|
reignonyourparade posted:If you want to have the argument "are the Houthi's standards for Israeli Ties unacceptably broad," that is a reasonable argument for us to have in this thread. But that is a different argument than "The Houthis are just indiscriminately hitting everyone and thus anyone who takes takes them at their word are being taken for rubes." Which, you know, is what prompted this line of discussion. It’s both. Rust Martialis posted a detailed list above of the Dec strikes. Maybe what, a quarter have clear Israel ties, half have extremely tenuous ties like the ones I mention above, and another quarter are completely unrelated whatsoever. If three quarters of their strikes have no ties to Israel, then I would say they’re pretty indiscriminate. Like one of them was "the shipping company that charters this boat has a branch office in Israel". If any company that builds, owns, charters, or insures a boat having a branch office in Israel, or having at one point in the past 10 years have had any Israeli person as a part owner, charterer, or insurer, or the boat having ever been to Israel counts, then it seems more likely to me that the Houthis are spraying and praying, and then someone online is doing their homework after the fact to try to rationalize it. YMMV. I also don’t think you should destroy a 10 floor 50 apartment housing block either just because one guy perpetrating Oct 7 used to live there.
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2024 09:19
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 26, 2024 20:41 |
|
|
I especially appreciate the "not responding to radio calls (from the group infamous for regional piracy, who like ordering ships to their port to be taken, under threat of attack)" as a justification for firing missiles. Almost as much as I like getting to re-entertain increasingly nonsensical variants of this argument every couple pages in three different threads.
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2024 09:26
|
|
|
Saladman posted:If three quarters of their strikes have no ties to Israel, He omitted the strikes on boats with immediate Israel/US ties (not maliciously, he said he did in the post). quote:then it seems more likely to me that the Houthis are spraying and praying, and then someone online is doing their homework after the fact to try to rationalize it. YMMV. As Paladinus suggested, an easy way to prove this would be to find boats with similar ties to Israel or Israeli figures, which passed by without incident. We seem to be in a loop; "There are ties, albeit broad, to Israel that you can immediately find online within less than a minute of research" -> "So its okay to target boats that aren't Israeli owned anymore?" -> "The point is that the Houthi are targeting boats related to Israel, not a judgement on how justifiable each strike is" -> "I believe the loose ties aren't good enough" -> Repeat. I'm not sure how we'd go about agreeing to disagree, either, as it's a cornerstone of whether or not you can justify Yemen's blockade against genocidal support. Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 09:32 on Feb 1, 2024 |
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2024 09:28
|
|
|
Neurolimal posted:He omitted the strikes on boats with immediate Israel/US ties (not maliciously, he said he did in the post). I'm not actually opposed to a policy of blockade-by-missile against Israeli shipping... if it helps stop the Gaza genocide, it's not the worst thing in the world, frankly. But my emotional approval of the blockade doesn't stop me from looking at the actual attacks and going "these are not restricted attacks". There were only like, an additional three or so attacks where the ship was owned by Ilan Ofer or something. So the dozen or so I cite are still 80% of the list - it doesn't change the stats much, really. If someone wants to correct my math, please do?
|
|
#
?
Feb 1, 2024 09:36
|
|
|
if we take "indiscriminate" to mean "there is no significant correlation between a ship having an apparent link to [list of declared enemies]", which seems to be the claim, then this is a proposition which can be formalised and tested. it requires everyone to agree on criteria for what those links are, then counting the number of struck ships and doing some kind of statistical test to some agreed-upon alpha. if there's marginal significance which depends on disputed cases then it's worth litigating those specific cases; if not, then that's just tedious. one also has to make some kind of rough estimate of how large a proportion of ships have such ties to formulate a baseline - possibly sampling 10-20 random ships passing through the canal could be done? the discussion as it looks now seems completely sterile. there's no point to doing "the maths" without being clear on what precisely is being argued. from my extremely limited sample looking from norway there have been many ships passing through the straits, with two attacks. one of those was actually bound for israel, and the other had an erroneous logging suggesting tie to the country, but this is not at all rigorous V. Illych L. fucked around with this message at 17:01 on Feb 3, 2024 |
|
#
?
