(Thread IKs:
loquacius)
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CN CREW-VESSEL posted:Tournaments were also insanely political and the results seem to have been nudged in the right direction every now and then.
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# ? May 10, 2024 17:05 |
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# ? Jun 8, 2024 02:21 |
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqzJMdo7DDs this was basically takeshis castle but with euros and not as funny, but it ruled
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# ? May 10, 2024 17:07 |
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F_Shit_Fitzgerald posted:If they're crying crocodile tears this much over Eurovision, imagine the hysterical blubbering when Israeli Olympians are treated like pariahs this summer. probably wont be their worst olympics experience still
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# ? May 10, 2024 17:09 |
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Good Citizen posted:probably wont be their worst olympics experience still
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# ? May 10, 2024 17:09 |
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https://twitter.com/politico/status/1788913675652247915 yiiikes
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# ? May 10, 2024 17:10 |
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Good Citizen posted:probably wont be their worst olympics experience still lol
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# ? May 10, 2024 17:12 |
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Good Citizen posted:probably wont be their worst olympics experience still Lmfao
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# ? May 10, 2024 17:15 |
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Halloween Jack posted:Offer not available to trans women, terms and restrictions apply. Reminds me of sometime last year or the year before in the bad thread, when the succs were arguing in favor of banning trans women from sports and completely missing the point that if you allow them to be banned because of biology, then you are tacitly admitting that they are Not Women. You abandon the entire loving cornerstone of trans rights, but nooo, it would surely only apply to them competing in sports and would certainly not be brought up in any other context to justify discrimination, we're still allies Some Guy TT posted:it turns out that trump might not have actually brought those classified documents to mar a lago at all half of those boxes were sent by the general security administration under biden and the vast majority of the stuff in those boxes wasnt classified documents and basically every time anyone has conducted an audit of what was in which box everything is in a completely different location I would never have actually believed anyone was trying to frame Trump, but if that turns out to actually be the case, Jesus Christ, I can't even form words about how absurd that would be.
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# ? May 10, 2024 17:21 |
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Good Citizen posted:probably wont be their worst olympics experience still bro
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# ? May 10, 2024 17:21 |
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the_steve posted:Reminds me of sometime last year or the year before in the bad thread, when the succs were arguing in favor of banning trans women from sports and completely missing the point that if you allow them to be banned because of biology, then you are tacitly admitting that they are Not Women. You abandon the entire loving cornerstone of trans rights, but nooo, it would surely only apply to them competing in sports and would certainly not be brought up in any other context to justify discrimination, we're still allies It's a great example of how major party politics is completely hosed up: transphobia is a massive electoral loser for Republicans, but Republican politics is still heavily influenced by strategists who think it's a winning strategy, and Democratic strategists want to rein in trans rights because they think it's a losing issue. There's this whole class of people whose job is to interpret public opinion for the actual decisionmakers, and they're just charlatans.
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# ? May 10, 2024 17:25 |
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drake no : work from home drake yes : convention from home
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# ? May 10, 2024 17:27 |
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Good Citizen posted:probably wont be their worst olympics experience still
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# ? May 10, 2024 17:29 |
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Scarabrae posted:drake no : work from home
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# ? May 10, 2024 17:30 |
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It's hilarious how terrified the dems are of their voter base
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# ? May 10, 2024 17:37 |
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Halloween Jack posted:Liberals are in favour of a trans ban because a) they're transphobes and b) they're chasing an electability that isn't even real. consider that this is the system working as intended, and all of the tea leaf readers exist to block the true opinions of the public from reaching the ears of officials
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# ? May 10, 2024 17:37 |
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jesus loving christ is the author on the DNC payroll or something
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# ? May 10, 2024 17:38 |
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Scarabrae posted:drake no : work from home the story say it'd only be the nominations that are done remotely; chicago's hotels and dnc donors are counting on f2f time. a big part of national political conventions are donors throwing parties for the politicians that they own & operate, and the fact that this'll be the first in-person dem convention in 8 years makes it all the more important. but the nomination coming in remotely a few weeks before the actual convention makes sense bc of the OH deadline for getting biden on the ballot there. (He won't win OH but sherrod brown likely can't survive biden being left off the ballot.)
