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Kalit
Nov 6, 2006

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

Bodyholes posted:

Hey it worked so well in 2000 and 2016 look how much more progressive democrats got. Thank you for the communism, Joe Biden.

I mean, he is further to the left than any president in recent history, probably since LBJ? Granted, that definitely wasn’t predictable until after the election :laffo:

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I AM GRANDO
Aug 20, 2006

Dapper_Swindler posted:

i want to agree. but I could see paxton being a dumb enough rear end in a top hat and thinking him being untouchable in texas means he can do what he wants. and i could see her being arrested on some bullshit mistomener charge based on some bi-line crap. I dont think they will imprison her but who knows.

I still have a couple FYE around here in PA. hell we still have some good malls still.

I miss Coconuts and Strawberries still. I think they were all actually the same store.

BRJurgis
Aug 15, 2007

Well I hear the thunder roll, I feel the cold winds blowing...
But you won't find me there, 'cause I won't go back again...
While you're on smoky roads, I'll be out in the sun...
Where the trees still grow, where they count by one...
I'm no theist, but in all our discussions over these past days- what of the spirit of young Americans, the spirit of democracy? We need to reach people if we can't or don't want to kill them. What appreciation of what this affords us, and what responsibility? To sacrifice force to "the bad guys" only solidifies that slow slide into fascism. People are mad and misguided and used to be dangerous.. There should be a fighting left. He'll there should be a fight for human existence, existing as a human.

*the threat is important. Animals spar rather than fighting to the death. The barbarian being in the walls is a threat that needs leveraging, and not in favor of the right.

BRJurgis fucked around with this message at 05:17 on Dec 12, 2023

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

BRJurgis posted:

I'm no theist, but in all our discussions over these past days- what of the spirit of young Americans, the spirit of democracy? We need to reach people if we can't or don't want to kill them. What appreciation of what this affords us, and what responsibility? To sacrifice force to "the bad guys" only solidifies that slow slide into fascism. People are mad and misguided and used to be dangerous.. There should be a fighting left. He'll there should be a fight for human existence, existing as a human.

I mean on an individual level we all have to find things to plug away at. Existence sucks and we have to work hard at it. I am so lucky I finally found a place I feel like I'm doing some good. I'm throwing myself into public service, working for the state, trying to make sure that I can help as many people as possible get and retain the government benefits they deserve. I'm a drop in the bucket but ya gotta do something. Find an organization that does good work and volunteer for their lobby day. Then you can take the fight directly to the public officials. I used to do that for Planned Parenthood, and while our support basically just fell along party lines, it felt good to get in there and at least force some loving ghouls to look me in the eyes and tell me why 16 y/o girls should be forced into pregnancy.

Be the fight you want to see, essentially. I have no illusions that I'm going to change the world, but god drat if I'm not going to try and make it a slightly better place before I'm gone.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




BRJurgis posted:

I'm no theist, but in all our discussions over these past days- what of the spirit of young Americans, the spirit of democracy? We need to reach people if we can't or don't want to kill them. What appreciation of what this affords us, and what responsibility? To sacrifice force to "the bad guys" only solidifies that slow slide into fascism. People are mad and misguided and used to be dangerous.. There should be a fighting left. He'll there should be a fight for human existence, existing as a human.

*the threat is important. Animals spar rather than fighting to the death. The barbarian being in the walls is a threat that needs leveraging, and not in favor of the right.

So I wrote this several years ago:

The Struggle Concerning Traditions

“Between the origin and the present stands tradition.” So to relate a myth of origin one must relate to traditions. Some of these traditions are pre-capitalist. But capitalism has broken most of them. Broken tradition have become “literary remembrances”. Political romanticism can attempt two things regarding traditions, the first is to preserve the ones that haven't been broken. The second is to attempt to turn literary remembrances into traditions again. This characteristic is why Tillich uses the term “romantic” for these groups. Tradition stems from the various origins discussed previously. They descend from the origin and they are subordinated to the origin. Traditions can be used to attack things that break myths of origin: education, individual autonomy, and departure from historic social norms.

