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koolkal posted:
Regarding Suozzi and NY-3, I actually don't think you can compare it to Biden in 2020. That's because there was a heavy shift in NY to Republicans in 2022, so heavy that it's likely that NY (and to some degree, CA) cost Democrats the House. Democrats overperformed in 2022 nationwide but underperformed in these two states. So this makes the Democratic swing in NY-03 that more impressive to me. Interesting about the Democrats underperforming in 2024 so far. I will say that regarding the special elections being good predictors of the general, this applies much more so when the overperformance is by a large margin. When it's within a few points, special elections don't predict as well. There was only one time since the 80s or 90s that the special election results had a large swing that did not pan out in the subsequent election and that was in 1998, after Clinton's impeachment (Democrats won that year when Republicans won the previous year). But that was also not a general election. Democratic overperformance in 2022 and 2023 qualify as large swings (+11 in 2023) so it's very likely that Democrats win in 2024 just by historical precedent. Edit: regarding D underperformance in 2024 so far, it looks like Democrats still managed to flip 2 seats while Republicans flipped just one. Maybe the flipped seats were swing seats and the others were not so contested (phone posting so I'm not checking now). It is telling, I think, that the hottest election of 2024 was won by a Democrat in a swing seat and he managed to 2x his polls. small butter fucked around with this message at 04:45 on Feb 20, 2024 |
# ? Feb 20, 2024 04:00 |
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# ? Jun 7, 2024 03:31 |
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small butter posted:Regarding Suozzi and NY-3, I actually don't think you can compare it to Biden in 2020. That's because there was a heavy shift in NY to Republicans in 2022, so heavy that it's likely that NY (and to some degree, CA) cost Democrats the House. Democrats overperformed in 2022 nationwide but underperformed in these two states. So this makes the Democratic swing in NY-03 that more impressive to me. While I'm upstate and don't follow city politics closely, I understand that in 2022 part of Democratic underperformance in New York was in heavily Jewish districts a result of city/state level Democrats moving to regulate Hasidic schools that focus entirely on religious instruction to the point of deliberately leaving students unprepared to find work or further education in the secular world. Advocates for those schools (including opportunistic Republican groups) successfully spun it as an antisemitic crackdown despite the schools being lovely by any measure. The bright news there was that one of those was Santos' district that flipped back Dem by a significant margin despite the Republican candidate being an Orthodox Jew and Republicans still trying to capitalize on it. That suggests it's not necessarily a long-term turn against Democrats on the national level. Though it does make the whole I/P optics issue all the more fraught within the party.
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 04:38 |
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An element that's really worth highlighting is that the normal dynamic where Republicans do better among likely voters and Democrats with registered voters has flipped, as Dems pick up a lot of people turned off by Trump and Trump in turn energizes people not likely to vote normally.
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 04:58 |
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Morrow posted:An element that's really worth highlighting is that the normal dynamic where Republicans do better among likely voters and Democrats with registered voters has flipped, as Dems pick up a lot of people turned off by Trump and Trump in turn energizes people not likely to vote normally. The thing is, he's already activated all the low engagement chuds. There's no longer a large untapped block of electorally silent haters to suddenly show up at the polls. The X Factor seems to be people who voted Biden reluctantly or stayed home in shame. Will they still find Biden acceptable enough to show up or not vote Trump?
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 05:35 |
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Gyges posted:The thing is, he's already activated all the low engagement chuds. There's no longer a large untapped block of electorally silent haters to suddenly show up at the polls. The X Factor seems to be people who voted Biden reluctantly or stayed home in shame. Will they still find Biden acceptable enough to show up or not vote Trump? I would have said Trump got all the low engagement chuds in 2016 but he somehow got way more votes in 2020 I'm assuming a lot more first time chuds will spawn out of the aether once again
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 05:44 |
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It’s also been four more years of his already elderly base refusing to take basic precautions against an endemic and fatal virus.
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 05:47 |
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small butter posted:Last year, Protasiewicz won by double digits in WI in what was supposed to be a close race, not to mention the +11 Democratic swing in special elections nationwide. The maps still slightly favor the Wisconsin Republicans. Half of the state Senate is up every 2 years. It wouldn't be possible to pick up enough state Senate seats to flip the state Senate in just 2024. Maybe we can get some actual governance out of flipping the assembly and putting pressure on the senate. The assembly leader on the republican side (Robin Vos) has been losing a lot of sway lately and is being primaried. If he goes down and/or the assembly can flip a lot of good could come from the Wisconsin government for once.