Feb 3, 2024 16:51
|
|
|
Is this the thread to discuss the 85 air strikes that the US launched yesterday in Iraq and Syria? Kind of surprised it's not being discussed more in some of the big threads here unless I'm missing a more appropriate thread.
|
|
#
?
Feb 3, 2024 18:59
|
|
|
cr0y posted:Is this the thread to discuss the 85 air strikes that the US launched yesterday in Iraq and Syria? Kind of surprised it's not being discussed more in some of the big threads here unless I'm missing a more appropriate thread. It sure is! Here's map to get us started 
|
|
#
?
Feb 3, 2024 19:03
|
|
|
TheDeadlyShoe posted:I mean if you take your #s at their face, lets say, 25 out of 30 were totally legitimate targets, despite being civilian cargo ships crewed by innocents. I do not see the logical difference between that and someone saying 'look only 1 out of 5 terrorist gatherings bombed were weddings'. The fact no one died is a pretty big difference.
|
|
#
?
Feb 4, 2024 18:43
|
|
|
WhiskeyWhiskers posted:The fact no one died is a pretty big difference. Yes but my treats, surely my 25 lb Haribo gummy bear is morally worth a few foreign children right? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Feb 4, 2024 18:49
|
|
|
It's true that it's not that big a deal for Western countries such as Israel who can simply wait a bit longer for goods to come round the Cape or order from Europe instead. It's devastating for countries like Sudan whose only ports are in the Red Sea though.
|
|
#
?
Feb 5, 2024 00:26
|
|
|
Irony Be My Shield posted:It's true that it's not that big a deal for Western countries such as Israel who can simply wait a bit longer for goods to come round the Cape or order from Europe instead. It's devastating for countries like Sudan whose only ports are in the Red Sea though. Ships that are only going to western countries are facing insurance issues, no one else
|
|
#
?
Feb 5, 2024 01:54
|
|
|
HouseofSuren posted:Ships that are only going to western countries are facing insurance issues, no one else Ah is that why total transits are down 90% YoY, despite these nations not comprising nearly 90% of traffic? Is that why English language African media has articles like this one? https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/east-africa-braces-for-further-rise-in-food-fuel-prices-over-red-sea-crisis-4512884 If you want to make the argument that on the balance the Houthi actions are worth it, I'll listen but this isn't just affecting Westerners toys and treats.
|
|
#
?
Feb 5, 2024 02:10
|
|
|
You mean the place literally in the warzone with the ships and missiles? This is right across the transit and more to do with the fighting and less with the targeting of ships, which you are implying. Might as well imply this is caused by the infective policing actions of a power losing all its influence. HouseofSuren fucked around with this message at 02:21 on Feb 5, 2024 |
|
#
?
Feb 5, 2024 02:19
|
|
|
So you’re suggesting that shipping insurance would be fine if the great Satan went home? There’s no spike because of houthi attacks?
|
|
#
?
Feb 5, 2024 02:24
|
|
|
Do you think things are better for Americans with this kind of American governance of the world? Since you're now extrapolating
|
|
#
?
Feb 5, 2024 02:26
|
|
|
I doubt AnsarAllah is shedding too many tears over Sudan struggling economically given how vital Sudanese fighters were to the Saudi war on Yemen.
|
|
#
?
Feb 5, 2024 02:37
|
|
|
Kagrenak posted:Ah is that why total transits are down 90% YoY, despite these nations not comprising nearly 90% of traffic? Is that why English language African media has articles like this one? Wait. So are people here being purposely disingenuous about this discussion if the countries have actively sent fighters to said country and wondering why this conflict is affecting them.
|
|
#
?
