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Isn’t real estate the best major investment hedge against inflation, aside from say physical gold? But real estate makes new money via income if it has tenants. How would this impact REITs vs other equities? Pondering effects off federal budget / tax cuts and other things. Who in the political world stands to personally gain from inflation?
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Feb 9, 2018 05:26
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Let's say I already have money in a targeted retirement date fund, regular old 401k, and general stock index fund. But I still had money to put somewhere. This money could be untouched for 20 years (or moved around as needed every few years). Would you buy a bonds fund? REIT fund? Just slap more excess into a stock market index fund? Some custom ETF or international fund? Basically, I see a lot of risk in the stock market right now, but everything else has a historically lower ROI.
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Jul 22, 2018 17:02
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baquerd posted:You would generally want to maintain your asset allocation with an eye toward tax efficient fund placement and tax loss/gain harvesting. Other than that, maxing out your tax advantaged space doesn't indicate a change in investing strategy. We already max out tax-advantaged fund placement with a vaguely boglehead approach. This is about what to do with other opportunities, especially if we think total stock market is very risky in 2019.
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Jul 22, 2018 19:38
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Droo posted:Well in that case https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2018/01/17/a-complete-beginners-guide-to-bitcoin-in-2018/#14ea0e0b4418 haha, hell no. Thanks for the laugh though.
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Jul 22, 2018 19:43
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Question about mutual funds vs. ETFs. Vanguard offers equivalent products in each form. However, they can have different expense ratios: VBTLX total bond mutual fund, ratio 0.05 == BND total bond etf, ratio 0.035 VSIGX intermediate treasury fund, ratio 0.07 == VGIT intermed treasury etf, ratio 0.05 There's a few other examples but I won't bother listing them all. My question is, why the difference? Why would anyone buy the fund instead of the ETF given the expense ratio spread? Aren't ETFs sometimes more tax-efficient, on top of the ratio advantage? I must be missing something here because I am not a pro like the people who run Vanguard. What's the deal? edit: hmm, maybe transaction costs? buy if you're buying and holding, the lower ratio would win out over time pmchem fucked around with this message at 00:13 on Mar 8, 2020 |
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Mar 7, 2020 23:12
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doingitwrong posted:Look at the Admiral fund equivalents. They have the same expense ratio as the ETFs. You must not have looked at the examples in my post. VBTLX and VSIGX are Admiral funds.
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Mar 8, 2020 14:17
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recommending VBMFX instead of VBTLX smdh
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Mar 10, 2020 00:10
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spwrozek posted:It doesn't matter. This is long term retirement investment discussion. The advice is to keep buying and holding, especially if you are under 50. There are a lot of people coming into the thread and freaking out or making stupid assertions (especially for the goal of the thread). Keep buying, keep holding, keep living, spend to your budget, save more cash if you are worried about your job, etc. The advice will continue to be the same, buy and hold, buy and hold. Time in the market is the key. There you have it folks, close thread, replace OP, don’t need 751+ pages of this. Investing is just buy and hold! Don’t think, just buy!
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Mar 10, 2020 17:01
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love 2 plot from 1900 using a log scale
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Mar 12, 2020 21:45
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The world economy is imploding in an unprecedented fashion, the S&P 500 is still above August 2017 levels, and you guys are dumping your savings into stocks? I realize that you can't time the market if you're looking at some chart of a random walk, but man, how using about some context? We have not hit bottom. I laddered out of stocks starting mid-Feb, and it's just maddening to see this thread continue to push blind investment. I'm not even trying to 'pick a stock', I'm talking pure index investments. How about, yes, invest in stocks for long-term, but maybe hang on for a minute and see how the next week shakes out? I am pretty sure you're not gonna see the DJIA fly past 29k in the next week or something miss out on this 'temporary dip' in the markets.
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Mar 12, 2020 22:56
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DeadFatDuckFat posted:... You don't have to invest all your funds at once. Like, you can throw in some as it drops this week and thats fine. This is the long term investing thread, no? What are you expecting to happen in the next week that will make putting some money in now a bad idea when you retire? I dunno, exponential growth of a pandemic that leads to internal quarantines in the USA and shutdown of schools, torpedoing local economies? I guess that's "priced in" and will go away by 31 years from now, in some posters' opinions. I can't call the exact bottom. But you know what, cash sounds pretty good for a week. The stocks will still be there to buy when the VIX is somewhere under 50.
