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Thug Lessons
Dec 14, 2006


I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.

litany of gulps posted:

What is your number one most highly recommended book?

Art of the Deal

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Thug Lessons
Dec 14, 2006


I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.

Volkerball posted:

Calling first responders and civilian victims terrorists based on nothing other than a desire to undermine any sort of support the US could give them isn't "moderate skepticism." It's lies and slander to support an agenda.

This is a bald-face lie though. I've never claimed the White Helmets are terrorists. I have criticized their leadership, but for completely different reasons. All you do is make poo poo up.

Thug Lessons
Dec 14, 2006


I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.

I Love Annie May posted:

I hope that fuckers like Woozy, Thug Lessons and thatfatfag get a nice delivery of Sarin courtesy of the Russian air force, while the world looks on with indifference and snidely suggests that their deaths are all part of a convoluted false flag operation in order to encourage regime change in their countries by the US.

Reasonable, and funny too. I especially like the part where you call that guy a fag lol.

Retarded Goatee
Feb 6, 2010
I spent :10bux: so that means I can be a cheapskate and post about posting instead of having some wit or spending any more on comedy avs for people. Which I'm also incapable of. Comedy.
nice streak man

Godlessdonut
Sep 13, 2005

Libluini posted:

We supported the FSA a lot back in 2011 when they were just a bunch of Syrian army deserters, but that old FSA has been dead for a long while now. 6 years of civil war will do that sometimes.

Yeah and that's where Al Saqr's supposed "lust for Kurdish death" originates. He feels that back then when there really was a moderate opposition, the Kurds were far more interested in asserting control over their own territory instead of fighting the regime. And over time the moderates were killed, run off, or forced to join the Islamists out of necessity (since those Islamists got the most funding from gulf states). So now it's pretty much just The Kurds, the Regime forces, and various flavors of Islamists. The Kurds have their own agenda that doesn't involve toppling Assad so right now the two groups vying for control of Syria are both pretty well disliked.

Like, I wouldn't mind seeing Assad dying a painful death for all he's done, but I also don't want Nusra running the country. It's a really lovely choice.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Thug Lessons posted:

This is a bald-face lie though. I've never claimed the White Helmets are terrorists. I have criticized their leadership, but for completely different reasons. All you do is make poo poo up.

Oh no, you never claimed they were terrorists. Just that their reports are all al qaeda propaganda and deliberate misinformation. Rat gently caress.

Dreylad
Jun 19, 2001

I Love Annie May posted:

I hope that fuckers like Woozy, Thug Lessons and thatfatfag get a nice delivery of Sarin courtesy of the Russian air force, while the world looks on with indifference and snidely suggests that their deaths are all part of a convoluted false flag operation in order to encourage regime change in their countries by the US.

hmm, no.

Maybe if we're at the point where people suggest using sarin gas on people they have online disagreements with then someone should sarin bomb this thread.

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

gently caress what a dumpster fire of a thread.



CONTENT:

quote:

"At least 224 civilians, including 38 children and 28 women, have been killed in air strikes by the global coalition on Raqa since the SDF entered it," said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/afp/2017/07/syria-conflict-raqa-civilians-toll.html



More commentary on the situation in eastern Syria, where the US seems to be consolidating against Iran.

quote:

The United States' shooting down of a Syrian fighter jet on June 18 was regarded as an indicator of elevated US military activism in Syria in support of its partners. In fact, it was a new peak of direct confrontation between the United States and the Syrian government that had started weeks earlier, when American forces declared it a "red line" if pro-Assad forces were to approach the southeastern al-Tanf region, which hosts a base of the US-led coalition.

Reacting to the shooting down of the Syrian aircraft, Russia drew its own red line, with the Defense Ministry declaring that “any airborne objects found west of the Euphrates River” would be considered targets.

