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abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


ShowTime posted:

I think i've gotta take this trade, right? It's a tough one though.

My: Tyreek Hill and Rhamondre Stevenson
His: Bijan Robinson and Garrett Wilson

I really don't wanna lose Tyreek, but it's Bijan. It would shore up some issues I have at RB. I have Rhamondre obviously, but also Alexander Mattison, Tyler Allgeier and Roschon Johnson. I have a pretty deep WR line up with Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk, Amari Cooper and Drake London.

no.

i would always rather have the elite wr over the elite rb. the latter is so much more injury prone.

plus, hill is looking to be the premier option in a historic offense. there's a chance he puts up the greatest wr season ever. at least one of them. meanwhile, bijan will be stuck with atl and may not see as much usage late in games.

of course, this assumes they stick with ridder. i don't think we're that far away from heinicke time, so...that would have to help bijan. but over tyreek?

i don't know, just not compelling enough. i'm holding tyreek where i can. i would absolutely have to be floored to move him. think jefferson+.

i would definitely do whatever i can to move stevenson, though.

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Gobias Ind.
Apr 5, 2007

If your girlfriend says hey to me that's our girlfriend now idc

ShowTime posted:

I think i've gotta take this trade, right? It's a tough one though.

My: Tyreek Hill and Rhamondre Stevenson
His: Bijan Robinson and Garrett Wilson

I really don't wanna lose Tyreek, but it's Bijan. It would shore up some issues I have at RB. I have Rhamondre obviously, but also Alexander Mattison, Tyler Allgeier and Roschon Johnson. I have a pretty deep WR line up with Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk, Amari Cooper and Drake London.

I wouldn't. I agree with abelwingnut in that Hill and Bijan are in the same tier (Tier 1) but in that case I'd rather have the receiver over the back. Garrett Wilson is supremely talented and you're never going to feel good about starting him. He's a headache to own right now.

If it's something you really want to do I'd try to move Mattison instead of Rhamondre.

Bellmaker
Oct 18, 2008

Chapter DOOF



Yeah Bijan is great but no one can steal wins from your opponent the way Tyreek can.

Dango Bango
Jul 26, 2007

Absolutely do not trade Tyreek for anyone on the Falcons. You should be getting basically CMC for him if you trade.

ShowTime
Mar 28, 2005
Yea Tyreek is hard to give up. He's just on a team with outstanding other talent and they like to dish the ball around to as many of them as possible. And I don't really need Garrett when i've got other WR's, but he has no one else on the team i'd be going for. He is offering me his 1st and 2nd round picks. I might try and counter offer with 1 of my other great WR's, but I don't wanna insult the man. I could maybe get away with offering him 2 other WRs, like Amari Cooper and Drake London or something. His other WR is Olave and he's got Zay Flowers too (which I mistakenly dropped in week 1 because the ESPN UI blows)

Docjowles
Apr 9, 2009

Don’t be suckered by “Wilson was my second round pick!” His value went from top 5 WR to like fourth rounder the moment Rodgers’ Achilles popped. I would value him more like, idk, Terry McLaurin than what we were expecting from Wilson during draft season. He’s basically a flex who has a chance to go off (as a Wilson haver myself, it sucks!)

You don’t have to make a trade. If the guy can’t give you fair value for Hill, don’t talk yourself into it. Also I would much rather have Olave or Flowers than Zach Wilson edition Garrett Wilson

Docjowles fucked around with this message at 17:54 on Oct 3, 2023

FAT32 SHAMER
Aug 16, 2012



Speaking of Dolphins weapons, Waddle sure isn’t doing a lot out there

Docjowles
Apr 9, 2009

FAT32 SHAMER posted:

Speaking of Dolphins weapons, Waddle sure isn’t doing a lot out there

Yeah I noticed :mad:

FAT32 SHAMER
Aug 16, 2012



Docjowles posted:

Yeah I noticed :mad:

I can’t decide if I want to run waddle in my flex spot against NYG, or recognise that Hill/Mostert/Achane are getting the ball and put Jacobs @ GB in that spot instead.

