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The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USCE 2024: There are so many wonderful porn stars out there

Staluigi: Jun 22, 2021

Neo Rasa posted:

The October 7th attack interrupted this impending attempt for Saudi Arabia and Israel to normalize relations. And while many seem like that's out of the question now Biden is still going for it.

Wouldn't say it's totally out of the question, because saudi arabia is a mercenary as it comes. Could give a poo poo about palestine, if there's profit offered, they'll probably just wait to see if things die down from pariah state poo poo

# ? Apr 2, 2024 16:42

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# ? Jun 7, 2024 14:32

Neo Rasa: Mar 8, 2007; Everyone should play DUKE games.

Main Paineframe posted:

Not particularly, no.

US government assistance toward Israel only really reached significant levels after Israel was already clearly a dominant power in the region. Prior to that, Israel's backing mostly came from Western Europe, while the US took a relatively neutral approach in hopes of wooing the Arab countries into NATO. Most of the money and armaments that made the IDF into a powerful modernized military came from France and Germany. On top of that, Israel's nuclear weapons program was practically given to them by the French, though Britain chipped in to provide uranium and heavy water via Norway as an intermediary.

The US didn't really swing over to the pro-Israel side until after the Six-Day War, by which point Israel was unquestionably a major military power (and nuclear power) in the Middle East already and perfectly capable of holding its own without direct support from major powers.

All of this is true, but "at this point in history" as DeliciousPatriotism said? Biden literally just greenlighted giving them another $18 billion in air power. A few days ago we authorized sending them 1,000+ MK84s.

That's in addition to aid we already give Israel which is contingent on X percentage of it being spent to purchase weapons from the US.

I see this said a lot that Israel's already this major force to be reckoned with on its own, but for a country with that status we seem to give them a poo poo ton of hardware and money constantly. But it doesn't really matter that we do that since Israel is so incredibly powerful and wealthy completely on its own. Sounds like we should stop providing them with any aid or weaponry then since they don't need it? Like I'm not sure what the point of your post is here.

# ? Apr 2, 2024 16:47

haveblue: Aug 15, 2005; Toilet Rascal

In internal USCE news: the Florida Supreme Court made two decisions yesterday that could have major repercussions for both sides. They allowed Florida's current abortion laws to stand, meaning that it is banned after six weeks with the three usual exceptions. But they also allowed a proposition to go onto the ballot that would undo that law and add abortion protection to the state constitution.

quote:

In its ruling Monday, the court�s justices wrote in a majority opinion, �Consistent with longstanding principles of judicial deference to legislative enactments, we conclude there is no basis under the Privacy Clause to invalidate� the 15-week statute.

They added that Planned Parenthood, the plaintiff, �cannot overcome the presumption of constitutionality and is unable to demonstrate beyond a reasonable doubt that the 15-week ban is unconstitutional.�

As a result, the justices concluded, the �six-week ban will take effect in thirty days.�

At the same time, their ruling on the proposed amendment will allow Florida voters to effectively decide whether to keep the six-week ban in effect.

quote:

Despite its ideological makeup, the conservative court signaled during opening arguments last month that it as likely to let the amendment appear.

And despite having doled out tough questions to the attorneys representing Floridians Protecting Freedom, the abortion rights group leading the ballot effort, the judges were even harsher in their commentary to attorneys for the state.

�It�s pretty obvious that this is an aggressive, comprehensive approach to dealing with this issue,� Chief Justice Carlos Mu�iz said at one point, shooting down an argument that the ballot language was confusing. �The people of Florida aren�t stupid. They can figure out what this says.�

Sucks for unexpectedly pregnant people from now to November, but possibly less sucky for them after, especially if the proposition drives Democrat turnout to the point that the state goes blue in the presidential election.

We now return you to the thread's real topic: getting probated for trying to discuss I/P

# ? Apr 2, 2024 16:48

koolkal: Oct 21, 2008; this thread maybe doesnt have room for 2 green xbox one avs

People will just vote yes on abortions, no on Biden.

# ? Apr 2, 2024 16:53

Nervous: Jan 25, 2005; Why, hello, my little slice of pecan pie.

haveblue posted:

We now return you to the thread's real topic: getting probated for trying to discuss I/P

I believe the probes are for discussing the moderation around I/P and going out of thread scope.

Also, we seem to have gotten a field of tugs, pulls, blows, and poles.

