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My league might have a whole mess of guys at 4-3 (including me) after this week. There's only 4 playoff spots for a 10 man league, so even if I keep winning I think I'm going to really need some good weeks to boost my points if it comes down to tiebreakers. I had a couple of terrible weeks that are really dragging me down. Maybe the guy in 1st place will eventually have a bad week, but not this one. He plugs in Foreman for his injured Monty and Kyren Williams, and again blows everyone out of the water. Dude had/has Chubb, Khalil Herbert, Kyren Williams, and Monty all out and is still finding dudes to put up huge games. He has a combo of the worst and best luck.
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Oct 23, 2023 16:01
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1 of our 5-1's lost this week, already, 1 is behind, but still has CMC to go (but behind by 20 and the other guy, against CMC, not the 5-1, has Kittle to go) and then there is me, against the remaining 5-1, who has 0 players going, I have 2 (a RB and WR) am only behind by 4, but am sure I still lose. But if things work out how they should, our league is almost all right ontop of each other, other than 1 person who is going 0-7, probably. All of your top performers losing is as a fun thing to see.
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Oct 23, 2023 16:28
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ShowTime posted:All of your top performers losing is as a fun thing to see. Exactly this. Week 5 we had two clear cut top guys, one at 5-0 and another at 4-1 with another handful at 3-2/2-3. After this week it’s going to be a four-way tie for first with four teams at 5-2, myself included. Also one of the guys who started 0-4 is clawing his way back up and about to be 3-4. Fantasy owns.
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Oct 23, 2023 16:37
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I started 0-4 in my dynasty league and am now 3-4, one game out of the playoffs, in 5th place. Feels good man
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Oct 23, 2023 16:39
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Well Josh Palmer made me eat all my pessimism about him this week. Also, start any defense going up against the Commanders. They give up an ungodly amount of sacks.
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Oct 23, 2023 17:09
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Gonna be 6-1 in my main league with 14 teams, seventh place (first out of the playoffs) is gonna be 3-4 with a huge PF disadvantage. feels very good.
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Oct 23, 2023 17:26
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I was doing so well early in the day and projected to win by a nice amount until D'Onta Foreman's bullshit and the late games where Herbert, Ekeler, and Mostert all poo poo the bed for me. Now I'll lose if Kittle scores 7.4
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Oct 23, 2023 17:28
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My team was in trouble until someone offered me james cook gabe davis and kirk cousins for tlaw and gibbs. I now get to play matchups between goff and cousins and, if eke gets unfucked, have Eke kamara sungod puka andrews with one of scarold tarrold, amari, or cook at flex. Could win after all!
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Oct 23, 2023 18:41
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Bird in a Blender posted:As long as Hockenson doesn't score 40 points tonight I win, so I feel pretty good about it. Thank you Kelce. I didn't need to sweat Tua's crap game because of you. Also, thank you Bijan for getting sick and giving my opponent 0.3 points. I got to play against Bijan in two of my five leagues this week. These are the weeks I need to remember when I claim to have bad luck most of the time. One of them also had Watson in the SUPERFLEX. The most beautiful sorts of luck.
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Oct 23, 2023 18:42
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Varg posted:I was doing so well early in the day and projected to win by a nice amount until D'Onta Foreman's bullshit and the late games where Herbert, Ekeler, and Mostert all poo poo the bed for me. Now I'll lose if Kittle scores 7.4 Any PPR? Kittle has been below 7.4 a bunch in my 0.5 PPR league, so if it's no PPR, the odds don't seem that awful. Not that I wouldn't be sweating it the whole game either way.
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Oct 23, 2023 18:52
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Bird in a Blender posted:Any PPR? Kittle has been below 7.4 a bunch in my 0.5 PPR league, so if it's no PPR, the odds don't seem that awful. Not that I wouldn't be sweating it the whole game either way. Kittle going HAM tonight. I can feel it in the air. Prime time game, coming off of a non-game for him? He's about to smash.
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Oct 23, 2023 18:56
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EconDad posted:Kittle going HAM tonight. I can feel it in the air. Prime time game, coming off of a non-game for him? He's about to smash.
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Oct 23, 2023 19:32
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Is 70 points between Cousins and CMC too much to ask?  Had to go up against the entire Ravens offense yesterday
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Oct 23, 2023 19:37
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Bird in a Blender posted:Any PPR? Kittle has been below 7.4 a bunch in my 0.5 PPR league, so if it's no PPR, the odds don't seem that awful. Not that I wouldn't be sweating it the whole game either way.
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Oct 23, 2023 19:39
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Multiple reports say CMC is gonna try to play but he never took any hits in practice so no one knows how he's gonna feel when he takes his first big hit tonight.
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Oct 23, 2023 19:42
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saintonan posted:Multiple reports say CMC is gonna try to play but he never took any hits in practice so no one knows how he's gonna feel when he takes his first big hit tonight. His head is going to fly off into a nearby dumpster, just like in Friday the 13th VIII: Jason Takes Manhattan. First hit, head flies off into dumpster, and the dumpster closes.
