[Doomsday Economics] Home of Kirbeh's FREE SLICE ($25 delivery fee)

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(Thread IKs: skooma512)

MLKQUOTEMACHINE: Oct 22, 2012; Some motherfuckers are always trying to ice-skate uphill

H.P. Hovercraft posted:

gen x trends even more conservative than the boomers lol

im reading end times by peter turchin rn and his "anecdote but this is backed up by data" about your average gen x'er is great:

Peter Turchin posted:

Steve
�So, you are voting for Trump in November?� I asked Steve in the summer of 2016. �But he is a billionaire. What does he know�or care�about common people? And he is such a clown.� Steve shook out a cigarette from a pack of Marlboros and lit it. �It�s not Trump I am going to vote for. The problem is the liberal elites who have been driving this great country into the ground. That woman only cares about bankers keeping their wealth. She says that �deplorables� like me are the problem. Me and �white privilege�? What a sick joke. The real white supremacy is the CEOs of Fortune 500 companies, ninety percent of whom happen to be white men. But somehow the corporate media doesn�t see that elephant in the room. No, I don�t buy what the Democrats and the liberal media tell us. At least Trump is saying out loud what we all think.�

Steve grew up in upstate New York in a lower-middle-class family. His father worked as a machinist at a factory that manufactured highway infrastructure products. This job brought in a modest but steady income that allowed Steve�s family to maintain their middle-class status. Steve�s mother didn�t work, and the family owned their own house and could afford to send Steve�s older sister to a local college. Steve himself decided that he was not interested in college. His high school grades were not that stellar. Additionally, when his sister graduated with a degree in liberal arts and sciences, her diploma had no visible effect on the kind of job she was offered or the wage she got. Two years after finishing college, she and her husband moved away to North Carolina, where the taxes and the cost of living were lower and where her husband�s employment prospects were better. Instead of college, Steve signed up for the army, which sent him to Germany. But he completed only one tour of duty. At that time, the United States was just about to embark on a series of foreign wars in places like Afghanistan and Iraq. Steve didn�t see the point of risking his life in wars in which he didn�t have much of a stake.

In a sad development, his father suddenly passed away from a heart attack at a relatively young age, and Steve wanted to support his mother during this difficult time. When he returned home, Steve found that, unlike his father�s generation, he could not count on holding a steady job. For a while he worked in construction, but he eventually trained himself as a car mechanic. Although not suited to any managerial role, he is a good worker with hish ands, and his skill at fixing cars is valued by his bosses.

Despite that, the level of his salary in real terms is much lower than what his father earned. Additionally, he has no job security. Something always happens�the repair shop goes out of business, or it has to downsize the workforce due to lack of demand, or the owner demands extra work while refusing to pay over time. The upshot is that Steve cannot hold a job for more than a year or two and periodically has to rely on unemployment benefits. Applying for benefits is a demeaning process that takes time, and Steve often goes for weeks without any income. A downside of receiving benefits is that there is a lot of pressure to accept low-wage jobs, even if they don�t fit his skills. He knows that he is a good worker, and in previous jobs he earned as much as twenty-five dollars per hour. Why should he accept a job that pays minimum wage? And after taking out taxes, he is actually going to earn less than the unemployment benefits he is currently getting. Steve wants to work�he enjoys fixing cars and is good at it. But he resents being called lazy because he is reluctant to take low-paying temporary jobs. Although he doesn�t know the word, he is part of the �precariat.�[1]It helps that his mother got a job at the local Walmart. Dealing with rude customers is unpleasant, and the job pays a low wage. On the upside, the commute is short.