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Mar 12, 2020 23:10
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Motronic posted:If that is your risk tolerance then go for it. Hold cash. Further information? Well, VIX, for one. Further details about what Congress and Trump do as a bailout package. Europe is ahead of us, infection-wise, so we can see if they turn-over their infection rate like South Korea did (temporary) or China did, and how they do it. Fed meeting is next week which will have rate cut info (I know -- 'priced in') in addition to other announcements. There's a wealth of information every week. FOR THE RECORD: until the past 30 days, my entire set of investments the past 10 years were in lifecycle funds or index funds. I endorse the long-term, slow, buy and hold strategy. I will eventually be nearly entirely back in lifecycle and index funds. But come on, there have to be some exceptions, and slow-motion trainwrecks are an exception for me. What's so wrong with non-stock investments for a week, if you're really looking long-term? Do people think things are going to jump back up so quickly that you've lost your window to buy in? If so, hats off to you, you're better at predicting this rebound than I am. I'm very risk averse.
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Mar 12, 2020 23:21
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Cheesemaster200 posted:What non-stock investments should we be looking at? I don't know. I diversified further into bonds, including treasuries, and interest-gaining, insured cash accounts. Do what you will. I can't tell you what will be best over the next week. I just think people need to consider hedging their risk and exposure to equities when the VIX is at 75 and stocks just had their worst week since 1987 (edit: I reduced my equities risk much earlier, but that doesn't matter for your question). The stocks will still be there to purchase tomorrow. Maybe the bulls in this thread are right and we've already hit bottom and you'd be risking missing out on big gains within the next week. It's not impossible. I just doubt that's the case and am temporarily in lower volatility investments.
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Mar 12, 2020 23:29
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Also, there was a dead cat bounce after Monday's bloodbath, so yes, by all means, please be smug if the S&P recovers on Friday. I concede the market might go up tomorrow!** **(or any other particular day in the future!)
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Mar 12, 2020 23:36
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Popete posted:Anyone having trouble logging into Vanguard? I can't even check ETF prices on their website (also VTI won't show up on Google Finance for me anymore). I had issues in Chrome today; at the same time, Firefox worked.
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Mar 17, 2020 17:52
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He suggested to "wait a few weeks" on investing in response to analysis, based on widely reported news, that there may be a major global economic impact due to a pandemic. If you're truly a long-term investor with a 30-year horizon, and believe that analysis, why fret about waiting a few weeks to invest? Seems like you can wait-and-see on that timeframe. Note, I said a few weeks, not a few years. Further, if you have confidence in your reading of world events, why not act on it? Let's say you literally had foreknowledge that there would be a nuclear bomb going off in NYC in 1 week. "Is the market literally never going to recover?" Nah, it will recover, on a 30-year time horizon, unless it's a prelude to a global nuclear holocaust. Either way, I'd be fine with selling most my stocks and waiting a few weeks. This thread generally gives good advice for normal times but man, it's a little dogmatic.
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Mar 17, 2020 19:22
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acidx posted:You can't buy at the lowest point and sell at the highest point without the benefit of hindsight. Buying all the way down, and all the back way up is the most effective way to capitalize on all the gains. This isn't the casino thread. in fact, this thread is so dogmatic, that people can't recognize sarcasm or satire anymore
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Mar 17, 2020 19:24
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timn posted:If you did this every time an economic downturn is predicted based on widely reported news, over the long run you would significantly underperform just staying in the market. Have we already forgotten the thread's previous title? His post was made on Feb. 29 in response to a specific, ongoing international crisis. Not some economist looking at whatever macro indicators and predicting a general top on a markov chain. He could have been wrong, but, he recommended a short-term action (weeks) and it was based on a real crisis. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Hubei_lockdowns#Lockdowns (Hubei has ~58m people) quote:13 February 2020, the Chinese government has issued extension of order to shut down all non-essential companies, including manufacturing plants, in Hubei Province until at least 24:00 20 February. If someone wants to take short-term actions to mitigate risk based on that news, it's an investment decision that should be rationally analyzed, and not just blown off with "don't time the market".
