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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1724940242744954967 Is Biden not on the ballot in Georgia?
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 19:11 |
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# ? May 25, 2024 14:03 |
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A lot of people seem to think that “critical thinking” is starting from what you believe now, seeking out sources arguing the opposite, and then switching to believing those instead
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 19:12 |
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haveblue posted:A lot of people seem to think that “critical thinking” is starting from what you believe now, seeking out sources arguing the opposite, and then switching to believing those instead I'm not sure how that would even work or have ever seen anyone do this? Seems like it would have a person constantly flip flopping, do you have an example?
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 19:14 |
socialsecurity posted:Yeah a fair number of leftists I know have started repeating right wing propaganda as fact, it's like the idea of "think critically about what this person is trying to convince you of" part of their brain gets shut off the moment that thing is critical of America because America/the dems = bad therefore anything that is against them must be good. There's a natural tendency to believe anything that reinforces our priors and once you swallow enough heuristic damage it's real easy to fall down a rabbit hole. Intelligence and education aren't sufficient protections and if anything may make you more vulnerable due to overconfidence in your own beliefs. I'm starting to suspect the only real defenses are humility, kindness, and the deliberate avoidance of all social media other than Wikipedia.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 19:14 |
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MonkeyOnFire posted:For those who can stomach it, I feel like this is bordering on required reading as a civic duty. It's not long, but it hits hard. Hard. Everything there is devastating, but those Uvalde pics...jesus loving christ. Yeah. Man I just don't think I can do it. Seeing any of the young school pics (with young kids in school) would be too much I think.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 19:15 |
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socialsecurity posted:I'm not sure how that would even work or have ever seen anyone do this? Internet atheists who are ex evangelicals. Libertarians who are now authoritarian communists.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 19:17 |
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Internet atheists who are ex evangelicals. Libertarians who are now authoritarian communists. Ah yeah the first one especially hits the nail on the head, I've seen both sides of getting in/out of religion do exactly that basically.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 19:18 |
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:There's a natural tendency to believe anything that reinforces our priors and once you swallow enough heuristic damage it's real easy to fall down a rabbit hole. Intelligence and education aren't sufficient protections and if anything may make you more vulnerable due to overconfidence in your own beliefs. My defense is: The more something confirms my priors the more I interrogate it. Or intend to, anyway, when I don't is when I get in trouble. BonoMan posted:Yeah. Man I just don't think I can do it. Seeing any of the young school pics (with young kids in school) would be too much I think. I'm already maximally for gun control, I don't see the utility in performing some sort of psychological ritual of flesh mortification.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 19:30 |
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zoux posted:
same
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 19:31 |
zoux posted:My defense is: The more something confirms my priors the more I interrogate it. Or intend to, anyway, when I don't is when I get in trouble. In theory, sure, but from what I've read, cognitive biases remain even when you're aware of them and trying to compensate for them.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 19:32 |
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The issue is most people find data that agrees with their hypotheses and say “the data backs up what I believe” instead of “the data doesn’t disprove my belief”.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 19:35 |
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I simply never believe anything I read on the internet.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 19:39 |
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i just don't believe anything
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 19:40 |
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a strange and magical world with no form or truths
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 19:40 |
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:In theory, sure, but from what I've read, cognitive biases remain even when you're aware of them and trying to compensate for them. That's where humility and forgiveness come in. People, including ourselves WILL mess up on the very positions we care for the most. We all do it, and it will always happen at some point. Give as many people the benefit of the doubt as you can; maybe they made a mistake and try constructive, non-personal critique to correct their position. Then also apply that to yourself when you are being critiqued; maybe you did mess up, maybe they are trying to help constructively but probably don't know the best way to convey that to you specifically. Of course everyone has their patience limits, assess each hill individually if it's worth fighting on or not. The exception is for people in power, the cost of having greater responsibility is being held to a higher behavioral and rhetorical standard. We can't afford letting them screw up as often as the average citizen, if they can't take that heat then they need to get out of the kitchen. Or is the case for seemingly half of politicians these days, legally removed from said kitchen.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 19:44 |
