|
U.S. forces recovered Iranian warheads in Navy SEAL mission gone awry https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/01/15/navy-seals-missing-iran-warheads/ quote:American military personnel recovered Iranian-made missile warheads and related components during a ship-boarding mission near Somalia last week that disrupted the weapons resupply of militants in Yemen but left two elite Navy SEALs lost at sea, U.S. defense officials said. A couple of Navy Seals have gone missing after one fell off the ladder boarding the boat and the other jumped in to help. They haven't called off the search yet, but I can't imagine it going well at this point.
|
#
?
Jan 16, 2024 15:55
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 23, 2024 13:07 |
|
|
ummel posted:U.S. forces recovered Iranian warheads in Navy SEAL mission gone awry Not enough blubber to keep body temperature, sad consequence of overfishing.
|
|
#
?
Jan 16, 2024 16:16
|
|
|
V. Illych L. posted:my position is that this spectrum of postures is functionally the same posture. if the organisation's political base and backing is premised on it supporting palestine - and as far as i can tell it is at least in part - then it doesn't matter if the politburo members in their hearts care about palestine at all. in practice, the organisation is sincerely pro-palestine. if the americans brought israel to heel, i think that the houthis would bang their chests and claim at least partial credit regardless of their actual assessment of the situation, and cease their blockade. whether this is because they sincerely believe in this stuff or because they've lost their political cover is not really relevant imo. they have tied their attacks on shipping explicitly to palestine, so it would be a hard sell to back down without some movement on the palestinian issue. if they get their stated demand, it's hard to keep provoking the americans for no obvious reason. this is similar to any other organisation exerting power. Didn't see this at the time but this is a fair enough take - even if you disagree over how to interpret the underlying intent, that's just reading tea leaves, and the support does seem to be overt and direct (and may have an impact). Tias posted:That is kinda the angle. The houthis are terrible people who may have instigated pogroms against civilians themselves, but even the worst people can have a sensible notion - even if it's just to whitewash their own regime. Yeah this is basically my position. If it actually has an impact and puts enough direct pressure on Israel (or indirect international pressure) to stop the ongoing literal genocide then despite my personal distaste for them it is probably worth it - even if I can't bring myself to 'hand it to them' for personal reasons*. * Former partner is an aid worker who had very bad experiences with their regime and their actions toward certain groups - why I find some of the more unconditional/uncritical support that some people (not everyone - some have more nuanced takes) expressed toward them hard to swallow.
|
|
#
?
Jan 16, 2024 17:53
|
|
|
I'm sorry but this is doesn't make any sense for a number of reasons. Houthis have been engaging in piracy and attacks on shipping for years, their statements mean jack poo poo, they aren't meaningfully affecting change, and they're attacking civilians that have nothing to do with Israel. Let's do a thought experiment. How many russians (or hell, absolute randos) am I allowed to kidnap and murder?
|
|
#
?
Jan 16, 2024 21:01
|
|
|
mobby_6kl posted:I'm sorry but this is doesn't make any sense for a number of reasons. Houthis have been engaging in piracy and attacks on shipping for years, their statements mean jack poo poo, they aren't meaningfully affecting change, and they're attacking civilians that have nothing to do with Israel. Their actions are directly causing economic pain for Israel. You are certainly free to assert their true motivations are self-serving, but their actions have had a measurable impact
|
|
#
?
Jan 16, 2024 21:31
|
|
|
A big flaming stink posted:Their actions are directly causing economic pain for Israel. You are certainly free to assert their true motivations are self-serving, but their actions have had a measurable impact So you're saying the ends justify the means?
|
|
#
?
Jan 16, 2024 22:25
|
|
|
Rust Martialis posted:So you're saying the ends justify the means? Yes I think lightly damaging a few ships and taking a crew into custody is justifiable if puts pressure on the US to pull support from Israel as its killing tens of thousands.
|
|
#
?
