The US will lose WW3

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > The US will lose WW3

The Littlest Hobo: Dec 26, 2004

DJJIB-DJDCT posted:

Well, replenish with loving what?

Idk, we have war stores in Montreal, thank God, but that's because we had a giant Cold War army and when downsizing happened some of that stuff was tucked away. There's not much new in there.

Who knows how long that will last, my brother was telling me they sold a lot of the CFB Edmonton vehicles for scrap metal recently

# ? Feb 28, 2024 22:06

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# ? May 25, 2024 23:00

Delta-Wye: Sep 29, 2005

Danann posted:

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1762878909832392921

Blue-on-blue statistics down because the weapons failed to work.

dont worry, german antiair missiles are both safe and effective

# ? Feb 28, 2024 22:07

DJJIB-DJDCT: Feb 1, 2024

The Littlest Hobo posted:

Who knows how long that will last, my brother was telling me they sold a lot of the CFB Edmonton vehicles for scrap metal recently

Yeah they did that with the M109s that were being preserved in war stores.

They also gave a lot of poo poo to Ukraine.

e: which is just scrapping with one extra step.

# ? Feb 28, 2024 22:08

The Oldest Man: Jul 28, 2003

Danann posted:

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1762878909832392921

Blue-on-blue statistics down because the weapons failed to work.

# ? Feb 28, 2024 22:11

Mandel Brotset: Jan 1, 2024

Danann posted:

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1762878909832392921

Blue-on-blue statistics down because the weapons failed to work.

Hatebag posted:

lol

# ? Feb 28, 2024 23:44

Kitfox88: Aug 21, 2007; Anybody lose their glasses?

Orange Devil posted:

Near peer

keep saying china's navy is near peer but they keep hearing china's navy is near pier!

# ? Feb 29, 2024 01:04

Ardent Communist: Oct 17, 2010; ALLAH! MU'AMMAR! LIBYA WA BAS!

Kitfox88 posted:

keep saying china's navy is near peer but they keep hearing china's navy is near pier!

hey, they're just following the uk, who used to rules the waves and now has a near pier navy!

# ? Feb 29, 2024 01:09

Trabisnikof: Dec 24, 2005

Kitfox88 posted:

keep saying china's navy is near peer but they keep hearing china's navy is near pier!

The Royal Navy is a near pier navy.

# ? Feb 29, 2024 02:15

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

Danann posted:

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1762878909832392921

Blue-on-blue statistics down because the weapons failed to work.

Failception.

# ? Feb 29, 2024 03:10

gradenko_2000: Oct 5, 2010; HELL SERPENT; Lipstick Apathy

Zeppelin Insanity posted:

Following on from this thought, remember when many years ago a laptop was found in a Taliban compound, opened to a live stream from a US drone? And it turned out US drones were completely unencrypted?

Everyone I talk to about it insists that it's no big deal and was absolutely fixed afterwards. And maybe this was. But it seems an entirely reasonable assumption that if the US was so lax in one instance, why wouldn't it be in other instances? What faith do we have that instead of having a single contractor fix a single issue, the US went through a complete top-down audit of all of their communications, signals, and weapons?

Everyone made fun of Russian troops in 2014 posting on social media. lmao as if the US troops would be able to resist. We've already had the Reddit Brigade get cruise missiled in 2022 because they couldn't get off their phones in Ukraine. I imagine 202X American information discipline would look a hell of a lot like IDF.

I've heard it said that the reason you know it's not WW3 yet is that the internet is still up.

# ? Feb 29, 2024 03:12

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/big-round-of-applause-to-germany--fires-at-us-drone-twice--f

quote:

english.almayadeen.net
Big round of applause to Germany: fires at US drone twice, fails twice
Al Mayadeen English
4�5 minutes

German Frigate Hesse fired at a US MQ-9 drone in the Red Sea and the interceptors failed, twice.

A report explicitly titled "Embarrassment for our Navy in the Red Sea" by the German tabloid Bild reported that the radar systems of the frigate "Hessen" mistakenly identified a drone circling above it as hostile. As a result, the warship fired two missiles at it.

Fortunately for the US, both German interceptor missiles of the SM-2 type failed to reach their target due to technical reasons, instead falling into the sea without achieving their objective.

The drone was later identified as a US MQ-9 Reaper drone.

The report indicated that this incident demonstrates the partially dire state of the German army under Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

Spokesman for the German Ministry of Defense Michael Stempfle said that when the drone was targeted and fired upon, it was not immediately clear which country the drone belonged to or whether it was associated with any of the allied nations.

Following the initial uncertainty about the drone's origin or affiliation, the "Hessen" made an attempt to shoot down the drone. The ship was however unsuccessful in its endeavor.

"The situation resolved itself in the sense that it was not a hostile drone, as it was determined only afterward," Stempfle said.

