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Civilized Fishbot
Apr 3, 2011

Fister Roboto posted:

No fight for liberation is ever going to be "clean". Oppression and subjugation literally dehumanizes people - it turns them into animals who have no choice but to lash out violently at the first opportunity they find.

Palestinians aren't animals, they're human beings.

If you're calling Palestinians animals, you need to back up and rethink how you got here.

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ImpAtom
May 24, 2007

fool of sound posted:

So my speculation about your response to slave revolts and resistance to apartheid were entirely accurate then.

It's not really so much a carte blanche justification so much as an understanding that liberation movements will do terrible things sometimes due to a lack of time, capability, and/or organization, and it's not a reason to denounce their cause or methods.

I don't agree that cause and methods are inexorably tied together. You can support a cause and still denounce its methods. You can even, such as in this situation, support and denounce different aspects of their methods in the same situation. The idea that you have to accept everything done under a justifiable and right cause or else you're harming the cause doesn't hold weight. It just becomes a way to prevent having to deal with the moral pain that comes from acknowledging a cause you support did something awful.

Israel is in the wrong, continues to be in the wrong, brought all of this upon themselves, and the acts they are committing in response are absolutely unjustified, cruel and malicious on a level that dwarfs the actions they are responding to. That doesn't mean those ALL of those actions were themselves justified or excusable or should be written off as "well you know it happens." I am willing to acknowledge the side I support and think is justified in response also took actions I don't feel are justified or excusable and even if I can acknowledge the history and reasons behind them that doesn't change the fact they are foul and disgusting actions nor does it change the fact that the cause still has value.

The crimes of war should never be excused and never be lauded, forgiven or justified. They are the crimes of war, even if done by the side that is in the right and it ends with a good outcome.

It is also very fair to say that this applies far more loving heavily to the whole 'we're going to strip water and electricity from an entire imprisoned group of people' thing and anyone trying to justify that as anything but an atrocity (and I would say easily a worse one) needs to think very hard about what they're saying. No amount of anger (regardless of if you personally find it justified) excuses that and it should be treated at minimum on the same level of horror as the rave shootings and very likely worse, especially considering that doesn't even touch on the massive campaign of indiscriminate violence it is going hand-in-hand with.


Fister Roboto posted:

No fight for liberation is ever going to be "clean". Oppression and subjugation literally dehumanizes people - it turns them into animals who have no choice but to lash out violently at the first opportunity they find.

No. Human beings are not animals. They do not 'become' animals when oppressed. That is the same language used by someone like Marco Rubio to justify why Israel's response is acceptable, because their opponents are 'animals.' Those traumatized by oppression are still human beings. To say otherwise lends weight to the idea that they can't be reasoned with, can't be rational, that they are dangerous and the only response is violent action. A fight for freedom is never going to be clean but at the end of the day many of those people want freedom and the violence is an unavoidable and necessary step towards getting that freedom, but that doesn't mean they would respond to every situation with violence.

ImpAtom fucked around with this message at 18:15 on Oct 10, 2023

WarpedLichen
Aug 14, 2008


If I'm to break down the argument I'm hearing:

1. Hamas did some bad things
2. But Israel did worse things
3. So is on balance the stuff Hamas has done all that bad?

It feels very pointless to have this back and forth about what is essentially vibes. I definitely think you should reexamine your values if you feel like this is a point that is at all worth making.

I agree with the notion that it is on Israel to end the cycle of violence, but the conversation surrounding it is beyond tedious.

Lampsacus
Oct 21, 2008

fool of sound posted:

Sexual assault is a consequence of war, not a tactic.
Yeah I'm not going to get drawn into a semantic internet argument with a rape apologist, sorry. Good luck with your future posting career which, judging by you rap sheet, justifying and defending rape is just another day on the internet for you.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Canned Sunshine
Nov 20, 2005

CAUTION: POST QUALITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION



Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Yes, you cracked it. Both of those are very bad things!

