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Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Hamelekim posted:

At some point countries in the region will have to take military action against Israel when Israel goes into Gaza and the deaths increase. The people in those countries will riot and threaten to overthrow their autocratic rulers if they don't.


uh huh

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

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Neurolimal
Nov 3, 2012

Bel Shazar posted:

Indiscriminately killing your prison population because part of that population broke out of prison and killed people is never a proportional response.

FWIW I think they meant insofar as "everyone in Israel's freaking out and making the exact same mistakes as the US during 9/11"

Collapsing Farts
Jun 29, 2018

💀

Hamelekim posted:

At some point countries in the region will have to take military action against Israel when Israel goes into Gaza and the deaths increase. The people in those countries will riot and threaten to overthrow their autocratic rulers if they don't.


What on earth made you come to this conclusion

selec
Sep 6, 2003

Hamelekim posted:

At some point countries in the region will have to take military action against Israel when Israel goes into Gaza and the deaths increase. The people in those countries will riot and threaten to overthrow their autocratic rulers if they don't.

There is a reason that leaders in the region have backed away from normalization with Israel, and it has nothing to do with a change of heart.

You, and a lot of other people would be extremely well-served by reading a new book by journalist Vincent Bevins, IF WE BURN. It tracks the history of and reflects on the success or lack thereof of protest movements around the world in the last 10-15 years.

TL;DR is ask the people who filled up Tahrir Square if they felt like they got what they wanted, or if they ended up with something quite different than what they wanted. But seriously, read that book. Protests aren’t enough, and may in fact be counterproductive depending on how they go. You might end up empowering the very forces you opposed if they can hijack it, which happened globally several times in recent history. I cannot recommend it highly enough.

Bel Shazar
Sep 14, 2012

Neurolimal posted:

FWIW I think they meant insofar as "everyone in Israel's freaking out and making the exact same mistakes as the US during 9/11"

Proportional to the US's massively overblown and deeply self-serving reaction, absolutely.

Kalit
Nov 6, 2006

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

selec posted:

What’s your strategy for ending this practice besides putting your head in the sand?

I didn't mean in a way for people to be unaware of it, but I meant in a sense of giving more clicks/interaction to a lovely dox on Twitter.

Carmant
Nov 23, 2015


Treadmill? What's that? Is that some kind of cake?


Viller posted:

Thank you for the level headed response, they are hard to come by nowadays.

I just dont see how this stops while Hamas is still in power, its hard to believe for me that the population actually wanted stuff like October 7th to happen. An election supervised by a 3rd party not named Israel could change my whole view of the conflict, I'm sure I am not the only one also...

That 3rd party will be named the United States and they will do a coup if Israel doesn't like the results.

TGLT
Aug 14, 2009

Collapsing Farts posted:

Hamas is poo poo and I hope the entirety of Hamas is destroyed

And how many kids are you content to see Israel massacre in the ostensible pursuit of this goal? We're at three thousand so, say four thousand? Five thousand? Ten thousand? Do you think Israel has the right to murder as many children as it wants so long as it can be said to nebulously advance this goal?

Hamelekim
Feb 25, 2006

And another thing... if global warming is real. How come it's so damn cold?
Ramrod XTreme

Collapsing Farts posted:

What on earth made you come to this conclusion

Logic and reason. Why have the rules including Saudi Arabia turned away from normalization all of a sudden? Why do they have to be seen to be on the side of the Palestinians all of a sudden if they aren't in fear of their own population? They certainly don't care, but protests around the region for the Palestinians seems to have been the trigger.

I mean even in Egypt you had protests where protesting isn't legal and they didn't do anything to stop it.

Blarghalt
May 19, 2010

Hamelekim posted:

At some point countries in the region will have to take military action against Israel when Israel goes into Gaza and the deaths increase. The people in those countries will riot and threaten to overthrow their autocratic rulers if they don't.

There is a reason that leaders in the region have backed away from normalization with Israel, and it has nothing to do with a change of heart.

Arab dictators all up and down the Middle East have had no problem in the past doing unpopular stuff that sucks poo poo and having the military crack the heads of any protestors that think otherwise. They also all almost universally share a sentiment that Israel can't be defeated anyway and must be appeased at any cost, which just further reinforces them going to extreme lengths to not do anything overt even with extreme public pressure. I think what's far more likely is that that a lot of arab countries around Israel pretend to act like they're going to do something, but mostly just quietly chill relations and cancel trade deals or something they know they can reverse if the winds blow the other way.