# ? Apr 2, 2024 16:56

OPAONI: Jul 23, 2021

koolkal posted:

People will just vote yes on abortions, no on Biden.

There are few things as absurdly frustrating as the irrational voter. I can't imagine what it's like to run into them every day as part of a campaign.

# ? Apr 2, 2024 16:57

Beast Pussy: Nov 30, 2006; You are dark inside

Has anyone suggested a two thread solution?

# ? Apr 2, 2024 17:08

Main Paineframe: Oct 27, 2010

mawarannahr posted:

Could you address the part where the OP said at this point in history and not up to the six day war?

I focused on the time period before the Six Day War because that was the time period when Israel actually needed military assistance to do things. Israel does not need American military assistance anymore. It certainly likes to have that assistance, but its position is nowhere near being precarious enough to actually need it.

If we're going to talk about whose "fault" the Israel/Palestine conflict is, it's obvious to point the finger at the countries that actually placed Israel in a militarily dominant position in the region in the first place, not at the countries who make it slightly cheaper for Israel to maintain that position. If you're going to pin the "fault" on anyone besides the Israelis themselves, the top culprits would be the countries the countries that put Israel in a position of military superiority over Palestinians, the countries that put Israel in a position of military superiority over its neighbors, and the countries that made Israel the first and only nuclear-armed state in the whole region.

At this point in history, Israel would be perfectly capable of oppressing Palestine while simultaneously keeping its neighbors in check all on its own, without any actual need for American assistance. The fault here, first and foremost, is theirs. And while America certainly bears moral responsibility for the decades we've spent backing Israel, it's not as if Israel would be unable or unwilling to carry out the current escalation without American support.

# ? Apr 2, 2024 17:12

Aztec Galactus: Sep 12, 2002

In addition to the abortion initiative, the Florida Supreme also approved a Recreational Marijuana ballot initiative. I'm not saying Florida is in play for democrats, but this is a double-whammy that should have an effect on turnout.

# ? Apr 2, 2024 17:15

mawarannahr: May 21, 2019

Main Paineframe posted:

I focused on the time period before the Six Day War because that was the time period when Israel actually needed military assistance to do things. Israel does not need American military assistance anymore. It certainly likes to have that assistance, but its position is nowhere near being precarious enough to actually need it.

If we're going to talk about whose "fault" the Israel/Palestine conflict is, it's obvious to point the finger at the countries that actually placed Israel in a militarily dominant position in the region in the first place, not at the countries who make it slightly cheaper for Israel to maintain that position. If you're going to pin the "fault" on anyone besides the Israelis themselves, the top culprits would be the countries the countries that put Israel in a position of military superiority over Palestinians, the countries that put Israel in a position of military superiority over its neighbors, and the countries that made Israel the first and only nuclear-armed state in the whole region.

At this point in history, Israel would be perfectly capable of oppressing Palestine while simultaneously keeping its neighbors in check all on its own, without any actual need for American assistance. The fault here, first and foremost, is theirs. And while America certainly bears moral responsibility for the decades we've spent backing Israel, it's not as if Israel would be unable or unwilling to carry out the current escalation without American support.

This isn't true at this point in history. According to Miller, yesterday, Israel cannot defend itself against its other adversaries without continued US support, especially because it has exhausted its supplies already. Would it have just exhausted its supplies and sat around with a thumb up its rear end in its dangerous neighborhood? Israel is reliant on the US -- that is the view of this administration and the ones before it in my lifetime. They are right.

Department Press Briefing � April 1, 2024 - United States Department of State

www.state.gov - Mon, 01 Apr 2024 posted:

QUESTION: Okay, two final things. This is about last � this is from last week about these authorizations of these bombs to Israel. They have been approved a long time ago by Congress, but it looks like the State Department has decided to do the transfers last week, the week before. Why was that decision taken, like, recently?

MR MILLER: So let me � I think it would be helpful to step back and put this in a little context, and the context is that we � the United States has a decades-long commitment to Israel�s security. Israel is surrounded by entities that are sworn to its destruction � not just Hamas but Iran and proxy groups that Iran sponsors, Hizballah among them, who have repeatedly talked about their desire for the destruction of Israel.