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zoux posted:I'm already maximally for gun control, I don't see the utility in performing some sort of psychological ritual of flesh mortification. Completely understood. For me, it helps to strengthen my resolve on this subject, but I keep hoping that an article like this or the in-depth portrait of the crime scene investigators at Sandy Hook will help to keep folks who consider gun control a lower priority from just thinking about the consequences in terms of numbers when another mass shooting pops up on the evening news. I don't want any more destruction, but if it keeps happening, there's got to be an Emmett Till moment in hopes of turning things around. I dunno, it's probably foolish to think the US is gonna find the light on this issue. It should have happened ages ago. It NEEDED to happen after Sandy Hook. Maybe we're just terrible. But I sure as poo poo don't want to see my kids (or anybody else) turned into a pile of parts because they were sitting in the wrong classroom on the wrong day, and I want people to snap the gently caress out of it before I have to take that call, y'know? So, yeah, in the meantime, I hope the media keeps reminding people of the actual consequences of our collective inaction.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 19:48 |
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1724940242744954967 I think it's real. If the election were held right now, Biden would lose hard. The problem is young minority voters peeling away. These people don't vote in midterms. They don't necessarily support Republicans, they see Trump as a protest vote that will get Democrats' attention (even though the last couple times it didn't). I do think polls are overestimating conservative support some amount byt the directionality of the result is right. There's a year for that to change though.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 19:53 |
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MonkeyOnFire posted:For those who can stomach it, I feel like this is bordering on required reading as a civic duty. It's not long, but it hits hard. Hard. Everything there is devastating, but those Uvalde pics...jesus loving christ. Gotta second this. You can skip the pictures, but the article itself (which is just one part of a series) is almost equally brutal and important. Foreward: quote:Why we are publishing disturbing content from AR-15 mass shootings First article in the series: quote:Mass shootings involving AR-15s have become a recurring American nightmare.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 19:57 |
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:In theory, sure, but from what I've read, cognitive biases remain even when you're aware of them and trying to compensate for them. I try to compensate by very carefully looking at things I want to be true, but I think what happens is at best I post fewer stupid noncredible stories, but my bias is slow to change.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 19:57 |
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Bodyholes posted:I think it's real. If the election were held right now, Biden would lose hard. The problem is young minority voters peeling away. These people don't vote in midterms. They don't necessarily support Republicans, they see Trump as a protest vote that will get Democrats' attention (even though the last couple times it didn't). Right but that poll says that ANY democratic candidate would lose if the election was held today. But Democrats continue to overperform in every single post-Dobbs election. Elections are real, polls are estimations, and those estimations aren't matching electoral outcomes and no one can figure out why. Before we squared that circle by saying, well, maybe it's just Biden has some unique problems and not the party, but this poll says the opposite. zoux fucked around with this message at 20:01 on Nov 16, 2023 |
# ? Nov 16, 2023 19:57 |
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BonoMan posted:Yeah. Man I just don't think I can do it. Seeing any of the young school pics (with young kids in school) would be too much I think. We live about 6 blocks from my kids' school, they all go to the same elementary/middle school, and whenever I hear sirens in the area I panic for a moment that Something Has Happened at their school. My kids talk (and sometimes cry) about their lockdown drills. I don't need to see photos of kids turned into hamburger. I imagine it and worse everytime I panic about those sirens.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 20:23 |
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zoux posted:Right but that poll says that ANY democratic candidate would lose if the election was held today. But Democrats continue to overperform in every single post-Dobbs election. Elections are real, polls are estimations, and those estimations aren't matching electoral outcomes and no one can figure out why. Before we squared that circle by saying, well, maybe it's just Biden has some unique problems and not the party, but this poll says the opposite. Hey, I want to be wrong. I do think it's suspicious that Manchin polls the best. I expect that polls are catching us at a time when Republicans are already united behind their frontrunner before the primary has even happened, and Democrats are at their most divided--still mulling whether to replace Biden or not. I think the relative enthusiasm is captured in the polls but there should be a closening in several months when it becomes more clear that this is going to be a repeat of 2020 and the stakes are even higher than last time.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 20:35 |
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VorpalBunny posted:I don't need to see photos of kids turned into hamburger. I imagine it and worse everytime I panic about those sirens. Completely empathize with this, not trying to argue with you, just for the sake of accuracy: there are no pictures of dead or wounded children in the article. "The only photograph in this story showing bodies is one taken immediately after the 2017 shooting at the Route 91 Harvest festival in Las Vegas. We felt the scene captured in this photo — a field strewn with the dead and wounded beneath the Las Vegas skyline — illustrates why witnesses often liken AR-15 shootings to American war zones."
