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Comrade Blyatlov
Aug 4, 2007


should have picked four fingers





shame on an IGA posted:

we're all powerful shitposters here, let's open our own superpac and be the messaging we want to see. It can't be that hard to sucker these megadonors into opening the checkbook if Amy McGrath and Jaime Harrington cleared $200,000,000 between them to lose by 15

THIS MESSAGE PAID FOR BY SGT CHOWDOWN FOR LIBERTY

Vote Luca 2024

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facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns

Platystemon posted:

Voter perceptions will align with “the metrics” that say that the economy is doing great any day now.

Any day now.

Voter perceptions are basically: the economy sucks but it's doing great for me! It's essentially decoupled from actual truth and has become a vibes/polarized question, or just a question about gas prices. The respondents aren't caring about increasing poverty or discontinuation of enhanced child credits and so on - it's just dumb vibes poo poo.

Donnie's favorite campaign line lately has been screaming about $7/$8 gallon gas that he's mythically seen somewhere. And surprise - gas prices are going down and the economic outlook polling is going up! Voters!

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

Mr. Nice! posted:

I'll note that he had 70% way early on. He's hovering at around 50% now with Haley and DeSantis fighting for first loser.

There’s this media narrative that if all the other candidates drop out, the lone survivor against Trump could beat him

They said the same thing in 2016, and the same reality existed then: the second choice of a lot of Haley/DeSantis/&c. voters is Donald Trump himself.

As candidates drop out, Trump’s share of the votes increases by a substantial amount.

Their best shot in 2016 was arguably to keep everyone in and go to a brokered convention, but even that wouldn’t work now.

CBJSprague24
Dec 5, 2010

another game at nationwide arena. everybody keeps asking me if they can fuck the cannon. buddy, they don't even let me fuck it

Pine Cone Jones posted:

I have to hope that Donnie loses and we somehow avoid calamity for another few years. I have enough going on to distract myself right now, but come November I may just lock myself in the basement and watch all of sliders.

There's no real good option unless he has the McDonald's induced big one or goes to prison.

Win, and he installs his very own dictatorship, which is a genie that will never be put back in the bottle.

Lose, and he kicks and screams and gets a bunch more illiterate, uneducated rednecks thrown in prison for continuing to pout that he's a loser.

E- On a lighter note:
https://twitter.com/SamanthaJoRoth/status/1747079780472688842?t=JYhH7i0LxHf6ZE6CQzoASw&s=19

CBJSprague24 fucked around with this message at 03:45 on Jan 16, 2024

maffew buildings
Apr 29, 2009

too dumb to be probated; not too dumb to be autobanned
I'm not sure how expressing a lack of confidence in Biden and Co. to have a real strategy against Trump is doomerism, and I sincerely hope that he doesn't end up on the ballot, but wow everything that got us to this point is really bad and upsetting. edit: now I am nostalgic for happier times, like 2004, when the Killdozer was doing the right thing against tyrannical small government and the mission was accomplished in Iraq, and National Lampoon Van Wilder had a still hot as gently caress Tara Reid and taught newly arriving collegiate young men how to get kicked out of university within a month

maffew buildings fucked around with this message at 03:51 on Jan 16, 2024

Stultus Maximus
Dec 21, 2009

USPOL May

CBJSprague24 posted:


Lose, and he kicks and screams and gets a bunch more illiterate, uneducated rednecks thrown in prison for continuing to pout that he's a loser.


How is that not a good option

CBJSprague24
Dec 5, 2010

another game at nationwide arena. everybody keeps asking me if they can fuck the cannon. buddy, they don't even let me fuck it

Stultus Maximus posted:

How is that not a good option

At least the incumbent president would send in the troops/cops this time, I guess.

facialimpediment
Feb 11, 2005

as the world turns
Also, just for funsies:

https://twitter.com/nathanlgonzales/status/1747088143210135801?t=sRGlrPBU4ImVYd-0RF37FA&s=19

Arizona is one of those states where the chud contingent will accept absolutely nothing less than hand-counted ballots. And the above is just for a one-question ballot. I believe they're also pushing for all counting to be done by the end of election night.

Just wackyass logic or extreme bad faith. The only thing I've ever been icky about are the voting machine touchscreens that don't output paper copies/backups.

Cugel the Clever
Apr 5, 2009
I LOVE AMERICA AND CAPITALISM DESPITE BEING POOR AS FUCK. I WILL NEVER RETIRE BUT HERE'S ANOTHER 200$ FOR UKRAINE, SLAVA
Comedy option: both candidates pass away from genuinely natural causes on 4 November. Country goes utterly insane with conspiracy theories; street violence flares up on election day, hampering people's attempts to exercise their franchise and impeding the tallying of votes; Congress rejects the flawed electoral count of president-elect Harris or Kennedy.

Kazinsal
Dec 13, 2011

Cugel the Clever posted:

Comedy option: both candidates pass away from genuinely natural causes on 4 November. Country goes utterly insane with conspiracy theories; street violence flares up on election day, hampering people's attempts to exercise their franchise and impeding the tallying of votes; Congress rejects the flawed electoral count of president-elect Harris or Kennedy.

