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The Houthis getting attacked until they could no longer do this was the only possible outcome. The harm their actions are causing to Israel are nowhere near great enough to cause Israel to stop, and from any other country's perspective it's very unlikely that any pressure they applied to Israel would cause them to stop, and then even if it somehow did there's still a reasonable chance the Houthis just keep attacking anyway and change to another demand. And from Biden's perspective selling Israel out to appease a stated mortal enemy of Israel would just lead to a new record for the biggest electoral loss in US history. Meanwhile just dropping bombs on and blockading Yemen is a far more direct and guaranteed solution, which is probably why the UN is happy to let it happen.
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Jan 17, 2024 20:28
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Gnumonic posted:Why? Because Israel clearly doesn't give a poo poo what other people think, even the USA.
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Jan 17, 2024 20:45
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:You're justifying randomly spraying bullets and shooting missiles at innocent third parties, as long as the people doing it say it's for a cause that you support. The only reason there haven't been more casualties is a combination of the unsuitability of the missiles for the job and the navy actively shooting them down. There is approximately zero chance of the attacks impacting Israel either militarily or politically. Should the attacks succeed at forcing traffic away from the Red Sea, the only nation that will be materially harmed is Egypt. i'm explicitly not justifying that in the post you're quoting. i'm saying that imo the price of a political solution is well worth the alternative price, which is a military campaign of dubious effectiveness and/or likely unacceptable humanitarian costs. what i am saying is that such a justification has its place in a discussion. to be clear, my position was that israel should be made to stand down well before the houthis started hitting ships, and in my opinion the houthis hitting ships only adds another problem which is solved best by my preferred policy. i therefore don't have to grapple with the moral aspects of this stuff at all. i would have prefered if the israelis were stopped before the houthis started their actions; i would prefer for the houthis to stop now that they have started; i happily see those two outcomes as linked, with relatively limited costs added to anything i think it's reasonable to care about. i have tried not to really opine on the justification debate at all, because i don't have a strong position on it and certainly not one which i'm willing to defend in the context of posting in D&D. what i do have a strong position on, as i have noted earlier, is the nature of the houthi movement as a political entity, the causal connection (or at least it being reasonable to believe that there is such a connection) between the war in gaza and houthi attacks on shipping and my position on the war in gaza. i have a somewhat weaker position, but still one i'm willing to present, on the practicality of US military intervention as a means to halt houthi military activity in the red sea. on the flip side of the (probably real!) moral hazard you point out is the continued unaccountability of israel as it does its own crimes. to my knowledge the houthis still haven't actually killed any human beings in the present anti-shipping campaign, though they obviously could have; the israelis are well into the five digits. this is a lovely situation all around, but the response must not be to let israel do whatever it wants so long as the houthis are still active, which would be the logical extreme of your position. finally, if traffic is redirected across the cape of good hope for any length of time the pain is absolutely not going to be limited to egypt. i would note, however, that before the US and UK made their recent series of strikes in yemen, a lot of traffic was still headed through; US+ action seems to, at least in the short term, have made this situation worse: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/combined-maritime-forces-warns-ships-avoid-bab-al-mandab-strait-intertanko-2024-01-12/. Irony Be My Shield posted:The Houthis getting attacked until they could no longer do this was the only possible outcome. The harm their actions are causing to Israel are nowhere near great enough to cause Israel to stop, and from any other country's perspective it's very unlikely that any pressure they applied to Israel would cause them to stop, and then even if it somehow did there's still a reasonable chance the Houthis just keep attacking anyway and change to another demand. And from Biden's perspective selling Israel out to appease a stated mortal enemy of Israel would just lead to a new record for the biggest electoral loss in US history. Meanwhile just dropping bombs on and blockading Yemen is a far more direct and guaranteed solution, which is probably why the UN is happy to let it happen. what's your source on the UN being "happy to let it happen"? the security council has adopted a resolution condemning the houthis' activities, but nothing there authorises military force except to "intercept attacks against merchant ships" in the comments from one of the members rather than the text itself: https://press.un.org/en/2024/sc15561.doc.htm the same text also quote:Urges caution and restraint to avoid further escalation of the situation in the Red Sea and the broader region, and encourages enhanced diplomatic efforts by all parties to that end, including continued support for dialogue and Yemen’s peace process under the UN auspices;" i also doubt that the US+ have enough ordnance in the theater to meaningfully suppress the houthis for any length of time. they seem to be dependent on ship-borne systems, while the houthis themselves can in principle just use drones, rockets and speedboats - they also held out against the very large and US-directed coalition air force for some time, emerging stronger after that bombardment was over. in my view, these are sufficient evidence to at the very least sow some seeds of doubt as to the practicality of the present US policy here.
