Livestock Trading Thread: Baa or better

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Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

Thoughts on DATA? I really like the software and has no debt but it's ev/ebitda is -1.75k lol

# ¿ Nov 13, 2013 16:19

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# ¿ May 17, 2024 01:48

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

the 10,000 hours thing is about mastering something, not learning the basics and making a decent, chill, 5 figure living

# ¿ Nov 13, 2013 17:43

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

Pollyanna posted:

Hey guys, I'm back.

So mom and I were talking, and she really really really wants me to learn technical analysis and "use it to make money on the side" (her words). I am of a different mind because I think she and dad are mistaken on what kind of gains I could make and on this actually being worth it if it's not a full-time job. My argument is that it's way more worth it for my future to instead invest money into a Vanguard index fund and not constantly gently caress with it. Basically, I say that it's not nearly as lucrative as they think it is especially since I don't have any high-frequency trading tools; they say that it's perfectly doable for a human if they're attached to a computer all day.

I'm proposing a compromise: I will "learn technical analysis" (or whatever their impression of it is) and use seed money to practice if it's matched by the same amount of money invested into shares of VTSAX. They're not happy with it, so I still need to convince them of the idea. Before that, though, I have some questions about serious (as opposed to mom 'n pop) stock trading. My part of the deal is that I genuinely get a good grasp on the "trading world", and speaking to people with firsthand experience seems like the best thing to do.

How much of a time investment is necessary to actually make good (or any) gains from this? Doesn't it seem like at the beginning, I'm not likely to make beaucoup buxx for a good long while? The return on investment on this seems really bad, especially with the way they approach trading: entirely by hand. Which leads me to my next point...

If the entire "point" of technical analysis and trading is to respond to specific statistical markers within very short periods of time (milliseconds, almost), shouldn't I have my computer do it instead of trying to do it by hand? My parents' approach so far has been checking their stocks every night, seeing what the RSI/SMA/Bollinger bands/Eliot waves say, and then deciding to buy or sell based on that (unless things didn't go as they expected, in which case they freak out and dump everything). Isn't this way more inefficient and nowhere near as effective as having a computer program handle it instead?

Personally, I'm wary of the whole "stick to the numbers only ever" approach, cause I think it's way too reductive and narrowly-focused to be realistic. TA is a tool - a really good tool when it's used correctly. But in this case, it isn't. And it's one thing to let my parents hemorrhage money on stupid poo poo, but if I'm gonna be doing any of it I want it to go well.

And yes, I know, "why do you keep asking this poo poo if you're so against it, just tell them to gently caress off", and if they weren't using us kids' money or trying to draw me into it I wouldn't care at all, but for the life of me I cannot convince them that they have no idea what they're doing. If they won't listen to me, maybe they'll listen to someone else.

My parents won't listen to me but maybe they'll listen to some guys who post on a comedy website and talk about trading stocks o nthe side during their day job working at the genius bar.

# ¿ Nov 28, 2013 22:43

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

DariusLikewise posted:

So I got laid off at CP Rail about a year ago, at the time they issued the shares I had bought in the ESPP as a certificate and showed me the door. I've been sitting on them for awhile now and they just reached an all time high of 161 on the TSX. The company seems comically overvalued compared to other railways currently and I get the feeling they could drop at any time. I'm getting the feeling I should take my 9k or so and just get out completely and use that towards starting an RSP like I've wanted. Anyone willing to offer up some free advice?

SEll your shares you stupid idiot. Whhy the hell wouldn't you?

# ¿ Nov 28, 2013 22:44

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

Tony Montana posted:

It's incredible how the advice just keeps going in circles, once you've got some basics down and read some of those books in the OP - you can just keep swatting the questions like flies.

Makes you realize what a wrought the finance industry is, how little most people understand about money beyond buying poo poo.

It's insane tbh. I remmember reading a blog post about how the idea of the complication in finance relates to the hiding of risk. As though the complication itself reduces risk or minimizes it somewhat when it doesn't at all and perhaps enlargens it. well, bye.

# ¿ Dec 7, 2013 08:43

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

nebby posted:

Also thought the thread might be interested, Meb Faber's international shareholder yield ETF got listed today:

http://www.cambriafunds.com/fyld/

very cool

# ¿ Dec 12, 2013 19:27

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

nebby posted:

Who said this again and what happened to them? IIRC this was said in reference to loving ZNGA, so did that guy just bow out after getting eviscerated?

lol i forgot about this. yeah i htink he was referencing znga or gourpon lol

# ¿ Mar 3, 2014 04:21

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

Fuschia tude posted:

I never understand why people don't use staggered trailing stops, rather than selling 100% of their position. Are people that locked into boolean thinking?

when youre wrong youre wrong.

# ¿ Mar 3, 2014 04:22

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

don't hshit on biotech all.... .LD

# ¿ Mar 7, 2014 21:09

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

any good energy stocks

# ¿ Jan 5, 2015 17:44

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

LLCoolJD posted:

Part of me wants to put some money into oil stocks. But then I think about the prolonged slump in coal/minerals. Not just small players like WLT and MCP but the big boys like BHP are hurting. I guess just one accident or bombing at a refinery somewhere would drive up oil stocks but I'm holding off for at least a little bit longer.

jsut stagger your purchase price over the next year, buying a bit on dips. it's not going to shoot up with any sustainable strength in the near term. ive been a fan of oxy in the past

# ¿ Jan 8, 2015 04:50

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

# ¿ Aug 25, 2015 02:24

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

everyone is on vacation.