Political romantics must attempt to create a national tradition to use to attack. But this attempt is always profoundly contradictory. An example from now would be the boy recently given an award for distributing flags to all the houses in his neighborhood to make it more patriotic. This isn’t a real tradition it has no real roots in the origins of the nation and people. But they attempt to fabricate it as such so that it might be used to symbolically attack and manipulate.

Building on this idea of national traditions, if a national tradition cannot be built on a racial or social heritage then another root for the tradition is sought. That is where the idea of “National Religious Traditions” orginates. Tillich goes on to argue that the effort to create this religious tradition isn't particularly effective. But what is effective is that in trying to create it they expell the prophetic element from the religion and population at large and replace it with nationalism! “More often this takes the form of indifference to the church's proclamation and passionate devotion to the idea of nation”

Our romantics have been very successful in this. The remainder of the chapter explains why Protestantism is particularly susceptible to this, but that's probably interesting only to me.. In this chapter we also find what i think are the roots of Tillich’s later religious work. One way religion can respond is by its own return to “primal revelation”. When we look at something like fundamentalism we see this fight occuring. Romantics are attempting to cement a literal bible as the revelation allowing the religion to be subsumed fully into the national and capitalist myth. For those of us that are religious we cannot allow this. To allow it is to allow our faith to be subsumed for a fascist end. This is why Tillich wrote his systematics, and it is why right evangelicalism finds them particularly threatening. Tillich attempts to ground Christianity (and reality) in the event of Jesus as the Christ as it’s primal revelation.

So to now to your question what we should do in the fight for tradition is to appeal to the “primal revelation” of our national origin myth. To look with honest and clear eyes at our messy ugly story and not shy away from the awful parts to find what is still true and meaningful in democracy not let the fascists take it.

tecnocrat
Oct 5, 2003
Struggling to keep his sanity.



Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Yeah, I meant "Last nationwide department store to not declare bankruptcy" and not literally the last one in existence.

I'm surprised that Dillard's still has three figure locations.

Although, most of the remaining JCPenny and Dillard's locations look to be in malls - which are themselves living on borrowed time.

JCPenney is owned by Simon Property Group now, owner of a ton of malls. They had a vested interest in keeping them afloat.

Killer robot
Sep 6, 2010

I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!
Pillbug

tecnocrat posted:

JCPenney is owned by Simon Property Group now, owner of a ton of malls. They had a vested interest in keeping them afloat.

Also I was surprised to find out malls are having a pretty good resurgence since the covid peaks, with the caveat that urban malls are doing a lot better than suburban malls. Seems possible that connection to public transportation is a pretty big key to their continued success.

Mid-Life Crisis
Jun 13, 2023

by Fluffdaddy

Google Jeb Bush posted:

it's a small thing in a large, bad MLC post, but not only can I find no evidence of Black Lives Matter protesters being pardoned (and yes, I saw your sleight of hand in "and other leftist causes"), in the attempt I ran across a Reuters article that is somewhat suggestive: apparently there's a satire article occasionally making the rounds in right wing circles as truth that Biden was or was about to pardon a bunch of Black Lives Matter protesters. You didn't source anything, but if this has come across your plate, maybe reconsider your media consumption. also I'd love to see swathes of BLM protesters pardoned at the state and federal level but that's a different issue from the promulgation of lies

One of the nice things about the January 6 prosecutions is that for once there is less of a double standard between right wing and left wing protests. Peaceful left wing protests have a tendency to get crushed by police. Right wing protests do not. Jan 6 was decidedly not peaceful and was intended to overthrow the government, preferably by murdering federal legislators. The law enforcement response was frankly incredibly restrained, both in the place they were able to successfully make a stand (the actual goddamn Senate chamber) and once enough reinforcements showed up to disperse the attackers. I don't really have a problem with that and think it would be nice if left wing protesters that were much less of a physical and institutional threat got the same kid gloves.

The idea that Biden and his DOJ should have backed off on the perpetrators of an attempted coup is laughable and dangerous. The current weakness of the paramilitary right is largely due to the successful medium term response to the Jan 6 attack (and miscellaneous other terrorist chucklefucks like Ammon Bundy), and is a very very good thing.