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 20:38 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Gotta second this. jesus loving christ
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 20:39 |
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The most depressing thing about that poll is that Harris and Manchin are among the best democratic contenders they could think of
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 20:44 |
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The FBI is digging up a section of New York believed to be a mass grave for bodies hidden by the Gambino crime family, who are apparently still active and being prosecuted. Basically all of the greatest hits of stereotypical mafia crimes are surprisingly still going strong in 2023: - Corrupt deals with union bosses to get mafia members no-show union construction jobs. - A ton of guys with baseball bats showing up at your business and taking it over. - A bunch of mafia members showing up to your auto repair shop to bust up all the cars you are working on because you tried to compete with the mob and wouldn't pay protection money. - Murdering snitches and burying them in the woods in upstate New York. - A guy named "Joey Brooklyn" beating someone nearly to death with a hammer. https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1724974796268556630 quote:FBI, police said to be searching for bodies in New York in Gambino crime family investigation
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 20:44 |
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zoux posted:Right but that poll says that ANY democratic candidate would lose if the election was held today. But Democrats continue to overperform in every single post-Dobbs election. Elections are real, polls are estimations, and those estimations aren't matching electoral outcomes and no one can figure out why. Before we squared that circle by saying, well, maybe it's just Biden has some unique problems and not the party, but this poll says the opposite. I mean the polls for abortion and weed in Ohio a month before the election were 58.2% and 57.4% versus the election results of 56.6% and 57%; slightly wrong but not out to lunch. Polls being inaccurate before a billion-dollar year-long electioneering campaign is not really a problem with the polls, its that the special election electioneering campaigns haven't been scaled up for the presidential elections yet.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 20:55 |
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I actually think those polls are pretty brutal for Trump considering he’s run two Presidential campaigns already and most of the rest of them haven’t run any. You’d think that he’s already pretty much maxed out the reach and support he could get, while the others (besides Biden) haven’t.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 21:05 |
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Fork of Unknown Origins posted:I actually think those polls are pretty brutal for Trump considering he’s run two Presidential campaigns already and most of the rest of them haven’t run any. You’d think that he’s already pretty much maxed out the reach and support he could get, while the others (besides Biden) haven’t. I also think part of it is Trump isnt locked in yet so its all hypothetical. Abortion to an extent was the same way and is now kicking the GOP in the teeth as an issue. Trumps not gonna run on anything the normies want and sure as poo poo won't offer anything to anyone under 30. trump also hasnt been out in public outside little snippets of trial poo poo. sure he "truths" insane poo poo all day but the media outside online grognard doesn't cover it. soon its gonna be his face everywhere saying all the insane poo poo with none of the vague "moderate" poo poo from 2016. Dapper_Swindler fucked around with this message at 21:13 on Nov 16, 2023 |
# ? Nov 16, 2023 21:09 |
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Despite all of the bad news about TikTok's content algorithm, it is apparently spreading some enlightening information to people as well.quote:An American woman said she was shocked to discover that Alaska isn't actually an island, calling for an 'overhaul' of the school curriculum https://www.insider.com/woman-shocked-to-discover-alaska-isnt-an-island-2023-11
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 21:13 |
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Do they not have globes anymore? I think that's a serious question I have no idea how much of what we used to have in classroom has been replaced with electronics.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 21:16 |
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Back in my day (2009) we at least had full world maps, showing Alaska’s true location alongside such interesting countries as the Soviet Union and Zaire
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 21:21 |
