(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Are the new Patriot and Iris-T systems being delivered one at a time coming from the proverbial assembly line? Do we know from open sources?
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Oct 5, 2023 18:29
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Ynglaur posted:Are the new Patriot and Iris-T systems being delivered one at a time coming from the proverbial assembly line? Do we know from open sources? This particular article doesn't mention it, but I know from our IRIS-T that both systems came straight from assembly, as the test system delivered to the Bundeswehr wasn't ready yet anyway when the war started, so since then every new system and every new missile is supposed to go to Ukraine instead. Edit: I've found this German article from September, it talks about IRIS-T plans in a bit more detail: - Current plan is to fully integrate the first IRIS-T into the Bundeswehr by October 2024 - The Bundeswehr will get more systems, the plan is 6 full systems delivered by 2027 - The article describes this pace as "blindingly fast, for the Bundeswehr" - In Autumn 2023 a third IRIS-T will be delivered to Ukraine - The system has so far accumulated over 110 kills, mostly against Kalibr-missiles and Shahed-drones. - In Spring 2023 one IRIS-T killed a complete drone swarm of 13 Shaheds all at once - Thanks to Ukrainian air defense handling the system so well, the system near Kiev managed to achieve 100% accuracy - Diehl Defence has a hot line running to help Ukrainian forces, and the feedback from the Ukrainians is used to improve the system on the manufacturer's side - Due to the really one-sided massacre IRIS-T is causing among Russian missiles and drones, the manufacturer can't believe their luck: They claim basically everyone in the world wants to buy the things now. There's more, but it's about European defense in general, not Ukraine.
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Oct 5, 2023 18:47
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Libluini posted:So with this additional battery, Ukraine should have four full Patriots and two full Iris-T systems for defense in Winter. What kind of actual area coverage can these systems provide? Is it like 1 system per metropolis? Larger? Only 6 systems seems rather low.
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Oct 5, 2023 18:49
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https://twitter.com/AP/status/1709992559236284802?t=qseFZ91EqjA71ague3n-UA&s=19 I'm guessing this is building up to "the Ukrainians did it."
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Oct 5, 2023 19:03
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Dull Fork posted:What kind of actual area coverage can these systems provide? Is it like 1 system per metropolis? Larger? Only 6 systems seems rather low. I couldn't find out by searching, but by going to the Bundeswehr-website and Bundeswehr on Wikipedia, I reasoned out a possible answer: - Currently, the Bundeswehr has 14 Patriots and 3 Ozelots (Patriot Jr., but newer) - In theory, our 138 Eurofighter Typhoon and 84 Panavia Tornados could be used in an Anti-Air role, but there will never be a scenario where all the fighter-bombers of a nation sit around doing nothing but defense. Or even a majority. - The Bundeswehr will get 6 brand-new IRIS-T in the next few years to supplement our aging Patriots. So, in total, Germany considers 20 main systems, 3 small systems and a bunch of fighters adequate for defending all of Germany plus helping out NATO-partners in an emergency. In conclusion, even without looking up coverage for every single system, yes 6 (soon 7, see my last post), are definitely not enough. Of course, since every IRIS-T alone shoots down huge amounts of Russian stuff, the number of IRIS-T going up each year will probably make more and more problems for Russia. And that's only because Russia keeps its aircraft mostly out of range of Ukrainian launchers. The longer this conflict is going on, the more painful a lesson will the Russian Airforce have to pay if Putin ever loses patience and puts a very loyal but excessively stupid general in charge who goes all-in. A system capable of wiping out 13 small, nimble drones in one go will probably wipe out entire squadrons of Russian aircraft the same way, if the Russian Airforce ever gets that level of desperate. Edit: Added a source, and rewrote the first paragraph to make me look less stupid.  Edit 2: How the hell did I forget to add the number of Tornados? Libluini fucked around with this message at 19:49 on Oct 5, 2023 |
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Oct 5, 2023 19:08
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Moon Slayer posted:https://twitter.com/AP/status/1709992559236284802?t=qseFZ91EqjA71ague3n-UA&s=19 I'd be unironically fine if Ukraine did do it, the man was responsible for who knows how many warcrimes in Bakmut, and destroying the enemy's military leadership at any opportunity is a key part of combat. But really, investigation finds grenade fragments with "From Putin with Love" scribbled on them
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Oct 5, 2023 19:11
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I don't think Budanov could throw a grenade that far.
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Oct 5, 2023 19:13
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Paladinus posted:I don't think Budanov could throw a grenade that far. That's what the RC drone is for.
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Oct 5, 2023 19:23
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Slightly more seriously, the plane lost a wing and part of its tail. I guess if a grenade takes out the pilot, maybe the plane turns in a manner that breaks these pieces off... but the SAM solution still seems more likely. Or why not both. Putin hits his remote-grenade-under-the-seat button, isn't confident it did the job, so orders a SAM hit just to be sure.