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Mar 17, 2020 19:50
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Leperflesh posted:Did he take the same action when the SARS outbreak started? How about the swine flu epidemic? Bird flu? I dunno, did China lockdown 58m people and nuke its economy in an entire province for months in response to any of those events?
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Mar 17, 2020 20:05
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Hoodwinker posted:I'll go ahead and state for the record that (by my understanding) the goal of retirement investing is "reaching your asset goal prior to your intended retirement date." You can do that by throwing every spare dollar you have into the market, or by trying to get clever with what assets you invest in, or by trying to suss out good times to buy and sell, etc. There are a million strategies. The simplest, most cost-effective, and least troubling one is to consistently put money into index funds on a fixed schedule with an estimation of the expected rate of return over X years for money invested via that asset allocation, and then don't do anything else. The thread is real big on this strategy, because it's low stress, low cost, and requires very little brainpower. This is a reasonable post and I agree with most of your points. However, someone may want take a retirement goal (in total funds or timeline) and be more aggressive, or conservative. Reality might not be "hit $X by $DATE", be actually be better described as "hit $<RANGE> by $DATE". The distribution of $RANGE affects the strategy. This adds complications. It adds nuance. If someone wants to deal with that nuance, it's easy to respond with canned advice. Instead, in my opinion, it would be great to engage the poster with (y)our best analysis of their goals, motivations, and the situation at hand. Sometimes the answer will still be "nah, invest as previously planned, and by the way don't time the market." That's fine, if it follows the analysis. Sometimes it might be "adjust your short-term plans", "change your strategy entirely", or "just rebalance", "go buy a lifecycle fund", etc. Often we'll all be wrong, but, to me, there is value to be gained (non-monetary at the least!) in trying and learning. Let's not shut out the nuance.
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Mar 17, 2020 20:52
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:totally agreed. i just beat the market timing drum in the other thread when people start talkin bout retirement accounts. YOLO with your discretionary at the worlds biggest legal casino, go nuts. Let's pull on #5 a bit and assume 1-4 were done. What are the best ways this thread recommends to hedge against downside risks in equities?
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Mar 17, 2020 22:09
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spwrozek posted:This isn't a thread for options buying. Come on man. Your whole thing is a bunch of garbage and basically giving crap advice to everyone that should not be doing anything. Especially if you are in your 30s. Hold onto your stock and bonds in the asset allocation you are comfortable with and carry on. Keep investing if you can, save more cash if you need to do that. baddog is trying to educate the thread about the potential of using put options as insurance when faced with uncertainty due to an economic crisis and you're saying it's "a bunch of garbage" and "crap advice" ok https://www.fool.com/investing/options/insure-your-portfolio-against-huge-losses.aspx https://www.investors.com/research/options/options-trading-put-option-caterpillar-stock/ https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/protective-put.asp https://seekingalpha.com/article/4303675-risk-off-using-put-options-insurance-in-frothy-markets https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/active-investor/protect-your-profits https://www.marketwatch.com/story/use-options-to-protect-your-stock-portfolio-2010-05-04 https://www.theoptionsguide.com/portfolio-insurance-using-index-puts.aspx it's not for everyone but it's shameful for this thread to blow it off
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Mar 19, 2020 18:49
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Leperflesh posted:How many of those are about hedging your long-term retirement accounts with short-term put options during a crisis? I'm pretty sure most of them are about hedging your trading account stock positions with options, which is totally a good and fine thing people should do, and which is discussed at length and expertly in the stock trading thread. I'm busy so this reply is short, but, it is absolutely legit to use puts to hedge your index fund retirement investments. Example: https://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/on-retirement/articles/2017-12-19/8-ways-to-lower-your-stock-market-risk-in-retirement way #6 describes exactly what you asked about, and can be used in addition to lowering equity exposure as you age quote:6. Buy a protective put option. Options are intimidating for people who don’t understand them. They can be risky if you don’t know what you’re doing. But by design, they are financial tools to help increase or lower the risk/return profile of a security you own. One common method to hedge against downside equity risk is to buy a protective put option on a broad market index already in your portfolio. This strategy is ideal for those who are worried about near-term market declines, but expect the markets to grow over the long term.