Jacobs surprised me in week 4 after three weeks of 8-9pts with a 24pt game, but after seeing what Kamara did his first game back, I’m not sure who will be the more consistent pick provided that Garoppolo is still out

Anti-Hero
Feb 26, 2004

Dango Bango posted:

Absolutely do not trade Tyreek for anyone on the Falcons. You should be getting basically CMC for him if you trade.

This has me really evaluating my roster. I have a pretty good RB corps with CMC, King Henry, Conner, Rhamondre, White, Spears, Charb

My WRs? Higgins, Watson, Mike Williams (RIP and dropped) Jacobi Meyers, and then bench stashes

Sitting at 3-1 but I feel incredibly vulnerable and not certain CMC can lead me to promised land alone. Would you consider trying to trade CMC in my case?

Bellmaker
Oct 18, 2008

Chapter DOOF



Anti-Hero posted:

This has me really evaluating my roster. I have a pretty good RB corps with CMC, King Henry, Conner, Rhamondre, White, Spears, Charb

My WRs? Higgins, Watson, Mike Williams (RIP and dropped) Jacobi Meyers, and then bench stashes

Sitting at 3-1 but I feel incredibly vulnerable and not certain CMC can lead me to promised land alone. Would you consider trying to trade CMC in my case?

WRs are usually aplenty on the waiver wire unless you're in 14+ teams, who's there? You're stacked enough at RB that they can carry but there should at least be some flexable folks there.

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=
Waddle will get his. it's frustrating but with that offense you have to roll with him.

(Maybe not over Jacobs vs GB)

Poque fucked around with this message at 18:08 on Oct 3, 2023

Docjowles
Apr 9, 2009

Anti-Hero posted:

This has me really evaluating my roster. I have a pretty good RB corps with CMC, King Henry, Conner, Rhamondre, White, Spears, Charb

My WRs? Higgins, Watson, Mike Williams (RIP and dropped) Jacobi Meyers, and then bench stashes

Sitting at 3-1 but I feel incredibly vulnerable and not certain CMC can lead me to promised land alone. Would you consider trying to trade CMC in my case?

I’m not fortunate enough to have CMC in any leagues this year but I am not sure I would trade him for anything. He is just obviously so much better than any other RB it’s insane. He literally is the kind of player who will lead you to the promised land. Last week he scored as many points as like the top 4 players on some of my teams combined.

And it wasn’t even some crazy outlier you can’t ever hope to see again. Dude can do that any given week.

Dango Bango
Jul 26, 2007

As a CMC owner in two of three leagues, I'm not trading him unless I get a 2-for-1 with two every week starters. In standard scoring he's 24 points over the next highest RB (yeah, that's Achane and Mostert split, but still...)

e: I just realized it was my CMC teams that lost this week so maybe take this with a grain of salt :v:

Dango Bango fucked around with this message at 18:24 on Oct 3, 2023

Dayvan Cowboy
Feb 11, 2014

Anti-Hero posted:

This has me really evaluating my roster. I have a pretty good RB corps with CMC, King Henry, Conner, Rhamondre, White, Spears, Charb

My WRs? Higgins, Watson, Mike Williams (RIP and dropped) Jacobi Meyers, and then bench stashes

Sitting at 3-1 but I feel incredibly vulnerable and not certain CMC can lead me to promised land alone. Would you consider trying to trade CMC in my case?

Definitely try to trade Henry first.

Fight Club Sandwich
Apr 29, 2006

you want a piece of me???
Been messing around in tableau. lmk if there's better metrics to visualize or any feedback re: clearer way to present this stuff

quote:

WR Matchups

Unpressured rate is % where the opposing QB was not hurried, hit, or sacked. Think of it as a proxy for quality pass attempt - you'd much rather start WRs against DEN than TEN even though enemy fantasy WR points are similar

RB Matchups

Color gradient is Tackle For Loss% - Fantasy RBs are scoring similarly against CLE and PHI but the data shows CLE are better at stuffing RBs behind the line while teams have been abandoning the run against PHI

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Fight Club Sandwich posted:

Been messing around in tableau. lmk if there's better metrics to visualize or any feedback re: clearer way to present this stuff

fun post. what’s your data source if someone wanted to try similar analysis?