So then why are you focusing exclusively on Hamas’ actions and effectively not discussing the indiscriminate crimes against humanity being committed by the IDF?

Because right now, you’re coming off as having a pretty significant pro-Israel bias that then brings into questions any of the opinions you are providing.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

mila kunis posted:

Whoa, source?

It's been posted in this thread earlier. There are also extremely bad pictures online. You can probably find them by searching the Kibbutz name, but I am not going to post them.

https://twitter.com/i24NEWS_EN/status/1711697093151056355
https://twitter.com/i24NEWS_EN/status/1711718195025821976
https://twitter.com/Alicia_Smith19/status/1711780299305005174
https://twitter.com/EylonALevy/status/1711785938345467932

SourKraut posted:

So then why are you focusing exclusively on Hamas’ actions and effectively not discussing the indiscriminate crimes against humanity being committed by the IDF?

Because right now, you’re coming off as having a pretty significant pro-Israel bias that then brings into questions any of the opinions you are providing.

Because everyone agrees that the Israeli actions are bad, but nobody is arguing that actually Israel killing children is good because Hamas murdered children!

"Murdering babies is bad" being processed as "Pro-Israel bias" in your mind is a weird thing and should probably cause you to at least reassess some of your priors!

mila kunis posted:

Does someone have credible evidence that Hamas is going around decapitating babies en masse? All I can find boils down to some hack reporter saying 'the IDF says so'. Meanwhile there's clear visual evidence of the Israelis murdering Palestinian children in terror bombing right now.

I don't know if 40 counts as en masse. But, there have been at least 40 total between two different Kibbutz.

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 18:23 on Oct 10, 2023

mila kunis
Jun 10, 2011
Does someone have credible evidence that Hamas is going around decapitating babies en masse? All I can find boils down to some hack reporter saying 'the IDF says so'. Meanwhile there's clear visual evidence of the Israelis murdering Palestinian children in terror bombing right now.

mannerup
Jan 11, 2004

♬ I Know You're Dying Trying To Figure Me Out♬

♬My Name's On The Tip Of Your Tongue Keep Running Your Mouth♬

♬You Want The Recipe But Can't Handle My Sound My Sound My Sound♬

♬No Matter What You Do Im Gonna Get It Without Ya♬

♬ I Know You Ain't Used To A Female Alpha♬
.

mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:15 on Nov 5, 2023

Bholder
Feb 26, 2013

Absolute hot take here: Hamas is bad.
Now that I established my moral superiority, I can say that morality debate is the worst circlejerk imaginable.

It does not matter who committed the worse warcrimes, not like either side is going to appear in a international court and pointing fingers how the other side is worse is just an excuse.

Violence begets violence and the question is how it started, how Hamas is part of this at all and how it can be prevented preferably by the people in positions of power, not the collection of fanatics who we want to educate how to coordinate their tactics better so it is more appealing to international media.

Bholder fucked around with this message at 18:23 on Oct 10, 2023

Civilized Fishbot
Apr 3, 2011

SourKraut posted:

So then why are you focusing exclusively on Hamas’ actions and effectively not discussing the indiscriminate crimes against humanity being committed by the IDF?

Disagreement creates discussion, agreement doesn't. The users here disagree about how think about Hamas' war crimes, so there's discussion to be had. We all agree Israeli war crimes are evil and that the international community has an obligation to.make them stop, so what's there to discuss?

quote:

brings into questions any of the opinions you are providing.

All opinions are questionable, that's what makes them opinions and not facts.

fool of sound
Oct 10, 2012

This calculus comes from and ends up in the right place, but nevertheless results in adding the the chorus of moral cover being provided to Israel. In a theoretical conflict where there is closer parity between the oppressor and oppressed, I think that this is a fine way of thinking about things. Here, where Israel's intensely violent oppression is taken as normal and expected, while every rocket fired into Israel is international news and the culture surrounding the conflict is such that merely vocalizing support for palestine can get you into professional or legal trouble across the west? The moral calculus is so imbalanced as to fail outright.

