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fatherboxx)
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Ukrainian sources confirm that one more village, Borysivka, was captured. Something is going on. https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2024/05/10/7455183/
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May 10, 2024 17:20
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The problem isn't the border villages per se, though of course it's a problem for the people actually living there. The problem is that this front could get Russia within artillery, rocket, and glide bomb range of Kharkiv. Russia believes--possibly correctly--that leveling cities furthers it's political objectives. They don't need to push that far from the border to bring devastation to that city.
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May 10, 2024 18:02
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I don't think the fate of specific villages is all that relevant for assessing the strategic or operational situation, it's like measuring progress in Stalingrad or Verdun by individual foxholes taken; a good flexible defencive line isn't going to contest every inch of ground, but will try to blunt an offencive while pulling back in order to consolidate and launch a counter offencive at the now overstretched and exhausted advancing forces. It remains to be seen if Russia has the reserves to keep this offencive and axis of advance going if the oppurtunity presents itself and also still of course open if Ukraine has the mobile reserves to counter attack; we don't know and probably won't know for a long while.
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May 10, 2024 19:07
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when you are at a manpower disadvantage trading territory to preserve your soldiers usually makes sense.
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May 10, 2024 19:28
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WarpedLichen posted:I feel like after Bakhmut, I just assume there's always going to be some people who refuse to leave their homes no matter happens. This is true of almost every disaster that happens anywhere be it natural or man made. Not everyone can get up and leave no matter how dire the situation is. Often times in warzones the people that will stay in whatever area is the center of fighting are elderly folks who physically can't leave. Or have nowhere to go. It's sad as hell but it's pretty common.
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May 10, 2024 19:38
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Zelensky fired the head of his bodyguard unit after the uncovered assassination plot. The article says that while it's believed that he had no connection the plot, he was seen as a personal friend of the two conspirators. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4n1j0l8111o quote:Zelensky fires head of bodyguard after failed plot
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May 10, 2024 19:57
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WarpedLichen posted:I feel like after Bakhmut, I just assume there's always going to be some people who refuse to leave their homes no matter happens. It was true even for Chornobyl disaster, there are still people living in exclusion zone - about 200 samosely, mostly elderly people who either never left or decided to come back.
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May 10, 2024 20:10
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Libluini posted:Putin has decided, two time's the charm: The problem with the a concerted Russian push around Kharkiv is that it will force Ukraine to put assets there that are needed elsewhere. It also means Russia believes it has the reserves to open another front, if it is indeed a offensive operation and not just some raid/recon by force.
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May 10, 2024 20:16
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Dick Ripple posted:The problem with the a concerted Russian push around Kharkiv is that it will force Ukraine to put assets there that are needed elsewhere. It also means Russia believes it has the reserves to open another front, if it is indeed a offensive operation and not just some raid/recon by force. Well, spreading themselves out to force Ukraine to spread out isn't necessarily a good thing for them either. It depends on how much they learned the lessons of the start of the war to properly support and sustain this axis without starving other fronts.
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May 10, 2024 21:11
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They are not going to have much trouble right next to Belgorod, thanks to the Jake Sullivans of the world.
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May 10, 2024 21:36
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Dick Ripple posted:The problem with the a concerted Russian push around Kharkiv is that it will force Ukraine to put assets there that are needed elsewhere. It also means Russia believes it has the reserves to open another front, if it is indeed a offensive operation and not just some raid/recon by force. Counterpoint: geography allows Ukrainian troops to rotate more quickly from one front to another than Russian troops can, so reserves can be placed between the two fronts and intercept where needed. So far, Russia opening multiple fronts hasn't given them any advantage compared to massing troops at one front and grinding away. The Russians are in this whole mess of their own making precisely because they stretched their forces too thinly at the start of the war and couldn't manage 3 fronts at once with the men and materiel they had.
