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Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

CNN refusing to air a self-produced documentary about Bahrain during the Arab Spring on its international service, and attempting to blackmail the former employee responsible for it into silence.

CNN's business ties to various dictatorships.

The articles are pretty long, so I'm only posting the links here. Pretty infuriating stuff.

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Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

Young Freud posted:

Unfortunately, the guy who was previously the Che Guevara for the Arab Spring revolutions, that Libyan-Irish guy, ended up getting himself blown up while attacking a checkpoint. :smith:

Wait, what? You're not talking about Mahdi al-Harati, are you? He's dead??

I really hope this is a mistake.

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

Cesar Cedeno posted:

But yeah, if Syria's choices boil down to Assad or ISIS, as seems likely, kind of a no brainier who should be backed.

'Nobody at all'?

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

Cat Mattress posted:

The new reality has been created. It'd be hard to argue that it's superior to the old.

Is that... an actual Bush-era quote? Like, not from the Onion or something? :stare:

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

Ghost of Reagan Past posted:

Well that's good. How long will they hold onto the Mosul Dam, though? When US air support fucks off will they be able to fight ISIS off again?

To be honest, I can see the amount of US air strikes increasing even more from here, not the other way around. There's not really been any great outcry against the intervention from the American public or the Republicans (at least not to the extent where it would matter for elections), so he'll probably keep going further in this direction as long as there are no American casualties.

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

Torpor posted:

The problem here is that IS just killed 50% of their leverage; this is also the time the US government trots out the "we don't negotiate with terrorists" line.

The United States were already committed to bombing them before that, though. I don't think that the life of one or two of its citizens outweighs whatever assets America has installed in Erbil in the 'calculations' - As cold as that may sound.

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

Just The Facts posted:

Its just proof the US is getting to them. Suddenly their fleet of armored Humvees is no longer an asset but a huge target.

What I don't understand is why they haven't transferred all of their modern captured equipment over to the Syrian front by now. They can always get some kind of motor vehicle to serve as a replacement troop transport, but all of their ex-US-stuff is both totally irreplaceable AND very high up on the target list for the Americans. The Syrian airforce just seems like much less of an existential threat in comparison.

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

Imagine the kind of social damage this group will do if it holds on to its current territory for just five more years.

Edit: Beaten by the Zed's dead baby, how is that!

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

sullat posted:

Well, his theory that Israel will somehow be able to bomb the chemical weapons out of ISIS's hands is a little ridiculous. The Osiris reactor incident was possible because there was a big, permanent, easily identifiable place to bomb, and IIRC, the air defenses hadn't been completely set up when the Israelis struck. Chemical weapons are easier to make, easier to hide, and probably don't show up on google maps.

Osirak, not Osiris - Although we DO currently have a group called 'ISIS' messing up the neighborhood, so you are excused for being confused.

Edit: I complain about other people's posts, but cannot even spell 'Osiris' correctly myself!

Gniwu fucked around with this message at 17:08 on Aug 30, 2014

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

Count Roland posted:

They clearly only became bad because we didn't give them enough money and weapons and supportive airstrikes. If only they had won early on they'd totally be fair and inclusive.

You say this sarcastically, but the feeling of Western abandonment beyond lip service actually was a significant factor in the Syrian opposition's radicalization. That slow process was really frustrating to watch. :(

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

Cippalippus posted:

Wow, what an article. This really sets the mood for the evening.
Eagerly awaiting the new posts telling me that I'm wrong for considering Bashar Al-Assad's involvement the only reasonable way to guarantee a future to Syria.

You are wrong for considering Bashar Al-Assad's involvement the only reasonable way to guarantee a future to Syria.

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

Cippalippus posted:

I might be, I don't pretend to be right about everything.
Did you read the article? It's very interesting. It almost makes Al Nusra seem moderate, all in all.

I read the article, and NO, what the gently caress is wrong with you?? This is how 'moderates' look to you - Sadism, powertripping, all the good stuff? I guess I'm beginning to understand why you fawn over Assad so much, he must also be a 'moderate' in your eyes.

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

Cippalippus posted:

Oh, I was talking about the fact that he made it out alive, and the fact that in the last part he didn't get beaten, or that he could talk with the "man of learning". As far as local sunni groups fare, that seem quite moderate to me.

That is a completely insane interpretation of the events! They were randomly torturing him throughout his ordeal, and then pretty much calling him a faithless traitor when he DARED to try and escape them. The improved treatment at the end only came about when they were suddenly under heavy pressure by the Islamic State and figured that Padnos could perhaps be, in an indirect way, their entry ticket into a Western nation as refugees.

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

Cippalippus posted:

Oh, yeah. I know. That's why I still think that Assad is, all in all, the best outcome for Syria. The moderate opposition to him exists only in this thread.