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# ? May 10, 2024 17:39 |
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Lmao One of my favorite DNC anecdotes is from the 2020 convention, they wanted to show a map with dots representing where everyone was calling in from. This was their way of disproving the idea that they're all a bunch of "coastal elites". The idea was scrapped because when they tested it all the dots were on the coasts.
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# ? May 10, 2024 17:42 |
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Uncle Wemus posted:It's hilarious how terrified the dems are of their voter base the dems trying to physically beat them into submission sure is something
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# ? May 10, 2024 17:43 |
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Uncle Wemus posted:It's hilarious how terrified the dems are of their voter base there's all sorts of quotes that allude to their saving democracy by preventing democracy. quote:“It’s an event that’s critical to the Democratic Party, so we’re all going to work together to make it a success,” Cook County President Toni Preckwinkle, a veteran of Chicago’s political wars, told me when I asked about the mayor and the governor. the story laments the loss of michael madigan, indicted party mob boss: quote:With the demise of longtime Illinois Democratic boss (and state house speaker) Michael Madigan, though, there’s no semblance of a political machine here. What’s left is Pritzker, a billionaire who’s won two terms and can bankroll the party, and a handful of public employee unions, most notably the teachers from which Johnson emerged.
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# ? May 10, 2024 17:43 |
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Al! posted:the dems trying to physically beat them into submission sure is something "You only got two picks and keep getting it wrong! "
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# ? May 10, 2024 17:44 |
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quote:There’s already a joke going around Democratic strategist circles that the main difference between 2024 and 1968 is that the Chicago mayor this year will be on the side of the protesters, not the cops. Jonathan Martin is seething with contempt for Johnson. He hates the guy and everything he stands for politically. The headline material about the hybrid convention only lasts for a few paragraphs before the piece turns into a laundry list of all the ways the author thinks Johnson sucks.
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# ? May 10, 2024 17:46 |
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VoicesCanBe posted:Lmao lol
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# ? May 10, 2024 17:50 |
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jesus christ lol
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# ? May 10, 2024 17:50 |
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Halloween Jack posted:Liberals are in favour of a trans ban because a) they're transphobes and b) they're chasing an electability that isn't even real. Call them whatever: popularists, third way dems, blue dogs, etc There's an entire industry of these "strategic" hacks whose job it is to claim that centrist ideology is public opinion, and that "going too far" will lose elections This is completely divorced from actual public opinion, because it doesn't matter. These people are paid to provide an intellectual framework that prevents progress. If they so happen to believe the BS they spout, all the better (as far as the party is concerned)
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# ? May 10, 2024 17:54 |
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SgtMongoose posted:TBH that sounds like major "polls aren't real" cope. I'm pretty sure the first question in a likely voter screen is generally "Do you intend to vote?" sure, and even ignoring how traditionally people answer "yes" to that question even if they don't end up voting, demographic re-weighting means that they take the people who did pass the likely voter screen and multiply that number by the expected demographics of the 2024 election. besides, we're getting pitiful number of polls, lets look just at Michigan. 538 lists 13 Michigan polls in April, seems like a lot, right? We have 6 Biden/Trump polls, 5 Biden/Trump/3rd, 1 Biden/RFK, and 1 Trump/RFK. Looking at just the head to head polls for simplicity, we have 2 likely voter polls and 4 registered voter polls: LV 4/8-11 - Trump +6 RV 4/8-15 - Biden +2 RV 4/11-16 - Trump +3 RV 4/20-21 - Trump +15 LV 4/19-25 - Biden +2 RV 4/25-29 - Trump +4 The 2 likely voter polls are 5 points apart, right in the middle of the spread for the registered voter polls. The LV 4/19-25 - Biden +2 poll was YouGov, which reweights their likely voters based on several factors: quote:The CBS News/YouGov survey o 1,287 registered voters in Michigan was conducted betweenApril 19-25, 2024.This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the U.S.Census American Community Survey, and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, as wellas 2020 Presidential vote. “Likely voters” – respondents’ relative probabilities o voting – weredetermined using a regression model that incorporates current, sel-reported intentions to vote,along with individual-level and aggregate data about