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the level of effort required to move a ton of goods a mile by land vs a mile by sea seems like it would preclude a land route becoming the preferred intercontinental route. like, it's probably cheaper to send things around the horn of africa then trying to put most of it on trains
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Dec 18, 2023 19:14
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:the level of effort required to move a ton of goods a mile by land vs a mile by sea seems like it would preclude a land route becoming the preferred intercontinental route. like, it's probably cheaper to send things around the horn of africa then trying to put most of it on trains
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Dec 18, 2023 22:47
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:the level of effort required to move a ton of goods a mile by land vs a mile by sea seems like it would preclude a land route becoming the preferred intercontinental route. like, it's probably cheaper to send things around the horn of africa then trying to put most of it on trains This is absolutely true. The reason that Chinese spokesperson talked about land travel is because of China's huge infrastructure investments throughout Asia. A lot of these are transportation infrastructure, including a great deal of rail aimed at connecting China with the rest of Asia and into Europe. Strategically, it gives China options to move its products around even when the US still effectively controls the world's seas. But frankly its hard to imagine any amount of rail being able to compete with shipping in normal circumstances.
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Dec 19, 2023 00:12
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Count Roland posted:This is absolutely true. The [maritime silk] Road has been getting all the glory, but at last, it's Belt's turn to shine!
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Dec 19, 2023 00:35
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There's a propensity to look at a Cold War map and say, aha, the US laboured hard and mightily to retain influence in Pakistan and Pahlavi Iran, but now for take two the Western camp is shut out; it retains only Turkey. What is neglected here (by, say, Chinese domestic observers) is that the West moved mightily for influence here because in March 1946 the Soviets declared its recognition of a breakaway republic in Iranian Azerbaijan and sent fifteen Soviet armoured brigades to back up its recognition: it is the plausibility of Soviet takeover by fait accompli that brings conservative Iranian and Arab and Turkish governments grudgingly into the Western orbit. Losing these struggles here sends whole partisan sides to death camps - the highest possible stakes. Contemporary China, on the other hand, does not present a similar degree of mobilization (to say the least!). And anyway its growth model depends on peaceful globalization and access to European markets, and not Soviet exactions of Persian oil concessions. "Access" as conceptualized as successfully wholly excluding rival powers is probably not on the table. Whilst investing heavily in post-Soviet Central Asian logistics infrastructure does make sense for China, it's true in the same sense that applied to e.g. Japan to invest in logistics infrastructure in post Vietnam War Southeast Asia.: ultimately the "investor" is going to be footing a lot of this bill, and benefits mainly through market access and soft power, rather than a hard power veto. China is better off if its regional trade partners are richer too, but this is a significantly smaller gain than gaining a whole client state (reflecting that China is, also, not putting down a lot of stake). Cold War Mk.II is relatively demilitarized so far. Deepening economic integration through institutional access and logistical infrastructure disciplines these states to Chinese geopolitical interests in much the same way economic integration has disciplined China to Western geopolitical interests, i.e., not very much at all. ronya fucked around with this message at 08:12 on Dec 19, 2023 |
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Dec 19, 2023 08:07
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Neurolimal posted:How many of these examples are operating out of a mobile vessel that can just leave? Is the native homeland of the sailors the middle of the Red Sea? Wow if rubes buy into this kind of paper-thin rationalization, imagine how easy it will be to undertake a generations-long campaign of ethnic cleansing and displacement. Just blame the victim and point out how if they had only heeded your very reasonable and totally legitimate calls, they'd still be alive.
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Dec 20, 2023 23:52
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Grip it and rip it posted:Wow if rubes buy into this kind of paper-thin rationalization, imagine how easy it will be to undertake a generations-long campaign of ethnic cleansing and displacement. Just blame the victim and point out how if they had only heeded your very reasonable and totally legitimate calls, they'd still be alive. This is a good point: if we assume that sailors are natives, boats are countries, and sustaining trade with an ethnosupremacy state is providing lifegiving aid to the injured, then we set a dangerous precedent in embargoing Israel.
