[Biosphere Collapse] 420 days of blazin' it

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Biosphere Collapse] 420 days of blazin' it

«‹›1936 »

(Thread IKs: Stereotype)

NoNotTheMindProbe: Aug 9, 2010; pony porn was here

I would blow Dane Cook posted:

I forgot to post the graph for a while and it went up up up

does this mean that Florida will be destroyed by a hypercane?

# ? Feb 5, 2024 12:58

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 26, 2024 06:47

I would blow Dane Cook: Dec 26, 2008

NoNotTheMindProbe posted:

does this mean that Florida will be destroyed by a hypercane?

I hope so.

# ? Feb 5, 2024 13:07

Stevie Lee: Oct 8, 2007

I would blow Dane Cook posted:

I forgot to post the graph for a while and it went up up up

is that an all-time record in loving february???

lmao

# ? Feb 5, 2024 15:10

Taima: Dec 31, 2006; tfw you're peeing next to someone in the lineup and they don't know

Climate warming combined with a pretty strong El Nino to juice that number, if you're trying to get your doomsday rocks off I am sorry to say that this graph will lower by a fair bit this year.

Like it's still loving insane but yeah

# ? Feb 5, 2024 15:14

Fried Watermelon: Dec 29, 2008

Taima posted:

Climate warming combined with a pretty strong El Nino to juice that number, if you're trying to get your doomsday rocks off I am sorry to say that this graph will lower by a fair bit this year.

Like it's still loving insane but yeah

Yeah I bet it's similar numbers to the last El Nino lol

# ? Feb 5, 2024 15:16

mags: May 30, 2008; I am a congenital optimist.

I would blow Dane Cook posted:

which one of you is this?

https://twitter.com/FalconryFinance/status/1754458795080884574

no one of any consequence on a dying nazi website who was permabanned from this one

# ? Feb 5, 2024 15:19

Dokapon Findom: Dec 5, 2022; They hated Futanari because His posts were shit.

Xaris posted:

lol "green energy" was never a panacea to begin with but throw in the liberal landed gentry nimbys and you got a stew baby

I support green energy but they should build all this poo poo near someone else's house and not mine. :thanks:

# ? Feb 5, 2024 15:25

Struensee: Nov 9, 2011

Stevie Lee posted:

is that an all-time record in loving february???

lmao

The month doesn't matter in this case.

# ? Feb 5, 2024 15:31

Erghh: Sep 24, 2007; "Let him speak!"

chile is burning down

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/04/authorities-struggle-to-contain-forest-fires-in-chile

quote:

Firefighters are wrestling with huge forest fires that broke out in central Chile on Friday. Officials have extended curfews in cities most heavily affected by the blazes and said the death toll has increased to 112 killed.

The fires have been burning with the highest intensity around the city of Vi�a del Mar, where a botanical garden founded in 1931 was destroyed by the flames. At least 1,600 people have been left without homes.

Flames and smoke on the eastern edge of the city have trapped some people in their homes. Officials said 200 people have been reported missing in Vi�a del Mar and the surrounding area. The city of 300,000 people is a popular beach resort.

....................

Rodrigo Mundaca, the governor of the Valpara�so region, said on Sunday he believed that some of the fires could have been intentionally caused, replicating a theory that had also been mentioned on Saturday by the president, Gabriel Boric.

�These fires began in four points that lit up simultaneously,� Mundaca said. �As authorities, we will have to work rigorously to find who is responsible.�

The fires around Vi�a del Mar began in mountainous forested areas that are hard to reach. But they have moved into densely populated neighbourhoods on the city�s periphery despite efforts by Chilean authorities to slow down the flames.

On Saturday, Boric said unusually high temperatures, low humidity and high wind speeds were making it difficult to control the wildfires in central Chile, which have already burned through 8,000 hectares of forest and urban areas.

# ? Feb 5, 2024 15:49

Struensee: Nov 9, 2011

I bet it's those pesky environmentalists lighting those fires!

# ? Feb 5, 2024 16:53

Ruggan: Feb 20, 2007; WHAT THAT SMELL LIKE?!

BCR posted:

It was always birbs.

looks like a politician to me

# ? Feb 5, 2024 17:02

Paradoxish: Dec 19, 2003; Will you stop going crazy in there?

