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uaw reaches tentative agreement with fordquote:The United Auto Workers (UAW) union reached a tentative labor deal on Wednesday with Ford Motor (F.N), the first of Detroit's Big Three car manufacturers to negotiate a settlement to strikes joined by 45,000 workers since mid-September. seems like a lot of gains to me, especially for those on the lower end of the wage range. the inflation of the last few years takes a bite out of those headline figures, but even then i have to think this is a substantial real wage increase for most works compared to prepandemic but then again i'm a poor hayseed who can't grasp the concept of a multimillion dollar luxury bus i hope this will mark the turning point where labor in this country starts to take back everything that's been lost over the last 50 years
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Oct 26, 2023 06:48
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So, like... obviously there was no reason the dems would have backed Mccarthy. And nobody outside the Republican machine is any worse off for the dems not having propped Mccarthy up. But we're approaching a shut down and a default. Accelerations forces want these things; capitalist forces oppose them. The tight margins for a gop majority, the rule that anybody in his party can hold a vote to remove... its perfect leverage to produce a speaker that goes rogue during the debt limit negotiations, wins dem support liberals enough to hold a vote for something well shy of a 'clean' bill. So the gop searched long and hard for the person least likely to pull that stunt. Because the accelerationists have control of the gop, and only need control of one of the houses of government to wreck havoc.
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Oct 26, 2023 07:08
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XboxPants posted:https://heavy.com/news/robert-card-x-twitter-politics/ To add to this the town, Lewiston, is one Tucker Carlson has constantly talked about because it has a large Somali immigrant population and has repeatedly used it as an example of the white supremacy Great Replacement conspiracy theory. Guess who the shooter is a big fan of https://x.com/iwriteok/status/1717387535234502945?s=46&t=pNldmjaPbwK7Jf44h_hOow
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Oct 26, 2023 07:26
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With everything else going on in the world, I kind of forgot that sometimes a person in America will just pick up a gun and shoot a bunch of people. Nothing much to say though, it loving sucks, dozens of lives and families just got ended/irrevocably broken, the GOP are going to dodecadown on gun ownership and nothing will change. Turning to the House, I agree with the assessment that the Dems made the smart plays throughout. I am a bit surprised the GOP actually got someone, anyone, in the role before a shutdown hit, but the Democrats let the Republicans flounder for weeks while major international events occurred, and now an unknown neophyte with a bunch of baggage is in the chair. Yeah, he's probably going to screw around trying to prove Hunter Biden did 9/11 or whatever the gently caress, but he's worse placed to get anything done than Kev was and the Democrats can still just keep saying "The Republicans have a majority, why do they need us for anything? Can't they keep their house in order?" E; oh and thread title, neat 
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Oct 26, 2023 08:46
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I hope that the GOP going full 4chan troll right before an election makes them lose again
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Oct 26, 2023 09:15
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With Newbie's plan to just let the various Charimen make budgets, are there any parts of our government that might get better funding because the Chair of their section is just a milquetoast evil rear end in a top hat instead of an Ayn Rand acolyte?
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Oct 26, 2023 10:44
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Ms Adequate posted:Hunter Biden did 9/11 I always suspected but I just didn't want to believe 
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Oct 26, 2023 11:11
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Gyges posted:With Newbie's plan to just let the various Charimen make budgets, are there any parts of our government that might get better funding because the Chair of their section is just a milquetoast evil rear end in a top hat instead of an Ayn Rand acolyte? the senate and president also have to agree, so just get ready for more CR shenanigans forever
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Oct 26, 2023 12:46
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Nervous posted:I always suspected but I just didn't want to believe Guy turns around too fast and that giant hog he has just starts knocking buildings down.
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Oct 26, 2023 13:04
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XboxPants posted:This wave of transphobia is having real consequences. People aren't just losing the right to dye their hair blue, children are being butchered. If these shooters were with Hamas instead of "Proud Patriots", and killing our citizens, in our borders, the government would be spending millions of dollars to fight it. The average trans person does not give a flying gently caress about blue hair compared to, you know, the right for trans people to get the medications and healthcare they need, or the right to simply exist in public spaces without being defined as porn, or being able to use the loving bathroom without being arrested, or what will happen if Biden loses, or
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Oct 26, 2023 13:13
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Snowy posted:I hope you’re right. I keep thinking Democrats were like Charlie Brown trying to kick the ball Lucy is holding. If Matt Gaetz proposes an idea, maybe don’t vote for it? Even if the GOP looked like a mess for a little while people aren’t really going to care in a few days. Now Gaetz and the far right demonstrated they have the power to really shake things up and come out ahead, especially if the democrats will unite to enable them. In order to win the votes of Gaetz and the rest of the Freedom Caucus originally, McCarthy offered them all sorts of stuff, promising them pretty much everything they asked for. In order to win Democrats' votes, he promised them absolutely nothing. He didn't even ask for their votes. When even the Republicans expected concessions in return for their votes, it would have been ridiculous for Dems to vote for him for free. Especially when he still intended to keep the promises he'd made to most of the Republican caucus. If he wanted Dem votes, he needed to make actual concessions to the Dems (and back them with ironclad assurances, because nobody trusts his promises anymore).