You will excuse me if I do not believe that this particular opinion of your was influenced by any recent or even semi-recent events on the ground. Though I do not post here much, I have been following the Middle East threads for the last few years. You have been an unconditional Assad fanboy from DAY ONE, long before the opposition was as hardened and radicalized as it is now.

So don't pretend that your support for Assad is a 'lesser evil'-type of thing. You just slowly changed your justifications over time to something more palatable for the thread, but your actual viewpoints have always been completely set in stone.

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

Phlegmish posted:

Is Al-Nusra fighting the FSA now? Weren't they attacking ISIS just a few months ago?

Yeah, and then they were idiotically included in the list of US airstrike targets.

Guardian article, note this bit near the end:

quote:

Al-Nusra had been reeling over the past six weeks since more than 50 of its members were killed in the opening salvo of US air strikes, which it had thought were intended only for Isis.

Since then, its leaders have been partly reconciled with Isis in northern Syria, sending commanders and men to fight in joint operations. There were unconfirmed reports that Isis members had joined al-Nusra in the battle for Maarouf’s village.

Another great idea by the Obama administration, I guess. I'm sure they thought of all the likely long-term consequences when they ordered that attack!

Honestly though, I hope those fifty dead fighters were worth the trouble this rapprochement will cause all non-IS-aligned parties to the conflict in the future, but I'm not holding my breath!

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

Party Plane Jones posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVISyjFwXAU

Video of ISIS fighters discussing the slaves they're going to purchase, the price, and what kind of Yazidi girls they want. Video ends with a message to a guy named Abu Fahd, who they either inform (or taunt) saying "Your Yazidi is dead. She is dead."

Article also has a transcript but it neglects the last 25 seconds of the tape: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...eo-9836589.html

During moments like this one, I can almost understand how My Imaginary GF must be feeling all the time.

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

How much is left of that city by now, anyway? After all the airstrikes and months of house-to-house fighting I cannot imagine any building in there offering livable conditions to returning refugees.

I'm guessing that even if the Islamic State has to retreat eventually, Kobane as a community will probably remain scattered to the winds, right?

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

Phlegmish posted:

I don't understand why they would allow this unless it's due to massive incompetence. Even if they hate Kurdish separatists, this is just not a good idea for the Turkish authorities.

They don't care how it looks at this point. Think 'ISIS needs to get results already!!' or something. Erdogan really does hate the PKK that much.

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

Fox News just posted the full, uncensored execution video of the Jordanian pilot on their website.

Don't know what to say, other than that I did not expect that move from them at all.

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

TheOtherContraGuy posted:

How far east? This is pure speculation, but the more territory the Kurds hold in Iraq, the more concessions they can force from the central government. There's no point securing more Syrian territory if Assad is just going to retake it in a peace deal.

If the Kurds are ever able to reliably connect the Kobane and Jazira cantons, they would have a direct line of supply and reinforcements from Iraqi Kurdistan that isn't subject to Erdogan's whims. All PYD/KDP disputes notwithstanding, that would be a HUGE asset - Assad might just have to accept the facts on the ground then, even if that situation would of course never be recognized in any official peace treaty.

I've been wondering about this for quite a while now - Ever since it became clear that the Islamic State wasn't going to succeed in Kobane, actually: What is the endgame for the Syrian Kurds here? Will they try to expand their pre-war territory to connect the three autonomous cantons to each other? If you look at a map, that does not seem like it would leave them in a very defensible position. They can currently disregard this and expand like they do because they have the United States acting as their airforce. But that help will completely vanish once the opponent's name is no longer 'DAESH!!' but 'Assad', whom resident Washington cynic Obama seems to have resigned himself to tacitly support as the 'lesser evil'. And what about the Arabs living in those lands? Would they cooperate with the Kurds, seeing that their other long-term option are likely 1) Assad or 2) people who make him look like a friendly, gentle dentist?

Oh, to have access to the 'Kurdistan' Wikipedia article from ten years in the future, what wouldn't I give...

Edit: TOTALLY beaten. :stare:

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

I don't understand people.

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

With Jon Stewart set to retire from the Daily Show this year, why not help two fellow travellers of his with their own project?

Daily Show Senior Producer Sara Taksler is making a documentary with and about Bassem Youssef and his troubles with the Egyptian state. The little glimpse that the pitch video gives of his show is quite amazing - I can totally understand why Sisi destroyed it almost immediately after seizing power.

Just a word of caution: The fundraiser is on Indiegogo and uses the flexible funding method. Some of you may object to this, although I don't really see a problem in this specific case. They're both established, well-connected professionals who aren't really at risk of running away with the money, and every little bit helps.