Groovelord Neato
Dec 6, 2014


TGLT posted:

And how many kids are you content to see Israel massacre in the ostensible pursuit of this goal? We're at three thousand so, say four thousand? Five thousand? Ten thousand? Do you think Israel has the right to murder as many children as it wants so long as it can be said to nebulously advance this goal?

Likud has killed far more innocent people than Hamas ever could but we don't hear people calling them a terrorist group. We're already about 3:1 for children murdered vs civilians murdered during Hamas's attacks (I know people like to say 1400 but a sizable chunk of that was IDF/cops which gets ignored).

selec
Sep 6, 2003

Hamelekim posted:

Logic and reason. Why have the rules including Saudi Arabia turned away from normalization all of a sudden? Why do they have to be seen to be on the side of the Palestinians all of a sudden if they aren't in fear of their own population? They certainly don't care, but protests around the region for the Palestinians seems to have been the trigger.

I mean even in Egypt you had protests where protesting isn't legal and they didn't do anything to stop it.

We don’t know that they have turned away from normalization. It’s a very common tactic in governments of all types to delay a process or desire rather than abandon it, wait for your disorganized opposition to wear themselves out/the moment of contestation to pass, and then pick up where they left off.

Like how American legislators of both parties still periodically go back to looking for ways to cut Social Security. They will keep trying, their incentives are such that they have to keep trying, and what the little people need or want doesn’t figure into it.

Governments are like a dude who only stops cheating on his wife long enough for her to stop checking his phone so thoroughly.

They don’t fear their populations so much as they have a strategy for managing negative PR. Going back to the husband example: wouldn’t he just stop cheating if he actually respected or feared his wife’s opinion or actions? It takes a lot for a protest to actually succeed, the vast majority fail, and there are really well-worn and documented tactics governments of all flavors can and do use to ride out the turbulence then go ahead and do what the ruling class wanted to do in the first place.

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

Groovelord Neato posted:

Likud has killed far more innocent people than Hamas ever could but we don't hear people calling them a terrorist group.

Not anymore.

But that is their origins.

TGLT
Aug 14, 2009
It is strange how the zionist terrorist group Irgun eventually transitioned into Herut then got rolled into Likud, but we're supposed to pretend such a process could never happen with Hamas.

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

Jaxyon posted:

Not anymore.

But that is their origins.

Indeed so. No one speaks about the poison fruit of the terrorist groups Irgun or Lehi. Those were Freedom Fighters, according to our current discourse.

theCalamity
Oct 23, 2010

Cry Havoc and let slip the Hogs of War
https://twitter.com/akbarsahmed/status/1717597275755601933

https://twitter.com/akbarsahmed/status/1717597660725612989

Hamelekim
Feb 25, 2006

And another thing... if global warming is real. How come it's so damn cold?
Ramrod XTreme

selec posted:

You, and a lot of other people would be extremely well-served by reading a new book by journalist Vincent Bevins, IF WE BURN. It tracks the history of and reflects on the success or lack thereof of protest movements around the world in the last 10-15 years.

TL;DR is ask the people who filled up Tahrir Square if they felt like they got what they wanted, or if they ended up with something quite different than what they wanted. But seriously, read that book. Protests aren’t enough, and may in fact be counterproductive depending on how they go. You might end up empowering the very forces you opposed if they can hijack it, which happened globally several times in recent history. I cannot recommend it highly enough.

I know all about the failure of protests to affect any real political change. It depressed me a great deal at the time when I realized that nothing was going to change. The reasons for the protests are different though. I'm not saying that they will affect positive change internally, but that it could cause them to act militarily in some fashion.

Maybe it's a false assumption, but I hope that they will, because otherwise everyone is going to just stand by and watch a genocide occur and do nothing.

I might read the book but I don't really want to because it will just make me depressed.

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006
"We don't have the data on this"

"How about this data"

"No no that data isn't good enough. Who can ever truly know?"