We believe Israel has every right to defend itself against those opponents, and we to that end have a longstanding security relationship with them where we provide them more than $3 billion annually in security assistance. Now, the way that that works � and I know you prefaced this in your question, but just for the benefit of everyone else � the way that that works is we provide them with $3.3 billion a year in security assistance. They don�t always draw all of that down in any given year, but they come to the United States, request certain defense articles. We make assessments about whether those are appropriate or not. We notify them to Congress in the regular course of business.

And oftentimes what happens � let�s say just as an example, this is a fictional example; let�s say they requested a hundred planes � we make a decision, we notify Congress. That doesn�t mean that they take a hundred planes tomorrow once that notification has been given and once the approval has been given. They draw those down over time, and sometimes it takes years to fulfill those requests.

And so those are the types of things that � I see you wanting to go. Bear with me. I know � I know this is long, and then you�ll have the opportunity for a follow-up. Those are the types of things that often take years to fulfill, and they were happening before October 7th and they have continued after October 7th.

So what these are about in many cases are about self-defense, but also deterrence and replenishment. And so we make these in the regular course of business, and what I can tell you about them is that we follow the same procedures with respect to everyone that we do for every other country in the world, which is that we notify Congress. And in fact, since October 7th we have gone above and beyond to notify Congress about these transfers. There is a statutory threshold where we are required to notify them of transfers. We have been regularly briefing the committees to let � to make them aware of every transfer that we are making.

QUESTION: So I�m going to have to combine my questions now that you�ve taken up so much time to answer. I understand �

MR MILLER: I would apologize, but I don�t think you�d believe it.

QUESTION: Oh no, I�m just joking. Of course take your time. I understand the fulfilling can take years, but are you basically saying that the authorization of the transfer coming in these recent weeks was a coincidence?

MR MILLER: So I�m not saying it�s a coincidence. Israel has been engaged in a military conflict, and of course when you are engaged in a military conflict you deplete your military stocks and you need to �

QUESTION: So there was a request in recent weeks �

MR MILLER: And you need to see those � I�m not going to �

QUESTION: � for the � for the additional fulfilled � for the fulfillment of these particular �

MR MILLER: So I�m not going to get into �

QUESTION: � weapons.

MR MILLER: As is always the case, I�m not going to get into the timings of exact requests from here.

QUESTION: Okay. My final �

MR MILLER: Let me just � I�ll be quick. That�s a � but this is a process that we keep Congress fully apprised of, our relevant committees.

QUESTION: Okay.

MR MILLER: But when you see these types of requests and when they get publicly reported � and you have to remember that Israel is in an armed conflict and is expending a great deal of defense materiel, and some of that needs to be replenished for Israel�s long-term security.

QUESTION: Right. And my final thing on this is, like, the Secretary and a lot of senior officials from this administration basically said far too many Palestinians have been killed. But when you go and make the � and we know that the administration�s policy hasn�t changed; it is not conditioning weapons to Israel. But when you go and make such an authorization of the transfer in recent weeks, even if the actual weapons transfer has been approved years ago, don�t you think that is going to damage the weight of your word, your credibility, and basically your sincerity in saying that far too many Palestinians have been killed?

MR MILLER: So I do not agree with that at all. We have been very clear that we want to see Israel do everything it can to minimize civilian casualties. We have made clear that they need to do every � that they need to operate at all times in full compliance with international humanitarian law. At the same time, we are committed to Israel�s right to self-defense, and this is a long-term commitment the United States has made, that it made before October 7th and that continues � it continues since October 7th.

So obviously the fight in Gaza is connected to Israel�s long-term security in very substantial ways. I got into some of that with response to Matt�s question. But Israel still faces � in addition to the security challenge posed with � in Gaza, it still faces an Iran that is hostile to Israel. It still faces Hizballah on its northern border that is hostile to Israel and says it is committed to the destruction of Israel. And so we are going to continue to support Israel�s ability to defend itself against those sworn enemies that want to see it end as a modern state, or a state at all.

Yeah.

QUESTION: Just to follow up, a 2,000-pound bomb is self-defensive, in your opinion?

MR MILLER: It is a � so they need to have the ability to defend themself against a very well-armed adversary � like I said, Iran; Hizballah, which has thousands and thousands of fighters and quite sophisticated materiel and quite sophisticated weaponry, as we�ve seen them deploy � excuse me � against Israel in the last few days. So yes, they do need the modern military equipment to defend themselves against those adversaries.

QUESTION: Yeah, but that was in Gaza, or beginning in Gaza.

