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WoodrowSkillson posted:The war in Gaza has not gone well and their initial goal of "destroying Hamas" will not be achieved. Now they are flailing and have launched airstrikes in Lebanon, Jordan, Yemen, Syria, and just recently assassinated a Hamas leader in Beirut proper. A regional war would ensure US involvement and direct military support. Nasrallah referenced their attempts to goad others into a direct confrontation today in his speech. Israel conducted airstrikes in Jordan and Yemen?
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Jan 3, 2024 22:38
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isis has claimed responsibility for the bombings however i don't not how much credence to give it because not only is it 24 hours after the bombing, but they claim it was two suicide bombs, while iranian officials have stated that they believe at least one bomb was in a suitcase and was remotely detonated
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Jan 4, 2024 18:59
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Ah, but maybe Iranian authorities put out fake information about the bombs, so they'd be able to check on claims of responsibility! I don't think we'll much trust what anybody says about a bombing like this. I suppose the important part is how Iran responds.
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Jan 4, 2024 19:19
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WoodrowSkillson posted:The war in Gaza has not gone well and their initial goal of "destroying Hamas" will not be achieved. Now they are flailing and have launched airstrikes in Lebanon, Jordan, Yemen, Syria, and just recently assassinated a Hamas leader in Beirut proper. A regional war would ensure US involvement and direct military support. Nasrallah referenced their attempts to goad others into a direct confrontation today in his speech. IDF has wrapped up the above-ground operation in Gaza and is going on to destroy them in the tunnels. This allows them to turn their attention to the other groups who have been launching rockets and missiles at Israel's civilians, as the 1M internally displaced Israelis evacuated from the north grow louder. The combat operation in Gaza went relatively well, with only 175 IDF casualties. The airstrikes in Lebanon and Syria have apparently worked in scaring Hezbollah a few clicks north. Israel's demand is 18 miles. WoodrowSkillson posted:The risks involved in this entire debacle have outweighed the benefits. 
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Jan 4, 2024 20:14
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Nameless_Steve posted:IDF has wrapped up the above-ground operation in Gaza and is going on to destroy them in the tunnels. This allows them to turn their attention to the other groups who have been launching rockets and missiles at Israel's civilians, as the 1M internally displaced Israelis evacuated from the north grow louder. I'm sorry what? The only thing Israel has been doing in Gaza is indiscriminately slaughtering civilians. Hamas, ironically, is the group best situated to survive this sort of genocide campaign.
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Jan 4, 2024 20:24
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I am likely going to disagree with Steve there, as I suspect will most of this thread. Can I suggest we not dogpile him? This thread is literally the only place I have to discuss this topic without people frothing at the mouth. I'd love to keep it that way. Or at least keep it informative, instead of just using low effort posts to roast others.
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Jan 4, 2024 20:50
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Ok, but moral outrage aside, he is factually incorrect about the effectiveness of Israel's campaign against Hamas
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Jan 4, 2024 20:53
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setting aside the military question, polling is not great for the current government that should be benefitting from a rally round the flag effect. i'm not convinced that this means they're actively seeking to draw iran into direct conflict, but clearly whatever political objectives the current government have set for this campaign are either stymied or are being achieve but are fundamentally flawed because public sentiment around the fighting has been deteriorating
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Jan 4, 2024 20:59
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A big flaming stink posted:Ok, but moral outrage aside, he is factually incorrect about the effectiveness of Israel's campaign against Hamas I agree. I'd split it in two: military, and political. Militarily the campaign has been somewhat effective. Not many IDF killed compared to... all those civilians, but also presumably a lot of Hamas militants as well. Surely Hamas has been degraded as an organization. Politically though. The outrage caused will result in many more Palestinians taking up arms against Israel either now or in the future. I guess this is why Israeli ministers are talking about moving Gazans to some other country. Killing cannot end this conflict, but a forced relocation would be a sort of "solution". I do wonder what the Israeli public think of this. I'd the war going well in their eyes?
