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is this the most successful naval blockade since suez a half-century ago?
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Dec 17, 2023 04:47
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adebisi lives posted:I hope responsible parties in the region see what the houthis are doing and join them in an effort to pressure Israel to stop its genocide in Gaza Blockading the Suez will in the short term mainly make China and India unhappy and I don't think either Israel or the Houthis give a poo poo what they think.
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Dec 17, 2023 05:51
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adebisi lives posted:I hope responsible parties in the region see what the houthis are doing and join them in an effort to pressure Israel to stop its genocide in Gaza Yes, and maybe if Spain blockades the strait of Gibraltar, the Ethiopians will stop fighting in the Tigray?
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Dec 17, 2023 10:59
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i say swears online posted:is this the most successful naval blockade since suez a half-century ago? It isn't really a blockade? I think there's still lots of shipping going through the strait, though some companies have halted their ships. To me it's more similar to piracy around the Horn of Africa (right next door to the strait). Shipping is disrupted and threatened but not shut down and there probably won't be much of a political consequence aside from more warships patrolling the area.
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Dec 17, 2023 14:42
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i say swears online posted:is this the most successful naval blockade since suez a half-century ago? No. https://twitter.com/gcaptain/status/1736384786963267609?s=46&t=fppHBZSlD4AbSz5pJxjFMQ
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Dec 17, 2023 16:05
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I heard the two biggest shipping companies in the world have rerouted operations but I guess they don't have that much market share if it's only 3% of ships
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Dec 17, 2023 17:10
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Maersk has a large world market share of about 15-16%, but they achieve that market share via super huge ships rather than a whole bunch of small ships.
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Dec 17, 2023 17:13
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It's a strange, even disingenious way by Suez Canal Authority to frame the situation, as the shipping companies announced their pause on Suez just this week (mostly at the end of the week), not in November-early December. Since the ships already in canal would continue using it, we will only see the real effects this has in the next couple of weeks, if the temporary diversion continues that long.
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Dec 17, 2023 17:25
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poor waif posted:Yes, and maybe if Spain blockades the strait of Gibraltar, the Ethiopians will stop fighting in the Tigray? The united states is the largest economy in the world and is also Israel's sponsor in their genocide so I think bombing cargo ships and scaring others away is a great tactic to pressure the united states to reverse its idiotic position.
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Dec 17, 2023 17:43
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adebisi lives posted:The united states is the largest economy in the world and is also Israel's sponsor in their genocide so I think bombing cargo ships and scaring others away is a great tactic to pressure the united states to reverse its idiotic position. Well this plan is logical enough I guess, however isn't there also a risk of the US actually doing something about it directly? I'm not sure how likely that is, the USA probably doesn't want to directly entangle itself in yet another eternal war in the middle east, but it seems like playing with fire
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Dec 17, 2023 19:00
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we could annihilate sanaa but the armed forces could evaporate into the hills if necessary. it'd be the viet cong or taliban all over again they already beat the saudis who had modern US equipment so i can't envision a scenario where we could do anything more than targeted airstrikes. something on the ground seems inconceivable
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Dec 17, 2023 19:21
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adebisi lives posted:I hope responsible parties in the region see what the houthis are doing and join them in an effort to pressure Israel to stop its genocide in Gaza Yes, I too hope that other players assist the houthis's murders temper tantrum by trying to hurt innocent people.
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Dec 17, 2023 19:27
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Last I checked, Yemen is signaling Israel-related boats to turn around or dock at Yemen, and if they don't that's when they attack. At this point I feel like anyone who isn't heeding those calls is willingly entering a "What are you gonna do, stab me?" situation.
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Dec 17, 2023 19:30
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Ikasuhito posted:Yes, I too hope that other players assist the houthis's murders temper tantrum by trying to hurt innocent people. they're commandeering container ships, not bombing apartment complexes
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Dec 17, 2023 19:35
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i say swears online posted:they're commandeering container ships, not bombing apartment complexes They are both boarding and firing missiles at ships that get close enough and no, what Israel is doing does not justify their piracy.