MR MILLER: And we have made clear to them that when � that whatever weapon they use in Gaza, be it a bomb, be it a tank round, be it anything, that we expect them to use those weapons in full compliance with international humanitarian law, and we have said it � we � we have had very frank conversations with them about the fact that far too many civilians have died through their operations and that they need to do better in taking into account the need to minimize civilian harm. And we�ll continue to do that.

Israel has no security short-term or long-term without USA.

mawarannahr fucked around with this message at 17:22 on Apr 2, 2024

# ? Apr 2, 2024 17:20

RealityWarCriminal: Aug 10, 2016

Aztec Galactus posted:

In addition to the abortion initiative, the Florida Supreme also approved a Recreational Marijuana ballot initiative. I'm not saying Florida is in play for democrats, but this is a double-whammy that should have an effect on turnout.

Biden is anti-marijuana

# ? Apr 2, 2024 17:27

Edge & Christian: May 20, 2001; Earth-1145 is truly the best!
A world of singing, magic frogs,
high adventure, no shitposters

RealityWarCriminal posted:

Biden is anti-marijuana

Outside of the pardons and setting in motion the process for the DEA to reschedule marijuana and making public declarations including one in last month's SoTU about decriminalizing marijuana, he may well be anti-marijuana in his heart of hearts or something but his administration does not seem particularly anti-marijuana. Is this one of those "actually both major parties are anti-abortion, just don't look into the statement beyond that" situations?

# ? Apr 2, 2024 17:37

Aztec Galactus: Sep 12, 2002

RealityWarCriminal posted:

Biden is anti-marijuana

There are a lot of voters who were otherwise not going to vote, whether it be apathy toward Biden or some other reason, who will now be going out to vote because one of the issues that they care about is now something they can directly affect. It has nothing to do with Biden himself, but he is likely to benefit from it

# ? Apr 2, 2024 17:38

koolkal: Oct 21, 2008; this thread maybe doesnt have room for 2 green xbox one avs

Now I can vote yes on weed, yes on abortions, no on Biden.

# ? Apr 2, 2024 17:47

Combed Thunderclap: Jan 4, 2011

Biden may be anti-marijuana but his White House likes winning.

I've been expecting his DEA to reschedule it once we've entered The Goldfish Zone (voters' six month memory span before an election, i.e., May - November) for a while now and it feels like all the right things have been moved into place to make that happen as well.

# ? Apr 2, 2024 17:55

Kith: Sep 17, 2009; You never learn anything
by doing it right.

Beast Pussy posted:

Has anyone suggested a two thread solution?

:golfclap:

# ? Apr 2, 2024 17:58

Professor Beetus: Apr 12, 2007; They can fight us
But they'll never Beetus

I feel like firing all the white house staffers who admitted to marijuana use is a pretty big indicator that the Biden admin isn't particularly friendly to marijuana despite the extremely mild and gentle push to maybe start thinking about reclassification someday

This is a public declaration for Biden to prove me wrong and make me look like a fool, please do it Mr president

# ? Apr 2, 2024 18:03

Hieronymous Alloy: Jan 30, 2009; Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!; Morbid Hound

Combed Thunderclap posted:

Biden may be anti-marijuana but his White House likes winning.

I've been expecting his DEA to reschedule it once we've entered The Goldfish Zone (voters' six month memory span before an election, i.e., May - November) for a while now and it feels like all the right things have been moved into place to make that happen as well.

Yeah I'm expecting the same. Ditto student loan forgiveness.

# ? Apr 2, 2024 18:10

The Lord of Hats: Aug 22, 2010; Hello, yes! Is being very good day for posting, no?

For some irrelevant news, RFK Jr. is arguing that Biden's a bigger threat to democracy than Trump.

This appears to be him being Big Mad about his Instagram account getting suspended for spreading COVID misinfo, and the government communicating with social media companies about disinformation. He doesn't deny January 6, he just says this is worse.

Can the media stop covering this loser, please? Give it to a real candidate like Vermin Supreme.

# ? Apr 2, 2024 18:14

Fell Fire: Jan 30, 2012

Professor Beetus posted:

I feel like firing all the white house staffers who admitted to marijuana use is a pretty big indicator that the Biden admin isn't particularly friendly to marijuana despite the extremely mild and gentle push to maybe start thinking about reclassification someday

This is a public declaration for Biden to prove me wrong and make me look like a fool, please do it Mr president

Is this related to some March 19, 2021 events or is there something more recent?