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Jan 17, 2024 21:03
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i know nothing about iranian-pakistani relations, does anyone know if the insurgency that iran targeted in their strikes fall more into the camp of "pakistan can't exercise full control over its territory" or "pakistan views it as a geopolitical plus to have a neighbor dealing with a cross border insurgency"? (my assumption based on the historical example of afghanistan is that it's going to end up being some element of both) i'm not clear if this is developing out of long running tension, or if this is an abrupt shift in relations due to the terrorist attack
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Jan 17, 2024 21:32
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Gnumonic posted:Why? There are some deeply souless capitalists that have crunched the numbers. Even if the houthi's blockade were three times more effective, the economic impact on Israel would still be small compared to the economic damage from Israel's own large scale mobilization. Those IDF reservists have normal jobs, and the mobilization means hundreds of thousands of them are currently blowing up poo poo in Gaza instead of doing anything productive. That's a serious cost for a country that only has a bit over 9 million citizens. Now, the rest of the world will certainly notice if the red sea blockade gets worse, but when has the Israeli government cared about the rest of the world? V. Illych L. posted:i also doubt that the US+ have enough ordnance in the theater to meaningfully suppress the houthis for any length of time. they seem to be dependent on ship-borne systems, while the houthis themselves can in principle just use drones, rockets and speedboats - they also held out against the very large and US-directed coalition air force for some time, emerging stronger after that bombardment was over. in my view, these are sufficient evidence to at the very least sow some seeds of doubt as to the practicality of the present US policy here. The Houthis were slowly but steadily losing coastal territory throughout 2017-18. They came very close to losing their last port to the Saudi coalition, and Yemen's population needs imports. They turned it around because Saudi bombs and UAE mercenaries were going to annihilate that port in the process of capturing it, and the US and other countries didn't want to see an even bigger humanitarian crisis from Yemen losing a vital port when it's already short of food and water. After the US and other international groups forced them to stop, the UAE basically gave up in disgust and declared no more ground expeditions. And while the UAE ground forces could, and did beat the Houthis in straight fights, Saudi ground forces can't.
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Jan 17, 2024 22:08
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golden bubble posted:There are some deeply souless capitalists that have crunched the numbers. Even if the houthi's blockade were three times more effective, the economic impact on Israel would still be small compared to the economic damage from Israel's own large scale mobilization. Those IDF reservists have normal jobs, and the mobilization means hundreds of thousands of them are currently blowing up poo poo in Gaza instead of doing anything productive. That's a serious cost for a country that only has a bit over 9 million citizens. Now, the rest of the world will certainly notice if the red sea blockade gets worse, but when has the Israeli government cared about the rest of the world? Yeah it might impact the Israeli economy but if Israel prioritized the best economic policies they wouldn't have opted for an apartheid state in the first place. Subjugating and controlling Palestinians is clearly more important. The question related to politics and military though. On the political side there's little evidence that what the Houthis are doing will make Israelis oppose the war in Gaza or make Americans want to cut ties with Israel. Militarily it's not obvious what Israel needs that must be transported by ship through the Suez.
