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bobtheconqueror
May 10, 2005
Ime simply getting a mortgage requires a purchase agreement of contract of sale, so I think that's less of an issue. However, trying to actually push on any defect clause in a contract or law is going to be fought and will probably require lawyering up, which isn't something people always have the time or money for. I'm quite confident that local climate or weather would be argued as "common knowledge" or something the buyer can and ought to research independently before purchasing the property, not a defect the seller has to explicitly disclose prior to sale.

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Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?

Flowers For Algeria posted:

asking this earnestly: don't you americans have legal provisions whereby a real estate transaction can be voided if the seller didn't disclose known defects?

So I'm not privy to every detail of their situation, but my understanding is (and this seems like it might be a common tactic in some Florida condo communities) that the condo HOA and other owners were pretty good at staying just on the right side of unethical but not illegal. There wasn't any specific defect with their unit, their unit parking space, or even adjoining units in the same building when they purchased. They actually did talk to a lawyer like a year or two after they bought, but they got nowhere.

The reason everything is falling apart now is because the flooding is affecting enough units that the HOA can't continue to claim that this is a problem only for individual unit owners, which means that hiding the condition of the property would most likely be very blatantly illegal at this point. One big issue with condos is that you're going to have a ton of trouble trying to prove that an owner knew anything about a communal defect if there isn't evidence of HOA documentation sent to unit owners about it.

Paradoxish has issued a correction as of 14:48 on Mar 16, 2024

Taima
Dec 31, 2006

tfw you're peeing next to someone in the lineup and they don't know

I would blow Dane Cook posted:

The global sea surface temperature is down a bit lately so have the North Atlantic one instead:

Global SST climate doom is going to be on hold for a while here as we transition to La Nina. And if it's anything as strong of an event as the models are predicting, its going to significantly drop global and of course Pacific SST charts.

It's common for the Atlantic to also display a "sympathetic" warming during El Nino as well (granted this current one is quite severe, probably other factors) so it should also cool to some degree.

This is the essential problem with the way warmth doomers (who are ultimately right) couldn't stop jacking off about El Nino induced warming that will inevitably go away this year.

If you don't factor in oscillations it will never be an accurate discussion :shrug: that being said, the trend towards global warmth continues apace.

Taima has issued a correction as of 14:59 on Mar 16, 2024

gauntanamo bae
Mar 11, 2024

Paradoxish posted:

So I'm not privy to every detail of their situation, but my understanding is (and this seems like it might be a common tactic in some Florida condo communities) that the condo HOA and other owners were pretty good at staying just on the right side of unethical but not illegal. There wasn't any specific defect with their unit, their unit parking space, or even adjoining units in the same building when they purchased. They actually did talk to a lawyer like a year or two after they bought, but they got nowhere.

The reason everything is falling apart now is because the flooding is affecting enough units that the HOA can't continue to claim that this is a problem only for individual unit owners, which means that hiding the condition of the property would most likely be very blatantly illegal at this point. One big issue with condos is that you're going to have a ton of trouble trying to prove that an owner knew anything about a communal defect if there isn't evidence of HOA documentation sent to unit owners about it.

[Biosphere Collapse] very blatantly illegal at this point

Hubbert
Mar 25, 2007

At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

Taima posted:

Global SST climate doom is going to be on hold for a while here as we transition to La Nina. And if it's anything as strong of an event as the models are predicting, its going to significantly drop global and of course Pacific SST charts.

It's common for the Atlantic to also display a "sympathetic" warming during El Nino as well (granted this current one is quite severe, probably other factors) so it should also cool to some degree.

This is the essential problem with the way warmth doomers (who are ultimately right) couldn't stop jacking off about El Nino induced warming that will inevitably go away this year.

If you don't factor in oscillations it will never be an accurate discussion :shrug: that being said, the trend towards global warmth continues apace.

thank you taima

:blessed:

Hubbert has issued a correction as of 15:07 on Mar 16, 2024

Taima
Dec 31, 2006

tfw you're peeing next to someone in the lineup and they don't know

Hubbert posted:

thank you taima

:blessed:

:cheers: friend

The opposite of 2023 doom is going to happen now in later 2024 as the climate deniers do the exact same thing in the opposite direction, happens every time :cheersdoge:

"SST is down, pack it up doomailures"

No, not really...