Is it really less of a double standard if armed protestors can storm the capitol and not fire a single shot? If anything I find that impressive, there wasn’t one crazy in the crowd who actually did full stupid. Relative to massive looting and arson that happened across the country with BLM? Billions in dollars lost, within their own communities to boot. It’s surprisingly impossible to find any objective metric on the subject either way because it’s just narratives all around. Effectively, pardons vs not pursuing punishments might win you an argument in details, but not results.

ANY protest is inherently not peaceful. That’s such an unfair argument to make. There is no need for protest if writing a letter was sufficient. A line can get drawn between violence or not and that’s clearly one that can be drawn based upon what actually happened.

Either way. These people don’t deserve to be punished either way. Violent protest is all they have left given our dysfunctional system. More evidence that there’s no options left to the people because our representative system is fundamentally broken.

Mid-Life Crisis fucked around with this message at 06:27 on Dec 12, 2023

alf_pogs
Feb 15, 2012


Mid-Life Crisis posted:

there wasn’t one crazy in the crowd who actually did full stupid.

i dunno Brian Sicknick and his family might disagree

Trazz
Jun 11, 2008

Mid-Life Crisis posted:

Is it really less of a double standard if armed protestors can storm the capitol and not fire a single shot? If anything I find that impressive, there wasn’t one crazy in the crowd who actually did full stupid. Relative to massive looting and arson that happened across the country with BLM? Billions in dollars lost, within their own communities to boot. It’s surprisingly impossible to find any objective metric on the subject either way because it’s just narratives all around. Effectively, pardons vs not pursuing punishments might win you an argument in details, but not results.

ANY protest is inherently not peaceful. That’s such an unfair argument to make. There is no need for protest if writing a letter was sufficient. A line can get drawn between violence or not and that’s clearly one that can be drawn based upon what actually happened.

Either way. These people don’t deserve to be punished either way. Violent protest is all they have left given our dysfunctional system. More evidence that there’s no options left to the people because our representative system is fundamentally broken.

I'm confused, what does BLM have to do with J6? Are you saying that the Democrats organized it?

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
Tasing yourself in the balls so hard you die of a heart attack is pretty stupid

Lemming
Apr 21, 2008

Mid-Life Crisis posted:

Is it really less of a double standard if armed protestors can storm the capitol and not fire a single shot? If anything I find that impressive, there wasn’t one crazy in the crowd who actually did full stupid. Relative to massive looting and arson that happened across the country with BLM? Billions in dollars lost, within their own communities to boot. It’s surprisingly impossible to find any objective metric on the subject either way because it’s just narratives all around. Effectively, pardons vs not pursuing punishments might win you an argument in details, but not results.

ANY protest is inherently not peaceful. That’s such an unfair argument to make. There is no need for protest if writing a letter was sufficient. A line can get drawn between violence or not and that’s clearly one that can be drawn based upon what actually happened.

Either way. These people don’t deserve to be punished either way. Violent protest is all they have left given our dysfunctional system. More evidence that there’s no options left to the people because our representative system is fundamentally broken.

You know the J6 protestors stormed the capital because Trump got fewer votes but they wanted him to be president anyway, right? This is the worst possible example I can think of if you're trying to say the system is so hosed they had no other choice

Professor Beetus
Apr 12, 2007

They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

Mid-Life Crisis posted:

Is it really less of a double standard if armed protestors can storm the capitol and not fire a single shot? If anything I find that impressive, there wasn’t one crazy in the crowd who actually did full stupid. Relative to massive looting and arson that happened across the country with BLM? Billions in dollars lost, within their own communities to boot. It’s surprisingly impossible to find any objective metric on the subject either way because it’s just narratives all around. Effectively, pardons vs not pursuing punishments might win you an argument in details, but not results.

ANY protest is inherently not peaceful. That’s such an unfair argument to make. There is no need for protest if writing a letter was sufficient. A line can get drawn between violence or not and that’s clearly one that can be drawn based upon what actually happened.