Stempfle did not provide information regarding which country the drone was eventually determined to belong to. However, Thomas Wiegold, a military insider, disclosed both the origin and the type of the drone.

Stempfle pointed out that prior to the firing incident, the "Hessen" had communicated with all allied nations to inquire about the presence of their drones in the operational area. However, none of the allied nations reported having their own drones in that area at that time. Despite this, it was later revealed that the drone in question had not been previously reported by any nation.

The report notes that it is common for US combat drones to operate in the region, and while these are active in the area, their operations are not always related to those of the Red Sea.

Florian Hahn who serves as the defense policy spokesperson for the Union faction in the Bundestag, stated that his department only recently became aware, upon inquiry, that a portion of the ammunition needed for the frigate "Hessen" is no longer available for procurement.

"We have now only learned upon inquiry that apparently, a portion of the ammunition for the frigate 'Hessen' is no longer procurable because the corresponding industrial capacity no longer exists," Hahn told Die Welt.

"If the stocks are empty, the Navy cannot replenish them - and must withdraw the frigate," he added.

He further accused the current government of concealing this fact from the opposition for months. "So, the parliament approved a mission without knowing that there is apparently an ammunition problem with the 124 frigate class," said Hahn.

ASPIDES operation to last a year

On February 12, the EU formally announced the launch of Operation ASPIDES, aimed at controlling shipping in the Red Sea due to continuous operations on Israeli-linked vessels by the Yemeni resistance. The mission officially commenced on February 19 and is scheduled to last for a whole year.

Borrell said on January 31 that the European Union aimed to establish and launch the maritime mission in the Red Sea no later than February 19, claiming that it would be "defensive" and no operations would be carried out on land. The EU mission allegedly aims to focus solely on protecting merchant ships by intercepting Yemeni rockets.

The mandate currently involves the deployment of 700 troops and will last till February 28, 2025.

act 1: the american drone is tagged as houthi by the german warship

act 2: the missiles fall into the sea, unable to kill the american drone

act 3: these are lostech missiles, of the dark age of technology of 1967 vintage

# ? Feb 29, 2024 04:22

Owlbear Camus: Jan 3, 2013; Maybe this guy that flies is just sort of passing through, you know?

task failed successfully

# ? Feb 29, 2024 04:23

Scarabrae: Oct 7, 2002

welcome to the resistance germany

# ? Feb 29, 2024 04:33

Trabisnikof: Dec 24, 2005

Danann posted:

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1762878909832392921

Blue-on-blue statistics down because the weapons failed to work.

# ? Feb 29, 2024 05:03

uber_stoat: Jan 21, 2001; Pillbug

# ? Feb 29, 2024 05:11

gradenko_2000: Oct 5, 2010; HELL SERPENT; Lipstick Apathy

we're still doing this huh

https://twitter.com/rapplerdotcom/status/1763051544742592962

# ? Feb 29, 2024 05:16

TeenageArchipelago: Jul 23, 2013

gradenko_2000 posted:

we're still doing this huh

https://twitter.com/rapplerdotcom/status/1763051544742592962

Lmao hell yeah bro go talk to China's manager

# ? Feb 29, 2024 05:25

im_sorry: Jan 15, 2006; (9999); Ultra Carp

gradenko_2000 posted:

we're still doing this huh

https://twitter.com/rapplerdotcom/status/1763051544742592962

"Stop, or I'll have to yell "Stop" again"...

# ? Feb 29, 2024 05:34

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

Our rules apply to you as much as they do every other country. The inverse is not true of course. You silly little countries and your silly little ideas about being real places.

# ? Feb 29, 2024 05:45

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

Rand published a new paper about how it is possible for the US to win a limited war with China.

# ? Feb 29, 2024 06:11

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

RAND posted:

Unlike in Ukraine, U.S. airlifters or vessels would need to bring supplies directly to Taiwanese territory because there are no neighboring borders through which to funnel materiel, which raises the possibility that PRC air defenses might accidentally shoot down or sink a U.S. asset.

# ? Feb 29, 2024 06:23

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

Danann posted:

Rand published a new paper about how it is possible for the US to win a limited war with China.

Any highlights or commentry?

# ? Feb 29, 2024 06:39

Danann: Aug 4, 2013

RAND posted:

Second, the U.S. military still retains a qualitative and, in some areas, quantitative edge over the PLA. The United States has a significant advantage in undersea warfare because of a decades-long lead in technological investments and because geography makes it difficult for the PLA to find U.S. attack submarines in the Taiwan Strait�s shallow waters and the wider Western Pacific (Cote, 2011). RAND research has shown that U.S. attack submarines are therefore particularly well positioned to sink large numbers of the PLA�s amphibious transports (Heginbotham et al., 2015, p. 213).

