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adebisi lives posted:Lol Azerbaijani territory. Remind me, whose territory is the Golan heights and Northern Cyprus? The Golan Heights belongs to Syria. Northern Cyprus to Cyprus. Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan. Is how the rest of the world sees it. Trump I think recognized the Golan as being Israeli but I don't know if that stands. That's the only country I can think of that recognizes any of these breakaway regions aside from the occupiers. This isn't to justify ethnic cleansing, which is the obvious purpose of Azerbaijan's operation there. But the territory is certainly theirs.
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Sep 28, 2023 13:30
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Regardless of who's controlling the region, it'd be really swell if people could live there unharmed regardless of ethnicity but that seems to be a cuckoo crazy outlandish idea right?
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Sep 28, 2023 14:22
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Saladman posted:A lot of the territory that the Artsakh government controlled was very recently ethnically cleansed of Azeris who made up the vast majority of the population for at least the last 100 years, like Shusha and Agdam. So unless you know where that road sign is, hard to say. If it’s in like central Stepanakert that’s pretty bad. It’s the same here, except it’s only 30 years ago so (at least for me) the Azeris are even more in their right than would be Greeks in Northern Cyprus. I don’t feel this way about the current exodus, only for the territory liberated by Azerbaijanin 2020, btw. This looks a lot more like conquest than liberation. This is basically my initial take. The ethnic cleansing is obviously horrible, but it’s somewhat frustrating that the mainstream media in the West ignores how Armenians did the exact same to Azeris in the 1990s. They didn’t just secure NK back then. They occupied the surrounding areas and ejected the Azeris from regions that were majority Azeri. Imagine if the Palestinians suddenly had futuristic technology crippling the Israeli occupation and allowing them to rapidly realize their territorial ambitions. Obviously, they would likely not stop with simply reclaiming the territories in West Bank that are majority Palestinian and would aim for the entirety of the West Bank (which is internationally recognized as illegally occupied). Many Israeli Jews would rather flee than to be a minority in a state controlled by Arabs. It would be immensely upsetting if the media purely focused on the Israeli plight without giving any historical context. Can someone please correct me if my analogy is wrong?
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Sep 28, 2023 15:36
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The problem with your analogy is suggesting the media would even consider another course of action 
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Sep 28, 2023 16:16
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Yes, it's like a lava lamp.
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Are Azeris being ethnically cleansed right now? The news usually focuses on events happening currently or recently
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Sep 28, 2023 16:27
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Nothing will ever make the mutual ethnic cleansing of the 1990s okay. It made peaceful coexistence impossible when just years before it was taken for granted The only hope was a diplomatic solution. Aliyev completely ignored that and decided to invade, making any hope of coexistence impossible. FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 16:30 on Sep 28, 2023 |
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Sep 28, 2023 16:28
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^^^ Indeed, but Armenia had abandoned the Madrid principles in the last 5 years or so and Russia was pretty pissed off about that. That was a pretty big snub to the peace process and the Contact Group. Obviously none of that justifies any ethnic cleansing, I am just saying that Armenia had some insanely cocky moves in the recent past. And what happened in the 90's made a solution almost impossible, ofc.
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Sep 28, 2023 17:14
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There was an independence referendum held in 1991 where the vast majority of the Armenian population voted to cede - had the Azeris not boycotted it it still would have won and overwhelmingly so. Then hostilities broke out when Azerbaijan rejected the outcome. It came in the wake of several violent anti-Armenian pogroms from 1988-1991. Unsurprisingly, freedom and the D&D democracy lovers and NAFO dipshits are now carrying water for Aliyev, because they can use it as a cudgel to beat Russia with. Just great stuff. And yeah it is ethnic cleansing. He won’t stop there, he’s already talking about creating a land bridge to that exclave. I expect another attack in a few years or maybe less. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 29, 2023 00:09
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It has certain parallels with the South Ossetia independence drive but at least those guys were successful (The South Ossetians held and independence referendum- it passed with like a 95% yes and then Suckassvilli rejected it. It came in the wake of Georgians being openly genocidal.)
