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Sometimes a claim is not testable. That doesn’t mean it’s necessarily wrong, but that there’s no way to investigate whether it’s wrong or right.
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Apr 27, 2024 14:36
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ashpanash posted:No one wants to be shown how wrong they are more than scientists. Whoa, I'm absolutely not interested in being proven wrong when it:s clearly Professor Wernstrom who's out to lunch.
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Apr 27, 2024 16:56
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Precambrian Video Games posted:Whoa, I'm absolutely not interested in being proven wrong when it:s clearly Professor Wernstrom who's out to lunch. Wernstrom posted:Who cares? I have tenure.
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Apr 27, 2024 17:26
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Ratios and Tendency posted:The conspiracy theory in question is coming from senior intelligence agents within the US government. For anyone who hasn't caught up with the actual UFO thread: It turned out that the secret project to research UFOs was instigated and run by the skinwalkter ranch people, as some kind of freelance attempt to This was somewhat frustrated when it turned out that weren't actually any UFOs to research The subsequent whistle blowing is heavily linked to skinwalker ranch people, and it appears that the secret UFO research program they are all up in arms about, is in fact their own stupid and pointless research program. So the entire thing has just been a massive game of The Man Who Was Thursday, meets The Men Who Stare At Goats, plus a few profoundly gullible useful idiots. But of course all of the above is just part of the conspiracy, so feel free to disregard. Full disclosure is just around the corner. Keep on reach for that rainbow.
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Apr 27, 2024 17:48
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Got a link the the relevant bits of the thread or whatever article got posted in it?
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Apr 27, 2024 18:05
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Bug Squash posted:For anyone who hasn't caught up with the actual UFO thread: This reminds me of the Missing 411 guy, who will go to any bigfoot, ufo, or forteana conference that pays but will never say outright that he thinks it is or isn’t bigfoot, the grays, the smiley face killers, or hollow Earth kidnapping people out in the woods and then later returning their bodies staged to look like they died of exposure.
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Apr 27, 2024 18:32
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Ratios and Tendency posted:The conspiracy theory in question is coming from senior intelligence agents within the US government. Climate change conspiracies is alleged by senior members of the scientific community too. The strong consensus on man made climate change could blind scientists to alternative explanations and scientists that have built careers on certain theories might be embarrassed if proven wrong. It’s the same argument, right? Except they do spend time debunking alternative theories - you’ll find no shortage of publications dealing with Richard Lindzen or Roy Spencer. White individual scientists might be too arrogant to investigate an unlikely claim there’s thousands of others who will if there’s the possibility they could make their names by overturning an established theory. It hinges on there actually being a testable claim and data though. If a scientist claims to have travelled to the bottom of the ocean and have communicated with an intelligent octopi civilization living in an amazing technological city but also there’s no recordings or data of any kind and no I can’t show you where it is then what are we supposed to do? It COULD be true! It’s POSSIBLE! The fact that you haven’t found the octopi city proves that you are not looking for it! Why won’t you investigate it?? What are the octopi paying you?
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Apr 27, 2024 18:41
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https://www.newscientist.com/article/2430601-dozens-of-stars-show-signs-of-hosting-advanced-alien-civilisations/quote:Dozens of stars show signs of hosting advanced alien civilisations Huge, if true.
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May 13, 2024 14:41
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Going to need more proof than that I think, all that study has shown is that there's ~60 stars that appear to be obscured by something(s) that are radiating in the infra-red
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May 13, 2024 14:48
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Also I think it would be more likely to be ALIENS!!! if it's just one or two stars showing something weird happening. When you have 60, I assume nowhere near each other, showing the same odd behaviour seems far more likely to just be some new weird astrophysics quirk that occasionally happens, we haven't quite figured out yet.
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May 13, 2024 14:53
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dr_rat posted:Also I think it would be more likely to be ALIENS!!! if it's just one or two stars showing something weird happening. When you have 60, I assume nowhere near each other, showing the same odd behaviour seems far more likely to just be some new weird astrophysics quirk that occasionally happens, we haven't quite figured out yet.
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May 13, 2024 14:56
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dr_rat posted:Also I think it would be more likely to be ALIENS!!! if it's just one or two stars showing something weird happening. When you have 60, I assume nowhere near each other, showing the same odd behaviour seems far more likely to just be some new weird astrophysics quirk that occasionally happens, we haven't quite figured out yet. I know, I know, it's probably some dust or something mundane like that, but it's fun to imagine. 
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May 13, 2024 15:05
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DrSunshine posted:I know, I know, it's probably some dust or something mundane like that, but it's fun to imagine. Hey, there's always a chance it turns out to be an empire of space dust aliens! No one can prove that's not a thing!!! Would totally annoy SETI. We're trying to find aliens here, why the gently caress does all this drat space dust always keep getting in the way???
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May 13, 2024 15:09
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New and interesting stuff is always cool, even if the press immediately jumps to "ALIENS!!"