El Nino is losing influence in a warming world but it's still the Big Dog and ignoring it is always going to lead to what is simply an incorrect view of the trends. So, every time there's an El Nino the warmth people start going nuts, then when it slaps over to La Nina we have to hear the exclamations about how temps are dropping and nothing is wrong. We're about to enter that stage so just try to ignore them.

RandomBlue
Dec 30, 2012

hay guys!


Biscuit Hider

Taima posted:

Global SST climate doom is going to be on hold for a while here as we transition to La Nina. And if it's anything as strong of an event as the models are predicting, its going to significantly drop global and of course Pacific SST charts.

It's common for the Atlantic to also display a "sympathetic" warming during El Nino as well (granted this current one is quite severe, probably other factors) so it should also cool to some degree.

This is the essential problem with the way warmth doomers (who are ultimately right) couldn't stop jacking off about El Nino induced warming that will inevitably go away this year.

If you don't factor in oscillations it will never be an accurate discussion :shrug: that being said, the trend towards global warmth continues apace.

There are many El Ninos on that chart and none are even close to this last one.

Dokapon Findom
Dec 5, 2022

They hated Futanari because His posts were shit.
It really is everything, isn't it? The mass releases of methane, burning forests, reduced albedo and cloud cover from ice loss and "clean" ship emissions, angry sun- all these things plus El Nino suggest that warming is not going to go down at any rate, only slowed once El Nino subsides

The Protagonist
Jun 29, 2009

The average is 5.5? I thought it was 4. This is very unsettling.
i think nothing will happen and everything will go back to normal

i feel much better, wrap it up doomers

Taima
Dec 31, 2006

tfw you're peeing next to someone in the lineup and they don't know

RandomBlue posted:

There are many El Ninos on that chart and none are even close to this last one.

You're conflating El Nino with global SST

The Protagonist posted:

i think nothing will happen and everything will go back to normal

i feel much better, wrap it up doomers

I know you're joking but this is pretty much literally why no one at each extreme side of the conversation feels like including oscillation in their climate remarks whether doomer or denier. It's politically useful.

Dokapon Findom posted:

It really is everything, isn't it? The mass releases of methane, burning forests, reduced albedo and cloud cover from ice loss and "clean" ship emissions, angry sun- all these things plus El Nino suggest that warming is not going to go down at any rate, only slowed once El Nino subsides

El Nino is an oscillation. It just adds or subtracts from the current SST readings if you're looking on a basin-wide chart or a global chart.

My point here, and it's the last time I'll attempt it, is that you need to "adjust" global SST via the oscillatory nature of El Nino if you want to get at the real meat of it. It's something to adjust for (in both directions; during La Nina, "base" global SST is undervalued, and during El Nino, it's over-valued). Is that more clear?

It's not the only oscillation either, you have the PDO and such, but El Nino is the big one.

If you don't attempt to account for oscillations you're just going to be confused when the oscillations change. It's just one part of the whole, but an important one. Looking at the Global SST chart in a vacuum, as this thread is very keen on doing, is misguided when attempting to understand the full system.

Analogy time: you're trying to gauge sea level in a cove. You measure it when the tide is high, and say "wow the water got really high, that's crazy". Then, another time in the year, you measure the cove during a Minus Tide and the cove has lost water. You then say "wow what happened to all the water? That's crazy"

It's the same cove. You are just missing the oscillatory nature of tides and its effect on the sea level in the cove, over-stating and under-stating it in equal measure by failing to understand its flow. As a result you are, on a basic level, misunderstanding the readings. Without incorporating findings from the oscillatory nature of the Tide, you misunderstand the bigger picture to some degree.

Taima has issued a correction as of 16:20 on Mar 16, 2024

RandomBlue
Dec 30, 2012

hay guys!


Biscuit Hider

Taima posted:

You're conflating El Nino with global SST

My point is that the chart covers many El Nino years not that it's a chart of El Ninos and that whatever impact it's having now, it also had impact in those other years and I don't believe the anomalies this year can be explained by El Nino. Sure it was a contributing factor but it was also a contributing factor in prior years that didn't go off the rails.

Taima posted:

Analogy time: you're trying to gauge sea level in a cove. You measure it when the tide is high, and say "wow the water got really high, that's crazy". Then, another time in the year, you measure the cove during a Minus Tide and the cove has lost water. You then say "wow what happened to all the water? That's crazy"

It's the same cove. You are just missing the oscillatory nature of tides and its effect on the sea level in the cove, over-stating and under-stating it in equal measure by failing to understand its flow. As a result you are, on a basic level, misunderstanding the readings. Without incorporating findings from the oscillatory nature of the Tide, you misunderstand the bigger picture to some degree.