Also, Steve and his mom consider themselves lucky that they own their house. Real estate taxes in their town are high�more than$5,000 a year. Still, living in your own home beats renting an apartment. Another stroke of luck is that, as a veteran, Steve gets free health insurance through the Veterans Health Administration. It also must be admitted that Steve has proven unable to save any of his income for a rainy day. Even when he does well, money somehow always disappears before the next payday. Steve wants to have a family and kids. But although he has had several girlfriends, none of his relationships grew into long-term ones. He doesn�t know what the problem is, but now that he has started his fifth decade, he feels that he may have to resign himself to a child-free life. Steve has two passions: cars and guns. The first helps to bring money in, and the second is one of the reasons why he has no savings. He has quite a collection of firearms and regularly shoots them at the firing range. His buddies are mostly veterans and, like him, gun nuts. The most sacred part of the US Constitution for them is the Second Amendment: �the right of the people to keep and bear Arms.� Through his friends, Steve learned about the Oath Keepers. As a veteran, he was welcome to join, and he has participated in several demonstrations in favor of the Second Amendment, but more recently, he has drifted away from the organization. Steve�s political views have been shaped by personal experience and his social environment. Overall, it is clear to him that his country is moving in the wrong direction.

His grandparents grew up during the Great Depression and World War II. Life was hard for a while, but then it got visibly better as the country entered the postwar era. The next generation, that of his baby boomer parents, had it even better. America was a great country in which the quality of life for the common people had been noticeably improving for each generation. But not for Steve and his friends. Somehow, the age of prosperity for the common people has ended and been replaced by an age of precarity. Itis not right that children should be worse off than their parents. What�s even worse, according to Steve, is that the �cosmopolitan elites,� who control the American state, have essentially declared war on people like him�white heterosexual males without college educations.

They are �deplorables,� as Hillary Clinton famously described them in 2016��racist,sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic.� Especially when he is between jobs, Steve feels like one of the least powerful people in America. He and his buddies believe that the elites can�t wait to get rid of them. Liberal pundits and politicians count the years before people like Steve are finally outnumbered by the �correct� voters. As he hears from right-wing commentators, the elites actively work to bring that day closer by encouraging immigration. While his father was a staunch Democrat, Steve didn�t bother to vote before 2016. No mainstream politicians appealed to him. It all changed in2016 with the stratospheric rise of Donald Trump, who unexpectedly gained the Republican nomination. Steve didn�t completely buy Trump, but at least he was expressing in words what Steve and his friends felt. He promised to drain the swamp and to build the wall. This message resonated, even though Steve was skeptical that Trump would be allowed to do any of it. But it didn�t matter. Steve welcomed Trump�s candidacy as a battering ram against the Washington elites. It was a delight to watch the elites squirm under Trump�s onslaught. Steve is not a revolutionary. He doesn�t want to break the state and reshape society. Instead, he wants things to return to what they were for his parents and grandparents. This is how he understands the Trump slogan, "Make America Great Again.�

As much as he loathes mainstream politicians, Steve despises the mainstream media even more. The only mainstream media program that he watches is Tucker Carlson Tonight on Fox News. But his main sources of information and ideas are bloggers and YouTubers who are veterans like himself. He laughs when the corporate media call his news sources �fake news��in his view, it�s channels like CNN that peddle fake news. One particular topic of fake news, according to Steve, is the current epidemic of shooting rampages. Most of them are engineered by gun control advocates with the goal of swaying public opinion against the Second Amendment. This is one thing that he feels strongly about; his line in the sand will be crossed when the state comes to take his guns away. He is willing to use arms to defend his right to bear arms. As his pal Brad likes to repeat, �If they treat us like this when we are armed, what will they do to us after they take our arms away?

Immediately after is a profile of a lib elite who does the whole "your eyes are lying to you," routine. Good book to read with a critical eye.

# ? Feb 13, 2024 01:12

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# ? May 25, 2024 19:18

thechosenone: Mar 21, 2009

So have there been any major crashes in consumer spending since the US hit the limit on the benefits of the post world war 2 era and major technological improvements? Besides 2008 that is?