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Mar 19, 2020 19:38
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Hoodwinker posted:This removes one element of the market timing (guessing when to buy back in) but still introduces additional cost into the equation. Well, insurance isn't free. But unlike health insurance, there's no open enrollment period for options, you can buy any time you desire. Also hard to buy flood insurance when a hurricane is coming, but you can buy put options any time. Granted, cost may be higher in time of need. I would also like to see some type of cost analysis like you mentioned. I am not advocating a particular options strategy for everyone and CERTAINLY not advocating buying rolling puts forever to hedge your 401k. I'm just saying, man, these things have a real use and if someone's showing how to mitigate retirement investment risk through their use ... we should applaud, not criticize. Certainly seems like a reasonable thing to do when a global pandemic kicks off. pmchem fucked around with this message at 19:49 on Mar 19, 2020 |
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Mar 19, 2020 19:46
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Leperflesh posted:Yeah the issue here is that Baddog is advocating timing the market with puts because everyone knew the corona virus was gonna be bad/the market is currently plunging; he was not saying "hedge your index funds in your retirement account by buying rolling puts" which as you point out is also pretty bad because you're just incurring ongoing costs in order to effectively reduce your volatility risk, which you could instead do with... less volatile investment options, for much lower cost. SlyFrog posted:Yeah. This all really seems excessively complex for longer term planning. Picking up option instruments that have expiry dates measured in weeks or months as a hedge against risk for long term investing is, simply put, silly. Cheesemaster200 posted:Well yes, options have no place in a long term portfolio. That was a more tongue and cheek comment about how sometimes safe investments aren't so safe. While I understand the points you were trying to make, people can do really creative things to hedge long-term risk with options, too! Not just the short-term examples I've been discussing. Check this out: https://amplifyetfs.com/swan.html https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SWAN Dudes created an ETF that is ~90% treasuries, ~10% SPY LEAP calls. As a result, their ETF gets ~70% the gain of the S&P500, but, is hedged against black swan events where the market quickly crashes. Amazingly, since they just had a field test of the whole drat idea, we can see how it did! https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SWAN%2C%20SPY It mostly tracked SPY since last June, falling a little behind in the huge run-up to peak SPY. It's still in the green since last June, up ~5%, while SPY is down -14%. It held value very well, giving whoever owns it the desired hedge and time to take other actions instead of just having their portfolio get creamed. But, why not just use bonds? Check out SWAN vs VBINX, the Vanguard Balanced fund (60/40 stocks/bonds) https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SWAN,VBINX The Balanced fund trails SWAN every step of the way since June, by a fair margin. I'm honestly impressed. I don't know how SWAN will hold up in the new zero fed rate environment, since their holdings are ~90% treasury. But loving amazing that it performs so well, and as advertised. I'm half tempted to suggest it to some family members who need more conservative retirement holdings. If anyone has analysis/thoughts on SWAN I'd love to hear them.
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Mar 19, 2020 23:20
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:Ouch! That's pretty bad. Well, it's not the S&P500, but, bad compared to what? What if you wanted to retire in 2030 and began investing heavily in Vanguard's target date 2030 fund in 2006, getting a bit of a late start on things? https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,VTHRX At the start of 2020, SPY was up ~240% and VTHRX was up ~150%, or about 63% of the S&P. So, I guess 70% doesn't look so bad if your goal is to grow wealth while mitigating risk?
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Mar 19, 2020 23:34
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moana posted:Has it been tested across any other date ranges? What do backdated runs look like versus a balanced fund? How much volatility does it have compared to the 60/40? I think the guy in the video on their page discussed backdated testing, but, all I know about it is in my post. If anyone can answer those questions I’d love to hear it. Being the internet the quickest way to get an answer would be to claim nobody can possibly know the answer to those questions.
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Mar 20, 2020 00:40
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please knock Mom! posted:just about covers my phone bill a bit short of my candles budget
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Mar 22, 2020 14:52
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Atahualpa posted:Hi everyone, looking for some advice. Good job on the move to G. 1 - don't forget the target date funds, if you don't want to rebalance things yourself. 2 - it depends? 3 - open a taxable vanguard brokerage account, buy something there (eventually). ask this question in the stock trading thread.