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Jan 17, 2024 23:12
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:You're justifying randomly spraying bullets and shooting missiles at innocent third parties, as long as the people doing it say it's for a cause that you support. The only reason there haven't been more casualties is a combination of the unsuitability of the missiles for the job and the navy actively shooting them down. There is approximately zero chance of the attacks impacting Israel either militarily or politically. Should the attacks succeed at forcing traffic away from the Red Sea, the only nation that will be materially harmed is Egypt. Spraying bullets and rockets at random innocent third parties and saying it will stop when Israel stops their murderfrenzy, is of course awful behavior the world should do without. It will work though if it makes a major backer (USA) or passive facilitators (China, EU, Arab countries) of Israels rampage more hesitant to support Israel or ignore the conflict in favor of Israel. I highly doubt it will actually work in any measurable way except for giving a regressive regime international influence and regional brownie points but there is a rationale for it influencing the conflict.
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Jan 17, 2024 23:13
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Israel is losing a wild amount of money off the war, as well as hemmorhaging dual-citizens. It's not likely to do the job by itself, but anything that additionally shutters Israeli business, cuts Israeli jobs, and compels more return voyages will help if your goal is to nonviolently compel Israel to stop (which, so long as America is openly supporting mass slaughter, is the only real way to stop the bombing). It's definitely not going to single-handedly save Gaza, but it's definitely having an impact; Biden & co. wouldn't be defying the more pragmatic officials pleading with them not to escalate if it wasn't inconveniencing Israel & embarassing the west. Had a glib thought earlier: it's kind of wild how this thread has evolved. At one point you only needed a French tabloid to say Libyan soldiers were about to obliterate a village to believe such. Now one must glimpse into the mind's eye of a guy in green and red saying "we are acting in accordance to article 1 of the Genocide Conventions to prevent a genocide against Palestinians. We will not stop until the genocide against Palestinians stops." Before we can truly determine that the blockade is I/P inspired.
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Jan 17, 2024 23:27
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Gnumonic posted:Why? [does it have little chance of influencing Israeli behavior] The attacks aren't really applying any direct economic harm to Israel. And even if they did suddenly completely block all Israel linked traffic, there's not much that's going south anyway. Israel trades a bit with China and India, but mostly with Europe/US (not through the canal). They're also not very good as general extortion because the Houthis have been opportunistically attacking ships in the area for a long time (just at a slower tempo). If there was a ceasefire today, it's not really credible that the attacks would stop long term, since they started long before this recent batch of fighting in Gaza. As far as support/condemnation, I see it as similar to if there was a hypothetical group of protestors camping out near random US freeways, taking potshots at passing trucks with rifles, and saying "We will continue until there's a ceasefire in Gaza". I'd be okay with government force to stop that, even if this hypothetical group's motives were 100% ideologically pure and they were making an attempt to only shoot truck trailers instead of the drivers.
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Jan 17, 2024 23:28
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Foxfire_ posted:They're also not very good as general extortion because the Houthis have been opportunistically attacking ships in the area for a long time (just at a slower tempo). If there was a ceasefire today, it's not really credible that the attacks would stop long term, since they started long before this recent batch of fighting in Gaza. This keeps being said, but the only examples put forth have literally been Saudi ships or a Turkish ship at a Saudi port, during a Saudi-led war of extinction against Yemen.
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Jan 17, 2024 23:32
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golden bubble posted:The Houthis were slowly but steadily losing coastal territory throughout 2017-18. They came very close to losing their last port to the Saudi coalition, and Yemen's population needs imports. They turned it around because Saudi bombs and UAE mercenaries were going to annihilate that port in the process of capturing it, and the US and other countries didn't want to see an even bigger humanitarian crisis from Yemen losing a vital port when it's already short of food and water. After the US and other international groups forced them to stop, the UAE basically gave up in disgust and declared no more ground expeditions. And while the UAE ground forces could, and did beat the Houthis in straight fights, Saudi ground forces can't. i don't see the US and friends engaging in a ground campaign against the houthis as on the table, but here i may be mistaken
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Jan 17, 2024 23:50
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V. Illych L. posted:i don't see the US and friends engaging in a ground campaign against the houthis as on the table, but here i may be mistaken Maybe if the Houthi attacks somehow ramp up and kill more people, Biden could get away with embedding a smaller number of troops in an allied force, like in Syria, but even that is pushing it imo.