Jan 16, 2024 22:48
|
|
|
adebisi lives posted:Yes I think trying to murder and kidnap unconnected crewmen is justifiable if puts pressure on the US to pull support from Israel as its killing tens of thousands. If you're going to be in favor of something lovely, at least be honest about it.
|
|
#
?
Jan 16, 2024 23:00
|
|
|
adebisi lives posted:Yes I think lightly damaging a few ships and taking a crew into custody is justifiable if puts pressure on the US to pull support from Israel as its killing tens of thousands. It isn't.
|
|
#
?
Jan 16, 2024 23:03
|
|
|
mobby_6kl posted:I'm sorry but this is doesn't make any sense for a number of reasons. Houthis have been engaging in piracy and attacks on shipping for years, their statements mean jack poo poo, they aren't meaningfully affecting change, and they're attacking civilians that have nothing to do with Israel. so you think the timing of prosperity guardian is completely random, then, or what?
|
|
#
?
Jan 16, 2024 23:33
|
|
|
V. Illych L. posted:so you think the timing of prosperity guardian is completely random, then, or what? Personally I’m guessing it’s timed because the houthis are attacking neutral ships. Just like the last time this happened. Which, incidentally, made them stop for several years.
|
|
#
?
Jan 16, 2024 23:55
|
|
|
Edgar Allen Ho posted:Personally I’m guessing it’s timed because the houthis are attacking neutral ships. Just like the last time this happened. Which, incidentally, made them stop for several years. two things here: are you suggesting that the US assisting in blockading yemen was because of piracy concerns, or are you referring to something else here? also, since there has apparently been a recent change in houthi behaviour, do you think that this change is obviously entirely unconnected to the situation in gaza? the quoted post seems to suggest that there has, in fact, been no such change in houthi behaviour - at least that seems to me like the most straightforward reading - the continuity of behaviour is what's being emphasised in that post, i.e. "have been engaging(...) for years" seems to me to imply that there has been no change.
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 00:10
|
|
|
adebisi lives posted:Yes I think lightly damaging a few ships and taking a crew into custody is justifiable if puts pressure on the US to pull support from Israel as its killing tens of thousands. Anti-ship missiles are well known for limiting themselves to lightly damaging a few ships, and have a 0% chance of killing crew members.
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 00:15
|
|
|
V. Illych L. posted:so you think the timing of prosperity guardian is completely random, then, or what? What would the alternative explanation be
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 00:16
|
|
|
golden bubble posted:Anti-ship missiles are well known for limiting themselves to lightly damaging a few ships, and have a 0% chance of killing crew members. That's a standard far beyond what the American, Turkish, and Israeli militaries are held to so I'm not sure why everyone is getting so bent out of shape about this.
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 01:43
|
|
|
adebisi lives posted:That's a standard far beyond what the American, Turkish, and Israeli militaries are held to so I'm not sure why everyone is getting so bent out of shape about this. If that's how you really feel then you shouldn't have any issue with announcing your love one or all three of those militaries.
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 04:32
|
|
|
This whole thing is just that Onion "The worst person you know just made a great point" meme. The Houthis suck but they keep clowning on other people who also suck so I reserve the right to consider them hilarious until they inevitably decide to start throwing babies into a pit for being gay or something. Also if I had anti-shipping missiles you better believe I'd be launching them at every ship I saw so I can't blame them.
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 05:02
|
|
|
Rent-A-Cop posted:The Houthis suck but they keep clowning on other people who also suck so I reserve the right to consider them hilarious until they inevitably decide to start throwing babies into a pit for being gay or something. Are child soldiers and child
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 07:20
|
|
|
Cicero posted:??? "The ends justify the means" apparently covers that too.
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 07:42
|
|
|
At this point I'd theorize that Houthi Yemen is getting 1980s Gaddafian Libya type PR. All I need to confirm that is for Yemen to ship a SAM to a gang in Chicago...