This is so frustrating

Jen heir rick
Aug 4, 2004
when a woman says something's not funny, you better not laugh your ass off

Collapsing Farts posted:

What on earth made you come to this conclusion

What on earth are u what on the earthing for. You got something to say then say it.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Because it's ludicrous on multiple levels. These countries have put down protests before. And launching a suicidal war against a nuclear power fully backed by the US is a far more insane concession to make than any internal change.

selec
Sep 6, 2003

Hamelekim posted:

I know all about the failure of protests to affect any real political change. It depressed me a great deal at the time when I realized that nothing was going to change. The reasons for the protests are different though. I'm not saying that they will affect positive change internally, but that it could cause them to act militarily in some fashion.

Maybe it's a false assumption, but I hope that they will, because otherwise everyone is going to just stand by and watch a genocide occur and do nothing.

I might read the book but I don't really want to because it will just make me depressed.

You only have to feel depressed if there is no other way. There are other ways, read your Lenin and Mao. You don’t have to agree with their goals, but their tactical and strategic analysis was correct, and there are frameworks you can adapt to modern contexts.

I’m sorry the future sucks, but doomerism and refusing to look won’t make it suck less. You’re already gazing at the horror, might as well learn while you do it, IMO.

People can be mobilized en masse—they will get into the streets for a good cause. This is self-evident, as we have seen recently and in the last 20+ years, they will get out there! That’s very optimism-generating for me! That there is a lot of organizational and educational work to be done to make those mass mobilizations effective isn’t a cause for depression. The people will be there in the streets, as we see; it’s just a problem of getting them to do something more effective once they get there. It’s not an easy job, but it’s a job that’s been done effectively in the past, and can be done effectively again.

Zulily Zoetrope
Jun 1, 2011

Muldoon

HonorableTB posted:

"We don't have the data on this"

"How about this data"

"No no that data isn't good enough. Who can ever truly know?"

This is so frustrating

and don't forget

"No one is questioning or underplaying the scope of this crisis, comma, and here is why we've decided that it's actually not that big a deal and we'll only start caring once it's over (leaving implicit that that will also be when we can't be expected to stop it from happening)."

Hamelekim
Feb 25, 2006

And another thing... if global warming is real. How come it's so damn cold?
Ramrod XTreme

selec posted:

We don’t know that they have turned away from normalization. It’s a very common tactic in governments of all types to delay a process or desire rather than abandon it, wait for your disorganized opposition to wear themselves out/the moment of contestation to pass, and then pick up where they left off.

Like how American legislators of both parties still periodically go back to looking for ways to cut Social Security. They will keep trying, their incentives are such that they have to keep trying, and what the little people need or want doesn’t figure into it.

Governments are like a dude who only stops cheating on his wife long enough for her to stop checking his phone so thoroughly.

They don’t fear their populations so much as they have a strategy for managing negative PR. Going back to the husband example: wouldn’t he just stop cheating if he actually respected or feared his wife’s opinion or actions? It takes a lot for a protest to actually succeed, the vast majority fail, and there are really well-worn and documented tactics governments of all flavors can and do use to ride out the turbulence then go ahead and do what the ruling class wanted to do in the first place.

I pretty much agree with you. I'll just say that nothing lasts forever, especially autocratic governments. They always fall in the end given enough time.

Shageletic
Jul 25, 2007

selec posted:

You, and a lot of other people would be extremely well-served by reading a new book by journalist Vincent Bevins, IF WE BURN. It tracks the history of and reflects on the success or lack thereof of protest movements around the world in the last 10-15 years.

TL;DR is ask the people who filled up Tahrir Square if they felt like they got what they wanted, or if they ended up with something quite different than what they wanted. But seriously, read that book. Protests aren’t enough, and may in fact be counterproductive depending on how they go. You might end up empowering the very forces you opposed if they can hijack it, which happened globally several times in recent history. I cannot recommend it highly enough.

Basically that's what happened with the US protests of the 1960s as well. Just a route to reactionary land.

Groovelord Neato
Dec 6, 2014


Jaxyon posted:

Not anymore.

But that is their origins.

poo poo the terror group that tried to ally with Hitler got folded into the IDF and they give out a military award named after them.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Viller posted:

Thank you for the level headed response, they are hard to come by nowadays.

I just dont see how this stops while Hamas is still in power, its hard to believe for me that the population actually wanted stuff like October 7th to happen. An election supervised by a 3rd party not named Israel could change my whole view of the conflict, I'm sure I am not the only one also...