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Jan 18, 2024 00:31
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V. Illych L. posted:i don't see the US and friends engaging in a ground campaign against the houthis as on the table, but here i may be mistaken I don't see it either. I think they'd cut a deal sooner than invade Yemen. And you know what the Houthis probably think the same.
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Jan 18, 2024 01:47
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We'll just do airstrikes for awhile until they can declare 'mission accomplished' and leave
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Jan 18, 2024 03:32
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Remember how Iran launched missiles at targets in Pakistan a few days back? https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1747805708823724058?s=20 Also the IRGC murdered a rich kurd for reasons I don't understand. Wonder if they are also going to retaliate soon? https://twitter.com/FazelHawramy/status/1747020242138657069 golden bubble fucked around with this message at 03:58 on Jan 18, 2024 |
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Jan 18, 2024 03:46
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If the Iranians strike back, this has the potential to spiral completely out of control. As for the Houthis and the Red Sea, I thought Bret Deveraux had a good post on it over at his blog. https://acoup.blog/2024/01/12/fireside-friday-january-12-2024/ Charlz Guybon fucked around with this message at 07:10 on Jan 18, 2024 |
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Jan 18, 2024 06:59
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Iran was in the middle of conducting a joint military exercise with Pakistan when they launched their strike. I feel like Iran getting into an escalating conflict with a nuclear armed power on its border should be getting more attention than it seems to be.
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Jan 18, 2024 07:40
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Neurolimal posted:This keeps being said, but the only examples put forth have literally been Saudi ships or a Turkish ship at a Saudi port, during a Saudi-led war of extinction against Yemen. Ships linked to former Turkish PM continued to deliver goods to Israel during Gaza conflict www.turkishminute.com - Fri, 01 Dec 2023 posted:According to an investigative journalist citing data from maritime tracking websites, a shipping company with close links to former Turkish prime minister Binali Yıldırım, a close confidant of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, continued to send cargo to and from Israel during the height of the conflict in October and November – despite the Turkish government’s harsh anti-Israel rhetoric. Turkish exports to Israel rose by 34.8 pct from November to December - Turkish Minute www.turkishminute.com - Thu, 04 Jan 2024 posted:The Turkish (R) and Israeli flags are pictured before a meeting between the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu and Israeli businessmen, in the coastal city of Tel Aviv, on May 25, 2022. www.turkishminute.com - Mon, 15 Jan 2024 posted:Contrary to Ankara’s political rhetoric on the war in the Palestinian enclave of Gaza, Turkish imports from Israel rose by 60.5 percent from October to November, according to official figures, as the country’s trade relations with Tel Aviv come under scrutiny.
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Jan 18, 2024 09:18
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a pipe smoking dog posted:Iran was in the middle of conducting a joint military exercise with Pakistan when they launched their strike.
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Jan 18, 2024 12:20
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a pipe smoking dog posted:Iran was in the middle of conducting a joint military exercise with Pakistan when they launched their strike. I feel like Iran getting into an escalating conflict with a nuclear armed power on its border should be getting more attention than it seems to be. It should be, but I don't think much will come of this. Iran felt the need to flex, Pakistan can't just take it, so it has to retaliate. But that's kinda it. There's no large disagreement between the two countries to drive the conflict forward. They both have troubles with Balochistan, and much bigger troubles with other countries to keep them busy. I didn't know they were conducting exercises together but this shows the countries are not fundamentally at odds with each other. I think this is Iran saying "if you want stability in this part of the world we need a seat at the table". I'd be curious about reactions from China about this, as Pakistan is pretty close with them.