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

TheBalor posted:

Is there a possibility that Assad as an Iranian puppet could be a brighter outcome for Southern Syria, though? Not to say that he's not a terrible man, but if he's utterly dependent on Hezbollah and Iran for his continued existence, perhaps they'll restrain him from the kind of wholesale reprisals people fear?

So then why haven't they restrained him so far, AT ALL, but have instead sent massive amounts of troops and other aid to support his behaviour?

I don't want this to sound too insulting, but where do you people still draw this kind of reality-immune optimism from? I see it in the Eastern Europe and the European politics threads as well - It's crazy, and I don't know where it comes from. 'Just world theory' or something?

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

Cippalippus posted:

Ah, who gives a poo poo about monotheists. Your writing is terrible, hopefully you're like me and english isn't your first language.

If you don't give a poo poo about monetheists, then don't comment on his post about monotheists. Your problem isn't your grasp of English, it's the combination of your very low intelligence and very strongly-held opinions. You're actually worse than people like Mightypeon or My Imaginary Girlfriend because of that, because if pressed, they can at least elaborate on their worldviews that have some internal consistency.

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

Cippalippus posted:

I was commenting on his post on Caesar. I don't even touch atheist "all religions are bad :hurr: " posts usually.
But anyway, why am I lacking internal consistency? I'm actually curious about this point.

Because you've been lionizing Assad from the day his forces first fired at then-peaceful protesters (and don't give me your old 'least-bad option' poo poo - You only eventually switched to that line after your original opinion on him proved too unpopular here) while displaying seething contempt for muslims in general. They 'need a strong hand', and all that... It's how you got your current custom title, if I remember correctly.

It's absolutely bizarre to me how much you seem to be invested in him, emotionally. And it makes little sense, what with your, ahem, 'background'.

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

Al-Saqr posted:

They can't capture a tiny Kurdish town yet they think that the capital of Kurdistan is doable?!?!

I'm not seeing this on either the Guardian or Al Jazeera. Maybe the report is in error?

Anyway, put this down to 'disintegrating internal communications' between their forces. Such an attack cannot possibly succeed and would only serve to deplete their limited resources.

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

fade5 posted:

Kurdish newspost

Since everyone here seems to have ignored this post in favour of Islamchat yet again, I just wanted to say thank you for keeping us up to date. I'm really interested in any developments relating to Kurdistan.

These are very interesting times, and it's a very fluid situation. Everything seems possible for the Kurds right now, and of course everything could also be lost just as quickly. I weakly hope that American support for them doesn't completely dry up the moment Assad redirects his attention mostly to them - Which he WILL do, eventually. They're too strong to ignore forever, and with every month that passes, they become further removed from Syria. Imagine this going on for a few more years - You'll have kids in the cantons growing up and forming political opinions without ever having lived under anything but Kurdish self-rule. You can't 'reintegrate' such people, it would be a foreign occupation by Syria at that point.

I keep thinking that in twenty or thirty years, someone's probably going to make a really grognardy boardgame about the current Kurdish situation.

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

Dahn posted:

What do you think the odds are they will keep their "gains" in Syria proper? Somehow "the west" thinks that lines drawn by a British hand on a map mean something. Sovereignty and such.


edit: I do like the boardgame idea

I don't know, that's part of what's so intriguing to me about this. With the Islamic State, I don't see them having much of a long-term ('decades') future, the rest of the Syrian rebels have even less than that... But Rojava? I honestly could not make any statement with confidence since so much is changing and going on behind the scenes.

I suppose the least wishy-washy thing I could say on this issue is that political integration between Syrian and Iraqi Kurdistan is absolutely essential if they want to improve their chances of political survival, since relying too singularly on the fickle West for long-term support is not a winning move. They're both surrounded by current or potential enemies, but together, they might very well end up strong enough that Assad could not dislodge the Syrian Kurds from the gains they seem to be planning to make (connecting the cantons), as long as they don't get too greedy. As I said though, so much will happen in the meantime that it's useless to speculate too far into the future.

Inner-Kurdish rapprochement also brings with it its own set of problems - Those two Kurdistans are radically different societies, and as much as I would love to see the Barzani mafia removed from power, that's DEFINITELY not happening anytime soon. Too strong internally, too much external Western support. So the best one can hope for is that the PYD can be a powerful progressive force in a future united Syrian/Iraqi Kurdistan. Hell, they might even get elected eventually if more people are finally fed up with the KDP for good!

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

I'm not really worried about the future of Iraqi Kurdistan. It's the Syrian part that doesn't really have a powerful external 'sponsor'. Remember that America at first wanted to abandon Kobane, and only changed its mind after the Kurds stubbornly held on to it for long enough that international media turned the city into a heroic symbol. U.S. assistance, although vital and absolutely morally justified, was based on a typical obamaesque PR decision. I hope that this motivation is in the process of changing to something more substantial as the West starts to see the value of a Middle Eastern society not strongly based upon either traditional tribal structures or religious identity, but if it's happening, it's happening behind the scenes.