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Sep 29, 2023 00:13
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Frond posted:There was an independence referendum held in 1991 where the vast majority of the Armenian population voted to cede - had the Azeris not boycotted it it still would have won and overwhelmingly so. Then hostilities broke out when Azerbaijan rejected the outcome. Yeah, remember how Catalonia had a banned and partly-boycotted independence vote crushed a few years ago, so afterwards they took up arms, murdered a few thousand Castilians, and forcibly drove out the rest by gunpoint? Democracies can do terrible things too, see: America, the UK, France. Autocratic countries can be ok, see: Singapore. Democratic votes with 95% vote in favor can also be bad decisions. In a fight of a democratic country vs an autocratic one, it’s not automatically the democracy that is morally correct. I do think the Azeris were 95%+ morally justifiable for the 2020 war. In this one, the Azeris will probably be 100% morally wrong, but I guess at this point we can only wait and see what happens with the Armenians who do stay to see how it turns out. It’s also possible they will be such a tiny and demoralized minority that Azerbaijan won’t bother with anything worse than mandating Azeri language classes in schools. As absolute best case scenario; I imagine it will be worse but no one except Azerbaijan can do anything about it now, unless it gets into actual pogram style ethnic cleansing.
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Sep 29, 2023 08:27
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No Armenians will be left in the country by the end of the year. Why would they stay there? Azerbaijan is a decaying petrostate and it’s somehow even poorer than Armenia is despite sitting on a literal ocean of oil (all of their platforms are sinking into the Caspian Sea too, perhaps they can fix that now.) There are a few remaining Armenians in Azerbaijan itself - they conceal their identities to avoid persecution. No, there is no future for them in Azerbaijan. Stop being a loving child.
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Sep 29, 2023 14:16
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It's a real shame that no country had peacekeepers posted in the region, to prevent exactly this from happening
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Sep 29, 2023 14:26
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Frond posted:Azerbaijan is a decaying petrostate and it’s somehow even poorer than Armenia what happened in 2015 where (according to google) azeri gpd was cut by fully half?  if it's oil-related, seems weird that they were much more insulated from shocks in 2020
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Sep 29, 2023 14:39
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i say swears online posted:what happened in 2015 where (according to google) azeri gpd was cut by fully half? Oil price fell, I believe. https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart Edit- I'm far from well read on this subject, but they probably diversified their economy more after the mid 10s. ummel fucked around with this message at 17:45 on Sep 29, 2023 |
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Sep 29, 2023 14:44
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Frond posted:No Armenians will be left in the country by the end of the year. Why would they stay there? Azerbaijan is a decaying petrostate and it’s somehow even poorer than Armenia is despite sitting on a literal ocean of oil (all of their platforms are sinking into the Caspian Sea too, perhaps they can fix that now.) Per capita they look pretty similar. Azerbaijan's GDP is about 5 times larger, but then so is its population.
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Sep 29, 2023 15:15
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I'm curious how that looks if you take out the oil wealth; my assumption had been they were roughly equal in terms of gdp per capita but Azerbaijan was bigger and had oil, so had spent the last decade building up its military for Round N+1. But if they're equivalent gdp per capita even with oil...
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Sep 29, 2023 16:39
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Irony Be My Shield posted:It's a real shame that no country had peacekeepers posted in the region, to prevent exactly this from happening i don't think literally anyone has claimed itt that russia's come out of this affair looking good. i am of the opinion that russia being a bad ally of armenia doesn't mean that We (as in, the greater West) should be friends to azerbaijan as they do a bad thing, even though it's mainly russia's responsibility to prevent it as the treaty ally of the people being subjected to the bad thing, especially as those people have been openly flirting with Us. there not even being talk of a security council resolution about an arms embargo or something really is quite shameful for everyone involved, not just russia. Morrow posted:I'm curious how that looks if you take out the oil wealth; my assumption had been they were roughly equal in terms of gdp per capita but Azerbaijan was bigger and had oil, so had spent the last decade building up its military for Round N+1. But if they're equivalent gdp per capita even with oil... large-scale petroleum production completely warps any economy and it doesn't really make sense to "take it out".