I think you're coming at this from a very one-sided perspective. You asked whether Gaza was faking fatality numbers, but you never asked whether Israel faked the Oct 7th fatality numbers. You seem to feel that the 2006 election that Hamas won wasn't legitimate, but have you ever questioned whether Israel's elections are legitimate? You feel that the Palestinian people couldn't possibly support a violent political group killing several hundred Israeli civilians in indiscriminate attacks, but the Israeli people are supporting a violent political group that's engaged in multiple massacres of similar size against Gaza.

To be clear, there's no reason to think that Israel is faking casualty numbers or rigging elections. But there's no reason to think that Hamas is faking casualty numbers or rigging elections either. Why is your suspicion reserved exclusively for one side of the conflict?

Personally, I find the elections thing to be especially ridiculous because Hamas were basically the only ones who didn't engage in misconduct during and after the 2006 elections (which were supervised by an independent international commission). Israel heavily put their thumb on the scale, especially in East Jerusalem. And when that failed, Hamas' opponents attempted a coup (under heavy pressure from the US and Israel) and made a number of unconstitutional political changes in the territory that they managed to seize control of in the resulting civil war. None of this is secret! The Fatah-Hamas conflict is well-known, and Bush's State Department leaked like a sieve and even left a paper trail documenting the pressure that US diplomats were expected to put on Abbas to oust Hamas (with US support to handle the expected civil war). Yet without fail, practically everyone who's ignorant of the conflict tends to come in assuming that Hamas' win was illegitimate.

skipmyseashells
Nov 14, 2020

Irony Be My Shield posted:

Because it's ludicrous on multiple levels. These countries have put down protests before. And launching a suicidal war against a nuclear power fully backed by the US is a far more insane concession to make than any internal change.

Not as much as watching a genocide happen on their doorsteps

pumpinglemma
Apr 28, 2009

DD: Fondly regard abomination.

skipmyseashells posted:

Not as much as watching a genocide happen on their doorsteps
Good point - politicians of all stripes are notoriously prone to attacks of conscience when innocent lives are at stake, and that goes double for dictators.

But seriously, if they do anything other than whatever lines their own pockets most then it’s probably in order to preserve their positions of power. There’s no world in which actually attacking Israel helps then with that, but the fact they’re backing away from Israel rather than ignoring the massacre and especially the fact that they’re allowing illegal protests to happen rather than stamping them out does indicate they’re feeling real pressure at least for the moment.

hadji murad
Apr 18, 2006

PT6A posted:

Indeed so. No one speaks about the poison fruit of the terrorist groups Irgun or Lehi. Those were Freedom Fighters, according to our current discourse.

When I saw pro-Israel posters saying that violence against civilians is always wrong, I realized that none of them knew how Israel was actually founded (and about any event besides October 7th).

mannerup
Jan 11, 2004

♬ I Know You're Dying Trying To Figure Me Out♬

♬My Name's On The Tip Of Your Tongue Keep Running Your Mouth♬

♬You Want The Recipe But Can't Handle My Sound My Sound My Sound♬

♬No Matter What You Do Im Gonna Get It Without Ya♬

♬ I Know You Ain't Used To A Female Alpha♬
.

mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:40 on Nov 5, 2023

socialsecurity
Aug 30, 2003

hadji murad posted:

When I saw pro-Israel posters saying that violence against civilians is always wrong, I realized that none of them knew how Israel was actually founded (and about any event besides October 7th).

I don't understand the connection here I guess, what about the founding of Israel means that violence against civilians isn't wrong?

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

mannerup posted:

violence against civilians is always wrong, don't see how Israel being founded through displacement, ethnic cleansing and committing atrocities against civilians makes that statement wrong or hypocritical unless they believe none of those events actually occurred

It seems often in the media that violence against Israeli civilians is simply more wrong than against Palestinian civilians.

I saw the whole world mourn the attack in Israel but largely shrug at a much larger atrocity in Gaza.

Irony Be My Shield
Jul 29, 2012

Arguing that violence against civilians and collective punishment are OK actually is the worst possible thing you can be doing right now if you don't want Israel to wipe out Gaza.