Oh, and even if there ends up being significant long-term cooperation between the West and Rojava, you'll still never get the PKK off the international terror lists because of Turkey, no matter how much Erdogan proves to be a Trojan Horse yet again and again. Politics!

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

That was absolutely wonderful and heartwarming, thank you. I wish I could just frame your entire post - pictures and all - and hang it on my wall. :shobon:

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

Woah. :stare:

As someone not very knowledgeable about architecture, what are the chances that they'll have to tear down the building because of that? Surely the great amount of heat generated by such a blaze is bound to cause a lot of internal structural damage? Any experts here?

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

V. Illych L. posted:

i don't know about you, but i think that internal critique and attempts at being less hypocritical are Good Things, regardless of who's doing it.

He actually makes that exact point in his sermon. That you still have responsibility for your own immoral actions even if 'that guy over there does it too'.

I didn't agree with everything he said (especially in the first half), but that was really interesting.

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

fade5 posted:

Hopefully the cement plant won't be too damaged and can be gotten up and running again soon.:ohdear:
E: Apparently ISIL set fire to part of the plant back in September, so it's had to deal with fire and airstrikes; double :ohdear: on getting it up and running again.

Yeah, I think they can forget about getting anything useful out of that cement plant anytime soon. I'd love to be proven wrong on this, but it's probably going to look like the city of Kobane itself after the airstrikes are done.

I wish the international community would give the Syrian Kurds at least half the humanitarian assistance their Iraqi counterparts get. They're really dirt poor over there.

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

I've noticed since the breakout from Kobane that the YPG seem to do this whole encirclement thing waaay more often than the other sides in the conflict, who mostly appear to attack their objectives directly. Are they just that much more advanced tactically, or is little armchairy me missing some of the complexities on the ground that make encirclements sub-optimal? I mean, otherwise you'd always want to do them if possible, so that your enemy cannot just retreat and regroup, right?

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

SedanChair posted:

It's an airstrike that looks cool. It says nothing about the viability of Obama's long term goals (assuming he has any).

The Republicans don't have a coherent critique of Obama's response, but that doesn't mean the response is itself coherent. The "planned" Mosul offensive, for example, is a weird joke.

He definitely doesn't have any long-term goals from national point of view. It all just has to look good for long enough into the next guy's presidency that most people will not blame Obama for any resulting fiascoes. Because that would obviously endanger his future on the speaking circuit!

The Republicans are even worse - Even some of the more visible, 'important' people seem to have only the faintest knowledge of the world outside America, and when a reporter asks them something their spin doctors haven't briefed them on, it's more material for the Daily Show.

And the so-called 'Mosul offensive'? Haha, yeah, I hear it's going to be under the command of General Godot.

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

fade5 posted:

Looks like the Kurdish advance in Kobani has finally slowed down some. Oh and whoever said the La Farge cement plant would be in bad shape by the time the Kurds finally reclaimed it, it looks like you're right. That's at least the third round on airstrikes there, and God knows how many more there will be before ISIL finally gives it up.:(

That was me, and I hate being right all the time. :(

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

Brown Moses posted:

ISIS destroys a bunch of priceless historical artefacts

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WMOyGVV_gc

I know that a human life is more precious than a thousand stone statues, but as someone who actually works in a museum that houses Egyptian, Roman and Greek art, this made me tense up and involuntarily twitch in my chair every time they took a hammer to one of the objects. :gonk:

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

I wonder under how much internal pressure the IS commanders on the scene are to 'get results'. Because that's the only reason I can imagine to attempt such a broad-looking counterattack against the main body of the YPG offensive, while also having the full attention of the American airforce.

This cannot end well for them, but that's of course all the better for everyone else!

Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

On a less-than-encouraging note, the Austrian state broadcaster ORF reports that KRG authorities are preventing thousands of Arab refugees from returning to their homes (which lie in territories the Peshmerga have only recently recaptured from the Islamic State). Instead, they are destroying some of the houses and settling ethnic Kurds in the rest. Obviously, trying to appeal to any sort of rule of law to settle this is right out with the Barzanis. I reeeaaally hope that this isn't the start of them becoming another Israel. :sigh:

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Gniwu
Dec 18, 2002

Patrick Spens posted:

Not to be rude, but are you at all familiar with how nationalism works?

Not to be rude, but do they just imprison and/or murder minorities where you live? If not, then perhaps you can understand my beef with the Kurds here? I would think that we all hold them to significantly higher standards than the fanatics they are fighting against.

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