Feb 5, 2024 03:02
|
|
|
HouseofSuren posted:Wait. Do you have any evidence that Ethiopia sent fighters to Yemen? Because I sure can't find any. Even if we took it as a given that they did, does that legitimize a food crisis being imposed against their population?
|
|
#
?
Feb 5, 2024 03:31
|
|
|
That article you posted stated East Africa. You're not even aligning with what you post, you're trying to shift the narrative. With you picking and choosing what we're talking about which is gish gallop, your article states: East African countries are staring at a fresh rise in food and fuel prices due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East, which continues to disrupt the flow of goods through the Red Sea. The on-going war between Israel and the Hamas-led Palestinian militant groups in Gaza have intensified insecurity in the Red sea, a seawater inlet of the Indian Ocean lying between Africa and Asia. You are clearly arguing for a specific perspective, not even regular real politik, very disingenuous. Sudan certainly has and is East Africa. Your very disingenuous argument is that a country in the middle of a conflict zone, shouldn't be affected by its immediate surroundings, when countries directly bordering it sharing the waterway, have themselves on the African side of the coast sent soldiers to help the UAE and Saudi Arabia against Yemen. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) HouseofSuren fucked around with this message at 03:41 on Feb 5, 2024 |
|
#
?
Feb 5, 2024 03:34
|
|
|
HouseofSuren posted:Wait. Please note, poster who literally registered yesterday-- the Bashir regime, the one that sent soldiers to fight alongside the Saudis was overthrown in 2020, partially because of poo poo like that. I guess you can argue that revenge is still on the menu, but then if that's the case, why would anyone believe the Houthis that they'll stop once Israel does? HouseofSuren posted:That article you posted stated East Africa. Ethiopia, and the horn in general, is the heart of East Africa. East Africa is a region, not a country. The list given in wikipedia is little more extensive than I would make it. I've never really considered Madagascar and Mozambique to be part of East Africa. I don't know how it is in the rest of the world, but the broader problem of a generalized piracy to inflict trade interdiction like this one isn't that shipments of sex arses to first worlders are running a week or two behind, but people in poorer countries are going to see increases in food/fuel/medicine prices and it is a very real problem for them since they have difficulty affording it already.
|
|
#
?
Feb 5, 2024 11:37
|
|
|
Crossposting since the brunt of the Houthi debate has been in this thread.Marenghi posted:Interesting article on the Houthi maritime sanctioning. Supports the argument that the Houthis are sifting through online information for targeting, and that they are doing so to target Israeli/US/British ships.
|
|
#
?
Feb 6, 2024 13:34
|
|
|
Let's see how capitalism is handling things. https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/12/18/down-91-is-zim-stock-a-buy-for-2024/ https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/01/29/why-zim-integrated-shipping-stock-is-cruising-high/ https://www.tradewindsnews.com/containers/houthis-turning-israeli-liner-giant-zim-into-cash-machine-/2-1-1590148 https://twitter.com/StatisticUrban/status/1754484766546579811 Israeli liner giant Zim Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. stocks were down 91% in 2023, with the balance sheets steadily bleeding cash. But thanks to the Houthi crisis, shipping spot rates have massively increased, turning Zim from a unprofitable problem company into a cash making machine in just two months. Sure, consumers will have to pay more because international shipping is more expensive, especially if it's Chinese stuff going to Europe. But the biggest cargo carrier in Israel is raking in the shekels by the boatload.
|
|
#
?
Feb 6, 2024 21:25
|
|
|
Neurolimal posted:Crossposting since the brunt of the Houthi debate has been in this thread. This is one of those articles where its a little eyebrow raising because like, duh? did someone think the Houthis were deciding when to fire missiles by peering at goat entrails? of course they have google and the ability to learn. And that expert's got some "I'm not saying we won't get our hair mussed" energy. Lately it seems the only difference between 'indiscriminate' and 'collateral damage' is whether you support the attacks or not. Hadn't realized the Houthis explicitly promised not to target russian or chinese ships though, lmao.
|
|
#
?