However, this is not the whole picture, as eastern Syria has become the focal point for Iran, too. The very fact that Iran on June 18 chose Deir ez-Zor as the target of its first missile strike against Islamic State (IS) positions signaled the significance of the region in Iran’s strategic calculations.

Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/07/iran-russia-us-eastern-syria-zones-of-influence.html#ixzz4m3ucs2CU
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/07/iran-russia-us-eastern-syria-zones-of-influence.html

Gobbeldygook
May 13, 2009
Hates Native American people and tries to justify their genocides.

Put this racist on ignore immediately!
The Saudi embassy's Twitter is a public example of how they're probably lobbying the US in private: hammer Qatar exclusively on financing terrorism.
https://mobile.twitter.com/SaudiEmbassyUSA/status/882968897556811777
https://mobile.twitter.com/SaudiEmbassyUSA/status/882257642642694145

Thug Lessons
Dec 14, 2006


I lust in my heart for as many dead refugees as possible.

Volkerball posted:

Oh no, you never claimed they were terrorists. Just that their reports are all al qaeda propaganda and deliberate misinformation. Rat gently caress.

You just said I claimed they were terrorists, now you're admitting I didn't but I claimed some other insane thing. It's not very hard for people to figure out what's going on here

Cease to Hope
Dec 12, 2011

Thug Lessons posted:

You just said I claimed they were terrorists, now you're admitting I didn't but I claimed some other insane thing. It's not very hard for people to figure out what's going on here

yeah, everyone should know by now that thug lessons actually thinks they're a CIA catspaw to agitate for a US invasion of Syria, just like everything and everyone else in Syria (except for the Kurds apparently)

HorrificExistence
Jun 25, 2017

by Athanatos
.

HorrificExistence fucked around with this message at 17:54 on Jul 6, 2017

HorrificExistence
Jun 25, 2017

by Athanatos
wrong thread

HorrificExistence fucked around with this message at 17:55 on Jul 6, 2017

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

Gobbeldygook posted:

The Saudi embassy's Twitter is a public example of how they're probably lobbying the US in private: hammer Qatar exclusively on financing terrorism.
https://mobile.twitter.com/SaudiEmbassyUSA/status/882968897556811777
https://mobile.twitter.com/SaudiEmbassyUSA/status/882257642642694145

Imagine if an astroid hit earth and it was shaped as a thousand mile across ironicat and it obliterated the whole country of Saudi Arabia.

FourLeaf
Dec 2, 2011
New Neocon Mantra: Iran on Verge of Collapse: http://lobelog.com/new-neocon-mantra-iran-on-verge-of-collapse/#morehouse21

quote:

Iran hawks suddenly have a new mantra: the Islamic Republic is the Soviet Union in the late 1980s, and the Trump administration should work to hasten the regime’s impending collapse.

It’s not clear why this comparison has surfaced so abruptly. Its proponents don’t cite any tangible or concrete evidence that the regime in Tehran is somehow on its last legs. But I’m guessing that months of internal policy debate on Iran has finally reached the top echelons in the policy-making chaos that is the White House these days. And the hawks, encouraged by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s rather offhand statement late last month that Washington favors “peaceful” regime change in Iran, appear to be trying to influence the internal debate by arguing that this is Trump’s opportunity to be Ronald Reagan. Indeed, this comparison is so ahistorical, so ungrounded in anything observable, that it can only be aimed at one person, someone notorious for a lack of curiosity and historical perspective, and a strong attraction to “fake news” that magnifies his ego and sense of destiny.

...

Again, I’m not sure that this Iran=USSR-at-death’s-door meme is aimed so much at the public, or even the foreign-policy elite, as it is toward the fever swamps of a White House run by the likes of Steve Bannon or Stephen Miller or Cohen-Watnick. But here’s why a little more research into the new equation really got my attention.