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 07:23 |
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I posted this in another thread but it’s relevant here too. The Times ran an OpEd on part time work that’s very much worth a read: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/19/opinion/part-time-workers-usa.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare NYTs posted:
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 07:31 |
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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:I would have said Trump got all the low engagement chuds in 2016 but he somehow got way more votes in 2020 In 2016 he was supposed to get clobbered by Hillary. When he won it emboldened all the cowardly scumsuckers who skipped 2016, and made them feel like it was finally acceptable to proudly wave the shithead flag. Which is part of why they lost their minds about how Biden stole the election. They didn't want to have burned all those social bridges with their friends and family for no reason. It was finally the time of bigots again. Trump probably does get more votes due to population growth, but the big question mark is how many people lost the drive to crawl naked through broken glass to vote against Donny.
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 09:36 |
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Gyges posted:Trump probably does get more votes due to population growth, but the big question mark is how many people lost the drive to crawl naked through broken glass to vote against Donny. Population growth is somewhat offset by Trump's voting cohort dying at a greater rate both due to being an older demographic as well as one inclined towards idiotic defiance of vaccination and public health practices during Covid. And I choose to be encouraged by the fact that Dems have performed relatively well in midterms and specials, even when Trump is NOT on the ballot, Dem voters have been doing okay turning out, I find it a bit hard to believe that they all suddenly hate Biden within the last year or so but will try to keep an open mind.
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 09:49 |
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Zwabu posted:Population growth is somewhat offset by Trump's voting cohort dying at a greater rate both due to being an older demographic as well as one inclined towards idiotic defiance of vaccination and public health practices during Covid. And I choose to be encouraged by the fact that Dems have performed relatively well in midterms and specials, even when Trump is NOT on the ballot, Dem voters have been doing okay turning out, I find it a bit hard to believe that they all suddenly hate Biden within the last year or so but will try to keep an open mind. The ongoing support for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza really has me leaning towards only voting down ballot. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 13:29 |
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unfortunately the greater population either largely doesn't give a poo poo about what's going on in gaza or actively supports it b/c "israel is the good guys". while it's appalling and disgusting to us, it is not to the majority of the voting bloc, and so it is unlikely to negatively impact biden in any significant way
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 13:54 |
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Bel Shazar posted:The ongoing support for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza really has me leaning towards only voting down ballot. Here's the deal, both sides are going to support Israel one reluctantly and the other full throatedly. But only one is determined to commit genocide here in the United States. I'm voting against that second. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 14:21 |
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Apparently Haley is announcing her drop out today. Not really shocked since she had no way forward and she was gonna get crushed in South Carolina. Dapper_Swindler fucked around with this message at 14:53 on Feb 20, 2024 |
# ? Feb 20, 2024 14:44 |
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Bar Ran Dun posted:I posted this in another thread but it’s relevant here too. Thanks for the article. It's a good read, but the problems with part-time work have been known forever. There just isn't much will to do anything about it. California and a few other states have "predictable scheduling" laws that require advance notice of schedules and hours and regulate how employers can schedule part-time employees. They have been fairly successful in improving the stats compared to other states, but I don't know if they are solving all or most of the issues or not. It seems like a national version of those bills would make a lot of sense.
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 14:52 |
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Capital One is buying Discover Financial and moving many of their cards off of the Visa and Mastercard network and on to the Discover network. There's probably not much immediate short-term impact on the average consumer, but it could have a big impact on the shift away from Visa and Mastercard's domination of the payment processor market. On the negative side, even though it may slightly reduce the foothold Visa has on the payment processor market, it also means that there will be one fewer choice for credit card providers on the market. Capitol One will keep the Discover brand and all of their products, but the move will take the number of major credit card issuers down from 5 to 4. The DOJ has not approved the deal yet and is doing an anti-trust review, but this particular case is a complicated one. Discover is solely a credit card issuer, whereas all other major card lenders are banks that also offer credit cards. There's not a ton of case law to determine the specifics of how to apply anti-trust law when a bank purchases a non-bank business. Additionally, there are huge amounts of minor or local credit card issuers that may count as competition for the company despite the fact that there would only be 4 "major" national issuers. quote:Capital One will buy Discover for $35 billion in deal that combines major US credit card companies https://apnews.com/article/capital-one-discover-financial-merger-credit-cards-3444782717e668b896883f09bda27baa Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 15:12 on Feb 20, 2024 |
# ? Feb 20, 2024 15:10 |
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Skex posted:Here's the deal, both sides are going to support Israel one reluctantly and the other full throatedly. I'm no longer convinced a) one side thinks they need to wait until they are in control to commit genocide b) the other will do anything meaningful to stop the first But I get where you're coming from.
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 15:51 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Capital One is buying Discover Financial and moving many of their cards off of the Visa and Mastercard network and on to the Discover network. No! I hope Biden blocks this.