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Jan 18, 2024 14:54
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https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-struck-pakistan-as-they-held-joint-military-exercise-2024-1quote:Iran's missile and drone attack on neighboring Pakistan earlier this week came as the two countries reportedly held a joint naval exercise in the Persian Gulf. It doesn't seem like this was intended to escalate further. They must have really wanted to take out someone in Jaish al-Adl (assuming the statement is the true intention). Just furthering the global spiral into "we can missile/drone strike whoever we want wherever we want" that seems so popular right now. It's a terrible precedent that USA used in the global war on terror. Obviously assassinations have been going on forever, but now everyone has pretty sophisticated guided missiles and drones. Countries everywhere are going to have to invest a lot more into early detection and drone/missile defense.
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Jan 18, 2024 15:07
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golden bubble posted:Also the IRGC murdered a rich kurd for reasons I don't understand. Wonder if they are also going to retaliate soon?
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Jan 18, 2024 15:11
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Mr. Apollo posted:He was meeting with Mossad agents at their base in Iraq when the IRGC missiles struck.
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Jan 18, 2024 15:18
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^^^ Everyone is Mossad, obviously Things are still going great in the Middle East quote:Syria faces airstrikes likely conducted by Jordan's air force, 9 killed
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Jan 18, 2024 15:21
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Irony Be My Shield posted:Is there any evidence of this or is this the Iranian version of "secret Hamas base inside that beach hut" https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-revolutionary-guards-say-they-have-attacked-espionage-centers-iraqs-erbil-2024-01-15/ quote:Multimillionaire Kurdish businessman Peshraw Dizayee and several members of his family were among the dead, killed when at least one rocket crashed into their home, Iraqi security and medical sources said.
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Jan 18, 2024 15:21
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Irony Be My Shield posted:Is there any evidence of this or is this the Iranian version of "secret Hamas base inside that beach hut" It's governments citing intelligence agencies so no, nothing at all reliable. Iran has hit Ebril multiple times in the past though for the same reason. E: and Israel and Kurdish groups have worked together since the 60s so it is entirely possible there is a connection there, but who knows. Count Roland fucked around with this message at 15:41 on Jan 18, 2024 |
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Jan 18, 2024 15:26
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Mr. Apollo posted:Reuters said that Iraqi officials said that him and members of his family were at the compound and died in the attack.
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Jan 18, 2024 15:28
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Irony Be My Shield posted:So the Mossad base was also his family home?
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Jan 18, 2024 15:30
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Charlz Guybon posted:If the Iranians strike back, this has the potential to spiral completely out of control. Thats a good read, his stuff usually is. Key summary paragraph here for the thread: quote:I want to dispense with the issue really quickly, which is the notion that what the Houthis are doing is actually a ‘blockade,’ ostensibly of Israel. The thing is, blockades are also governed by international law. A blockade is generally an act of war (though war is not always declared) directed at a specific country; international law requires the blockading power to stop ships for inspection and turn around ships that contain contraband goods.
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Jan 18, 2024 19:10
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Blut posted:Thats a good read, his stuff usually is. Key summary paragraph here for the thread: The Houthi spirit was forged in the crucible of facing down the most western military on the entire planet: Saudi Arabia! Their heart knows no lies and their banner has never known defeat!
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Jan 18, 2024 19:40
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a pipe smoking dog posted:Iran was in the middle of conducting a joint military exercise with Pakistan when they launched their strike. I feel like Iran getting into an escalating conflict with a nuclear armed power on its border should be getting more attention than it seems to be. The left doesn't care if it isn't the US doing the killing and the right doesn't care if the dead are brown.