And Also Lieberman

Dubowitz’s article was not the first recent reference. The most direct and most recent reference was offered by none other than former Sen. Joseph Lieberman, who serves on FDD’s three-man “Leadership Council,” in a speech before none other than the annual conference of the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MeK) and its cult leader, Maryam Rajavi, outside Paris July 1. Seemingly anticipating Takeyh (plus the Rajavi reference), Lieberman declared:

"Some things have changed inside Iran, and that’s at the level of the people. You can never suppress a people, you can never enslave a people forever. The people of Iran inside Iran have shown the courage to rise up… To just talk about that, to just talk about that, to hold Madame Rajavi’s picture up in public places, is a sign of the unrest of the people and the growing confidence of the people that change is near. The same is true of the remarkable public disagreements between the various leaders of the country…It is time for America and hopefully some of our allies in Europe to give whatever support we can to those who are fighting for freedom within Iran."

He then went on, “Long before the Berlin Wall collapsed, long before the Soviet Union fell, the United States was supporting resistance movements within the former Soviet Union”—an apparent reference, albeit not an entirely clear one, to the Reagan Doctrine and its purported role in provoking the Communist collapse.

And, in a passage that no doubt expressed what at least Dubowitz and his allies think but can’t say publicly at this point:

"The Arab nations are energized under the leadership of King Salman and Crown Prince [Mohammed] bin Salman. [Saudi Prince (and former intelligence chief) Turki Al Faisal Al Saudi addressed the “Free Iran Gathering” just before Lieberman.]They’re more active diplomatically and militarily as part of a resistance against the regime in Iran than we’ve ever seen before. And of course for a long time the state of Israel, because its very existence is threatened by the regime in Iran, has wanted to help change that regime. So you have coming together now a mighty coalition of forces: America, the Arab world, and Israel joining with the Resistance, and that should give us hope that we can make that [regime] change."

Putting aside the question of just how popular Madame Rajavi is in Iran for a second, there are a number of truly remarkable things about Lieberman’s speech. How much will it help “the resistance” in Iran to be seen as supported by the Saudis and the “Arab nations?” And how will it help to boast about Israel’s assistance when most Iranians already appear to believe that the Islamic State is a creation of the Saudis and/or Israel? Has the MeK become an IRGC counter-intelligence operation? It’s very clear indeed that the group is lobbying heavily—and spending lavishly—to become the administration’s chosen instrument for achieving regime change. But advertising Saudi and Israeli support for the enterprise will likely make that goal more elusive. The MeK’s reputation in Iran was bad enough, but this is really over the top.

Lieberman no doubt received ample compensation for saying what he said. Other former prominent US officials, including John Bolton, Rudy Giuliani, and Gen. Jack Keane—all of whom probably have closer ties than Lieberman to the White House – also spoke at the MeK event, which, incidentally, makes me think that the White House is indeed seriously considering supporting the group as at least one part of its Iran policy. I suspect we’ll find out soon enough.

What do you think?

Agnosticnixie
Jan 6, 2015

Bip Roberts posted:

Imagine if an astroid hit earth and it was shaped as a thousand mile across ironicat and it obliterated the whole country of Saudi Arabia.

You only really need to get Riyad.

quote:

What do you think?

NYT and WaPo are definitely gearing up for the next act of the Forever War, but "Iran is next" was the mantra already since the McCain campaign.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

FourLeaf posted:

New Neocon Mantra: Iran on Verge of Collapse: http://lobelog.com/new-neocon-mantra-iran-on-verge-of-collapse/#morehouse21


What do you think?



Yeah, the Iranian economy if anything has largely recovered in the last 2 years (current economic growth is 15%, the highest in the world (also probably not sustainable)). Once the sanctions were lifted they started selling as much as oil as they could to Europe, and production has largely recovered. The last election had pretty high participation as well.

The Soviets collapsed because there desperately trying to keep their entire system together with high oil prices, once prices dropped in 85/86 they had nowhere to turn. In contrast, the Iranians had to sell at deep discount even when oil prices are high, and they are getting better returns now since they can sell at market prices.