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 07:49
|
|
|
Rent-A-Cop posted:This whole thing is just that Onion "The worst person you know just made a great point" meme. The Houthis suck but they keep clowning on other people who also suck so I reserve the right to consider them hilarious until they inevitably decide to start throwing babies into a pit for being gay or something. I can give you three guesses for how the Houthis treat homosexuals.
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 08:16
|
|
|
golden bubble posted:I can give you three guesses for how the Houthis treat homosexuals. Free tiaras?
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 08:19
|
|
|
V. Illych L. posted:two things here: I’m suggesting that there hasn’t been a recent change in houthi behaviour because it’s what they’ve been doing and the « we are defeating genocide » is a current geopolitical win Didn’t read the rest of your post because going to go get ready for some training in a sunni *gasp* majority country military as an *oh my gently caress* christian that thinks Hamas is alright and the houthis can eat poo poo (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 08:23
|
|
|
Meanwhile, Iran has been making air strikes inside Pakistan, killing 2 children according to the reports. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/16/iran-launches-airstrikes-on-sunni-militant-bases-in-pakistan
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 08:33
|
|
|
Edgar Allen Ho posted:I’m suggesting that there hasn’t been a recent change in houthi behaviour because it’s what they’ve been doing and the « we are defeating genocide » is a current geopolitical win but what you just posted implies that there was a change in houthi behaviour which triggered a change in US/UK behaviour: "(...)timed because the houthis are attacking neutral ships. Just like the last time this happened". i'm not sure specifically what "the last time" was and what response you're referring to, so i asked for a clarification which i note is not forthcoming. that's ok, but it makes it difficult to engage with your position you seem to be under the impression that i'm arguing that the houthis are highly moral actors or something. this is not the case. what i'm arguing is that they're a political actor and must be analysed as such. "good" or "bad" is very much downstream of this, i'm just arguing for an analytical framework here. "the houthis are bad guys" does not imply "the houthi agenda is entirely unrelated to israel/palestine" Plastic_Gargoyle posted:What would the alternative explanation be that there has been an uptick in houthi attacks against shipping which is trying to serve some political end, an end which in my opinion probably has something to do with what's going on in palestine because that's what the houthis themselves are asserting, and at least some shipping insurance companies appear to be taking them more or less at their word: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-16/insurers-seek-to-exclude-us-uk-ships-from-red-sea-cover
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 09:54
|
|
|
adebisi lives posted:Yes I think lightly damaging a few ships and taking a crew into custody is justifiable if puts pressure on the US to pull support from Israel as its killing tens of thousands. "taking a crew into custody" is a very unusual way of phrasing the reality of "kidnapping civilians at gunpoint and holding them hostage".
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 14:10
|
|
|
Rent-A-Cop posted:Also if I had anti-shipping missiles you better believe I'd be launching them at every ship I saw so I can't blame them. come on, fandom didn't burn you that hard, did it
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 14:17
|
|
|
In the raid on the Yemeni boat that saw 2 Navy Seals die the US took on 14 hostages; perhaps a hostage exchange of sorts could be devised. America wants cheap trade, Yemen wants America to stop facilitating the mass genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians, let's work something out from there.
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 14:39
|
|
|
Apparently the Houthis *still* have Taiz under siege - although I can’t tell if that has changed with the recent semi-ceasefire, but it was still ongoing last summer ( https://www.arabnews.com/node/2338366/amp ) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Taiz Maybe the Houthis can stop firing rockets in exchange for also lifting their siege on a civilian, Muslim population, improving humanitarian conditions. Win-win. Or more likely they think it’s okay that they are sieging civilians in Taiz, because those are bad people, unlike the good civilians being brutally sieged in Gaza. But yeah go ahead and celebrate the righteous Houthis and their wonderful attacks on Filipino seamen.