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Because everyone agrees that the Israeli actions are bad, but nobody is arguing that actually Israel killing children is good because Hamas murdered children!

Leaders all over the world are arguing that thing by word and deed, actually. This is some "well, all lives matter!" bullshit. The suffering of the Palestinian people has been ignored both presently and historically by the rest of the world. CNN crews aren't in the hospitals in Gaza documenting the wonderful fruits of the Free World's passion for statecraft and peacemaking, they're hand in hand with the IDF and it's vile.

Fister Roboto
Feb 21, 2008

Civilized Fishbot posted:

Palestinians aren't animals, they're human beings.

If you're calling Palestinians animals, you need to back up and rethink how you got here.


ImpAtom posted:

No. Human beings are not animals. They do not 'become' animals when oppressed. That is the same language used by someone like Marco Rubio to justify why Israel's response is acceptable, because their opponents are 'animals.' Those traumatized by oppression are still human beings. To say otherwise lends weight to the idea that they can't be reasoned with, can't be rational, that they are dangerous and the only response is violent action. A fight for freedom is never going to be clean but at the end of the day many of those people want freedom and the violence is an unavoidable and necessary step towards getting that freedom, but that doesn't mean they would respond to every situation with violence.

A poor choice of words on my part, but I stand by my overall point. The occupation has turned this into a fight for survival, and you can't expect people to fight cleanly for their own survival.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

PT6A posted:

Leaders all over the world are arguing that thing by word and deed, actually. This is some "well, all lives matter!" bullshit. The suffering of the Palestinian people has been ignored both presently and historically by the rest of the world. CNN crews aren't in the hospitals in Gaza documenting the wonderful fruits of the Free World's passion for statecraft and peacemaking, they're hand in hand with the IDF and it's vile.

When those world leaders post in this thread, we should argue with them about it!

Also, this is another situation where you are substituting vibes for facts. I have to give credit to CNN because they do have multiple teams full-time in Gaza reporting right now and Fareed Zakaria has had multiple Palestinian representatives and pro-Palestinian voices on his show during coverage to comment and give context. They are also grilling Israeli representatives and Hamas spokespeople about the disregard for civilian lives.

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 18:33 on Oct 10, 2023

fool of sound
Oct 10, 2012

fool of sound posted:

This calculus comes from and ends up in the right place, but nevertheless results in adding the the chorus of moral cover being provided to Israel. In a theoretical conflict where there is closer parity between the oppressor and oppressed, I think that this is a fine way of thinking about things. Here, where Israel's intensely violent oppression is taken as normal and expected, while every rocket fired into Israel is international news and the culture surrounding the conflict is such that merely vocalizing support for palestine can get you into professional or legal trouble across the west? The moral calculus is so imbalanced as to fail outright.

To expand on this, let me compare it to the invasion of Ukraine. I acknowledge that both Russia and Ukraine have committed war crimes during the conflict, and have take actions that are unambiguously horrible. Ukraine's Azov fighters are in many ways comparable to Hamas. Even in that conflict, where Ukraine is a function, organized national state with massive international backing and something that could reasonably be called technological parity, I think that Ukraine has more permissive moral ground to work with than Russia does, because it a historically imperially oppressed state resisting and invasion and occupation. Now imagine how much more permissive the moral standards for Palestine must be, given their dramatically more dire situation.

BUUNNI
Jun 23, 2023

by Pragmatica

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:


I don't know if 40 counts as en masse. But, there have been at least 40 total between two different Kibbutz.

You do realize that every single one of those dubious twitter accounts has obvious Zionist slants?

Look at the pfp of this “journalist” for instance.

https://twitter.com/Nicole_Zedek

Christ it gets worse, the i24 news is an Israeli news media owned by an Israeli billionaire.

quote:

Patrick Drahi (French pronunciation: [patʁik dʁai]; Hebrew: פטריק דרהי; born 20 August 1963) is an Israeli billionaire magnate and investor with interests in media and telecoms.