Ah, the "Vancouver on game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals at home" option.

Tyro
Nov 10, 2009
Iran dropped some ballistic missiles on civilian targets in/around Erbil last night. They did something very similar back in 2022.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/15/world/middleeast/iran-iraq-syria-attack.html

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS
The presumptive nominee passing peacefully in their sleep is the best thing that could happen to either major party, and everyone knows it.

fknlo
Jul 6, 2009


Fun Shoe

Platystemon posted:

The presumptive nominee passing peacefully in their sleep is the best thing that could happen to either major party, and everyone knows it.

Donald Trump's death, even if something 1000000% without question his fault and caught from 60 angles in 4k, will lead to conspiracies and actions from his supporters that we can't even dream of at this point in time.

Kazinsal
Dec 13, 2011

fknlo posted:

Donald Trump's death, even if something 1000000% without question his fault and caught from 60 angles in 4k, will lead to conspiracies and actions from his supporters that we can't even dream of at this point in time.

Yeah, he could die as the oldest recorded person on the planet in 40-odd years with a dozen different doctors declaring the cause of death as "so fuckin old his cells stopped reproducing" and multiple state militias would attempt to seize control of ICBM silos over it.

GD_American
Jul 21, 2004

LISTEN TO WHAT I HAVE TO SAY AS IT'S INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT!

fknlo posted:

Donald Trump's death, even if something 1000000% without question his fault and caught from 60 angles in 4k, will lead to conspiracies and actions from his supporters that we can't even dream of at this point in time.

This is simultaneously true and not worth worrying about.

Stupid people will believe stupid things. If they couldn't think of something stupid, they would be told something stupid and then they'd believe it.

Cugel the Clever
Apr 5, 2009
I LOVE AMERICA AND CAPITALISM DESPITE BEING POOR AS FUCK. I WILL NEVER RETIRE BUT HERE'S ANOTHER 200$ FOR UKRAINE, SLAVA

GD_American posted:

This is simultaneously true and not worth worrying about.

Stupid people will believe stupid things.
The key issue, though, is that this belief has an unusually high likelihood of inciting action. While it's all well and good to laugh at the jelly-bellied LARPers as cowards who would be liquefied by the US military, the truth is that it doesn't take a strong man to toss bullets at a soft target, just a minimally-motivated one.

GD_American
Jul 21, 2004

LISTEN TO WHAT I HAVE TO SAY AS IT'S INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT!
These men are cowards, Donnie

AreWeDrunkYet
Jul 8, 2006

As much as you don't want to hand it to Graham and he did almost immediately reverse himself, he was right

https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/727604522156228608

Americans have more than enough information about Trump. If we STILL elect him in 2024, we deserve whatever lovely outcomes come about.

Kesper North
Nov 3, 2011

EMERGENCY POWER TO PARTY

pmchem posted:

https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1746705110401695779?s=20

delusional to try and take on a DDG in a task force with a lone anti-ship cruise missile

they did it for social media cred

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

Platystemon posted:

The presumptive nominee passing peacefully in their sleep is the best thing that could happen to either major party, and everyone knows it.

Harris is probably the one person with worse numbers than Biden. Its too late for Biden not to run but switching VPs would only help his numbers.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

facialimpediment posted:

Also it still hasn't connected for a lot of normies that it's a Biden vs. Trump general election.

otoh, when I talk to "normal" people who aren't that engaged in politics and aren't extremely online, they can't imagine it being anything other than Biden v Trump, unless one of them dies or is incapacitated or something. Some of them are convinced that Biden will die any day now, but they don't think there's any other way he won't be in the general.

CBJSprague24
Dec 5, 2010

another game at nationwide arena. everybody keeps asking me if they can fuck the cannon. buddy, they don't even let me fuck it

Trump is currently +29, which seems like something he's not going to be thrilled with.

DeSantis is second at 21.4%.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

lightpole posted:

Harris is probably the one person with worse numbers than Biden. Its too late for Biden not to run but switching VPs would only help his numbers.

Comedy option: Biden passes away, Harris assumes the duties of presidency, but the DNC still chooses someone else to head the ticket. She stays on as VP.

Elviscat
Jan 1, 2008

Well don't you know I'm caught in a trap?

We've been dealing with the coldest temperatures our region's seen in 70 odd years, our local utility asked people to turn their thermostats down a bit, and the chuds are losing their minds at the prospect of having to put a sweater on. Our local Sinclair owned fuckstick media has been eagerly egging them on, blaming it on our State's tiny proportion of wind power. It's really frustrating.



Kazinsal
Dec 13, 2011

lightpole posted:

Harris is probably the one person with worse numbers than Biden. Its too late for Biden not to run but switching VPs would only help his numbers.

Has that ever happened, switching away from an incumbent VP on the ticket for an incumbent president? Seems like it’d be the kind of catastrophic thing that would tank a run.

hobbesmaster
Jan 28, 2008

Kazinsal posted:

Has that ever happened, switching away from an incumbent VP on the ticket for an incumbent president? Seems like it’d be the kind of catastrophic thing that would tank a run.