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Oct 5, 2023 19:31
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The SAM hit caused the grenade in his luggage (very lucky dud, failed to explode!) to go off at the same time. Clearly, the fault here lies with NATO because
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Oct 5, 2023 19:39
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Libluini posted:- The system has so far accumulated over 110 kills, mostly against Kalibr-missiles and Shahed-drones.  That rules
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Oct 5, 2023 19:43
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Volmarias posted:The SAM hit caused the grenade in his luggage (very lucky dud, failed to explode!) to go off at the same time. Clearly, the fault here lies with NATO because Prigo also failed to grab a chute when he miraculously bailed out, but a Ukrainian sniper popped him twice in the back of the head on the way down anyways.
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Oct 5, 2023 19:44
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Snowman_McK posted:War on the Rocks had a guest recently who talked about this, pointing out just how many things has to consider on how many timeframes. It was both very interesting and also he sounded exactly like 90s era Joe Pesci. It was uncanny.
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Oct 5, 2023 19:48
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Dull Fork posted:What kind of actual area coverage can these systems provide? Is it like 1 system per metropolis? Larger? Only 6 systems seems rather low. The Patriot with the PAC-3 CRI missile has a range of at least 70 or so km.
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Oct 5, 2023 19:52
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Icon Of Sin posted:Prigo also failed to grab a chute when he miraculously bailed out, but a Ukrainian sniper popped him twice in the back of the head on the way down anyways. smh more Ukrainian war crimes
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Oct 5, 2023 20:06
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"German government officials are also said to have expressed concern that Taurus cruise missiles could be used to hit the Kerch Bridge." is a sentence that just blows my mind.
beer_war fucked around with this message at 20:36 on Oct 5, 2023 |
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Oct 5, 2023 20:08
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beer_war posted:"German government officials are also said to have expressed concern that Taurus cruise missiles could be used to hit the Kerch Bridge." is as sentence that just blows my mind.
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Oct 5, 2023 20:29
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Moon Slayer posted:I'm guessing this is building up to "the Ukrainians did it."
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Oct 5, 2023 21:00
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beer_war posted:"German government officials are also said to have expressed concern that Taurus cruise missiles could be used to hit the Kerch Bridge." is a sentence that just blows my mind. However, I do find it interesting that apparently the French and the British are explicitly setting the target coordinates of the various cruise missiles they provided. Has the Kerch bridge been hit by anything from Western delivery? Do they maybe also have the same fears? Or have they already shown that those fears are stupid?
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Oct 5, 2023 21:00
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I could see Prigozhin or his second in command just having a grenade on hand in their luggage. I don't know if a plane crash would set off a grenade but I could see a plane crash mixing grenade pieces with bodies. Depends how much work "fragments of a grenade" is doing.
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Oct 5, 2023 21:07
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One thing I don't understand is why putin feels the need to deny his actions. Like, you're powerful. You had him killed. You can just own it and say so. It doesn't even help you because the net effect is to create an atmosphere where nobody believes anything you say at all.
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Oct 5, 2023 21:11
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Xander77 posted:Per random Russian blogs, this is building up to "someone got drunk and coked up and started tossing grenades around". Oh Putin himself is tossing this one around it seems: https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1709984130207793279?s=20 I don't speak Russian, no subs on this one, there's a breakdown in the tweet thread but obviously I can't confirm it's accuracy. But if that's what he's saying then we've got a new fun version of the Putin defenestration: Just because we are the warcrime-ing heads of a PMC doesn't mean that we too can't not die in a freak coked-out grenade on a plane accident.
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Oct 5, 2023 21:14
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Glad they decided to go with the most ridiculous version, The MacgruberHieronymous Alloy posted:One thing I don't understand is why putin feels the need to deny his actions. Like, you're powerful. You had him killed. You can just own it and say so. Spook brain He hides his wife and child, denies the identities of his adult daughters, always goes with the complicated legend for every event and every decision because everything needs to be obscured - either because he enjoys it or because it is a pathology. fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 21:26 on Oct 5, 2023 |
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Oct 5, 2023 21:18
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:One thing I don't understand is why putin feels the need to deny his actions. Like, you're powerful. You had him killed. You can just own it and say so. Being able to lie shamelessly is also an exercise of power?
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Oct 5, 2023 21:23
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:One thing I don't understand is why putin feels the need to deny his actions. Like, you're powerful. You had him killed. You can just own it and say so. There's always someone dumb enough to believe the lies, or cynical enough to use them to further their own arguments. We don't believe Putin's obvious lies, but we're not the target audience.
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Oct 5, 2023 21:26
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OddObserver posted:Being able to lie shamelessly is also an exercise of power?
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Oct 5, 2023 21:31
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OddObserver posted:Being able to lie shamelessly is also an exercise of power? Yes, but such a shallow, shortsighted one. "I can lie and nobody punishes me for it" like a literal toddler's dream of what power is. Reminds me of Trump's vision of luxury dining as all the McDonald's you can eat. Just no vision of anything beyond the most tawdry, shallow power imaginable.