Honestly, it seems like a bunch of wishful thinking thrown together.

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

FourLeaf posted:

New Neocon Mantra: Iran on Verge of Collapse: http://lobelog.com/new-neocon-mantra-iran-on-verge-of-collapse/#morehouse21


What do you think?

Everybody and their dog is realizing that the war against IS is basically over at this point, and now's the perfect chance to ramp poo poo up against other foreign enemies, be it Assad or Iran or Russia.

Iran is not on the verge of collapse, sorry. Iran survived the war in the 80s, isolation, threats of more war, sactions and constant propaganda.

Now many of the sanctions have been lifted. They're starting to ink trade deals with major world powers. Their foreign policy is mostly going well for them-- their ally Assad is relatively secure, no immediate threats are coming from Iraq, and the Gulf states are divided and inept. A relatively liberal president was just re-elected with a strong mandate, suggesting Iran's new (relative) openness will continue.

Shits not all honey and roses; the Iranian economy needs to grow in a way that helps the average person, not just the IRGC and their companies. The stifling political climate never helps. Hardliners are ever lurking, utterly distrusting outsiders and intent on arming.

On the overall Iran is doing fairly well. Compared to the chaos in rest of the region, Iran is positively beaming with optimism.

Willie Tomg
Feb 2, 2006

Agnosticnixie posted:

NYT and WaPo are definitely gearing up for the next act of the Forever War, but "Iran is next" was the mantra already since the McCain campaign.

The only reason it didn't go through in the Bush administration was because Iraq refused to settle down, and by 2006 between the midterm sweep and the al-Askari mosque bombing it was clear two military occupations were enough to be going on with.

Darkman Fanpage
Jul 4, 2012

FourLeaf posted:

New Neocon Mantra: Iran on Verge of Collapse: http://lobelog.com/new-neocon-mantra-iran-on-verge-of-collapse/#morehouse21


What do you think?

ANY DAY NOW

Human Grand Prix
Jan 24, 2013

by FactsAreUseless

FourLeaf posted:

What do you think?

The Islamic regime could collapse but it will not stop Iran from asserting itself. Be very careful what you wish for.

Human Grand Prix
Jan 24, 2013

by FactsAreUseless
I think a nationalist, secular Iran (to use a hypothetical example) would likely pursue the same policies as now.

Scaramouche
Mar 26, 2001

SPACE FACE! SPACE FACE!

If anything Iran might be positioned to be one of the better off countries in the entire region. Relatively stable, mostly functioning government apparatus, good demographics. If they could dump the shah, basij, and the revolutionary guard they'd be even more of a powerhouse than they are. Gonna get turbo hosed by climate change though.

Human Grand Prix
Jan 24, 2013

by FactsAreUseless
The Shah was dumped 38 years ago.

Scaramouche
Mar 26, 2001

SPACE FACE! SPACE FACE!

Gah brainfart meant the ayatollah

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Scaramouche posted:

If anything Iran might be positioned to be one of the better off countries in the entire region. Relatively stable, mostly functioning government apparatus, good demographics. If they could dump the shah, basij, and the revolutionary guard they'd be even more of a powerhouse than they are. Gonna get turbo hosed by climate change though.

Yeah, also the people are probably the most liberal in the entire middle east.

Brother Friendship
Jul 12, 2013

Honestly, mods should be much more LIBERAL with their issuance of mod challenges. Argue your position in good faith, retract your point or eat a ban within X hours. It happened with Smoke Somethin in C-Spam and, even though he dodged away from his original point, at least he didn't just join a thread to poo poo it up, throw insults and then retreat when challenged.

Because honestly letting one line poo poo posters run wild makes this thread unreadable, which is the exact point of the poo poo posts. It's only worth following for essays and articles and the info dumps from people who follow news on Twitter, virtually all discussion is skippable at this point.