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

mannerup posted:

violence against civilians is always wrong, don't see how Israel being founded through displacement, ethnic cleansing and committing atrocities against civilians makes that statement wrong or hypocritical

You're correct, but when a representative of the State of Israel comes for an interview with some empty-head on CNN, are they ever asked "do you condemn Irgun?" or "do you condemn the massacre at Tantura?" Yet it's apparently the duty of everyone arguing for the Palestinian cause in the media, to first rend their garments and condemn in the strongest terms, everything Hamas has ever done.

Both these groups committed atrocities. Hamas hopes their atrocities end in liberation for their people, no different from what Irgun hoped, and indeed what Irgun achieved via those atrocities. Without justifying what they did, can you at least understand why they might have done it?

Blarghalt
May 19, 2010

Irony Be My Shield posted:

Arguing that violence against civilians and collective punishment are OK actually is the worst possible thing you can be doing right now if you don't want Israel to wipe out Gaza.

They're hellbent on that anyway.

Rigel
Nov 11, 2016

Irony Be My Shield posted:

Arguing that violence against civilians and collective punishment are OK actually is the worst possible thing you can be doing right now if you don't want Israel to wipe out Gaza.

I figure this might be a good time to say that, at least from a moderation point of view, I do not interpret "collective punishment against the people of (name of country/state/whatever)" as genocide or saying we should directly punish the people out of justice or revenge.

I see it as more imposing a punishment, reparations, losing land, whatever against the nation that can then indirectly impact the people who enabled their nation to do terrible things in the first place, which is what often happens when a nation loses a conflict, right or wrong.

So no, I'm not probing someone for saying they believe the people of (Israel/Gaza/USA/whoever) should be collectively punished for allowing their country to do something bad, unless they make it very clear that they believe genocide is justified.

socialsecurity
Aug 30, 2003

Rigel posted:

I figure this might be a good time to say that, at least from a moderation point of view, I do not interpret "collective punishment against the people of (name of country/state/whatever)" as genocide or saying we should directly punish the people out of justice or revenge.

I see it as more imposing a punishment, reparations, losing land, whatever against the nation that can then indirectly impact the people who enabled their nation to do terrible things in the first place, which is what often happens when a nation loses a conflict, right or wrong.

So no, I'm not probing someone for saying they believe the people of (Israel/Gaza/USA/whoever) should be collectively punished for allowing their country to do something bad, unless they make it very clear that they believe genocide is justified.

So to be clear calling for violence against civilians is ok but the line is at genocide?

Rigel
Nov 11, 2016

socialsecurity posted:

So to be clear calling for violence against civilians is ok but the line is at genocide?

No.

mannerup
Jan 11, 2004

♬ I Know You're Dying Trying To Figure Me Out♬

♬My Name's On The Tip Of Your Tongue Keep Running Your Mouth♬

♬You Want The Recipe But Can't Handle My Sound My Sound My Sound♬

♬No Matter What You Do Im Gonna Get It Without Ya♬

♬ I Know You Ain't Used To A Female Alpha♬
.

mannerup fucked around with this message at 18:40 on Nov 5, 2023

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Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Rigel posted:

I figure this might be a good time to say that, at least from a moderation point of view, I do not interpret "collective punishment against the people of (name of country/state/whatever)" as genocide or saying we should directly punish the people out of justice or revenge.

I see it as more imposing a punishment, reparations, losing land, whatever against the nation that can then indirectly impact the people who enabled their nation to do terrible things in the first place, which is what often happens when a nation loses a conflict, right or wrong.

So no, I'm not probing someone for saying they believe the people of (Israel/Gaza/USA/whoever) should be collectively punished for allowing their country to do something bad, unless they make it very clear that they believe genocide is justified.

Reparations and losing land aren't collective punishment. They're fundamentally punishments against the state, not against people (though they can frequently lead to collective punishment as a result). Punishing a state is not collective punishment (though punishing a nation is, since strictly speaking the word "nation" refers to a cultural or ethnic group rather than to a country).

Collective punishment is when people are punished for things that they didn't do, being held responsible for the acts of a state or of other people. For example, responding to an insurgent attack by indiscriminately massacring civilians in the area - a tactic used frequently by the Nazis in the 1940s, and also by Israel in the 2020s. Another example would be using the crimes of a few people to justify mass oppression of their entire ethnic group - a practice that was popular with Hitler, Stalin, Menachim Begin, and Benjamin Netanyahu.

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