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Oct 26, 2023 13:28
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I think it's also a very healthy sign that Democrats, as a party, are no longer accepting the default assumption that everything is their fault and they exist to clean up Republican messes in between them achieving power and throwing shitfits. A lot of people and organizations were very resistant to the idea that Republicans are bad faith actors actively detrimental to the continued existence of a stable society and that dam seems to be breaking finally.
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Oct 26, 2023 13:44
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bird food bathtub posted:I think it's also a very healthy sign that Democrats, as a party, are no longer accepting the default assumption that everything is their fault and they exist to clean up Republican messes in between them achieving power and throwing shitfits. A lot of people and organizations were very resistant to the idea that Republicans are bad faith actors actively detrimental to the continued existence of a stable society and that dam seems to be breaking finally. It certainly doesn't hurt that a majority of the country full believes that Trump's tenure was chaos, and Biden - while old and unexciting - is an establishment politician with a decades-long record of stability.
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Oct 26, 2023 13:48
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Shooting Blanks posted:I'd be willing to bet that the majority of House GOP members simply want the American public to forget the last 3 weeks even happened, and continue on with business as usual. A ton of those folks will say anything just to move the discussion in a different direction than "The GOP is incompetent and can't lead, even with a majority." Most wil forget. Most voters are not even paying attention in the first place. This poo poo doesn't really matter except for rallying donors to open their checkbooks. Same as it ever was
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Oct 26, 2023 13:54
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XboxPants posted:
Excuse me, I'm not worried about not being able dye my goddamn hair
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Oct 26, 2023 13:58
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Maine shooting suspect identified and his vehicle has been found. Shooter still at large. Goddamn, it's way too easy in this country to get a gun. Just released a few months ago, had previously threatened to shoot up an army base, and was able to already get his hands on (or already owned) an AR-15. How the hell was he still a certified firearms instructor? God, I hate our country's approach to firearms.
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Oct 26, 2023 14:03
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Someone pointed out on Twitter that it’s easier to buy a rifle than Sudafed in most states
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Oct 26, 2023 14:06
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Kalit posted:Goddamn, it's way too easy in this country to get a gun. Just released a few months ago, had previously threatened to shoot up an army base, and was able to already get his hands on (or already owned) an AR-15. The boring and sad answer is that Maine doesn't have a red flag law and spending two weeks in a mental health facility isn't a crime, so they couldn't legally take any of his guns. His employer could have maybe fired him, but wasn't obligated to do so. His employer also wasn't legally required to know any of the specifics, so we don't know how much he actually told them.
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Oct 26, 2023 14:09
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The more I read about Johnson the more reprehensible he is. He’s a staunch freedom caucus member who represents the most regressive attitudes in the country. He’s only more palatable than Jordan because he’s not as well known but he seems to be worse in many ways. That little glimmer of hope when a few Rs stood up to Jordan just vanished in some back room deal that put his bestest buddy on the throne. This is going to be an utter poo poo show.
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Oct 26, 2023 14:10
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That’s the thing, what changed? There had to be something, if not The only other thing I can think of is he is such a relatively unknown for the most part that they it would slide under the radar. Might be why some were yelling and booing when the reporter was asking questions because that would spoil everything.