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May 13, 2024 15:09
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Just don't pick up the phone
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May 13, 2024 15:49
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hating the headlines on these stories but it’s all cool science regardless. it’ll be interesting to see how clustered any of these detections are
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May 13, 2024 18:30
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I allow some fanciful theorizing channels on my YouTube, and one of them had a decent summary of the survey of infrared inconsistencies. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VkEGvmfd8dI So not exactly a groundbreaking finding, but absolutely worth further follow up with additional observations. Finding a Dyson swarm within a few hundred light years is probably a bad thing overall though lol.
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May 13, 2024 20:38
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:I allow some fanciful theorizing channels on my YouTube, and one of them had a decent summary of the survey of infrared inconsistencies. eh if such a thing actually existed, any civilization would already be aware of at least some degree of life on this planet and likely check it out
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May 13, 2024 21:10
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mediaphage posted:eh if such a thing actually existed, any civilization would already be aware of at least some degree of life on this planet and likely check it out That's what the other thread has been saying this whole time.
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May 13, 2024 21:25
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It would be pretty wild if every civilization inevitably develops this one specific Dyson swarm thing in a way such that it’s a permanent feature of their system. Or if every civilization just happens to synch up developmentally for some reason we’ll never be able to figure out through observation.
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May 14, 2024 01:28
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well we tend to assume that the progression of technology continues without end as long as civilization does but maybe you hit real points of diminishing returns at some level so if you survive you inevitably end up looking superficially similar
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May 14, 2024 02:05
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:I allow some fanciful theorizing channels on my YouTube, and one of them had a decent summary of the survey of infrared inconsistencies. I like that channel because of his voice and I like sci-fi concepts and all that, but bear in mind that this is the same channel that had a sincere interview with someone about Skinwalker Ranch a little while ago, when deciding how much salt you're gonna need to take it with. Edit: Event Horizon is the channel I'm on about but it's the same dude talking about the same stuff. Cactus fucked around with this message at 12:32 on May 17, 2024 |
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May 17, 2024 12:29
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Cactus posted:I like that channel because of his voice and I like sci-fi concepts and all that, but bear in mind that this is the same channel that had a sincere interview with someone about Skinwalker Ranch a little while ago, when deciding how much salt you're gonna need to take it with. Yeah he's a science fiction author and self admitted futurist, so a heavy grain of salt should be applied to everything. As far as science communicators go he's fine.
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May 17, 2024 13:23
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Neat little video about the proposed Habitable Worlds Observatory https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2JIkAPcdnU I guess I'd better stay alive for another 20 years or so
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May 17, 2024 13:28
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More Alien Chat (because what else are we going to talk about) but not UFO chat: https://gizmodo.com/drake-equation-update-fermi-paradox-intelligent-life-1851503974 quote:Updated Formula on Alien Intelligence Suggests We Really Are Alone in the Galaxy I can't say I disagree with the idea of adding in continents and oceans as a term in the Drake Equation, but part of me wonders if it might be introducing a level of "biospheric bias" into the mixture that might skew our expectations. After all, the Drake Equation was only ever meant as a tool for thinking about the existence of alien civilizations, the Fermi Paradox, the Weak Anthropic Principle etc., not as an objective metric for measuring our observations and focusing our SETI efforts around.
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May 31, 2024 20:53
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I'm just going off the cuff here, and no disrespect for the publication by these esteemed folks, but I remember some talk many decades ago about how a large moon would be necessary for the evolution of life, due to similar arguments about continents and tides and so forth. If we're just adjusting the variables in the Drake equation, we're not really saying anything that definitive.
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May 31, 2024 21:05
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Rappaport posted:I'm just going off the cuff here, and no disrespect for the publication by these esteemed folks, but I remember some talk many decades ago about how a large moon would be necessary for the evolution of life, due to similar arguments about continents and tides and so forth. If we're just adjusting the variables in the Drake equation, we're not really saying anything that definitive. Right, that's my gist too. At some point you just have to sit back and say that what this boils down to, essentially, is "What are the chances of finding another Earth?" To which, obviously, the answer is zero, we're the only Earth out there that happened to give rise to sentient apes.
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May 31, 2024 21:07
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DrSunshine posted:Right, that's my gist too. At some point you just have to sit back and say that what this boils down to, essentially, is "What are the chances of finding another Earth?" What? I don't think the evidence suggests that it's precisely zero (especially for something "Earth-like" that might support "some kind of life").