BUUNNI fucked around with this message at 18:41 on Oct 10, 2023

ImpAtom
May 24, 2007

fool of sound posted:

This calculus comes from and ends up in the right place, but nevertheless results in adding the the chorus of moral cover being provided to Israel. In a theoretical conflict where there is closer parity between the oppressor and oppressed, I think that this is a fine way of thinking about things. Here, where Israel's intensely violent oppression is taken as normal and expected, while every rocket fired into Israel is international news and the culture surrounding the conflict is such that merely vocalizing support for palestine can get you into professional or legal trouble across the west? The moral calculus is so imbalanced as to fail outright.

This is a case where I think we can only agree to disagree. I understand where you're coming from but at the end of the day I just can't agree with the point you're making.

Fister Roboto posted:

A poor choice of words on my part, but I stand by my overall point. The occupation has turned this into a fight for survival, and you can't expect people to fight cleanly for their own survival.

That's fair and I understand where you're coming from. I just had to disagree with that one point because it's something I feel very strongly about.

mannerup
Jan 11, 2004

♬ I Know You're Dying Trying To Figure Me Out♬

♬My Name's On The Tip Of Your Tongue Keep Running Your Mouth♬

♬You Want The Recipe But Can't Handle My Sound My Sound My Sound♬

♬No Matter What You Do Im Gonna Get It Without Ya♬

♬ I Know You Ain't Used To A Female Alpha♬
.

mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:15 on Nov 5, 2023

Willo567
Feb 5, 2015

Cheating helped me fail the test and stay on the show.
Is it possible that North Korea could be embolden by Hamas and attempt something in the South?

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Jimlit
Jun 30, 2005



Willo567 posted:

Is it possible that North Korea could be embolden by Hamas and attempt something in the South?

are your balls in south korea right now?

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

BUUNNI posted:

You do realize that every single one of those dubious twitter accounts has obvious Zionist slants?

Look at the pfp of this “journalist” for instance.

https://twitter.com/Nicole_Zedek

There are pictures as well. It has been confirmed by many people who have seen it in person and validated the photos. The OP you are quoting has several journalists from different orgs and countries validating it.

You are being extremely weird about it. You can search the name of the Kibbutz for extremely bad and NMS pictures as well.

Seyser Koze
Dec 15, 2013

Mucho Mucho
Nap Ghost

Willo567 posted:

Is it possible that North Korea could be embolden by Hamas and attempt something in the South?

No, this is when Cuba finally invaded Florida.

fool of sound
Oct 10, 2012

Willo567 posted:

Is it possible that North Korea could be embolden by Hamas and attempt something in the South?

I heard that this is the moment Canada has been waiting for to seize Michigan.

BUUNNI
Jun 23, 2023

by Pragmatica

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

There are pictures as well. It has been confirmed by many people. The OP you are quoting has several journalists from different orgs and countries validating it.

You are being extremely weird about it. You can search the name of the Kibbutz for extremely bad and NMS pictures as well.

I don’t think it’s a good idea to repeat dubious claims of Muslims perpetrating blood libel by individuals who are obviously Zionists during a period in a conflict where actual evidence and real journalism is not occurring in any meaningful measure.

karthun
Nov 16, 2006

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

fool of sound posted:

I heard that this is the moment Canada has been waiting for to seize Michigan.

Canada doesn't care about Michigan, the San Juan Islands on the other hand... This time two pigs will die.

Gumball Gumption
Jan 7, 2012

fool of sound posted:

I heard that this is the moment Canada has been waiting for to seize Michigan.

New England is viewing this as the time. I can't say more

Civilized Fishbot
Apr 3, 2011

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

There are pictures as well. It has been confirmed by many people. The OP you are quoting has several journalists from different orgs and countries validating it.

You are being extremely weird about it. You can search the name of the Kibbutz for extremely bad and NMS pictures as well.