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Sep 30, 2023 12:58
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Frond posted:No Armenians will be left in the country by the end of the year. Why would they stay there? Azerbaijan is a decaying petrostate and it’s somehow even poorer than Armenia is despite sitting on a literal ocean of oil (all of their platforms are sinking into the Caspian Sea too, perhaps they can fix that now.) There is no future for them in Azerbaijan because at this moment the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh seemingly don't want a future in Azerbaijan, hence they are leaving Azerbaijan. I think it's perfectly understandable for them to feel the need to flee in fear. Both groups committed a litany of war crimes neither side wants to own up. Nagorno-Karabh's 30 years of globally unrecognized independence for its ~100k citizens came at the cost of displacing ~600k Azeris. It would be pretty easy to imagine that the returning Azeris to the surrounding areas would be understatedly pissed and that Armenians there would act both on that imagination and what they experienced in the past. Take it as you will, the Azerbaijan is on record at the moment saying that have no intention to oust the citizens of Karabakh, but rather the opposite. Armenia's Prime Minister in the immediate aftermath of the one-day war that saw the end of Nagorno-Karabakh's rule stated that they saw no threat to the Armenia population there. BBC reporting on the ground with Armenian refugees does not indicate atrocities or maltreatment of the local Armenians. UNHCR observers on the ground are saying they have no instances of mistreatment against those Armenians leaving. Azerbaijan has stated they have no desire to see the Armenian citizens leave and that ostensibly those that left are permitted to return. How that would happen is completely unclear. Azerbaijan has to walk the walk for any Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh that want to hang back or return and test the Azeri's word. Hopefully the rhetoric that Azeris will move in and murder every Armenian that they can get their hands upon and then invade Armenian proper does not come to pass and dies out. Hopefully Armenia and Azerbaijan can ink a peace deal soon and move forward peacefully and productively.
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Oct 1, 2023 15:01
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Rip Testes posted:BBC reporting on the ground with Armenian refugees does not indicate atrocities or maltreatment of the local Armenians. I agree with what you wrote, but where are you seeing this? The only BBC reporter I saw was reporting from a hill near Shusha like 10 km away from Stepanakert, and did not get inside any part of the territory controlled in 2021-Aug 2023 by the Artsakh government. I looked all over and all I see is a press release a couple days ago with the Artsakh government formally dissolving as of 1 January 2024, and a Reuters article saying more than 100k Armenians have fled ( https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/more-than-100000-refugees-arrive-armenia-exodus-swells-2023-09-30/ ) out of a population of around 110k (July 2021 numbers). I guess they don't really need to bother much with atrocities or overt maltreatment if literally everyone under the age of 70 has fled before the Azeri soldiers even arrive in the first place. E: Al Jazeera on the ground reporting from a few minutes ago which I hadn't seen earlier today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axdKnZ4sYhA and later in the video with a Red Cross official, also on the ground around 15 min in, says probably "a few hundred people [are] left" in Stepanakert, out of 55,000 living there before. Summary of the reporting: everyone left in a huge rush, for the few who stayed, electricity and water and emergency services (ambulances, at least) are still working. Seemingly no presence of Azeri troops in Stepanakert itself; I'm sure they're outside and around, but the city seems just completely empty. No damage, no looting, just empty. UN missions and Red Cross are there too, just no reporters. Sounds like other reporters may be getting access now too. He also mentions that many of the Armenians he did see are still packing up to leave, so that 100,500 out of 110,000 who have already left will probably increase even further, leaving only some of the elderly, infirm, and exceptionally curmudgeonly. Saladman fucked around with this message at 21:14 on Oct 1, 2023 |
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Oct 1, 2023 20:53
