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The loneliness is starting to get to me. I feel weak and don't have drive. I live a bit outside the city so that I can go take a walk in the woods while passing less than a dozen people and that certainly helps, but I have a feeling of dread lately. Also, I am starting to doubt the efficiency of the social distancing. Looking at the numbers it certainly helps to slow the spread since we are way below exponential growth. Our growth rates are just a bit above linear. Basically it's x new infections a day, where x increases by about 2000 each week. Right now it's about 7000 a day. Now, in order to defeat the pandemic 2/3 of the population would need to be immune. (If one person spreads it to 3 others, that's the point when the rate would remain relatively constant.) That's about 55 million people. If we do some rounding and assume that it's 25.000 cases per day for the foreseeable future, that would mean that we would need 2200 days. Of course over such a huge timescale the geometric growth would extend way more, but either way, the numbers clearly say that our isolation would need to go on for years until it's relatively safe. Flattening the curve is not that great if it's supposed to be the new normal for years. All we can hope for is that the numbers are massively underreported by a factor of ten or hundred and that there are countless carriers with weak to no symptoms. Otherwise I guess we have to wait for a vaccine which arrives in a few years. Don't get me wrong. It's a good thing that our hospital system isn't as exhausted as the one in Italy. But keeping it roughly on this level for literal years at the expense of keeping everyone isolated does not seem worth it. Then again, I am probably just a massive hypocrite who would change his opinion on a dime, if anyone I know was infected. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 00:14 on Apr 4, 2020 |
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Apr 4, 2020 00:03
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Mithaldu posted:Herd immunity is not viable with this. We'd be looking at 2.2 million dead germans in that case. This will not happen. Before the virus is on it's final way out, it will have infected half of the population. The current strategy of flattening the curve is just supposed to stretch that out over a bigger timeframe, so that there aren't 10 million sick Germans at the same time. Don't ask yourself if your grandma will get sick, it is a matter of when. As soon as a wave will seem over and there is the slightest bit of relaxation, it will come back hard with two weeks delay. Unless there is a fast vaccine, a Durchseuchungsgrad of over 25% is inevitable. No amount of masks could stop that. That would be 5% ~ 4 million severe cases. How many of those die depends on the medical capacity. We will not permanently defeat this virus by washing our hands, staying indoors and wearing masks forever. At the end of the day, herd immunity is the only option. Hopefully, a vaccine will arrive soon enough to reach herd immunity in a survivable timeline. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 00:32 on Apr 4, 2020 |
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Apr 4, 2020 00:29
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I'm actually looking for any semblance of good news which will keep me away from this depressive spiral. I am fairly confident about those statements, but I certainly don't want to be.  I really don't do well with isolation and feel dreadful today. I guess I should go to sleep. Good night.
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Apr 4, 2020 00:50
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I feel better today. That video of Mai was really interesting, even though it basically validated the doomsaying I was doing. But well, maybe there actually is a way to get the effective infectionrate to 1.1. That makes me less willing to go outside though. Even if you only meet a dozen people along the way it feels weird. On the bright side, there are quite a lot of MaiLab videos I need to catch up on. And she's a mother now. 
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Apr 4, 2020 10:38
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Went on my daily run. Met about 12 people total, no groups of three. Everyone was going out of the way and tilting the head away from me when I went past. People definitely take this stuff serious around here. Still barely any masks around. And honestly, I don't own one either. I sometimes use my scarf, but I can't breath right with that, making running futile. But I do try to cover my mouth when I am in a store.
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Apr 4, 2020 12:58
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Mithaldu posted:No loving wonder germany is having like 4000-6000 new cases PER DAY now. Those numbers are actually quite mild and reassuring. During the last few days there have been about 7000 cases a day. But that's not so bad. 7000 cases a day currently means a doubling rate of about two weeks, which is really good for a pandemic. On the other hand, the USA has had a doubling rate of two days lately. The measures are definitely working quite well.