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May 10, 2024 21:50
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Szarrukin posted:It was true even for Chornobyl disaster, there are still people living in exclusion zone - about 200 samosely, mostly elderly people who either never left or decided to come back. There was a good documentary about that https://thebabushkasofchernobyl.com
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May 10, 2024 22:10
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Im curious if they identified the formations attacking from Russia
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May 11, 2024 00:16
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Deltasquid posted:Counterpoint: geography allows Ukrainian troops to rotate more quickly from one front to another than Russian troops can, so reserves can be placed between the two fronts and intercept where needed. So far, Russia opening multiple fronts hasn't given them any advantage compared to massing troops at one front and grinding away. The Russians are in this whole mess of their own making precisely because they stretched their forces too thinly at the start of the war and couldn't manage 3 fronts at once with the men and materiel they had. It has been reported that Russia has been recruiting between 20-30 thousand men per month in 2023 and continuing into 2024. So enough to cover their losses. We know Ukraine has severe manpower shortages, but have been expecting an attack in the Kharkiv region, so we can assume they have pre-positioned reserves. The question/problem is Russia actually stretching their forces for this offensive (weakening other parts of the front), or have they actually built up that additional reserve corps they have been talking about for so long? I hope it is the former and just Putin/Russian command pushing hard everywhere they can before the western aid comes into full effect and knowing that Ukraine does not have the ability to launch any meaningful counter-offensive this year.
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May 11, 2024 06:33
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Ukraine warns northern front has ‘significantly worsened’ as Russia claims capture of several villages https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/12/europe/russia-kharkiv-region-offensive-ukraine-intl/index.html CNN — Ukraine warned the situation in the northern Kharkiv region has “significantly worsened” after Russia claimed to have captured several villages in a surprise cross-border offensive. Russia on Sunday said it had captured nine villages in total over the weekend, as Ukraine said fighting was ongoing and that it was repelling attacks. Hundreds of civilians have been evacuated from near the frontlines. Russia began its surprise cross-border attack on Friday, making two assaults inside northern Ukraine, in what President Volodymyr Zelensky called a “new wave of counteroffensive actions” by Russia. The precise goal is unclear but Moscow may be trying to create a buffer zone to reduce Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory or try to wear down and divert the attention of Kyiv’s already thinly stretched forces. In a statement Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed a new military grouping called Sever (North) had “liberated” several villages, wording that reflects Russia’s denial of Ukrainian statehood. Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s army chief, said Sunday that “defensive operations” were ongoing. “This week, the situation in Kharkiv Oblast has significantly worsened. Currently, there are ongoing battles in the border areas along the state border with the Russian Federation,” he wrote on Telegram. Residents from Vovchansk and nearby villages wait for buses amid an evacuation to Kharkiv on Friday. Ukraine’s Oleh Syniehubov, Head of the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration, disputed that the five villages in the Kharkiv Region had been captured. “Heavy fighting continues in Strilecha, Pylyna, Borysivka, in the area of Oliynykove and Ohirtseve. The fighting continues in the area of those settlements that were actually in the ‘grey zone’ […] There is no threat of a ground operation for Kharkiv. The Defense Forces are doing everything possible to hold their positions. All government agencies are working on the ground,” Syniehubov said. The grey zone represents territory currently contested rather than under full Russian or Ukrainian control. At least three people died as a result of Russian strikes on Kharkiv region overnight Saturday into Sunday, according to the head of the region’s military administration. One woman living in Kharkiv, Anna Ivanova, described the situation as “scary.” Seaking to Reuters on Sunday, she said: “Of course it is scary, we keep on monitoring the situation, following the news but we remain home and are not planning to go anywhere. All depends on what happens.” Another Kharkiv resident, Olena Pidhirna, said: “Despite all those attacks, air raid alarms, we live normal lives, everyone keeps going out, playing, going to school, enjoying themselves, working. Life goes on, as normal.” Russia’s recent efforts have largely been focused in the east, where it has taken advantage of Ukrainian manpower and weaponry shortages to make small advances. Its forces attacked Kharkiv region after the full-scale invasion began in 2022 but were forced out in a Ukrainian counteroffensive later that year. In a separate development, a fire briefly broke out at the Volgograd oil refinery, the largest oil refinery in southern Russia, after a Ukrainian drone attack overnight into Sunday, according to the region’s governor. “On the night of May 12, air defense and electronic warfare forces repelled a UAV attack on the territory of the Volgograd region,” Andrey Bocharov said in a post on Telegram. “As a result of the consequences of a UAV crash with subsequent detonation, a fire broke out at the Volgograd Refinery site,” he said. The fire has been extinguished and there were no casualties, he said.