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Jan 19, 2024 11:07
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Neurolimal posted:Israel is losing a wild amount of money off the war, as well as hemmorhaging dual-citizens. It's not likely to do the job by itself, but anything that additionally shutters Israeli business, cuts Israeli jobs, and compels more return voyages will help if your goal is to nonviolently compel Israel to stop (which, so long as America is openly supporting mass slaughter, is the only real way to stop the bombing). While it's less violent than Israel's accelerated genocide campaign, attacking ships with missiles and kidnapping its crew is absolutely violent. Kalit fucked around with this message at 15:01 on Jan 19, 2024 |
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Jan 19, 2024 14:55
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Kalit posted:While it's less violent than Israel's accelerated genocide campaign, attacking ships with missiles and kidnapping its crew is absolutely violent. Sure, and the houthis have killed literally zero people during the blockade so they're at like 0.1/10 on the violence scale compared to israel. It's not merely "less violent", it is so much less violent that it might as well be described as nonviolent in comparison to what israel is doing
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Jan 19, 2024 15:10
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OctaMurk posted:Sure, and the houthis have killed literally zero people during the blockade so they're at like 0.1/10 on the violence scale compared to israel. It's not merely "less violent", it is so much less violent that it might as well be described as nonviolent in comparison to what israel is doing As I clearly stated, nonviolent is not the same as less violent. Even much less violent  Side question for the thread in general, is there any news about any of the crew members from the captured ships? I can only find references about (at least some of them) being held hostage in initial news articles. But no news since about updates, terms of release, etc. Kalit fucked around with this message at 15:37 on Jan 19, 2024 |
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Jan 19, 2024 15:15
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OctaMurk posted:Sure, and the houthis have killed literally zero people during the blockade so they're at like 0.1/10 on the violence scale compared to israel. It's not merely "less violent", it is so much less violent that it might as well be described as nonviolent in comparison to what israel is doing Only because their tech sucks. These aren't special "less lethal" anti ship missiles they're firing. They're just lovely podunk trash missiles that they insist on impotently firing at passing defenseless ships.
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Jan 19, 2024 15:38
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So are the Houthi's attacks "impotent" or such a major harm they justify a sustained bombing campaign? You can't have it both ways, there has to be some sense of proportionality to any violent response.
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Jan 19, 2024 15:42
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I wouldn’t call someone who forces trade rerouting and successfully captured and imprisons ship crews “impotent.” They’ve historically been a successful and capable military force, though more so on land than at sea.
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Jan 19, 2024 15:44
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AFancyQuestionMark posted:So are the Houthi's attacks "impotent" or such a major harm they justify a sustained bombing campaign? You can't have it both ways, there has to be some sense of proportionality to any violent response. Has this ever stopped the USA from missiling people before? No. mlmp08 posted:I wouldn’t call someone who forces trade rerouting and successfully captured and imprisons ship crews “impotent.” Defending a mountain area against risk averse attackers, yeah sure. ummel fucked around with this message at 15:48 on Jan 19, 2024 |
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Jan 19, 2024 15:46
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Kalit posted:While it's less violent than Israel's accelerated genocide campaign, attacking ships with missiles and kidnapping its crew is absolutely violent.   *(also cities, if they have missile defense systems) AFancyQuestionMark posted:So are the Houthi's attacks "impotent" or such a major harm they justify a sustained bombing campaign? You can't have it both ways, there has to be some sense of proportionality to any violent response. They're "impotent" because the USN is doing its job and intercepting the attacks and their accuracy sucks. Attempted murder is still a crime. So far nobody is carpet bombing Tehran so it's relatively proportional as far as these things go.
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Jan 19, 2024 17:47
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Owling Howl posted:The left doesn't care if it isn't the US doing the killing and the right doesn't care if the dead are brown. As an American Leftist I'm outraged by Iran's behavior and calling my representatives in congress to demand they knock off the unconditional support for Iran and vote against any future weapon shipments.
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Jan 19, 2024 17:57
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