Either way. These people don’t deserve to be punished either way. Violent protest is all they have left given our dysfunctional system. More evidence that there’s no options left to the people because our representative system is fundamentally broken.

God drat why are all the dogs in my neighborhood barking like crazy

Killer robot
Sep 6, 2010

I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!
Pillbug

Mid-Life Crisis posted:

Is it really less of a double standard if armed protestors can storm the capitol and not fire a single shot? If anything I find that impressive, there wasn’t one crazy in the crowd who actually did full stupid. Relative to massive looting and arson that happened across the country with BLM? Billions in dollars lost, within their own communities to boot. It’s surprisingly impossible to find any objective metric on the subject either way because it’s just narratives all around. Effectively, pardons vs not pursuing punishments might win you an argument in details, but not results.


Just to be clear here, you're talking about the protests with tens of thousands of arrests, and hundreds of serious charges alone just based on a quick search? Hundreds of federal arrests/charges besides, despite them nearly all being things under state jurisdiction?

Just to be extra clear, are you talking about the protests where most of the arrests for arson and other serious crimes were right-wing boogaloo boys and other white surburbanites that were far from their own communities?

Those protests, right?

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Mid-Life Crisis posted:

ANY protest is inherently not peaceful. That’s such an unfair argument to make. There is no need for protest if writing a letter was sufficient. A line can get drawn between violence or not and that’s clearly one that can be drawn based upon what actually happened.

“Violence and revolution are usually ruled out as permissible instruments of social change on a priori grounds. The middle classes and the rational moralists, who have a natural abhorrence of violence, may be right in their general thesis; but they are wrong in their assumption that violence is intrinsically immoral. Nothing is intrinsically immoral except ill-will and nothing intrinsically good except goodwill.”

“The one error is the belief that violence is a natural and inevitable expression of ill-will, and non- violence of goodwill, and that violence is therefore intrinsically evil and non-violence intrinsically good. While such a proposition has a certain measure of validity, or at least of plausibility, it is certainly not universally valid. It is less valid in inter-group relations than in individual relations, if our assumption is correct that the achievement of harmony and justice between groups requires a measure of coercion, which is not necessary in the most intimate and the most imaginative individual relations. Once we admit the factor of coercion as ethically justified, though we concede that it is always morally dangerous, we cannot draw any absolute line of demarcation between violent and nonviolent coercion. We may argue that the immediate consequences of violence are such that they frustrate the ultimate purpose by which it is justified. If that is true, it is certainly not self-evident; and violence can therefore not be ruled out on a priori grounds. It is all the more difficult to do this if we consider that the immediate consequences of violence cannot be differentiated as sharply from those of non-violence, as is sometimes supposed. The difference between them is not an absolute one, even though there may be important distinctions, which must be carefully weighed. Gandhi's boycott of British cotton results in the undernourishment of children in Manchester, and the blockade of the Allies in war-time caused the death of German children. It is impossible to coerce a group without damaging both life and property and without imperiling the interests of the innocent with those of the guilty. Those are factors which are involved in the intricacies of group relations; and they make it impossible to transfer an ethic of personal relations uncritically to the field of inter- group relations.”