I find many of the posts here - not yours but the one you're responding to - extremely reminiscent of the clumsiest and most desparate ways that diaspora Zionists defend Israeli war crimes.

"It didn't happen because there are no sources that say it happened. There are sources that say it happened? The journalists are biased, it didn't happen. And if it did happen, you have to understand, they're desperate soldiers just doing their best against an insidious enemy. In fact this happens all the time, how come you're only complaining when WE do it..."

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.
Some prognostication:

- Iran cannot hope to match the reconstruction funding postwar Gaza would require from Saudi/UAE/Kuwaiti/etc. donors; that was a dynamic after the 2008 crisis too, although it seems plausible that Israel will not permit Hamas to continue governing Gaza at all this time. So Hamas/IJ/successor org seem inevitably set to swing back into the Saudi camp.
- the evident instruction to engage in grab-and-run kidnapping seems clearly modelled on the lessons learnt from the Shalit episode from the Hamas side; conversely Israel would surely absorb also that this cannot be continued. So, bloody ground raids seem inevitable. Whether or not Hamas or Israel walks away from said raids thinking it was worth it is anyone's guess
- the West Bank still seems apathetic; news shows no big protests?
- assuming Netanyahu does not wriggle out again (a big if, granted), a successor government would be well-placed to reward a pliant PA with West Bank concessions, with the mountain of bodies in the Gaza Strip indicating non-weakness and to satisfy the post-attack domestic bloodlust (contra 2008). In a sense this is the logical takeaway from the failure of the right-wing strategy of propping up Hamas in Gaza as to show that Palestinians cannot be trusted with unilateral withdrawal - to do the exact opposite. Eventually Abbas (age 87) will have a succession crisis but that's the next problem, not the current one
- other elements of Netanyahu's foreign policy will remain: Israel will have to reward Egyptian and other Arab leaders for politically costly cooperation, not rely on the US to reliably do so on its behalf, and to limit involvement in Syria to opposing Iran
- back in the 2000s there was a conventional wisdom that peace processes have to ratified with referendums or elections; I suspect take #2 would simply dispense with it today to no sharp protest (I have a hot take that the 2016 Colombian referendum has shaped a lot of thinking globally here: peace is too important to gamble on the possibility of a 2% defeat based on fundamentally unserious objections). More concretely, Israeli observers with optimistic outlooks on democratization have been as disillusioned as everyone else post-Spring anyway.

(I paid more attention to these analyses ten years ago; would be happy to hear any alternative forecasts)

ronya fucked around with this message at 18:56 on Oct 10, 2023

Tatsuta Age
Apr 21, 2005

so good at being in trouble


Reminder the killing babies slant was pretty strongly implied and used as justification to go into Iraq the first time

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nayirah_testimony

mannerup
Jan 11, 2004

♬ I Know You're Dying Trying To Figure Me Out♬

♬My Name's On The Tip Of Your Tongue Keep Running Your Mouth♬

♬You Want The Recipe But Can't Handle My Sound My Sound My Sound♬

♬No Matter What You Do Im Gonna Get It Without Ya♬

♬ I Know You Ain't Used To A Female Alpha♬
.

mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:15 on Nov 5, 2023

Toxic Mental
Jun 1, 2019

PT6A posted:

I think there's a visceral repulsion about low-tech violence like simply cutting someone's head off. But at the end of the day, if that happens to one civilian on one side, and one civilian on the other sides dies in hospital due to lack of available treatment after receiving full-body burns that couldn't be properly disinfected, because their apartment building was bombed by expensive laser-guided bombs after there was a report a Hamas member was taking a poo poo in the downstairs john, ultimately it doesn't matter. In each case, civilian lives were lost due to deliberate action. Both are indefensible. But the international community has been all too willing to ignore the latter, or even praise it as Israel's oft-mentioned "right to defend itself, while the former is used to justify the latter.