Fight Club Sandwich
Apr 29, 2006

you want a piece of me???

pmchem posted:

fun post. what’s your data source if someone wanted to try similar analysis?

fantasy points allowed is 0.5 ppr and from https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/points-allowed.php, real football stuff is defensive stats from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/opp.htm

MakaVillian
Aug 16, 2003

Well, in Whoville they say - that his tiny hands grew three sizes that day.

Anti-Hero posted:

This has me really evaluating my roster. I have a pretty good RB corps with CMC, King Henry, Conner, Rhamondre, White, Spears, Charb

My WRs? Higgins, Watson, Mike Williams (RIP and dropped) Jacobi Meyers, and then bench stashes

Sitting at 3-1 but I feel incredibly vulnerable and not certain CMC can lead me to promised land alone. Would you consider trying to trade CMC in my case?

I would absolutely try to trade one of Henry or Rhamondre for a WR. Watson being WR1 is not a place I would like to be (I say this as a dynasty owner who's WR1 is Zay Flowers/Tyler Lockett).

Edit: Nice graphs FCS

Anti-Hero
Feb 26, 2004

MakaVillian posted:

I would absolutely try to trade one of Henry or Rhamondre for a WR. Watson being WR1 is not a place I would like to be (I say this as a dynasty owner who's WR1 is Zay Flowers/Tyler Lockett).

Edit: Nice graphs FCS

What tier of WR could I realistically target with those two?

edit:

Bellmaker posted:

WRs are usually aplenty on the waiver wire unless you're in 14+ teams, who's there? You're stacked enough at RB that they can carry but there should at least be some flexable folks there.

I just picked up Michael Wilson based on reddit hype in addition to the others mentioned.

Out on the wire, sorted by %rostered are:

D. Johnson (IR)
J. Dotson (drafted and dropped by me)
J. Palmer
B. Cooks
S. Moore
JJSS
Q. Johnston
J. Reynolds
R. Bateman
R. Rice
J. Williams (DET)
Zay Jones

Out of all of those Zay Jones looks like he could help if he comes back.

Anti-Hero fucked around with this message at 00:08 on Oct 4, 2023

ranbo das
Oct 16, 2013


Jameson williams seems like an obvious pickup, Detroit is humming and he could be really good.

He could implode, but he could be good!

Drunk Nerds
Jan 25, 2011

Just close your eyes
Fun Shoe

FAT32 SHAMER posted:

I built my fantasy team with a bunch of lions, including Goff as my primary QB. He’s been pretty good and consistently getting me high teens/low 20s in points, but just to be safe I am dropping Stafford as my backup and hopefully picking up Stroud from waivers

Hopefully Jamo pops off next week too

If your league has Stroud/Stafford in the FA pool, why roster a backup QB at all?

Anti-Hero
Feb 26, 2004

ranbo das posted:

Jameson williams seems like an obvious pickup, Detroit is humming and he could be really good.

He could implode, but he could be good!

I'm rostering both Musgrave and Henry so I think Musgrave is a drop for Williams?

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


someone who really needs a TE is offering me Puka Nacua for Laporta and Christian Watson. Up from his original offer of Aiyuk. He might also take Engram instead of Laporta (I have both). PPR. I’m inclined to say no but it’s at least making me think. If Kupp were out for the season I woulda probably countered with Engram/Watson already given full PPR.

I can maybe see if he’d take Palmer or Addison instead but the answer is probably no.

How you guys valuing TEs in trade for other positions these days?

FAT32 SHAMER
Aug 16, 2012



Drunk Nerds posted:

If your league has Stroud/Stafford in the FA pool, why roster a backup QB at all?

Mostly because idk what I’m doing :shobon:

This is my first league lol

Matt Zerella
Oct 7, 2002

Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)

pmchem posted:

someone who really needs a TE is offering me Puka Nacua for Laporta and Christian Watson. Up from his original offer of Aiyuk. He might also take Engram instead of Laporta (I have both). PPR. I’m inclined to say no but it’s at least making me think. If Kupp were out for the season I woulda probably countered with Engram/Watson already given full PPR.