An AP article from the time mentions five staffers getting fired and also states, "The marijuana policy has become less stringent under the Biden administration, allowing for up to 15 past uses in a year among White House staffers."

Marijuana is still against federal law, even the union reps have said that there isn't much they can do if someone tests positive, including for medical usage. This sounds like a situation where violating federal law but wanting to work at the White House is a security risk, regardless of how accepted or not usage is.

# ? Apr 2, 2024 18:15

Digamma-F-Wau: Mar 22, 2016; It is curious and wants to accept all kinds of challenges

RealityWarCriminal posted:

Biden is anti-marijuana

He may be, but the average voter who is pro-marijuana is more likely to vote for him than for Trump... then again Florida probably has a ton of the Joe Rogan breed of chud

# ? Apr 2, 2024 18:19

Nonsense: Jan 26, 2007

Is Schumer still honoring the blue slip, even after McConnell rammed through every judge with a pulse?

# ? Apr 2, 2024 18:25

selec: Sep 6, 2003

Unless Biden comes out and announces rescheduling it wearing big novelty pot leaf Mardi Gras beads with Snoop next to him at the podium, voters aren�t really gonna make that connection by and large. Weed legalization is mostly a state/local experience so he�s gotta figure out a way to drive policy at those levels�maybe look to get rid of weed enforcement money from law enforcement grants, to cut down on actual enforcement on the ground even if a state hasn�t legalized.

# ? Apr 2, 2024 18:29

PostNouveau: Sep 3, 2011; VY till I die; Grimey Drawer

Biden has only directed HHS to look at rescheduling marijuana, which led to HHS recommending it be Schedule III instead of Schedule I. The Biden administration hasn't acted on that recommendation. Him completely decriminalizing it is a fantasy; he's a drug warrior from way back in the day who wrote the 1994 crime bill. His VP is a loving former prosecutor.

Obviously this and student loan forgiveness would be huge winners for him and probably boost his chances of re-election by a ton, but he's not going to do either of those things.

PostNouveau fucked around with this message at 18:36 on Apr 2, 2024

# ? Apr 2, 2024 18:34

haveblue: Aug 15, 2005; Toilet Rascal

Federal legalization would make business in legal states a lot easier because it will eliminate a lot of weird hoops to jump through and wholly open it up to the financial industry

e: why would he not do another round of loan forgiveness after doing more than one already

# ? Apr 2, 2024 18:36

theCalamity: Oct 23, 2010; Cry Havoc and let slip the Hogs of War

https://twitter.com/prem_thakker/status/1775195325612847553?s=46

Has there ever been 100% approval for anything among a demographic like this before?

I hope that this would influence the decisions Biden makes regarding Israel but I�m not gonna hold my breath that Genocide Joe will suddenly reverse course due to polling. 25% is a pretty substantial number and his winning of the state was pretty small.

# ? Apr 2, 2024 18:38

Mooseontheloose: May 13, 2003

theCalamity posted:

https://twitter.com/prem_thakker/status/1775195325612847553?s=46

Has there ever been 100% approval for anything among a demographic like this before?

I hope that this would influence the decisions Biden makes regarding Israel but I�m not gonna hold my breath that Genocide Joe will suddenly reverse course due to polling. 25% is a pretty substantial number and his winning of the state was pretty small.

Any poll that has anyone agreeing 100% on an issue, is likely horseshit even if I agree with what they are saying.

# ? Apr 2, 2024 18:41

Edge & Christian: May 20, 2001; Earth-1145 is truly the best!
A world of singing, magic frogs,
high adventure, no shitposters

PostNouveau posted:

Biden has only directed HHS to look at rescheduling marijuana, which led to HHS recommending it be Schedule III instead of Schedule I. The Biden administration hasn't acted on that recommendation. Him completely decriminalizing it is a fantasy; he's a drug warrior from way back in the day who wrote the 1994 crime bill. His VP is a loving former prosecutor.

The HHS recommendation in February was to the DEA, who hasn't made any statements yet. It's not Biden/the White House "not acting" on it as of yet, and again, less than a month ago Biden (and/or his speechwriters) opted to throw a line into his State of the Union address about how no one should be jailed or have a criminal record for marijuana use or possession.