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Apr 6, 2020 11:54
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Mithaldu posted:That's fair, the increases in cases seem to be holding steady. Tbh the thing that does reassure me more is how mild the death rates here look like. I'm just disappointed to see so many people not doing the very basics that could depress those numbers even more with very little effort. *Death is a form of recovery.
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Apr 6, 2020 12:36
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I mostly drink tap water. It's really good in Bonn. When I lived near Munich it tasted awful and it also turned out there were legionella in it.
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Apr 6, 2020 14:12
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Mithaldu posted:I thought tap water was safe everywhere in germany. That was a local problem in a lovely house with bad piping. Usually water is safe. But the stuff in Munich, or Cologne, tastes bad. To much calcium. Basically it's hard water, you need to carbonate in order to make it slightly less so. Around here, tap is drinkable as is. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 14:30 on Apr 6, 2020 |
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Apr 6, 2020 14:26
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Randler posted:Apparently it is 23 degree outside but I am feeling very cold. Is there hat a known sign of the rona? I feel similar today. It's not a fever though. In fact my temperature seems to be kinda low with 35.6C I spent 30 minutes outside moving the lawn today and it didn't change my temperature at all. Maybe the thermometer is broken or something. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 14:45 on Apr 6, 2020 |
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Apr 6, 2020 14:35
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Mithaldu posted:The gently caress? I am pretty sure I know what happened. For some reason Libluini put cola in a freezer and left it in there for way to long. When he opened the bottle, the contents instantly became a solid slab of cola-ice. So far I have done that myself. Now he considered how to quickly melt this ice and saw his oven. Since the ice would be quite porous, a frozen bottle of cola would built incredibly uneven pressure and heat, which makes it go boom. It might be even more effective with a microwave. You can try this at home, kids! cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 15:43 on Apr 6, 2020 |
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Apr 6, 2020 15:39
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Libluini posted:
One cola gazpacho, fresh from the oven!
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Apr 6, 2020 15:52
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Smirr posted:German salads, ranked: I was hellbent on nitpicking that, but it seems to fit. The best salad is arugula, roasted goat cheese, walnut, honey, balsamic. (grapes optional) I had that in a few German restaurants, but I guess it would be considered French cousine?
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Apr 6, 2020 23:11
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GhostDog posted:This all checks out. Though I do like me a Krautsalat from time to time. That's just an unfinished Döner. What's your guys opinion on rote Beete?
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Apr 6, 2020 23:44
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So either one is fine?
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Apr 8, 2020 09:56
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Went grocery shopping around 11. It was quick and fine. Had to wait for 3 people before me, because the edeka had a capacity of 40 people. There were 3 people at the register before me. All in all that trip was less than 15 minutes. Nothing empty except TP of course. And I was on a great hike in the Siebengebirge with a friend today. It was kinda full on top of the hill but people keep themselves separated from other groups of two. Everyone is following the orders well.
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Apr 11, 2020 17:00
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ephex posted:Except, you know, not doing hikes at all. This actually falls under "Erkundung der nahegelegenen Hügel" so it's even explicitly recommended by the DAV. Of course I would not go into some alpine no man's land where a broken leg would mean a transport via helicopter, or certain death. Also rock climbing is explicitly forbidden for that reason. But we didn't do that either. The chance for a medical emergency were not significantly higher than down the road from home. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 17:22 on Apr 11, 2020 |
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Apr 11, 2020 17:19
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Man, that speech bubble is superfluous.
