Harlock posted:

All time bust Zach Wilson was still a starter by year 3

FizFashizzle posted:

Imagine Bryce playing football in 1999.

Doltos posted:

List of QBs that had a near statistical season as Bryce their rookie year or way worse that are starting right now:

Jared Goff
Josh Allen
Matthew Stafford
Jalen Hurts
Geno Smith
Kirk Cousins
Joe Flacco
Ryan Tannehill

YOLOsubmarine posted:

The Cardinals had the number 1 pick in the draft. If the Panthers had the number 1 pick then yea, absolutely, draft Williams and move on. Unfortunately despite being the worst team in the league they don’t have the number 1 pick because they already spent it on Bryce Young, so they might as well see if they can salvage him.

Doltos posted:

You're not allowed to say Peyton Manning even though he's an example? That's kind of selective bias right there.

List of QBs that had a near statistical season as Bryce their rookie year or way worse that are starting right now:

Jared Goff
Josh Allen
Matthew Stafford
Jalen Hurts
Geno Smith
Kirk Cousins
Joe Flacco
Ryan Tannehill

Historical QBs that had a worse rookie season:
Peyton Manning
Steve Young
Alex Smith
Troy Aikman
Terry Bradshaw

Should I keep going or is this going to change your mind at all?

Relentlessboredomm posted:

fsif posted:

They're not comparable. You just took the top performers from each year and arbitrarily chose just two of their numbers.

Interceptions for the median quarterback were way higher back then and completion percentage way lower. Matthew Stafford's rookie stat line was not nearly as ghastly by 2009 standards as it is by 2023 standards.

IcePhoenix posted:

I wish you had included Y/C because I laughed every time when I looked at Bryce vs whoever I was currently looking at and it would probably be even funnier on a spreadsheet like that (For those wondering Bryce averaged 9.1 yards per completion this year and like everyone else except for one or two guys was above 11)

YOLOsubmarine posted:

Looking at the the guy ranked 16th in each year they’re comparable on TDs, TD%, Y/G, Y/A. Sack rates are higher in 2023. Completion percentage and INT% are lower, which is probable related to the above in addition to modern schemes simply focusing more on intermediate stuff and high probability passing.

2009 wasn’t exactly the bad old days for QBs, you had some of the most prolific QB seasons ever in that era.

Master Stur posted:

So? Russ was a 3rd round pick. Just go get someone else it literally (not figuratively) can't get worse.

YOLOsubmarine posted:

Of course it can get worse. Josh Rosen was actually worse. You could pick a guy so bad he never even sees the field like Christian Hackenberg. As bad as the odds are that a guy who has a bad season turns it around the odds of finding a franchise QB in the third round are even lower. Bryce is already paid for, taking another QB that has a really high chance of also being bad and then throwing them out behind a bad o line with the worst receivers in the league isn’t going to solve anything for them.

There’s no rush to move on. They’re not missing out on any great opportunity by playing him next year. If he sucks then they’ll at least be in a better spot to draft his replacement.

fsif posted:

Yes, they're comparable in passing yards and passing touchdowns. They're not comparable in completion percentage or interceptions.

Matthew Stafford's rookie year stat line looks hideous in 2023 because he has a low completion percentage and a bad TD:INT ratio. His yards per game and TD% were fine.

IcePhoenix posted:

Can you explain what metric you're using to determine "a near statistical season or way worse" because when I look at them this is what I see

Flacco's first season he put up similar numbers with 100 fewer attempts (6.9 yards/attempt vs bryce's 5.5 lmao)
Tannehil had 500 more yards on 40 fewer attempts
Jalen Hurts is another "way more Y/A than Bryce" guy (also he adds way more in the run game than Bryce did)
I'm not sure how I'm supposed to even evaluate Cousins in this one, he was drafted as a backup in the fourth round and had 14 games played at the end of his third year. But if I add all those up then uh...he was way better.
Geno's a pretty fair comparison. He was also drafted 38 spots lower.
Josh Allen had ~2700 yards in 12 games (11 starts) when you add in his rushing, which only puts him ~500 yards behind what Bryce did in 16. And add another one to the list of a way higher yards/attempt
Stafford and Goff are actually decent comparisons.