I do understand that thirty years ago he co-authored a very bad bill, but there is evidence from about thirty years more recently that his administration may have softened/reversed that stance. There is plenty of time for him to do a double-switch and adopt Duterte's drug policy in time for the general election, but I do not get the feeling that is where the administration is headed. At worst the Biden Administration seems legalization-curious.

# ? Apr 2, 2024 18:42

PostNouveau: Sep 3, 2011; VY till I die; Grimey Drawer

haveblue posted:

Federal legalization would make business in legal states a lot easier because it will eliminate a lot of weird hoops to jump through and wholly open it up to the financial industry

e: why would he not do another round of loan forgiveness after doing more than one already

He hasn't done any rounds of loan forgiveness. His team trots out press releases every month about the number of loans forgiven, but they're all from the George W. Bush-era Pay-as-You-Earn program, that is contractually obligated to forgive loans if payments are made for 25 years, or the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program (10 years). It's dumb for him to claim that's him forgiving loans. It's George W. Bush forgiving loans if it's anyone.

The mechanism they tried to use to forgive $10,000 for each borrower was so goddamn stupid (covid emergency) that the Supreme Court shot it down, and his administration hasn't lifted a finger to try another mechanism. Bernie Sanders had an executive order ready to go for complete forgiveness Day 1 of his administration. The loans are federalized and it is clearly in the power of the president to wipe them out.

Biden's not gonna do it. He doesn't want to. It's delusional to think he will based on what has transpired so far.

Edge & Christian posted:

The HHS recommendation in February was to the DEA, who hasn't made any statements yet. It's not Biden/the White House "not acting" on it as of yet, and again, less than a month ago Biden (and/or his speechwriters) opted to throw a line into his State of the Union address about how no one should be jailed or have a criminal record for marijuana use or possession.

I do understand that thirty years ago he co-authored a very bad bill, but there is evidence from about thirty years more recently that his administration may have softened/reversed that stance. There is plenty of time for him to do a double-switch and adopt Duterte's drug policy in time for the general election, but I do not get the feeling that is where the administration is headed. At worst the Biden Administration seems legalization-curious.

Who controls the DEA? Is this another independent branch of the government? Maybe I'm not up on my constitutional law, I thought it was Biden's DEA.

Legalization-curious? He's been in office for three years now. If it they cared about it, it would be done.

PostNouveau fucked around with this message at 18:51 on Apr 2, 2024

# ? Apr 2, 2024 18:47

Crows Turn Off: Jan 7, 2008

RealityWarCriminal posted:

Biden is anti-marijuana

Counterpoint: the Biden Administration is not anti-marijuana.

# ? Apr 2, 2024 18:49

Bird in a Blender: Nov 17, 2005; It's amazing what they can do with computers these days.

Mooseontheloose posted:

Any poll that has anyone agreeing 100% on an issue, is likely horseshit even if I agree with what they are saying.

It is young Democratic voters and covering Somewhat and Strongly Approve a ceasefire, so I wouldn't be surprised to have something like that be extremely high. Now of course you won't keep at 100% if you expanded the poll to more people, but staying above 95% would not surprise me.

# ? Apr 2, 2024 18:51

Koos Group: Mar 6, 2013

punishedkissinger posted:

It's not actually possible to create a SAD thread and the mods have refused to do so. PMs are completely ignored and there appears to be no effort to resolve this issue other than clamping down on the people upset about censoring discussion of an ongoing genocide.

I don't ignore PMs. I consider and respond to virtually all of them. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I am indeed making an effort to resolve this by getting a thread IK so I can open the thread back up with more confidence, and again welcome anyone with candidate suggestions to PM them to me.

# ? Apr 2, 2024 18:51

Push El Burrito: May 9, 2006; Soiled Meat

Counter-counterpoint: Biden is blitzed on sour diesel right now.

# ? Apr 2, 2024 18:53

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

Mooseontheloose posted:

Any poll that has anyone agreeing 100% on an issue, is likely horseshit even if I agree with what they are saying.

It's a huge red flag. Not a surprise it would be flogged uncritically in the Intercept though.

Absenteeism continues to plague US schools

The delta value is also consistent across socioeconomic and racial groups

The reasons postulated in the article are:

Parents less likely to send actually sick kids to school, more likely to keep kids home due to emotional distress,

quote:

Across the country, students are staying home when sick, not only with Covid-19, but also with more routine colds and viruses.

And more students are struggling with their mental health, one reason for increased absenteeism in Mason, Ohio, an affluent suburb of Cincinnati, said Tracey Carson, a district spokeswoman. Because many parents can work remotely, their children can also stay home.