The U.S. military also has significant capabilities and experience with long-range precision strike, which provide another strong option for targeting the PRC�s amphibious transports (Heginbotham et al., 2015, pp. 111�116). While the PLA Navy now has a larger number of surface combatants than the U.S. Navy, the United States still retains an advantage in larger and more capable classes of ship, such as carriers, cruisers, and destroyers�an advantage that the Office of Naval Intelligence (2020) projects will continue through 2030 despite the PRC�s impressive investments in shipbuilding.

Although it captures only a snapshot of the current balance of forces using 2022 data, Table 4 provides a rough-but-useful breakdown of the major naval and air platforms of the PRC, Taiwan, the United States, and likely U.S. coalition partners. In the air-to-air balance, the United States still has greater numbers of advanced fourth- and fifth-generation fighters, which are likely qualitatively more capable than their PRC counterparts (Heginbotham et al., 2015, pp. 80�82).

This suggests that the U.S. military might still retain some advantages over the PLA in air-to-air combat that RAND research has identified (Heginbotham et al., 2015. p. 92). Although the PRC�s ability to attack U.S. air bases has grown, which threatens to offset the United States� advantages by reducing the number of sorties it can generate, the United States is now prioritizing the ability to conduct distributed and resilient air operations to preserve its ability to generate land-based airpower in the face of PRC air and missile attacks (Lynch et al., 2023).

Third, U.S. allies and partners have increased their investments and preparations for a conflict. Taiwan is increasing its defense spending and extending its conscription obligations from four months to one year, Japan is
planning to double its defense spending over five years and is procuring new long-range strike capabilities, and Australia is significantly deepening its defense cooperation with the United States and Japan (Dooley and Ueno, 2022;Wang, 2022; Brands, 2022).

Table 4:

Tl;DR USA can just

1) Use submarines in Taiwan strait which the Chinese will have trouble countering
2) Fire long range missiles which the Chinese will have trouble countering
3) US vassals are spending more money!!!!
4) If measured by the stuff we find valuable and discounting everything else, the US and vassals are in the lead militarily.

# ? Feb 29, 2024 06:52

BULBASAUR: Apr 6, 2009; Soiled Meat

"theories of victory"

the jokes make themselves

# ? Feb 29, 2024 06:53

DickParasite: Dec 2, 2004; Slippery Tilde

Danann posted:

Table 4:

Tl;DR USA can just

1) Use submarines in Taiwan strait which the Chinese will have trouble countering
2) Fire long range missiles which the Chinese will have trouble countering
3) US vassals are spending more money!!!!
4) If measured by the stuff we find valuable and discounting everything else, the US and vassals are in the lead militarily.

We can use submarines to sink their ships they can't use submarines to sink our ships game over losers.

# ? Feb 29, 2024 06:59

BearsBearsBears: Aug 4, 2022

Are submarines easier or harder to find in shallow waters?

Edit: The US has two (2) total submarine tenders, both from the 1970s.

BearsBearsBears has issued a correction as of 07:06 on Feb 29, 2024

# ? Feb 29, 2024 07:01

stephenthinkpad: Jan 2, 2020

Have they explained how does the US military plan to fly Himars and tanks 700+km from Philippines to Taiwan without getting shot at?

# ? Feb 29, 2024 07:07

Best Friends: Nov 4, 2011

BearsBearsBears posted:

Edit: The US has two (2) total submarine tenders, both from the 1970s.

It�s weird because Americans LOVE tenders

# ? Feb 29, 2024 07:09

Hubbert: Mar 25, 2007; At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

It depends on whether it is diesel-electric or nuclear.

If the former, you can genuinely run silent on battery power - just don't expect to really go anywhere.

If it's the latter, then good luck hiding your acoustic or infrared signature.

# ? Feb 29, 2024 07:09

gradenko_2000: Oct 5, 2010; HELL SERPENT; Lipstick Apathy

BearsBearsBears posted:

Are submarines easier or harder to find in shallow waters?

short answer: easier

long answer:

if it's a nuclear sub, absolutely easier, because a nuc can't turn off all of its machinery, so there's always a signature to be heard. the general noise of shallow waters means you might be able to evade detection for a while, but once someone's picked you up, there's nowhere to run

if it's a diesel-electric, harder, but within reason. a diesel-electric can turn off everything and run on batteries and just become a black hole of sound, and the general noise of shallow waters means it's even harder to find something that isn't making any noise. Once a diesel-electric shoots its shot, it's got even less of a chance of survival compared to a nuc, since it has nowhere to run AND it doesn't have the speed nor the endurance of a nuc, but that was always going to happen no matter the waters, and d-e's are intended to be almost like intelligent sea mines anyway

# ? Feb 29, 2024 07:10

Butter Activities: May 4, 2018

Zeppelin Insanity posted:

Following on from this thought, remember when many years ago a laptop was found in a Taliban compound, opened to a live stream from a US drone? And it turned out US drones were completely unencrypted?