Speaking broadly I think there’s some sense to people thinking discriminately cutting someone’s head off or something is “more wrong” or “worse” than indiscriminate bombing. It’s probably a question for the philosophers and trolley question ponderers but in theory once the bomb is dropped, it’s not guaranteed to hit anyone, but someone absolutely has to actively choose to behead someone with that knife and their hands. I don’t even think it’s wrong to say the “how” people die can be worse than other ways, like being burned alive is probably objectively worse than a nitrogen chamber execution or something, and that is probably a somewhat tangible concept that almost all humans can understand at a basic animal instinct level.

Edit: or put another way, if you believe that people have goodness/cooperation in them inherently, when you remove all plausible doubt about committing evil acts then it’s probably an evolved response to shun and avoid those people

Toxic Mental fucked around with this message at 18:58 on Oct 10, 2023

Aramis
Sep 22, 2009



Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

[...]
Yes, you cracked it. Both of those are very bad things!

I think you are discounting the importance of this point too much.

"We can all agree that Hamas is bad and doing atrocities." is a bad take in isolation because it begs the question of what we should be doing about it. In an isolated vacuum, the answer to that question is obviously "a whole lot", which is obviously not correct without equivalent measures taken against Israel.

Morality underpins actions. There is no such thing as pointing at something, calling it bad, and leaving it at that. If you give me "Hamas is committing atrocities", I assume you are implying that they should be stopped. And, in a vacuum, I also assume that you are calling for unilateral action, and I just can't abide by that.

I know that's not how many people making that point are approaching it, but that's how its coming across. So yeah, both sides are committing atrocities is indeed relevant and important to this conversation.

anchorpunch
Mar 30, 2006
What gets me about hamas atrocity excusers is that you are probably sitting in the US or western Europe and thus, by your own twisted logic, you and your loved ones would at best be marginally less deserving to be raped and murdered 'for the cause' than those Israeli kids.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

WarpedLichen
Aug 14, 2008


Aramis posted:

I think you are discounting the importance of this point too much.

"We can all agree that Hamas is bad and doing atrocities." is a bad take in isolation because it begs the question of what we should be doing about it. In an isolated vacuum, the answer to that question is obviously "a whole lot", which is obviously not correct without equivalent measures taken against Israel.

Morality underpins actions. There is no such thing as pointing at something, calling it bad, and leaving it at that. If you give me "Hamas is committing atrocities", I assume you are implying that they should be stopped. And, in a vacuum, I also assume that you are calling for unilateral action, and I just can't abide by that.

I know that's not how many people making that point are approaching it, but that's how its coming across.

I think this take is dumb, I'm going to call it bad and leave it at that.

But more seriously, most of the people talking on these forums will take no tangible action or have any tangible impact on this conflict, so saying stuff like this just makes it sound like you're huffing your own farts about the importance of internet discourse.

BUUNNI
Jun 23, 2023

by Pragmatica

Tatsuta Age posted:

Reminder the killing babies slant was pretty strongly implied and used as justification to go into Iraq the first time

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nayirah_testimony

quote:

President George Bush repeated the story at least ten times in the following weeks.[52] Her testimony helped to stir American opinion in favor of participation in the Gulf War.[53]

Will be interesting if Biden, like Bush, parrots the claim that babies were decapitated during his speech today in order to drum up support for Israel’s counteroffensive.

https://twitter.com/Nicole_Zedek/status/1711721433968111855

As expected the “journalist” that works for the Israeli news media company owned by an Israeli billionaire is walking back the claim that 40 babies were beheaded, it’s now “soldiers told me”.