Because if the solution to 2008 was to use the Treasury to prop up lenders when the markets get Shakey, than this all seems to be just a lead up to them being directly supported with infinite money forever, which would result in inflation increasing as that market would expand likely at a rate above the underlying economy, eventually coming to diverge so much any attempt to remerge them would result in massive inflation, essentially meaning an end to small time landlords.

# ? Feb 13, 2024 01:15

MLKQUOTEMACHINE: Oct 22, 2012; Some motherfuckers are always trying to ice-skate uphill

MLKQUOTEMACHINE posted:

Immediately after is a profile of a lib elite who does the whole "your eyes are lying to you," routine. Good book to read with a critical eye.

gently caress it, I gotta post it bc its Too Good

Peter Turchin posted:

Kathryn
About a year or two after Donald Trump astounded the world by getting himself elected, when our political elites were still trying to process this shocking turn of events, I had an interesting conversation with one of them. Kathryn, a one-percenter herself, lives in Washington, DC, and has extensive connections among both wealthy philanthropists and established as well as aspiring politicians. She often acts as an intermediary between the two groups. She had heard somewhere that years ago I had published a forecast predicting the coming instability in the US, and she wanted to know what this forecast was based on. More specifically, she was looking for insights into why so many people voted for Trump in 2016.

I started to give her my usual spiel about the drivers of social and political instability, but I didn�t get beyond the first one, popular immiseration. �What immiseration?� countered Kathryn. �Life has never been better than today!� She then advised me to read Enlightenment Now, a then just published book by Steven Pinker. She also suggested that I take a look at the graphs on Max Roser�s website, Our World in Data. Channeling both, she urged me to rethink my take: �Just follow the data. Life, health, prosperity, safety, peace, knowledge, and happiness are on the rise.�[2] Global poverty is declining; child mortality is declining; violence is declining. Everybody, even in the poorest African country, has a smartphone, which contains a level of technology that is miraculous compared to what previous generations had.

Kathryn is right, as far as it goes. According to Max Roser,[3] if in 1820 more than three-quarters of people in the world lived in extreme poverty, today only one-tenth suffer this condition. Decade by decade for the last two centuries, global poverty has declined, with the rate of decline particularly impressive after 1970.

But Steve doesn�t care what has happened to global poverty since 1820, or even 1970. Most of the poverty decline since 1970 was, in any case, due to the massive economic growth of China. Of what possible relevance is that to him? Why does it matter that he is wealthier than most people in sub-Saharan Africa? He compares himself not to a sorghum farmer in Chad but to his father. He knows full well that his generation is economically worse off than the generation of his father.

When Kathryn says that life has never been better, it�s based not only on what happens globally�there is also a personal angle. She and the people she talks to (predominantly other one-percenters, with a few ten-percenters mixed in) have done fabulously well in the past few decades. Her own experience is in agreement with the optimistic statistics cited by Pinker and Roser. But that�s not the personal experience of Steve and those in his social milieu. No wonder these two groups disagree about the direction in which the country is going.

In Kathryn�s view, Steve�s problems are mostly his fault. In today�s knowledge-based economy, a high school degree is not enough�to flourish he needs a college education. He also needs to practice financial discipline. Instead of spending his extra money on guns and ammo, he should be putting it into an individual retirement account.

MLKQUOTEMACHINE has issued a correction as of 01:47 on Feb 13, 2024

# ? Feb 13, 2024 01:34

Schmeichy: Apr 22, 2007; 2spooky4u; Smellrose

MLKQUOTEMACHINE posted:

gently caress it, I gotta post it bc its Too Good

Christ what an rear end in a top hat

# ? Feb 13, 2024 01:40

Dr_0ctag0n: Apr 25, 2015; The whole human race
sentenced
to
burn

"Instead of spending his extra money on guns and ammo, he should be putting it into an individual retirement account."

Lady, this is America, that is the retirement plan.