Taima posted:

Climate warming combined with a pretty strong El Nino to juice that number, if you're trying to get your doomsday rocks off I am sorry to say that this graph will lower by a fair bit this year.

Like it's still loving insane but yeah

I mean it's higher than any other year on that chart following a year where it was consistently higher than any other year on that chart. That's... pretty doomy.

# ? Feb 5, 2024 17:30

mags: May 30, 2008; I am a congenital optimist.

Paradoxish posted:

I mean it's higher than any other year on that chart following a year where it was consistently higher than any other year on that chart. That's... pretty doomy.

the level of bad that this is hasn't really reached the red line yet

# ? Feb 5, 2024 17:47

Hit Man: Mar 6, 2008; I hope after I die people will say of me: "That guy sure owed me a lot of money."

Listen it's just El Niño. There's nothing to worry about. Everything is fine

# ? Feb 5, 2024 18:02

mags: May 30, 2008; I am a congenital optimist.

Hit Man posted:

Listen it's just El Niño. There's nothing to worry about. Everything is fine

happens all the time

# ? Feb 5, 2024 18:05

sebzilla: Mar 17, 2009; Kid's blasting everything in sight with that new-fangled musket.

Struensee posted:

The month doesn't matter in this case.

Nothing matters, really

# ? Feb 5, 2024 18:06

Argentum: Feb 6, 2011; UGLY LIKE BOWEL CANCER

mags posted:

the level of bad that this is hasn't really reached the red line yet

the real poo poo begins when we have our first blue ocean event imo

# ? Feb 5, 2024 18:16

Dokapon Findom: Dec 5, 2022; They hated Futanari because His posts were shit.

The ocean is already blue :nallears:

Nobody will care

# ? Feb 5, 2024 18:22

mags: May 30, 2008; I am a congenital optimist.

Dokapon Findom posted:

The ocean is already blue Nobody will care

libs cancelling colors now smdh

# ? Feb 5, 2024 18:40

Struensee: Nov 9, 2011

Argentum posted:

the real poo poo begins when we have our first blue ocean event imo

My feeling is that we're gonna be suffering from multiple breadbasket failures year on year before it happens. That thin ice keeps coming back in the winter, and doesn't fully melt.

# ? Feb 5, 2024 19:13

TehSaurus: Jun 12, 2006

mags posted:

the level of bad that this is hasn't really reached the red line yet

which red line? oh, this one? No, I�m not moving it, who would do something like that. I believe in science!

# ? Feb 5, 2024 19:14

Thorn Wishes Talon: Oct 18, 2014; by Fluffdaddy

so is it a stronger than average el nino or a very mild el nino?

# ? Feb 5, 2024 20:02

The Oldest Man: Jul 28, 2003

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01919-7

Lol. Lmao.

# ? Feb 5, 2024 20:07

Thorn Wishes Talon: Oct 18, 2014; by Fluffdaddy

The Oldest Man posted:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01919-7

Lol. Lmao.

quote:

Hotter land temperatures, together with the earlier onset of industrial-era warming, indicate that global warming was already 1.7 � 0.1 �C above pre-industrial levels by 2020. Our result is 0.5 �C higher than IPCC estimates, with 2 �C global warming projected by the late 2020s, nearly two decades earlier than expected.

lol

# ? Feb 5, 2024 20:09

Rectal Death Alert: Apr 2, 2021

The Oldest Man posted:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01919-7

Lol. Lmao.

quote:

Hotter land temperatures, together with the earlier onset of industrial-era warming, indicate that global warming was already 1.7 � 0.1 �C above pre-industrial levels by 2020. Our result is 0.5 �C higher than IPCC estimates, with 2 �C global warming projected by the late 2020s, nearly two decades earlier than expected.

They said the line

# ? Feb 5, 2024 20:09

SixteenShells: Sep 30, 2021

Just reading the abstract, but it sounds like the insight is that the baseline was actually 0.2C ~~lower~~higher than it should have been? Does it change anything about projections for a 1.5C increase if it's "actually" a 1.7C increase? I guess I should skim the full article.

edit: wrong direction

SixteenShells has issued a correction as of 20:14 on Feb 5, 2024

# ? Feb 5, 2024 20:10

Ssthalar: Sep 16, 2007

SixteenShells posted:

Just reading the abstract, but it sounds like the insight is that the baseline was actually 0.2C lower than it should have been? Does it change anything about projections for a 1.5C increase if it's "actually" a 1.7C increase? I guess I should skim the full article.