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 15:10
|
|
|
Neurolimal posted:In the raid on the Yemeni boat that saw 2 Navy Seals die the US took on 14 hostages; perhaps a hostage exchange of sorts could be devised. America wants cheap trade, Yemen wants America to stop facilitating the mass genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians, let's work something out from there. Smuggling weapons generally gets you the designation of prisoner, not hostage.
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 15:10
|
|
|
ummel posted:Smuggling weapons generally gets you the designation of prisoner, not hostage. What happened to the principle of freedom of navigation??? I guess Iranians aren't eligible for this important norm and standard.
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 15:45
|
|
|
ummel posted:Smuggling weapons generally gets you the designation of prisoner, not hostage. Why should a US embargo against either apply to trade between them? Is it smuggling if both parties want it to happen? This is basically the Jesus Christ consent meme. I'd also point out that Yemen has invoked international statutes against enabling genocide; what should crewmen apprehended in service of those articles qualify as? https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1743502299115159926?s=20 Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 16:04 on Jan 17, 2024 |
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 16:01
|
|
|
Neurolimal posted:Why should a US embargo against either apply to trade between them? Is it smuggling if both parties want it to happen? This is basically the Jesus Christ consent meme. The arms embargo was put in place by the UNSC, not the US, and renewed several times with zero vetoes from Iran's partner Russia, most recently in resolution 2722. I'm not going to get into the targeting discussion at the moment.
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 16:16
|
|
|
Kagrenak posted:The arms embargo was put in place by the UNSC, not the US, and renewed several times with zero vetoes from Iran's partner Russia, most recently in resolution 2722. Is the implication of this supposed to be that whether or not a country is under an "embargo" relies on the whims of Russia?
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 16:43
|
|
|
adebisi lives posted:Is the implication of this supposed to be that whether or not a country is under an "embargo" relies on the whims of Russia? Not in an affirmative sense but it easily could've been blocked at their whim. The implication which I was going for is that it certainly isn't a "US embargo"
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 17:04
|
|
|
adebisi lives posted:What happened to the principle of freedom of navigation??? I guess Iranians aren't eligible for this important norm and standard. "According to an anonymous US military official," which lol, ya know how truthful that is. quote:The dhow’s crew lacked official documentation, which allowed the U.S. boarding team to search the vessel, said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive military mission. U.S. forces recovered Iranian warheads in Navy SEAL mission gone awry https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/01/15/navy-seals-missing-iran-warheads/
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 18:31
|
|
|
A big flaming stink posted:Their actions are directly causing economic pain for Israel. You are certainly free to assert their true motivations are self-serving, but their actions have had a measurable impact We've cost russia billions if not trillions of dollars with sanctions but they keep on genociding. Because they think they just have to defeat the trans nazis so they'll just keep trying, unless someone actually bombs the poo poo out of them. Yet, I feel like mudering russian civilians or, say, Indian or Chinese nationals that are engaged in trade and supply, would be frowned upon. V. Illych L. posted:so you think the timing of prosperity guardian is completely random, then, or what? adebisi lives posted:Is the implication of this supposed to be that whether or not a country is under an "embargo" relies on the whims of Russia?