voters, such as demographics and votehistory. Respondents were selected to be representative o registered voters in Michigan. O the1,287 respondents, 971 were selected rom YouGov’s online panel, 172 were selected rom PureSpectrum’s online panel, and 35 were selected rom Dynata’s online panel. The weights rangerom 0.1 to 3.6, with a mean o 1 and a standard deviation o 0.5. The LV 4/8-11 - Trump +6 was by Marketing Research Group, and claims to be a likely voter poll, but sure looks like a registered voter poll to me: quote:The survey of 600 likely Michigan voters was conducted by live phone interview from April 8 to April 11, 2024, with a +1.3 DEM So we've really got only 1 likely voter poll in Michigan in the last month and it re-weights responses to fit historical voting patterns, which if those do not hold, means the poll will fail to be predictive. tldr: polls have been getting worse, we've been doing fewer of them, and it all adds up to poo poo data on the state level, the only level that matters.
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# ? May 10, 2024 18:03 |
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Why is Israel in Eurovision anyway? They aren't in Europe. Do Morocco and Egypt get to be in Eurovision?
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# ? May 10, 2024 18:10 |
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Uncle Wemus posted:It's hilarious how terrified the dems are of their voter base In a functional democracy that would be a good thingz that party would change their behavior. But lol lmao
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# ? May 10, 2024 18:13 |
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KomradeX posted:In a functional democracy that would be a good thingz that party would change their behavior. But lol lmao Peasants don't know what's best for their betters. That's why American democracy has removed all political influence from them.
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# ? May 10, 2024 18:17 |
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https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1788941745905905674 I don't feel like doing math but I feel like that amount of defection is enough to tip the scales, even if most of that 30% switching to Trump and RFK Jr. "come home" in November
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# ? May 10, 2024 18:17 |
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that seems like a fine/cool thing that definitely doesn't play directly into concerns about Biden's fundamental capabilities and competence while further undermining his core (if blatantly false) appeal of being a 'normal' president
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# ? May 10, 2024 18:19 |
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Scarabrae posted:drake no : work from home drake fan, huh
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# ? May 10, 2024 18:20 |
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PostNouveau posted:Why is Israel in Eurovision anyway? They aren't in Europe. Do Morocco and Egypt get to be in Eurovision?
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# ? May 10, 2024 18:22 |
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I mean that’s what they did in 2020 except this time they don’t have COVID as an excuse.
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# ? May 10, 2024 18:23 |
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https://x.com/thehill/status/1788978834437541981
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# ? May 10, 2024 18:34 |
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Good news for Biden's Climate plans: more expensive EVs, Solar Panels and Batteries!quote:https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/may/10/biden-white-house-to-expand-tariffs-on-chinese-trade
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# ? May 10, 2024 18:41 |
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https://twitter.com/RealJamesWoods/status/1788613709998457187
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# ? May 10, 2024 18:43 |
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VoicesCanBe posted:https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1788941745905905674 I'm pretty sure this is the poll data they're reporting on: [url][/url] but I can't find a table where they break it down to the level the clip is showing; they must have had access to the source data. I can't find a table that breaks down by who they voted for in 2020. However, the top-line split is basically 30/70 approve/disapprove, so that drop is potentially like a full quarter of the votes Biden got in 2020. I think that's likely the outer bound though, the real drop is probably lower.
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# ? May 10, 2024 18:58 |
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replace all audio of biden with him saying his brother was eaten by cannibals
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# ? May 10, 2024 18:59 |
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# ? Jun 8, 2024 02:21 |
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joepinetree posted:Portugal was far worse than Spain in terms of squandering the wealth that they pillaged. Spain took far more silver out though. Like by a magnitude of 10.
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# ? May 10, 2024 18:59 |