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 16:58 |
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Skex posted:Here's the deal, both sides are going to support Israel one reluctantly and the other full throatedly. The second point you raised is correct, but if anything I think Biden is far more supportive of Israel than Trump is. All it would take is one perceived slight for Trump to abandon them, while Biden is perfectly willing to take slap after slap from Netanyahu while trying to funnel even more money to him.
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 17:17 |
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Dapper_Swindler posted:Apparently Haley is announcing her drop out today. Not really shocked since she had no way forward and she was gonna get crushed in South Carolina. https://twitter.com/sppeoples/status/1759964069786800197 She's saying it's not that.
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 17:18 |
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Yawgmoft posted:The second point you raised is correct, but if anything I think Biden is far more supportive of Israel than Trump is. All it would take is one perceived slight for Trump to abandon them, while Biden is perfectly willing to take slap after slap from Netanyahu while trying to funnel even more money to him. No he is not. And frankly repeating this lie should be a ban at this point.
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 17:25 |
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Yawgmoft posted:The second point you raised is correct, but if anything I think Biden is far more supportive of Israel than Trump is. All it would take is one perceived slight for Trump to abandon them, while Biden is perfectly willing to take slap after slap from Netanyahu while trying to funnel even more money to him. https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-benjamin-netanyahu-israel-hamas-republicans-63295565c0abe5b30da5898a6b8eb01a https://apnews.com/article/trump-netanyahu-israel-2024-primary-criticism-7fb4181b664bb28408ff92b8e5565ced I suspect that while he personally doesn't care, his party being so pro-Israel will push him to also be pro-Israel.
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 17:25 |
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Trump's policy advisors are releasing plans for "Christian Nationalist" policy to be ready to be implemented on day one of a potential new Trump administration. Politico has gotten ahold of internal documents from Trump campaign advisors and former Trump admin officials with a list of policy ideas that they have agreed to pursue. These include: - A 16-week national ban on abortion (individual states could go farther). - An end to "no fault" divorce. - Ending surrogacy. - Using federal education funding to end sex education in schools. - Change federal programs that penalize marriage. - Revoke FDA approval of "chemical abortion drugs" and the ability to receive abortion drugs via mail. - Protecting “religious and moral” objections for employers who decline contraception coverage for employees. - Eliminate policies that "subsidize single-motherhood” (no specifics given). - Increasing surveillance of abortion and maternal mortality reporting in the states. - Invoking the Insurrection Act on Day One to quash protests. - Refusing to spend authorized congressional funds on unwanted projects (a practice made illegal under Nixon) and fight the case to the Supreme Court. - Eliminating the diversity lottery for immigration and reforming immigration criteria away from nation of origin, education, family connections, and employment to instead base immigration quality on their commitment to biblical teachings. Saying a person’s background doesn’t define who can enter the U.S., but rather, citing Biblical teachings, whether that person “accept[ed] Israel’s God, laws and understanding of history.” - Create a new federal task force on fighting anti-Christian bias to be led by "a fully reformed Department of Justice that’s fair and equitable.” - Get court rulings recognizing that the separation of church and state is “a commitment to an institutional separation between church and state, but not the separation of Christianity from its influence on government and society. Such a framework can lead to beneficial outcomes for our own communities, as well as individuals of all faiths.” - Eliminate funding for and penalize state programs that promote transgender acceptance and replace them with programs that attempt to help correct gender confusion in youths. https://twitter.com/politico/status/1759881338272760154 quote:Trump allies prepare to infuse ‘Christian nationalism’ in second administration Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 17:35 on Feb 20, 2024 |
# ? Feb 20, 2024 17:27 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Trump's policy advisors are releasing plans for "Christian Nationalist" policy to be ready to be implemented on day one of a potential new Trump administration. Essentially they want to establish that this is a Christian nation in all but name
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 17:33 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Trump's policy advisors are releasing plans for "Christian Nationalist" policy to be ready to be implemented on day one of a potential new Trump administration. Lmao it's like the Trump team saw all the "Trump the moderate" takes that are for some reason going around and really didn't want that poo poo catching on or anything.