Feb 6, 2024 21:51
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/mrbarnicoat/status/1754931225351880953 This has been confirmed by the UK MOD https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1754865099121012990 Is lasting three attacks before being taken out of service a good thing or a bad thing? (e: Genuine question. I know very little about naval warfare) This is the class of frigate that has gym where land attack missiles should be due to lack of funds. fuctifino fucked around with this message at 09:54 on Feb 7, 2024 |
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 09:01
|
|
|
fuctifino posted:https://twitter.com/mrbarnicoat/status/1754931225351880953 Launching those three attacks probably cost the Houthis vastly less resources (both in absolute and relative terms) than bringing one of their six Type 45 destroyers into the Red Sea did for the UK, so this can probably be taken as a sign that they're winning the economic war if they can keep up the pace and force the next one (an older and slightly smaller Type 23 frigate) to retreat as well. Darth Walrus fucked around with this message at 09:32 on Feb 7, 2024 |
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 09:29
|
|
|
Darth Walrus posted:Launching those three attacks probably cost the Houthis vastly less resources (both in absolute and relative terms) than bringing one of their six Type 45 destroyers into the Red Sea did for the UK, so this can probably be taken as a sign that they're winning the economic war if they can keep up the pace and force the next one (an older and slightly smaller Type 23 frigate) to retreat as well. The Houthis aren't in an economic war with the UK, and the UK is basically unaffected by the semi-blockade of the Red Sea. The Houthi economic war is against Egypt, Sudan, Jordan, Eritrea, and to a lesser extent Saudi Arabia, and to a far lesser extent Israel (Eilat is not a significant port; something like 2-5% of Israel's trade went through there pre-2023) and anyone else who uses the canal. And... the Red Sea action is not a massive additional expenditure. Those funding allocations are always vast over estimates, since if the navy ship was not in Djibouti, it would be in Plymouth and it would still have to cover all the sailors salaries and etc. There will be a marginal cost to maintenance, fuel, and the cost of real munitions vs. training exercises, but it's not exactly bankrupting the UK. I'm sure it does cost the UK much more in €€ values, even in the marginal cost, compared to Yemen. But, Yemen is also an absurdly poor country spending a vast portion of what little it has on munitions to target ships and exacerbating a conflict that isn't really even related to them.
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 10:55
|
|
|
Saladman posted:The Houthis aren't in an economic war with the UK, and the UK is basically unaffected by the semi-blockade of the Red Sea. The Houthi economic war is against Egypt, Sudan, Jordan, Eritrea, and to a lesser extent Saudi Arabia, and to a far lesser extent Israel (Eilat is not a significant port; something like 2-5% of Israel's trade went through there pre-2023) and anyone else who uses the canal. The ongoing genocide of the Palestinian people by the State of Israel is a sin on all of our souls, my dude. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 15:29
|
|
|
Saladman posted:The Houthis aren't in an economic war with the UK, and the UK is basically unaffected by the semi-blockade of the Red Sea. The Houthi economic war is against Egypt, Sudan, Jordan, Eritrea, and to a lesser extent Saudi Arabia, and to a far lesser extent Israel (Eilat is not a significant port; something like 2-5% of Israel's trade went through there pre-2023) and anyone else who uses them. This back of a napkin goon math done to show the blockade doesn't actually harm Israel is based on the completely ridiculous assumption that the main harm we would expect to see is a reduction in tonnes of goods delivered. There are more costly routes to the other ports! The economic impact is in higher costs, not reduced access to goods.
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 17:24
|
|
|
fuctifino posted:Is lasting three attacks before being taken out of service a good thing or a bad thing? Completely depends. Sometimes things break on a ship. Maybe it was already coming up on scheduled maintenance before combat even started. Maybe something broke, but it was the kind of "things break" repair that is pretty normal for any ship. Maybe the second they hit the "combat mode" button, a bunch of choccy biccys popped out of the walls and the teatime machine blew up, but we don't know?
