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And if I were him, two lesser pieces for one superior isn't a good trade. I'm holding on to JJ but if I were trading him I'd be looking for Austin Ekeler and I say that as someone who has Mostert
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Oct 20, 2023 21:57
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JJ was a guaranteed 22pts on average, which is really hard to replace
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Oct 20, 2023 22:21
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Yeah… it’s almost time.
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Oct 20, 2023 22:51
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I have Jefferson in dynasty and I'm toying with the idea of trading him because I'm all in on this year and want to stay competitive. But even then, the return I'd want would be a top 10 RB and two startable WRs, one of which being a top 20 receiver. I think I can still make the playoffs without JJ, so most likely I'll just hold on to him and hope they don't keep him out, but I am willing to consider offers for him.
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Oct 20, 2023 23:29
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Yeah I’m holding him. The schedule for when he would be eligible to come back is really soft and as long as they don’t trip on their own feet* after this Niners game they’ll have a decent shot at a run for a wildcard spot. I think the fears of him being shutdown are overblown. *it’s the Vikings so no guarantees
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Oct 21, 2023 00:13
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Are dynasty leagues so common now that “redraft league” has become the norm to say? Before when I saw it in this thread I thought it was some form of doing a draft week 4 when we know who is garbage.
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Oct 21, 2023 00:49
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Tom Tucker posted:Are dynasty leagues so common now that “redraft league” has become the norm to say? Before when I saw it in this thread I thought it was some form of doing a draft week 4 when we know who is garbage. that and keeper leagues, yes.
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Oct 21, 2023 01:12
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Tom Tucker posted:Are dynasty leagues so common now that “redraft league” has become the norm to say? Before when I saw it in this thread I thought it was some form of doing a draft week 4 when we know who is garbage. I'm at the point where I think of dynasty first whenever anyone is talking about fantasy. I'm usually thinking about superflex 12-team dynasty as a default -- if I get no further information from the person seeking advice.
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Oct 21, 2023 07:21
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Tom Tucker posted:Are dynasty leagues so common now that “redraft league” has become the norm to say? Before when I saw it in this thread I thought it was some form of doing a draft week 4 when we know who is garbage. I’m a relative fantasy noob - only been playing for 5 years and we use the NFL Fantasy. It’s been a real lurking curve hovering around threads like this and other fantasy communities understanding all the different ways to play and terminology. I’m not even sure if the official NFL game/app offers dynasty?
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Oct 21, 2023 10:31
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Bumhead posted:I’m a relative fantasy noob - only been playing for 5 years and we use the NFL Fantasy. This one year, a player who was going around the 3rd-4th round was surprisingly cut by his team. This was in late August. NFL.com removed him from their platform but forgot to remove him from their rankings. As a result, any time that player was drafted it crashed the draft and could not be resumed. Since he was ranked relatively high, all NFL.com drafts with at least one autodrafter inevitably crashed, ruining the draft. Happened for an entire weekend in late August before it was fixed.
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Oct 21, 2023 15:44
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Drunk Nerds posted:This one year, a player who was going around the 3rd-4th round was surprisingly cut by his team. This was in late August. NFL.com removed him from their platform but forgot to remove him from their rankings. Andrew Luck?
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Oct 21, 2023 17:13
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No it was some starting RB on like the Seahawks or Ravens or somewhere.
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Oct 21, 2023 17:22
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Tom Tucker posted:Are dynasty leagues so common now that “redraft league” has become the norm to say? Before when I saw it in this thread I thought it was some form of doing a draft week 4 when we know who is garbage. They’re common enough in the fantasy industry and the degens that read their articles and listen to their podcasts that it’s helpful to clarify. They’re not common among the general fantasy userbase though.
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Oct 21, 2023 17:49
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Love those FAAB waivers that win by exactly one dollar. Feel like I’m on the Price is Right.
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Oct 21, 2023 17:59
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Drunk Nerds posted:No it was some starting RB on like the Seahawks or Ravens or somewhere. It was Justin Forsett on the Ravens
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Oct 21, 2023 19:05
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Welp, Kyren Williams just hit the IR so I guess if Zach Evans is somehow still available he's probably worth picking up.