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 17:37 |
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FlamingLiberal posted:Ok this stuff is legit terrifying Yeah if they actually do this that's the end of the first amendment and the Great Experiment has conclusively failed "subsidizing single motherhood" is probably going to be killing stuff like food stamps and CHIP
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 17:38 |
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Skex posted:No he is not. also, we all going to catch probes because us election talk is no longer allowed in the 'talk about us politics' thread and has been hidden in a quarantine again
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 17:39 |
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It's terrifying but in a weird way I'm "glad" they're being so upfront about it. It's going to turn a lot of people off (I would hope)
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 17:39 |
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Imagine being a left/liberal voter and getting a manifesto that clear and intentionally pointed at what you actually want, not mediated by a need to seem reasonable or willing to compromise. Just a pure vision of the country you want to live in, elucidated by the people you are being told your vote will empower. It's got to feel incredible to be pandered to that much, to be told what you care about actually really does matter, and to see a policy plan that at least goes beyond "We'll make healthcare savings available to tax credit qualifying households." Now, I don't think they'll be able to accomplish maybe even 10 or 15% of what is in that plan, were Trump to win, for reasons we can get into, but you have to envy the willingness to completely throw away the mask, and give the base something to really hope for and work for. That's good politics, regardless of what you think of the policies themselves, which are horrible. I honestly cannot imagine what a politician making an offer this tempting and blood-quickening to the Dem base would even look like, or who could credibly offer it to them; Bernie was successfully neutered, and the Squad doesn't have anybody with both the willingness and the clout to pull it off.
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 17:40 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Trump's policy advisors are releasing plans for "Christian Nationalist" policy to be ready to be implemented on day one of a potential new Trump administration. They could have just said "Nazis"
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 17:41 |
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World Famous W posted:who is not? biden isn't a dyed in the wool zionist or trump ain't a petty fucker? Bibi fawns over trump like a sycophant because he's not an idiot and knows he's easy to play. I don't think the man who moved the embassy to Jerusalem and who is about to announce a "Christian nationalist" platform is going to suddenly have a change of heart wrt Israel.
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 17:43 |
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metachronos posted:It's terrifying but in a weird way I'm "glad" they're being so upfront about it. It's going to turn a lot of people off (I would hope) They may not actually be up front about it. He did a similar thing in 2016, where he was telling everyone he was going to ban abortion and get Roe overturned, but when confronted about it in the debates he said he would never do that. Then, went back to privately assuring Christian groups that he was definitely going to ban abortion. He rarely brought it up unprompted, though. When he accidentally said part of it publicly during the debates (that abortion was going to be made illegal and that the woman should face criminal charges if she breaks the law), then the pro-life groups told him to walk it back and stop making that argument, which he did.
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 17:43 |
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Skex posted:No he is not. Nothing of what Yawgmoft said was untrue. Biden is wasting enormous amounts of political capital to support Israels PM who's hoping Biden loses his upcoming election.
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 17:43 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Trump's policy advisors are releasing plans for "Christian Nationalist" policy to be ready to be implemented on day one of a potential new Trump administration. Too bad the Genocide Joe folks don't care about Christofascism here or domestic policy and would rather vote for Trump just because they incorrectly perceive him as less beholden to Israel.
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 17:44 |
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Crows Turn Off posted:This stuff is terrifying and possible. This list should be made clear far and wide to every possible Democratic voter.
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 17:47 |
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If Trump tells you a list of things that he is going to do, and you actually think he's going to do that, you are a big of a rube as his supporters.
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 17:47 |
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/sppeoples/status/1759964069786800197 i know it won't be but maybe she is airing some dirty laundry. Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Trump's policy advisors are releasing plans for "Christian Nationalist" policy to be ready to be implemented on day one of a potential new Trump administration. its terryfying but its also gonna turn off anyone not in the boat for it. the GOP NEEDS the indies and moderates to come out for them and this poo poo isnt gonna help them.
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 17:49 |
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I do find it kind of darkly funny that they are willing to put down as policy really extreme stuff like ending no fault divorce, ending surrogacy, and being in favor of amending the concept of separation of church and state, but the same document that advocates for Christian Nationalism also takes a compromise position on abortion and explicitly allows blue states to keep performing abortions for the first 16 weeks.
Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 17:52 on Feb 20, 2024 |
# ? Feb 20, 2024 17:50 |
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Crows Turn Off posted:This stuff is terrifying and possible. This list should be made clear far and wide to every possible Democratic voter. Not voting for Biden is not the same thing as voting for Trump, and neither do they think that Trump somehow would be "less beholden to Israel". They just don't want to cast their vote for someone supplying the means for Israel to genocide people.
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 17:50 |
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# ? Jun 7, 2024 03:31 |
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:I do find it kind of darkly funny that they are willing to put down as policy really extreme stuff like ending no fault divorce, ending surrogacy, and being in favor of amending the concept of separation of church and state, but the same document that advocates for Christian Nationalism also takes a compromise position on abortion and explicitly allows blue states to keep performing abortions for the first 16 weeks. They think nobody will read past the abortion headline except devotees.
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# ? Feb 20, 2024 17:52 |