# ¿ Aug 25, 2015 22:16

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

ryanbruce posted:

AAPL didn't do as well as some of the other players. Facebook and Starbucks are better returns.

Also.. GPRO

ah yes, blue buffalo pet

# ¿ Aug 25, 2015 23:57

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

any cheap automobile companies that are falling faster than they should?

# ¿ Sep 26, 2015 01:11

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

greasyhands posted:

Goddamn, I should not have stepped in front of VRX. whoops

dumbass

# ¿ Mar 19, 2016 01:28

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

mearn posted:

RUSS, how can you go wrong with something called Russian Bear?

a russian mine etf?

# ¿ Mar 19, 2016 04:32

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

Arkane posted:

Good question.

Figure out something that is cheap and not poo poo and post results.

Yeah I know I'm not retarded. Was hoping you guys could fill me in since I've been out of the game for a bit

# ¿ Mar 19, 2016 04:34

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

fougera posted:

Been raising cash, keeping a huge position in PEGI though.

Really don't know what to think of this market.

PEGI has a lot of debt

# ¿ Mar 19, 2016 04:36

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

R.A. Dickey posted:

Great question... I think financials still have a ways to go, I hold the higher betas (BAC, C), but like GS also, more of a medium to long term trade though. I like TWTR at these levels also (but have been very wrong about Twitter before). Beyond that...things are rough, its a weird market. I've been trading energy, CNX and ETFs mostly, but not seeing much at these prices that I like.

I don't like wading into financial because I have a hard time understanding them. TWTR and CNX look ok but too high debt for me.

The S&P is still really high up, I guess now isn't the best time to find value stocks.

# ¿ Mar 21, 2016 01:10

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

VendaGoat posted:

I won't say why.

Wait until april 26th, at the earliest. July 21st at the latest.

...

That's when Dark Souls 3 is released

# ¿ Mar 21, 2016 04:20

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

lol zero hedge got unmasked

# ¿ Apr 30, 2016 14:07

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

Josh Lyman posted:

Their reply to the Bloomberg article is solid gold.

It's sad and gross

# ¿ May 2, 2016 20:13

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

Pryor on Fire posted:

If you want to learn about technical analysis start by reading Murphy's book on it, it's the bible: http://www.amazon.com/Technical-Analysis-Financial-Markets-Comprehensive/dp/0735200661

For you options folks: what's the best platform with charting that you guys like? Not finding many resources or free trials of software out there.

its pretty good

# ¿ May 17, 2016 15:10

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

Torpor posted:

Gartman is wrong 100% of the time. That is really impressive.

idk why anyone reads him

# ¿ May 17, 2016 17:47

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

Josh Lyman posted:

I tried to trade a 3x oil ETF multiple times (unsuccessfully). I don't even know what the term risk management means.

That's what trading is.

# ¿ Sep 7, 2016 12:48

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

Just bought a bunch of tin.

# ¿ Sep 8, 2016 21:05

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

Anyone want some tin? Got a lot over here

# ¿ Sep 8, 2016 21:05

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

Art Flower posted:

Is there any active day trader here?

Probably. I have some tin if you're interested.

# ¿ Sep 12, 2016 01:15

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

Art Flower posted:

yeah I'm interesed

Ok. How about 10000000000000000000000 dollars for it

# ¿ Sep 12, 2016 12:57

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

Agronox posted:

To be honest a person's chances of pulling off significant or consistent profits as a day trader seem very low unless you have some sort of a) flow knowledge, b) statistical edge, or c) proven algorithmic method and the software to execute it. The odds are very much against you.

They are low but it's not impossible. I think there are easier ways to make money nowadays with Venture capitalists throwing money at anyone who knows a computer language

# ¿ Sep 12, 2016 16:25

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

Bought some more Tin

# ¿ Sep 13, 2016 18:53

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

Omnicarus posted:

FSLR

Dumbass

# ¿ Sep 14, 2016 17:47

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

oil up 2%?

# ¿ Sep 15, 2016 18:32

Michael Transactions: Nov 11, 2013

Cheesemaster200 posted:

I don't quite understand Ford. The stock has been hilariously undervalued for years, they have nearly a 5% dividend in a period of ridiculous low bond yields, and they have been posting record profits. I understand that investors think that current levels of car sales are unsustainable, but they are currently at ~6.5 forward P/E, a ~8.0 EV/EBITDA and a forward dividend payout ratio of 32%. It looks like the market is expecting a massive cratering in sales and profitability, and I just don't see it. It is obvious that auto sales are plateauing, but the current valuation expects a repeat of 2009.

They have a lot of debt and I know their sales have been fueled by financing, but at the same time they are also sitting on an ever increasing pile of cash.

Finally, even if this doomsday crash does happen to the auto marker, that would have more of a justification of their current value. In reality, you know F would drop to $3 or something if it actually transpired. The market is expecting the worst and then falling more when the worst is even slightly hinted at.

Honestly I was more concerned about their dimwitted foray into driver-less cars than next year's forecast. However I guess they are related as they are going to dump millions down the drain chasing a market which hasn't been proven yet (and probably won't be).

I agree with you but dislike companies with a lot of debt.

# ¿ Sep 15, 2016 18:35