(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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jaete posted:.... I seem to remember that that lad is a Russian mouthpiece, he's been linked before.
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Dec 13, 2023 09:26
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jaete posted:"In priority frontline sectors, we have the following ratio: one of our drones to five or seven enemy drones", says some Ukrainian army guy I can't remember exactly the date, but it was in the last week I'm pretty sure. Of course that was recon drones. I'm not sure what the Shaheed and loitering munition situation is like.
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Dec 13, 2023 09:46
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Russia is rapidly scaling up drone production, several giant factories going up at this very moment, while established production lines are already cranking up consistent numbers. The drone pilot course is being rolled into 10th grade curriculum to prepare kids for the neverending war. Similar to what's going on in Ukraine atm
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Dec 13, 2023 13:53
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Someone asked earlier for a brief summary of the three-part "Russia Contingency" podcast. I'll continue to recommend subscribing--even if only for a month--as the conversation goes into a lot of interesting details, but here are the salient points which have stuck with me a week after listening:
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Dec 13, 2023 14:58
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Bremen posted:I'm particularly amused because before this war everyone was terrified of Russian cyberwarfare and talking about how it could be used to paralyze their opponents. That's aged about as well as the talk about Russia having the second strongest army in the world. Let's not write it off completely. They've nuked the telcom systems in Ukraine multiple times, including at the launch of the invasion. This absolutely broke down communications at a critical time and lead to advantages for the Russian military. They've recently taken down the mobile networks as well, although wired lines are still working. Ukrainian military and civilian resistance is absolutely dependent to some extent on the mobile networks. One thing I haven't read about is their hacking leading to actual physical destructions (e.g., Stuxnet), but I doubt that info would be released publicly anyway. Most everything I have read about was eventually resolved by sending someone into the raptor paddock to manually reboot the system.
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Dec 13, 2023 15:54
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ummel posted:One thing I haven't read about is their hacking leading to actual physical destructions (e.g., Stuxnet), but I doubt that info would be released publicly anyway. Most everything I have read about was eventually resolved by sending someone into the raptor paddock to manually reboot the system. Wasn't that only possible because it targeted centrifuge control systems? I imagine most computers are not embedded in giant spinning robots.
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Dec 13, 2023 16:09
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ummel posted:Let's not write it off completely. They've nuked the telcom systems in Ukraine multiple times, including at the launch of the invasion. This absolutely broke down communications at a critical time and lead to advantages for the Russian military. They've recently taken down the mobile networks as well, although wired lines are still working. Ukrainian military and civilian resistance is absolutely dependent to some extent on the mobile networks. This is part of why Starlink has been so useful to Ukraine - it's a telecoms infrastructure ran out of the US (so much harder to infiltrate) with it's infrastructure based in space (so impossible to destroy without escalating massively). Even if it's not everywhere, the mere existence of a backup/alternative option reduces the impact of Russian attacks.
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Dec 13, 2023 16:15
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Russia caused several major infrastructure failures in 2021, but by the time of the re-invasion in February 2022 they had both hardened existing infrastructure and migrated a lot of their critical systems to Azure and AWS, which made it much harder cripple Ukraine because if something got breached (and it did), Ukraine could just destroy the running instances of whatever, re-hydrate from backups, and rotate all access keys. Russia has, apparently, penetrated a few of Ukraine's command and control apps a few times, but it's architected in such a way that people in the field (whose devices were compromised) can't see much beyond their immediate needs, so the damage of such breaches tends to be local.
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Dec 13, 2023 16:35
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Nitrox posted:Russia is rapidly scaling up drone production, several giant factories going up at this very moment, while established production lines are already cranking up consistent numbers. The drone pilot course is being rolled into 10th grade curriculum to prepare kids for the neverending war. Similar to what's going on in Ukraine atm All those old people saying that playing video games wouldn't amount to anything were wrong. They just didn't know that real lives would be at stake.
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Dec 13, 2023 17:18
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Fuschia tude posted:Wasn't that only possible because it targeted centrifuge control systems? I imagine most computers are not embedded in giant spinning robots. But enough are embedded in very important physical systems. One of the persistent (albeit apparently not as realistic now?) concerns in the US is local infrastructure organizations IT being poorly run because no one has had a reason to care all that much, until someone points out a drinking water treatment plant with remote access open to the Internet. "OOPS all chlorine" and so forth. There's a LOT of industrial control software with relatively poor (or completely absent!) security, that an attacker could pivot to. Stuxnet was actually rather unique in a few ways. The facility was air gapped, so the virus was meant to reproduce into local removable media without attempting to activate. Once within the facility and active, the virus hosed with the centrifuges just enough to block progress, without making it clear that there was something wrong with the control systems. It had to be perfect at deployment because there was no second chance, and there was no real guarantee it would run.