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Jan 4, 2024 21:49
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Count Roland posted:Can I suggest we not dogpile him? Count Roland posted:I agree. I'd split it in two: military, and political. Israel estimates it has taken out as many as 8,000-9,000 of Hamas' initial force of 20,000 (+20,000 reserve). No idea whether that 8-9,000 number overlaps with the GHM reported total. GhostofJohnMuir posted:setting aside the military question, polling is not great for the current government that should be benefitting from a rally round the flag effect. i'm not convinced that this means they're actively seeking to draw iran into direct conflict, but clearly whatever political objectives the current government have set for this campaign are either stymied or are being achieve but are fundamentally flawed because public sentiment around the fighting has been deteriorating But make no mistake, the country has not been this united since its founding. The pro-peace left was betrayed by Hamas on October 7, and many Israelis now call themselves ex-peaceniks. There was some support for an all-for-all hostage/prisoner exchange, but Hamas reportedly shot down all offers. The Israeli "ceasefire" rallies are very different from the rallies around the world, as they do not call for an unconditional ceasefire, but instead insist on conditional ceasefires that accomplish Israeli objectives such as recovering the remaining hostages or extraditing Ismail Haniyeh. These rallies peaked in prominence after the friendly fire tragedy. But after the shooting down of the Hamas general who was in charge of those negotiations, it's safe to say that window is shut. And with 1 million displaced Northern Israelis and continued rocket-fire from Lebanon, there is growing public concern to act on the threat from Hezbollah although obviously everybody is reticent to another ground operation in Lebanon. But it's not some calculated move coming out of nowhere, it's a response to active fire. Somewhat off-topic, but interesting read: Israeli think-tank's plans for rebuilding a post-Hamas Gaza Nameless_Steve fucked around with this message at 22:26 on Jan 4, 2024 |
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Jan 4, 2024 22:20
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I'm sure others will challenge you re: civilians in Gaza so I'll skip that. I was actually planning on finding some forum or Reddit where I could see what pro-Israel opinions really were. Turns out I don't even have to leave the thread. Steve: what is your, or your perceived opinion of Israelis generally, of the "voluntary relocation" proposals that have been growing in prominence? Good, bad, other?
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Jan 4, 2024 23:29
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Nameless_Steve posted:I appreciate it. Assuming someone gave the IDF full credit that they are being 100% accurate and 8,000-9,000 hamas fighters have been killed, that would mean about 40% of those killed in Gaza so far have been militants. The rest have been civilians, with about as many children killed as Hamas militants. While it's impossible to really verify the glaims of either the IDF or the Gaza Health Ministry, visits by external experts, reports from the UN, and reports from other NGOs like MSF have been very clear that children and civilians are being bombed regularly, along with the infrastructure that supports them. So even if we took the numbers of the IDF at complete face value and accepted them as unimpeachable, that neither counters nor justifies the indiscriminate killing of civilians. Nameless_Steve posted:And with 1 million displaced Northern Israelis and continued rocket-fire from Lebanon, there is growing public concern to act on the threat from Hezbollah although obviously everybody is reticent to another ground operation in Lebanon. But it's not some calculated move coming out of nowhere, it's a response to active fire. Where did you get that number? The Guardian has the number at 80,000 Israelis in Northern Israel displaced, not 1 million. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/17/fears-grow-of-all-out-israel-hezbollah-war-as-fighting-escalates-lebanon If you don't want to use The Guardian, here's the Times of Israel, also stating 80,000, not 1 million. https://www.timesofisrael.com/gallant-tells-us-envoy-hochstein-theres-a-short-window-for-a-deal-with-hezbollah/ 1 million might refer to how many Gazans have been displaced by IDF orders and the bombing campaign, but then the 1 million number is too low instead of too high?
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Jan 4, 2024 23:50
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My bad, I should have double-checked that. The statistic I was thinking of was "Israelis affected by northern displacement" which is of course going to include more people.
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Jan 5, 2024 02:03
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While it certainly impacts the larger Middle East, can I just remind people that there is a specific thread for discussing Palestine/Israel before we go too much further.
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Jan 5, 2024 02:30
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I don't understand how it helps ISIS at all to organize a massive terrorist attack in Iran when Israel is the one most of the world, and the Muslim world specifically, is focused on for its war on Gaza?