Everyone I talk to about it insists that it's no big deal and was absolutely fixed afterwards. And maybe this was. But it seems an entirely reasonable assumption that if the US was so lax in one instance, why wouldn't it be in other instances? What faith do we have that instead of having a single contractor fix a single issue, the US went through a complete top-down audit of all of their communications, signals, and weapons?

Everyone made fun of Russian troops in 2014 posting on social media. lmao as if the US troops would be able to resist. We've already had the Reddit Brigade get cruise missiled in 2022 because they couldn't get off their phones in Ukraine. I imagine 202X American information discipline would look a hell of a lot like IDF.

To my knowledge there is an inherent physical limitation to how much you can encrypt drone communications with the current communication networks and infrastructure the military uses because it's really goddamn limited on bandwith. That how Iran developed the ability to be like "no it's my drone now."

# ? Feb 29, 2024 07:19

Trimson Grondag 3: Jul 1, 2007; Clapping Larry

Danann posted:

Table 4:

Tl;DR USA can just

1) Use submarines in Taiwan strait which the Chinese will have trouble countering
2) Fire long range missiles which the Chinese will have trouble countering
3) US vassals are spending more money!!!!
4) If measured by the stuff we find valuable and discounting everything else, the US and vassals are in the lead militarily.

that's a very load bearing 2022. Since then four new Type 55s were commissioned along with seven new type 52, around 150-200 new fifth gen fighters etc.

# ? Feb 29, 2024 07:36

DJJIB-DJDCT: Feb 1, 2024

Danann posted:

Table 4:

Tl;DR USA can just

1) Use submarines in Taiwan strait which the Chinese will have trouble countering
2) Fire long range missiles which the Chinese will have trouble countering
3) US vassals are spending more money!!!!
4) If measured by the stuff we find valuable and discounting everything else, the US and vassals are in the lead militarily.

So ugh to those new to the subject, the Strait of Taiwan was known as the grave of US Fleet Boats in WW2 because shallow water makes it easier to detect submarines, and they have nowhere to escape to, so� this will be great.

:psyduck:

# ? Feb 29, 2024 07:46

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

I would trust the PRC assets are also actually crewed too, which is an important yet frequently overlooked aspect.

Also putting Australia there lmao. Strike everything down to "1-2" in that column because I'd bet someone else's money that's all that can be fielded.

# ? Feb 29, 2024 07:46

Butter Activities: May 4, 2018

DancingShade posted:

I would trust the PRC assets are also actually crewed too, which is an important yet frequently overlooked aspect.

Also putting Australia there lmao. Strike everything down to "1-2" in that column because I'd bet someone else's money that's all that can be fielded.

OPTIMAL

MANNING

# ? Feb 29, 2024 07:51

DJJIB-DJDCT: Feb 1, 2024

I mean, they were always going to produce analysis that says �America Wins!� but inverting the history of submarines in littoral waters�

Which would also be entirely covered by the range of Chinese land based ASW planes and even helicopters� I mean�

What are we doing here folks?

# ? Feb 29, 2024 07:51

FirstnameLastname: Jul 10, 2022

playingn pretend kshoom

# ? Feb 29, 2024 07:53

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

Justifying cushy do-nothing jobs in fancy DC offices.

# ? Feb 29, 2024 07:53

DJJIB-DJDCT: Feb 1, 2024

but, they�re going to get a lot of submariners killed without accomplishing anything, which is not great for the eternal rule of the US empire.

Their best case scenario would be something akin to Force Z.

# ? Feb 29, 2024 07:56

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# ? May 25, 2024 23:00

FuzzySlippers: Feb 6, 2009

what if the Chinese don�t come out to play on the ocean? presumably they can keep their ships in port and attack Taiwan and any nearby US ships or subs with near infinite land based resources. Even if the subs manage to hide for a long time they only have to get unlucky once. It�s not like the US can replace subs on any meaningful timeline.

Hell make them operate under duress long enough and those subs would probably start beaching themselves.

Of course covid showed that China can cope with disruptions to world trade a lot easier than America as far as the waiting game. No matter what people say about iron or oil it�s going to be harder for the US to handle no access to Asia than the reverse.

It helped the US in the pacific war that Japan believed in dodgy Jomini notions of the decisive battle and were happy to chase us all around the pacific trying to have the big showdown that would prove to us how awesome their battleships were and that we should give up. China would not be so accommodating no matter how much we beg.

insert Simpsons meme here of Burns closing the door rather than send out the bee spitting dogs or whatever

# ? Feb 29, 2024 07:56

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