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Oct 26, 2023 14:17
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Murgos posted:The more I read about Johnson the more reprehensible he is. GOP swinging wildly from "we don't negotiate with terrorists" to "ah gently caress it these maga reps won't let us win, might as well give them what they want already"
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Oct 26, 2023 14:18
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Snowy posted:I hope you’re right. I keep thinking Democrats were like Charlie Brown trying to kick the ball Lucy is holding. If Matt Gaetz proposes an idea, maybe don’t vote for it? Even if the GOP looked like a mess for a little while people aren’t really going to care in a few days. Now Gaetz and the far right demonstrated they have the power to really shake things up and come out ahead, especially if the democrats will unite to enable them. McCarthy initiated an impeachment inquiry into Biden, participated in the attempt to overturn the election, killed January 6th hearings and cut Ukraine aid out of the CR to fund the government. He did everything he could to piss democrats off in order to please the freedom caucus. Despite pissing off the dem caucus repeatedly he was facing the motion to vacate Democrats said repeatedly that they were open to voting for him in exchange for concessions. McCarthy did not call them to even attempt to negotiate once. How is it democrats fault that McCarthy failed to take an opportunity? How is is a failure for Democrats that they didn't cave and give a man who had repeatedly demonstrated that he was not a friend of theirs everything he wanted in exchange for nothing? In place of McCarthy they now have someone who also participated in the attempt to overturn the election and killed the January 6th hearings. This person has inherited every single one of McCarthy's weaknesses, a 4 seat majority with a caucus that has no cooperative tendencies and lost only one weakness: that the freedom caucus does not currently hate his guts. Paul Ryan also began his weakness without this weakness and quickly regained it and anyone who gets the speakership is probably going to get them to hate him as they immediately become the establishment. In exchange for gaining this one, notoriously evaporative, strength, they get someone who has no institutional knowledge, no favors from fundraising and campaigning to cash in, no leadership experience. He has taken extreme vocal positions on cutting Medicare and social security, gay marriage and abortion. In other words the three most deeply unpopular pieces of the republican platform that republicans with good political instincts try to avoid mentioning once theyre past the primary and that democrats with good political instincts try to mention constantly. And of this 4 seat majority we can see that it was won on the back of moderate republicans in biden-won districts in the northeast and especially New York. Democrats got someone just as likely to kick them in the nuts as McCarthy was but who is far more incompetent, more likely to fail and easier to campaign against. After getting three weeks of republicans looking incompetent and ungovernable in the media. They are in a much better position politically than they were a month ago. But they should have surrendered? Why?
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Oct 26, 2023 14:26
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I know it's too late, but I'm sad the thread title didn't lean into his name. "GOP finds Johnson after 3-week search" has some potential, maybe workshop it a bit and send it to one of the tabloids that does funny headlines
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Oct 26, 2023 14:32
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U.S. GDP grew by a huge margin in the last quarter, driven mostly by increased consumer spending. Spending on necessities increased, but disposable income and spending on luxuries increased even more. The only sector with lower growth was investment in factories, capital, and tools - however, this had surged in the last year and a half, so the sector itself seems to be doing fine. However, there is concern that there was a massive surge in investment triggered by the CHIPS act, IRA, and bipartisan infrastructure bill that won't be repeatable. quote:“It’s enough to knock me over with a feather,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. “We’ve had the most aggressive credit tightening from the Federal Reserve since the 1980s and, guess what, the economy’s accelerating. We really underestimated how much consumers could keep spending." - Good News: This is generally all very good news, but some analysts think this may be a surge of growth before a period of much slower growth to come. It's hard to know for sure, because people have also been predicting a major recession for the last two years, but that does not appear to be happening. It would take a major unexpected economic event to trigger a recession next year at this rate - Potentially bad news: On average, people still have higher savings than pre-pandemic, but they have been depleting over the last two years for the bottom 70% of incomes. This past quarter was also the first quarter this year where real disposable income went down slightly (0.9%). There is also some concern that the next inflation report (due out in about two weeks) will not be as low as expected if prices were propped up by surging demand and spending. - Even that potentially bad news is pretty surprisingly good given the huge rate increases from the Fed and previously very high inflation from 2021 and early 2022. tl;dr: The U.S. economy post-pandemic keeps surprising people in good and bad ways and a lot of traditional predictions and relationship models that people were certain of pre-pandemic are not working as accurately to make predictions anymore. This could be a temporary surge and a return to slower growth and low, but still elevated and sticky, inflation is possible. If the inflation report in early November is good, then it could indicate that the U.S. is finally basically out of most of the major economic damage caused by the pandemic (including most of the inflation) after nearly 3 years. And, the astonishing thing is that it would be done without a major recession or mass unemployment. https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/status/1717519421466448075 https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/status/1717520979528659146 https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/status/1717525578767643080 https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/10/26/gdp-third-quarter-economy-growth/ quote:U.S. economy grows at blockbuster pace in third quarter Flashback to one year ago for how unexpected this was: https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1717521561417077203 Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 14:47 on Oct 26, 2023 |
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Oct 26, 2023 14:33
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Is there a link to the article somewhere in your post and I'm missing it?
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Oct 26, 2023 14:43
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Quixzlizx posted:Is there a link to the article somewhere in your post and I'm missing it? I don't know if it's in the tweets Leon shared since I can't view Twitter where I'm at right now, but I think he shared a WP article. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/10/26/gdp-third-quarter-economy-growth/
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Oct 26, 2023 14:45
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Quixzlizx posted:Is there a link to the article somewhere in your post and I'm missing it? Yeah, it is one of the tweets in the chain from the same WaPo author, but it isn't embedding the reply for some reason. I added the link in directly underneath. It is here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/10/26/gdp-third-quarter-economy-growth/
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Oct 26, 2023 14:46
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Thanks. I actually checked all three tweets and didn't see the link, but I don't have a Twitter account, so I can't see tweet chains due to Elon's fuckery.