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Dec 17, 2023 19:38
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Neurolimal posted:Last I checked, Yemen is signaling Israel-related boats to turn around or dock at Yemen, and if they don't that's when they attack. Are you a NATO regional commander or something? If not I don't think the tactic passing a distant sniff teat is going to mean much of anything
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Dec 17, 2023 19:48
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Ikasuhito posted:Yes, I too hope that other players assist the houthis's murders temper tantrum by trying to hurt innocent people. What else would you like the houthis to do to stop Israel's murderous rampage? Sign an online petition?
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Dec 17, 2023 19:56
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Not try to hurt people? Again someone being a dick does not give you the right to assault and kidnap unconnected strangers.
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Dec 17, 2023 20:05
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Ikasuhito posted:Not try to hurt people? Again someone being a dick does not give you the right to assault and kidnap unconnected strangers. I feel like genocide is a bit more than 'being a dick.' Again, from what I've read Yemen has sent warning calls to the ships they've hit. You're making it sound like they're randomly murdering fishermen.
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Dec 17, 2023 20:31
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adebisi lives posted:The united states is the largest economy in the world and is also Israel's sponsor in their genocide so I think bombing cargo ships and scaring others away is a great tactic to pressure the united states to reverse its idiotic position. The Suez canal mainly facilitates trade between Asia and Europe/North Africa. Disrupting it makes some imported goods more expensive, which will be felt by European consumers as inflation. Asian export nations will face higher costs, which could reduce sales and/or profits. Oh no, less trade between China and Europe! What will America do in this dire situation? Probably shuffle some ships around to intercept missiles and strike launch sites. Howeverx this mainly harms Europe and China, so if they're not going to do anything substantial, the US isn't either.
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Dec 17, 2023 20:38
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Neurolimal posted:I feel like genocide is a bit more than 'being a dick.' Just a few more dead civilians will resolve this conflict, just like it has in every other conflict. After all, we said we'd kill them if they proceeded to do their jobs, so we're in the clear.
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Dec 17, 2023 20:47
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poor waif posted:Just a few more dead civilians will resolve this conflict, just like it has in every other conflict. After all, we said we'd kill them if they proceeded to do their jobs, so we're in the clear. Economic damage was, in fact, an aspect of ending the last apartheid state's policies, yes. And innocent people have, in fact, died during wars where the cause was just. And those innocent civilians had less warning than "you are shipping goods to an apartheid state, we've lit several ships doing this on fire, gently caress off now or we will light your ship on fire."
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Dec 17, 2023 20:52
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Neurolimal posted:Economic damage was, in fact, an aspect of ending the last apartheid state's policies, yes. And innocent people have, in fact, died during wars where the cause was just. And those innocent civilians had less warning than "you are shipping goods to an apartheid state, we've lit several ships doing this on fire, gently caress off now or we will light your ship on fire." So is your argument that it's good to target civilians if it causes economic damage to an enemy in a war? Just warn them first and it's all fine? Couldn't you justify the murder or genocide of any civilian in the world with that argument?
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Dec 17, 2023 21:11
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poor waif posted:So is your argument that it's good to target civilians if it causes economic damage to an enemy in a war? Just warn them first and it's all fine? If said civilian is ferrying supplies to a country committing a genocide, and is told, over radio, "turn around or we will sink your ship", and happily ignores it to chug along, then yes, it is good to make good on that threat. quote:Couldn't you justify the murder or genocide of any civilian in the world with that argument? Only if there's a specific group of people who are all blind, deaf, stupid, amoral, and sailors.
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Dec 17, 2023 21:16
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A Saudi-Iran rapprochement allowing the Houthis to focus their efforts instead on threatening ships heading toward Asia must really annoy Beijing (the ignition of the Saudi-Iran crisis in 2014 due to the Yemen civil war itself derailed some goals there, so this would be really more of a replay)
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Dec 17, 2023 21:19
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Neurolimal posted:
So all those people who didn't leave northern Gaza when they were told to had it coming then?