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 21:14
|
|
|
TheDeadlyShoe posted:Lately it seems the only difference between 'indiscriminate' and 'collateral damage' is whether you support the attacks or not. it can be if people insist on not clarifying their terms and using words to mean different things than they, in fact, mean
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 21:15
|
|
|
Seem like great guys https://twitter.com/JustLuai/status/1755320230430052423 Also yeah the blockade hurts china the most since the US doesnt need to red sea to get to Europe
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 21:50
|
|
|
Despera posted:Seem like great guys Don't worry, i'm sure the people trying to take down the faction who used to be the PDRY actually intend to defeat capitalism once and for all. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 21:51
|
|
|
Your source appears to be some deranged Zionist freak with a really cool pinned tweet, any better sources?
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 22:33
|
|
|
TheDoublePivot posted:Your source appears to be some deranged Zionist freak with a really cool pinned tweet, any better sources? Looks like the primary source in English is this article citing AFP https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1367225/13-sentenced-to-death-for-homosexuality-in-yemen-source.html
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 22:43
|
|
|
Thanks for the link.
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 23:45
|
|
|
TheDoublePivot posted:Your source appears to be some deranged Zionist freak with a really cool pinned tweet, any better sources? "Islamic extremists killing homosexuals? Sir I'm going to need some sources
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 23:47
|
|
|
I'm not defending the Houthis in any way, but I went digging for sources after reading this snippet in the linked article:quote:A 2022 report by the Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor said the Houthis have sentenced 350 people to death since seizing the capital in 2014, and have executed 11 of them. Of those 11, I found this https://apnews.com/article/europe-middle-east-united-kingdom-united-nations-yemen-83a89966643d771527672dc74d96bbb7 quote:The United Nations, the United States and the United Kingdom on Sunday condemned the executions of nine Yemenis by the country’s Houthi rebels over allegations that they were involved in the killing of a senior Houthi official in an airstrike by the Saudi-led coalition more than three years ago. I'm not denying the Houthis have a terrible human rights record, but I felt it was needed to quote sources when there are posts like this: Despera posted:"Islamic extremists killing homosexuals? Sir I'm going to need some sources
|
|
#
?
Feb 7, 2024 23:55
|
|
|
Despera posted:"Islamic extremists killing homosexuals? Sir I'm going to need some sources Panzeh posted:Don't worry, i'm sure the people trying to take down the faction who used to be the PDRY actually intend to defeat capitalism once and for all. I feel like, considering the thread has historically backed both Libyan warlords and ISIS in Syria, that this sense of moral superiority and smugness is wholly unearned. There's nothing wrong with wanting better sources than some guy on twitter cheering on genocide. Especially in this thread. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Feb 8, 2024 01:14
|
|
|
fuctifino posted:I'm not defending the Houthis in any way, but I went digging for sources after reading this snippet in the linked article: I don't know why that article says it that way, but the source they cite says that the 350 sentences, 11 executions carried out specifically refers to "politicians, opposition activists, journalists, and military personnel". https://euromedmonitor.org/en/article/5480/Death-penalty-for-16-Yemenis-reflects-high-cost-of-Houthi-impunity Like most right wing organizations, most killings are done extrajudicially anyway- https://reliefweb.int/report/yemen/hanish-prison-houthi-dungeon
|
|
#
?
Feb 8, 2024 01:33
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 26, 2024 20:41 |
|
|
Neurolimal posted:I feel like, considering the thread has historically backed both Libyan warlords and ISIS in Syria, that this sense of moral superiority and smugness is wholly unearned. He called my source a "zionist freak" ok fine. The problem arises when he asks me to find another source that better suits his preference as if it wasn't the year of our lord twenty twenty four and as if search engines didn't exist. Also something tells me the Houthi don't hand out death sentences like candy and those who get them do have their lifespans dramatically reduced.
|
|
#
?
Feb 8, 2024 02:35
|
|