I can maybe see if he’d take Palmer or Addison instead but the answer is probably no.

How you guys valuing TEs in trade for other positions these days?

You have 2 TEs and someone offered you Aiyuk, then upped to Puka and youre not smashing that? Or am I bad at reading?

Aiyuk alone is loving awesome, Puka would be incredible.

Drunk Nerds
Jan 25, 2011

Just close your eyes
Fun Shoe

FAT32 SHAMER posted:

Mostly because idk what I’m doing :shobon:

This is my first league lol

Well then I'm genuinely sorry for backup shaming you.

If you are content with Goff consider using the roster spot on a RB/WR lottery ticket, like a rookie who could pop off once they learn the system and adjust to the pros

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Matt Zerella posted:

You have 2 TEs and someone offered you Aiyuk, then upped to Puka and youre not smashing that? Or am I bad at reading?

Aiyuk alone is loving awesome, Puka would be incredible.

Well it’s not just for a TE, I have to add in Christian Watson who is great talent that’s finally healthy and scoring TDs.

Matt Zerella
Oct 7, 2002

Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)

pmchem posted:

Well it’s not just for a TE, I have to add in Christian Watson who is great talent that’s finally healthy and scoring TDs.

The best player in either deal is Puka/Aiyuk.

Chef Boyardeez Nuts
Sep 9, 2011

The more you kick against the pricks, the more you suffer.
I dropped Kyle Pitts two weeks ago in a 14 team league. He cleared waivers and has not been picked up yet.

Freezer
Apr 20, 2001

The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Chef Boyardeez Nuts posted:

I dropped Kyle Pitts two weeks ago in a 14 team league. He cleared waivers and has not been picked up yet.

Apparently Jonnu Smith is the falcons TE1. It’s insane but here we are.

vaginite
Feb 8, 2006

I'm comin' for you, colonel.



ranbo das posted:

Jameson williams seems like an obvious pickup, Detroit is humming and he could be really good.

He could implode, but he could be good!

I got Rashee Rice as my speculative WR and everyone else on my bench is solid - do you think Williams is a better prospect?

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Matt Zerella posted:

The best player in either deal is Puka/Aiyuk.

he accepted addison and laporta for aiyuk

Matt Zerella
Oct 7, 2002

Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)

pmchem posted:

he accepted addison and laporta for aiyuk

Congrats, you turned two mediocre guys into a stud!

Dango Bango
Jul 26, 2007

pmchem posted:

he accepted addison and laporta for aiyuk

Fuuuuck this is a robbery.

DoctaFun
Dec 12, 2005

Dammit Francis!
Fantasy football is super fun and cool.

I used my first three picks on WRs, thinking I’d have a dominant core. JJ has delivered, but Higgins and waddle have been …not good.

I didn’t draft a RB until my 4th pick and started the year with Walker, Mostert, and Kamara. Picked up Achane on waivers but didn’t play him last week.

Just going by total points though, I have by far the best RB group thus far in my whole league.

My WRs are mid to bottom tier so far.

Oh, and I’m 1-3 even though I’m 4th in PF. I’ve already given up 160 more points than the least scored against opponent in the league lol.

Obviously everything will change by the end of the season, but man this seems like a weird season. My WR first strategy could have been killer given all the big RB injuries, but I just picked the wrong guys so far.

take me you ANIMAL
Nov 28, 2002

Congrats big boy
Am I crazy picking cj stroud over Richardson, Wilson, or Purdy on waivers? He just seems like he's clicking right now and want to ride that wave until their bye week.

This is my no bench league, so trying to stack as many wins as I can before stocking up for playoffs.

Chernabog
Apr 16, 2007



I'd rather have AR if it is 4PATD

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

Richardson is my choice as well. The rushing upside is too good.

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DeadMansSuspenders
Jan 10, 2012

I wanna be your left hand man

Stroud good, Richardson would be my pick though. Even that week where he started bad he came back.

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