“The differences between proletarian and middle-class morality are on the whole differences between men who regard themselves as primarily individuals and those who feel themselves primarily members of a social group. The latter will emphasise liberty, respect for individual life, the rights of property and the moral values of mutual trust and unselfishness. The former will emphasise loyalty to the group and the need of its solidarity, they will subject the rights of property to the total social welfare, will abrogate the values of freedom for the attainment of their most cherished social goal and will believe that conflicts of interest between groups can be resolved, not by accommodation but by struggle. The middle class tries to make the canons of individual morality authoritative for all social relations. It is shocked by the moral cynicism, the tendency toward violence and indifference toward individual freedom of the proletarian. Inasfar as this represents an honest effort to make the ideals of personal morality norms for the conduct of human groups, it is a legitimate moral attitude which must never be completely abandoned. Inasfar as it represents the illusions and deceptions of middle-class people, who never conform their own group conduct to their individual ideals, it deserves the cynical reaction of the proletarian. The illusory element must be admitted to be very large. The middle classes believe in freedom, but deny freedom when its exercise imperils their position in society; they profess a morality of love and unselfishness but do not achieve an unselfish group attitude toward a less privileged group; they claim to abhor violence and yet use it both in international conflict and in the social crises in which their interests are imperiled; they want mutuality of interest between classes rather than a class struggle but the mutuality must not be so complete as to destroy all their special privileges.
The proletarian on the other hand is not enough of an individual, in the attainments of his own cultural life and in the conditions of his social life, to be strongly moved by the canons of individual morality. He is most conscious of the reality of group behavior. He is not only more completely immersed in his own group than the more privileged classes, but he feels the effect of the behavior of other groups upon his life more definitely than do the members of privileged classes. His moral attitudes are determined by the moral behavior of groups rather than by the moral behavior of individuals. He discounts the latter not only because he is himself not an individual, as more privileged persons are, but because he has not found individual morality qualifying the dominant greed and lust to power of privileged groups to any appreciable degree. He has come to the conclusion that the hope of achieving a moral group life results in illusion. The conflict between proletarian and middle-class morality is thus a contest between hypocrisy and brutality, and between sentimentality and cynicism. The limitations of the one tend to accentuate the limitations of the other. The full import of that conflict is revealed in Trotsky's words: "As for us, we were never concerned with the Kantian priestly and vegetarian-Quaker prattle about the 'sacredness of human life.' We were revolutionaries in opposition and remain revolutionaries in power. To make the individual sacred we must destroy the social order which crucifies him and this problem can only be solved by blood and iron."

Reinhold Niebuhr -Moral Man and Immoral Society

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

Pictured: Poster prepares to celebrate Holy Communion (probablY)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund
I appreciate the quoting Bar Ran Dun. But other than the distinction between the classes, which is an argument that seems a bit open to discussion, surely no one is so utterly naive as to believe in the utility or morality of none violence?

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Josef bugman posted:

I appreciate the quoting Bar Ran Dun. But other than the distinction between the classes, which is an argument that seems a bit open to discussion, surely no one is so utterly naive as to believe in the utility or morality of none violence?

Josef that’s: Moral Man and Immoral Society. You should do some looking into how that work was used and why it’s rather an important work.

Anyway the point. The libertarian take on violence is childish. And to MLC’s way of thinking NO a line cannot be drawn between violence or not (as Niebuhr lays out rather well.)

I just want to make it clear here, MLC conflated BLM and Jan 6 (which is a stunningly lovely thing to do) and also then pinned that turd on top of garbage libertarian thinking about violence and coercion that has been refuted thoroughly almost a hundred years ago.

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

Mid-Life Crisis posted:

Is it really less of a double standard if armed protestors can storm the capitol and not fire a single shot? If anything I find that impressive, there wasn’t one crazy in the crowd who actually did full stupid. Relative to massive looting and arson that happened across the country with BLM? Billions in dollars lost, within their own communities to boot.

Bark bark bark bark woof woof

/

Ok to add more substance to this the point is to ask yourself how strongly you even want to stick behind this comparison. Perhaps there are significant differences between the social responses of "entire communities that have spent their entire lives under police terror and legal nonaccountability that permits them to operate like a lethal mob (something that was real)" and "entitled fascists upset because their movement figurehead was being ejected from office, supposedly because the election was stolen (something that was not real)"

Staluigi fucked around with this message at 13:01 on Dec 12, 2023

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

Pictured: Poster prepares to celebrate Holy Communion (probablY)

This avatar made possible by a gift from the Religionthread Posters Relief Fund

Bar Ran Dun posted:

Josef that’s: Moral Man and Immoral Society. You should do some looking into how that work was used and why it’s rather an important work.

Anyway the point. The libertarian take on violence is childish. And to MLC’s way of thinking NO a line cannot be drawn between violence or not (as Niebuhr lays out rather well.)

I just want to make it clear here, MLC conflated BLM and Jan 6 (which is a stunningly lovely thing to do) and also then pinned that turd on top of garbage libertarian thinking about violence and coercion that has been refuted thoroughly almost a hundred years ago.