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Dec 21, 2023 00:35
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Neurolimal posted:This is a good point: if we assume that sailors are natives, boats are countries, and sustaining trade with an ethnosupremacy state is providing lifegiving aid to the injured, then we set a dangerous precedent in embargoing Israel. December 3 M/V Unity Explorer heading from the US to the Philippines M/V Sophie II bound for Venezuela M/V Number 9 bound for Turkey December 13 M/V Ardmore Encounter heading from India to Sweden December 14 M/V Maersk Gibraltar heading from the UAE to Morocco December 15 M/V Al Jasrah heading from Greece to Singapore M/V Palatium III bound for Jeddah There was also a claimed attack on M/V Alanya bound for Jeddah but nothing was reported by the ship. I know I'm missing some, but you hopefully get the idea. I've bolded the one ship where you can even remotely connect it to Israel - an Israeli owns a minority stake in the company that runs the ship. There are more ships eastbound away from Israel that have been targeted than those that are "sustaining trade with an ethnosupremacy state." You could almost understand the Houthis targeting the ships bound for Saudi Arabia, but a ship from India to Sweden? Greece to Singapore? You don't have to trust me here, you can read what Human Rights Watch has to say: Yemen: Houthis Attack Civilian Ships - Intentionally or Recklessly Targeting Civilians is a War Crime posted:The Houthi armed group that controls part of Yemen has targeted several commercial ships carrying civilian crews in the Red Sea over the last few weeks, Human Rights Watch said today. The attacks included firing missiles or drones at four ships and arbitrarily detaining the crew of a fifth ship. The attacks constitute targeting of civilians and civilian objects, which, if carried out deliberately or recklessly, would be a war crime. Al Jazeera similarly points out the lack of connection between the attacks and Israel: Shipping companies pause Red Sea journeys after Houthi attacks posted:The Houthis said in a statement that they had fired missiles at two ships – the MSC Alanya and MSC Palatium III. The statement did not mention Al Jasrah. In short, there's absolutely zero reason to give the Houthis any credit for doing good here - they're just winging drones at passing ships to boost their standing in the eyes of the credulous.
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Dec 21, 2023 02:11
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You can't see how what they're doing puts pressure on Biden to get Israel to ease up? The US looks like a clown show if their rabid dog's actions in gaza jeopardizes international shipping and risks an escalation to a regional war.
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Dec 21, 2023 02:35
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adebisi lives posted:You can't see how what they're doing puts pressure on Biden to get Israel to ease up? The US looks like a clown show if their rabid dog's actions in gaza jeopardizes international shipping and risks an escalation to a regional war.
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Dec 21, 2023 03:27
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adebisi lives posted:You can't see how what they're doing puts pressure on Biden to get Israel to ease up? The US looks like a clown show if their rabid dog's actions in gaza jeopardizes international shipping and risks an escalation to a regional war. Given that free movement in the seas is a long protected international norm, it is a multilateral force that is coming to reckon with the Houthis in the Red Sea: https://www.defense.gov/News/Releas...g-freedom-of-n/ It was under Joe Biden that the terrorist designation for the Houthis was rescinded in 2021: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/show/in-foreign-policy-shift-biden-lifts-terrorist-designation-for-houthis-in-yemen That designation is likely going to return. This has always been a proxy war with complicated relationships, and removing their FTO designation was part of a rapproachement that has clearly failed.
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Dec 21, 2023 06:19
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adebisi lives posted:You can't see how what they're doing puts pressure on Biden to get Israel to ease up? The US looks like a clown show if their rabid dog's actions in gaza jeopardizes international shipping and risks an escalation to a regional war. Ah yes, it was the machinations of the brilliant Houthi rebels, and not a massive groundswell of domestic US disapproval, that has resulted in the bounty of the Biden administration suggesting that Israel move on from simply murdering everyone in Gaza. What a mitzvah Neurolimal posted:This is a good point: if we assume that sailors are natives, boats are countries, and sustaining trade with an ethnosupremacy state is providing lifegiving aid to the injured, then we set a dangerous precedent in embargoing Israel. What was the lifesaving aid that was aboard the ships that were attacked? If you think these attacks are doing anything other than greasing the skids for more US military adverterism in the ME, then you haven't been paying attention.
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Dec 21, 2023 07:12
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The Houthis occupy more or less the same position in Yemen that the Taliban do in Afghanistan. On one hand, they're deeply conservative and illiberal forces that are geopoliticly obnoxious to their neighbors, the grest powers, and just generally to everyone in a very old-school, pre-modern sort of way. On the other hand, they are in many ways the ground-up representives a of a very real (if domineering) local majority group. And they're extremely good at defending their core turf from empires and neighbors alike.
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Dec 21, 2023 11:39
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How many sailors or other have died or been hurt to AsnarAllah attacks,so far?
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Dec 21, 2023 13:23
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adebisi lives posted:You can't see how what they're doing puts pressure on Biden to get Israel to ease up? The US looks like a clown show if their rabid dog's actions in gaza jeopardizes international shipping and risks an escalation to a regional war. I can't imagine this will change the mind of a single government, no.
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Dec 21, 2023 15:17
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an idle thought: it's going to be funny if the northwest passage opens up a china-europe route just in time for another decade of suez closure everything's coming up north america in this dynamic: geopolitical dominance over both panama and the northwest passage, and growing energy independence at a time europe, india, and china are all still dependent on mideast oil exports
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Dec 21, 2023 17:36
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ronya posted:an idle thought: it's going to be funny if the northwest passage opens up a china-europe route just in time for another decade of suez closure If anything, the scaremongering about the China-Russia-Iran axis serves this purpose—their trajectories are on a path to irrelevancy so much that the US needs to shore them up as a continual threat. See: posturing over Taiwan while CHIPS is passed While that may be more of a leftist critique, that is still no reason to ignore these countries and their unaccountable actions.