To use your analogy, you're acting like we don't have other high and low tides to compare it to and we do, we have plenty and they show last year to be an extreme anomaly.

RandomBlue has issued a correction as of 17:39 on Mar 16, 2024

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003

It's El Nino, it's supposed to create 365 straight days of all time high global mean SST records

Clark Nova
Jul 18, 2004

Flowers For Algeria posted:

asking this earnestly: don't you americans have legal provisions whereby a real estate transaction can be voided if the seller didn't disclose known defects?


I'm pretty sure the american economy would collapse overnight if it were made slightly more difficult to buy, paint and flip a hovel made out moldy plywood and rat corpses

Skaffen-Amtiskaw
Jun 24, 2023

*Thinking the hardest I've ever thought*

What if climate change... is cyclical? Bah gawd! I cracked it!

I shall just wait for the biosphere to get back to normal. ez pz

quiggy
Aug 7, 2010

[in Russian] Oof.


The Oldest Man posted:

It's El Nino, it's supposed to create 365 straight days of all time high global mean SST records

Erghh
Sep 24, 2007

"Let him speak!"

Paradoxish posted:

So I'm not privy to every detail of their situation, but my understanding is (and this seems like it might be a common tactic in some Florida condo communities) that the condo HOA and other owners were pretty good at staying just on the right side of unethical but not illegal. There wasn't any specific defect with their unit, their unit parking space, or even adjoining units in the same building when they purchased. They actually did talk to a lawyer like a year or two after they bought, but they got nowhere.

The reason everything is falling apart now is because the flooding is affecting enough units that the HOA can't continue to claim that this is a problem only for individual unit owners, which means that hiding the condition of the property would most likely be very blatantly illegal at this point. One big issue with condos is that you're going to have a ton of trouble trying to prove that an owner knew anything about a communal defect if there isn't evidence of HOA documentation sent to unit owners about it.

sounding like its entered solid bag holder territory then (or canary in the coalmine territory).

anyway I'm sure things can always get worse/dumber.

Blockade
Oct 22, 2008

Hubbert posted:

This thread is all about masquerading as morally superior while carefully hiding away any and all details on your international travel adventures, your abhorrent lifestyle practices, and how many children you've produced.

It's all going away whether you eat your treats or dont

gather ye treats while ye may imo

two-time fee
Jan 13, 2022

Xaris posted:

The quality of life has empirically improved for everyone on this planet relative to 30 years ago let alone 50. We live longer, we have more access to healthcare and Technology. More people have University degrees than ever before. Pollution has significantly decreased There is no more smog warnings or smog at all in most Metropolitan City in North America. Acid rain is no longer a thing. I don't know how people don't realize this is the best time in human history to be alive relative to anybody else that has been alive before. Anybody that thinks otherwise I think just hates Humanity.

Hubbert
Mar 25, 2007

At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

Taima posted:

I know you're joking but this is pretty much literally why no one at each extreme side of the conversation feels like including oscillation in their climate remarks whether doomer or denier. It's politically useful.

Taima is strong and my friend, which is why I wanted to hear their perspective. It's why the debate around measured average global "decline" in global SST temperatures (if it does happen) will be so important for the larger narrative in upcoming months, and why maintaining a critical scientific perspective is so important to climate change studies (you can still have Doom brain too).

Everyone loves to look at their favourite Twitter (X, the Everything App) math grandpa chart, and go "OMG OMG!!!"

It's like watching your favourite sports game -- which way are you cheering for Number to go?



What people don't talk about is the longer historical record; we are extraordinarily fortunate to have first-hand meterological measures from the late 18th century (greatly improving with quality as time went on), back when they threw a thermometer with a bucket overboard and wrote down the result.