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Apr 11, 2020 17:36
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Libluini posted:Sorry for the confusion, I consider 1,5% H-milk "normal" and the refrigerated version of the same thing is "fresh" in my mind, because get this, it's colder Yeah, no! That's wrong and you are a bad person. Regular milk is milk. H-milk is regular milk which was previously heated above 150 degrees Celsius. This makes it keep longer but makes it taste awful, because it also destroys vitamins and messes with the protein structure. Regular milk has to be stores in a fridge, H-milk doesn't. The way you talk about it, it sounds like you produce fresh milk by putting H-milk into a fridge. In case you are wondering, the H stands for Haltbar. And yes, obviously H-milk last longer, so it's easier to keep in a store, while fresh milk has to be tossed each week. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 18:01 on Apr 11, 2020 |
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Apr 11, 2020 17:58
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ABen posted:Yikes. Guess food safety methods were developed for a reason. Obviously, that is a fake study by big milk. Soon they will tell you that a mandatory vaccination against measles is okay. oliwan posted:yikes, adults who drink animal milk itt I don't really drink milk. But it's essential for certain baking recipes. Pancakes with plant milk are unfortunately strictly interior. And I tried that a few times. By the way, I don't like Oatly, because they have a super smug add campaign. "Like milk, but for people." cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 18:25 on Apr 11, 2020 |
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Apr 11, 2020 18:22
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GhostDog posted:I thought it was pretty much scientific fact that you shouldn't drink raw milk unless you absolutely have too. I'm pretty sure I read that the whole "pasteurization kills nutrients" thing is false as well. Yeah. Also, because if you go to the effort of cooking raw milk at home you are essentialy pasteurizating anyway. Except that professional pasteurization is heating it evenly for an incredibly short time. If you are doing that at home in a pot, it takes longer to reach the even heat and will actually kill more nutrients, while killing the germs less effectively. I bet a lot of people fear pasteurization, since it's such a technical term which they don't really understand. They should have called it something like Kurzerhitzung. But no, Monseiur Pasteur, needed to boost his ego. "It's okay to drink non-pasteurized milk, if you cook it first." is such a stupid take. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 18:40 on Apr 11, 2020 |
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Apr 11, 2020 18:30
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System Metternich posted:Pretty sure that the usual Milchkarton reads "pasteurisiert und ultrahocherhitzt" as if it were two different things though? Ultrahocherhitzen is what you are doing to turn delicious fresh milk into stale H-milk which wont rot for halt a year. Both terms are kinda stupid, because together they imply that pasteurization is some complicated science alchemy procedure to mess with mother nature. Duzzy Funlop posted:Your reasoning is completely fine, please don't feel like you need to justify yourself based on some bad-faith post. Fair point. I guess I should ignore the Berlin Ketamine-hipster. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 18:57 on Apr 11, 2020 |
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Apr 11, 2020 18:53
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GABA ghoul posted:Really like the asperger thread icon. Germany is basically culturally asperger It's culturally asparagus.
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Apr 11, 2020 19:25
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Honj Steak posted:Corona is no longer interesting enough when the Germany thread once again decides to debate the most fundamental of all philosophical questions: Is cow milk only for kids? Yeah, Corona is over haven't you heard? Everyone is healthy and the churches are open again. Recently we had a day with more healed individuals than new sick ones. Obviously, this means that the doubling rate is infinity, so everything's fine now.
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Apr 11, 2020 20:43
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Well, eating human is actively unhealthy, so that should hopefully nip that argument in the bud. Fake edit: Actually checking my sources, just like raw milk, human flesh seems to be fine, if you cook it first. Leave the brain though. Apparently, it's not worth it https://www.nationalgeographic.de/geschichte-und-kultur/2017/04/kannibalismus-studie-menschen-sind-nicht-sehr-nahrhaft
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Apr 11, 2020 20:54
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By the way, is there any kinda good vegan yoghurt? I really like to use almigurt for my muesli.
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Apr 11, 2020 22:15
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GABA ghoul posted:
Yeah, I also feel violently ill if I only get to eat 4 or five bars of chocolate.
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Apr 12, 2020 12:24
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So, now that corona is over, what are you guys planning to do? Soon we can finally continue licking the buttons of traffic lights. Joking aside, according to the RKI today is the first day that the total amount of infected Germans is only twice as large as the amount of healed persons. One in two corona patients, who was sick enough to get tested, is healthy again.
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Apr 12, 2020 18:06
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Ika posted:Not just here, today is also the first day in Austria with more recoveries than active cases. Technically, Germany would need to have had such a day at some recent point too. But since the recovery numbers are really vague it's hard to say when that was.