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Oct 23, 2023 20:14
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Another great week for accurate fantasy expert predictions. blue is the range of BEST to WORST pregame rank, orange square shows where they finished.  Big yikes, just throw darts. Top 5 ranked RBs finished as RB17, RB35, RB37, RB24, and RB4   Sorted by top scorers instead since there's so little overlap between top ranked and top finishers. I dont want to captain hindsight too much but it's completely absurd that not a single person in the entire realm of fantasy "experts" forecasted JT to be elite or that Aaron Jones' hammy would cap his usage or that a Rams RB might finish top 20. I completely understand the other side but at least one person should have predicted one of those outcomes Takeaways:
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Oct 23, 2023 20:20
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I love poo poo like this. Everyone's predictions don't mean poo poo, they just look at the best and say the best 32 of you rank this way and ultimately, it doesn't matter. Swift is a crazy good RB and hasn't let up.
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Oct 23, 2023 20:32
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ShowTime posted:I love poo poo like this. Everyone's predictions don't mean poo poo, they just look at the best and say the best 32 of you rank this way and ultimately, it doesn't matter. Swift is a crazy good RB and hasn't let up. Contrived analogy I'll probably get ribbed for, but... It really is like playing Magic: the Gathering (or any other card game). There's absolutely skill tests involved: building your deck, sideboarding between matches, piloting your deck well. Lots of point where a player's ability helps them win. But sometimes 8 of the top 10 cards in your deck are lands and you just lose no matter what you do, it was just destined to happen. Fantasy feels a lot that way: drafting is a skill test, knowing who to roster and who to start is a skill test, but sometimes injuries or bad QBs or whatever happens and you just eat poo poo.
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Oct 23, 2023 20:38
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EconDad posted:Kittle going HAM tonight. I can feel it in the air. Prime time game, coming off of a non-game for him? He's about to smash. I need him to outscore McCaffery by 2, not feeling confident unless CMC leaves the game early.
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Oct 23, 2023 20:52
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Fight Club Sandwich posted:Another great week for accurate fantasy expert predictions. blue is the range of BEST to WORST pregame rank, orange square shows where they finished. This is really cool. Can I ask how many expert rankings you used and where they're from? I'm curious if any sources seemed consistently better than the others, and also how accurate the mode for each range was. Like did one dude just nail Etienne at 4 and everyone else had him as a low end RB1, or were most people having him as a top 5 RB and just a couple guys placed him at 10; or maybe without that one dude putting Gibbs that low, his range was all in the top 20. Thanks!
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Oct 23, 2023 20:53
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Judgy Fucker posted:Contrived analogy I'll probably get ribbed for, but... Looking back at my draft in my main league, the only pick I really hate is Daniel Jones (lol why did I fall for this). I feel like the rest were defensible. I haven't even had bad injury luck. They just... all loving suck, for various reasons (all of these were pushed up a bit by keepers eliminating half the normal first/second round guys) 1. Davante Adams. The Raiders are awful, he's been banged up, now Jimmy G is injured, and Jakobi Meyers gets all the targets 2. Waddle. Hill is having one of the greatest seasons of all time so why would you ever throw to someone else 3. Mattison. The thesis was correct that he would get a ton of work and lead the backfield. He should have been an awesome zero RB pick. Just one problem: he and the Vikings are bad Rhamondre on a godawful team with Zeke Elliott of all people stealing work, McLaurin on a godawful team that doesn't target him, etc etc Other than drafting Dimes my main regret is not dumping clips on Puka and Kyren. This league has historically been huge cheapskates so when people dumped like $80 on them outta nowhere I was caught napping
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Oct 23, 2023 21:11
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Judgy Fucker posted:Gonna be 5-2 after the MNF games wrap up tonight. Big props to kiimo for telling me to draft Kelce when I first kramered in here a few months ago not knowing a Goddamned thing about fantasy football. The Taylor Swift thing has helped make Sundays more palatable to my wife, too. lmao hell yeah
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Oct 23, 2023 21:41
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Fight Club Sandwich posted:Another great week for accurate fantasy expert predictions. blue is the range of BEST to WORST pregame rank, orange square shows where they finished.
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Oct 23, 2023 21:50
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Yeah for sure. If someone could actually consistently predict performance they wouldn’t be grinding out fantasy content for bad pay they’d be taking down the DraftKings milly maker every week
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Oct 23, 2023 21:53
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Judgy Fucker posted:Contrived analogy I'll probably get ribbed for, but... it's a good analogy. You can do all the research and watch all the tape and correctly identify the guys who are going to do well, but that improves a random dart throw to like 70/30 at best, and then too often that 30 hits and you're left with six studs who manage to all poo poo themselves at the same time in week 15 or you happen to play a top-two scoring team seven weeks in a row. The best thing you can do is put yourself in a position to win, but there's very little you can do beyond that to consistently elevate yourself from a regular season champ to a league champ.