This graph shows the longer view -- that yes, the future is alarming, but remember just how far we've come -- note that we've seen consistent warming periods in the 1920s-1940s, and from 1980-onwards towards (that last temporal range is the Twitter (X, the Everything App) math grandpa chart). You might also want to note the plateauing trend from the 1940s to the 1970s, and the cooling trend in 1900-1910. Let's read Taima's analogy again:

Taima posted:

Analogy time: you're trying to gauge sea level in a cove. You measure it when the tide is high, and say "wow the water got really high, that's crazy". Then, another time in the year, you measure the cove during a Minus Tide and the cove has lost water. You then say "wow what happened to all the water? That's crazy"

It's the same cove. You are just missing the oscillatory nature of tides and its effect on the sea level in the cove, over-stating and under-stating it in equal measure by failing to understand its flow. As a result you are, on a basic level, misunderstanding the readings. Without incorporating findings from the oscillatory nature of the Tide, you misunderstand the bigger picture to some degree.

I just went ahead and decided to show what the data looks like with the oscillatory nature of the Tide for global average SSTs since 1850. You can even see the oscillations on a yearly basis in the first graph. Yes, Number is going up -- but it's also a misleading number. Part of the reason why I talked about El Nino, which sometimes has an "outsized" representation on this topic, is because it represents an Extreme that we've had recently.

It also ignores the fact that we've also seen record-breaking regional-scale marine heatwaves (take the "recent" Mediterranean or the Pacific Northwest Heat Dome, for example), which further provides the upper scale / "outlier" of that "average". Number is going up, but Number is the recording of all data points -- it cannot capture regional-scale "ups" and "downs", just the greatest waves we have. The global average SST temperature measure is painting the situation with broad strokes, which means you'll never get to see the details that really matter on a local scale.

I'm now going to share with you this graph, one from earlier.


That graph raises an interesting question -- what happens if our "lows" aren't so low, and if our "highs" continue to be so high, from each decade to the next? Hansen even talks about El Nino, let's go over that.

quote:

Abstract. Record global temperature in 2023 helps reveal acceleration of global warming on
decadal time scales. The proximate cause of the acceleration is increase of Earth’s energy
imbalance, specifically a substantial darkening of the planet (decreased albedo) equivalent to
a CO2 increase of more than 100 ppm, although it is difficult to apportion the albedo change
between aerosol forcing and cloud feedbacks because of limited global measurements. Large
2023 warming is consistent with key findings in Global Warming in the Pipeline:3 reduced
aerosol cooling and high climate sensitivity. We expect record monthly temperatures to
continue into mid-2024 due to the present large planetary energy imbalance, with the 12-
month running-mean global temperature reaching +1.6-1.7°C relative to 1880-1920 and
falling to only +1.4 ± 0.1°C during the following La Nina. Considering the large planetary
energy imbalance, it will be clear that the world is passing through the 1.5°C ceiling, and is
headed much higher, unless steps are taken to affect Earth’s energy imbalance.

[...]

Use of El Ninos as a measuring stick depends on the El Ninos being comparable. The Nino3.4
temperature (Fig. 3) may be a flawed measure of El Nino strength. It implies that the 2015-16 El
Nino was stronger than the “El Nino of the (20th) century” in 1997-98. A better measure is probably
the heat content anomaly in the upper 300m of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 3, bottom) because the
300m heat anomaly is a direct measure of the excess heat available for expulsion to the atmosphere.
The 300m heat content shows that the three El Ninos successively decrease in magnitude, with the
2023-24 El Nino notably unimpressive. Further discussion and illustration of this matter is in a prior
communication.8 A declining strength of the El Ninos only enhances our conclusions.

Taima isn't trying to minimize the threat we face moving forward; he's trying to help explain some of the greater trends we see that affects the Earth's oceans -- and therefore, continued agricultural civilization's existence on this planet as we formally exit the Holocene.

I really loving hate what the discussion on climate change (and "collapse", to a greater extent) has really become; I want us to understand the complex systems we live in, to ask questions and try to explore what the future will look like together. Average Global Surface Sea Temperatures is just the Politically Useful 15-Minute Fame Topic right now; if Things Aren't That Bad Yet, then I'm sure we'll all find another form of Doom to clutch onto -- and don't worry, there are loads.

The Oldest Man posted:

It's El Nino, it's supposed to create 365 straight days of all time high global mean SST records

edit:

Blockade posted:

It's all going away whether you eat your treats or dont

gather ye treats while ye may imo

im going to have some treats now :buddy:

Hubbert has issued a correction as of 21:09 on Mar 16, 2024

The Protagonist
Jun 29, 2009

The average is 5.5? I thought it was 4. This is very unsettling.
im gonna The Secret climate change out of existence. look at that graph, im doing it rn

quiggy
Aug 7, 2010

[in Russian] Oof.


what im hearing is things arent that bad, yet

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003

Pretty sure this is the thread for hooting and hollering at the train wreck we're trapped in the middle of first and foremost

If you want a nuanced scientific debate go to an ipcc subcommittee meeting and exclude a hot model from aggregate risk assessment about it

Blockade
Oct 22, 2008

If we're really lucky and come together and work really hard at it, we might see a hypercane in our lifetimes

RandomBlue
Dec 30, 2012

hay guys!