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Oct 26, 2023 14:50
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Real wages falling isn’t a surprise to me - anecdotally it seems businesses in my white collar sector want to claw back some of the gains people made in terms of salary after how en fuego the labor market was 2021/2022-ish. Huge layoffs flooding the labor market with people have seemed to achieve their effect in terms of stunting wage growth.
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Oct 26, 2023 14:51
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Speaking of Elon fuckery, he scrubbed the shooter's history before suspending the account. https://twitter.com/AnonArchOps/status/1717406061324272096
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Oct 26, 2023 14:52
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Europe has had a much tougher time with inflation than most other areas because their energy prices have been so closely connected with Russian natural gas. But, it is still weird how Japan is now one of the fastest growing G8 countries and how much better the U.S. has come out of the pandemic compared to other major countries. The especially wild thing is that the pandemic seemed to accidentally help Japan come out of its decades long economic slump because they had been trying to raise inflation in the country for so long, but failing, and then the pandemic came and did it for them. The U.S. secret seems to have been heavy stimulus spending in early 2021, more heavy spending on manufacturing from legislation in 2022, less dependence on foreign natural gas, and some kind of weird luck/FED action/unknown factor that allowed the U.S. to get inflation down faster without major job losses compared to other countries. It is kind of strange that the U.S. is doing so much better than the other G8 countries, but even U.S. economists can only really explain about 80% of the difference and have no idea why the other 20% worked out so well.    https://home.treasury.gov/news/featured-stories/the-us-economy-in-global-context
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Oct 26, 2023 15:05
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The US is down 1.5 million people participating in the labor market and the gulf of people exiting vs people entering is going to keep widening as boomers age out of the work.
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Oct 26, 2023 15:11
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i am a moron posted:The US is down 1.5 million people participating in the labor market and the gulf of people exiting vs people entering is going to keep widening as boomers age out of the work. I'm waiting for this to meaningfully impact the debate on immigration.
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Oct 26, 2023 15:15
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Kammat posted:Speaking of Elon fuckery, he scrubbed the shooter's history before suspending the account. Did he? Is there any more detail about this? And preferably a better source than this random insane Twitter user?
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Oct 26, 2023 15:16
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i am a moron posted:The US is down 1.5 million people participating in the labor market and the gulf of people exiting vs people entering is going to keep widening as boomers age out of the work. That is more of a problem for social security and pensions rather than the economy as a whole. Japan is also in a much worse situation and is also one of the better performing countries. Having fewer people working would also hurt GDP, so it either isn't hurting or the country is growing so rapidly that it is overcoming the lower labor part. Or do you just mean that the economy may be in trouble in the future and you're not saying that as an explanation for current performance?
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Oct 26, 2023 15:17
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Main Paineframe posted:Did he? Is there any more detail about this? And preferably a better source than this random insane Twitter user? kazil posted:
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Oct 26, 2023 15:21
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:That is more of a problem for social security and pensions rather than the economy as a whole. Japan is also in a much worse situation and is also one of the better performing countries. I think it’s one of the quirks that is making a US economic conditions harder to predict from a macro perspective is all. Long term it’s going to be problematic, but short term it has benefited the consumers driving GDP growth and shifted the market under employers feet in a not so subtle way Morrow posted:I'm waiting for this to meaningfully impact the debate on immigration. Same.
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Oct 26, 2023 15:24
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:
Am I reading this right that inflation is at 1.9%? Isn't that pretty much the ideal rate for inflation according to the Fed, or is there a different inflation rate they look at? Seems like if inflation is down to 2% then the Fed is probably done raising interest rates.
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Oct 26, 2023 15:27
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i am a moron posted:The US is down 1.5 million people participating in the labor market and the gulf of people exiting vs people entering is going to keep widening as boomers age out of the work. it didn't affect the debate when the media couldn't stop talking about the labor shortage. it just gets used as a hammer to cut welfare even more.
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Oct 26, 2023 15:29
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Bird in a Blender posted:Am I reading this right that inflation is at 1.9%? Isn't that pretty much the ideal rate for inflation according to the Fed, or is there a different inflation rate they look at? Seems like if inflation is down to 2% then the Fed is probably done raising interest rates. The Fed is probably done raising interest rates, though they may inch it up another notch or two to keep the fear of god in Wall Street. Core CPI here excludes stuff like food, energy, used cars etc. that fluctuates a lot. Now obviously that's problematic since that's what a lot of people see price changes in, but it's easier to measure and analyze since it removes a lot of volatility. One refinery going out isn't going to shift the numbers.
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Oct 26, 2023 15:33
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