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Dec 13, 2023 18:15
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Charlz Guybon posted:If true, that seems impactful In reality, nothing impactful happened Cpt_Obvious posted:Cross posting: Dont bring obvious Russian-biased trash here Just Another Lurker posted:I seem to remember that that lad is a Russian mouthpiece, he's been linked before. Nope, President of Kyiv School of Economics and a guy in Andriy Yermak orbit is not a Russian mouthpiece. I recall him having some terrible takes (fitting for a guy who failed as minister of economy) and being another dumb twitter guy in general. Don't see anything scandalous with the linked thread but I'd rather read experts on the topic who can properly evaluate based on sources (though ramped up drone supply on Russian side has been reported in many places). fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 18:43 on Dec 13, 2023 |
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Dec 13, 2023 18:33
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fatherboxx posted:.. Apologies, i wasn't able to tell the difference with that man. 
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Dec 13, 2023 18:55
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Volmarias posted:Once within the facility and active, the virus hosed with the centrifuges just enough Something needs to be made clear here. To do this they had to model the systems of facility completely and accurately enough to be able to fake normal conditions while they were trashing the centrifuges.
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Dec 13, 2023 19:09
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Something needs to be made clear here. To do this they had to model the systems of facility completely and accurately enough to be able to fake normal conditions while they were trashing the centrifuges. Yeah, the whole thing was exceptionally impressive from both a technical and a practical standpoint, and I encourage anyone who hasn't read about it to do so, it's absolutely fascinating.
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Dec 13, 2023 20:11
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Volmarias posted:Yeah, the whole thing was exceptionally impressive from both a technical and a practical standpoint, and I encourage anyone who hasn't read about it to do so, it's absolutely fascinating. yeah, truly incredible stuff
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Dec 13, 2023 21:38
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I've seen this video posted recently, and even if you ignore commentary, text on screen and whatever explanation given, the footage itself speaks volumes of yet another despicable poo poo that's happening on the ground in the trenches. It shows what appears to be Russian soldiers, using unarmed people as literal human shields. I don't have link to unedited footage, sorry about Instagram https://www.instagram.com/reel/C0zhYViidCE/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA== IK NOTE:  , combat footage (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Somebody fucked around with this message at 07:39 on Dec 14, 2023 |
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Dec 13, 2023 22:17
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Ynglaur posted:
Why would that be the case? Now that Prigozhin is gone Russia seems even less able or interested in changing failing tactics. A big reason why there hasn't many major offensive actions by Ukraine is because it's easier to pick off Russia's waves of poorly organized troops with cheap drones.
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Dec 13, 2023 22:54
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SaTaMaS posted:Why would that be the case? Now that Prigozhin is gone Russia seems even less able or interested in changing failing tactics. A big reason why there hasn't many major offensive actions by Ukraine is because it's easier to pick off Russia's waves of poorly organized troops with cheap drones. How do you come to these conclusions, if I may ask? I don't think that cheap drones are a replacement to hundreds of thousands of 155mm artillery shells that Ukraine needs.
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Dec 13, 2023 23:02
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87% of Russian prewar ground forces have been destroyed along with 2/3rds of their tanks. https://twitter.com/PigLazer/status/1734999179334705295?s=20
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Dec 14, 2023 01:33
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NMS tag that stuff.
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Dec 14, 2023 01:48
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Charlz Guybon posted:87% of Russian prewar ground forces have been destroyed along with 2/3rds of their tanks. Don't think that most people would have predicted that russia, the nation where their big thing was being the "look at how immense and inexhaustible our army is, look at all our tanks etc" big boy on the block, was going to grind the whole thing to dust in prolonged unwinnable warfare with, of all countries, Ukraine
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Dec 14, 2023 01:49
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Nenonen posted:How do you come to these conclusions, if I may ask? I don't think that cheap drones are a replacement to hundreds of thousands of 155mm artillery shells that Ukraine needs. From the latest news? https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-12-2023 Certainly Ukraine is going to need to take more risks if they want to gain ground, but they have managed to devastate the Russian military with a more risk-averse approach, Ukraine is better at defending against Russian drones than Russia is at defending against Ukrainian drones, and there's no reason to think Ukraine can't sit back and defend against waves of lower and lower capability troops until Russia is finally exhausted, and that could take most of 2024 .
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Dec 14, 2023 02:02
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SaTaMaS posted:From the latest news? I think you are underestimating how badly Ukraine's offensive potential has been degraded, and what it takes to engage in offensive operations at operational scales. I also think you're underestimatimg how much Russia can regenerate combat power. Russia is dramatically out producing Europe when it comes to artillery ammunition, and Ukraine when it comes to FPVs.
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Dec 14, 2023 02:14
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Ynglaur posted:I think you are underestimating how badly Ukraine's offensive potential has been degraded, and what it takes to engage in offensive operations at operational scales. I also think you're underestimatimg how much Russia can regenerate combat power. Russia is dramatically out producing Europe when it comes to artillery ammunition, and Ukraine when it comes to FPVs. Russia's tactics are so bad that it doesn't seem to matter.
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Dec 14, 2023 02:54
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It seems to matter to the Ukrainian soldiers and the families who mourn them?
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Dec 14, 2023 02:56
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SaTaMaS posted:Russia's tactics are so bad that it doesn't seem to matter. their offensive tactics leave something to be desired, but their "lay multiple km-deep minefields and park artillery behind them" tactics are pretty effective
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Dec 14, 2023 03:10
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SaTaMaS posted:Russia's tactics are so bad that it doesn't seem to matter. That's wild since they control half of Ukraine and there's no indication Ukraine had any ability to change that.