# ? Feb 13, 2024 01:41

Salt Fish: Sep 11, 2003; Cybernetic Crumb

If houses go up $50,000 a year just save 60!

# ? Feb 13, 2024 02:35

euphronius: Feb 18, 2009

Mr Hootington posted:

https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1757086817294209232?t=5lVGC2pJb_WCX--n8CiHzw&s=19

Jesus Christ

# ? Feb 13, 2024 02:36

Mr Hootington: Jul 24, 2008; I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1757071840927732151?t=LTypsG25KuWdGBFVZ7wjdQ&s=19
https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1757073245973410219?t=n70w3JH-uxu_mB2aGFqKig&s=19
https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1757076121919598706?t=vdm55aAL6r9OlGX7Y6SXFQ&s=19
https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1757132464722489730?t=x0uFaprDut0rO_7CBEcJeA&s=19

# ? Feb 13, 2024 02:47

Paradoxish: Dec 19, 2003; Will you stop going crazy in there?

JAY ZERO SUM GAME posted:

ill-informed decisions... like... spending less money i guess?

lmao that was my first reaction too

like thinking your finances are worse than they actually are will probably lead to better overall decision making so... what?

# ? Feb 13, 2024 04:03

Nonsense: Jan 26, 2007

raising wages is inflationary. It must never happen again.

# ? Feb 13, 2024 04:10

thechosenone: Mar 21, 2009

Nonsense posted:

raising wages is inflationary. It must never happen again.

Bad news to all the guys expecting rent prices to go up forever (since you can't exactly rent to people who's wages are a fraction of the needed monthly payment to make the mortgage payment).

Edit: the same for apartment blocks but for wages insufficient to pay their share of the mortgage.

thechosenone has issued a correction as of 04:21 on Feb 13, 2024

# ? Feb 13, 2024 04:15

MLKQUOTEMACHINE: Oct 22, 2012; Some motherfuckers are always trying to ice-skate uphill

thechosenone posted:

Bad news to all the guys expecting rent prices to go up forever (since you can't exactly rent to people who's wages are a fraction of the needed monthly payment to make the mortgage payment).

if liberal administrations like SFs are willing to pay commercial landlords for their empty storefronts, im sure these same useless people will find a way to pay residential landlords

# ? Feb 13, 2024 04:17

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

Nonsense posted:

https://twitter.com/c_gro/status/1751372996751560742

"So please follow my funds instead!"

https://twitter.com/sadvalueinvestr/status/1757157126500237803

# ? Feb 13, 2024 04:18

thechosenone: Mar 21, 2009

MLKQUOTEMACHINE posted:

if liberal administrations like SFs are willing to pay commercial landlords for their empty storefronts, im sure these same useless people will find a way to pay residential landlords

San Francisco... You mean the heart of the tech bubble? Given they already tried printing their way out and had to stop, and the fact the San Fran Real Estate market is less than 2% of the national (which also doesn't have the huge amount of money silicon valley companies had), I suspect a lot of interesting new problems would be caused by this.

# ? Feb 13, 2024 04:27

MLKQUOTEMACHINE: Oct 22, 2012; Some motherfuckers are always trying to ice-skate uphill

thechosenone posted:

San Francisco... You mean the heart of the tech bubble? Given they already tried printing their way out and had to stop, and the fact the San Fran Real Estate market is less than 2% of the national (which also doesn't have the huge amount of money silicon valley companies had), I suspect a lot of interesting new problems would be caused by this.

And I can't wait to see them

From afar

Because I'm moving back to Maryland

# ? Feb 13, 2024 04:51

Akratic Method: Mar 9, 2013; It's going to pay off eventually--I'm sure of it.

Any day now.

MLKQUOTEMACHINE posted:

And I can't wait to see them

From afar

Because I'm moving back to Maryland

it�s less insane than SF for sure but the housing markets here are way up too. I live in an unremarkable suburb of DC (not like Bethesda or Chevy Chase) and houses near me are still mostly a million dollars. Or you could go smaller and save money by getting a townhouse for only 950K!