BUUNNI fucked around with this message at 19:05 on Oct 10, 2023

Beefeater1980
Sep 12, 2008

My God, it's full of Horatios!






ronya posted:

Some prognostication:

- Iran cannot hope to match the reconstruction funding postwar Gaza would require from Saudi/UAE/Kuwaiti/etc. donors; that was a dynamic after the 2008 crisis too, although it seems plausible that Israel will not permit Hamas to continue governing Gaza at all this time. So Hamas/IJ/successor org seem inevitably set to swing back into the Saudi camp.
- the evident instruction to engage in grab-and-run kidnapping seems clearly modelled on the lessons learnt from the Shalit episode from the Hamas side; conversely Israel would surely absorb also that this cannot be continued. So, bloody ground raids seem inevitable. Whether or not Hamas or Israel walks away from said raids thinking it was worth it is anyone's guess
- the West Bank still seems apathetic; news shows no big protests?
- assuming Netanyahu does not wriggle out again (a big if, granted), a successor government would be well-placed to reward a pliant PA with West Bank concessions, with the mountain of bodies in the Gaza Strip indicating non-weakness and to satisfy the post-attack domestic bloodlust (contra 2008). In a sense this is the logical takeaway from the failure of the right-wing strategy of propping up Hamas in Gaza as to show that Palestinians cannot be trusted with unilateral withdrawal - to do the exact opposite. Eventually Abbas (age 87) will have a succession crisis but that's the next problem, not the current one
- other elements of Netanyahu's foreign policy will remain: Israel will have to reward Egyptian and other Arab leaders for politically costly cooperation, not rely on the US to reliably do so on its behalf, and to limit involvement in Syria to opposing Iran
- back in the 2000s there was a conventional wisdom that peace processes have to ratified with referendums or elections; I suspect take #2 would simply dispense with it today to no sharp protest (I have a hot take that the 2016 Colombian referendum has shaped a lot of thinking globally here: peace is too important to gamble on the possibility of a 2% defeat based on fundamentally unserious objections). More concretely, Israeli observers with optimistic outlooks on democratization have been as disillusioned as everyone else post-Spring anyway.

(I paid more attention to these analyses ten years ago; would be happy to hear any alternative forecasts)

Get out of here with this actual analysis partner, it’s hot takes wall to wall.

Bholder
Feb 26, 2013

anchorpunch posted:

What gets me about hamas atrocity excusers is that you are probably sitting in the US or western Europe and thus, by your own twisted logic, you and your loved ones would at best be marginally less deserving to be raped and murdered 'for the cause' than those Israeli kids.

Are these people in the room with us right now?

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Willo567
Feb 5, 2015

Cheating helped me fail the test and stay on the show.

mannerup posted:

ill give you reassurance again, dumb people online are reading way too far into a statement by the ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff earlier that they are "preparing for the possibility of North Korea launching a surprise attack using tactics such as Hamas' attack on Israel" and that North Korea "could occupy the border area and secure hostages to escalate tensions and induce negotiations" in a report provided to the National Assembly Defense Committee

The article says that North Korea is preparing for the possibility of a surprise attack, at least whe you translate it online

mannerup
Jan 11, 2004

♬ I Know You're Dying Trying To Figure Me Out♬

♬My Name's On The Tip Of Your Tongue Keep Running Your Mouth♬

♬You Want The Recipe But Can't Handle My Sound My Sound My Sound♬

♬No Matter What You Do Im Gonna Get It Without Ya♬

♬ I Know You Ain't Used To A Female Alpha♬
.

mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:15 on Nov 5, 2023

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Miftan
Mar 31, 2012

Terry knows what he can do with his bloody chocolate orange...

ronya posted:

Some prognostication:


- the evident instruction to engage in grab-and-run kidnapping seems clearly modelled on the lessons learnt from the Shalit episode from the Hamas side; conversely Israel would surely absorb also that this cannot be continued. So, bloody ground raids seem inevitable. Whether or not Hamas or Israel walks away from said raids thinking it was worth it is anyone's guess
- the West Bank still seems apathetic; news shows no big protests?


The west bank has regular protests (at least 1-2 a week, at specific places and times) so they're never reported on, but I imagine those have gotten rowdier/more violent. It's a 'dog bites man' scenario though so unless something BIG happens, it won't get reported, but it is almost definitely happening worse than usual.

As for hostages, I'm pretty sure it is official policy in Israel that dead civilians are preferable to kidnapped civilians.

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