Scaramouche posted:

If anything Iran might be positioned to be one of the better off countries in the entire region. Relatively stable, mostly functioning government apparatus, good demographics. If they could dump the shah, basij, and the revolutionary guard they'd be even more of a powerhouse than they are. Gonna get turbo hosed by climate change though.

Obama's pivot towards friendly relations with Iran was a much needed step towards stabilizing the region. I feel that after his term we've hit an effective 'reset' with the Iranians that can make a relationship with them much more likely in the future even if I also feel he bungled the SCW and the nuclear deal. GOP is always game for a good ground war, though, so let's see if we can't run this poo poo into the ground. As climate change kicks in the old imperialist games aren't going to work anymore so unless there's a framework where the nations and ethnicities of the ME can work together I don't know what awaits them.

JK, I do, it's called the Dark Ages

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

FourLeaf posted:

New Neocon Mantra: Iran on Verge of Collapse: http://lobelog.com/new-neocon-mantra-iran-on-verge-of-collapse/#morehouse21


What do you think?

None of this is new. Dubowitz has said similar things before, and the MEK always draws a bunch of has been politicians at its annual rally. Howard Dean went last year. Iran certainly isn't invulnerable to internal dissent, after all, Assad was seen as cosmopolitan and a big step forward from Hafez inside Syria not so long ago. So I can see the argument that a large popular movement is inevitable. But these things are extremely hard to predict. On the one hand, voter participation was very high, and Iranians in general do seem to be very committed towards not becoming Syria. On the other hand, you have Rouhani being chased by a mob, and people self-immolating in protest of the elections. So it's hard to tell what will happen. People like Dubowitz always try to see the worst, but I don't think there's much there. Also worth mentioning that the recent dump didn't just reveal more about US involvement in the coup, but it exposed a lot more about how involved Kashani (Khomeini's ideological predecessor), and the clerical establishment were in it, which was very entertaining.

Brother Friendship
Jul 12, 2013

https://twitter.com/iraqi_day/status/882998523079380992

ISIS is broken in Mosul.

Brother Friendship
Jul 12, 2013

http://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/syria/04072017

quote:

"Conducting targeted strikes on two small portions of the wall allowed Coalition and partner forces to breach the Old City at a locations of their choosing, denied ISIS the ability to use pre-positioned mines, IED and VBIEDs, protected SDF and civilian lives, and preserved the integrity of the greatest portion of the wall," reads a US Central Command Statement released on Tuesday morning.

The 2,500 meter wall that surrounds the Old City was constructed between 771 and 775 CE. CENTCOM says the action “will help preserve the remainder.” It is located in the southeastern section of the city and is home to the Tower of Raqqa.

The Old City Wall was essentially an inner shield that guarded the heart of ISIS territory in the city. If it's been pierced then it will allow the SDF to apply additional pressure against ISIS's limited resources, perhaps even breaking through into unprepared or at least less prepared positions. Just like with why Al-Bab was a nightmare and Taqba was a relative 'calm' affair ISIS is only as powerful as its preparations. If the Old City becomes contested and captured it would cripple ISIS in Raqqa.

Edit:

The Old City Wall is shaped like a horseshoe and runs along the west end al-Sinaa. This map shows a rough idea where the breaches might be. The market area just south of it has been seized within the past few days as well. There hasn't been too much variance otherwise from what I've followed.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DEDRkRoUAAQFLR0.jpg:large

Brother Friendship fucked around with this message at 23:52 on Jul 6, 2017

Ikasuhito
Sep 29, 2013

Haram as Fuck.

If nothing else it could make the final push a less bloody affair. It may force IS to make their likely final stand in a less defensible area of the city. Which means less death overall.

CherryCola
Apr 15, 2002

'ahtaj alshifa
One of my favorite things is to hop on periscope and see who is broadcasting in Syria and Iraq. Highlights tonight we're a Kurd in the Afrin pocket with a huge Kurdistan flag in the background and a young med student who just moved back to Mosul after living in Erbil for a while. He was totally chill and was just like "oh yeah everything is completely safe now."