# ? Feb 13, 2024 05:00

MLKQUOTEMACHINE: Oct 22, 2012; Some motherfuckers are always trying to ice-skate uphill

Akratic Method posted:

it’s less insane than SF for sure but the housing markets here are way up too. I live in an unremarkable suburb of DC (not like Bethesda or Chevy Chase) and houses near me are still mostly a million dollars. Or you could go smaller and save money by getting a townhouse for only 950K!

Suburb of DC is your problem, everyday I thank God I'm black and my family mostly lives out in PG where it's less insane (still rising tho)

# ? Feb 13, 2024 05:04

anime was right: Jun 27, 2008; death is certain
keep yr cool

Mr Hootington posted:

https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1757071840927732151?t=LTypsG25KuWdGBFVZ7wjdQ&s=19
https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1757073245973410219?t=n70w3JH-uxu_mB2aGFqKig&s=19
https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1757076121919598706?t=vdm55aAL6r9OlGX7Y6SXFQ&s=19
https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1757132464722489730?t=x0uFaprDut0rO_7CBEcJeA&s=19

"price gouging isnt doing much anymore so we're just gonna raise prices normally now"

# ? Feb 13, 2024 05:16

Hubbert: Mar 25, 2007; At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

MLKQUOTEMACHINE posted:

im reading end times by peter turchin rn and his "anecdote but this is backed up by data" about your average gen x'er is great:

Immediately after is a profile of a lib elite who does the whole "your eyes are lying to you," routine. Good book to read with a critical eye.

MLKQUOTEMACHINE posted:

gently caress it, I gotta post it bc its Too Good

Great excerpts, I'm gonna look into this book now.

# ? Feb 13, 2024 05:25

MLKQUOTEMACHINE: Oct 22, 2012; Some motherfuckers are always trying to ice-skate uphill

Hubbert posted:

Great excerpts, I'm gonna look into this book now.

Its all about some dude mathing up a model that shows how societal collapse is a cyclical phenomenon that can partially be predicted, in no small part, by looking at the amount of useless failsons and daughters a particular society has in it. you can find it on shipdf is you wanna preview it

# ? Feb 13, 2024 05:31

H.P. Hovercraft: Jan 12, 2004; one thing a computer can do that most humans can't is be sealed up in a cardboard box and sit in a warehouse; Slippery Tilde

lol disaster

https://twitter.com/sam_d_1995/status/1757134332953539014

# ? Feb 13, 2024 06:43

Retroflex Ejective: Sep 8, 2013

Paradoxish posted:

lmao that was my first reaction too

like thinking your finances are worse than they actually are will probably lead to better overall decision making so... what?

not if it keeps you from INVESTING because you feel like you can't afford to lose money on stock market 'gambling '

that would be very poor decision making since number can only go up.

# ? Feb 13, 2024 07:01

webcams for christ: Nov 2, 2005

Mr Hootington posted:

Hell of a thread here
https://twitter.com/adamkwolfe/status/1757075837583585453?t=WkC9zuR8aqGpZoECjm7q2A&s=19

beat me to it. great find

https://x.com/adamkwolfe/status/1757075356580794433

# ? Feb 13, 2024 10:28

webcams for christ: Nov 2, 2005

https://x.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1757337809608720815

they won't

# ? Feb 13, 2024 10:41

Gildiss: Aug 24, 2010; Grimey Drawer

Lol the landlords in Korea are suffering.

Renegotiated our rental renewal and the landlord came with pastries for us, agreed to lower our rent 100bux a month and return 20% of our deposit.
He is drowning in interest payment increases since every bank loan here is monthly adjustable rate.

Jay, raise the rates again!