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Jan 5, 2024 02:51
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khwarezm posted:I don't understand how it helps ISIS at all to organize a massive terrorist attack in Iran when Israel is the one most of the world, and the Muslim world specifically, is focused on for its war on Gaza? ISIS is a very strange organisation (or ideological franchise at this point) and probably someone had the juice to make this happen unlike in israel, where the palestinian nationalist-islamist organisations generally hold more sway, and those are typically not very strongly sectarian it's not that hard to kill a bunch of random people with bombs if you have sufficiently dedicated cadres and a reasonable amount of resources. if this is ISIS it probably isn't about israel at all (israel was imo always seen as too hard a target for them), it may very well be some guys with a grudge from iraq or something remember, ISIS were sectarian enough that it make the qataris iffy. they dislike the heathen but they hate the heretic
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Jan 5, 2024 03:31
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Count Roland posted:I'm sure others will challenge you re: civilians in Gaza so I'll skip that. It's not considered a serious proposal; the International Community will never go along with it, so it was pointless for them to bring it up. Israelis do not like hypotheticals.
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Jan 5, 2024 03:35
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V. Illych L. posted:ISIS is a very strange organisation (or ideological franchise at this point) and probably someone had the juice to make this happen unlike in israel, where the palestinian nationalist-islamist organisations generally hold more sway, and those are typically not very strongly sectarian I just find it completely insane how even within the parameters of being a terrorist organization with no qualms attacking civilians that Israel, the one place they would probably get some significant prestige attacking, and which other organisations like Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis have made a massive cornerstone of their platforms in opposition too, is apparently off limits. Is it because they don't start with H? Is that the common factor they lack? Like right now you can go on twitter and see people conspiracising to large audiences that they are secretly puppets of the Zionist/American legion of doom conspiracy since they don't seem to do much at all around Israel and Palestine despite everything happening now.
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Jan 5, 2024 05:03
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khwarezm posted:I just find it completely insane how even within the parameters of being a terrorist organization with no qualms attacking civilians that Israel, the one place they would probably get some significant prestige attacking, and which other organisations like Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis have made a massive cornerstone of their platforms in opposition too, is apparently off limits. Is it because they don't start with H? Is that the common factor they lack? As far as 'why attack Iran instead of Israel?', Iran is an easier target for them logistically than Israel, and also has more vengeance motivations since the Iranian military was directly involved in fighting them in Syria and Iraq and Israel wasn't.
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Jan 5, 2024 05:56
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Why would whatever is left over of ISIS attack their geopolitical ally, Israel, that aided them directly in the Syrian Civil war?
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Jan 5, 2024 13:49
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Brown Moses posted:Caro just got awarded $50 million, like a real life Spawny Get Guess he proved all of us wrong when we told him not to go.
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Jan 6, 2024 02:49
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khwarezm posted:I just find it completely insane how even within the parameters of being a terrorist organization with no qualms attacking civilians that Israel, the one place they would probably get some significant prestige attacking, and which other organisations like Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis have made a massive cornerstone of their platforms in opposition too, is apparently off limits. Is it because they don't start with H? Is that the common factor they lack? i don't think israel's necessarily off limits, but it's very inconvenient and it's a secondary concern to purifying islam by killing every single follower of the apostate ali
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Jan 7, 2024 03:17
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nothing official, but the times is suggesting that strikes in yemen by us and uk are imminentquote:Britain is expected to join the United States in conducting air strikes on military positions belonging to the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen "within hours", the political editor for the Times newspaper reported on Thursday. maybe they'll be able to curb some of the launches, but i'm doubtful they'll be able to win some air war victory that eluded the saudis. the disproportionate cost of threatening vs protecting international shipping seems like yet another factor against globalized jit manufacturing
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Jan 12, 2024 00:49
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There's actually a clear objective here, stopping attacks on shipping, which historically has been something achievable.
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Jan 12, 2024 01:03
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The strikes on Yemen have commenced according to CNN. I have to wonder how good the Intel is on where the Houthis are keeping all the various missiles and drones to shoot at ships.
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Jan 12, 2024 01:06
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the complication is that the houthis are being supplied by iran. the cost of producing and shipping them missiles and drones is less than the cost of either active bombing or interception efforts. it's like ukraine in reverse
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Jan 12, 2024 01:15
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This is so stupid. This is happening entirely because the Houthis have demanded a ceasefire in Gaza. That's it.
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Jan 12, 2024 01:16
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FlamingLiberal posted:This is so stupid. This is happening entirely because the Houthis have demanded a ceasefire in Gaza. That's it. Uh, no. This is happening because the Houthis have been attacking unarmed ships in the Red Sea.