Doltos posted:

Can you explain why you only looked at Y/A and any stat that people had better instead of worse

Tannehill had 3 more INTs on 40 fewer attempts, would you trade 500 yards for 3 ints or is that even an argument worth having?
Flacco put up similar numbers on fewer attempts is a near statistical season.
Cousins first 3 seasons were 18 tds and 19 INTs. His first full season was good but that was 4 years into NFL acclimation.
Josh Allen still had a mediocre to bad first year which was the point.
The other 3 are all decent comparisons and yet you still made this post

Doltos posted:

Ah that's the problem then. Bryce Young, the guy who is a WCO pocket passer, didn't run as much as the other guys, as a quarterback.

The original point is that someone said terrible rookie seasons are low percentage bounce back and you can only count on one hand the ones that came back without going 20 years back and thats just blatantly not true. Nit pick how comparable the stats are, all of those were bad rookie seasons that people bounced back from.

Doltos posted:

Ah that's the problem then. Bryce Young, the guy who is a WCO pocket passer, didn't run as much as the other guys, as a quarterback.

The original point is that someone said terrible rookie seasons are low percentage bounce back and you can only count on one hand the ones that came back without going 20 years back and thats just blatantly not true. Nit pick how comparable the stats are, all of those were bad rookie seasons that people bounced back from.

Relentlessboredomm posted:

Yea the WCO guy is worse than all the other passers and he's worse than the other dual threat QBs. It's almost like as you're hunting for things to be positive about there's vanishingly little there.

And yea gonna disagree that all of those were "bad" rookie seasons. Like you could claim Stafford had a bad rookie year but he also had a 5 TD passing game, which is incredible. Josh Allen, who is the poster child for a bad toolsy QB that became good, ended on a 3TD 1 INT passing performance and threw in another 2 rushing TDs for a 5 TD game.

I'd say most of those comparisons you used were mixed and not really bad and the truly bad ones like Goff and Geno are the ones closest to Bryce. Neither of those are exactly comforting, his best chance is to one day have a single good season after being a bust for years or becoming a solid starters if he gets some absolutely perfect offensive setups and coaching.

Forrest on Fire posted:

What offense does Alabama run? Is there a transition from college to the West Coast Offense still?

Every Bama rookie I remember watching had struggled as a rookie. Bryce looked worse than rookie Tua but every year it feels like this thread immediately throws out the Bama QB

Doltos posted:

What are you even talking about? The WCO guy had a comparable season to those people. The numbers are right there. His Y/A is bad which everyone knows and points out. He's got legs and runs but he isn't a run first QB or even uses it as a weapon like Josh Allen. People are being judged by one game? Staffords rookie season was miserable. 1 great game doesn't offset the bad ones. Same with Josh Allen. I'm not hunting for things to be positive over, I think you're hunting for ways to fit a narrative that Bryce Young is the worst QB ever.

Relentlessboredomm posted:

He had a worse season than the WCO comps and both Allen and Stafford performed better than Bryce in their “miserable” rookie seasons while giving at least one truly inspiring performance so that you could see something in them. Bryce performed worse in the aggregate and his highs are nowhere close to theirs. Like what is this need you have to force optimism about this?

Forrest on Fire posted:

What offense does Alabama run? Is there a transition from college to the West Coast Offense still?