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May 12, 2024 18:07
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https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1789723287565562087 Shoigu out, new Minister of Defense is a longtime bureaucrat and not ex-bodyguard (and Prigozhin's bff) Dumin as some expected fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 19:29 on May 12, 2024 |
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May 12, 2024 19:26
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Yeah. He's gone. https://x.com/JulianWaller/status/1789723708426158144
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May 12, 2024 19:29
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Preemptively RIP Shoigu.
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May 12, 2024 19:37
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Paladinus posted:Preemptively RIP Shoigu. Too soon! Old dog got promotion to heading Security Council, replacing old KGB man Nikolai Patrushev (mostly ceremonial/advisory position near Putin)
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May 12, 2024 19:39
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Shoigu dead in an unfortunate accident, investigation suggests he fell from a window and was impaled on multiple interesting pieces of wood from his own collection
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May 12, 2024 19:39
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fatherboxx posted:Too soon! Old dog got promotion to heading Security Council, replacing old KGB man Nikolai Patrushev (mostly ceremonial/advisory position near Putin) Okay, then eagerly waiting for his drunk telegram posting. And preemptively RIP Patrushev.
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May 12, 2024 19:44
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There had been speculation about Shoigu's position back in April when his deputy Timur Ivanov was fired over suspected bribery and now that Putin has officially started a new term it would be a logical point to change some cabinet members. I mean, it would be in any normal democracy, obviously in Russia nothing forces Putin to change his cabinet unless he really, really feels so. Belousov seems like an odd choice, all I know is he's been an acting prime minister while Mishustin was ill and is speculated as one of Putin's possible heirs. But you'd think that during war time you'd name someone more accomplished, one that the forces trust, instead of some gray apparatchik. Sergei Lavrov is also super old, it makes you wonder if Putin is going to let him go next. I faintly recall that Lavrov has even personally wished for retirement but Pol Put has decided otherwise...
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May 12, 2024 19:45
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Nenonen posted:But you'd think that during war time you'd name someone more accomplished, one that the forces trust, instead of some gray apparatchik. Dwesa fucked around with this message at 20:04 on May 12, 2024 |
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May 12, 2024 19:58
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Dwesa posted:Make the minister of defence someone competent and popular in military and risk a coup? No, it has to some nobody like Shoigu. From Putin's POV Shoigu had the benefit that he's Tuvan from his father's side. Russians are famously so nationalistic that it would have been impossible for some minority national to become the new dictator 
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May 12, 2024 20:07
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The last non Russian dictator there that I can think of put a lot of people to death
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May 12, 2024 20:23
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Scratch Monkey posted:The last non Russian dictator there that I can think of put a lot of people to death That is a very strong statement about Mikhail Gorbachev there
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May 12, 2024 20:26
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https://x.com/rybar_force/status/1789925179310678160 4th day in a row of sustained pressure. It is unlikely to be a show of force or a test of Ukranian lines at this point. Those conscription programs better get moving soon.
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May 13, 2024 16:58
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I hate when accounts like that use words like "enemy" because it's ambiguous as all hell.