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Dec 21, 2023 18:01
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https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/19/us-announces-naval-coalition-to-defend-red-sea-shipping-from-houthi-attacks Wow look at all this tangible progress the Houthis' have brought to a war-torn region. Soon the US will also be indiscriminately bombing. Good poo poo!!! "On Monday, the US military said that the Swan Atlantic tanker was attacked by a drone and an anti-ship ballistic missile launched from a Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen. Its Norwegian owners reported limited damage to the ship, and no injuries to its crew, and the vessel continued sailing under US naval protection." Sounds like they're just attacking targets of opportunity. Which is weird because they seemed so reasonable previously.
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Dec 21, 2023 18:24
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Yea it's totally not doing anything! https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-eilat-port-sees-85-drop-activity-amid-red-sea-houthi-attacks-2023-12-21/
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Dec 21, 2023 20:21
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quote:Sounds like they're just attacking targets of opportunity. Which is weird because they seemed so reasonable previously. 'Misinformation’ led to Swan Atlantic being targeted by terrorists, owner claims quote:"We note that information provider Marine Traffic has wrongfully claimed that the vessel is managed by an “Israel affiliated company” on their website,” Norwegian shipowner Inventor Chemical Tankers said in a statement.
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Dec 21, 2023 21:36
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adebisi lives posted:Yea it's totally not doing anything! "Eilat, which primarily handles car imports and potash exports coming from the Dead Sea, pales in size compared to Israel's Mediterranean ports in Haifa and Ashdod which handle most of the country's trade." And what geopolitical consequences do you foresee? The potash lobby coming in against the war? I can't think of a single country that would change its mind based on what the Houthis are doing. One side note: there's really very little of note on the Red Sea aside from dessert. But there is Port Sudan. Sudan is in the midst of a brutal civil war and control over the port is important. It's possible the change in shipping patterns will have some effect there.
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Dec 21, 2023 22:04
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I'm so relieved that every time the US bombed a wedding or shot a camera crew, it was actually fine, they were just a bit misinformed. Lots of misinformed Israelis in Gaza lately, too bad the only way to run a state that gets defended here these days is to fire missiles at civilian targets first, and ask questions later. adebisi lives posted:Yea it's totally not doing anything! A 2-3 week increase in delivery time for Israeli potash? Surely, Biden must react now!
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Dec 21, 2023 22:15
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Count Roland posted:Middle East Thread: there's little of note on the Red Sea aside from dessert.
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Dec 21, 2023 23:25
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That's the first time I mixed up those words since I was in middle school. What's worse is I saw the autocorrect and for some reason went with it.
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Dec 21, 2023 23:47
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ronya posted:an idle thought: it's going to be funny if the northwest passage opens up a china-europe route just in time for another decade of suez closure  The islands between Canada and Greenland would probably reduce speed as well and might create a greater navigation hazard. I believe there were some "theories" a while back ruminating that a passage north of Siberia might be Putin's intent as far as Russian environmental policy (or lack of it) goes. Would make sense in a sort of Bond villain way.
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Dec 22, 2023 00:25
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Sounds like a case of blaming the victim. Very happy we have people here relying on terrorists, or suggesting we rely on them, to carry out their due diligence on Israeli affiliation before committing sea piracy.
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Dec 22, 2023 00:42
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i fly airplanes posted:Sounds like a case of blaming the victim. It's the victim saying that they were misidentified.
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Dec 22, 2023 00:50
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Well I'm sure when the Houthi's asked if they were an Israeli vessel, and the ship's captain said they in fact were not, that a deep and well scrutinized investigation into the topic was launched internally by the Houthis. adebisi lives posted:Yea it's totally not doing anything! Yes surely the Israeli surrender is on the horizon. Lets all hold our breath in solidarity.
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Dec 22, 2023 01:06
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Grip it and rip it posted:Well I'm sure when the Houthi's asked if they were an Israeli vessel, and the ship's captain said they in fact were not, that a deep and well scrutinized investigation into the topic was launched internally by the Houthis. That's not what my argument was but if it helps you feel better I understand your need to misconstrue everything. I just said that the Houthis threatening commercial sea traffic around the red sea is creating pressure on the Biden administration to tell Israel to reign in their slaughter. The longer this goes on the more the international economy and regional stability is threatened, which isn't what the United States wants, presumably. What I am not saying, is that the Houthi's actions should be seen as binary of success or failure, just a source of pressure. Obviously there are plenty of other considerations factoring into how long the United States government wants to tolerate what's happening.
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Dec 22, 2023 01:22
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It's creating pressure for Biden to gear up and blow up Houthis, and has little to nothing to do with the stance of the US government w/r/t Israel.