It's amazing to get that live, human look at what is going on with normal people in the actual city.

Agnosticnixie
Jan 6, 2015

Human Grand Prix posted:

I think a nationalist, secular Iran (to use a hypothetical example) would likely pursue the same policies as now.

Pretty much; I'm pretty sure western media would still insist a secular, nationalist Iran is the Islamist republic in disguise even if it deigned to acknowledge the change.

almighty
Mar 9, 2011

CherryCola posted:

On the topic of the Middle East:

Here's a thing about Turkey possibly building a base in Idlib

https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/881457923729362946

What's the point where the Regime goes "oh hell no" with Turkey?

It is safe to say that such a point will never be reached. Turkey's sole concern and interest at the moment is preventing, or failing that containing a de facto PKK run enclave spanning through it's borders in the Southeast. As far as Ankara is concerned, Damascus gaining control of as much as border territory possible is a win for Turkey.

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

almighty posted:

It is safe to say that such a point will never be reached. Turkey's sole concern and interest at the moment is preventing, or failing that containing a de facto PKK run enclave spanning through it's borders in the Southeast. As far as Ankara is concerned, Damascus gaining control of as much as border territory possible is a win for Turkey.

There's been a lot of talk about the US and Russia reaching a grand bargain lately, and about Russia not giving a poo poo about Assad ever regaining control over the entire country. If Russia letting Turkey into Idlib means they have to send fewer of their own troops to patrol safe zones forever, it could happen.

WhiskeyWhiskers
Oct 14, 2013


"هذا ليس عادلاً."
"هذا ليس عادلاً على الإطلاق."
"كان هناك وقت الآن."
(السياق الخفي: للقراءة)
Would Russia and the US even bother bringing Turkey into a grand bargain?

fishmech
Jul 16, 2006

by VideoGames
Salad Prong

Thug Lessons posted:

Breaking My Lai and Abu Ghraib isn't good enough for you?

Ah, the "marched with MLK" defense for a new market.

Human Grand Prix posted:

I think a nationalist, secular Iran (to use a hypothetical example) would likely pursue the same policies as now.

Yeah probably. Well, much the same at least.

Xae
Jan 19, 2005

WhiskeyWhiskers posted:

Would Russia and the US even bother bringing Turkey into a grand bargain?

They're a regional power and they share a border with Syria.

Yes.

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Volkerball posted:

None of this is new. Dubowitz has said similar things before, and the MEK always draws a bunch of has been politicians at its annual rally. Howard Dean went last year. Iran certainly isn't invulnerable to internal dissent, after all, Assad was seen as cosmopolitan and a big step forward from Hafez inside Syria not so long ago. So I can see the argument that a large popular movement is inevitable. But these things are extremely hard to predict. On the one hand, voter participation was very high, and Iranians in general do seem to be very committed towards not becoming Syria. On the other hand, you have Rouhani being chased by a mob, and people self-immolating in protest of the elections. So it's hard to tell what will happen. People like Dubowitz always try to see the worst, but I don't think there's much there. Also worth mentioning that the recent dump didn't just reveal more about US involvement in the coup, but it exposed a lot more about how involved Kashani (Khomeini's ideological predecessor), and the clerical establishment were in it, which was very entertaining.

same. I doubt iran will implode any time soon and if trump and friends invaded, it would just validate the hardliners and would cause the Iranian people to rally around the flag, just like iran iraq war did. my opinion was what obama was doing, slowly opening iran up and having warmer relations with them since their is a chance of better goverment in the future, unlike Saudi Arabia.

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Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

Xae posted:

They're a regional power and they share a border with Syria.

Yes.

Plus they're already occupying part of the country and threatening to expand it on a routine basis.

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