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Rip Testes posted:There is no future for them in Azerbaijan because at this moment the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh seemingly don't want a future in Azerbaijan, hence they are leaving Azerbaijan. I think it's perfectly understandable for them to feel the need to flee in fear. Both groups committed a litany of war crimes neither side wants to own up. Nagorno-Karabh's 30 years of globally unrecognized independence for its ~100k citizens came at the cost of displacing ~600k Azeris. It would be pretty easy to imagine that the returning Azeris to the surrounding areas would be understatedly pissed and that Armenians there would act both on that imagination and what they experienced in the past. quote:Take it as you will, the Azerbaijan is on record at the moment saying that have no intention to oust the citizens of Karabakh, but rather the opposite. And massive lobbying funded by Caspian oil money: https://crudeaccountability.org/azerbaijan-spends-unprecedented-resources-on-lobbying/ They inspired this term: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caviar_diplomacy Sadly, Armenia does not have access to billions in oil reserves. quote:Armenia's Prime Minister in the immediate aftermath of the one-day war that saw the end of Nagorno-Karabakh's rule stated that they saw no threat to the Armenia population there. BBC reporting on the ground with Armenian refugees does not indicate atrocities or maltreatment of the local Armenians. UNHCR observers on the ground are saying they have no instances of mistreatment against those Armenians leaving. Azerbaijan has stated they have no desire to see the Armenian citizens leave and that ostensibly those that left are permitted to return. How that would happen is completely unclear. Azerbaijan has to walk the walk for any Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh that want to hang back or return and test the Azeri's word. Let's not forget this gem: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramil_Safarov I guess the bombing campaign targeting civilians up to this point was fine, as well as a the blockade of the Lachin Corridor to starve the entire Artsakh region of supplies? quote:Hopefully the rhetoric that Azeris will move in and murder every Armenian that they can get their hands upon and then invade Armenian proper does not come to pass and dies out. Hopefully Armenia and Azerbaijan can ink a peace deal soon and move forward peacefully and productively. i fly airplanes fucked around with this message at 21:56 on Oct 1, 2023 |
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Oct 1, 2023 21:49
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Saladman posted:I agree with what you wrote, but where are you seeing this? The only BBC reporter I saw was reporting from a hill near Shusha like 10 km away from Stepanakert, and did not get inside any part of the territory controlled in 2021-Aug 2023 by the Artsakh government. I heard the BBC report a few days ago during a Newshour broadcast. I unfortunately do not have a link. A couple of days back, the UNHCR Representative in Armenia, Kavita Belani responded to inquiries regarding what their witnesses are seeing with regards to Armenian refugees during their press briefing: quote:Ms. Belani said that the UNHCR viewed this as a refugee situation and could not comment on whether it constituted ethnic cleansing. Ms. Belani, who had been on ground from day one, shared stories of families arriving from Nagorno-Karabakh. People were tired, after having suffered under blockade for nine months. They wanted answers on what would happen next. Many were worried about the education of their children and wanted to know whether they would be able to return home to collect their belongings. It was difficult to know how many people would come in total, she said, as the situation was constantly evolving. There were no recorded incidents or cases of mistreatment against people on the move, said Ms. Belani.
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Oct 2, 2023 01:35
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i fly airplanes posted:Your post reeks of both sidesism and misinformation. The first Karabakh war displaced thousands on both sides, and it's not a 1:6 ratio in favor of Armenians. While Azerbaijan lost that war, there was major displacement on both sides. Well, there are two sides and they have both performed atrocious acts. Amnesty International reports on a couple of examples. A de-escalation in rhetoric is a really necessary thing here and it's good to see it occurring from the Azerbaijani side, but the Azerbaijani side is going to have to back its message up. I find this hour plus long video exchange yesterday between an Armenian and Azerbaijani journalist provides some unique and immediate perspectives.
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Oct 2, 2023 03:56
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Rip Testes posted:Well, there are two sides and they have both performed atrocious acts. Amnesty International reports on a couple of examples. Lmao. They are still firing into Armenia proper. 80%+ of the population has fled. Clearly they don’t feel the same way about Azerbaijan. Pashinyan is a stooge and widely hated. He’s finished. Who cares what that idiot has to say at this point. The constructive peace or whatever Baku and Istanbul are pushing is Armenia giving up more of it’s territory to link the Nakhchivan (which, like Azerbaijan proper, was cleansed of all it’s Armenians long ago.)