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 18:37
|
|
|
mobby_6kl posted:No the attacks and resposne probably escaleted together with the entire situation in the middle east now that they had a good excuse to attack more ships. Iran's now directly bombing Iraq and Pakistan now too and certanly continues to encourage and supply their Houthi buddies. Both of which have "death of Israel" as their explicit goals. ok, so then it is connected to the israel/palestinian conflict. settling that question would take away their excuse to escalate and so probably make maintaining their present quite aggressive posture more politically difficult. therefore, they are in fact exerting pressure on the world community to settle the ongoing conflict. they have signalled certain terms which they claim they'd find reasonable (from what i've seen: "crimes in Gaza stop and food, medicines and fuel are allowed to reach its besieged population", per https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/19/yemens-houthis-will-not-stop-red-sea-attacks-until-israel-stops-gaza-war); i also find those terms reasonable. since we have now, at last, established that it is rational to believe that there is some causal link between the ongoing mayhem in palestine and houthi activity, that means that they are exerting pressure towards ending the mayhem in palestine by engaging in these acts. the reasonable terms seem to me to give a lot of room for the houthis to claim some of the prestige of saving gaza if that happens, to save face if gaza is annihilated, or to back down without losing too much prestige if need be. this is typical of a political actor attempting to position itself strongly without being backed into a corner. one does not have to accept that saving gaza is their primary or ultimate intent (though i note that beyond "they're evil" or "they're controlled by iran, which is evil" no coherent alternative account has to my knowledge been proposed), or that these are acceptable means to go about trying to save gaza, in order to accept that the houthis are right now doing more than just about anyone else to exert pressure on the relevant authorities to try and resolve the situation. one can even dispute the efficiacy of this approach for various reasons. all of these are interesting conversations to have, but they require us to start from the premise that there is some de-facto link between the houthi's present actions and the ongoing crisis in palestine rather than the premise that this has nothing to do with that situation. whether the houthi leadership in their hearts and minds care about gaza is not only irrelevant but literally unknowable to anyone but themselves. we must analyse the organisation's behaviour based on some form account of rationality and the available information. to this end, they're engaging in behaviour (ramping up attacks against shipping) which could be rationally expected to increase pressure on israel and its allies, and saying that they're doing it to increase pressure on israel and its allies. doing this also makes political sense for the houthis as political actors - championing palestine is a popular and prestigious role to have in the arab world, and it means that they get to use their core competency of war to increase their stature and position without sacrificing anything really important - their relationship with the US-led bloc is already terrible and they are clearly able to suffer losses without too much grief. therefore, absent a compelling other motive, it's reasonable to assume that they are, in fact, putting pressure on israel and its allies and will relent if their stated demands are fulfilled. is this worth it? is it likely to be effective? maybe, maybe not. certainly an analysis of other actors involved, especially the americans, give reason to believe that it may not be effective. does that make it wrong? perhaps! there are many interesting discussions to have, if and only if we're accepting that the houthis are in fact doing this to apply pressure on israel and its allies. this raises further questions about what "we" should do about it. on the one hand, backing down would be a blow to US prestige and is opposed to what the US policymaking elite clearly sees as its interest in the region. for my own part, i politically support the same cause as the houthis here and am not very invested in US prestige, so the course of action is the same as it ever was - argue for a halt to armaments to israel and force them back to a peace process with some teeth, which i think would also solve the present emergency in the red sea. the military attempt at a solution (degrade the houthis' capacity for such strikes through aviation and naval bombardment) is in my view both less likely to be effective and more costly for humanity. one can say that this poses a problem of perverse incentives wrt threatening blockade when one has a sufficiently popular political cause, but i don't really think that that is going to be a big problem. this analysis could be wrong! it could be that gaza is resolved and the houthis keep hitting ships. then mliitary action may be the only solution apart from redirecting most traffic from the suez canal for some time. but i think, as i have argued, that that is an unlikely scenario.
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 19:48
|
|
|
V. Illych L. posted:
You're justifying randomly spraying bullets and shooting missiles at innocent third parties, as long as the people doing it say it's for a cause that you support. The only reason there haven't been more casualties is a combination of the unsuitability of the missiles for the job and the navy actively shooting them down. There is approximately zero chance of the attacks impacting Israel either militarily or politically. Should the attacks succeed at forcing traffic away from the Red Sea, the only nation that will be materially harmed is Egypt. Capitulating to piracy and hostage taking also encourages its use in the future, regardless of the perceived righteousness of its cause.
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 20:22
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 23, 2024 13:07 |
|
|
TheDeadlyShoe posted:There is approximately zero chance of the attacks impacting Israel either militarily or politically. Why?
|
|
#
?
Jan 17, 2024 20:27
|
|