It means that things aren't that bad, yet.

# ? Feb 5, 2024 20:12

Argentum: Feb 6, 2011; UGLY LIKE BOWEL CANCER

+1.5�C ~~sooner than expected~~already happened in 2020.

If temperatures don't go down after 2024, does that mean we're already at +2.0�C?

# ? Feb 5, 2024 20:12

Hubbert: Mar 25, 2007; At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

SixteenShells posted:

I guess I should skim the full article.

Read articles?!

Excuse me, but I only learn about DOOM from clickbait headlines, vibes-based evidence, and unwanted graphs people keep sending me!

# ? Feb 5, 2024 20:15

The Oldest Man: Jul 28, 2003

SixteenShells posted:

Just reading the abstract, but it sounds like the insight is that the baseline was actually 0.2C ~~lower~~higher than it should have been? Does it change anything about projections for a 1.5C increase if it's "actually" a 1.7C increase? I guess I should skim the full article.

edit: wrong direction

No, read the article.

# ? Feb 5, 2024 20:20

Skaffen-Amtiskaw: Jun 24, 2023

The Oldest Man posted:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01919-7

Lol. Lmao.

This is very funny.

Oh, it's real too?

Incredible.

# ? Feb 5, 2024 20:23

Car Hater: May 7, 2007; wolf. bike.
Wolf. Bike.
Wolf! Bike!
WolfBike!
WolfBike!
ARROOOOOO!

So all we need to do is have a Krakatoa-scale eruption every year forever and things will be fine, that seems doable

# ? Feb 5, 2024 20:33

Dokapon Findom: Dec 5, 2022; They hated Futanari because His posts were shit.

Shows how useless historical data is when what's happening is unprecedented...

# ? Feb 5, 2024 20:35

Fried Watermelon: Dec 29, 2008

Obama knew

# ? Feb 5, 2024 20:37

The Oldest Man: Jul 28, 2003

I guess I'll just say it in plain language: this study doesn't change anything about the pre industrial baseline temperature. We didn't just oopsy that. What they found is a near-term historical ocean temperature record that they believe is better than other historical records that have been available to date for a few reasons**. What that record contains is evidence of a bunch of hidden warming - starting both earlier and proceeding further than other records indicate. Estimating the actual mean global temperature is really, really hard. They're saying they found a better thermometer for a major component of the global temperature that has thus far been under or unmeasured, and what that thermometer says is that we started warming earlier and have warmed more than we otherwise would have believed.

*(1 - getting the data from long lived sponges using modern technology means you're actually getting a current snapshot of a historical record encoded in a physical representation, like a tree ring, meaning it's first-hand data vs reading what someone wrote in a notebook 200 years ago which is second-hand, 2 - because the depth where these sponges lived in a shallow but well-mixed layer means the data - according to them - are less noisy than sea surface temperature readings and less subject to error, 3 - because the specific geographic location where they got the samples has a primary temperature influence from global forcing which according to them means this is an ideal sample that is primarily influenced by mean global temperatures rather than other factors)

in their words

quote:

Although the relative importance of the regional and global processes driving the increased frequency and intensity of land-based heatwaves is still uncertain39, our revised record of industrial-era warming now clearly shows that terrestrial environments have been subject to a much faster rate of warming since the 1990s, compared to those in the more stable OML of the upper surface oceans.

These findings also have important implications for near-term projections of global warming. As already described, relative to the 1961�1990 reference, OML and land temperatures (Fig. 5a) and hence GMSTs (Fig. 5b) increased by ∼0.9 � 0.1 �C since the 1700�1860 pre-industrial period. This compares with only ∼0.4 �C when HadSST4 and land temperatures are estimated relative to the IPCC 1850�1900 pre-industrial period10, a difference of 0.5 �C (Fig. 5b). The additional 0.5 �C in global warming above IPCC estimates1 also implies that GMSTs were ∼1.7 � 0.1 �C above 1700�1860 pre-industrial levels by 2018�2022, compared to the IPCC estimate1 of ∼1.2 � 0.1 �C (Fig. 5b). Thus, the opportunity to limit global warming to no more than 1.5 �C by emission reductions alone has now passed and at current emission rates, the 2 �C threshold for GMSTs will be reached by the late 2020s (Fig. 5d).