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Dec 14, 2023 03:35
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:their offensive tactics leave something to be desired, but their "lay multiple km-deep minefields and park artillery behind them" tactics are pretty effective Russia could adopt a defensive posture and do very well tactically but they seem determined to send waves of poorly trained troops at Ukrainian defenses for minimal gains, so why not let them keep doing that until they physically can't, and then resume the offensive.
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Dec 14, 2023 04:03
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SaTaMaS posted:Russia could adopt a defensive posture and do very well tactically but they seem determined to send waves of poorly trained troops at Ukrainian defenses for minimal gains, so why not let them keep doing that until they physically can't, and then resume the offensive. Because the casualty ratios aren't as good as you think they are to suggest this is viable in the long term.
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Dec 14, 2023 04:18
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SaTaMaS posted:Russia's tactics are so bad that it doesn't seem to matter. Tactics are the least important aspect of war
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Dec 14, 2023 04:18
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Staluigi posted:Don't think that most people would have predicted that russia, the nation where their big thing was being the "look at how immense and inexhaustible our army is, look at all our tanks etc" big boy on the block, was going to grind the whole thing to dust in prolonged unwinnable warfare with, of all countries, Ukraine this report is almost certainly bullshit.
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Dec 14, 2023 04:52
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Charlz Guybon posted:87% of Russian prewar ground forces have been destroyed along with 2/3rds of their tanks. "Lost" is carrying a lot of meanings there. I am finding it hard to be optimistic for Ukraine these days given how political developments in the US are affecting funding for Ukraine. punishedkissinger posted:That's wild since they control half of Ukraine and there's no indication Ukraine had any ability to change that. Not that it's a happy number and it could change over time, but I thought it was closer to 20%. Eric Cantonese fucked around with this message at 05:21 on Dec 14, 2023 |
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Dec 14, 2023 05:19
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MikeC posted:Because the casualty ratios aren't as good as you think they are to suggest this is viable in the long term. Also Ukraine can't afford to "wait russia out". A large amount of their labour force is fighting and dying on the fronts, a lot of their most productive lands are being occupied, and their economy is on a war footing and really just keeping together from aid. Like they've achieved some amazing victories against russia, but to keep going how they currently are relies on a lot of outside aid. Russia army may be garbage and what not, but they still have a pretty good manufacturing sector and can unfortunately still make a lot of dumb munitions. Still have a lot of people they can recruit into the army which may, and probably will gently caress them over quite a bit in the long term, but putin seems very unconcerned about long term thinking so that's whatever as far as this war goes.
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Dec 14, 2023 05:30
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How many consecutive months (years?) of reports claiming Russia is on the verge of collapse can you read before you start to get suspicious?
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Dec 14, 2023 05:30
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punishedkissinger posted:How many consecutive months (years?) of reports claiming Russia is on the verge of collapse can you read before you start to get suspicious? Has there ever actually been a report that Russia "is on the verge of collapse"?
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Dec 14, 2023 05:50
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Charliegrs posted:Has there ever actually been a report that Russia "is on the verge of collapse"? I suppose a lot of excitement from non-serious people were getting carried away with how much better Ukraine has fared than anyone thought it could back in 2022. It's hard for people in the west to appreciate fully how much it would take to displace a leader like Putin, however. Russia is sustaining casualties and material losses that would lead to a lot of electoral misfortunes in Western Europe and the US.
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Dec 14, 2023 05:55
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Charliegrs posted:Has there ever actually been a report that Russia "is on the verge of collapse"? Plenty if you Google just that. Plenty of speculatory pieces but also some around the Wagner mutiny that seemed legitimate. Here's one where a Kremlin spokesman said they were on the brink of economic collapse. https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-collapse-putin-moscow-gdp-outlook-ukraine-war-sanctions-2023-11
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Dec 14, 2023 06:00
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Also on "was there reporting on russia may collapse", at one point the head of wagner was marching towards Moscow, which was like at that point people speculating a bit seems... fair, as like WTF. But before that there was a lot of speculation about how much the oligarchs would take when they had assets being sized and the russian economy maybe collapsing- and what not. Which was less realistic as, well putins pretty good at getting rid of anyone he thinks could challenge him in anyway, but yeah there was still a lot of speculation. And yeah this was from some vaguely serious sources to laughable, will say what ever sources. Also another one just putin being on the verge of death is another one that keeps coming up.
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Dec 14, 2023 06:18
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Fair points, but do you realize that the only thing keeping Putin alive is drinking and bathing in horse cum? Did you know Russia actually has to import horse cum because all domestically produced horse cum is embezzled away by the oligarchs for personal consumption? The sanctions are actually a real risk to Putin. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Dec 14, 2023 06:26
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Nervous posted:Plenty if you Google just that. Plenty of speculatory pieces but also some around the Wagner mutiny that seemed legitimate. Here's one where a Kremlin spokesman said they were on the brink of economic collapse. Hmm so it seems like it's been 1 consecutive month of predictions of collapse.
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Dec 14, 2023 07:15
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