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Oct 3, 2023 01:21
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Rip Testes posted:Well, there are two sides and they have both performed atrocious acts. Amnesty International reports on a couple of examples. You linked Amnesty International, which has a history of bothsidings a conflict, notably Ukraine: https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/28/amnesty-international-leaked-review-ukraine-report-legally-questionable https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-amnesty-international-government-and-politics-e9482158389c875882b660bfb3294bab To say that Armenia is as atrocious and commited the same war crimes as Azerbaijan is a huge false equivalence. They're not the ones running theme parks about Armenians and glorifying war.
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Oct 3, 2023 01:29
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i fly airplanes posted:.They're not the ones running theme parks about Armenians and glorifying war. Unless you are German or from like, Monaco, there is a 100% probability that your country has a military history museum that glorifies its past wars and has trophies of its enemies on display, probably also with wax or plastic mannequins of them. Armenia too, like every other country, has a prominent museum in its Mother Armenia park glorifying its liberation of Shusha, where it ethnically cleansed 90% of the local population within living memory of every poster on SA. I don’t know if it has helmets from dead Azeris, but besides those (which were removed) the Azeri museum seems pretty much the same as the ones you see in every country that isn’t Germany.
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Oct 3, 2023 07:41
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Now that Aliyev has what he wants will the Azeris leave Armenian territory (No.)
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Oct 3, 2023 09:23
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Also there are maybe 1000 Armenians left in the territory now. I guess they rejected the “Integration” offer (the Integration was into jail or into a grave.)
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Oct 3, 2023 09:24
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Aliyev's already working on his casus belli to seize territory from Armenia proper. https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1711020124411457741
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Oct 8, 2023 15:22
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Edit: disregard, old news
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Oct 9, 2023 02:48
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All out war going down in Israel.
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Oct 9, 2023 04:02
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Wrong thread, this is the ME except for I-P thread.
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Oct 9, 2023 05:20
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Xerxes17 posted:Wrong thread, this is the ME except for I-P thread. It is, and us thread veterans know this, but it might be good to have a note about this somewhere in the OP?
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Oct 10, 2023 12:21
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Xerxes17 posted:Wrong thread, this is the ME except for I-P thread. *The Greater Middle East including Azerbaijan and Armenia
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Oct 10, 2023 17:07
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mawarannahr posted:*The Greater Middle East including Azerbaijan and Armenia We draw the line at Georgia (not the state)!!
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Oct 10, 2023 18:31
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The Crimean war was also known as the oriental war, and it's less than 300 years ago that the khanate fell from the Ottoman sphere to Russian control. Sevastopol is in Middle East.
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Oct 10, 2023 18:43
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I honestly wish there was a thread for news about the I/P situation because the thread we have now is an absolute cesspool of war crime denialism and war crime support for both sides. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Oct 10, 2023 18:57
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Charliegrs posted:I honestly wish there was a thread for news about the I/P situation because the thread we have now is an absolute cesspool of war crime denialism and war crime support for both sides.  but further on one that has a focus on recognizing misinformation, bad journalism and blatant propaganda. There's so much "news" especially on Twitter and other social media from dubious sources, meanwhile big media outlets are running in circles reporting on things that we already know, that it feels useless to follow any of them. Which is probably good for sanity anyway...
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Oct 10, 2023 19:12
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Much like the Ukraine war it starts out hot and will eventually summer down to a more steady stream of atrocities. I think a question worth asking is: how badly do we need up to the minute information?
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Oct 10, 2023 19:15
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Count Roland posted:Much like the Ukraine war it starts out hot and will eventually summer down to a more steady stream of atrocities. I don't know if it's a matter of need but I'm sure plenty of us would be interested in a steady stream of info on a major news story the same way we are interested in any other major story like the Ukraine war, or the situation in Nagorno Karabahk.
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Oct 10, 2023 19:41
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Charliegrs posted:I don't know if it's a matter of need but I'm sure plenty of us would be interested in a steady stream of info on a major news story the same way we are interested in any other major story like the Ukraine war, or the situation in Nagorno Karabahk. I mean, yes, I too am interested, as I am in the other conflicts. What I was trying to say was that hunting down the latest of latest news leads one to more dubious sources, things that haven't been corroborated yet. It exposes one to propaganda and nonsense at a higher rate. If instead we settle with info that's a few hours old we've already increased the odds it's true.
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Oct 10, 2023 19:47
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