We have shown that the late-twentieth-century land-air temperatures have been increasing at almost twice the rate of the surface oceans and are now ∼2 �C above pre-industrial levels. If these current rates of warming continue, mean land temperature will exceed 2.5 �C by about 2035, with GMSTs expected to follow in early 2040 (Fig. 5c,d). Consequently, the overriding aim of the UN Paris agreement to keep the combined land and ocean global surface temperature increase to below 2 �C is now a much greater challenge, emphasizing the even more urgent need to halve emissions by 2030.

# ? Feb 5, 2024 20:39

fanfic insert: Nov 4, 2009

steamin hot model

# ? Feb 5, 2024 20:43

quiggy: Aug 7, 2010; [in Russian] Oof.

Car Hater posted:

So all we need to do is have a Krakatoa-scale eruption every year forever and things will be fine, that seems doable

BROKE: nuking hurricanes
WOKE: nuking volcanoes

# ? Feb 5, 2024 20:43

JAY ZERO SUM GAME: Oct 18, 2005; Walter.
I know you know how to do this.
Get up.

the "yet" in "not that bad yet" grows closer

# ? Feb 5, 2024 20:45

SixteenShells: Sep 30, 2021

quote:

Importantly, however, the long-term similarity in rates of land and upper ocean surface warming starts to breakdown in the late twentieth century, with land-air temperatures now increasing at nearly twice the rate of the surface oceans regardless of the ENSO phase (Fig. 5a,c). Rather than the land-air record being part of an ongoing post-1900s warming trend relative to the IPCC 1850�1900 pre-industrial period, as currently assumed16 (Fig. 1b), our findings show a distinct divergence from the surface ocean from around 1980�1990 (Fig. 5a,c). This is consistent with the already well-documented amplified warming of the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere land masses and the decline of Artic permafrost38,39. This change also coincides with the increased frequency of both Southern Hemisphere and Northern Hemisphere heatwaves2 and associated extreme events, such as droughts and wildfires40. Wildfires and more frequent bushfires are also an additional source of atmospheric CO2, providing an enhanced feedback mechanism. Although the relative importance of the regional and global processes driving the increased frequency and intensity of land-based heatwaves is still uncertain39, our revised record of industrial-era warming now clearly shows that terrestrial environments have been subject to a much faster rate of warming since the 1990s, compared to those in the more stable OML of the upper surface oceans.

These findings also have important implications for near-term projections of global warming. As already described, relative to the 1961�1990 reference, OML and land temperatures (Fig. 5a) and hence GMSTs (Fig. 5b) increased by ∼0.9 � 0.1 �C since the 1700�1860 pre-industrial period. This compares with only ∼0.4 �C when HadSST4 and land temperatures are estimated relative to the IPCC 1850�1900 pre-industrial period10, a difference of 0.5 �C (Fig. 5b). The additional 0.5 �C in global warming above IPCC estimates1 also implies that GMSTs were ∼1.7 � 0.1 �C above 1700�1860 pre-industrial levels by 2018�2022, compared to the IPCC estimate1 of ∼1.2 � 0.1 �C (Fig. 5b). Thus, the opportunity to limit global warming to no more than 1.5 �C by emission reductions alone has now passed and at current emission rates, the 2 �C threshold for GMSTs will be reached by the late 2020s (Fig. 5d).

We have shown that the late-twentieth-century land-air temperatures have been increasing at almost twice the rate of the surface oceans and are now ∼2 �C above pre-industrial levels.

Ah okay. So it's not a wrong baseline but nothing else is wrong, it's more like "if you were puzzled at the effects we've been seeing at 1.5C, that's because we're actually at 1.7C"?

fake edit: thanks for the recap Oldest Man, I only noticed your post right as i was hitting the submit button

# ? Feb 5, 2024 20:47

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 26, 2024 06:47

Colonel Cancer: Sep 26, 2015; Tune into the fireplace channel, you absolute buffoon

I think if we really give it 110% and combine our efforts we can raise that piddly 1.7 C to a formidable 17C within our lifetimes!

# ? Feb 5, 2024 20:49

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Biosphere Collapse] 420 days of blazin' it

«‹›1936 »