangerous idiots alive, even if you were right in that one instance.

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

Coolguye posted:

none of the nukechat matters because unless you, personally, are willing to gamble hundreds of thousands of lives on what amounts to your gut feeling that the other guy is bluffing, you have to assume that he's telling the truth and he can in fact kill hundreds of thousands of people with an order.

it's such a teeteringly stark situation that even if you take that gamble and win, it's likely that the balance of people will see you as a reckless fool rather than a tough visionary, because there is absolutely no way you could've known for certain and you gambled the lives of more people than have made up our entire species at many points in our history on what "felt" correct. you would be one of the most dangerous idiots alive, even if you were right in that one instance.

Yes, but knowing the realities you are dealing with also enables you to tell the Russians to go gently caress themselves when they start the Nth "this is red line we will nuke everyone if you help our victim"-bullshit.

They most certainly don't have the nukes to take on everyone at the same time like the USSR used to have. They at best have a devastating first strike against one enemy (EU, USA or China) or lukewarm general first strike against everyone, and questionable ability to do second strike at this point.

But again, no one sane actually relies on this, very obvious, situation because if even one nuke fires everyone basically loses. Unless there is very, very strong evidence showing that Russian nuclear arsenal is rotting in the tubes even worse than their inherited ex-USSR navy is.

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



Coolguye posted:

none of the nukechat matters because unless you, personally, are willing to gamble hundreds of thousands of lives on what amounts to your gut feeling that the other guy is bluffing, you have to assume that he's telling the truth and he can in fact kill hundreds of thousands of people with an order.

it's such a teeteringly stark situation that even if you take that gamble and win, it's likely that the balance of people will see you as a reckless fool rather than a tough visionary, because there is absolutely no way you could've known for certain and you gambled the lives of more people than have made up our entire species at many points in our history on what "felt" correct. you would be one of the most dangerous idiots alive, even if you were right in that one instance.
Unless you know, for a fact, he isn't.

Now that said, the requirements for proof would be immensely high, due to the stakes, but it does not seem inconcievable that such information could be found, verified, and held close to the vest.

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the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

spankmeister posted:

Yeah and he got clowned by Putin lmao

Russia's only decisive victory

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