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Oct 21, 2023 19:48
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Hendo just got sign off the practice squad too. It's a whole mess, Freeman and Gaskin are also in the mix.
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Oct 21, 2023 19:50
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Looking at the waiver wire and thinking about Latavius Murray and Zeke Elliot 2018 me would be looking at 2023 me like I had three heads
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Oct 21, 2023 19:55
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axelord posted:Hendo just got sign off the practice squad too. Yeah, I'm basically hoping that Evans will have first crack because he's new and also I think he was the only one who was actually on the active roster before four days ago.
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Oct 21, 2023 20:06
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Jeff Wilson Jr SZN
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Oct 21, 2023 20:18
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ElectricRelaxation posted:Yeah, I'm basically hoping that Evans will have first crack because he's new and also I think he was the only one who was actually on the active roster before four days ago. There's kinda of a narrative for all of them. Evans is the exciting rookie Freeman is the vet that's been on the team. Could he have the trust of the coaches Evans lacks? Think he's more of a special teamer. Hendo had success with the team before and knows the offense. But is he in football shape? Gaskin is the most like Williams. It's looking like Hendo, Evans and Freeman will be active right now, but who knows.
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Oct 21, 2023 20:23
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The boring truth is none of them will be fantasy relevant
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Oct 21, 2023 20:23
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God damnit, I’m cursed. Had Chubb and Dobbins to start the year, picked up Kyren to buoy my team, now I’m staring at this. I’m 3-3 and just need to get to 8 wins somehow 
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Oct 21, 2023 20:39
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The overly broad term "league winner" gets thrown around a lot so i thought of a way to quantify and settled on comparing average fantasy points per game vs. their draft peers (+3/-3 at the same position). I split into separate RB vs WR graphs since one chart was too noisy.  The interpretation is that ETN gives you a 7.5 PPG advantage over the RBs drafted around him. I set the league winners line at a 6 point draft advantage since Brian Robinson being called a league winner doesnt feel right, and also bc I love Monty.  Fewer WR league winners reinforces that it's harder to find a positional advantage at WR since there's so much production there and also suggests WR ADP is ~accurateish relative to RB. I couldnt think of an objective way to adjust for DJM's 45 point game so it's just skewing his position here. Still, the other guys make sense, I knew Keenan was doing great but underestimated how late he was going in drafts (ridley/deebo tier). Some potential improvements:
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Oct 21, 2023 21:06
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I think there's a bias in both those graphs away from early draft picks. Tyreek Hill, for example, has contributed significantly more than Keenen Allen has, but because Tyreek's ADP was so high, there's no room to boost him. Same thing with CMC (and ETN) and Achane/Zack Moss. It's almost like that graph needs to be a cone and not a square.
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Oct 21, 2023 21:17
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Fight Club Sandwich posted:Awesome stuff I love these so much. Keep doing them!
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Oct 21, 2023 21:26
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illcendiary posted:God damnit, I’m cursed. Had Chubb and Dobbins to start the year, picked up Kyren to buoy my team, now I’m staring at this. I’m 3-3 and just need to get to 8 wins somehow You are exactly me. Good luck friend, I'm praying for Najee to finally show up
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Oct 21, 2023 22:03
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saintonan posted:I think there's a bias in both those graphs away from early draft picks. Tyreek Hill, for example, has contributed significantly more than Keenen Allen has, but because Tyreek's ADP was so high, there's no room to boost him. Same thing with CMC (and ETN) and Achane/Zack Moss. That's the point though. He's trying to address the phenomenon of a FA pickup or trade target being labeled as a "league winner". Someone that can put your team over the top. You obviously likely need to hit on your first couple picks. Nobody is calling Tyreek a league winner in that sense because he was a consensus first rounder and the kind of foundation you need on a team for your mid-season pickups to matter.
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Oct 21, 2023 22:05
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Gobias Ind. posted:That's the point though. He's trying to address the phenomenon of a FA pickup or trade target being labeled as a "league winner". Someone that can put your team over the top. You obviously likely need to hit on your first couple picks. Nobody is calling Tyreek a league winner in that sense because he was a consensus first rounder and the kind of foundation you need on a team for your mid-season pickups to matter. I think it's a valuable chart to see who the late bloomers are this season (to be super clear, I really like the chart), but maybe "league winner" isn't the right term then. More people are going to win leagues because they drafted Reek and Diggs instead of JJ and Chubb than because they drafted Allen or Achane later.