Biscuit Hider
look, all I'm saying is

:supaburn:

SniperWoreConverse
Mar 20, 2010



Gun Saliva

quiggy posted:

what im hearing is things arent that bad, yet

Trump chart is real

Dokapon Findom
Dec 5, 2022

They hated Futanari because His posts were shit.
Even if the climate goes back to normal somehow we're still trashing the actual life support systems of the planet through overexploitation of land and viewing everything as a resource to inevitably be tapped. The Einsteins of the future are not likely to be more empowered than the Einsteins of today to solve that problem (that is if they choose to devote their genius to remediating the biosphere as opposed to- any other thing an autonomous person can choose to do with their time and intellect)

TeenageArchipelago
Jul 23, 2013


SniperWoreConverse posted:

Trump chart is real

JAY ZERO SUM GAME
Oct 18, 2005

Walter.
I know you know how to do this.
Get up.


here's a recent post from the arctic sea ice forum, cutting to the chase

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1612.msg396991.html#msg396991

short answer: ENSO gonna oscillate, number go up

Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?

Erghh posted:

sounding like its entered solid bag holder territory then (or canary in the coalmine territory).

anyway I'm sure things can always get worse/dumber.

Something to keep in mind is that Florida doesn't have any kind of flood disclosure laws for sellers, and this is the kind of situation where there wasn't (initially) any flood damage to disclose anyway. It's like if a low spot on your lawn tends to fill with water in heavy rain; buyers would probably want to know that, but it's probably not something you have to disclose. Except in this case it's the parking lot just randomly filling with water on sunny days.

It's more of an issue now because the water is coming up into the units, flooding sidewalks, ruining green areas, and causing actual damage that you do need to disclose to buyers. The only upside is that these are small 2-3 story structures with less than ten units in each building, so it's not like the whole thing is going to collapse and kill everyone unless a sinkhole opens up.

kater
Nov 16, 2010

does an unsellable Florida condo still contribute property tax?

SniperWoreConverse
Mar 20, 2010



Gun Saliva
It'd be kinda badass if the sinkhole opened up and like manatees started living in the condos, that'd be cool but I'd be worried they could get scratched on broken glass or something

SixteenShells
Sep 30, 2021

kater posted:

does an unsellable Florida condo still contribute property tax?

That seems like it will be the final death blow, when the tax assessment starts taking into account inability to sell or get insurance for the property

Whole lotta people gonna be sitting on worthless property they paid millions of dollars for

Jizzny Princess
Aug 24, 2021

WHILE YOU WERE LEARNING TO SPELL YOUR NAME,
I WAS BEING TRAINED TO CONQUER GALAXIES
UwU
https://www.tiktok.com/embed/7346317248346262827

The delusion is strong.

I don't think that beach will last even 4 years.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Jizzny Princess posted:

https://www.tiktok.com/embed/7346317248346262827

The delusion is strong.

I don't think that beach will last even 4 years.

kinda hosed up that cnn is playing Willy nilly with your data btw. does the C stand for Communist or China?

kyojin
Jun 15, 2005

I MASHED THE KEYS AND LOOK WHAT I MADE

Paradoxish posted:

the whole thing is going to collapse and kill everyone

an actual frog
Mar 1, 2007


HEH, HEH, HEH!

Jizzny Princess posted:

https://www.tiktok.com/embed/7346317248346262827

The delusion is strong.

I don't think that beach will last even 4 years.
We just need the state other people to keep paying millions to rebuild our beach :hmmyes:

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

i'm not a climate change guy as the ocean swallows my house. what are we going to do, lose billions of dollars of real estate?

lmao

mags
May 30, 2008
Probation
Can't post for 14 hours!
fair weather, sunny skies, flowers in bloom. Anthropocene? more like the Nice Age

mags
May 30, 2008
Probation
Can't post for 14 hours!

Nice!

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mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

mags posted:

more like the Nice Age

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