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Dec 22, 2023 01:40
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Saudi Arabia and the UAE already tried that, with US weapons. I doubt this time, with a yet more casualty-averse nation at the helm, splitting its munitions three ways, that the Houthis will be tamed. I feel like it's a damning indictment of the Mkddle East Thread if "the Houthis will be defeated by superior Western militaries" is the takeaway, after 7 years of just that failing.
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Dec 22, 2023 01:56
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Neurolimal posted:Saudi Arabia and the UAE already tried that, with US weapons. I doubt this time, with a yet more casualty-averse nation at the helm, splitting its munitions three ways, that the Houthis will be tamed. Who is claiming any kind of Houthi defeat? If the US wants to fire some tomahawks at Houthi missile depots/batteries to protect maritime trade, it's entirely capable of doing so, and it's far more likely to do that than to end its support of Israel. I don't think anyone is arguing that the US is going to invade Yemen. There is little reason to believe that bombing Yemen will solve anything, but it would be a source of some kind of vague pressure, which is all the justification you need to fire missiles at something. Maybe they can delay Yemen's potash exports somewhat, and we can all post articles about what a great success the operation has been.
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Dec 22, 2023 02:25
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Neurolimal posted:Saudi Arabia and the UAE already tried that, with US weapons. I doubt this time, with a yet more casualty-averse nation at the helm, splitting its munitions three ways, that the Houthis will be tamed. Oh wow SA and the UAE tried? Guess that's a wrap on the entire strategy.
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Dec 22, 2023 03:46
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Grip it and rip it posted:Oh wow SA and the UAE tried? Guess that's a wrap on the entire strategy. What part of the US's sterling record in asymmetrical conflicts makes you so confident about its chances of success?
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Dec 22, 2023 04:04
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A big flaming stink posted:What part of the US's sterling record in asymmetrical conflicts makes you so confident about its chances of success? The US has a terrible record of putting boots on the ground to achieve regime change. Its got a very successful record of deciding to bomb places to ruin with long range weaponary, at no human cost to itself. The latter is whats going to happen to Yemen if this continues.
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Dec 22, 2023 13:39
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I mean, you do know that the Saudis bombed the poo poo out the the Houthis, right? To the point where it became a huge humanitarian crisis and famine? What I'm saying is the US doing the same thing is pretty unlikely to do much of anything except add some surplus suffering to the pile.
Haystack fucked around with this message at 14:16 on Dec 22, 2023 |
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Dec 22, 2023 14:13
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The maximal US involvement at this point is protecting shipping. They won't try for regime change or any such thing. So maybe some missiles at Houthi camps where they think they're fitting the missiles from. Maybe a drive strike or assassination of some local leader. Maybe interdicting boats they think are carrying the missiles.
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Dec 22, 2023 14:25
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The Saudis had pretty big goals, here only the launchers used to attack shipping need to be taken out. Though if they're using mobile trucks or something it could be more difficult to track down.
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Dec 22, 2023 14:26
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Haystack posted:I mean, you do know that the Saudis bombed the poo poo out the the Houthis, right? To the point where it became a huge humanitarian crisis and famine? What I'm saying is the US doing the same thing is pretty unlikely to do much of anything except add some surplus suffering to the pile. The Saudis were trying to conquer and subjugate the region, thats completely different from a campaign of strikes at military targets aimed to reduce attacks on shipping. And the Saudis also have completely different (much much worse) stand-off military capabilities to the US. The US has a very solid history of using air/missile/drone power to wreck opponents military capabilities over the last few decades - Iraq, Serbia, Iraq2, Syria etc. Its the one thing we know the US military does very very well.
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Dec 22, 2023 14:57
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mobby_6kl posted:The Saudis had pretty big goals, here only the launchers used to attack shipping need to be taken out. Though if they're using mobile trucks or something it could be more difficult to track down. no you see the Houthis are untameable to any attempt to fight them with western weapons will be defeated by their indomitable spirit. The Saudis proved that when they also tried to protect shipping lanes A big flaming stink posted:What part of the US's sterling record in asymmetrical conflicts makes you so confident about its chances of success? I guess it depends on how you define success. In its many asymmetrical conflicts that the US was not "successful" in, it generally attempted some type of regime change or state building. Here they will be blowing up foreign military assets, a process that the US has a demonstrated capacity for. Not to mention that degrading the Houthis will serve a secondary function of harming iranian allies. There are many Americans that are absolutely hot to go to war with Iran. Those same persons also have a fervent belief that Israel must be protected so the end of the world can start. Initiating a conflict that would allow them to do both doesn't seem like a shrewd way to de-escalate in Palestine. Grip it and rip it fucked around with this message at 17:58 on Dec 22, 2023 |
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Dec 22, 2023 17:52
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