I am hoping to get it for Christmas so will try and give it a read.

I don't think there is much need to look at MLC's points, but I wanted to gesture at the wider themes raised by Niebuhr. Because that bit seems a bit more interesting. But that is a fair reading, I do apologise for interrupting.

Misunderstood
Jan 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy
This came out last week, but I didn't hear about it until Paul Krugman talked about it in his column today. The claims of giant mass retail theft necessitating the closure of stores were largely bullshit.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/08/business/organized-shoplifting-retail-crime-theft-retraction.html

NYT posted:

A national lobbying group has retracted its startling estimate that “organized retail crime” was responsible for nearly half the $94.5 billion in store merchandise that disappeared in 2021, a figure that helped amplify claims that the United States was experiencing a nationwide wave of shoplifting.

The group, the National Retail Federation, edited that claim last week from a widely cited report issued in April, after the trade publication Retail Dive revealed that faulty data had been used to arrive at the inaccurate figure.

The retraction comes as retail chains like Target continue to claim that they are the victims of large shoplifting operations that have cut into profits, forcing them to close stores or inconvenience customers by locking products away.

The claims have been fueled by widely shared videos of a few instances of brazen shoplifters, including images of masked groups smashing windows and grabbing high-end purses and cellphones. But the data show this impression of rampant criminality was a mirage.

In fact, retail theft has been lower this year in most of the country than it was a few years ago, according to police data. Some exceptions, including New York City, exist. But in most major cities, shoplifting incidents have fallen 7 percent since 2019.

Organized retail theft DOES happen, and can probably be pretty shocking when it does, but is not a major issue considering its rarity. It hasn't led to store closures, it's just been used to justify them. But this bogus story has been cited by the usual suspects who want to stir up fears and make the case that the economy is bad and that crime is out of control.

And, oops - turns out it was just some bullshit that bolstered right wing narratives, reported widely in the press, with a retraction nobody heard. Sure seems to happen a lot.

Misunderstood fucked around with this message at 14:10 on Dec 12, 2023

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



There was a lot of legitimate skepticism of the idea that there was suddenly this massive increase in retail theft all of a sudden, but the mainstream media ate it up.

The Top G
Jul 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy

alf_pogs posted:

i dunno Brian Sicknick and his family might disagree

Was this the cop that was killed by J6 protestors?

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
With the unexpectedly large increase in wage gains and lower unemployment last month, people were worried that the next inflation report might come in hot as well.

Core CPI is as expected, headline CPI is slightly higher than expected, but within the estimate.

Both very good news in terms of the trendline for prices and real wages.

In mixed news, inflation would have decreased even more if it wasn't for housing costs.

There was actually slight deflation in several major categories - including energy, gasoline, clothing, and new cars.

However, this was offset by a higher than expected increase in housing costs and used car prices.

Combined with the hotter than expected employment and real income figures from last week, it seems likely that the Fed will continue its pause on rate increases, but makes it less likely we will see any rate decreases in 2024.

Good News:

- Inflation is basically 0% for most categories.
- Some sectors are experiencing very minor deflation.
- Real wages are up again for another month in a row.
- Even though real wages and employment are up it isn't driving inflation overall up with it.

Bad News:

- Housing prices continue to rise above the overall inflation rate and aren't showing much sign of reversing.

People had been predicting that housing prices would start to drop due to interest rate increases, but so far they seem to have just slowed a little. Slowing down is good, but it still is solidly outside of the overall inflation rate. Housing currently makes up roughly 70% of all increase in CPI over the last year, meaning that nearly 3/4 of current cost of living increases are related to housing.

Sticky inflation in housing and food might make it more difficult to reduce the last 1.2% of inflation to get to the Fed's goal of 2% than it was to reduce the previous 6% inflation.

- Car insurance costs have risen about 19% over the last year.

This is the largest single percentage increase of any sector. Car insurance makes up a relatively small amount of the average American's spending, so it isn't driving inflation too much on its own despite the large increase. It is also following a huge decrease from 2020 to 2022 following the pandemic.