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May 13, 2024 18:02
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MikeC posted:https://x.com/rybar_force/status/1789925179310678160 The guy behind the Reporting from Ukraine youtube channel believes it is meant to be a pinning operation, to make it more difficult to rotate reserves towards the Donbass front since they’re engaged near Kharkiv. So it is unlikely to let up the pressure soon (but also unlikely to break through, since the assembled forces seem to be about 54k soldiers strong, which he believes is insufficient to capture Kharkiv considering its size and Ukrainian fortifications in the area.
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May 13, 2024 18:04
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KillHour posted:I hate when accounts like that use words like "enemy" because it's ambiguous as all hell. Rybar is literally on Russian MOD payroll* so there is no ambiguity with him *Maybe not for long if the new guy applies the neoliberal way of cutting costs and sheds the bloated PR apparatus that Shoigu loved
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May 13, 2024 18:05
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The goal of that operation is not to capture Kharkiv: it is to make it untenable by virtue of placing it under a high volume of land based indirect fires.
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May 13, 2024 19:30
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Ynglaur posted:The goal of that operation is not to capture Kharkiv: it is to make it untenable by virtue of placing it under a high volume of land based indirect fires. How's that supposed to work differently from any other city? The Soviets didn't abandon Stalingrad when it too was under a volume of indirect fires?
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May 13, 2024 19:53
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Raenir Salazar posted:How's that supposed to work differently from any other city? The Soviets didn't abandon Stalingrad when it too was under a volume of indirect fires? There used to be 1.4 million civilians in Kharkiv.
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May 13, 2024 19:59
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Raenir Salazar posted:How's that supposed to work differently from any other city? The Soviets didn't abandon Stalingrad when it too was under a volume of indirect fires? Stalingrad held, but it's not like anyone in it was making a positive contribution to the war effort during the siege
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May 13, 2024 20:00
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The only way to protect Ukrainian territory is to take Russian territory and establish a perimeter. The west needs to finally understand this.
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May 13, 2024 20:07
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DarklyDreaming posted:Stalingrad held, but it's not like anyone in it was making a positive contribution to the war effort during the siege The OP said "untenable" which implied to me the military situation being able to defend the city would be untenable, which I don't see how that follows. If the Russians just park outside the city and shell it periodically, like the unlikely scenario Seoul might be under in the minds of some military commentors; like if the balloon went up tomorrow the artillery NK has wouldn't make defending Seoul politically, economically, or militarily untenable even in the worst case scenarios. The fact is a significant amount of Ukraine has already been heavily damaged by Russian aggression and I don't see what economic or political or military purpose it would serve to abandon Kharkiv. If anything its the opposite, at a minimum a major urban city is a difficult nut to crack against a determined dug in opponent and unlike the situation earlier in the war the Russians don't seem to have the superiority required to encircle the city.
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May 13, 2024 20:26
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I mean hasn't this been the modus operandi of the Russians so far - see Bakhmut/Avvdivka - shell defensive positions to rubble to force defenders back until you can place all the supply routes under fire control and then force a retreat? Not sure if I'm missing something here, though the line between "capture" and "shell into rubble" doesn't seem clear to me.
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May 13, 2024 20:57
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WarpedLichen posted:I mean hasn't this been the modus operandi of the Russians so far - see Bakhmut/Avvdivka - shell defensive positions to rubble to force defenders back until you can place all the supply routes under fire control and then force a retreat? Not sure if I'm missing something here, though the line between "capture" and "shell into rubble" doesn't seem clear to me. It's also a costly means of advance; it isn't gauranteed to push them back, its just the most successful tactic they happen to have available to them. Kharkiv thusly isn't less tenable than by definition any other part of the front that doesn't have a river or natural obstacle in the way.
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May 13, 2024 21:43
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fatherboxx posted:Rybar is literally on Russian MOD payroll* so there is no ambiguity with him Maybe, but I don't want to have to track the alliances of every rando on Twitter to understand what they're saying.
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May 13, 2024 22:40
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| # ? Jun 8, 2024 13:04 |
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Nothing concrete yet, but there are reports that the Ukrainian commander for the Kharkiv region has been replaced.
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May 13, 2024 23:02
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