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Mar 24, 2020 17:57
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https://twitter.com/HedgeyeDDale/status/1242978725567909889
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Mar 26, 2020 02:18
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acidx posted:Me personally, I see it as a tool, but I think most Americans would completely mortgage their future if given the chance. you act like that's not the plan 
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Mar 26, 2020 22:35
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I also posted this in the stock thread but figured I'd get a different answer here. Is anyone here trying to buy into sector-specific ETFs/funds due to the nature of this crash instead of just going with non-sector-specific indexes? For example, the vanguard consumer staples ETF may be more resilient than a S&P500 index if this turns out to be a bad recesssion? https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vdc It has outperformed VOO since Fall '18 overall, and also during this crash, but S&P did recover better from the '18 bottom. I am also thinking of putting small bets on the vanguard healthcare etf (VHT) due to the nature of this crisis, and utility etf (VPU) for diversification. These would complement my general index plays on S&P, tech growth stocks, and dividend stocks. Trying to map out my equity investments as I get back in, and I want to avoid internationals for now, so I'm not just dumping into a target date fund. This is aside from any specific stock buys or bond holdings. Thoughts?
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Mar 28, 2020 19:19
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Residency Evil posted:It's so nice how everyone single financial institution in the world suddenly seems to be very concerned about me! they need someone to buy the stuff they're dumping
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Apr 1, 2020 12:47
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https://twitter.com/StockCats/status/1245781002657685508?s=20
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Apr 5, 2020 16:01
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I just thought it was funny. I felt that way a month and a half ago but I'm less certain about buying stocks now, so no particular recommendation being made in the post.
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Apr 5, 2020 18:59
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Astro7x posted:I just want to know if he ever bought back in or was still sitting on cash in a money market after telling us his plan. If I remember correctly, baddog didn't sell. He bought SPY puts. That's very different. I don't know what gains he has realized from them. I sold entirely in late Feb. (SPY 338) from my main retirement account (well -- converted stocks, which were ~90% of holdings, to bonds, then to treasuries), and a bit more in other accounts in early March. I bought back in 60% stocks on 3/31 (SPY 255). I am further allocating up to 80% stocks today or early next week. Did I time the top or bottom perfectly? No. Did I expect to? No. Am I going to come out of this better than if I held the entire way? Yes. Was this guaranteed to work? No. Would I have bought put options instead of selling my stock if I was approved for options trading or knew poo poo about that in mid-Feb? Yes. To each their own. MANAGE YOUR RISK!
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Apr 9, 2020 16:39
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Leperflesh posted:The issue with calling the covid-19 crisis in february is that either A) you did a lot of careful research and had enough knowledge at hand to be properly competent in the differences between coronavirus epidemiology, OR, you were lucky to get it right this time vs. the other times there's been coronavirus outbreaks (SARS, for example) where the market totally failed to tank because it wound up not turning into a serious global pandemic, despite very worrying initial stories coming out of asia. https://twitter.com/ErikSTownsend/status/1226281132301438977?s=20
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Apr 9, 2020 23:27
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spwrozek posted:Who is this guy you ask: yeah, he actually didn't even make the cut on my twitter list because he insufferably retweets anyone who retweets his thread that I linked, and most of his other content is covered by others in my twitter feed. Others in financial twitter world (aka 'fintwit') similarly commented on coronavirus risks around that time, but, his is an easy coherent one-stop shop for history's sake. I wasn't even following fintwit world in February. I just went on other press reports about China's lockdown and things starting in Italy, and was watching treasury yields collapse over here (flight to safety). know this is going down -- https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/20/business/china-coronavirus-wuhan-delivery.html then see this gearing up -- https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/23/world/europe/italy-coronavirus.html
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Apr 10, 2020 03:34
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for backtesting portfolio performance, this is a decent tool: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio but, it does not account for taxes (e.g. taxes on dividends/distributions in a taxable account). anyone know of a similar tool that lets you include taxes in the historical performance?
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Apr 11, 2020 18:23
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hmm, they have a nice suite of optimization tools too, I mean, why fire-and-forget into VTSAX when you can just monthly or quarterly readjust ETF weights based on 36-month lookback to maximize returns? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/rolling-optimization
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Apr 11, 2020 23:17
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