I wanted to say something bizarre like that happened before the civil war between the splintering of the democratic-republicans and the Whigs being the Whigs but I may have been remembering Tyler being elected a member of the confederate house which feels like an even crazier “demotion”.

edit: wait, I mangled that with an ascended VP->president->VP. Replacing VPs has happened with reasonable regularity.

hobbesmaster fucked around with this message at 05:15 on Jan 16, 2024

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

Kazinsal posted:

Has that ever happened, switching away from an incumbent VP on the ticket for an incumbent president? Seems like it’d be the kind of catastrophic thing that would tank a run.

Yeah, several times. It's not super common, but it's not unheard of. Some were pretty consequential, such as Abraham Lincoln changing VPs, then being assassinated, leading Andrew Johnson to be president. FDR had 3 different VPs, one of whom ran against him for the nomination while he still was the VP, which he lost, and was not invited back to run as VP in the general.

E: anything before the 12th amendment doesn't count.

bulletsponge13
Apr 28, 2010

Get ready for the IA caucus conspiracy theories, and how he had so many more votes than Ron, and the deep state stole them.

"It's not just the Dems who are out to steal this election from me, folks."

Cool Dad
Jun 15, 2007

It is always Friday night, motherfuckers

bulletsponge13 posted:

Get ready for the IA caucus conspiracy theories, and how he had so many more votes than Ron, and the deep state stole them.

"It's not just the Dems who are out to steal this election from me, folks."

Nah, he'll just lie and exaggerate his lead, claiming he had the biggest margin of anyone in Iowa ever and the governor called him crying he was so moved

Terrifying Effigies
Oct 22, 2008

Problems look mighty small from 150 miles up.

FDR had three separate VPs (John Garner, Henry Wallace, and Truman), plus Lincoln famously switched from Hannibal Hamlin to Andrew Johnson for his second term.

Edit fb

bulletsponge13
Apr 28, 2010

Just spitballing a dumb thought train to smarter people- I haven't heard of any VP candidates for this Trump run. I hope he runs with Mike 'Lumpy Pillow' Lindell What happens if he runs and no one wants to be his VP? How would one be assigned? Do we have a provision or plan for that scenario?

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS
Trump said last week, of his running mate,

“I know who it’s going to be”, but when asked for a name responded “I can't tell you that really.”

lightpole
Jun 4, 2004
I think that MBAs are useful, in case you are looking for an answer to the question of "Is lightpole a total fucking idiot".

Platystemon posted:

Comedy option: Biden passes away, Harris assumes the duties of presidency, but the DNC still chooses someone else to head the ticket. She stays on as VP.

I wouldn't be surprised. She has one of the lowest approval ratings out of any VP and is in charge of immigration. Justified or not, people hate her. They took an unlikable person and gave her a losing issue.

Elviscat
Jan 1, 2008

Well don't you know I'm caught in a trap?

I can't think of another VP, going back to Gore, with less of a voice or media presence either, which is weird since she's not a terrible public speaker.

Kesper North
Nov 3, 2011

EMERGENCY POWER TO PARTY

Elviscat posted:

We've been dealing with the coldest temperatures our region's seen in 70 odd years, our local utility asked people to turn their thermostats down a bit, and the chuds are losing their minds at the prospect of having to put a sweater on. Our local Sinclair owned fuckstick media has been eagerly egging them on, blaming it on our State's tiny proportion of wind power. It's really frustrating.





The utility even has a good reason for it, PSE said it was because major NG storage facility in eastern WA had rats in their fiber closet or something and they had to revert to manual operations until it's fixed.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

Kesper North posted:

The utility even has a good reason for it, PSE said it was because major NG storage facility in eastern WA had rats in their fiber closet or something and they had to revert to manual operations until it's fixed.

Sounds like somebody needs a party of level‐one adventurers.

bulletsponge13
Apr 28, 2010

Platystemon posted:

Sounds like somebody needs a party of level‐one adventurers.

I am a first level Barbarian...

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

Cugel the Clever posted:

Comedy option: both candidates pass away from genuinely natural causes on 4 November. Country goes utterly insane with conspiracy theories; street violence flares up on election day, hampering people's attempts to exercise their franchise and impeding the tallying of votes; Congress rejects the flawed electoral count of president-elect Harris or Kennedy.

this is my best case scenario, total calvinball can't be a worse outcome than these farts

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

lightpole posted:

I wouldn't be surprised. She has one of the lowest approval ratings out of any VP and is in charge of immigration. Justified or not, people hate her. They took an unlikable person and gave her a losing issue.

A couple years ago she was keynote speaker at the SCDP convention banquet and showed up four hours late.

The secret service wouldn't let the caterers serve dinner until she left. Many enemies were made that night.

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AreWeDrunkYet
Jul 8, 2006

shame on an IGA posted:

A couple years ago she was keynote speaker at the SCDP convention banquet and showed up four hours late.

The secret service wouldn't let the caterers serve dinner until she left. Many enemies were made that night.

Not discounting that she has her flaws, but the electorate sure does seem quick to jump on women politicians. Like Clinton was also obviously personally flawed, but the level of personal vitriol she got way surpassed any number of scumbags who happened to be men.

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