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Gerund posted:I mean the polls for abortion and weed in Ohio a month before the election were 58.2% and 57.4% versus the election results of 56.6% and 57%; slightly wrong but not out to lunch. https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1725212290570731840 poll nerd i used alot has spoken up on alot of this poo poo.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 21:22 |
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:Back in my day (2009) we at least had full world maps, showing Alaska’s true location alongside such interesting countries as the Soviet Union and Zaire Yeah, this seems like a case of someone who's just not curious about geography, actively ignored as much of it as possible when in school, then never revisited the subject and never needed the information. Alaska's a pretty distinctive shape. Maybe there are school systems where you can get through the entire thing without seeing a single world map, but I'm suspicious this is a "lead a horse to water" situation.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 21:28 |
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socialsecurity posted:Do they not have globes anymore? I think that's a serious question I have no idea how much of what we used to have in classroom has been replaced with electronics. I think with computers it's even easier than ever to show how the (disputed) Round Earth Theory claims that Alaska is part of the American continent, despite no one ever having been there or even flown over it.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 21:29 |
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Nenonen posted:I think with computers it's even easier than ever to show how the (disputed) Round Earth Theory claims that Alaska is part of the American continent, despite no one ever having been there or even flown over it. It is pretty wild that flat earth theory basically died out for several hundred years, but saw a resurgence after we invented satellites, planes, GPS, spaceships, and took actual pictures of Earth from space.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 21:33 |
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We're reaching the endgame of FPTP which is that not only does it incentivize compromising on your ideology to get a winning coalition but eventually it also rewards the side willing to compromise ethics, integrity, morality, reality, and anything else that they could hold their candidates to. FPTP kills countries slowly and inevitably. Republicans are straight up outnumbered nationally. They've had to lower their standards for a while now. But if they can just win one more, they can do away with this problematic "election" business before it matters. Bodyholes fucked around with this message at 21:40 on Nov 16, 2023 |
# ? Nov 16, 2023 21:36 |
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Blue Footed Booby posted:Yeah, this seems like a case of someone who's just not curious about geography, actively ignored as much of it as possible when in school, then never revisited the subject and never needed the information. Alaska's a pretty distinctive shape. Maybe there are school systems where you can get through the entire thing without seeing a single world map, but I'm suspicious this is a "lead a horse to water" situation. Yeah it’s hard to understand sometimes but a lot of people just do not care about things that don’t immediately impact them. Where Alaska is doesn’t really matter to most people. My wife cannot name the Vice President, who is from our state. My kid’s teacher didn’t know West Virginia is it’s own state. I would wager 2/3 of the people in California don’t. At least the part I live in now.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 21:37 |
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Bodyholes posted:I think it's real. If the election were held right now, Biden would lose hard. The problem is young minority voters peeling away. These people don't vote in midterms. They don't necessarily support Republicans, they see Trump as a protest vote that will get Democrats' attention (even though the last couple times it didn't). FYI the thing about young minority voters peeling away is from poll crosstabs (election results don't show Democrats losing like that) and the same poll crosstabs imply that Biden's low support with young minority voters is because they're more conservative. It's not people saying they'll protest vote, it's people saying they'll vote for Trump because Biden is too far left.
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 21:37 |
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# ? May 25, 2024 14:03 |
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We should stop describing Alaska as "not part of the continental United States"
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# ? Nov 16, 2023 21:40 |