For Ashley Cooper, 31, of San Marcos, Texas, the pandemic fractured her trust in an education system that she said left her daughter to learn online, with little support, and then expected her to perform on grade level upon her return. Her daughter, who fell behind in math, has struggled with anxiety ever since, she said.

�There have been days where she�s been absolutely in tears � �Can�t do it. Mom, I don�t want to go,�� said Ms. Cooper, who has worked with the nonprofit Communities in Schools to improve her children�s school attendance. But she added, �as a mom, I feel like it�s OK to have a mental health day, to say, �I hear you and I listen. You are important.��

Experts say missing school is both a symptom of pandemic-related challenges, and also a cause. Students who are behind academically may not want to attend, but being absent sets them further back. Anxious students may avoid school, but hiding out can fuel their anxiety.

Loss of trust or decreased belief in the necessity of good attendance:

quote:

Across the country, students are staying home when sick, not only with Covid-19, but also with more routine colds and viruses.

And more students are struggling with their mental health, one reason for increased absenteeism in Mason, Ohio, an affluent suburb of Cincinnati, said Tracey Carson, a district spokeswoman. Because many parents can work remotely, their children can also stay home.

For Ashley Cooper, 31, of San Marcos, Texas, the pandemic fractured her trust in an education system that she said left her daughter to learn online, with little support, and then expected her to perform on grade level upon her return. Her daughter, who fell behind in math, has struggled with anxiety ever since, she said.

�There have been days where she�s been absolutely in tears � �Can�t do it. Mom, I don�t want to go,�� said Ms. Cooper, who has worked with the nonprofit Communities in Schools to improve her children�s school attendance. But she added, �as a mom, I feel like it�s OK to have a mental health day, to say, �I hear you and I listen. You are important.��

Experts say missing school is both a symptom of pandemic-related challenges, and also a cause. Students who are behind academically may not want to attend, but being absent sets them further back. Anxious students may avoid school, but hiding out can fuel their anxiety.

(also, maybe increased virtual options mean that parents might think their kid is doing school work when they aren't)

Feedback loops:

quote:

Experts say missing school is both a symptom of pandemic-related challenges, and also a cause. Students who are behind academically may not want to attend, but being absent sets them further back. Anxious students may avoid school, but hiding out can fuel their anxiety.

And schools have also seen a rise in discipline problems since the pandemic, an issue intertwined with absenteeism.

Dr. Rosanbalm, the Duke psychologist, said both absenteeism and behavioral outbursts are examples of the human stress response, now playing out en masse in schools: fight (verbal or physical aggression) or flight (absenteeism).

The article doesn't propose a solution, because no one has found a way to reverse the trend.

IMO this is something that will fade out, I think people are still underestimating the lingering effects of the pandemic on our personal and public social lives. It may be that this cohort is just an anomaly and in 10 years when they've worked their way through the system we'll see something more like we expected pre-pandemic. But ~25% chronic absenteeism isn't sustainable, especially when schools are funded by average daily attendance.

e: also within in the article is a tool to search individual district attendance to see changes, but not if you live in certain states

# ? Apr 2, 2024 18:56

Xombie: May 22, 2004; Soul Thrashing
Black Sorcery

PostNouveau posted:

He hasn't done any rounds of loan forgiveness. His team trots out press releases every month about the number of loans forgiven, but they're all from the George W. Bush-era Pay-as-You-Earn program, that is contractually obligated to forgive loans if payments are made for 25 years, or the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program (10 years). It's dumb for him to claim that's him forgiving loans. It's George W. Bush forgiving loans if it's anyone.

This isn't true.

First off, PSLF is a Bush-era program but PAYE/REPAYE is an Obama-era program from 2012. But then Biden replaced PAYE/REPAYE with SAVE. As someone who was/is on all of these programs, even though I can thank Bush for having my loans erased next year, I'm paying half on SAVE compared to what I was paying on REPAYE pre-pandemic. REPAYE was already half of what I was paying under Bush-era payment programs. On top of all this, Biden's consolidation moratorium allowed me to move my Navient loans into my federal loan, so that they qualified for a better interest rate and lower payments without resetting the clock on my PSLF.