# ? Feb 13, 2024 11:54

gradenko_2000: Oct 5, 2010; HELL SERPENT; Lipstick Apathy

MLKQUOTEMACHINE posted:

gently caress it, I gotta post it bc its Too Good

drat the two posts back to back is very cspam

thanks for sharing

# ? Feb 13, 2024 12:03

fits my needs: Jan 1, 2011; Grimey Drawer

MLKQUOTEMACHINE posted:

gently caress it, I gotta post it bc its Too Good

nice, gonna add it to the audible list.

Deng Xiaoping: A Revolutionary Life is also on there if anyone wanted to podcast it or whatevr, also p interesting

# ? Feb 13, 2024 12:05

Pf. Hikikomoriarty: Feb 15, 2003; RO YNSHO; Slippery Tilde

MLKQUOTEMACHINE posted:

im reading end times by peter turchin rn and his "anecdote but this is backed up by data" about your average gen x'er is great:

Immediately after is a profile of a lib elite who does the whole "your eyes are lying to you," routine. Good book to read with a critical eye.

i've always thought turchin's stuff was very interesting, thanks for posting

# ? Feb 13, 2024 12:14

webcams for christ: Nov 2, 2005

# ? Feb 13, 2024 12:45

shrike82: Jun 11, 2005

https://twitter.com/TheJackForge/status/1757140668403904839

# ? Feb 13, 2024 12:56

19 o'clock: Sep 9, 2004; Excelsior!!!

shrike82 posted:

https://twitter.com/TheJackForge/status/1757140668403904839

many people are saying this

# ? Feb 13, 2024 13:03

RealityWarCriminal: Aug 10, 2016

another banger

# ? Feb 13, 2024 13:14

FizFashizzle: Mar 30, 2005

I mean it�s obviously not �the worst� salary range but I kinda get it just because i have huge student loan debt and my mortgage costs less than rents so if I wanted to stop working I�d have to quit my job, change my IBR total, sell my house and I dunno live in a van by the river.

lol I literally can�t afford to sell my house great loving country we have here.

# ? Feb 13, 2024 13:17

webcams for christ: Nov 2, 2005

https://x.com/lizannsonders/status/1757018848702730416

# ? Feb 13, 2024 13:32

FizFashizzle: Mar 30, 2005

Speaking of houses

https://x.com/collinrugg/status/1757217532921221518?s=46&t=JBd6ZXmGQ3LmWL-ineTnAA

# ? Feb 13, 2024 13:34

ikanreed: Sep 25, 2009; I honestly I have no idea who cannibal[SIC] is and I do not know why I should know.

syq dude, just syq!

shrike82 posted:

https://twitter.com/TheJackForge/status/1757140668403904839

Counter point: that's plenty of loving money.

# ? Feb 13, 2024 13:37

Shageletic: Jul 25, 2007

ikanreed posted:

Counter point: that's plenty of loving money.

Yeah the worst salary range is anything less than that amd gets worse from there

# ? Feb 13, 2024 13:48

Orange Devil: Oct 1, 2010; Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

MLKQUOTEMACHINE posted:

gently caress it, I gotta post it bc its Too Good

Liberals use this lining of reasoning constantly. "Look at how capitalism is reducing global poverty!". If you actually look at it you see it's like 99% Communist China.

# ? Feb 13, 2024 13:52

SpaceCadetBob: Dec 27, 2012

FizFashizzle posted:

Speaking of houses

https://x.com/collinrugg/status/1757217532921221518?s=46&t=JBd6ZXmGQ3LmWL-ineTnAA

wow these bluffs are such a beautiful natural terrain feature. i wonder what made them�

# ? Feb 13, 2024 13:53

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# ? May 25, 2024 19:18

gradenko_2000: Oct 5, 2010; HELL SERPENT; Lipstick Apathy

I guess that's one way to make the housing market go down

# ? Feb 13, 2024 13:54

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Doomsday Economics] Home of Kirbeh's FREE SLICE ($25 delivery fee)

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