This increase is due primarily to car insurance rates having a 6-month to 1-year lag because of when they are reappraised, more car crashes, and higher premiums being charged by insurers.

https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1734566354538156091

quote:

From Jason Schenker at Prestige Economics:

“The November CPI showed only modest progress in easing inflation. While it looks like Fed policy is working, inflation is nowhere near the Fed’s 2% target...Elevated inflation could keep pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates high for an extended period of time...The reduced chance of near-term Fed rate cuts threatens to send the dollar higher and potentially weigh on equity prices and bond prices while sending bond yields higher.”

quote:

Shelter costs continue to pressure the CPI index upward. It’s the largest component of the basket. Economists have been in a waiting game, with expectations that this index will start to cool and drive overall CPI down -- but it’s not happening yet.

quote:

Longer-term perspective from the BLS on some of the sub-indexes of CPI core:

“The index for all items less food and energy rose 4.0 percent over the past 12 months. The shelter index increased 6.5 percent over the last year, accounting for nearly 70 percent of the total increase in the all items less food and energy index. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+19.2 percent), recreation (+2.5 percent), personal care (+5.2 percent), and new vehicles (+1.3 percent).”

quote:

Goods disinflation continues: Ex-food and -energy, commodity prices dropped 0.3%.

quote:

Here’s Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets:

“There is nothing within the details that will immediately impact the Fed’s thinking. If anything, the super-core figures reinforce the need for a hawkish pause and offset calls for more dramatic cuts signaled via the 2024 dots.

“Since the data, we’ve seen a modest pullback but yields remain lower on the day. From here, the market will continue to digest the implications for monetary policy as this afternoon’s 30-year auction represents the next supply hurdle for US rates.”

Misunderstood
Jan 19, 2023

by Fluffdaddy
Dammit Leon, I came here to post that. I guess it’s kind of a lot of work to share an article like that and you did a better summary than I would have, so, I guess thanks actually.

I think the higher inflation in housing costs might be driving consumer sentiment downward. Look at it this way: yes, in aggregate, incomes rise to offset the increased rent. But rent is the floor. If you make less than rent, you’re on borrowed time, at least if you’re one of the 60-70% of Americans with no significant savings.

That means that if you DID find yourself out of work, you could be screwed pretty fast. The UK has high housing inflation but I’m not sure public sentiment hasn’t begun to fall a bit below market indicators there as well, based on the graphs that were posted last week. France and Germany, which had dead-on sentiment, have cheap-rear end rents by Anglosphere standards. (A 1 BR is about $700 in Paris and $1000 in Berlin.) It definitely makes things feel more precarious.

The NYT does say that the official rate of housing inflation may be artificially high, for a few reasons. Looking at Zillow’s index, which is more responsive, rental prices in my state are down 10% since August ‘22 and down about 4% for the year.

Just wanted to give a shout out to this loving idiot Leon quoted:

“Jason Schenker at Prestige Economics” posted:


“The November CPI showed only modest progress in easing inflation. While it looks like Fed policy is working, inflation is nowhere near the Fed’s 2% target...
I can’t imagine you can work in finance journalism and be this loving ignorant so I figure he just has to be a major inflation hawk trying to manipulate the data to make his case.

Inflation in both October and November was 0.1% which means, even if that’s rounding down 0.14%, it’s BELOW TARGET. Inflation was falling but still at 7% last November, which means the YOY number is higher than current inflation. YOY didn’t fall below 4% until last May. In the spring/early summer YOY should be falling pretty close to 2%.

Bodyholes
Jun 30, 2005

The Inflation Reduction Act is the best law in 40 years. I am still baffled some Republicans signed on to it, but selling the Green New Deal as a form of "Green Nationalism" has some crossover appeal. Probably also that an old white guy is pushing it instead of Obama. Will it win any votes from Trumpers? Probably not.