Every Bama rookie I remember watching had struggled as a rookie. Bryce looked worse than rookie Tua but every year it feels like this thread immediately throws out the Bama QB

YOLOsubmarine posted:

I’m not arguing that Stafford didn’t have a better rookie season than Bryce, he clearly did, I just think the idea that 2009 was basically like 1985 and that it was so much harder to play QB then is silly. Whatever rule changes have come out to benefit QBs have been offset by the fact that offensive lines simply can’t protect QBs consistently anymore. 2009 is the modern passing era. Drew Brees wouldn’t throw for 6000 yards if he was playing today.

Relentlessboredomm posted:

Bryce has easily been the worst of the last 4 Bama QBs in his rookie season. But part of that is Bama wins on all world talent and the QBs haven’t been dudes with a great toolset. They’re mostly there to manage the offense.

fsif posted:

Man what on earth? How are you contorting "Matthew Stafford's 2009 stat line looks worse by 2023 standards" to "Drew Brees would pass for 6000 yards today?"

I feel like you just made a weird contrarian post without thinking too much about it and now you're tripling down in an incredibly esoteric way.

Doltos posted:

Can you explain why you only looked at Y/A and any stat that people had better instead of worse

Doltos posted:

Flacco put up similar numbers on fewer attempts is a near statistical season.

YOLOsubmarine posted:

Ehhhh, we’re really past the Greg McElroy era at Bama. Tua was and Bryce were both a cut above those guys and definitely pulled their weight in those offenses. Bama had a run of really good WRs but their O lines haven’t been dominant for a while and they haven’t had a special running back since Henry.

IcePhoenix posted:

I don't even know what this argument is. "If you ignore all the things they were significantly better at better at then they were basically the same" ?

Other stuff has been covered but

100 attempts is three games worth. The only thing "near" to three games is the difference in the Panthers wins and the teams that finished tied for the second pick.

CharlestheHammer posted:

Your being unfair his point is that the entire argument is 2009 was harder. It really isn’t if it was easier then Brees could throw for 6k

fsif posted:

Nevermind, like, including Jalen Hurts's four-game rookie season or trying to pass off 2023 stats as comparable to 2009 stats.

fsif posted:

Man what on earth? How are you contorting "Matthew Stafford's 2009 stat line looks worse by 2023 standards" to "Drew Brees would pass for 6000 yards today?"

I feel like you just made a weird contrarian post without thinking too much about it and now you're tripling down in an incredibly esoteric way.

wandler20 posted:

Are we really just going to ignore Jahmyr Gibbs, Najee Harris, and Josh Jacobs? Hell, guys like Damien Harris, Bo Scarbrough, and Brian Robinson were all very good at Alabama.

fsif posted:

I made the original argument! I said you can't pass off 2023 stats as comparable to 2009 stats. I didn't think that was controversial.

Doltos posted:

No, you ignored the INTs for several players which is a way bigger deal than Y/A. I'm sure if Bryce had more INTs than Stafford or something you'd mention that.

100 attempts is 3 games worth, I don't know if stats in those games would deflate or inflate a rookie QB's season, but I'm willing to lean towards more exposure = more mistakes for QBs that struggle in their first year.

YOLOsubmarine posted:

I’m absolutely going to ignore Najee Harris, who sucks. Jacob’s had less yards in his 3 year Bama career than Henry had in one season. Gibbs only had 150 carries in his Bama career, which lasted 1 year.

Those other guys were decent players on a very good team but none of them could carry an offense. Bama has become VERY dependent on passing the ball in the past 10 years and they need QBs who are a cut above game manager to do that. Bama wouldn’t get anywhere with a JJ McCarthy under center.

IcePhoenix posted:

I don't really care about INTs for rookies TBH. The difference in "windows" you're throwing to between college and the pros is huge and absolutely takes time to adjust to. More worrying if they're still a problem in years 2 and 3. I also tend to feel like young players will get better the more exposure they get as they adjust to the league, not worse. Especially at the end of the year, as if they had a hot start but fell off as more teams got tape, they've not had a chance to adjust to those adjustments. So if Flacco had those three extra games I would expect them to be on pace or better than what he already did.