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Apr 12, 2020 18:46
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Randler posted:
Nah, he's not saying reopen everything NOW! This is saying that there need to be actual strategies if we are ever reopening things step by step. Seems reasonable to me. Bavaria should stay in a complete state of shutdown forever, though. Also, close the borders.
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Apr 12, 2020 19:06
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NRW goons.
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That poll is not so bad, if you exclude the votes from Bavaria.
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Apr 14, 2020 11:45
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Man, following the new corona numbers got boring. Just steady linear growth for weeks. I guess, that's a win in it's own way.
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Apr 14, 2020 19:47
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Sounds reasonable to me. Basically, Germany and France both lowered activities, once the apparent infections reached a certain amount. But Germany was testing more thoroughly, so we reached that number earlier and essentially stopped the economy at an earlier stage. Alternate explanations include the idea that Germans are a bit more stringent when it comes to following rules than other Europeans and the fact that we have already had a chance to see how bad it got in Italy. Of course, there might be 10.000 new infections and 20.000 new deaths tomorow, making such speculations pointless. Also I guess a large point is that Germany doesn't have any particular hotspots except Ginsberg and maybe Munich or Hamburg. If all infected Germans were safely concentrated in Munich it might be a bit hard to prevent infecting everyone there. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 21:21 on Apr 14, 2020 |
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Apr 14, 2020 21:17
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Mithaldu posted:I like the way FT shows the numbers of cases/deaths per day with rolling 7 day averages: Why is Austria lagging a week behind? It started there earlier than here. Of course the population is smaller, but taking a week longer to get 30 cases in one day implies a lack of testing. A week would multiply the cases by 8 at that point. Unless the infection started with literally one person that seems unlikely.
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Apr 14, 2020 21:28
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cases:
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Young children are rarely symptomatic and need to get out of the house to let the real people work. But yeah, the RKI is actively saying that the Grundschulen should stay closed, because kids are to dumb to keep a basic sense of hygiene.
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Apr 14, 2020 21:39
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Yes, despite what some people seem to believe, nobody is seriously suggesting that everything is done and that we should all celebrate with a centralised Fußballrudelschauen. It will happen in increments. And the morale boost of the existence of such increments outweighs the rare additional infections.
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Apr 14, 2020 21:47
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I disagree. A continuous linear growth of new cases over weeks implies stagnation of the active cases, which means that the medical resources stay at a constant usage level. Graphing infections on a lot scale makes a lot of sense, actually. A natural growth of a pandemic would be exponential. This would be a straight line. Once the curvature is growing less than that, we know that the growth rate is not exponential anymore. But to be honest, the best way to see this is to graph new cases as a function of total cases.
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Apr 14, 2020 22:09
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If you want to show a graph of new infections, a log scale is the only reasonable way, because in an uninhibited growth, this number would keep doubling and the early numbers would be unreadable. It doesn't matter if this goes over to the second or third derivative, since the curvature of these are pretty much identical in an exponential growth. As soon as any derivate starts to get negative, we can at least see that it stopped growing exponentially, which is the important mark. A lot graph turns this into passing a line. But I am speaking as a mathematician. Strictly speaking, since the total population is limited, with the right factors, a polynomial growth would be worse than an exponential one. Obviously, on that scale (1+10^(-10000))^x < x^(10000). That first term means 1,00000...0001 with 9999 zeros in between the ones. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 22:56 on Apr 14, 2020 |
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Apr 14, 2020 22:39
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ephex posted:This got posted by an verbeamtetet Lehrerin that I know : Force all parents into kurzarbeit. I mean it makes sense, if they don't need to pay for Kinderbetreuung anymore, they have the gap in money to spare. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 12:45 on Apr 15, 2020 |
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Apr 15, 2020 12:41
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Also, at the risk of sounding dismissive of the plight of parents, 14 uninterupted hours of watching a child each day seems excessive. Do these kids only get 2 waking hours without their parents continously staring at them? Surely, during that time there would be a moment to take out your phone and check your corona news.
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Apr 15, 2020 12:55
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