There's also the fact that, compared to an unnamed previous administration, Biden is actually forgiving loans under PSLF, so I can count on my years of chronically underpaid public service not being a waste. If Biden loses it's very much a crapshoot for me. DeVos lorded over a 99% denial rate for PSLF forgiveness.

Xombie fucked around with this message at 19:01 on Apr 2, 2024

# ? Apr 2, 2024 18:57

Kith: Sep 17, 2009; You never learn anything
by doing it right.

Koos Group posted:

I don't ignore PMs.

can confirm that koos has responded promptly and politely to all of my PMs, even ones discussing moderation i strongly disagreed with

# ? Apr 2, 2024 18:59

PostNouveau: Sep 3, 2011; VY till I die; Grimey Drawer

Xombie posted:

This isn't true.

First off, PSLF is a Bush-era program but PAYE/REPAYE is an Obama-era program from 2012. But then Biden replaced PAYE/REPAYE with SAVE. As someone who was/is on all of these programs, even though I can thank Bush for having my loans erased next year, I'm paying half on SAVE compared to what I was paying on REPAYE pre-pandemic. REPAYE was already half of what I was paying under Bush-era payment programs. On top of all this, Biden's consolidation moratorium allowed me to move my Navient loans into my federal loan, so that they qualified for a better interest rate and lower payments without resetting the clock on my PSLF.

There's also the fact that, compared to an unnamed previous administration, Biden is actually forgiving loans under PSLF, so I can count on my years of chronically underpaid public service not being a waste.

Has the big number at the top gone away? Because that's what loan forgiveness means to everyone who will vote on it if he does it.

I have not applied for SAVE because it's getting challenged in the court and I have no faith in them letting me back into PAYE when the psychos on the Supreme Court rule it unconstitutional.

# ? Apr 2, 2024 19:00

Xombie: May 22, 2004; Soul Thrashing
Black Sorcery

PostNouveau posted:

Has the big number at the top gone away? Because that's what loan forgiveness means to everyone who will vote on it if he does it.

My big number goes away if he wins and probably not if he loses.

quote:

I have not applied for SAVE because it's getting challenged in the court and I have no faith in them letting me back into PAYE when the psychos on the Supreme Court rule it unconstitutional.

If they struck down SAVE it would literally just revert back to REPAYE, which again, was an Obama-era law.

# ? Apr 2, 2024 19:09

Main Paineframe: Oct 27, 2010

theCalamity posted:

https://twitter.com/prem_thakker/status/1775195325612847553?s=46

Has there ever been 100% approval for anything among a demographic like this before?

I hope that this would influence the decisions Biden makes regarding Israel but I�m not gonna hold my breath that Genocide Joe will suddenly reverse course due to polling. 25% is a pretty substantial number and his winning of the state was pretty small.

It's not uncommon when dealing with extremely small slices of an extremely small sample size. This was a poll of just 322 people. Out of that 322 people, only 42 of them were younger than age 30.

That said, the question is "Do you support or oppose the US calling for an immediate and permanent Ceasefire in Gaza?". And given that the administration has been calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza for weeks, that's not necessarily a reflection of negative opinions toward the administration. Sure, the administration isn't asking for a permanent ceasefire, but the poll doesn't ask about support levels for non-permanent ceasefires. That's literally the only question the poll asks about what voters want done in Gaza. As usual when it comes to polling on the issue, the pollsters aren't asking for a comprehensive look on voters' positions, and their own perspective on the issue heavily influences what few questions they ask. Though I can't say I'm shocked that Poll Progressive Strategies is asking questions intended to produce a progressive framing.

That said, they do ask a very important question that very few pollsters bother to, though (unsurprisingly) The Intercept chose to leave this one out of their article:

Main Paineframe fucked around with this message at 19:15 on Apr 2, 2024

# ? Apr 2, 2024 19:13

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# ? Jun 7, 2024 14:32

PostNouveau: Sep 3, 2011; VY till I die; Grimey Drawer

Xombie posted:

If they struck down SAVE it would literally just revert back to REPAYE, which again, was an Obama-era law.

All I ever see on this is no one knows what will happen if it gets struck down. I mean, I'd apply for it today, and there may be some good reason too if they rule it's not allowed but everyone in it is grandfathered in.

But then again Biden is on the fast-track to losing this election so it could be a situation where the Trump Administration gets to decide what happens to borrowers in a now-struck-down SAVE plan and I start getting $1,000/month bills in my mail.

# ? Apr 2, 2024 19:18

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