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Jan 12, 2024 01:21
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They started attacking the ships to gently caress with Israel, and said that the attacks would stop if a ceasefire in Gaza was put in place
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Jan 12, 2024 01:24
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FlamingLiberal posted:They started attacking the ships to gently caress with Israel, and said that the attacks would stop if a ceasefire in Gaza was put in place That's not a demand, that's extortion.
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Jan 12, 2024 01:26
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Aren't all demands basically extortion?
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Jan 12, 2024 01:30
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fez_machine posted:There's actually a clear objective here, stopping attacks on shipping, which historically has been something achievable. The bit where it's cheap missiles and cheaper drones now is a bit of a wrinkle, but yeah, in general I don't know enough about the details to really have a feasibility opinion. I agree it's going to be more expensive for the US et al than Iran et al. but uh, so is the impact of piracy and blockade on a major shipping lane it's also one of those things where if it's an effective way to achieve an objective, that's potentially a big systemic problem even if the current grievance is basically correct. if it works there's nothing in particular stopping some Central American junta or something - say, that failed Bolivian fash government - from sealing access to the Panama Canal until demands are met the best answer would be for the current blockade to be unnecessary but that isn't the timeline we are in Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 01:46 on Jan 12, 2024 |
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Jan 12, 2024 01:41
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The Houthis don't just have drones, apparently... https://twitter.com/apki_hun_yr/status/1745612066193281296 e: They deleted the original tweet and reposted hence the edit fuctifino fucked around with this message at 02:04 on Jan 12, 2024 |
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Jan 12, 2024 01:44
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Deteriorata posted:That's not a demand, that's extortion. extortion is good if its done to stop a genocide
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Jan 12, 2024 01:55
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fuctifino posted:The Houthis don't just have drones, apparently... Tweet is gone. Or it's just "X" imploding. Fingers crossed.
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Jan 12, 2024 02:03
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A big flaming stink posted:extortion is good if its done to stop a genocide everyone gets mad at the houthis but when cloud, tifa and aeris threatened to chop off don corneo's penis in order to save sector 7 they were heroes
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Jan 12, 2024 02:06
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Google Jeb Bush posted:The bit where it's cheap missiles and cheaper drones now is a bit of a wrinkle, but yeah, in general I don't know enough about the details to really have a feasibility opinion. I agree it's going to be more expensive for the US et al than Iran et al. but uh, so is the impact of piracy and blockade on a major shipping lane one factor that might reassure the world a bit is that the houthis are in an odd spot where they essentially govern yemen without quite being state actors that can be effectively targeted by a superpower's bombing campaign. i don't thing any entity in south america or the south china seas is in quite the same position, but it does continue the trend of this decade highlighting that the relative geo-political stability of the 90's and 00's being a moment in time rather than a permeant world state
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Jan 12, 2024 02:07
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it is not obvious that US military action short of an actual invasion can sufficiently lower insurance premiums in the red sea to make this worth it i do suspect that it's necessary for the american military's prestige to be seen to at least try, though - keeping shipping lanes open is very important and one of the main claims to legitimacy of the US' global power - but with this escalation they're risking an even bigger blow if they, like the saudis before them, fail to pacify the houthis - and that, i think, is a very possible outcome. what then? another murderous blockade? this is another one of those blowback things. had the americans not happily assisted in the very brutal war by the sunni gulf coalition, and had the americans not been so dead-set on supporting israel's increasingly arrogant and stupid policies, this whole crisis could've been averted. as-is the yemenis have no reason to listen to anything the americans say, and that means that what's on the table is either simple force or a large bribe. the whole thing smells of overreach by an increasingly sclerotic hegemon and for this, a lot human beings are going to have to die
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Jan 12, 2024 02:17
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I've been banging on a bit about this but I'm genuinely worried about the impact on Yemeni fishing and any other nautical activities, seeing as how at least some of the blockade/piracy has been boat-based. Even with the relatively limited US objectives, "what if we partially blockade Yemeni ports, just to prevent pirates" could get real unpleasant all over again.
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Jan 12, 2024 02:23
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V. Illych L. posted:it is not obvious that US military action short of an actual invasion can sufficiently lower insurance premiums in the red sea to make this worth it They've now turned the entire region into a warzone, so all that's going to do is make the current premiums skyrocket
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Jan 12, 2024 02:25
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