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May 31, 2024 21:12
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DrSunshine posted:Right, that's my gist too. At some point you just have to sit back and say that what this boils down to, essentially, is "What are the chances of finding another Earth?" yeah i think there's value in looking at the possibility of things similar to our solar system but perhaps less value at looking for earth clones vs earth analogues like imo it's worth looking for quiescent stars with habitable zone ocean planets of the earth to super earth range. maybe with a midbelt jupiter to help clear out some of the leftover system detritus but i'm not sure how necessary that is everything else imo is just someone saying "well i think my idea is right" but without much interesting evidence to support the theory. it's a bunch of if statements cobbled together
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May 31, 2024 21:13
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It definitely is quite far into the bias side based on our sample size of 1 for evidence of life. Do plate tectonics, which need oceans and continents, help life develop? Yes it seems so. But I think assuming life requires that factor at this point is needlessly limiting. Maybe life develops slower without it, but lots of planets have had lots more time in their star's habitable zone than us, so long term that might not be an issue at all. And of course, we currently have effectively zero statistics on how common continents and plate tectonics are. If we go with the stats we do have, 25% of terrestrial planets we can determine this for have tectonics, which of course is a silly low sample size to apply across the universe. But it might be that if liquid water exists on a planet's surface, it could strongly influences the creation of plates. Also who knows when we'll have the equipment to analyze this for exoplanets. We can barely detect atmospheres of Earth-sized exoplanets for at least another decade or 2. I'm guessing to see exocontinents we'll need something 2x bigger than JWST. So we're decades too early to even dream we can draw any conclusive assumptions for this influence on the Drake equation. I think we'll see evidence of life in an exo-atmosphere long before we can detect continents.
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May 31, 2024 21:18
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I can appreciate what the authors are trying to do there, but the problem remains that we have a sample size of one. Alright, we know Mars failed to produce life, maybe since its magnetic dynamo died far too early, and Venus had run-away climate change. As Orthanc6 says, we don't really have any data to work with, so it's all working from Earth's example and extrapolating. Chemically, life could begin on a rather varied number of planets.
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May 31, 2024 21:32
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Rappaport posted:I can appreciate what the authors are trying to do there, but the problem remains that we have a sample size of one. Alright, we know Mars failed to produce life, maybe since its magnetic dynamo died far too early, and Venus had run-away climate change. As Orthanc6 says, we don't really have any data to work with, so it's all working from Earth's example and extrapolating. Chemically, life could begin on a rather varied number of planets. we don’t even know if mars and venus failed to produce life! i’m honestly not very bullish on it but it’s still possible i’m also unconvinced that plate tectonics helped biotic emergence versus coincided with it. i mean it could be a requirement! but we don’t know and imo talking about the number of civs based on presence of tectonics is mostly just mental masturbation
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May 31, 2024 21:54
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mediaphage posted:we don’t even know if mars and venus failed to produce life! i’m honestly not very bullish on it but it’s still possible That's true, and I'm open to evidence either way. I just meant they're not quite as Earth-analogue as we'd like, for the purposes of life-sustaining worlds.
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May 31, 2024 21:58
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Rappaport posted:That's true, and I'm open to evidence either way. I just meant they're not quite as Earth-analogue as we'd like, for the purposes of life-sustaining worlds. well, they aren’t now, you’re right. any life-sustaining world includes a time coordinate in its habitability
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May 31, 2024 22:06
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It’s frustrating because we won’t have any good ideas about how to really look for civilizations until we find one, and without a good method all we’re doing is flailing around with guesses that could be totally wrong. And we might never find that first one.
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Jun 1, 2024 00:00
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Speaking of just playing around with the Drake equation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tw0aqmnmaw e: also I think this thread would appreciate all of her videos, she doesn't have that many as she is a new channel. Dameius fucked around with this message at 01:08 on Jun 1, 2024 |
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Jun 1, 2024 00:18
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I still think that the main reason we haven't found intelligent aliens yet is that space is simply too unimaginably huge. Even if we knew exactly where to look for a world with intelligent life on it, the distances involved are so great that it's not like our technology could detect any of their cities or whatever. Any transmissions they've broadcasted may have degraded into unintelligible noise by the time they reach us. Unless we had far more advanced telescopes and instruments, how would we even know what we're looking at?
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Jun 1, 2024 00:52
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Raenir Salazar posted:What? I don't think the evidence suggests that it's precisely zero (especially for something "Earth-like" that might support "some kind of life"). What I meant was "What are the chances that there's a duplicate Earth, another world that had so many characteristics similar to ours that they followed the same exact geological and biological history that we did up to, and including the emergence of radio-transmitting civilizations?" My point was that if you add too many constraints and assumptions into the Drake Equation, it converges onto that premise.
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Jun 1, 2024 03:27
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There's ~20 billion G-class (ie the Sun) stars just in the Milky Way.
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Jun 1, 2024 03:50
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https://physicsworld.com/a/are-dusty-quasars-masquerading-as-dyson-sphere-candidates/ "Tongtian Ren and Michael Garrett of the Jodrell Bank Centre for Astrophysics at the University of Manchester, and Andrew Siemion of Breakthrough Listen and the University of Oxford, have proposed that the candidates have another explanation: background contamination from distant, dusty quasars. They found strong radio sources very close in the sky to three of the candidates. Each radio source is attributed to an active supermassive black hole at the centre of a very distant, dusty quasar known as a “Hot DOG”, or hot dust-obscured galaxy. Because they are dusty, they radiate infrared and are large enough in the sky to extend behind the Dyson swarm candidates."
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Jun 1, 2024 07:33
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