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Dec 17, 2023 21:21
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Neurolimal posted:If said civilian is ferrying supplies to a country committing a genocide, and is told, over radio, "turn around or we will sink your ship", and happily ignores it to chug along, then yes, it is good to make good on that threat. Who crews these cargo ships, do they actually appreciate the political circumstances? Obviously it's less repugnant than using JDAMs to collapse apartment blocks in Gaza but I'd stop short of saying it's good to missile these guys
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Dec 17, 2023 21:25
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Neurolimal posted:If said civilian is ferrying supplies to a country committing a genocide, and is told, over radio, "turn around or we will sink your ship", and happily ignores it to chug along, then yes, it is good to make good on that threat. So this only relates to shipping? I really don't understand what you're proposing. Civilian sailors are fair game, but not e.g. farmers growing food that might be eaten by a genocidal army? Medical personnel who might operate on a member of the army? A personal finance advisor who might help a member of the army improve their retirement income? A librarian who reads to children of a military? It's fine to kill any civilian if they provide any benefit to an immoral country they live in, as long as you've warned them first?
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Dec 17, 2023 21:27
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Neurolimal posted:If said civilian is ferrying supplies to a country committing a genocide, In some of these cases, they haven’t been. One was en route to Italy when attacked, FWIW.
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Dec 17, 2023 21:28
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It's pure victim blaming bullshit. The Houthis have no right to make these threats and certainly no right to carry them out.
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Dec 17, 2023 21:28
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the houthis are 100% in the right.
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Dec 17, 2023 21:40
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poor waif posted:So this only relates to shipping? I really don't understand what you're proposing. Civilian sailors are fair game, but not e.g. farmers growing food that might be eaten by a genocidal army? Medical personnel who might operate on a member of the army? A personal finance advisor who might help a member of the army improve their retirement income? A librarian who reads to children of a military? How many of these examples are operating out of a mobile vessel that can just leave? Is the native homeland of the sailors the middle of the Red Sea? Like, how exactly do you imagine embargos work? Frown really hard when they get ignored? quote:It's fine to kill any civilian if they provide any benefit to an immoral country they live in, as long as you've warned them first? In the situation where foreign nationals are on a mobile vessel delivering supplies to an ethnosupremacy state? Yes. Hospital in a besieged city worked by natives & residents that can't randomly float away? No. mlmp08 posted:In some of these cases, they haven’t been. One was en route to Italy when attacked, FWIW. They include Israeli-owned ships; IIRC the first ship they hijacked was owned by an Israeli businessman, I can't speak for the Italy-flagged one.
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Dec 17, 2023 21:48
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The Houthis seem pretty OK with ethnic cleansing of groups in how they got rid of all the Jews in Yemen.
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Dec 17, 2023 21:59
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Neurolimal posted:
Company partially owned by an Israeli, Chartered by a Japanese company, traveling from Turkey to India and mostly crewed by Filipinos and Bulgarians.
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Dec 17, 2023 22:05
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Neurolimal posted:How many of these examples are operating out of a mobile vessel that can just leave? Is the native homeland of the sailors the middle of the Red Sea? Surgeons in a hospital can leave their hospitals, I don't think they're locked in their surgeries. Librarians aren't chained to their desks. Farmers can abandon their farms. These are jobs that people need to pay for things. It's great if you're rich enough to live a life of perfect moral clarity at every point and can just drop everything because someone doesn't like what one of the owners of your company might do, most people can't do that. I'm not the one promoting embargoes involving attacks on civilian ships (that may or may not have any relation to Israel) and hoping more countries join in, I don't have to justify them or create a moral framework for how they should work. A whole lot of companies and organisations are likely to have some relation to Israel somehow, that doesn't mean their employees should die, or that their deaths should be celebrated on this forum. I just don't think it's great to be cheering for the willful targeting of civilians, whether or not they happen to live or work for a country that someone finds immoral.
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Dec 17, 2023 22:16
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adebisi lives posted:What else would you like the houthis to do to stop Israel's murderous rampage? Sign an online petition? I mean I'd like the Houthis to stop being raging anti-semites and focus on improving Yemen after its years of war instead of instigating more conflict. loving with shipping has zero influence at all over Israel and almost zero influence over the US aside from inviting some drone strikes.