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Oct 23, 2023 21:54
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Poque posted:it's a good analogy. You can do all the research and watch all the tape and correctly identify the guys who are going to do well, but that improves a random dart throw to like 70/30 at best, and then too often that 30 hits and you're left with six studs who manage to all poo poo themselves at the same time in week 15 or you happen to play a top-two scoring team seven weeks in a row. The best thing you can do is put yourself in a position to win, but there's very little you can do beyond that to consistently elevate yourself from a regular season champ to a league champ. Yeah that’s a good way of putting it too. I don’t mean my posts to sound like mega cope. There’s absolutely skill to winning in fantasy. There’s just also a shitload of luck. Over time and over a large number of leagues sharpers players should win more often. But plenty of times you just roll snake eyes and all your guys get injured. Or the guy who randomly took Justin Forsett in the last round that year he had like 1500 yards and 10 tds above his career average clowns everyone.
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Oct 23, 2023 22:01
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"Fantasy is all luck" I say as I stare at my Zach Evans and Craig Reynolds shares
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Oct 23, 2023 22:07
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Fight Club Sandwich posted:Another great week for accurate fantasy expert predictions. blue is the range of BEST to WORST pregame rank, orange square shows where they finished. Which experts? Name names!
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Oct 23, 2023 22:14
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ElectricRelaxation posted:This is really cool. Can I ask how many expert rankings you used and where they're from? I'm curious if any sources seemed consistently better than the others, and also how accurate the mode for each range was. Like did one dude just nail Etienne at 4 and everyone else had him as a low end RB1, or were most people having him as a top 5 RB and just a couple guys placed him at 10; or maybe without that one dude putting Gibbs that low, his range was all in the top 20. Thanks! It's fantasypros ECR - every week ~200 experts publish their rankings and ECR is "most accurate experts with recent updates" so fpros tosses the rankings published on tuesday before a guy sprains his ankle during practice. This week's ECR was 53 experts grabbed on saturday before the games were played. Idk if there's any option to see the specific data points, the top page only shows ECR, best, worst, avg, and STD DEV. -ETN was preranked consensus #5 with STD DEV of 1.5 so ~reasonably clustered around 4-6 and the guy who ranked him 10th is an outlier, so it seems experts are respecting ETN as an elite back. -Gibbs was preranked consensus #20 with STD DEV of 5.7 so dispersed data over his 12-42 range. you may be able to find specific rankings on fantasypros but im too lazy to search through the menus Judgy Fucker posted:Contrived analogy I'll probably get ribbed for, but... Agreed on most of this but the data suggests that sit vs start is not a skill test, or at least that experts do not have that skill. Probably some experts can do ROS rankings reasonably reliably but a sample size of one game has too much variance for anyone to succeed consistently. Deckbuilding = roster management = skill; Individual draws = sit/start = luck.
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Oct 23, 2023 22:19
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Fight Club Sandwich posted:It's fantasypros ECR - every week ~200 experts publish their rankings and ECR is "most accurate experts with recent updates" so fpros tosses the rankings published on tuesday before a guy sprains his ankle during practice. This week's ECR was 53 experts grabbed on saturday before the games were played. Idk if there's any option to see the specific data points, the top page only shows ECR, best, worst, avg, and STD DEV. Awesome, thanks for this!
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Oct 23, 2023 22:41
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Just saw Dawson Knox is having wrist surgery. Looks like I am burning some FAAB for Kincaid this week since I streamed Musgrave and he immediately got hurt again
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Oct 23, 2023 22:48
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The most important skill in fantasy is just paying attention. I got a notification before the late afternoon games yesterday about Metcalf being out so I was able to scoop up Smith-Njigba and start him for some good points. I still lost because the rest of my team took a big dump, but I had a better shot at winning. In my guillotine league the Metcalf owner did not pay attention and might be getting the chop tonight because he wasn't paying attention at the right time.
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Oct 23, 2023 22:54
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I winced when I saw the score ticker for the Commanders game not listing Logan Thomas. I was pleasantly surprised to see 9 points in PPR. That's how loving dire TEs are.
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Oct 23, 2023 22:59
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Docjowles posted:Just saw Dawson Knox is having wrist surgery. Looks like I am burning some FAAB for Kincaid this week since I streamed Musgrave and he immediately got hurt again Is Everett or Thomas available? I don’t think relying on NE is a big idea just because he had a good week, especially since they face TB next week
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Oct 23, 2023 23:59
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Oh also I’m playing Logan next week so we will for sure know I am the TE curse if he eats poo poo
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Oct 24, 2023 00:00
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A trade offer appears. Where do people come up with this poo poo  (I would be the side giving Pollard and Achane)
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Oct 24, 2023 00:54
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Docjowles posted:A trade offer appears. Where do people come up with this poo poo I can't even process the thought that would justify this one. More is better?
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Oct 24, 2023 01:02
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I've played with my leagues long enough that they know better than to send three lovely guys for two good ones as if they add up to good players like it's cash. Sure these players are trash but look at the bright side you can start all three in one slot! Oh right no you can't so they're completely worthless.
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Oct 24, 2023 01:47
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Everyone wants to trade all of their bench trash for a good player. No one wants to accept that trade though.
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Oct 24, 2023 02:01
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You are receiving this broadcast as a dream...We are transmitting from the year one nine... nine nine ...You are receiving this broadcast in order t