They should pass another one for housing. Trillion dollar social housing bill.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Bodyholes posted:

The Inflation Reduction Act is the best law in 40 years. I am still baffled some Republicans signed on to it, but selling the Green New Deal as a form of "Green Nationalism" has some crossover appeal. Probably also that an old white guy is pushing it instead of Obama. Will it win any votes from Trumpers? Probably not.

They should pass another one for housing. Trillion dollar social housing bill.

Too bad the setbacks in NY helped lose the House to the GOP...

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Bodyholes posted:

The Inflation Reduction Act is the best law in 40 years. I am still baffled some Republicans signed on to it, but selling the Green New Deal as a form of "Green Nationalism" has some crossover appeal. Probably also that an old white guy is pushing it instead of Obama. Will it win any votes from Trumpers? Probably not.

They should pass another one for housing. Trillion dollar social housing bill.

No Republicans voted for the IRA in the House or Senate.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
House Republicans are having a press conference today to announce that they are moving forward with a vote for an official impeachment inquiry tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1734593182669635706

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

House Republicans are having a press conference today to announce that they are moving forward with a vote for an official impeachment inquiry tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1734593182669635706

I wonder if they’re dumb enough to do this when they don’t have the votes.

BougieBitch
Oct 2, 2013

Basic as hell

Staluigi posted:

Bark bark bark bark woof woof

/

Ok to add more substance to this the point is to ask yourself how strongly you even want to stick behind this comparison. Perhaps there are significant differences between the social responses of "entire communities that have spent their entire lives under police terror and legal nonaccountability that permits them to operate like a lethal mob (something that was real)" and "entitled fascists upset because their movement figurehead was being ejected from office, supposedly because the election was stolen (something that was not real)"

Also, as long as we are at it, weren't there actual goddamn explosives planted around DC that day by one or more of the participants? Broken windows are whatever, you have insurance for a reason, but if someone sets off a goddamn bomb that is a whole other ball game in terms of lethality and potential damage

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Fork of Unknown Origins posted:

I wonder if they’re dumb enough to do this when they don’t have the votes.

Are we sure they don't have the votes?

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

Fork of Unknown Origins posted:

I wonder if they’re dumb enough to do this when they don’t have the votes.

This isn't a vote to impeach, this is a vote to begin the investigation that will lead to the impeachment vote later. It may attract more votes than the actual "send all the bullshit we gathered to die in the Senate controlled by the opposing party" vote

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



They probably have the votes, from what I have read, but it’s because they are just authorizing the committee

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003
Is anyone else baffled by the media coverage of the Ivy League Presidents. Like the collective memory of our national media that the Republican's actually care about anti-semitism and letting them score points for their grandstanding?

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

Eric Cantonese posted:

Are we sure they don't have the votes?

Not sure at all which is why I’m wondering if they’d have the vote if they didn’t know it’ll pass.

They can only have like 2 no votes from their side, right?

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Mooseontheloose posted:

Is anyone else baffled by the media coverage of the Ivy League Presidents. Like the collective memory of our national media that the Republican's actually care about anti-semitism and letting them score points for their grandstanding?

No, only because what happens on college campuses seems to be the #1 topic of every oped columnist for the last 10 years.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
WTF is up with this thread title?

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Mooseontheloose posted:

Is anyone else baffled by the media coverage of the Ivy League Presidents. Like the collective memory of our national media that the Republican's actually care about anti-semitism and letting them score points for their grandstanding?

MIT isn't in the Ivy League.
:goonsay:

In all seriousness, Harvard's and UPenn's presidents walked into an obvious trap and, instead of recognizing that they were not in a good faith classroom setting, they jumped into the spike pit with both feet. It was that bad and it gave a ton of oxygen to something that could have puttered out well.

All the gaffes were short. They were easily parsed and turned into sharable clips. They involve people being targeted by very rich and politically active people like Bill Ackman.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

Charlz Guybon posted:

WTF is up with this thread title?

The end point of a conversation that started when the FDA approved a treatment for sickle-cell anemia via CRISPR gene editing

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FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



The whole thing was a setup, yes. The right used this whole idea that antisemitism is just rampant on every college campus as an excuse to accuse these major college presidents of allowing it. There was no way for them to ‘win’ the hearing.

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