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Dec 17, 2023 22:26
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Neurolimal posted:In the situation where foreign nationals are on a mobile vessel delivering supplies to an ethnosupremacy state? Yes. Hospital in a besieged city worked by natives & residents that can't randomly float away? No. They have hit multiple ships now - and honestly it looks like any (even tangentally) "Israeli-affiliated" ships hit were a coincidence - they've hit Italian, Norwegian, German, Liberian and others, and I'm not aware of any of them being enroute to or from Israel. For example, the Al Jasrah, was owned by German transport company Hapag-Lloyd, and flagged to Liberia in West Africa. It was on its way to Singapore from Piraeus. An Israeli businessman owning one of them was about as close a link at it gets I think. My gut feeling is that they retrospectively realised the link to an Israeli citizen in that case and used it afterward as a fig leaf excuse. I realise that with Israel's genocidal actions in Gaza people REALLY want to see a state intervening kinetically to stop this, rather than making mealy mouthed calls for cease fires (or tacitly supporting Israel). But I honestly don't think this is it. I really struggle to see these attacks on shipping as a pure act of resistance against Israel - they are attacking neutral shipping simply because they can - their government is opportunistic and wants to promote general regional instability as its upset with the status quo (something something recent Yemen-Saudi history). Neutral ship are soft, undefended targets and launching asymetric attacks on them will cause economic disruption, which will get them attention and hopefully get them some diplomatic concessions if they do it enough. Anecdotally, my ex worked as an aid worker in Yemen a few years ago with Save the Children. The houthi authorities in charge of the region she worked in were amongst the most 'Not Nice People' she has had to deal with (and she worked in Afghanistan for many years) and diverted most of the aid sent. Tigey fucked around with this message at 22:41 on Dec 17, 2023 |
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Dec 17, 2023 22:35
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Neurolimal posted:Last I checked, Yemen is signaling Israel-related boats to turn around or dock at Yemen, and if they don't that's when they attack. Lol, are you seriously suggesting that these ships should actually heed those calls to dock in Yemen, a country that they’re not even passing through the territorial waters of? And "Israeli related" through the absolute most tenuous of links, being that (e: some of the) boats are part of a large company that an Israeli guy has a minority share in, and that’s for the boats which are the *most* related to Israel that they’ve targeted? Yes just let me divert my container ship to a war torn country because some religious fundamentalists will attack me otherwise. Definitely diverting my boat to a war torn fundamentalist state is a good idea and a reasonable thing to do or be asked to do. In case sarcasm doesn’t come through via posting, that is sarcastic because that would be an incredibly dumb thing to do and be all but guaranteed to have you get imprisoned for a while, eventually bargained away, and lose your job and be black listed from your career for the rest of your life by every shipping company. That’s also supposing that the boats are actually receiving warnings, which seems dubious. They certainly would not be valid coast guard calls, since they’re not in Yemeni waters. The Japanese boat they hijacked was way up near Jeddah and it was on its way from Turkey *to* India . They’re just pirating random ships and making up bullshit about them being related to Israel, so that credulous rubes will support them. Saladman fucked around with this message at 22:59 on Dec 17, 2023 |
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Dec 17, 2023 22:50
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Saladman posted:Lol, are you seriously suggesting that these ships should actually heed those calls to dock in Yemen, a country that they’re not even passing through the territorial waters of? And "Israeli related" through the absolute most tenuous of links, being that the boats are part of a large company that an Israeli guy has a minority share in, and that’s for the boats which are the *most* related to Israel that they’ve targeted? I don't appreciate the way you dismiss the genocide IDF is doing in Yemen
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Dec 17, 2023 22:58
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A take: https://twitter.com/GeringTuvia/status/1736743596970115547 (seems implausible even under Chinese obor strategy, fwiw; as pointed out earlier it is not the US, now net energy exporter, which seems principally threatened by a repeat decade of Suez shutdown. That port in Djibouti is held for a reason. It remains to be seen if China will actually leverage it)
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Dec 18, 2023 15:10
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