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Oct 21, 2023 23:22
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Gobias Ind. posted:That's the point though. He's trying to address the phenomenon of a FA pickup or trade target being labeled as a "league winner". Someone that can put your team over the top. You obviously likely need to hit on your first couple picks. Nobody is calling Tyreek a league winner in that sense because he was a consensus first rounder and the kind of foundation you need on a team for your mid-season pickups to matter. Exactly this! Said another way: picking Tyreek over his draft peers (Diggs/AJB) is only a 4.5 PPG advantage which is nice but not league winning, whereas grabbing Keenan Allen over his peers (DK Metcalf tier, 11 PPG advantage) absolutely is. Also nicely illustrates how unlucky CeeDee Lamb drafters are even though his PPG doesnt look that bad. Also re: CMC, the chart shows that even at his very high draft premium, McCaffrey is still conferring an 8 point advantage over even the other elite drafted RBs, def counts as league winning imo. SouthShoreSamurai posted:I love these so much. Keep doing them! Thanks! I'm in the "just tinkering with different ways to visualize data" phase so LMK if there's any datasets you'd be interested in seeing visualized e: saintonan posted:I think it's a valuable chart to see who the late bloomers are this season (to be super clear, I really like the chart), but maybe "league winner" isn't the right term then. More people are going to win leagues because they drafted Reek and Diggs instead of JJ and Chubb than because they drafted Allen or Achane later. Using total fantasy points instead of PPG as the base for value would better reflect season injuries but would also overstate the impact of BYEs and 1-2 wk minor injuries. Still, total ~might be a better way to think about this, thanks for the feedback ! Fight Club Sandwich fucked around with this message at 00:16 on Oct 22, 2023 |
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Oct 21, 2023 23:23
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Who's a better hold? Mitchell or Henderson?
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Oct 22, 2023 00:12
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Chernabog posted:Who's a better hold? Mitchell. Shanahan likes him and if CMC is out Mitchell is the lead. He’ll also get hurt but he has produced in the past. Henderson is off the street, no training camp, hasn’t been practicing, etc.
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Oct 22, 2023 00:27
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Love those graphs! Looks at RBs on team, has Achane, Mostert, Walker, Kamara. “Buncha league winners over here, team is rolling!” Looks at WR, has JJ, Higgins, Waddle, completely cancelling out my RB hits. Excellent, 3-3, perfectly balanced as all things should be.
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Oct 22, 2023 02:58
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Drunk Nerds posted:No it was some starting RB on like the Seahawks or Ravens or somewhere. please say it was Forsett. Edit: just saw a post after this. Felt like Forsett from ... 2015?
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Oct 22, 2023 05:30
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EconDad posted:please say it was Forsett. Gobias Ind. posted:It was Justin Forsett
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Oct 22, 2023 05:31
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He don't make the law, he Justin Forsett
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Oct 22, 2023 05:45
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rotowire on Zach Evans posted:Looks set to remain backup Week 7 Don't know how much of this is coach speak, but definitely sound like a situation to avoid.
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Oct 22, 2023 06:55
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dxt posted:Don't know how much of this is coach speak, but definitely sound like a situation to avoid. But what of the “Gask of Amontillado”, Myles Gaskin?
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Oct 22, 2023 08:57
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As someone with Kyren I’m not touching that backfield until he’s back. It just looks like a total mess and I can’t imagine Kyren not being The Guy once he’s back.
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Oct 22, 2023 08:57
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Kilometers Davis posted:As someone with Kyren I’m not touching that backfield until he’s back. It just looks like a total mess and I can’t imagine Kyren not being The Guy once he’s back. the Rams and Cardinals RB situations got so terrible so fast, it's truly astonishing. Sometimes I feel like the days of just "plugging in Thomas Rawls" and getting lots of points or "plugging in Robert Kelley", and doing the same... is not coming back. Instead, we get the current Rams/Cardinals messes or something like the Hilliard/Foreman situation in Tennessee a couple years ago.
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Oct 22, 2023 08:59
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