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Oct 5, 2023 21:32
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Xander77 posted:Per random Russian blogs, this is building up to "someone got drunk and coked up and started tossing grenades around". If we're to take the grenade explanation seriously (sounds pretty dumb to me) I expect it would be more like "someone got drunk and coked up and a argument ensued, which lead to someone pulling a grenade out as a threat, which due to the impairment of those involved did not go as they planned" (because moments later a missile struck the plane)
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Oct 5, 2023 21:35
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Outrageous, needless lies is both cause and effect of power abuse. The kind of person who does it and can't help but do it are also the kinds that will use any and all methods to gain power, and lying happens to be sadly a historically good way to do that. And then yes, for someone like Putin who knows the game he's playing, continuing the disinformation on all fronts at all times both helps cement power, create apathy, and is a power move that the sycophants adore. Notice how much of an overlap there is with Putin and Trump here. Trump didn't buy Putin's playbook, he's been playing it all his life, but he sure loved it when Putin came along singing the same tune. Hopefully we'll know someday just how much of a collaboration effort it's been between the 2, but any level would not surprise me.
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Oct 5, 2023 21:36
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Yes, but such a shallow, shortsighted one. "I can lie and nobody punishes me for it" like a literal toddler's dream of what power is. This is why he enjoyed company of Trump and Berlusconi - also brazen liars that he probably envied because they could show luxury in public but he is commited to hiding even personal wealth.
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Oct 5, 2023 21:36
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Orthanc6 posted:Oh Putin himself is tossing this one around it seems: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFYuhMAy7j0 /sarcasm DTurtle fucked around with this message at 22:35 on Oct 5, 2023 |
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Oct 5, 2023 22:04
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Yes, but such a shallow, shortsighted one. "I can lie and nobody punishes me for it" like a literal toddler's dream of what power is. Donald Trump was elected President of the United States, and Putin is the longstanding ruler of Russia. There are a lot of people who will follow the shallow power that embracing lies offers.
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Oct 5, 2023 22:27
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Thanks for the many answers on podcasts and books, thread. I remember when sections of the internet went absolutely wild over Putin bringing a big dog for a meeting with a world leader who was afraid of dogs (possibly Merkel) when it's such a little kids idea of a power move. There's that saying that power doesn't corrupt, it reveals and it turns out a lot of people who seek out dictatorial power are kind of developmentally stunted.
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Oct 5, 2023 22:34
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It was Merkel yeah.
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Oct 5, 2023 22:36
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Being about to parrot incredibly obvious lies is a key part of totalitarianism. My family still has a book dedicated to the Ceaucescus attributing various inventions to them, incredible scholarly abilities etc. not too far off from North Korean style propaganda. How can you rebel against something capable of warping your reality so vividly?
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Oct 5, 2023 22:55
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Yes, but such a shallow, shortsighted one. "I can lie and nobody punishes me for it" like a literal toddler's dream of what power is. It's more nuanced than that. As defined by Harry Frankfurt they're not lies, they're bullshit. A liar cares enough about the truth to hide it, the bullshitter doesn't give a drat. Bent Flyvbjerg originally wrote on this in the context of urban planning, but the principle applies here as well: quote:Proposition 1: Power defines reality The "firehouse of falsehoods" tactic employed by the Kremlin is so effective because you can't debate an opponent who has no commitment to objective reality. There are also few greater displays of power than having everyone go along with obvious bullshit.
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Oct 5, 2023 23:09
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Koos Group posted:You are currently threadbanned and will need to appeal that with me if you wish to post. There's plenty wrong in that post, though. Neurolimal's gimmick was trying to make the case that if Slavs are not reigned in by Russia, then they'll want to go to Nazism, so the world needs to accept that Russia needs to keep those Nazi-prone Slavs in line. Neuro even made the claims that "Poland" built death camps and "Poland" is engaging in revisionism in some pretty sweeping blanket statements. It parallels in some way Bush's War on Terror, where Muslims were painted as Terrorists by default, and that any opposition to the US meant wholesale support of terrorism. It's really not all that different from Russia saying they need to "denazify" (much like "deradicalize") every country that slipped from their sphere of influence in the past ~100 years, implying that anyone who opposes Russia's war is a Nazi sympathizer. Pennsylvanian fucked around with this message at 23:19 on Oct 5, 2023 |
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Oct 5, 2023 23:10
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Isn't the whole governing style in Russia to lie, deny, and flood the airwaves with misinformation so much that people just give up on even trying to get politically involved?
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Oct 5, 2023 23:21
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:One thing I don't understand is why putin feels the need to deny his actions. Like, you're powerful. You had him killed. You can just own it and say so. Orthanc6 posted:Oh Putin himself is tossing this one around it seems:  "Edit - wow. loving beaten like a dead horse. Xander77 fucked around with this message at 23:29 on Oct 5, 2023 |
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Oct 5, 2023 23:24
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https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1710066489242386863 Surprised something like this hasn't happened more often. Or maybe it has and I just never heard about it because it's expected now.
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Oct 6, 2023 00:00
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